DISTRICT OF OAK BAY SPEED LIMIT REVIEW

OCTOBER 2016 Blank District of Oak Bay Speed Limit Review

DISTRICT OF OAK BAY SPEED LIMIT REVIEW

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Over time, the District of Oak Bay has seen the introduction of a rather large number of speed zones ranging from 20 km/h to the municipal standard limit of 50 km/h. It is known that driver compliance to these speed zones is often poor. As well, there is a concern that many different speed zones may be confusing to drivers, particularly for drivers from elsewhere in the region or tourists. Adept Transportation Solutions was retained to review available research, practices elsewhere, and conditions in Oak Bay and to make recommendations for a systematic process for determining a speed limit for a particular street.

A review of the literature and current practice shows a pervasive view that most drivers are cautious and competent. It has become a norm that the speed not exceeded by 85% of drivers is a reasonable speed. The very low accident rates experienced on most streets attests to this idea. The research also suggests, however, that some drivers may misjudge their abilities or may not be aware of all of the hazards facing them. Regulating speeds through set speed limits and enforcement is an attempt to provide additional information to a prudent driver.

The District has obtained speed information over many years and many locations so that a comprehensive understanding of driver behaviour can be had. In Oak Bay compliance to speed limits is generally very good with some streets, typically with high traffic volumes, good sight distances and relatively wide travel lanes having speeds somewhat over the posted limits. Streets that are posted 40 km/h or less often have poor compliance. This reinforces the notion that speed is more a function of drivers’ perceptions of safety rather than the posted limit.

Current procedures for setting speed limits were reviewed and the Transportation Association of Canada approach has been recommended as it is supported by research and practice is widely used across Canada and provides consistent results using available data. The procedure suggests that speed zones should be consistent with as little change as possible so that they are easy to understand. Short streets are not posted as actual speeds are usually very low.

A consultation process was undertaken and input from 197 residents was obtained. There was broad support for lower speed limits on local streets. Limits on collectors and arterials attracted starkly opposing views with some wanting speed limits as low as 30 km/h on streets such as Oak Bay Avenue and Cadboro Bay Road and some wanting 50 km/h everywhere or at least on major roads.

After excluding streets less than 500 metres in length, suggested speed limits were developed for 55 streets using the TAC computer model. A summary of the overall conclusions is:

 Major arterial roads, particularly with bus routes, should be posted 50 km/h.

Page i  Posting speed limits on arterial roads higher than local roads should provide for better transit productivity, reductions in greenhouse gas production and will attract traffic from parallel local streets, which is desirable.

It is recommended that residential and collector roads in Oak Bay be designated 40 km/h. It is also recommended that most major arterials be posted at 50 km/h. School and playgrounds should be signed in accordance TAC guidelines. Recommended speed zones determined by the TAC procedure are shown on Page 22.

Over time, residents may wish to have changes made to speed limits. It is recommended that such requests be evaluated by the Engineering Department using the TAC procedure. A summary of the analysis would be provided to the requestors explaining the reasons for the decision. In the case where residents are not satisfied, their recourse is to approach Council.

It is further recommended that any changes made to speed limits be reviewed after one year and reviewed again every five years thereafter.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ...... i

Introduction ...... 2

Policy and Planning Context ...... 2

Understanding Speed Limits Theory and Practice ...... 6

Types of Speed Limits ...... 6

Literature Review ...... 7

Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits ...... 9

Procedures for Setting Speed Limits ...... 11

Transportation Association of Canada (TAC) ...... 11

Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) ...... 11

Ministère des Transports, Quebec ...... 12

Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (MOTI)...... 12

City of Vancouver ...... 13

Warrant Systems ...... 13

Stakeholder Consultation ...... 13

Oak Bay Fire ...... 13

Oak Bay Police ...... 14

BC Transit ...... 14

ICBC and Crash History...... 15

District of Saanich ...... 15

City of Victoria...... 15

Public Consultation ...... 16

Speeds on Oak Bay Streets Today ...... 17

How Speed is Measured ...... 17

Speed Behaviour in Oak Bay ...... 19

Page iii

Determination of Appropriate speed Limits ...... 19

Speed Limits and Traffic Diversion ...... 23

Review of Selected Locations ...... 26

Options ...... 28

Option 1 – Status Quo ...... 28

Option 2 – Neighbourhood Speed Zone ...... 28

Option 3 – Transportation Association of Canada Guideline ...... 28

Option 4 – Statutory Limits ...... 29

Option 5 – District-Wide Speed Zone ...... 29

Policy For Reviewing Speed Limits ...... 29

Conclusions ...... 30

Recommendations ...... 32

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INTRODUCTION

Over time, the District of Oak Bay has seen the introduction of a rather large number of speed zones ranging from 20 km/h to the municipal standard limit of 50 km/h. Often, these variations in speed zones have been driven by citizen concerns and have been changed as a result of the political process as opposed to engineering principles. There is a concern that many different speed zones may be confusing to drivers, particularly for drivers from elsewhere in the region or tourists. Adept Transportation Solutions was retained to review available research, practices elsewhere, conditions in Oak Bay and to make recommendations for a systematic process for determining appropriate speed limits for a particular street. Recommendations are also to be made regarding a complaint driven process whereby speed limits may be reviewed. This study begins with a review of current literature on the subject and a description of practice in other municipalities. Key stakeholders including Oak Bay Police, Oak Bay Fire, ICBC, District of Saanich, City of Victoria and BC Transit were consulted. Current driver behaviour was then analysed based on a large number of speed measurements done by Oak Bay and supplemented by Adept. General conclusions can be drawn and are discussed in subsequent sections. Finally, input from the community was sought and documented in the report What We Heard and summarized in this report.

POLICY AND PLANNING CONTEXT

OFFICIAL COMMUNITY PLAN

Four types of roads within Oak Bay are designated in Schedule C of the Official Community Plan (OCP) and which can be found in Appendix A and described as follows: Arterial roads are the largest that occur in Oak Bay. These connect the major activity centres and carry large volumes of traffic entering and leaving Oak Bay. Collector roads are the next level of road. The name derives from the fact that they collect traffic from the local roads and channel it to the arterials. This type of road may still maintain characteristics of a local road. In established communities such as Oak Bay, collectors are designated based on historical use. Special roads do not fit easily into any categories because they perform a number of roles. In addition to being important vehicle routes, they have other functions that may be environmental or recreational. Beach Drive is an example. Local roads are the most common roads within Oak Bay. Their primary purpose is to provide access to properties that directly abut them. A key goal of the Official Community Plan (OCP) is to enhance active transportation and transit. Policies include development of Complete Streets and enhancing safety through adoption of Universal Design principles and improving sidewalks, cycling infrastructure and transit. An important objective is to: Address the safety of the road network through management of speed and road improvements (p.138).

2 | P a g e OAK BAY ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

The District has prepared an active transportation plan. The plan recognizes that levels of cycling and walking are Figure 1: Active Transportation Map among the highest in Canada and reflect the many advantages that Oak Bay has. While it does not address speed directly, it does propose a number of improvements to the system of sidewalks, trails and cycling facilities. Many of the improvements are shown on the map (Figure 1). Many of the streets that have higher accident rates and also higher speeds are included in the plan. In some cases it may be possible to design the road to reduce speeds while implementing a new sidewalk or bike lane project. For example, speeds are relatively high on Cedar Hill Cross Road because it is wide, straight and has good sight lines. The plan proposes installation of a cycle track or multi use trail on one side of the road. This could be done in such a way that traffic calming benefits would accrue.

TRANSIT FUTURE PLAN

BC Transit has prepared a long term plan for transit service in the region. Two areas of the plan relate to this issue of speed limits. There is a proposed rapid bus line (and eventually a possible LRT connection) between downtown Victoria and the University of Victoria (UVic). The service could be on Shelbourne Street or on Foul Bay/Henderson Roads. If it were to be on Foul Bay/Henderson, there would be the possibility of redesigning the road to achieve improvements for cyclists and pedestrians. These two roads have relatively higher speeds and the accident rate on Foul Bay Road, while modest, is high relative to most other streets in Oak Bay.

The second issue involves speed limits and transit operating costs. It is BC Transit’s policy to abide by local traffic rules. A reduction in speed limits will mean an increase in travel times for transit. The reduction is less if on short road segments, roads with many stop lights or on routes with heavy loadings and corresponding increases in loading and unloading times. Since the transit budget is fixed lower speeds means a reduction in service. A 40 km/h limit over a significant part of the network may reduce productivity by 10 to 15%. (Figure 2), from the Transit Future Plan shows the effect of speed on cost.

