Forecast for the new Crimea and Jan Tombinski government and parliament the in 2015 on reforms for

№ 16 (82) December 2014

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|contents Politics Crimea Post-Revolution Hangover: The Shattered Showcase of the Russian World: Who will win the war Russian occupation spells decline of Crimea’s real economy, of each against all impoverishment and unemployment in Ukrainian politics? 27 The Unfree Peninsula: 4 The prospects DiversificationP ains: External factors will keep pushing of Crimea in 2015 Ukraine’s economy to overcome dependence on unreliable export-oriented industries and markets 30 8 The Nerve of Annexation: Fueling Energy Independence: ’s Psychological portrait energy war and devaluation of the of Crimeans during the Maidan hryvnia will change the way Ukrainians and before the annexation use gas and electricity 32 10 Crimea's Multitude of Nations: On Another Front: Ethnic diversity of the peninsula Ukraine needs energy reform to fix the economy and weaken Russia’s grip 35 Crimean Anchor: The rationale behind transferring 11 the peninsula to the Ukrainian EU Ambassador to Ukraine SSR in 1954 Jan Tombinski on vital reforms for the country 38 12 Neighbours Ex-President of Latvia Vaira Vike-Freiberga: Security “The most important element for Andriy Levus, ex-Deputy Chief the future of Ukraine is what Ukrainians of the SBU, on post-Maidan do themselves” transformations in Ukraine’s security service, Russian agents 42 and Ukrainian guerillas Lev Gudkov, Director ofL evada Center, in the Donbas on essential components of Russian society and the 14 tools with which the government Donbas controls it Is Donbas Really so Hopeless? It is the Kyiv government, not the 44 people of the region who should Leonidas Donskis be blamed for its current turmoil on Ukraine’s historical 18 and political time zone A War in the People’s Republic: 47 Who controls the self-proclaimed quasi-state Yuriy Sergeyev, Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN: 20 “Ukraine wants The Union of Donetsk and the to create a coalition for the protection Kremlin: The initiators of the of the interests of our region – Europe” anti-Ukrainian putsch in Donetsk 48 22 Anti-Crisis Communication: Donetsk and the Phantoms Musician and art gallery curator of Capitalism: Olena Stiazhkina Pavlo Gudimov on public and private on businessmen in the Donbas collaboration to save culture 24 50

E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-87 The Ukrainian Week № 16 (82) December 2014 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Alla Lazareva Editors Anna Korbut, Natalia Romaneс, Shaun Williams № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|3 Politics|Government billion hryvnias, despite a signifi- cant rise in gas prices for household consumers in the first half of the Post-Revolution year. The fighting in the Donbas and permanent threat of Russian invasion triggered capital flight and a decline in foreign exchange earn- ings. This intensified problems that had been brewing for years and left Hangover the country without a safety net. The devaluation of the hryvnia, whose rate has been impossible to Who will win the war of each against stabilize at 11.5, then 12.95, then 15- all in Ukrainian politics? 16 to the dollar, naturally did not stop and will not stop. The official he next year (or even its be- Author: ko’s Cabinet after the crisis of 2008- rate is already at least 10-15% lower ginning) promises to pose Oleksandr 2009, nor Azarov’s in 2010-2014. than the prices of currency on the very difficult challenges for Kramar On the contrary, each government black market, though it is really only TUkraine’s social and political tried to hand off the responsibility available there at 17-17,5 hryvnias/ stability. The expected confluence of of addressing these problems to its USD (the price grows constantly). several negative factors suggests successors: public debt increased Most experts and international that the country is more than ever at rapidly in order to maintain an agencies predicted further eco- risk of plunging into total chaos, the overvalued exchange rate for the nomic decline of at least 3-5% next consequences of which are cur- hryvnia, and the populist holiday year, along with rising unemploy- rently unpredictable, and the forces continued amidst growing deficits ment and inflation, reduced real in- that might overcome it, uncertain. for the budget, the Pension Fund comes for citizens and the state The country is rapidly ap- and Naftogaz, the state-owned mo- budget. It’s already no secret: in or- proaching a financial, economic and nopolist gas supplier in Ukraine. der to truly stabilize the situation in sociopolitical abyss, modern ana- Ultimately, the margin of safety the monetary and financial sectors, logues of which may be found in the was crossed. Beginning in April the budget deficit must be reduced, case of Argentina during the default Puppeteers. 2011, more than USD 30bn out of from the state to Naftogaz and the The oligarchs of the early 2000s, or in re- are trying to USD 38bn in foreign reserves was Pension Fund. cent years. These crises arose out of exploit the spent to support the illusion of sta- To reduce the budget deficit to problems that began at least in the population’s bility (according to estimates in De- at least 3.7% of GDP, the Finance last decade. Previous administra- spirit of protest cember they will fall to USD 7.2- Ministry has required all ministries tions have done nothing to remedy to further their 7.6bn). The Naftogaz deficit ex- to cut spending by 25%. This inevi- the situation—neither Tymoshen- own interests ceeded the astronomical sum of 100 tably means layoffs, reduced social фото сайта: www.pinchukfund.org сайта: фото

4|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Government|Politics benefits or long unpaid leaves. And dominate the most profitable sec- MPs, and the Com- this time the government is unlikely tors of the economy. The country munist Party would not be suitable to avoid austerity measures. Indeed, has lately seen countless scandals conduits for revolution as they have the IMF will not continue lending to stirred by bribes in return for this or lost any respect or authority in the a country that does nothing to even that lucrative government position, country, and Svoboda party has come close to spending less than it on which, of course, the candidates been trying to take advantage of earns. In January, without the plan to earn a good yield. popular discontent but has discred- IMF’s support, the level of reserves The long talks by senior officials ited and marginalized itself not only may fall to a critical USD 5.6bn and in the present government and the at the national level, but also among be completely exhausted by March Tax Service regarding the hundreds its regional “base”, where it long or April, so a default surely awaits. of billions in damage caused to the controlled the local government but Among other things, this will state by corruption under the Yanu- did not live up to expectations. mean the inability to draw loans to kovych regime have not translated Under these circumstances, it finance even the aforementioned into savings for Ukraine. What’s would be simple for a variety of deficit of 3.7% of GDP. Hence even more, to the naked eye, even with- players to exploit the high potential greater restrictions will be placed on out any noticeable calculations, it is for explosive protests among a dis- actual spending. These restrictions clear that the share of state reve- appointed population that is even will either be nominal or through nues that “vanished” has not only more aggressive toward the new the large-scale printing of money by remained, but has even increased. government than it was toward the the NBU in order to cover the defi- For example, the hryvnia-denomi- old. Those who might try to lead cit, causing hyperinflation in a man- nated budget revenues are virtually these uprisings are not likely to be ner reminiscent of the early 1990s. the same as last year, but after the able to control them for long. And devaluation of the national currency they themselves will risk becoming Unfair belt tightening by more than half, the volume of victims of the movement as the The decline of living standards is al- imports (which provides a signifi- populist spiral unravels. The latest ready very significant. The 21.8% cant portion of revenues to the trea- rally in Vinnytsia offers a good ex- year on year inflation rate recorded sury), exports and the production of ample (on December 6, protesters by the Ukrainian State Statistics goods and services have increased stormed the Oblast Council prem- Service in November is just the tip significantly, even