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Cargills (Ceylon) Plc Initiating with a Buy

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Cargills (Ceylon) Plc Initiating with a Buy EQUITY | SRI LANKA | FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING EARNINGS UPDATE |23 NOV 2018 CARGILLS (CEYLON) PLC INITIATING WITH A BUY 220.0 SPEARHEADING THE CONSUMER DRIVEN GROWTH STORY 2.7 10.0 200.0 Fair Value: FY19E - LKR 210.0 [+5%] FY20E LKR 240.0 [+20%] 180.0 Total Return with DPS: FY19E - 6% [AER 19%] FY20E - 24% [AER 18%] 160.0 During 2QFY19, CARG posted an earnings of LKR 476Mn, with a decline of 69%YoY relative to 200.0 200.0 140.0 LKR 1.6Bn made in 2QFY18, which includes a one off profit of LKR 1,010Mn made from the disposal of a property by its subsidiary Dawson Office Complex (Pvt) Ltd. during 2QFY18. 120.0 Excluding the gain, CARG’s normalized profits dipped by 9% in 2QFY19 vs the corresponding quarter. Dip in earnings was primarily owing to thinning GP margins from 12% in 2QFY18 to 100.0 Current FY19E 10% in 2QFY19 and increase in admin expenses by +9%YoY. We have derived an earnings outlook of LKR 2.4Bn (+12% recurring growth) and LKR 2.8Bn (+17%) for FY19E and FY20E with Current Price Expected Capital Gain Dividends upto 31.03.2019 a fair value of LKR 210.0 for FY19E and LKR 240.0 for FY20E providing an annualized return of FIRST CAPITAL RESEARCH 19% and 18% respectively. INITIATING WITH A BUY Hiruni Perera +94 11 263 9864 LKR (Mn) 2QFY18 2QFY19 YoY 1HFY18 1HFY19 YoY [email protected] Earnings (LKR 'Mn) Revenue 22,625 23,265 +3% 45,506 47,730 +5% Gross Profit 2,721 2,420 -11% 5,501 5,204 -5% EBIT 2,507 1,083 -57% 4,102 2,565 -37% KEY DATA PBT 2,124 755 -64% 3,367 1,924 -43% CSE Ticker CARG.N0000 Net Profit 1,535 476 -69% 2,286 1,232 -46% Bloomberg Ticker CARG SL Balance Sheet (LKR 'Mn) Share Price (LKR) 200.00 Shareholders' Equity 15,711 17,419 +11% 15,711 17,419 +11% 52w High (LKR) 209.90 Borrowings 15,740 15,044 -4% 15,740 15,044 -4% 52w Low (LKR) 184.20 NAVPS 70.1 68.0 -3% 70.1 68.0 -3% Avg. Daily Volume (Shares) 32,142 Avg. Daily Turnover (LKR) 6,449,213 9% YoY dip in recurring earnings in 2QFY19 Issued Share Capital (Shares 'Mn) 256 CARG’s topline grew marginally by +3% in 3QFY19 to LKR 23.2Bn while CoS increased at 5%, resulting in Market Cap (LKR 'Mn) 51,200 narrowed GP margins compared to the previous year. The declined earnings of the group was mainly attributable to the stagnant performance in the retail sector due to weaker consumer sentiment, which Market Cap (USD 'Mn) 288 generates more than 70% of the topline for the group. Further admin expenses of the group increased by *1 USD = LKR 178 9% YoY in 2QFY19 due to heavy investment in CARG’s retail sector during the year. Price Performance (%) 1 mth 3 mths 12mths Retail segment, operating profit dip by 70% YoY in 2QFY19, however performance is expected to improve CARG 0% -1% -2% in the mid to long term with its strong presence ASPI 3% -2% -8% Topline from the retail sector recorded a marginal growth of 3% YoY to LKR 18.0Bn while the operating profit declined by 70%YoY to LKR 229.0Mn resulting in EBIT margins shrinking to 1.26% in 2QFY19 from CARG vs ASPI 4.35% in 2QFY18. Despite an increase in footfall, the de-growth in the basket value— in real terms—mainly weighed down the performance of the