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Figure 2: Impact of Speed on Transit Service

Existing transit routes within Oak Bay are depicted in Figure 3: Existing Transit Routes Figure 3, and are listed as follows:

 Foul Bay Road / Henderson Road;  Cadboro Bay Road;  Uplands Road;  Cotswold Road;  Midland Road;  Beach Drive (N);  McNeill Avenue;  Victoria Avenue;  Windsor Road;  Newport Avenue;  Central Avenue; and,  Oak Bay Avenue

CRD REGIONAL PEDESTRIAN AND CYCLING MASTER PLAN (PCMP)

As seen in Figure 4 below, the PCMP proposes cycling facilities on a number of roads in Oak Bay including Oak Bay Avenue, Foul Bay Road, Lansdowne Road, Beach Drive, McNeill Avenue, Henderson Road, Cedar Hill Cross Road and others. There has been an emerging view, as expressed in the plan, that simple bike lanes are not adequate to meet municipal objectives and that protected facilities such as buffered bike lanes and cycle tracks are needed. Over time, as these facilities are constructed, there may be opportunities to manage speed on those roads. Strategies could include physically or visually narrowing the roadway with painted buffers or cycle tracks. Reducing vehicle travel lane widths has been shown to reduce driving speeds.

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Figure 4: PCMP Recommended Facilities

SUMMARY OF CURRENT PLANNING AND POLICY DOCUMENTS

One of the most critical goals of a municipal Council is the provision of a safe network of streets. A perception of safety for cyclists and pedestrians will encourage these modes and will contribute to related objectives of improved health and reduced greenhouse gas production. There are three elements in road safety: education, engineering and enforcement. A coherent system of speed limits facilitates education and enforcement. To this end, an evidence based procedure to establish optimum speed limits is needed.

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UNDERSTANDING SPEED LIMITS THEORY AND PRACTICE

TYPES OF SPEED LIMITS

Key considerations when setting speed are aimed at balancing mobility, safety and the environment.

Speed limits in British Columbia are under the purview of the Provincial Government. The Provincial Motor Vehicle Act has set statutory limits of 50 km/h in urban areas and 80 km/h in rural areas; these limits apply unless the road is signed with another speed limit. This means that any street in Oak Bay that does not have a speed zone sign is a 50 km/h speed zone by default. The Province has granted to municipalities the right to set other speed limits but these variations must be posted.

The legislation also allows for school zones and playground zones which are 30 km/h and which apply for specific times of the day.

Advisory signs are also used to warn of particular hazards such as a sharp curve or limited sight distance. These are on a yellow background and may end with a five rather than a zero to help distinguish them from regulatory signs.

Speed zone signs are common in Canada and in most populated places around the world. There are varying approaches that have been developed which involve designing the street in a way that encourages safe and courteous use. The Woonerf is an example of such a design. The street is shared by motorists, cyclists and pedestrians. There are no road markings or traffic signs giving any mode priority. As a result each person must be aware of the other users. In practice these streets are often calm and safe with motorists usually travelling at very low speeds.

There are also many examples of traffic calmed streets in Oak Bay and the Capital region. In these cases the street is built to ensure slower moving traffic and improved safety though engineering solutions such as raised crosswalks, speed humps, curb extensions, narrow travel lanes and so on. As with the Woonerf, speed limits may not be necessary because the road design ensures appropriate speeds.

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LITERATURE REVIEW

To better understand methods for establishing speed limits, an extensive literature review was undertaken as part of this study.

NOVA SCOTIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE

In 2013 a comprehensive study of low posted speed limits was prepared for the Province of Nova Scotia by Dillon Consulting.1 The project included a survey of Canadian Municipalities with a more detailed analysis of several municipalities. Some of the findings are summarized here:

Montreal experimented with lowering speed limits within 19 neighborhoods. Collectors, arterials and streets with bus routes were left at 50 km/h while local streets were lowered to 40 km/h. Overall speeds were reduced from 41 km/h to 39 km/h which was not considered significant. Enforcement was minimal and no issues such as diversion were encountered. Data did not allow the determination of changes to speed differentials. Despite to lack of measurable success, the experiment was considered a success by the communities.

Edmonton had a pilot project where speeds were reduced to 40 km/h in six communities that expressed support by 67% of those voting. The project included extensive communication and enforcement including by photo radar. No differences were found in tailgating or in collisions although the period of study was rather short. Overall speeds were reduced by seven percent. However, in several communities where speeds were reduced slightly, the 85th percentile was still well over 50 km/h. Operating speeds decreased from 60 to 57 km/h in new communities, 55 to 53 km/h in communities with grid streets and 53 to 51 km/h in older communities. At the end of the pilot three communities kept 40 km/h limits and three reverted to 50 km/h.

Stratford, a suburb of Charlottetown, is an amalgamation of villages. Roads are rural in nature with gravel shoulders and drainage ditches. There are few clues to tell drivers that the roads serve a more urban purpose. In an attempt to promote active transportation some roads, including higher order roads, were posted at 30 km/h. Follow up studies have shown that the 85th percentile speed exceeds the limit by 20 km/h. Compliance is very low.

When Ottawa amalgamated it absorbed a number of communities that had widely varying speed limits. The City developed a warrant system based on work done by the University of Illinois which appears to be similar to TAC. There are two warrants shown in Appendix C . Interestingly, most of the streets that had limits lowered from 50 km/h to 40 km/h experienced an increase in overall speed.

In 2012 the City of Winnipeg investigated the possibility of reducing speeds on some streets from 50 to 40 km/h. After receiving a report from their Administration, they chose not to lower speed limits. Speed limits on the highways of Manitoba, including in the City of Winnipeg, are set by The Highway Traffic Board of Manitoba which is appointed by the Provincial Government. When a speed limit change on a City street has been requested or a speed limit is proposed on a newly constructed street, it is the practice of the Public Works

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Department to provide the Standing Policy Committee on Infrastructure Renewal and Public Works, being the City’s Traffic Authority, comprised of a Committee of elected officials appointed by Council, with an evaluation of such a request/proposal, including the results of a speed study on the street and a comparison of the collision rate thereon with other streets of similar characteristics, and an assessment of the traffic operating conditions on a newly constructed street. With such information, the Committee is better informed to decide whether the Public Works Department should be authorized to apply to The Highway Traffic Board of Manitoba for the requested speed limit change or for a proposed speed limit on a newly constructed street.

The Public Works Department’s recommendation to the Standing Policy Committee on Infrastructure Renewal and Public Works for speed limits is based on the measured 85th percentile speed of traffic on the street, being the speed at or below which 85% of motorists operate their vehicle, provided that the collision rate is within acceptable limits. Such a criterion recognizes that the majority of motorists operate their vehicle in a reasonable and prudent manner with due consideration for conditions encountered, including activity into and out of intersecting public streets and approaches, as well as the presence of pedestrians and bicyclists on or near the roadway.2

MOTI RURAL HIGHWAY SAFETY AND SPEED REVIEW

The BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (MOTI) published a study in 2014 proposing changes to some speed limits on rural highways.3 The report is based on the premise that speed limits should be near the 85th percentile of actual speeds unless crash rates suggest that a lower rate is necessary. In light of falling accident rates across the province a number of roads have had speed limits raised.

THE IMPACT OF LOWERED SPEED IN URBAN AND METROPOLITAN AREAS

There was a widespread reduction of speed limits, from 60 to 50 km/h, in Australia in recent years. This change sparked research which has been summarized by J. Archer et al.4 A number of studies were summarised in the report, which support findings from North America, namely, that reductions in speed yield reduce crash numbers and severity. A study by Kloeden suggests that the probability of a crash increases sharply with speeds over the mean speed (Figure 5). This study examined injury accidents on 60 km/h road and based the estimate of speed on crash reconstruction. Figure 5 Australian and European studies suggesting that accidents increase with speed differentials corroborate research from North America. Harkey calculated that the minimum risk of a crash occurs when the driver is at the 90th percentile speed.5 Scully found that crashed involving pedestrians increase in severity sharply from 10 km/h and that crashes resulting in

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fatalities increase sharply from 35 km/h.6 The effectiveness of speed management was described in a number of projects. Typically when speed limits are reduced there is a broad campaign of education, promotion and enforcement. Enforcement by photo radar was found to be effective; Elvik showed a 17% reduction in crashes in a European study with the use of photo radar.7

METHODS AND PRACTICES FOR SETTING SPEED LIMITS

This report by the US Federal Highway Administration and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) describes a number of approached to setting speed zones including:8

 Engineering approach: A two-step process where a base speed limit is set, usually according to the 85th percentile speed, the design speed for the road, or other criterion. This base speed limit is adjusted according to traffic and infrastructure conditions such as pedestrian use, median presence, etc. (The TAC procedure common in Canada is and Engineering –Road Risk approach. The analysis starts with a speed limit based on road function and land use and then makes adjustments for risk factors.)  Expert system approach: Speed limits are set by a computer program that uses knowledge and inference procedures that simulate the judgment and behavior of speed limit experts. Typically, this system contains a knowledge base containing accumulated knowledge and experience, and a set of rules for applying the knowledge to each particular situation (the inference procedure).  Optimization: Setting speed limits to minimize the total societal costs of transport. Travel time, vehicle operating costs, road crashes, traffic noise, and air pollution are considered in the determination of optimal speed limits.  Injury minimization or safe system approach: Speed limits are set according to the crash types that are likely to occur, the impact forces that result, and the human body’s tolerance to withstand these forces.