considering the ises trying to prevent it from hold- of the iceberg. losses incurred in the Donbas. ing the session and holding a vote Most vulnerable social groups can expect a targeted support pack- The phantom The Parliament will lack age, which will at least partly allevi- of total chaos ate the impact of austerity for them. Amid the impoverishment of the a solid ruling coalition. But the majority of citizens whose majority of Ukraine’s population, Decisions will be passed average incomes are higher than the including those who recently joined long-inadequate living wage (1,176 the ranks of the middle class, at- by situational alliances hryvnia or around USD 70 at the tempts to further tighten the noose current official exchange rate) are on their necks objectively spells so- to dismiss the head of the oblast destined for further rapid deteriora- cial instability. Not only due to “aus- council. Eight people were injured tion of living standards. We can also terity” itself (though it could be less in clashes between the protesters expect a sharp increase in tax pres- rigid if corruption schemes and tax and the police – Ed.). sure on small and medium busi- loopholes for oligarchs were elimi- On the one hand, such events nesses to fill the revenue side, and nated), but also because of the psy- are a result of the current leader- new initiatives on taxation of ordi- chological factor - an acute sense of ship’s inability to bring members of nary citizens (such as the newly-in- injustice. After all, it will signal that the former regime to justice and re- troduced 30% personal consump- corruption loopholes in the budget move them from governing bodies. tion tax). By contrast, there is no remain unfixed, and oligarchs and On the other hand, these actions are evidence of the Government’s will- most big businesses that are associ- not much different from the seizing ingness to withdraw from the off- ated with the ruling parties con- of power and the conduct of local shores or tax the multi-billion hryv- tinue their tax evasion practices. deputies and mayors in Sevastopol, nia income of oligarchs. Moreover, Since the Revolution of Dignity the Donbas, and Odesa in having influence over opposition was a struggle against injustice (and the spring of this year. The rally in and coalition political forces, the not a change from one government Vinnytsia was a gathering of 150- oligarchs will try to maintain and to another), the populace will 200 people, most of whom are expand existing privileges and bud- quickly develop an appetite for con- hardly citizens of Vinnytsia. Lead- get leaching operations through tinued revolution. However, under ing the protest were local leaders corruption schemes. the present circumstances it is un- from ’s Svoboda The oligarchs, as always, are likely to be organized on a national and ’s Bat- selling goods produced in Ukraine scale given the lack of political kivshchyna parties–who together to their offshore companies at power—or at least a civil move- garnered only about 10% of the vote prices often below cost. They use ment—that is capable of taking on in the latest parliamentary elec- this as an excuse to complain about such tasks. The Maidan parties that tions. In fact, Svoboda took only “losses” allegedly incurred by their came to Parliament are not only de- 4.25% in the general elections in businesses and prepare the ground pendent on the oligarchy but are Vinnytsia Oblast, while Bat- for new tax and transport privileges. chained to the ruling coalition. The kivshchyna took just 6.6%. In the Their total monopoly continues to , a club of former city of Vinnytsia, they garnered № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|5 Politics|Government 6.2% and 5.4%, respectively. Even if 305-308 MPs including the presid- compromised them, and would successful, this kind of seizure of ium) opens broad opportunities for compromise the ruling coalition to- power is doomed because it will not intra-faction games and the snub- day. be able to positively resolve any bing of not only party members, but In this format, the coalition problems for the locals, though it of entire partner-factions. The leit- comprises almost 330 MPs. This may generate new ones instead. motif of parliamentary life will be means it is able to pass decisions A similar problem arose nation- that whoever sets up his opponent even without the support of a hun- wide following the Maidan, and is on a particular problem and unite dred of its official members (this is now no less acute. In our modern with others to solve it in the most the combined number of the Peo- reality, popular uprisings can over- beneficial way will be the winner. ple’s Front and Oleh Lyashko’s Rad- throw this or that regime relatively This atmosphere can quickly result ical Party, or the People’s Front and easily, although they do not offer a in a predominance of absolute dis- Batkivshchyna representatives in decent alternative. As a result, a few trust and thus unpredictable actions the coalition). Poroshenko’s Bloc representatives of the ruling class by the ruling coalition, aggravated currently has 150 deputies, while dependent on oligarchy or big busi- internal struggles, blaming of mis- the People’s Front has 83, Andriy ness simply take the place of others. takes on others and tug-o-war Savodyi’s Samopomich (Self-Help) games. has 33, Oleh Lyashko’s Radical A war of each against all In fact, the parliament will be Party has 22, and Batkivshchyna Meanwhile, a war of ‘each against left without a governing coalition has 20. Ihor Yeremeyev’s Will of the all’ (whose contours have been out- and decision-making will rely on People group has 20 votes. lined in recent days) is brewing situational alliances, including Other solid groups include the within this ruling class against the those involving non-coalition par- Economic Development group led backdrop of social and economic ties. This situation can be tolerable by the Party of Regions’ Vitaliy Kho- destabilization. The main political in a presidential-parliamentary re- mytynnik and Yevgeniy Geller (19 parties now seem to be hoping to public during a relatively stable members), the Opposition Bloc successfully maneuver within the time. However, it adds another fac- (40), a group of Svoboda party environment of worsening socio- members (7; Svoboda failed to cross economic and sociopolitical desta- the 5% threshold in the latest gen- bilization, keeping afloat and con- As always, the oligarchs eral elections but some of its mem- tinuing to loot the country for as are selling goods bers were elected as first-past-the- long as possible (by distributing post candidates), a new association corrupt posts, carving up the budget produced in Ukraine called the Ukrainian Opposition, and taking control of the remnants to their offshore which includes 5 MPs (Dmytro of state property). Yarosh, Borys Filatov, Andriy Bi- The situation is further compli- companies at prices letskyi, Boryslav Bereza, and cated by the lack of a clear picture of often below cost Volodymyr Parasiuk) and Viktor Ukrainian politics in its current Baloha’s United Centre (whose state. There is no political force to tor of destabilization in the crisis- council also includes two of Balo- which dissatisfied citizens can turn ridden country where the parlia- ha’s brothers and a cousin). with their concerns. Most of the ment has more powers than the current parties have plenty of patri- president. The opposition otic and/or pro-European-minded Take, for example, a vote on a A reactionary opposition force com- people who understand the chal- resolution to elect heads, deputy posed of former Party of Regions lenges facing the country and the heads, secretaries and members of members is now taking shape. At need for real reforms, not lip ser- parliamentary committees. Only the same time, the majority of the vice. But politicians who came to 249 deputies voted “for” the resolu- new Opposition Bloc’s 40 parlia- power to “solve” business issues for tion, of which 228 were from the mentary members and the 19 mem- themselves or their sponsors and to coalition. Thus, the resolution bers belonging to the Economic De- earn back what they spent on cam- might not have passed without the velopment group (which is satu- paigns prevail and determine poli- five unaffiliated votes (former Party rated with former Party of Regions cies. of Regions members Andriy Kly- members from southeastern re- At the same time, political par- uyev, Serhiy Kivalov, Eduard Mat- gions) have a common position. ties are unprecedentedly diverse. viychuk, , and Their representatives are in- They all have groups of people who Oleksandr Suprunenko) and 15 creasingly critical of the current have much more in common in votes