BBC Sport: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Analysis Tottenham Hotspur
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Carteret Analytics Research Paper Published: 16 December 2020 Matthew Belford - Director, Carteret Group Jack Morris - Corporate Analyst, Carteret Group James Powell - CEO, Carteret Group BBC Sport: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Analysis Tottenham Hotspur How important is he to Spurs in 2020/21? Matthew Belford 1, Jack Morris 2, James Powell3 1. A little bit of science… A number of the quantitative and data analysis terms in this Research Paper are explained in more detail in the G lossary at Section 8. At Carteret Analytics we have developed the quantitative analysis utilised to good effect in investment banking for trading strategy, portfolio optimisation, derivatives pricing and hedging, and risk management by our sister corporate finance firm, Carteret Capital - and applied it to football. In particular, our work provides an objective measure of how good a football player really is - removing all the subjective noise and opinions. An integral part of the analysis is to calculate a Carteret Rating for every football player, which rates and values a player’s contribution to his team winning football matches. It is incredibly accurate at predicting a player’s capabilities. Indeed, we always start with the premise that a professional football club’s primary objective is to win matches - and therefore the more a player contributes to his team winning matches, the better the player. Another important element of the analysis in this Research Paper is the Carteret Match Impact (CMI) measure. This measure is highlighted in Section 3 of this Research Paper, and it is particularly instructive in helping us understand the objective contribution each player has made, in a specific match, to the team achieving the match outcome. 2. How does Højbjerg rank against other Spurs midfielders? The table at E xhibit 1 (below) provides the following insights: ● Højbjerg’s Carteret Rating of 209.6 for the 2020/21 season (so far) indicates that his objective performance levels for Spurs are significantly higher (in terms of his contribution to Spurs winning matches) then his midfield team-mates. 1 Matthew Belford, Director, Carteret Group, London. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected] 2 Jack Morris, Corporate Analyst, Carteret Group, London. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected] 3 James Powell, Chief Executive Officer, Carteret Group, London. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected] This document is strictly private and confidential, subject to contract and for general information purposes only. No warranty is provided with regard to its content, and Carteret Analytics assumes no liability whatsoever for its content. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or an invitation or a solicitation to enter into any transaction. The reader should always seek independent and professional advice on any corporate transaction. Carteret Analytics Limited, 85 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7NQ. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected]. 1 / Carteret Analytics Research Paper - BBC Sport: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Analysis 16 December 2020 ● Indeed, Højbjerg’s performance levels are 15.0% higher than the next best Spurs midfielder (H arry Winks with a Carteret Rating of 182.2), and a substantial 28.1% higher than the third best Spurs midfielder (M oussa Sissoko with 1 63.6) . ● Dele Alli is the worst performing Spurs midfielder so far in the 2020/21 season with a Carteret Rating of 125.8, and it is difficult to know whether this supports Mourinho’s apparent reticence to play him, or it is as a result of that apparent reticence? ● However, when you consider the Overall Carteret Ratings for the players - which measures their objective performance levels over an extended period of three seasons (plus the current season) - Dele Alli is the best performing Spurs midfielder with a Rating of 210.7 compared to 198.2 for Højbjerg. Indeed, Højbjerg’s Carteret Rating of 209.6 this season (so far), is still below Dele Alli’s Overall Carteret Rating of 210.7. Exhibit 1: Objective performance indicators for Spur’s six current central midfielders Carteret Rating Total Minutes Combined Overall Carteret Player Age Season Appearances CRCI (Season by Played Minutes Rating Season) 2020/21 16 1261 8447 0.21 208.9 198.2 2019/20 33 2751 188.1 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 25 2018/19 31 2764 220.3 2017/18 23 1671 170.2 2020/21 6 228 8547 0.21 128.8 210.7 2019/20 32 2376 201.2 Dele Alli 24 2018/19 33 2544 206.1 2017/18 41 3399 226.4 2020/21 13 939 8119 0.22 164.9 179.8 2019/20 32 2376 190.7 Moussa Sissoko 31 2018/19 39 3067 187.4 2017/18 39 1737 159.7 2020/21 14 729 7773 0.23 143.2 125.7 2019/20 27 1350 164.6 Tanguy Ndombele 23 2018/19 42 3330 123.2 2017/18 32 2364 101.6 2020/21 9 676 6813 0.32 173.3 184.7 2019/20 36 2671 189.9 Harry Winks 24 2018/19 36 2268 182.9 2017/18 21 1198 182.7 2020/21 13 550 6541 0.38 161.5 160.6 2019/20 33 1821 163.4 Giovani Lo Celso 24 2018/19 32 2401 189.5 2017/18 33 1769 118.3 Source: Carteret Analytics, London 3. Match by match impact on Spurs’ performances The Carteret Match Impact (CMI) is a proprietary and objective measure of each player’s contribution to the overall team performance in each individual match. The chart at Exhibit 2 (below) illustrates Højbjerg’s objective contribution in every Premier League match for Spurs this season (as at 16 This document is strictly private and confidential, subject to contract and for general information purposes only. No warranty is provided with regard to its content, and Carteret Analytics assumes no liability whatsoever for its content. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or an invitation or a solicitation to enter into any transaction. The reader should always seek independent and professional advice on any corporate transaction. Carteret Analytics Limited, 85 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7NQ. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected]. 2 / Carteret Analytics Research Paper - BBC Sport: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Analysis 16 December 2020 December 2020), compared to the average performance level of every Spurs midfielder in each of those matches. The chart indicates: ● Højbjerg has consistently outperformed all of his midfield team-mates - in every match so far this season, save for the match against Manchester City. ● The victory against Manchester City is possibly the most notable result of the season so far for Spurs, and it is interesting that this was the match in which Højbjerg had his weakest performance (relative to other Spurs midfielders). ● It is also noteworthy that Højbjerg has appeared to perform well against ‘weaker’ opposition (in terms of their Premier League positions), or in matches where Spurs have drawn with their opponents (e.g. N ewcastle United and C helsea) . Exhibit 2: Chart comparing Højbjerg’s performance impact, in each EPL match this season (to date), to other Spurs midfielders Source: Carteret Analytics, London 4. Attribute Analysis Both of the charts at Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 (below) provide an illustration of the objective success of each of the Spurs midfielders, in different matchplay Attributes (see the Glossary at Section 8 for an explanation of each of the attributes). This document is strictly private and confidential, subject to contract and for general information purposes only. No warranty is provided with regard to its content, and Carteret Analytics assumes no liability whatsoever for its content. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or an invitation or a solicitation to enter into any transaction. The reader should always seek independent and professional advice on any corporate transaction. Carteret Analytics Limited, 85 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7NQ. T: +44 20 3876 2414. E: [email protected]. 3 / Carteret Analytics Research Paper - BBC Sport: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Analysis 16 December 2020 Exhibit 3: Radar chart comparing H øjbjerg’s performance attributes to the other five current Spurs midfielders Source: Carteret Analytics, London The radar chart at E xhibit 3 (above) provides some useful insights: ● Højbjerg is the best Spurs midfielder in the O ffensive a nd G ame Control a ttributes. ● This indicates that Højbjerg is particularly effective at creating positive outcomes from matchplay transitions (from defence to attack); and is excellent at controlling the game to preserve an in-match position and increase the probability of an optimal match outcome/result. ● These Offensive and Game Control attributes are, arguably, the attributes that are most-prized by José Mourinho - producing the best success rate from counter-attacking play (O ffensive) , and preserving a match-leading position (G ame Control) . ● Indeed, Højbjerg is in the top 25th percentile of all Premier League midfielders for his Offensive and G ame Control attributes. ● It should also be noted that Højbjerg is significantly above the Premier League average for midfielders in the Defensive attribute. Again, this is something that will suit the perceived strategic and tactical playing objectives of José Mourinho. ● It is also interesting to note from the radar chart that Harry Winks has very similar matchplay attributes as Højbjerg in terms of Offensive, Defensive and Game Control play - with broadly similar (although slightly lower) levels of success (in terms of the contribution to Spurs winning matches). ● However, Harry Winks is significantly more successful than Højbjerg in the Game Changer attribute. This suggests that Winks is far more effective than Højbjerg at transforming a match, either from a no-score or score-draw position. ● There has been much discussion recently in the media about whether or not Winks is currently ‘in favour’ with Mourinho, but the objective insights in this Section show that Winks could do a comparative job to Højbjerg in transitioning and controlling a match and is significantly better than H øjbjerg at changing a match outcome.