sector. At present, CARG dominates the retail supermarkets with a 105.0 total stores of 363 and has significant presence in the rural areas (covering all 25 districts) compared to 103.0 other two players (Keells, Arpico) due to its relatively small store format size. Accordingly, CARG having 101.0 high presence outside Western province is expected to reap the benefit from the trend of rising household 99.0 income in semi-urban and rural areas in the mid to long term, thereby we expect its revenue from retail to 97.0 95.0 grow at a CAGR of 12% from FY18-FY21E. Having the highest number of Supermarkets Island wide, CARG's 93.0 future investments will be mostly spend on store upgrades driving new store growth and store re- 91.0 modelling. Accordingly, we have assumed a higher capex of LKR 5.4Bn for FY19E, assuming its expansion 89.0 plans in the pipeline (latest addition to its retail network is the one-of-a-kind Cargills food city specialty 87.0 outlet that will be opened at the Colombo City Centre in December 2018). FMCG segment to benefit from growing volumes ASPI CARG FMCG sector of the Group consists of manufacturing of Meats, Dairy, Agri foods and Confectionaries. The Source: CSE sector recorded an operating profit growth of 19%YoY amidst the topline growth of 4%YoY. Introduction of innovative products during the year under review, and thereby growth in volumes have helped to boost EBIT margins from the segment to 17% in 2QFY19 vis-a-vis 14% in 2QFY18. We expect FMCG sector revenue Minimum Return for BUY: to grow at a CAGR of 12% during FY18-FY21E in line with the upcoming festive season and expected increase Buy Below [AER of 17% with DPS]: LKR 201.0 in disposable income. CARG categorized as ‘Grade B’ counter (Refer page 08 for Recommendation criteria of Grade A, B & C Stocks) TP is at LKR 210.0 for FY19E-INIATING WITH A BUY Considering its much resilience to the market (CARG price has dropped by only 2%, when the ASPI has Disclosure on Shareholding: First Capital Group do not hold shares in CARG and will not declined by 8%) and its ability to position and capitalize on the SL food and beverage industry, we have trade in this share for three trading days following the derived the target price of LKR 210.0 for FY19E and LKR 240.0 for FY20E providing an annualized return of issue of this document. 19% and 18% respectively. INITIATING WITH A BUY “Spearheading the Consumer Driven Growth Story” Estimate Revision In LKR Mn 2019E - O 2019E - R % Change 2020E - O 2020E - R % Change Earnings Estimate Revenue N/A 100,349 - N/A 112,312 - Gross Profit N/A 11,038 - N/A 12,354 - EBIT N/A 5,017 - N/A 5,678 - Net Profit N/A 2,445 - N/A 2,856 - Adjusted EPS N/A 9.6 - N/A 11.2 - Growth YoY* N/A -24% - N/A 17% - Recurring Growth YoY* N/A 12% - N/A 17% - Balance Sheet Estimate Shareholders' Equity N/A 17,600 - N/A 19,085 - Borrowings N/A 14,163 - N/A 13,708 - Adjusted NAVPS N/A 68.7 - N/A 74.6 - Ratio Estimate ROE (%) N/A 14.4% N/A 15.6% PER (x) N/A 20.9 N/A 17.9 PBV (x) N/A 2.9 N/A 2.7 *Note-Earnings of FY18E includes a non-recurring profit of LKR 1.0Bn made from the disposal of a property by its subsidiary Dawson Office Complex (Pvt) Ltd. during 2QFY18. Therefore recurring EPS growth in FY19E is 12%YoY. Valuation Table P/E 31st March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Estimates (LKR 'Mn) Revenue 61,631 71,017 84,191 91,293 100,349 112,312 127,949 Gross Profit 5,647 7,979 10,049 10,574 11,038 12,354 14,074 Operating Profit 1,572 3,463 5,091 6,263 5,017 5,678 6,543 Net Profit 576 1,624 2,140 3,201 2,445 2,856 3,384 Adjusted EPS (LKR) 2.3 6.3 8.4 12.5 9.6 11.2 13.2 YoY Growth (%)* -10% 182% 32% 50% -24% 17% 18% Recurring YoY Growth (%)* -10% 182% 32% 2% 12% 17% 18% Valuations PER (x) 88.9x 31.5x 23.9x 16.0x 20.9x 17.9x 15.1x PBV (x) 4.1x 3.6x 3.7x 3.1x 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x DY (%) 1.0% 1.8% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7% 3.2% Valuation Summary Expected CARG price for FY19E Return PER Valuation based target price 204.4 Target Price 210.0 DCF Valuation based target price 233.4 Current Price 200.0 Average Target Price 218.9 Capital Gain (LKR) 10.0 Liquidity Discount (5%) 10.9 Dividends upto 31.03.2019 (LKR) 2.7 Target Price after discount 208.0 Capital Gain % 5% Target Price after Rounding off 210.0 Dividend Yield % 1% Total Return % 6% Annualized Return % 19% 2 “Spearheading the Consumer Driven Growth Story” Discounted Cash flow Valuation DCF Based Valuation Enterprise Value 72,628 Debt(-) 14,163 Cash (+) 1,290 Total Value of Equity 59,755 No of Shares (Mn) 256 Target Price 233.4 COE WACC Rf 9.5% Ke 17.1% Rm 17.5% Kd 8.0% Growth % 3.0% D/E Assumption 30/70 β 0.95 Terminal Growth 3.0% Ke=Rf+β(Rm-Rf) 17.1% WACC 14.3% PER Valuation 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 - 16 18 20 22 24 Price Source: CSE, Company Annual Reports and First Capital Research Estimates PER based Valuation FY19E Earnings (LKR 'Mn) 2,445 No. of Shares (Mn) 256 FY19E EPS 9.6 Expected PER 21x Price at 21x FY19E Earnings 204 3 “Spearheading the Consumer Driven Growth Story” Appendix I: Statement of Income & Expenses Profit & Loss Statement (LKR Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E P/E 31st March Revenue 61,631 71,017 84,191 91,293 100,349 112,312 127,949 Cost of sales -55,984 -63,038 -74,142 -80,719 -89,311 -99,958 -113,875 Gross Profit 5,647 7,979 10,049 10,574 11,038 12,354 14,074 Other income 1,427 1,535 1,689 3,037 2,007 2,246 2,559 Distribution expenses -2,041 -2,305 -2,332 -2,825 -3,010 -3,369 -3,838 Administrative expenses -2,896 -3,347 -3,860 -4,020 -4,466 -4,998 -5,694 Other Expenses -566 -397 -455 -504 -552 -555 -558 Operating profit (EBIT) 1,572 3,463 5,091 6,263 5,017 5,678 6,543 Equity accounted investees -0 -26 22 212 255 306 306 Changes in fair value of investment property 65 53 166 77 120 186 288 Net finance cost -832 -604 -1,125 -1,307 -1,412 -1,520 -1,629 Profit before income tax 805 2,886 4,154 5,245 3,979 4,649 5,507 Income tax expense -557 -1,195 -1,870 -1,914 -1,433 -1,674 -1,983 Profit for the year from continuing operations 247 1,691 2,284 3,331 2,547 2,975 3,525 Profit from discontinued operations 353 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit for the year 600 1,691 2,284 3,331 2,547 2,975 3,525 Equity shareholders of the parent 576 1,624 2,140 3,201 2,445 2,856 3,384 Non-controlling interest 24 67 144 130 102 119 141 Adjusted EPS 2.3 6.3 8.4 12.5 9.6 11.2 13.2 Source : Company Annual Reports and First Capital Research Estimates 4 “Spearheading the Consumer Driven Growth Story” Appendix II: Statement of Financial
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