it received from Ihor Yere- government and have a good chance terms of their view of Ukraine’s fu- meyev’s Will of the People group. to gain absolute victory (at least in ture with their peers from other Andriy Pyvovarskyi, Minister of In- most southeastern regions) in the parties, than with their party fel- frastructure in the new government, next local or even early parliamen- lows. This applies to those who are was a top manager of the Contin- tary elections, which their speakers seeking to preserve the status quo uum, a group Yeremeyev co- have already threatened to initiate. or even return to “pre-revolutionary founded. This is further evidence of Paradoxically, this opposition is practices”, as well as reformers call- the fact that Will of the People par- currently seen as the major benefi- ing for a true liquidation of the oli- ticipates in the coalition, although ciary of the growing dissatisfaction garchic-monopolistic model and a this participation is informal since among citizens of the southeastern war on corruption. the fact that its members voted for regions where living standards have The coalition in the format of a the draconian January 16 laws un- rapidly deteriorated, although it constitutional majority (currently der the Yanukovych presidency was this group that is responsible 6|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Government|Politics for the country’s critical situation in Oblast Administration Borys Fila- movement able to take responsi- the first place. tov, who is considered the unofficial bility for the country’s develop- At the same time, the line of con- supervisor of the oligarch’s creation ment and for fundamental trans- frontation between Ihor Kolo- in parliament. formation rather than imitation, moyskyi and is The group is expecting Svoboda the oligarchs will use the popula- becoming more obvious. The latter to possibly join them along with tion’s appetite for populism to seems to be trying to use parliamen- some other MPs as well—in particu- strengthen their positions. Oli- tary groups of , lar, those that are members of other garch projects will over and over Dmytro Firtash and Serhiy Liovoch- coalition factions. After all, it must again achieve popularity position- kin to balance Kolomoiskyi’s influ- have at least 18 people in order to ing themselves as new political ence in the southeast. If this is so, become an official group in the par- forces, and acquire a certain num- then Poroshenko is repeating the liament. According to Filatov, Uk- ber of seats in the parliament and same mistake that Viktor Yush- rOp is betting that “there is so much chenko once made, when he saw Ya- arguing within this parliament, and The oligarchs will nukovych and the Party of Regions the major factions are resorting to as a foil to Tymoshenko. It was a such Byzantine measures that we use the population’s mistake for him to think that they will soon see major changes”. appetite for populism might be any less dangerous to him. UkrOp actively bills itself as the Kolomoyskyi has put his eggs in main alternative to the Opposition to strengthen different baskets. His people are Bloc and Economic Development their positions present in the People’s Front, for the many people dissatisfied Samopomich, and in Poroshenko’s with the country’s development, es- government, continuing to act Bloc. However, his main stake is pecially in the Centre and West. Its within the oligarchic matrix until now in the newly created unaffili- representatives have publicly and replaced with new ones. The only ated Ukrainian Opposition (Uk- sharply criticized President Porosh- way out is a true grassroots re-or- rOp), which includes the famous enko himself (Borys Filatov) and his ganizing of Ukrainian society from Maidan captain Volodymyr Para- speaker Groysman (Volodymyr Par- below. However, the conditions siuk, two deputies from the Right asiuk). With Kolomoyskyi’s power- for this do not yet exist, and the Sector (Dmytro Yarosh and Bo- ful media resources, this group can citizens continue to simply as- ryslav Bereza), the commander of communicate its position to broader sume that they can punish politi- the volunteer regiment Azov Andriy masses of dissatisfied citizens. cians who fall short of their expec- Biletskyi, and Kolomoyskyi’s former In the absence of organized tations by voting for others in the deputy in the Dnipropetrovsk political forces or a broad popular next election. politics|Exports Diversification Pains External factors are pushing Ukrainian economy to overcome its extreme dependence on specific export goods and unreliable export markets Author: An open wound Oleksandr Kramar Exports plummeted this year largely because of the war in part of Ukraine kraine's dependence on export markets has con- Exports in Jan-Sep 2013–2014 with and without siderably increased in U2014: the export to GDP ratio made 46% in the first half of the year (and will likely be even Jan–Sep 2013 Jan–Sep 2014 greater by the end of the year due Ukraine to much deeper devaluation of (less Crimea) hryvnia in autumn which has a 45.53 Ukraine negative effect on the foreign cur- (less Crimea) 41.98 rency equivalent of the country's Donetsk and GDP). At the same time the cur- Donetsk and rent turmoil affected both the 12.21 commodity and the geographical 12.21 structure of the export. The changes will be shocking initially (as proceeds in foreign currency will reduce and destabilize the fi- nancial system), but they will have a positive impact in the long term, as they prompt the diversi- fication of the commodity struc- Own calculations based ture and decrease Ukraine’s de- 33.32 32.79 Committee data pendence on markets that are un- reliable for political reasons. During the first three quarters a result of intensified hostilities, ation. At the same time the air- of 2014 the export of goods gradual suspension of production, craft builders located far from the shrank by 7.7%. However, this and even more so as a result of aforementioned area have in- was almost entirely caused by the suspended export of goods from creased their export share consid- industrial collapse in Donetsk terrorist-controlled territories. erably, and so did the manufactur- and Luhansk oblasts (-24.7%). In During the same period the share ers of electrical equipment. other regions the downturn is of ferrous metallurgy in Ukraine's The percentage of foodstuffs barely noticeable (-1.6%). The overall export reduced from 26.6% in the export demonstrated dy- statistics for the third quarter namic growth (up to 31.7%). This demonstrate that while the export concerns not only grains and oil- decline accelerated in the course the current turmoil seeds, but also sunflower oil, poul- of the year, it was largely due to affected both the try and vegetables. In this case, the instability in the warzone re- the factor of the anti-terrorist op- gions. Their orientation on metal- commodity and the eration only accelerated the larger lurgic industry, the severely out- geographical structure of trend observed since the world dated and uncompetitive outside economic crisis of 2008-2009: the the CIS machine-building, as well the export reorientation of export towards energy-intensive chemical indus- the kinds of goods, in the produc- try has led to the reduction of the to 22.3% (or from USD 1.38bn to tion of which Ukraine enjoys a share of these very commodities USD 0.96bn), while the share of natural advantage. For instance, in the overall Ukrainian export. machine-building dropped from the foodstuffs share from 2007 In August-September 2014, 18.8% to 13.4% (from USD 904mn through 2013 increased from the share of Donetsk and Luhansk to USD 577.1mn). The latter has 12.7% to 26.8% and exceeded that oblasts in Ukraine's industrial been dragged down by the railway of the ferrous metallurgy. output (not including Crimea) locomotive manufacturers, the fa- Simultaneously, the export shrunk to 12.3% (compared to cilities of which are located inside share of industries that were his- 25.2% in 2013). This happened as the zone of the anti-terrorist oper- torically seen as secondary in 8|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Exports|politics Farewell to Eurasia Livestock production is ex- pected to considerably increase The share of Russia and members of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in Ukrainian exports is shrinking rapidly. Potential loss of these markets is no longer a threat to the Ukrainian economy its export in 2015. This will be aided by the EU giving Ukrainian producers the green light to sell their output in the EU member states. Since the European Union Exports to Russia Q3 2011 Aug–Sep 2013–2014, 2013, unilaterally introduced duty- in 2011–2014, % of total exports Aug–Sep free access for Ukrainian goods USD bn 31.5 (within quotas), poultry export to 5.42 2014, the EU has been growing at an Q3 2014 Countries that will join Aug–Sep impressive speed, 2.8 times in the Eurasian Economic 23.9 2.43 Union in 2015* 23.2 Q3’14 from Q2. Polish producers already voiced concerns regard- Including Russia 16.9 ing the emerging competition from the Ukrainian goods that