Engineering systems are used in North America. These would include the TAC and ITE procedure. Results have been tested by research and their broad application. Warrant systems can also be described as an Engineering approach. They can be systematic and include several design and safety factors. The Expert system is developing. It requires extensive data input, much of which is unavailable in most municipalities. Results have not been widely tested. The optimization approach been tried in New Jersey but requires data not available in most situations. It appears to be more applicable to highway applications. Further, results have not been verified in practice. There is an emerging use of injury minimization techniques developing in Quebec, Sweden and Australia. Existing speeds and behaviour are not criteria in this approach. Speeds are set so that when a crash occurs, there is little likelihood of serious injury. As a result speed limits of about 30 km/h would be set for local streets. It should be noted that the injury minimization process relies on significant enforcement including photo radar.

The report includes detailed analyses of the effect of speed and speed deviation on crashes. While the idea that differential speeds lead to crashes is supported, the number of crashes for slow drivers remains a question with little evidence supporting that conclusion in recent studies.

The Transportation Association of Canada (TAC) has summarized international experience.9 Australia has developed software called X-Limits to determine speed limits. It has been in place for 25 years and has allowed consistency and a high level of compliance throughout Australia. New Zealand has

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established a national guideline. Speed limits are generally based on land use. Default speeds are 50 km/h in urban areas and 100 km/h on rural roads. On most rural roads it is not possible to drive safely at 100 km/h so that the speed is left to the driver’s judgement. The United Kingdom has published a national guideline with the stated purpose of having consistency across the country. Speed limits are designed so that they are essentially self-enforcing.

THE RELATION BETWEEN SPEED AND CRASHES Figure 6 The SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands published research by Kloeden in 2012.10 Previous research has suggested that drivers going faster or slower than the mean traffic speed were at risk. This new research suggests that there may have been errors in that work. More sophisticated research techniques seem to show that drivers going faster than average are at higher risk but the slow drivers are not. It is possible however that slow drivers may contribute to accidents as the speed differential increases the number of conflicts.

THE EFFECT OF SPEED ON GREENHOUSE GAS PRODUCTION

As discussed previously, the effect of speed limit changes on actual speeds, whether positive or negative, is not expected to be large. This is because most drivers attend to existing conditions rather than posted speed limits when selecting a speed to drive. Nevertheless, there is a relationship between speed and fuel economy and therefore GHG production as shown in the graph from Natural Resources Canada11. The optimum speed for minimum emissions is about 70 km/h. Efficiency at 30 or 40 km/h is likely further reduced because of the need for frequent braking to maintain the slower speed. GHG production would be Figure 7 reduced by increasing speed limits on collectors and arterials although the change would be rather small, probably only one or two percent better. The increase in GHG’s for those local streets where recommended limits change from 50 to 40 km/h would be even smaller as local streets are typically short. Acceleration and deceleration effects are relatively large and would tend to minimize the effect of top speed and fuel efficiency.

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PROCEDURES FOR SETTING SPEED LIMITS

TRANSPORTATION ASSOCIATION OF CANADA (TAC)

In December 2009, TAC published the Canadian Guidelines for Establishing Posted Speed Limits. The TAC procedure was the result of a national collaboration of transportation practitioners published in 2009. The methodology has been tested across Canada with results found to be consistent and repeatable. The procedure is based on an assessment of risks for a particular street. Risks considered include:

 Horizontal geometry  Vertical geometry  Road width  Roadside hazards  Pedestrian exposure  Cyclist exposure  Pavement surface condition  Intersection density  Private access density  Interchange density  On-street parking

The calculations are performed in an Excel spreadsheet provided by TAC.

INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERS (ITE)

In 2012 ITE published a major study of issues and practices involving speed limits. It discusses a variety of approaches to setting limits. The report presents the results of research on safety factors affected by speed. They divide engineering approaches into two classes: the operating speed method and the road risk method. TAC is an operating speed method. The road risk method is similar but does not use the 85th percentile. Expected speeds depending on the function of and land use around a road (minor urban collectors 60 km/h and local roads 50 km/h for example). The speed limit is then determined by adjusting the expected speed up or down after considering risk factors such as geometry, number of access and the presence of pedestrians and cyclists. ITE does not prescribe a particular method but describes critical variables that need to be considered and presents a wealth of related information such as how to conduct speed studies and best practices in enforcement. General Guidelines The following guidelines have been presented to provide a consistent basis for the application of engineering principles to speed zoning. 1. Speed zones shall only be established on the basis of an engineering study. Each speed zone should be periodically restudied to determine that the established speed limit is appropriate. The suggested maximum interval is five years. In addition, an engineering study should be conducted whenever there is a change in the roadway that would affect the prevailing speed.

11 | P a g e Such changes would include elimination of parking, added lanes, signal coordination, and changes in roadside development. 2. The engineering study shall include an analysis of the current speed distribution of free- flowing vehicles. The speed limit within a speed zone shall be set at the nearest 10 km/h increment to the 85th percentile speed or the upper limit of the 20 km/h pace. No speed zone shall be established in a location where the 85th percentile speed is within +/- 5 km/h of the statutory speed limit. The existing speed limit within a speed zone shall not be changed if the 85th percentile speed is within +/- 5 km/h of the posted speed limit. 3. The engineering study may include other factors such as: a. Geometric features including: vertical and horizontal alignment, and sight distance; b. Roadside development; c. Road and shoulder surface characteristics; d. Pedestrian and bicycle activity; e. Speed limits on adjoining highway segments: f. Accident experience or potential. However, in no case should the speed limit be set below the 67th percentile speed of free flowing vehicles. 4. Speed zones should not be used to warn motorists of hazardous conditions. If a hazardous condition exists within the road segment under study, this condition should be corrected or an appropriate warning sign in conjunction with an advisory speed plate should be posted. 5. Enforcement of speed limits within speed zones should be uniform. Efforts should be made to coordinate the implementation of speed zones and the enforcement policies with the governing enforcement agency.

MINISTÈRE DES TRANSPORTS, QUEBEC

The Province of Quebec has developed a manual that governs the setting of speed limits for municipalities12. It is similar to a warrant system in that a number of criteria are considered including road function (local, collector, and arterial), number of lanes, road width, vertical curves, sight lines, traffic volume, parking and number of access points. The operating speed is not a specific determinant except that if the recommended speed limit is different from actual speeds the Municipality must consider other measures. The purpose of this system is to manage the trade-off between safety and mobility and to ensure consistency between jurisdictions. While this approach has led to consistency across jurisdictions, the data suggests that compliance is very low.

MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE (MOTI)

The Ministry has adopted a procedure for setting speed limits which is in accordance with the ITE guideline. The process involves determining the 85th percentile speed, conducting a crash study and considering road geometry and adjacent land uses. Recently, MoTI has made adjustments to some highway speed limits, raising them in all cases.

12 | P a g e CITY OF VANCOUVER

In Vancouver, the speed limit on Hastings Street between Abbott Street and Jackson Avenue was lowered to 30 km/h in 2011 after a string of pedestrian deaths. Streets designated as bike routes also carry a 30 km/h speed limit. All other streets are officially 50 km/h zones, but it is not uncommon to see drivers at their discretion driving 30-40 km/h in residential streets due to the limited visibility from the number of parked cars and trees. When residents complain, staff will review the area and if necessary conduct a safety review (high level) to determine if a traffic calming study is required.

WARRANT SYSTEMS

A number of cities in Canada have adopted warrant systems for establishing speed zones and some examples are included in Appendix B.

STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION

Adept met with both Oak Bay Fire and Police representatives to discuss any areas within the district that may be problematic from their perspective. The following is a summary of these discussions:

OAK BAY FIRE

The department has twenty-six members, two engines, a ladder truck and a light response vehicle. Their role in accident response is as a first responder, hazardous material clean up and clearing debris. They do not have traffic safety programs per se but would be interested in cross promotion with the Oak Bay police fleet (e.g. back to school, winter driving, distracted driving). Because they respond to the more serious incidents only, they have a good intuitive feel for problem locations where fatalities, rollovers and similar events have occurred. Some specific comments are:

 There have been two fatalities and several rollovers on Windsor Road in Chief Corkle’s time in the department. It may be that the long, clear stretch on Winsor before a four way stop surprises some drivers. Windsor is a rather wide, open street.  High crash locations along Beach Drive seem to be at destinations such as the Oak Bay Marina. It may be that tourists, unfamiliar with the road are a contributing factor. Generally there are not many crashes along this road.  Foul Bay Road generates a lot of complaints. Part of the problem is drivers crossing at stop controlled intersections.  Cadboro Bay Road seems to have a higher crash rate perhaps simply related to high traffic volume.  There are a number of streets that attract shortcutting. Granite Street is an example where drivers might be avoiding alternate routes, such as Oak Bay Avenue which had lower posted limits. In any event, short cutting traffic seems to have higher speeds.  The speed limit review process would benefit from involving Fire in any final recommendations.

