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Title of the Opinion EFSA Journal 20YY;volume(issue):NNNN 1 SCIENTIFIC OPINION 2 Scientific Opinion on the risk of Phyllosticta citricarpa (Guignardia 3 citricarpa) for the EU territory with identification and evaluation of risk 4 reduction options1 5 EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH) 2,3 6 European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy 7 8 ABSTRACT 9 The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa (synonym Guignardia citricarpa) for the EU, 10 also evaluating risk reduction options. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. 11 Under the worst case scenario of no risk reduction options, entry (and generally also transfer to host by 12 ascospores and/or pycnidiospores) was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, 13 moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit 14 without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely: hosts are widespread with long periods of 15 susceptibility, current fungicide treatments do not prevent establishment, the climate is considered regularly 16 suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection in many EU citrus 17 production areas in September and October and in some locations in May (in Cyprus, Greek islands, Malta, 18 South Italy and Southern Spain), and this is favoured locally by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler 19 irrigation. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicated that CBS would mainly 20 affect lemons and late maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties with moderate consequences increased by 21 the environmental impacts of additional fungicide treatments and extra quality controls and/or establishment of 22 pest free areas required to meet export phytosanitary requirements. Consequences would be minor for early 23 maturing citrus varieties (except in areas with potential spring infections or with sprinkler/micro-sprinkler 24 irrigation) and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high mainly due to 25 the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also on impacts in areas at the limits 26 of the current distribution. Since eradication and containment are very difficult, phytosanitary measures should 27 focus on preventing entry. Current EU measures are judged to be effective. 28 © European Food Safety Authority, 2013 29 KEY WORDS 30 Phyllosticta citricarpa, Guignardia citricarpa, citrus black spot, European Union, pest risk assessment, risk 31 reduction options 32 1 On request from the European Commission, Question No EFSA-Q-2013-00334. 2 Panel members: Richard Baker, Claude Bragard, Thierry Candresse, Gianni Gilioli, Jean-Claude Grégoire, Imre Holb, Michael John Jeger, Olia Evtimova Karadjova, Christer Magnusson, David Makowski, Charles Manceau, Maria Navajas, Trond Rafoss, Vittorio Rossi, Jan Schans, Gritta Schrader, Gregor Urek, Johan Coert van Lenteren, Irene Vloutoglou, Stephan Winter and Wopke van der Werf. Correspondence: [email protected] 3 Acknowledgement: The Panel wishes to thank: Richard Baker, Diego Intrigliolo, David Makowski, Marco Pautasso, Trond Rafoss, Jan Schans, Wopke van der Werf and Antonio Vicént Civera for the preparatory work on this scientific opinion, the hearing expert Eduardo Primo Millo and EFSA staff: Giuseppe Stancanelli, Tilemachos Goumperis and Olaf Mosbach Schulz for the support provided to this scientific opinion. Suggested citation: EFSA PLH Panel (EFSA Panel on Plant Health), 20YY. Scientific Opinion on title of the opinion. EFSA Journal 20YY;volume(issue):NNNN, 165 pp. doi:10.2903/j.efsa.20YY.NNNN. Available online: www.efsa.europa.eu/efsajournal © European Food Safety Authority, 2013 Public consultation on Phyllosticta citricarpa pest risk assessment 33 SUMMARY 34 The European Commission requested EFSA to prepare a pest risk assessment of the citrus black spot 35 (CBS) fungus Guignardia citricarpa Kiely (all strains pathogenic to Citrus), to identify risk reduction 36 options and to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism 37 in the EU territory4. EFSA was also requested to carry out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the 38 present EU requirements5 for Guignardia citricarpa in reducing the risk of introduction of this 39 harmful organism into the EU. Furthermore, EFSA was requested to assess the risk associated with 40 Citrus latifolia plants, including fruit, for the entry of this organism into the Union. 41 The Panel on Plant Health (PLH) conducted the risk assessment following the guidance documents for 42 producing standardized assessments of pest risk (EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), 2010) and risk 43 reduction options (EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), 2012). The Panel conducted the risk 44 assessment in the absence of current and potential new risk reduction measures in place. The risk 45 assessment therefore express the full risk posed by P. citricarpa to the EU territory corresponding to a 46 situation where all current EU citrus requirements listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC (in Annexes 47 II, III, IV and V) and Commission Decisions 2004/416/EC and 2006/473/EC are lifted without being 48 replaced by any other risk reduction measures. 