- currently undercut Polish prices by more than 50%. Export of Own calculations based other livestock products, first and Committee data foremost dairy and eggs, to the EU is likely to increase as well. Ukraine’s economy (textile, per the official NBU exchange Diversification of exported leather, footwear, woodworking, rate of November 12), is several goods, the signing of the Associa- paper, furniture, glass, ceramic in- times higher than the corre- tion and the Free Trade Area dustries) has increased: up to sponding salary in Ukraine. Agreement with the EU, and es- 8.9% in the third quarter of 2014 The first four months of the pecially the loss of industrial ca- (from 6.6% three years ago). In 2014/15 marketing year (July-Oc- pacity in the Donbas along with September the revenues from pa- tober) were marked by sharp in- harsher trade restrictions im- per and paperboard exports (USD crease of grain export. After the posed by Russia created the con- 71mn) exceeded the ones from fer- summer's drop the prices on the ditions for Ukraine's relatively tilizer export (USD 53mn), while world market are gradually recov- painless withdrawal from the exports of furniture (USD 50.5mn) ering, and the devaluation of the post-Soviet export markets. or finished textile products (USD hryvnia made them all the more at- In August-September 2014, 48.8mn) topped that of railway lo- tractive for the Ukrainian agricul- when the abovementioned factors comotives (USD 42.9mn). ture: product cost has gone up by gained prominence, Ukraine's ex- This was considerable diversi- 30-40% for them, while the selling port to Russia was 40.5% less fication of export, which used to prices nearly doubled. Thus in than the corresponding figure for extensively depend on three in- 2014/15 marketing year (July the same period of 2013. The dustries: inefficient and energy- 2014-June 2015) considering the Russian Federation's share in the intensive metallurgy and chemis- expected gross yield of 62-63 mil- overall Ukrainian export dropped try, as well as the outdated ma- lion tons of grain Ukraine may ex- to 16.9%, or 23.2% if one takes chine-building. It looks like this port the record 36-37 million tons. into account Russia's satellites trend will continue in 2015. The that are to become its fellow members within the Eurasian contributing factors will include the reduction of export of ma- Economic Union (Kazakhstan, in Q3’14 compared to the same period in 2013, times chine building products that are Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic and not competitive outside the for- ). For comparison: ex- July Septem- mer Eastern Bloc, as well as the port to the EU during the same main Ukrainian export-oriented 2014 2014 ber 2014 period hit 28.9%, other export chemicals, the production of Textile 1 1.07 1.15 amounted to 47.9%. which relies on the usage of im- At present the loss of the en- ported natural gas. Footwear 1.12 1.06 1.06 tire Russian market would make Metallurgic export will pri- less of a difference than its re- marily depend on global demand, Furniture 1.1 1.17 1.1 duction in the course of the pre- as there are plenty of production vious three years: in Q3’14 Wood and 1.18 1.23 1.32 facilities outside the zone of the Ukraine's export to Russia made anti-terrorist operation to com- USD 2.4bn, compared to USD 5.4bn during the same period of pensate for the loss of the Donbas Glass goods 1.41 1.16 1.41 production capacity, should the 2011. If this trend is to continue market demand necessitate this. Grain 1.42 1.41 1.41 in 2015, by the time the Free The competitiveness of Ukrai- Trade Area agreement with the nian industries with large pro- Meat 1.3 2.33 1.73 EU fully comes into force (Janu- portion of labor wages in produc- ary 1, 2016) and the CIS FTA is tion cost will gain from the fact Sunflower oil 1.5 1.29 1.88 potentially discontinued , the that the average salary of indus- Vegetables 1.24 2.93 1.98 Russian share in Ukraine's ex- trial workers in China, the port may well be down to 10- "world's factory" (UAH 8,800 as 12%. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|9 Politics|Energy murky gas deal from the Kremlin or a reform-oriented approach to gas consumption? Will coal barons con- tinue to set their rules and milk the Fueling Energy taxpayers by getting privileges from the state, or will the government launch painful reforms and close down most loss-making mines? With energy and economic dif- ficulties, Europe might once again Independence act as an unreliable partner of Ukraine. It might utter as many declarations of support as ever, but Russia’s energy war and devaluation offer less assistance unless the US of the hryvnia will force Ukrainians to pushes it to act differently. Many European politicians will be eager use gas and electricity differently to turn a blind eye to the deals Mos- cow could offer, if only to see the “Ukrainian-Russian crisis” over and to go back to business-as-usual with Russia. The Kremlin, however, sees the Europeans differently. It will once again crash their illusions shaped by the post-WWII status quo, but will hardly be resilient it- self. Russia might try to take over more Ukrainian territory where vital energy-generating facilities are lo- cated in order to ensure energy sup- ply to the new quasi-states in the Donbas and to deal an energy blow to Ukraine. In 2015, and especially after the winter bills, most Ukrainians will install gas, electricity and heat meters. Energy efficiency and di- versification will be the top priority for households in 2015, while au- tonomous energy generation and he past years loomed as a ma- Author: On top of the gas blockade and independence from the clumsy jor test for Ukraine’s energy Mykhailo coal diet of 2014, Ukraine might face central systems will be the task for system. Widely regarded as Honchar, the deficit of petroleum products in years to come. After the cold Tfragile, inflexible and ineffi- President of 2015. Ukraine’s biggest supplier is months of 2014-2015, “energy per- cient, it was expected to operate un- the Strategy Belarus. Russia might force it to curb formance certification” and der extreme conditions of war and XXI Centre for exports to Ukraine by cutting the “thermo-modernization” will no deficit of fuels. The winter of 2014- Global Studies supplies of cheap oil to Belarus. longer be alien words to Ukrainian 2015 has not been extremely chal- The vital energy formula for consumers. Gas and electricity bills lenging thus far, and most Ukraini- Ukraine in 2015 should be “reforms and devaluation of the hryvnia will ans are prepared to endure the cold + reserves”. The key to survival in boost energy efficiency. months in hope that the situation the winter of 2015-2016 will be re- Biomass will be used more will improve in spring. However, the serves of gas, petroleum products, widely as fuel in the coming years. test will continue beyond winter. coal and nuclear fuel accumulated in The legislative foundation laid in Two things confirm this. Firstly, 2014-2015 will give rise to the begin- Russia is not going to stop using en- ning of diversification from gas and ergy as weapons or undermining On top of the gas blockade coal. Ukraine has huge agricultural Ukraine’s energy and transit infra- and coal diet of 2014, capacity. Its growth will result in the structure. Secondly, Ukraine has not increasing amount of biomass. It saved much gas in 2014, despite Ukraine might face the would be wise to benefit from this even the government-imposed 30% deficit of petroleum while remembering that it is not a cut in gas consumption. The latter panacea. Ukraine’s energy survival fact will encourage Moscow to con- products in 2015 in 2015 depends on its survival in the tinue offering Kyiv obscure gas deals hybrid war unleashed by Russia. It as a leverage, and leave Ukraine with the warm period. Ukraine’s financial looks like Ukraine has a good chance few options for coal, between buying crunch will make the task very chal- to stand and win it, often counter it from Russia or from the Russia- lenging. What will the Ukrainian rather than thanks to the efforts of controlled parts of the Donbas. government choose: yet another those in power. 10|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Energy|Politics Ukraine’s energy oligarchs will complain, and some wonder if Mr. Kobolev has the strength to take On Another Front them on. Prices need to be raised to mar- ket levels, with subsidies only for Ukraine needs energy reform to fix the economy the neediest. Energy conglomer- ates, including Naftogaz, must be and weaken Russia’s grip broken up. Ukraine has to do this both to balance its budget and as a member of the European Energy Community treaty. Mr Kobolev ar- gues for shock therapy. “It’s better to cut off the dog’s tail all at once,” he says. This requires politicians to be “brave enough” to deliver un- pleasant news, which Mr Yatse- nyuk promises to do. Yet Mr Yatsenyuk has ducked hard decisions on energy. Inflation ate up an initial price increase de- manded by the IMF. Rather than putting up prices again, Ukraine pushed up taxes on private produc- ers. Mr Yatsenyuk told big manu- facturers to purchase gas exclu- sively from Naftogaz, strengthen- ing its monopoly under the pretext of increasing revenue. “They robbed Peter to pay Putin,” says one foreign diplomat, saying this amounts to “two own goals in a game they can’t afford to lose.” A third was a plan to import coal from South Africa. The deal, meant o: uni a n