13 | P a g e OAK BAY POLICE The Oak Bay Police Department has 26 members and operates seven vehicles from one station. They do not have a Traffic Division but assign traffic duties to all members who work them into their daily tasks. They second one member to the regional Integrated Road Safety Unit (IRSU) with Victoria, Saanich and others. This unit conducts programs in Oak Bay. They also carry out monthly programs of enforcement and education based on the B.C. Association of Police Chiefs suggestions. In August there is an emphasis on distracted drivers for example. IRSU and participating members in broader enforcement programs across the province should lead to improved effectiveness according to research. Enforcement is generally complaint driven. Oak Bay Police contract some crash analysis to Saanich Police. Chief Brinton believes that we should use the ICBC data set as it is likely more complete than police records. There are many incidents which are not reportable to police and to which Oak Bay Police do not attend but which would be reported to ICBC. In general, Oak Bay is small enough that the members have a very good intuitive idea of where enforcement is required and which locations are problematic. They regularly concentrate on school zones. Crashes in Oak Bay are mostly at intersections rather than single vehicle or off road crashes. While speed may be a contributing factor, underlying causes of most serious crashes are the result of conflicts (turning, t-bone, sideswipe). The number of rear-end crashes could be investigated as speed and speed differential may be contributing factors. A number of specific locations were discussed (Windsor Road, Granite Street, Henderson Road). As with Fire, involving Oak Bay Police in reviewing preliminary conclusions of the speed limit review would be worthwhile. The challenges of enforcement on smaller, residential streets were discussed. In many locations there is limited room to set up and local conditions mean that speeding sufficient to earn a ticket is unlikely, leading to poor labour productivity. Oak Bay’s experience reflects findings in the literature search. Even on arterials and collector roads, speeding is sufficiently rare that enforcement is a very costly exercise. Traffic fines do not cover the cost of enforcement. Increased enforcement would be a direct cost to the taxpayer. In summary, Oak Bay’s experience reflects findings in the literature. Enforcement is expensive, but effectiveness is increased though broader campaigns and focusing on specific trouble spots.

BC TRANSIT BC Transit’s view of speed limits was discussed with James Wadsworth, a senior planner with that organization. They have considered the matter in conjunction with the City of Victoria’s recent reduction of speed limits on arterial roads. In summary, it is BC Transit’s policy to comply with traffic regulations. A reduction in speed limits will mean an increase in travel times for transit buses. The reduction is less if on short road segments, roads with many stop lights or on routes with heavy loadings and corresponding increases in boarding and alighting times. Mr. Wadsworth cited one route where the reduced speed limit resulted in a reduction from 41 to 35 daily trips for that particular route. Since their budget is fixed, lower speeds means a reduction in service. A 40 km/h limit may reduce productivity by 10 to 15%.

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In the event that speed limits on bus routes are changed, BC Transit requests the opportunity to discuss the matter and see if other solutions might be possible.

ICBC AND CRASH HISTORY Figure 8: Casualty Crash Location 2009 - 2013 ICBC provides a map of Crash Statistics on their website.13 The map currently shows crash statistics for a 5 year period (2009 – 2013). The precise cause of the claim is not detailed; however, the map does show both Property Damage Only (PDO) and Casualty claims. PDO claims are crashes resulting in material damage and no injury or fatality. Casualty crashes are crashes resulting in injury or fatality.

Between 2009 and 2013, the intersections showing the highest number of claims are Cadboro Bay / Fort Street / Foul Bay Road (70). This is followed by Foul Bay Road / Lansdowne Road (61), Foul Bay Road / Oak Bay Avenue (55). By comparison, within the City of Victoria, the highest number of crashes reported on the map is 312 at Hillside Avenue / Shelbourne Street. In the District of Saanich, there are approximately 20 intersections showing 100 crashes or more.

DISTRICT OF SAANICH The District provided the following in response to our query regarding policy for establishing speed limits: The District of Saanich follows the Motor Vehicle Act Section 146 which sets the speed limit in all municipalities at 50 km/h except in special cases such as school or playground zones. Although we have reduced speed limits on some streets, these changes have been implemented due to unique conditions (geographical, physical, visual). We do not arbitrarily reduce the speed limits on one particular street in the absence of any clear reason for doing so.

CITY OF VICTORIA The City of Victoria is a main advocate for reducing the statutory speed limits on urban roads from 50km/h down to 40km/h. Victoria has done several speed studies recently and Victoria Council has changed some arterial roads to 40 km/h. Nevertheless, the City’s normal practice is to set speed limits in accordance with the ITE guideline. Staff have experimented with the Quebec procedure.

15 | P a g e PUBLIC CONSULTATION

As part of this study, it was important to consult with the local residents to garner input into current issues and concerns related to speed limits in Oak Bay. The consultation was expected to shed light on public support for any changes to speed limit policy. This was achieved by several methods. Sounding Boards were posted at three locations in Oak Bay. The Sounding Boards were set up at Henderson Recreation Centre, Monterey Recreation Centre and Oak Bay Recreation Centre. The boards were placed in a conspicuous location and offered the opportunity for residents to leave comments on sticky notes.

The District developed a webpage with a description of the project. The web page went online on September 9, 2015 and ran until October 13, 2015. The webpage also included a link to an online questionnaire as well as an email link to afford an opportunity to provide feedback. An article was placed in the Oak Bay News Gazette on September 14, 2015 informing the public that the study was underway and provided links to an online survey and the [email protected] email address. The online news article also provided an opportunity to leave comments regarding the article. A public Open House was held on October 21, 2015. District staff and consultant team were available to discuss options and a feedback form was also available for residents to fill out. Feedback was obtained from 197 individuals and is summarized in the report What We Heard.

16 | P a g e SPEEDS ON OAK BAY STREETS TODAY

Speed and traffic volume data are collected routinely by the District through seven-day automatic counts. Information was available for over fifty locations. Nine other locations were studied to ensure that all areas of Oak Bay and all types of streets were covered.

HOW SPEED IS MEASURED

th Two measures of speed are important: the 85 Percentile and the Pace.

The 85th percentile is the speed at or below which 85% of all vehicles are observed to travel under free flowing conditions and is usually considered the maximum speed of prudent drivers. It is believed by many that Figure 9 a majority of drivers are competent and cautious so the 85th percentile can be seen as reasonable (Figure 9).

Pace measures the difference in speeds, specifically the difference between the 85th and 15th percentile. If speeds driven vary, there will be more passing and more conflict so one would expect more accidents. Research suggests that one is safest when driving at the 90th percentile (Figure 10). Figure 10 Accident severity increases with speed. Accident frequency increases with speed and speed differential but it is difficult to separate the effect of each.

Experience tells us that most drivers do not attend to speed limits but rather drive at a speed that they consider reasonable. The photographs below show four different streets along with measured speed. A narrow, curving street may have a 50 km/h speed limit, but most drivers will drive much slower. By contrast, a street with wide lanes, good sight distances and no curves will have higher speeds, often higher even than the speed limit. This is the reason that speed zones often have relatively little impact on actual speed.

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Estevan Avenue Lansdowne Road

Narrow street with parking and a curve Wider street, straight, good visibility and no 85th percentile is 32 km/h parking 85th percentile is 46 km/h

Studies have consistently shown that when speed limits are raised or lowered by 10 km/h, actual speed changes by about 2 km/h. For example, when the speed limit was 50 km/h on Granite Street, 85% of drivers drove 40.5 km/h or less. The speed limit was reduced to 40 km/h in 2014 and actuals speeds increased to 42 km/h.

85th Percentile is 32 km/h 85th P

Beach Drive Cadboro Bay Road

Narrow street with parking and a curve Wide street, straight, good visibility and no 85th Percentile is 36 km/h parking 85th Percentile is 55 km/h

85th Percentile is 36 km/h

18 | P a g e SPEED BEHAVIOUR IN OAK BAY

Driving speeds have been recorded for a seven day periods at well over 100 locations around Oak Bay. Figure 11 Speeds and compliance to speed zones varies depending on location. Generally speaking, compliance is better on 50 km/h streets. Compliance is not as good on wider streets with good visibility and few curves or hills. Narrow lanes and on street parking contributes to better compliance. Appendix A shows the current speed zones on Oak Bay roads and locations where speeds have been measure and includes the 85th percentile speed. Data points shown have been measured over the past five years. Locations in red have poor compliance (less than 40 percent and more than 5 km/h). Locations with compliance between 40 and 75 percent are shown in yellow. Good compliance is shown in green (p. 35).