49 The risk assessment covers Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, which has since been renamed Phyllosticta 50 citricarpa (McAlpine) Aa. Other Phyllosticta species associated with citrus are not included. 51 After consideration of the evidence, the Panel reached the following conclusions: 52 With regard to the pest categorisation: 53 P. citricarpa is absent from the EU and has a potential for establishment and spread and for causing 54 consequences in the risk assessment area. 55 With regard to the assessment of the risk to plant health of for the EU territory: 56 Under the worst case scenario in which all current EU citrus and P. citricarpa requirements listed in 57 Council Directive 2000/29/EC and Commission Decisions 2004/416/EC and 2006/473/EC would be 58 lifted, the conclusions of the pest risk assessment are as follows: 59 Entry 60 The probability of entry is rated as: 61 moderately likely for the citrus fruit trade pathway (medium uncertainty), 62 very unlikely for the Tahiti lime (Citrus latifolia) fruit trade pathway (high uncertainty), 63 unlikely for citrus fruit import by the passenger traffic pathway (medium uncertainty), 64 likely for the citrus fruit with leaves trade pathway (medium uncertainty), 65 likely for the citrus plants for planting trade pathway (low uncertainty), 66 likely for the Tahiti lime (Citrus latifolia) plants for planting trade pathway (high 67 uncertainty), 4 The request was made pursuant to Article 29( 1) and Article 22(5) of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002. 5 The current requirements are listed in Annexes III, IV and V of Council Directive 2000/29/EC. as well as in Commission Decisions 2004/416/EC and 2006/473/EC, EFSA Journal 20YY;volume(issue):NNNN 2 Public consultation on Phyllosticta citricarpa pest risk assessment 68 likely for the citrus plants for planting import by the passenger traffic pathway (medium 69 uncertainty), 70 unlikely for the citrus leaves pathway (medium uncertainty) 71 Establishment 72 The probability of establishment is rated as moderately likely because of: 73 the widely availability of suitable hosts (no uncertainty), 74 the climate suitability for ascospore maturation, dispersal and infection in many EU citrus 75 growing areas in September and October and also for specific locations in May (high 76 uncertainty), 77 cultural practices (fungicides) not preventing establishment (low uncertainty), 78 sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation (still used in parts of the EU citrus growing areas) 79 favouring establishment (low uncertainty), 80 the simultaneous occurrence of host susceptibility and of weather conditions suitable for 81 ascospore production and release, as well as for ascospore germination and infection (high 82 uncertainty). 83 Overall, uncertainty on the probability of establishment is rated as high, mainly due to lack of 84 knowledge on how P. citricarpa will respond to the EU climatic conditions. Although the 85 environmental factors that are important in the various stages of the life cycle are known, scientific 86 evidence is lacking concerning the precise thresholds for what values the organism requires, e.g. for 87 the temperature and the wetness levels and durations. Further validation of the models applied by the 88 Panel, especially for marginal areas within the current distribution of the CBS disease would be 89 needed to reduce the uncertainty on the probability of establishment of P. citricarpa in the EU. 90 Spread 91 Natural spread of P. citricarpa is known to mainly occur by airborne ascospores. The distances the 92 pathogen can spread by natural means is poorly known, The pathogen is very likely to spread with 93 commercial fruit and plants for planting pathways. However, because spread is defined as the 94 expansion of the geographical distribution of a pest within an area, the rate of spread depends not only 95 on the rapidity of movement and the number of spread pathways but also the likelihood of finding a 96 suitable environment for establishment. When the proportion of the citrus growing areas identified as 97 potentially suitable for P. citricarpa is taken into account, the Panel considered that a rating of 98 moderately likely is most appropriate for spread. 99 There is uncertainty about the potential natural spread of ascospores carried by wind over long 100 distances, but this uncertainty does not concern the two main pathways of spread (intra-European trade 101 in commercial fruit and plants for planting). Although there is uncertainty about the structure of the 102 EU intra-trade network for the citrus plants for planting owing to lack of data, this does not influence 103 the conclusions above. 104 Endangered area 105 The risk assessment has identified parts of the EU where host plants are present and where, based on 106 simulation results, the climatic conditions are suitable for ascospore maturation and release followed 107 by infection.
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