t to offset disruption in supplies

pho from eastern Ukraine, ended in an- other scandal over the coal’s qual- AS is flowing again from The new and patchy metering offer ample ity. Russia to Ukraine, but energy officials, pickings. Opaque finances and cen- With separatists in Ukraine’s including blackouts have hit factories Naftogaz’s tral control over extraction, trans- east controlling the biggest coal Gand homes. Ukraine’s prime 36-year-old port, storage and sales allow rent- mines, Ukraine has been forced to minister, , says boss, Andriy seekers to act with impunity. Yevg- buy coal and electricity directly Ukraine’s independence is com- Kobolev, are an eny Bakulin, who led Naftogaz from Russia. Otherwise power promised by its energy dependence improvement under President Viktor Yanu- shortages could have been devas- on Russia. Mykhailo Honchar of kovych, is under investigation for tating, a fact Russia underlined by the Centre for Global Studies in corruption. Yet he has won a seat holding up a coal train at the bor- Kyiv claims that in its battle in in parliament for the Opposition der. Ukraine’s new energy minis- Ukraine, Russia has opened an en- Bloc led by Yuriy Boiko, another ter, Volodymyr Demchyshyn, is ergy front where it has big advan- former Naftogaz official. hoping to retrieve coal from store- tages—thanks to Ukraine’s own The new energy officials, in- houses in the besieged city of failings. cluding Naftogaz’s 36-year-old Debaltseve. Until the 1970s Ukraine pow- boss, Andriy Kobolev, are an im- Meanwhile Ukraine could raise ered the . But since output at its nuclear power sta- independence in 1991, inefficiency tions—if they are safe. An emer- and falling production have left it Ukraine could gency shutdown knocked out a reliant on Russia. The problems raise output at its nuclear plant in southern Ukraine last are crystallised in Naftogaz, a state- month, awakening ghosts of Cher- controlled gas giant with a bigger power stations— nobyl. Worse, Ukraine imports budget deficit than Ukraine. if they are safe most nuclear fuel from Russia, de- Ukraine has spent USD6.4 billion spite increased co-operation with keeping the company afloat this provement. Mr Kobolev is opening Westinghouse, an American firm. year, much of it going to Russia’s © 2014 The up the company’s books. He has se- And Ukraine relies on Russia to Gazprom. Economist cured reverse-flow supplies from store nuclear waste. As Mr. Hon- After Naftogaz was created in Newspaper Slovakia, a deal for imports from char notes, with so many pressure 1998, it soon became a fount of Limited. All Norway and an international loan points, the Kremlin does not need corruption. Artificially low prices rights reserved to refurbish ageing pipelines. But troops to “strangle Kiev”. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|11 politics|Opinion Reforming Ukraine Author: Jan Tombinski, EU Ambassador to Ukraine

- annus horribilis for Ukraine. industry, business and administration. In order to en- However, a year of hope as sure public support for reforms, their burden and costs well. New nation with citizens must be calculated in a way that protects the most vul- 2014well aware of their power and nerable citizens. rights emerged. The times of crisis offer unique momen- For many Ukrainians, the European Union is an ideal tum for in-depth, rapid and irreversible transformations along which democracy, rule of law and free market lov- of politics and economy. Today they are matched up ing society should develop. On many occasions, local with hunger for change in Ukrainian society and with authorities have also declared that the EU-Ukraine As- Maidan’s inspiring spiritual force to transform the post- sociation Agreement will serve them as a national road- Soviet and oligarchic system. Ukraine, assisted by its in- map and toolbox for a broad range of reforms. Today ternational friends and partners from the democratic reforms are mostly needed for Ukraine itself in order to world, has a chance to lay the fundament for a new fu- unlock the potential of Ukrainian economy and of ture. The prerequisite for reforms is always peace. I Ukrainian brains. If fully implemented, such reforms hope very much that Ukrainians will enter into 2015 would first and foremost develop Ukrainian internal with a sense that a peaceful solution to the conflict is market and make the country’s agricultural and indus- emerging. trial exports compliant with European standards, open- Among the best of insurances against any attempts to ing up doors to the world’s largest single market. If suc- undermine the sovereignty and unity is to build a strong cessful on European markets -Ukrainian goods will also democracy and an efficient economy. The new Ukrai- be successful on larger global markets. A well-function- nian leadership has a mandate of citizens to embark on ing Ukrainian economy would then attract large inter- serious, country-changing reforms. There is a broad un- national investments. derstanding of priorities and urgencies to be addressed: Rome was not build in a day and Ukraine will not be re- from banking sector, fight against corruption and en- formed easily and rapidly. A comprehensive vision must ergy efficiency; from the rule of law to the empowering go beyond the immediate crisis by addressing reforms of regional and local structures. The EU and other inter- related to the Constitution, election laws and decentral- national partners are determined to assist Ukrainian ization – all to strengthen Ukrainian statehood for the leadership and society in future. It must also tackle carrying out these wide- issues that do not fall in reaching reforms. Yet as- More than ever Ukraine the immediate remit of As- sistance will only be effec- needs statesmen with sociation agenda, like re- tive if there is a resolute forming complex and busi- action by the Ukrainian a long term vision looking ness-unfriendly taxes sys- leadership and a clear beyond the horizon tem, making labor markets ownership to the reform more flexible by introduc- process. of their current mandate ing easier hiring and firing For any country a reform practice and by supporting process is very difficult and often – very painful. lifelong employees training. Ukraine may dispose of experience gathered by EU As my friend and former European Commissioner member states while reforming different sectors. Janusz Lewandowski once observed -- successful Ukraine should not be considered as an exception from reformers rarely win next elections. More than ever history and from basic laws of economy. Ways of re- Ukraine needs statesmen with a long term vision look- forming experienced by other countries can be applied ing beyond the horizon of their current mandate. A re- in Ukraine as well. In short term, emphasis should be born nation will rally behind those who will embark on put on decisions that do not preclude long term strate- such a reform path and people will reward those coura- gies as set by the Ukrainian President and supported by geous politicians. Examples for similar historical Parliament: with an aim to be able by 2020 to fulfill cri- achievements are provided by some neighboring coun- teria for being considered as a candidate country to the tries of Ukraine, which embarked on the reform paths in European Union. The Association Agreement that en- the 1990s. 25 years ago they shared almost with the tered into force on November 1, 2014 constitutes a same level of GDP with Ukraine, only to see it quadru- guideline for many of much needed reforms. The Euro- pling in comparison to Ukraine in 2014. None of these pean Union will offer its assistance to Ukraine to go countries found itself in such a dramatic situation as along this road. Ukraine today. However, with the aim to construct a However, reforms should be explained to the society new future for Ukraine, well implemented reforms and carried out in a constant open dialogue with repre- should be seen as an important firewall for the protec- sentatives of various branches of Ukrainian civil society, tion of the borders. 12|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 security|intelligence Andriy Levus: “A successful post-revolutionary Ukraine would be the collapse of the Russian project”