DETERMINATION OF APPROPRIATE SPEED LIMITS

ANALYSIS

The District has maintained a database of actual driving speeds on Oak Bay roads dating back to 2006. Generally, the data was obtained as a result of resident complaints and where specific engineering studies were undertaken. The historical count data was filtered and the data used in the analysis covered the previous 5 year period and is shown in Table 1.

Adept reviewed this data and determined where additional speed data was required for this study. As a result, new speed data was obtained at 10 locations in the District. The speed counts included 24 hour speed and volume counts over a full week period. The data was analyzed to determine the 85th Percentile driving speeds as well as compliance.

1. 2291 Cedar Hill Cross Road 2. 3385 Midland Road 3. 2126 Granite Road 4. 3285 Cadboro Bat Road 5. 2765 Lansdowne Road 6. 3045 Uplands Road 7. 2587 Beach Drive 8. 2530 Bowker Avenue 9. 2325 Cranmore Road 10. 2122 McNeil Avenue

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Table 1: Oak Bay Traffic Speed Data

Summary of Oak Bay Speed Studies 2009 to 2014Speed Volume Limit Street Number Year (vpd) 85th Percentile (kph) Compliance Beach 685 2009 2663 42 50 86% Beach 1069 2014 7133 43 40 55% Beach 1580 2013 3263 36 40 84% Beach 3595 2014 1955 50 50 91% Beach 60 2013 1603 51 50 70% Bowker 2580 2015 2394 47 50 95% Cadboro Bay 2171 2012 7005 48 40 32% Cadboro Bay 2276 2011 6511 43 40 50% Cadboro Bay 3285 2015 7311 57 50 62% Cadboro Bay 3465 2014 6656 55 50 33% Cadboro Bay 3615 2013 5874 54 40 8% Cedar Hill Cross 2291 2015 5230 44 50 97% Central 2131 2014 1009 40 50 98% Central 2319 2009 1105 41 30 19% Cranmore 2325 2015 3252 47 50 97% Dufferin 2828 2012 192 36 50 99% Elgin 1745 2013 893 34 50 100% Estevan 2417 2014 725 35 50 100% Falkland 682 2014 371 40 50 95% Florence 2399 2012 397 44 50 89% Foul Bay 960 2012 6137 47 30 4% Foul Bay 2597 2013 11099 54 50 49% Foul Bay 2981 2010 8695 54 50 42% Fredrick Norris 2053 2009 459 43 50 90% Granite 1388 2012 1805 36 50 97% Granite 2126 2009 1251 40 50 97% Granite 2126 2009 1365 41 50 97% Granite 2126 2015 1608 42 40 89% Granite 2149 2012 1372 40 50 97% Hampshire 1367 2014 1803 35 50 97% Hampshire 1597 2013 2292 42 40 61% Hampshire 1882 2014 1295 43 40 46% Hampshire 1936 2012 1288 38 40 82% Haultain 2028 2013 8376 35 50 100% Henderson 3372 2013 7249 50 40 17% Henderson 3493 2013 7621 48 40 26% Lansdowne 2150 2009 6278 55 50 37% Lansdowne 2341 2014 7190 48 50 82% McNeil 2122 2015 5290 44 40 48% Midlands 3385 2015 339 41 50 90% Midowne 2300 2013 296 40 50 97% Milton 2075 2013 810 40 50 97% Monterey 1199 2014 1629 39 50 98% Musgrave 2390 2011 1755 39 30 24% Musgrave 2594 2011 865 39 40 79% Newport 1250 2010 3071 50 40 25% Newton 2171 2009 491 40 50 98% Oak Bay 2314 2013 4855 45 40 36% Orchard 2630 2013 217 32 50 97% Pacific 2255 2009 140 34 50 99% Prospect 1542 2013 705 33 30 52% Prospect 1621 2013 518 31 30 62% St. Ann 1736 2009 2091 42 40 52% Thompson 2740 2010 1814 47 40 38% Transit 1036 2013 818 33 30 42% Uplands 3045 2015 375 40 50 98% Victoria 1075 2014 869 35 50 100% Victoria 1250 2009 1704 42 50 93% Victoria 2013 1382 41 50 96% Victoria Aug 857 2014 844 41 50 96% Victoria May 857 2014 955 36 50 99% Windsor 2281 2009 1710 42 50 93% Windsor 2327 2013 1209 42 50 94%

20 | P a g e RECOMMENDED PROCEDURE

Based on the literature review, the TAC procedure was recommended for Oak Bay. It is the most widely used system in Canada and is based on extensive research and practice. Data requirements are reasonable and consistent results are generated.

WARRANT APPLICATION The TAC warrant procedure was completed on 55 road segments in Oak Bay, including a mix of Arterial, Collector, Local and Special Roads. In order to ensure consistencies in speed zones, roads entering the District from the neighbouring jurisdictions of Saanich and Victoria were also identified.

The basic criterion used in the warrant analysis included the selection of road links over 500m in length. Links shorter than 500m do not typically require speed limits as it is generally not feasible to accelerate and decelerate at high rates of speed. Along the road sections evaluated, longer road segments were divided where significant differences in roadside characteristics were apparent.

The following Table 2 shows the results of the warrant procedure for each road segment evaluated. Detailed warrant sheets can be found in a separate document.

The key risk factors leading to these results are the availability of on-street parking, number of intersecting roads and density of driveways.

As can be seen in the table, the majority of roads that were studied warrant a 40 km/h speed limit. The exceptions are the Arterial Roads (Foul Bay, Henderson, Cedar Hill) and Lansdowne Road, which is classified as a Collector Road. One section of Beach Drive warrants a 50 km/h speed limit. This is the section through the golf course, where there is little side friction from driveways and intersecting roads.

Although the warrant procedure generates a recommended speed limit, localized sections may require advisory speed zones where conditions warrant.

Table 2: TAC Warrant Results

21 | P a g e Table 2: Oak Bay Speed Zone Data & TAC Warrant Procedure Results

Studied Sreet Name Road Classification Current Speed Zone Limit Warrant Result

Yes Allenby St Local Not Posted 40 Yes Beach Dr A Collector 50 40 Yes Beach Dr B Special 40 40 Yes Beach Dr C Special 40 50 Yes Beach Dr D Special 40 40 Yes Beach Dr E Special 50 40 Yes Cadboro Bay Rd A Arterial 40 50 Yes Cadboro Bay Rd B Arterial 50 50 Yes Cadboro Bay Rd C Arterial 50 50 Yes Cardiff Pl Local 50 40 Yes Cedar Hill Cross Rd Arterial 50 50 Yes Central Ave Local 30 School Zone / 50 40 Yes Cranmore Rd Local 50 40 Yes Currie Rd Local 30 40 Yes Dalhousie St Local 50 40 Yes Dufferin Ave Local 50 40 Yes Dunlevy St Local 50 40 Yes Eastdowne Rd Collector 40 40 Yes Estevan Ave Local Not Posted 40 Yes Exeter Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Foul Bay Rd A Arterial 30 50 Yes Foul Bay Rd B Arterial 50 50 Yes Granite St Local 40 40 Yes Hampshire Rd Local 50 / 40 / 30 40 Yes Henderson Rd A Local Not Posted 40 Yes Henderson Rd B Arterial 40 50 Yes Island Rd Local 30 40 Yes King George Ter Special 30 40 Yes Lansdowne Rd Collector 50 50 Yes Linkleas Ave Local Not Posted 40 Yes McNeill Ave Collector 40 40 Yes Mid Downe Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Monterey Ave Local 30 40 Yes Musgrave St Collector / Local 30 / 50 40 Yes Neil St Local Not Posted 40 Yes Newport Ave Collector 40 / 35 40 Yes Norfolk Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Nottingham Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Oak Bay Ave Collector / Special 40 40 Yes Oliver St Local Not Posted 40 Yes Ripon Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes St David St Local Not Posted 40 Yes St Patrick St Collector Not Posted 40 Yes Thompson Ave Collector 40 40 Yes Transit Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Uplands Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Upper Terrace Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Victoria Ave Collector / Local Not Posted 40 Yes Weald Rd Local Not Posted 40 Yes Windsor Rd Collector Not Posted 40

The warrant results were compared to available information on 85th percentile speed data which was used to aid in determining the appropriateness of the warrant results.

