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ANTICIPATING CHANGE: Multi-Tier Framework for a Sustainable Energy Transition

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ANTICIPATING CHANGE: Multi-Tier Framework for a Sustainable Energy Transition SIT Graduate Institute/SIT Study Abroad SIT Digital Collections Capstone Collection SIT Graduate Institute August 2021 ANTICIPATING CHANGE: Multi-tier Framework for a Sustainable Energy Transition Francesca Cresta Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcollections.sit.edu/capstones Part of the Development Studies Commons, Energy Policy Commons, Environmental Policy Commons, Environmental Studies Commons, Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, Social Influence and oliticalP Communication Commons, and the Social Justice Commons Recommended Citation Cresta, F. (2021). ANTICIPATING CHANGE: Multi-tier Framework for a Sustainable Energy Transition. This Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by the SIT Graduate Institute at SIT Digital Collections. It has been accepted for inclusion in Capstone Collection by an authorized administrator of SIT Digital Collections. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ANTICIPATING CHANGE: Multi-tier Framework for a Sustainable Energy Transition Francesca Cresta A capstone paper submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Master of Arts in Climate Change and Global Sustainability at SIT Graduate Institute, USA August 9, 2021 Advisor: Rim Berahab, Policy Center for the New South, Morocco CONSENT TO USE STATEMENT I hereby grant permission for World Learning to publish my capstone on its websites and in any of its digital/electronic collections, and to reproduce and transmit my CAPSTONE ELECTRONICALLY. I understand that World Learning’s websites and digital collections are publicly available via the Internet. I agree that World Learning is NOT responsible for any unauthorized use of my capstone by any third party who might access it on the Internet or otherwise. Student Name: Francesca Cresta Date: August 9, 2021 Acknowledgements This work could have never been completed without the support of many important people met along the way. Many thanks to Rim Berahab (Policy Center for the New South) for her encouragement and support, for always giving me great advice and understanding when I was unsure of something before I even mentioned it (shukran, Rim!). Thank you to my parents that always support me and my decisions and have taught me to believe in myself. Thank you to my colleagues in the program that have been teachers, family, and friends, all at once. Being far from home and overcoming hurdles is easier when you have the right company. Thank you to Dr. Xavier Silva that quickly adapted to the many changes and managed to always keep smiling. I am grateful for everyone that helped me and stayed close to me through this year, in this or other projects, that made me grow and understand the world better. From the Arctic to the Tropics, many of the people I met all gave me one of the pieces to build what would become a comprehensive work, that encapsulates many of the things I care the most about. ii “Quando un giorno da un malchiuso portone tra gli alberi di una corte ci si mostrano i gialli dei limoni; e il gelo dei cuore si sfa, e in petto ci scrosciano le loro canzoni le trombe d'oro della solarità.” Eugenio Montale, I limoni, Ossi di seppia (Torino, Piero Gobetti Editore 1925) iii Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.1. The idea of sustainability and the importance of energy production .......................... 2 1.2. Objective and structure................................................................................................ 6 1.3. Literature review ......................................................................................................... 7 1.4. Energy production and the transition ........................................................................ 13 2. Methods ............................................................................................................................ 15 2.1. Gathering of data ....................................................................................................... 15 2.2. Indicators ................................................................................................................... 16 2.3. Limits of the approach............................................................................................... 18 3. The framework ................................................................................................................. 20 3.1. Dimensions and variables.......................................................................................... 20 3.1.1. Institutional dimension....................................................................................... 24 3.1.2. Environmental dimension .................................................................................. 26 3.1.3. Social dimension ................................................................................................ 28 3.1.4. Economic dimension .......................................................................................... 29 3.1.5. Technical dimension .......................................................................................... 30 3.2. Presentation & Communication ................................................................................ 31 3.3. Case studies ............................................................................................................... 32 3.3.1. Morocco ............................................................................................................. 33 3.3.2. Italy .................................................................................................................... 37 3.3.3. Comparison of critical areas and recommendations .......................................... 42 3.3.4. Other examples of application: Brazil, China, Kenya, and the United States. .. 46 4. Conclusion & Discussion ................................................................................................. 49 5. Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 56 6. Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 70 6.1. Annex I Table of application of the framework – Morocco ..................................... 70 6.2. Annex II Table of application of the framework – Italy ........................................... 71 iv Abstract Transitioning the Energy Sector from fossil fuels to renewable energy is perhaps the biggest opportunity to sustainably mitigate climate change. This paper presents a multi-tier holistic framework to score and visually represent the key features of sustainability that could influence the long-term success of the energy transition in different social, ecological, and economic contexts. The framework is applied in detail to Morocco and Italy. The complexity of the concept of sustainability calls for a tool that can help stakeholders locate and address priority areas. Five dimensions of sustainability have been described: institutional, environmental, social, economic, and technical. These are divided into variables and scored via indicators. To ensure the accessibility and credibility of results, all selected indicators were sourced from public and widely available data. The resulting framework can be adapted to different situations and scales to support management choices. To the author’s knowledge, previous studies have either dealt with sustainability in broader terms or analyzed only one specific dimension of it. This study considers sustainability as a foundation to enable a fair and efficient transition to renewable energy, analyzing important interactions between sustainability dimensions. Main reflections found in this study include a) measuring sustainability in all its dimensions is crucial to set priorities; b) transversal and intersectoral approaches will gain relevance due to the interconnections between elements of sustainability; c) communication, and awareness are crucial to increase bottom-up participation to the energy transition both for climate change mitigation and adaptation. 1 1. Introduction 1.1. The idea of sustainability and the importance of energy production The world is undergoing an era of change. The increase in greenhouse gasses (GHG) that has occurred starting with the industrial revolution in the 1800s is unprecedented, reaching 125 ppm1 (+145 %) above pre-industrial levels (NOAA, 2020; EEA, 2021). On July 12, 2021, the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii registered 416.72 ppm of CO22, a number that keeps increasing, with the last decade presenting the highest averages in the past 800,000 years (NOAA NCEI, n.d.). Scientists have modelled the effects of the concentration of GHG on the atmosphere, finding that it will hold in increasing amounts of energy, causing changes to the climate that will affect ecosystems (loss of biodiversity, ocean acidification…), societies (food insecurity, extreme weather events…), and economies (loss of ecosystem services, financial insecurity…) (Benestad, 2017; Ledley et al, 1999; UNFCCC, 2015). By 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be between 540 and 970 ppm depending on the SRES (Special Report on
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