Interviewed he Ukrainian Week menko was SBU Chief in 2013- tinued to communicate as we by spoke to the former deputy 2014 under as watched the situation spin out of Roman Malko chief of the Security Ser- President. He is suspected of control after the snipers started Tvice of Ukraine and current state treason and crimes against shooting. He was the one who MP about Ukrainian partisans in humanity and is in hiding in Rus- told us that the snipers were for- the Donbas, reforms in the SBU sia – Ed.). In contrast to the rest eign. My first impression when I and who it worked for prior to of SBU officials, he did not flee entered the SBU premises was of the Maidan. and took some efforts to solve the the German Reichstag after it was conflict peacefully, even when it seized. Papers and weapons were U.W: How has the SBU, Ukraine’s escalated to the bloodshed on In- scattered all over the place, Security Service, changed after stytutska Street (the most violent frightened people were running the Maidan? Has it? phase of the Maidan where doz- back and forth chaotically and a Several of its top officials con- ens of protesters were shot on stove was burning in the court- tacted me after those bloody February 20 – Ed.). His officers yard to destroy documents. Ev- events. One was Yaroslav continued to speak to protesters erything was covered in ash and Chernykh, SBU Deputy Chief un- and negotiate guarantees for the fragments of computers contain- der Yakymenko (Oleksandr Yaky- withdrawal of both sides. We con- ing databases. 14|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 intelligence|security My second strongest impres- were of Western or Central BIO Chief, and as the sion was on February 27, when I Ukrainian origin. They saw what Andriy Levus Interior Minister. Many won- is Member of was already appointed to the was actually going on in the Parliament in the dered why they didn’t do any- SBU. A large number of officers country and with the rule of Ya- 8th convocation thing. In fact, they had no one to started coming to my office; we nukovych, so they sided with the of the Verkhovna work with. 90% of the personnel talked. I felt that there were a lot revolution on the emotional Rada represent- at the Crimean SBU office were of good guys among mid-level level. ing Arseniy Yat- Russian agents, some of them officers and people of the Bureaucracy at the SBU is de- seniuk’s Narod- having dual citizenship. younger generation, who sin- signed so cunningly, that every- niy Front (Peo- cerely love Ukraine, particularly thing is stifled by piles of inqui- ple’s Front). Born U.W: How has the SBU been after the annexation of Crimea ries, interviews, conversations, in Stryi, a small cleaned up so far? Have there began. They are trained, disci- special inspections, and authori- town in Lviv been many criminal cases Oblast, he gradu- against its officials? plined, professional and truly zations of the most primitive or- ated from the patriotic, something that their ders. All this enables the system Ivan Franko Lviv The clean-up began immedi- actions in the counterterrorist to push the stop button for any- University major- ately. One of my functions in the operation area confirm. It was one at any stage. ing in history. Mr. Self-Defence of the Maidan was the SBU that has detained most Levus was a coor- what we called internal security. of the Russian saboteurs and U.W: How strong was Russian dinator at civil We knew who exactly of the se- militants there. influence in the SBU? society move- curity agents worked on the My third biggest impression Oleksandr Yakymenko him- ments including Maidan. Now we can talk about is red tape. I previously thought self was an agent of the Russian Vilni Liudy (Free it - many of them were detained that decision making was quick special services. So were his People) and Opir by the self-defence. We did not (Resistance), at the SBU in order to deal with henchmen. In fact, under Yanu- chief of the make this public at the time. But various issues. What I realized kovych, 90% of those surround- Maidan Self-De- we learned some useful informa- instead is that the system was ing the SBU leadership were res- fence command tion from them. essentially designed to prevent idents of Russia. Moreover, FSB center. Before he By then, I already knew the Ukraine from having a security (the Russian Federal Security was elected to key agents who had to be de- service whatsoever. In the past Service – Ed.) officers worked parliament on tained. But the main ones, such 20 years, every effort has been there on a permanent basis, hav- February 26, as Oleksandr Yakymenko, chief taken to stifle sound initiatives ing their individual offices and 2014, Mr. Levus of counterintelligence Volody- with bureaucracy. Feeble signs separate entrances in key de- served as SBU myr Bik, as well as a number of Deputy Chief of reforms were only seen under partments. During the Maidan, his deputies and closest aides ’s presidency FSB and Vympel (an elite Rus- who organised all anti-Maidan (2005-2010 – Ed.). sian special force unit under the operations, and some Alpha spe- FSB command – Ed.) people cial force officers, have escaped. U.W: After Ukraine gained stayed at one of the SBU bases. Bik has now been arrested – he independence, Soviet security Russian representatives were was No. 3 on our wanted list. agencies in Ukraine merely also in the SBU headquarters. In That list contained 13 more peo- changed their shingles, but the other words, the SBU was di- ple who remained in their posi- methods and the apparatus rectly reformatted into a section tions after the Maidan. They are remained. How much of the of the Russian security service. mainly officers from the K (anti- KGB remains in the post-Maidan The only functions tasked to the corruption) department, who SBU? Ukrainian structure, other than were involved in the financing of The Security Service has un- to represent the FSB, was to pro- the anti-Maidan; hiring titush- dergone a natural transforma- tect Yanukovych and his politi- tion process. After Ukraine cal class and to destroy the op- gained independence, KGB dis- position. These tasks came di- Under Yanukovych, ciples, particularly senior offi- rectly from the Presidential 90% of those surrounding cers, no longer played a notice- Administration. The SBU also able role in the SBU. What we ensured seamless financial the SBU leadership were had left was the ossified struc- flows for the Family from cor- residents of Russia ture, built to serve the interests ruption, customs, contraband of the government and to make and so on. kas – thugs and athletes who at- money. There was also bureau- Meanwhile, the functions of tacked, beat and murdered pro- cracy, the biggest rudimentary protecting statehood, fighting testers; arranging provocations; organ of the Soviet Union. This with terrorism and counterintel- ruining the businesses owned by system stifled everything that ligence were destroyed. All im- people who provided financial was healthy, young and patriotic, portant functions of the SBU support for the Maidan; working so that there would be no devel- were purposefully ruined. When with judges on the mass arrests opment of the SBU. This had the we faced the Crimean crisis, a lot under the January 16 draconian worst effect on the renewal of of the blame went to the officials laws, etc. They were recalled, in- personnel. The criteria for hiring appointed after the Maidan, in- vestigations and criminal pro- people to the SBU left no oppor- cluding as ceedings were initiated and five tunity for the young, educated Acting President, were immediately arrested. and patriotic to get in, let alone as Head of the National Security Then the gradual cleansing be- to get to a top position. Most and Defense Council, Valentyn gan but it is a long way from be- truly patriotic mid-level officers Nalyvaichenko as the new SBU ing finished. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|15 security|intelligence U.W: How were they punished? It is necessary to change the Obviously, some Russian Proceedings against them entire law and take out every- agents are still in Kyiv. But com- are on-going. We could, of thing that breeds corruption in pared to February-May (remem- course, announce some names the SBU. Corruption and treason ber the provocations and at- to calm society somewhat. But often go hand in hand. When a tempts to distabilize the situa- this is more of a chess game. We person is corrupt, he or she is tion with rallies on May 9, WWII are gradually unraveling more easy prey to recruiters from for- Victory Day; the rally in front of tangled knots. On the Maidan, eign intelligence. These are the the Russian Embassy in Kyiv in we intuitively found the provo- basics of intelligence and coun- June after a Ukrainian military cateurs and neutralised them to terintelligence. cargo airplane was knocked the extent possible. However, as down in Eastern Ukraine killing I mentioned earlier, the SBU da- U.W: What happened to Alpha, 49 Ukrainian servicemen; at- tabase was destroyed, and it the special force unit allegedly tempts to declare a “Kyiv Peo- contained information and re- accused of shooting the ple’s Republic” near the Kyiv ports from agents. Some of the protesters? Has it been Pechersk Lavra church, and data was transported to Crimea. reformed? Are its fighters many more), we have definitely Actually, this was the first thing engaged in the anti-terrorist pushed them back. The ones the security service personnel operation? that are still here have become did when it began to flee. This is The situation with Alpha was more careful and understand where the complications began. very complex. I don’t want to of- that they can no longer simply In the first place, we dealt fend anyone, but in contrast to do whatever they like openly. with people whose actions could many special units, these are We have active anti-subversive be proven. Meanwhile, many are real professionals. We spoke to and counterintelligence protec- not yet punished and we are of- some, even during the Maidan. tion in place. Thank goodness ten blamed for that. But I cannot After certain events, they in- we did not have a single terror- reveal all our intentions, be- vited people from the Maidan to ist attack or a seizure of govern- cause the SBU continues to un- check their weapons, to see ment offices in Kyiv. Note that ravel where and with whom they whether the shots had really the Maidan stood here until are connected and what they are been fired. Under Viktor Yanu- mid-summer and foreign agents doing. We are following connec- kovych, part of Alpha was trans- could well have manipulated tions, and this is more impor- formed into private VIP guards. even good intents and slogans to tant than to just publish a re- It was people from this section fuel new protest sentiments. port. We want to destroy the sys- that were in crimes against the That is, by the way, what Rus- tem. Maidan. They acted out of loy- sian special services were doing. alty. Plus, Russian agents were Of course, there have been fre- U.W: How has the system been involved. But most of the unit quent attempts to destabilize reformatted? We often hear members stood by their oaths the situation in the oblasts near reports of separatists walking during the very first anti-terror- the anti-terrorist operation around Kyiv freely and no one area, so foreign agents are pres- arresting them. Is this because ent there, but we also see ongo- of a lack of resources or Without articulating ing detentions of them. negligence? our interests in Eastern I have dozens such testimo- U.W: We have seen a rise of nials. Sometimes they are objec- Ukraine clearly we will guerilla movement in the tive and we must admit our fail- not defend Kyiv Donbas recently. Does the ures. But the SBU consists of SBU have any part in its humans who make mistakes. An- ist operation when the Luhansk creation? other issue is the priorities that SBU office was seized, and I saw Guerrillas are a people’s have been set. Right now, it is this with my own eyes. movement. The only way we can the anti-terrorist operation area Today, Alpha is being re- probably intervene is by coordi- and anti-subversive operations. structured. Young people, in- nating its different parts. There Structural changes are necessary cluding Maidan protesters, in the is no conventional guerilla move- in the SBU for everything to rank of officer, are joining, and ment in the Donbas as we know work more efficiently and sys- the unit is performing its basic it: an organised group operating tematically. But we are operating functions. I think that it will only on occupied territory with sup- within the limits of the former take a short time for it to become port, agents, and so on. Instead, law and structure, with minimal an integral and sound unit. The what you have there is resistance changes. I have seen a range of wounding of Alpha Commander groups, people who stay on the gaps and prepared a draft law on Hennadiy Kuznetsov in the first occupied territory and provide the management of special oper- battle (near Sloviansk – Ed.), information from there, and ac- ations, expanding the SBU’s simply slowed down the process. tion groups that fight with the powers for some operations that In my view, the unit has a good occupiers. Voluntary anti-sub- are urgently needed today. I sub- future. version detachments work on the mitted it through a Member of newly-freed territory to clean it Parliament in the previous con- U.W: How far has the SBU up from the enemy, reveal the vocation of the , progressed in purging Russian enemy’s connections and net- but only 211 MPs supported it. agents? works and get rid of them. There 16|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 intelligence|security is no massive guerilla movement higher benchmark in negotia- view, Putin is conducting a de- there. tions for the interests of fensive, rather than an offensive Ukraine. Of course, we have a war. A successful post-revolu- U.W: Is it possible to win this weaker army. But our people are tionary Ukraine would be the war through negotiations and not as brainwashed as the Rus- collapse of the Russian project. truces? sians are, that’s why we should He is defending himself from This is unrealistic. All wars demand more. that, because he understands end with truces and some agree- Ukraine and its authorities that he can no longer fool any- ments, but the problem lies else- have to articulate these inter- one. If he had not interfered in where. You have to know who ests and use them as a strategy either Crimea or the Donbas, we you are talking to. Having a dia- – then tactics will emerge. We would have conducted reforms logue with puppets like Denis are now discussing how well our and he would have been got rid Pushylin (a leader of separatists checkpoints in Eastern Ukraine of very quickly – within a year. in Donetsk Oblast, an organizer are placed all over Facebook and He is conducting a defensive of pro-Russian rallies in spring on all TV channels. At the same war. This has to be understood 2014, self-proclaimed ex-deputy time, we are missing important and we should not dream about a speaker of the Donetsk People’s things. We are not talking about buffer zone that is kilometres Republic. In July, Pushylin fled the consequences of the South long, but we must already think to Moscow and announced his Stream termination or the new about how we will rule Tyumen. I resignation – Ed.) who do not relations between Russia and may seem emotional, but this is decide anything on their own China, although this should be the direction we have to take. We territory means supporting Mos- of interest to us. We have a nat- cow’s myth that this is not Rus- ural geopolitical interest in the sian occupation. But it is exactly East confirmed by a thousand Putin is conducting a that, so Russia should be recog- years of our history. We colo- defensive, rather than an nized as the aggressor, Ukraine nised it and brought the light of should turn to the Budapest Christianity and civilisation offensive war. If he had not Memorandum signatories and there. Being on the border of interfered in Ukraine, we speak to Russia in that format, Europe and Asia, we have to not to the Donetsk or Luhanks think in those terms. Only then would have conducted People’s Republics. As soon as will we know where the check- reforms and he would have we do all this homework of ours points should actually be. But and strengthen our army in the while generals spend time been gone very quickly meantime, the world may find thinking about where to put itself on the verge of a global them, Russia will grab another should use all our economic, conflict but the entire global oblast from us. We have to re- family and other connections system of checks and balances orientate ourselves from the with Russia that Putin is cur- will finally start working. If