22 | P a g e SPEED LIMITS AND TRAFFIC DIVERSION

Most drivers select the route with the shortest travel time. Since posted speed limits affect trip time so changing the speed limit may result in traffic being redistributed over the road network. Lowering posted speed limits on urban arterial and collector streets may result in some traffic being diverted to parallel local streets. Desirable outcomes would be increased safety for drivers, cyclists and pedestrians on major streets. Undesirable outcomes would be the potential for increased traffic on local streets. Increasing posted speed limits on urban arterials and collectors may result in increased traffic due to trips being attracted from parallel arterials and collectors. Desirable outcomes would include easing of congestion on parallel streets and attracting traffic off of local streets. However increased traffic on these arterials and collectors would have implications for road cross sections, intersection design (i.e. turn lane lengths) and signal timings.

Adept applied the CRD Regional Travel Demand Model to estimate the potential network impacts of changing posted speed limits on Oak Bay’s major arterial roads. The Model will assign trips for all purposes to the network based on the shortest paths, in terms of time, between origins and destinations. These times are calculated according to number of lanes on road segments, congestion levels, turn delays and posted speed limits. Thus changing posted speed limits has the potential to increase or decrease trip times between origins and destinations, and consequently for some trips to take alternate paths. While the CRD Model is an appropriate tool to estimate traffic diversions due to changes to posted speed limits, it most likely will overstate these changes because changes in actual speeds will usually be less than the change in the posted speed.

23 | P a g e To adapt the Regional Travel Demand Model for application to Oak Bay, Adept went through the following steps:  Compared model link volumes with actual traffic counts to determine if the difference between the two were within in reason. The small number of cases where the differences were unacceptable were found to be due to incorrect model speed limits on the relevant links, or to inaccurate placement of centroid connectors. Centroid connectors link the model network which mostly just consists of collector and arterial streets to model Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), and as such must be a reliable reflection of the local road networks.  Reviewed model posted speed limits on network links for agreement with actual posted speed limits. For streets without posted speed limits but were required for network analysis, the 85th percentile speed was used.  Added local streets not part of the Regional Travel Demand Model but necessary for a realistic assessment of the road network impacts for Oak Bay. Model traffic assignments for the AM (8 to 9 AM) and PM (4 to 5 PM) peak hours were run after network revisions. Further revisions and runs were undertaken until model link volumes were reasonably close to actual volumes from traffic counts. AM and PM Peak Hour assignments were run based on the finalized road network with changes to posted speed limits on Cadboro Bay Road. Current posted speed limits are 40 km/h from Foul Bay Road to Pacific, and 50 km/h from Pacific to Cedar Hill Road. Two scenarios were assessed:  Cadboro Bay Road with posted speed limit of 40 km/h from Foul Bay Road to Cedar Hill Road  Cadboro Bay Road with posted speed limit of 50 km/h from Foul Bay Road to Cedar Hill Road The following Figures 12 - 15 show the potential impact of speed changes along particular routes. In this example, tests were run for different speed zones including a 40 km/h speed limit versus a 50 km/h speed limit along Cadboro Bay Road – between Foul Bay Road and Cedar Hill Road. The red lines indicate where traffic could be diverted from and the green indicates additional traffic volumes along a particular road. This assumes 100% compliance to the posted speed limit. The results show that a posted speed limit of 40 km/h on Cadboro Bay Road from Foul Bay Road to Cedar Hill Cross Road has the potential to add traffic on Eastdowne Road and Beach Drive. A posted speed limit of 50 km/h on Cadboro Bay Road from Foul Bay Road to Cedar Hill Cross Road has the potential to add traffic on Cadboro Bay Road and reduces traffic on Eastdowne Road which would seem to be a desirable planning goal. The traffic mode shows that congestion levels on Cadboro Bay Road do not increase significantly with the additions to peak traffic.

24 | P a g e Figure 12: AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Difference with Cadboro Bay Road 40 km/h

Figure 13: PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Difference with Cadboro Bay Road 40 km/h

25 | P a g e Figure 14: AM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Difference with Cadboro Bay Road 50 km/h

Figure 15: PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Difference with Cadboro Bay Road 50 km/h

REVIEW OF SELECTED LOCATIONS During the review a number of streets were analysed and the following suggestions are made:

26 | P a g e  Newport Avenue should be posted at 40 km/h in keeping with the ITE guideline that states that the speed limit within a speed zone shall be set at the nearest 10 km/h increment to the 85th percentile speed or the upper limit of the 20 km/h pace.  Central Avenue is posted 30 km/h with a sign tab reading “Buses Only”. This may be confusing, particularly through the School Zone. These 30 km/h signs should be removed or replaced with a 40 km/h speed limit sign so as to emphasize the 30 km/h school zone. BC Transit should be advised that buses should not exceed 30 km/h along this road.  Monterey Avenue has narrow sections and historical speed data shows the 85th percentile speed at or below 40 km/h with the lowest being 36 km/h. Similar to Central Avenue, the regulatory 30 km/h signs should be removed or replaced with 40 km/h signs to emphasize the 30 km/h school zone.  Hampshire Road has a fairly consistent cross section between Central Avenue and Oak Bay Avenue. The section between Central Avenue and McNeill Avenue is posted 30 km/h for no apparent reason. With many roads in this portion of Oak Bay being similar in nature regarding geometry and operating speeds, consideration should be given to removing the 30 km/h signs to minimize driver confusion.  To the north, Hampshire Road is posted at 30 km/h between Bowker Avenue and Dufferin Avenue. There are also School Zone signs with regulatory 30 km/h speed limit tabs. The historical speed data shows the 85th percentile speed approaching 40 km/h. Similar to Central Avenue, the regulatory 30 km/h signs should be removed or replaced with 40 km/h signs to emphasize the 30 km/h school zone. North of Thompson Avenue the speed zone is posted 50 km/h. This may actually encourage higher speeds and should be removed or replaced with 40 km/h speed zone signs.  McNeill Avenue runs parallel to Oak Bay Avenue and is fairly wide and straight between Foul Bay Road and Transit Road. Anecdotal information suggests the some drivers are using this street to avoid Oak Bay Avenue, where more delay is encountered due to the presence of traffic signals and several crosswalks. It is desirable to maintain a 40 km/h speed zone along this road. Some blocks along McNeil Avenue do not have a speed zone sign posted which may result in lower compliance. Additional signage could be considered in the short-term. In the longer term, the recommendation within the Active Transportation Strategy to install Sharrow paint markings main also improve compliance to the speed limit by messaging drivers that this road is a bicycle route and the likelihood of encountering cyclists along the roadway is high. In our experience, many drivers avoid the markings, which can subliminally result in a perception that the travel lane is narrower, resulting in reduced travel speeds.  On Monterey Avenue, north of Oak Bay Avenue, there is a Playground sign approaching the Bowker Creek Park walkway in the northbound direction only. The speed sign tabs are not the correct application and should be changed to a standard time of day tab and placed in both directions if warranted. Due to the horizontal curves along this same segment, it may be more appropriate to add speed limit tabs to the advisory curve signs. This would require further analysis.  Thompson Avenue is a straight road section and exhibits poor compliance to the existing 40 km/h speed zone. Physical features to reduce speeds may be appropriate. Routine speed enforcement is recommended here.

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OPTIONS A number of options were developed which are intended to improve compliance, improve safety and be more easily understood by drivers. With each option a number of other changes should be considered:

 Henderson Road and Cadboro Bay should be posted at 50 km/hr. Currently speeds are significantly higher than the posted limit of 40 km/h;  Similarly Foul Bay Road south of Oak Bay Avenue should have a higher posted speed. Currently 96% of drivers exceed the posted limit. Advisory signs should be used where sight distances are limited. Since a section of this street travels within the City of Victoria, it would be prudent to discuss this with the City to see if they would agree to a higher limit;  The use of 30 km/h speed limits around schools and playgrounds should be changed to the standard zones as set out in the Uniform Manual of Traffic Control Devices and endorsed by TAC;  20 km/h speed zones are nonstandard and should be replaced with the standard park advisory sign with or without a regulatory speed tab.

OPTION 1 – STATUS QUO

With the exceptions noted above Option 1 shown in Appendix 3 is maintaining existing speed limits throughout Oak Bay. It has the advantage of being low cost, but does not resolve issues of complexity and poor compliance.

OPTION 2 – NEIGHBOURHOOD SPEED ZONE

In this case all of the streets shown on the Option 2 map would be 40 km/hr. Signs would be placed on the streets entering the zone but each individual block would not be signed. This option was developed because the area has a high concentration of cyclists and pedestrians and has a large number of driveways which constitute a hazard. It has the advantage of being clear and easy to understand and to allow for an effective public education program. Over time, costs would be lower due the fewer number of signs needing maintenance. A disadvantage is that it may raise issues for enforcement. The Motor Vehicles Act requires that speed limits other than 50 km/hr be posted on each block.

OPTION 3 – TRANSPORTATION ASSOCIATION OF CANADA GUIDELINE

In this case the results of the warrant calculations for each street was used. While the speed limit selected for each street can be justified technically, it has the disadvantage of being difficult to understand and communicate. Drivers may not be able to understand different speed limits on roads which look very much alike. In the long term costs of maintaining signs would be somewhat higher than other alternatives. The key advantage of this option that it is enforceable under the Provincial Motor Vehicles Act.

28 | P a g e OPTION 4 – STATUTORY LIMITS

This case is based on the speed limits set by Provincial statute, 50 km/h in urban areas. It would be the same as in Saanich and most of the region as well as with almost every other municipality in Canada. It would be simple to enforce and would require no signing other than for school zones and playground zones or where road geometry may be hazardous. This option would be best for transit and for greenhouse gas reduction. Most streets currently have an 85th percentile less than 50 km/h, many as low as 35 km/h. Research suggests that actual speeds might be two or three km/h higher on some streets but it is not expected that there would be a significant reduction in safety. The consultation with residents found, on the other hand, widespread support for lower posted speeds, at least on residential streets.

OPTION 5 – DISTRICT-WIDE SPEED ZONE

This case is similar to Option 2 but includes all of the District of Oak Bay. The advantage over Option 2 is that of clarity and public education. It would be straightforward to develop the message that it is “40 km/h in Oak Bay”. As with Option 2, there may be some potential enforcement issues; however, many streets are already posted at 40 km/h and these signs would remain. If specific problem areas developed and enforcement was compromised, 40 km/h signs could be installed in consultation with Oak Bay Police. This is not expected to be necessary as most streets have lower speeds due to their physical characteristics. Most of the benefits of improved transit service and greenhouse gas production would be obtained as the arterial network would be 50 km/h. Speeds on the local streets are generally less than 50 km/h, often much less.

POLICY FOR REVIEWING SPEED LIMITS

With this review of speed limits resulting in a standardized approach for establishing speed zones, it is recommended that the District adopt the TAC Procedure for Setting Speed Limits. Speed limits should be reviewed after the first year of implementation and then every five years or when changes to a road or adjacent land uses occurs.

The speed limit within a speed zone shall be set at the nearest 10 km/h increment to the 85th percentile speed or the upper limit of the 20km/h pace. No speed zone shall be established in a location where the 85th percentile speed is within +/- 5 km/h of the statutory speed limit. The existing speed limit within a speed zone shall not be changed if the 85th percentile speed is within +/- 5 km/h of the posted speed limit.

School and Playground Zones

The Provincial Motor Vehicle Act (MVA) provides for signing with an activated message boards to accentuate 30 km/h speeds during defined school hours. For locations now posted 50 km/h, it is suggested that a program of activated 30 km/h school speed limits be considered for Oak Bay.

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CONCLUSIONS

Speed limits in British Columbia are under the purview of the Provincial Government. The Provincial Motor Vehicle Act has set statutory limits of 50 km/h in urban areas and 80 km/h in rural areas; these limits apply unless the road is signed with another speed limit. This means that any street in Oak Bay that does not have a speed zone sign is a 50 km/h speed zone by default. The Province has granted to municipalities the right to set other speed limits but these variations must be posted.

The legislation also allows for school zones and playground zones which are 30 km/h and which may be posted for specific times of the day.

Within the District of Oak Bay there are currently a variety speed zones ranging from 20 km/h to the limit of 50 km/h. As a result of the high number of varying speed limits, there is a concern that this condition may be confusing to drivers, particularly for drivers from elsewhere in the region or tourists. Maintaining this variety of speed zones, with frequent requests for changes, taxes District resources.

The District has obtained speed information over many years and over many locations so that a comprehensive understanding of driver behaviour can be had. In Oak Bay compliance to speed limits is generally good on local roads, particularly where on-street parking is abundant.

Along some streets, typically with high traffic volumes, good sight distances and relatively wide travel lanes, speeds are often somewhat over the posted limits. Streets that are posted 40 km/h or less often have poor compliance. This reinforces the notion that speed is more a function of drivers’ perceptions of safety rather than the posted limit.

A review of the literature and current practice shows a pervasive view that most drivers are cautious and competent. It has become a norm that the speed not exceeded by 85% of drivers is a reasonable speed. The very low accident rates experienced on most streets attests to this notion. The research also suggests, however, that some drivers may misjudge their abilities or may not be aware of all of the hazards facing them. Regulating speeds through set speed limits and enforcement is an attempt to provide additional information to a prudent driver.

As discussed earlier, reduced speed zones may not always achieve desired results when it comes to compliance which can result in a false sense of safety for vulnerable road users. Where 85th percentile speeds are within appropriate ranges of compliance, pedestrians and cyclists can better anticipate traffic speeds and awareness of hazardous road conditions.

The increase in GHG’s for those local streets where recommended limits change from 50 to 40 km/h would be even smaller as local streets are typically short. Acceleration and deceleration effects are relatively large and would tend to minimize the effect of top speed and fuel efficiency.

Current procedures for setting speed limits were reviewed and the Transportation Association of Canada approach has been used to establish recommended speed limits in Oak Bay. This procedure is supported by research and practice, is widely used across Canada and provides consistent results using available data. The procedure suggests that speed zones should be consistent with as little change as possible so that they are easy to understand. Short streets are not posted as actual speeds are usually very low.

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After excluding streets less than 500 metres in length, suggested speed limits were developed for 55 streets using the TAC computer model. A summary of the overall conclusions is:

 Major arterials, particularly with bus routes, should be 50 km/h;  Collectors and Local roads should be 40 km/h;  The relatively high density of residential areas south of Lansdowne Avenue (meaning that many pedestrians, cyclists and driveways were present) results in a recommended limit of 40 km/h. Extending this change to all of Oak Bay would improve clarity and make public education easier . Wildlife – Over the past several years, there has been an upsurge of deer population within Oak Bay. This has led to some discussion of lowering speed limits to reduce the risk of vehicle / wildlife conflicts.

The TAC guidelines recommend that frequency of collisions with wildlife be reviewed and other measures such as fencing or wildlife crossing be implemented to limit the exposure of animals on the roadway. It is not recommended that speed limits be reduced in these zones. Wildlife/vehicle conflicts tend to be sporadic, concentrated to certain times of day and certain times of the year. Deer conflicts are rare enough that it seems likely that drivers would not deem the lower speed reasonable and a high rate of non-compliance with a 40 km/h limit would be expected. It is suggested that the issue of traffic safety and the deer population be dealt with on a regional basis.

Speed limits and environmental impacts – Overall the environmental effect of changes is expected to be small since a change in the posted speed usually results in a small change to actual driving speed. Nevertheless higher speeds on the arterial roads will reduce greenhouse gas production as will the elimination of widespread 30 km/h speed limits.

Speed limits and transit – A 50 km/h posted speed limit on Cadboro Bay Road and Henderson Road will improve transit productivity and reduce cost. The extent of the saving was not calculated. Improved transit service inevitably leads to higher ridership and lower greenhouse gas production.

Speed limits and local traffic – Analysis of the regional traffic model shows that higher speeds on arterial roads will tend to pull traffic from local streets. The effect would be substantial if actual speeds were changed by 10 km/hr. In reality speed changes are expected to be small and traffic reductions on local streets would also be small.

Arterials Roads The typical speed limit of 50 km/h for most urban arterials and major collectors will be set at 50 km/h. It is recognized that the travel speeds on the major arterials exceed 50 km/h by a significant amount, but the speed limit is well known and a change to 60 would not be well received by the public. Retaining the 50 km/h speed limit will allow for well-defined enforcement of violators by the police.

Local Roads While there is a percentage of the public that would have preferred 30 km/h speed limits on all neighbourhood roads, this policy suggestion is not to proceed at this time. First, the police have indicated that this would result in an onerous increase in enforcement requests. Second, the majority of collisions occur along arterial roads and diverting police resources away from major roads

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would not serve the goal of improving safety. Third, use of 30 km/h speed limits on neighbourhood streets would require installing additional signing at a significant cost.

While general use of 30 km/h speed limits in the neighbourhoods is not recommended, it is suggested for limited use under specific conditions such as lanes and older neighbourhoods which do not have sidewalks, locations with substandard geometry and areas around schools on local streets. For other locations alternative approaches to reducing travel speeds such as traffic calming are suggested as preferable and likely far more effective.

RECOMMENDATIONS

It is recommended that:

1. Council adopt the TAC warrant procedure for setting speed limits. 2. Henderson Road, Cedar Hill Cross Road, Foul Bay Road (north of Oak Bay Avenue and Cadboro Bay Road should be posted at 50 km/h; 3. The District adopt the Option 5 speed zone strategy.

Option 5: Neighbourhood Traffic Zones -Residential and Collector Roads would be 40 km/h as would Oak Bay Avenue and Beach Drive. Cadboro Bay Road, Foul Bay Road, 40 KM/H Lansdowne Avenue and Cedar Hill Cross Road would be 50

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1 Nova Scotia Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal, by Dillon Consulting Ltd., Low Posted Speed Limits Study, cited at http://novascotia.ca/tran/publications/Speed%20Zone%20Study%20- %20Final%20Report%202013-12-15.pdf on June 9, 2015 2 City of Winnipeg Traffic Control – Speed Limit Setting at http://www.winnipeg.ca/publicworks/InformationAndResources/TrafficControl/SpeedLimits/#speedL imitSetting

3 B.C. Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure, Rural Highway Safety and Speed Review, 2014, cited at http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/publications/reports_and_studies/ruralhwysafetyspeed/rural_hwy_safety- speed_review_technical.pdf on June 5, 2015.

4 J. Arthur et al, The Impact of Lowered Speed Limits in Urban and Metropolitan Areas, Monash University Accident Research Centre, 2008, cited at http://www.monash.edu.au/miri/research/reports/muarc276.pdf on June 9, 2015.

5 Transportation Research Board, Managing Speed Review of Current Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits, Special Report 254, Washington, 1998. 6 ibid 7 ibid 8 Federal Highway Administration, Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits, An Informational Report, 2009, cited at http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/ref_mats/fhwasa12004/ on June16, 2015. 9 Transportation Association of Canada, Canadian Guidelines for Establishing Posted Speed Limits, 2009. 10 SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, the Netherlands, The Relation between Speed and Crashes, 2012 cited at http://www.swov.nl/rapport/Factsheets/UK/FS_Speed.pdf on June 15, 2015.

11 Natural Resources Canada cited at http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/cars- light-trucks/fuel-efficient-driving-techniques/7513 on September 2, 2015 12 Ministère des Transports, Quebec, Manual for Setting Speed Limits on Municipal Road Networks, 2002,cited at http://www.bv.transports.gouv.qc.ca/mono/0826152.pdf on June 23, 2015.

13 ICBC Vancouver Island Crash Map http://www.icbc.com/about-icbc/newsroom/Pages/Vancouver-Island.aspx

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APPENDIX A – OCP SCHEDULE B

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35 | P a g e APPENDIX B - WARRANT FOR A 30 KM SPEED LIMIT IN TORONTO

Proposed Warrants for a 30 km/h Speed Limit In order to guide City staff in the review of requests to reduce the speed limit to 30 km/h without the installation of any traffic calming measures, a warrant was developed by Transportation Services. This warrant was formulated on the basis of findings from the review of various approaches in other jurisdictions, and consideration of existing roadway characteristics and the area environment. The proposed 30 km/h warrant is comprised of four separate warrants. These warrants were developed based on technical merits and as tested by staff to verify the appropriateness of the criteria. The speed limit can be reduced to 30 km/h if Warrants "B" and "C" are met OR Warrants "B" and "D" are met, and only after Warrant "A" is satisfied.

Warrant "A" – Petition This warrant gauges the opinion of the area residents and requires their initial support of reducing the speed limit on their street. In particular, the policy states that consideration of a 30 km/h speed limit on a street be initiated upon receipt of a petition signed by at least 25 percent of affected households on that street (or 10 percent in the case of multiple family rental dwellings). This would ensure that only those proposals supported by the community are investigated by staff.

Warrant "B" - Road Environment 1. Local or Collector Roads – Currently 30 km/h speed limit can be installed only on local and collector roads in conjunction with traffic calming measures. Therefore, similar speed limit reductions without traffic calming measures should only be allowed on these same classes of roads. In situations where a road has existing scheduled transit service, staff will confirm that as a result of a speed limit reduction no significant impacts will be experienced by transit users.

2. Pavement Width – Studies have shown that wide pavement/lane widths encourage motorists to drive faster because there are no perceived constraints or risks. Reducing the speed limit without any other physical measures on a wide road is likely to be ineffective and result in a wide variation in operating speeds. Therefore, the reduction in speed limit to 30 km/h should only be considered on roads with pavements no wider than 8.5 metres.

3. Operating Speed 85th Percentile (i.e., speed below which 85% of vehicles drive) – The 85th percentile speed should be no higher than 50 km/h. The rationale for this criteria is based on safety considerations, recognizing that risk increases with the deviation of a given driver speed from the speed of the main stream of traffic. If all drivers travel at the same speed, risk is minimal. As some motorists drive faster or slower, risk increases exponentially. Therefore the 85th percentile is viewed the safest speed and where risk is at its lowest. Otherwise, additional measures would be required to effectively reduce operating speeds from 50 km/h to 30 km/h as discussed later in the report in the section titled "Other Measures to Reduce Speeding".

4. Maximum Traffic Volume – The traffic volumes on the candidate roads should be less than 8,000 vehicles per day, which is the volume upper threshold for a collector road. It is recognized that lowering speed limits on residential or collector roads would impact travel times, but could be significantly worsen if traffic volumes were above the recommended upper threshold.

ALL criteria in Warrant 'B' must be met before considering the other warrants, below.

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Warrant "C" – School and Cycling Environment 1. School Zones – A lower speed limit on roads near elementary and junior high schools can help alert motorists to areas where there is a high concentration of young children.

2. Parkland – The lower 30 km/h speed limit can be extended on those roads which have an improved parkland (i.e., equipped with playgrounds and/or other recreational facilities) that is contiguous to an elementary or junior high school.

3. Cycling Facilities – Roads with contra-flow bicycle lanes and sharrows effectively narrow the width of travel lanes and communicate to motorists of the likelihood of significant cycling volumes along those routes. To improve the safety of the cyclists these roads would warrant a lower speed limit of 30 km/h.

At least one of the three above criteria needs to be met for this warrant to be satisfied.

Warrant "D" – Pedestrian and Traffic Environment 1. Absence of Sidewalk – Because pedestrians must walk along the edge of the pavement when sidewalks are not available, a slower speed limit should be considered to enhance the safety of these pedestrians.

2. Parking – When 'significant parking activity' that results in cars being parked most of the time on both sides of a road, or on one side with a pavement width less than 6.5 metres, it can be considered as a constraint for drivers. This can cause a change in driving speeds.

3. Curves – Slower speed limits should be considered in areas where horizontal curves are present in short distance from each other (i.e., < 200 metres) and the safe speed is less than 30 km/h. The 30 km/h safe speed limit would be established by staff undertaking a ball-bank indicator study (i.e., using a ball-bank indicator device mounted in a vehicle, readings are taken at different speeds along a curve to determine a safe travelling speed).

4. Stopping Distance – If there is lack of safe stopping distance (65 metres*) based on the operating speed of 40 km/h at two or more locations, a 30 km/h speed limit should be considered. Staff will be required to do a field study/assessment of sight lines to determine the existing stopping distances.

*- based on the Transportation Association of Canada Urban Design Standards Manual Three out of the four above criteria must be met for this warrant to be satisfied.

CITY OF OTTAWA – 40 KM/H POSTED SPEED LIMIT WARRANT

Warrant A o Elementary or junior high school abuts the road; o Parkland abuts the road that is contiguous to and used to gain access to an elementary junior high school; o No sidewalk on either side of the road or a major portion of the road; o The sidewalk is immediately adjacent to and not separated from the flow of motor

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vehicles by long-term parking (three hours) or bike lanes, and where the travel portion the road width is less than 5.7 m for two-way operation, or less than 4.0 m for one-way operation; o Two or more locations of concern where there are grades greater than 5% and/or safe speeds on curves is less than 50 km/h; o Lack of sufficient distance to stop safely at two or more locations when traveling at 50 km/h; o The number of the speed related collisions on local streets equals 3 or more over three years; o Where long-term parking (3 hours) is permitted on one or both sides and the remaining travel portion of the road is less than 5.7 m for two-way operations, or 4.0 for one-way operation; o A licensed child care facilities or private school abuts the road; and o Note: in the case of Warrant A(1) or A(2), the 40 km/h maximum speed one must extend no less than 150 m beyond the boundary of school property and/or contiguous parkland.

Warrant B: (Wide Roads) o A 40 km/h maximum speed limit can only be implemented on streets with total pavement width equal to or more than 10.5 m, if the 85th percentile speeds is equal to or less than 50 km/h.

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APPENDIX C – SPEED ZONE OPTIONS

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OPTION 1 – STATUS QUO

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OPTION 2 – NEIGHBOURHOOD SPEED ZONE

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OPTION 3 – TAC DEVELOPED SPEED LIMITS

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OPTION 4 – STATUTORY SPEED LIMITS

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OPTION 5 – DISTRICT WIDE SPEED ZONE

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