we strategy of national defence to a rently exploiting against us in a don’t do our homework, do not strategy of national offensive. reverse mode. This is where suc- fight and keep wearing rose-col- This is a key change of the men- cess lies. ored glasses of pacifism, why tal paradigm that has to take would someone from Alabama place in our minds. It would U.W: Can we expect our current or the UK fight for us? help us deal with many prob- parliament to take any of these lems effectively. steps? U.W: Is the latest attack in I think that if at least part of Grozny, the Chechen capital, U.W: Can this happen anytime the promises on national secu- somehow related to Ukraine? soon? rity and foreign policy are ful- We are now seeing a geopo- That’s what we have come to filled, as set forth in the coalition litical domino, and Ukraine is parliament for. We can keep agreement, the current parlia- the first piece that can make the talking about winter uniforms ment will be a hero. And we have line fall. Our task is to ensure for the military (which undoubt- all the preconditions in place to that this wave does not stop edly is crucial and our sacred implement them: for the first here. Without articulating our duty), but that will not change time in the modern history of interests in Eastern Ukraine anything. We will only develop Ukraine, we have a constitu- clearly we will not defend Kyiv. the right perspective by choosing tional, legitimate, anti-Kremlin Paradoxically, whenever we sug- a different strategy (and what is and pro-European majority. gest that we could come to an a strategy? It is a law, which gen- That could bring us a huge agreement with Russia about erates a framework for a military breakthrough. If we waste this something peacefully, that doctrine, reform of the army, chance, I really don’t know what means that it will definitely grab creation of special operation will happen. And that will be a something from us. If, on the forces). Ukraine does not yet tragedy. I strongly believe that contrary, we declare our claims have this at the level of state ad- the blood shed by the heroes of and geopolitical interests, sup- ministration. Moreover, we lack the Maidan and anti-terrorist port the liberation movement of experience in conducting war. operation will not be wasted. Our the oppressed nations within the Sun Tzu said that we have to de- victory will be the best commem- Russian Federation and opt for a fine ourselves and determine oration for them. That is why we proactive position, we can set a what our opponent wants. In my will win. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|17 Donbas|Society Is Donbas Really so Hopeless?

Author: Western Ukrainian liberals have Ihor Losev finally realized that Ukraine is not their part of the country alone and ven progressive and pro- are horrified to find out that the Ukrainian people from this rest of Ukraine is not that like- region are often pessimistic minded after all. They then want about the Donbas and its to get away from regions that are There has E always been population, saying that most lo- in a different cultural paradigm. an active and cals are completely hopeless, it’s Why thoughts of escape, rather constructive impossible to get through to their than battle have emerged in a cer- pro-Ukrainian brains or souls, and it’s unrealistic tain part of the Ukrainian intelli- minority in the to change the socio-political land- gentsia, is another matter. Unfor- Donbas, which scape of their territory; it’s like a tunately, these are also the very official Kyiv black hole on the map of Ukraine, thoughts of some pro-Ukrainian ignored a kind of huge demographic and intellectuals in Eastern oblasts... psychological well, the bottom of a However, the reasons for the Ukraine into a fiction within the mine, from which it is impossible disconsolate situation in the Don- borders of this region, could have to claw a way out to the surface. bas and Crimea must often be made a deep and lasting impres- These Ukraine-oriented peo- looked for in Kyiv, not in these sion on its residents, convincing ple from the Donbas are sceptical particular regions. In 23 years them that Kyiv is definitely a nu- about prospects for their region as of independence, there has not cleus of progress, law and justice, part of Ukraine, and are convinced been a single patriotic government capable of both coming to an that most of the population of the of action, not words, which could agreement and coercion. But it Donbas is still waiting for Putin’s have proposed an alternative for emerged that Viktor Yushchen- “paradise” while seeing a united the problematic regions and im- ko’s Kyiv was merely the resi- Ukraine only as part of Russia. In plemented it with the required in- dence of a different clan, not from my view, the only thing that is flexibility. Throughout these the Donbas. hopeless in Ukraine is its authori- years, official Kyiv did not even at- Another Yushchenko regime, ties. Because, as Isa Akaev, Com- tempt to withstand the efforts of with all of its catastrophic pros- mander of the Krym volunteer neo-imperial Moscow in the Don- pects for Ukraine, is reviving in battalion rightly noted in an inter- bas, giving this territory as prey to Kyiv today, in an endless pseudo- view, the problem with Ukraine is pro-Russian oligarchic forces, democratic demagogy, excess that it is not even governed by which, having transformed it into rhetoric about reforms that don’t businessmen, but by hagglers. its own powerful bridgehead, ulti- exist and a glaring lack of practical Hagglers are incapable of thinking mately even took power in Kyiv. It steps. Another period of imitation strategically and far-sightedly. was a miracle that they did not ful- in Ukrainian history? Their basic instinct, figuratively fil the plans of the Kremlin regard- A quick and decisive (com- speaking, is to grab a piece of pork ing the whole of Ukraine. pletely possible in June – July fat and immediately eat it under a The Ukrainian government 2014) crushing defeat of the sepa- quilt, even if it makes them sick. had a unique chance in 2005. If ratists and terrorists in the Don- In truth, Ukraine is a country the favourite slogan of the Orange bas, instead of the current ATO with a complex regional composi- Revolution – “Bandits to prisons” epic with uncertain chances for tion. But most of the countries in – had been implemented back success, would have done far more Europe and the world are the then, the criminal mafia elite for the Ukrainianisation of this re- same, while monolithic ones, such would have been eliminated from gion, than “special laws”, “the ex- as Japan, where 99.5% of the pop- the Donbas. This is what could pansion of the region’s rights”, ulation is made up of ethnic Japa- have revived it as a fully-fledged “the special status of the Donbas” nese, are a minority. So it is not Ukrainian region. The Donbas re- and other pseudo-legal and politi- worth counting on the fact that all spects force and does not accept cal speculations. regions of Ukraine will be full of those, who “drive on empty”, Much is said about the mass patriots wearing embroidered even if this “empty” is very demo- Russification of the Donbas with shirts, particularly if with Russia cratic and patriotic. So a graphic the help of the Russian mass me- continuously fanning the flames of example of such force, directed dia. Could the Kyiv authorities, separatist sentiments, to the point against local criminal “feudal who did nothing for the protection of the armed intervention of the lords”, whose government was of the rest of Ukraine from this in- Russian army in the Donbas. transforming the Constitution of formation avalanche, have with- 18|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Society|Donbas Beobachter was not published in flirt (out of habit!) with the inspir- London when Britain was at war ers and financiers of the Donbas against Nazi . So far, no (see p. 22), diligently one has actually and consistently guarding their business and in- attempted to protect the Donbas come, not causing them any from the Kremlin’s brainwashing. bother. Such policy of force, which And what can be said about the is consolidated around Porosh- Donbas, when propaganda is enko – Yatsenyuk, is not only con- given out at every underground ducted in the Donbas, but also in station in Kyiv – in free copies of the rest of the regions (there are the newspaper Vesti (News). No concerns that they will have the one can explain the source of its same result). The most vivid ex- financing... Of course, there are ample is that of Kharkiv City regions which are the most prone Mayor, , whose to anti-Ukrainian propaganda, be- position was, and continues to be cause of the array of political, cul- quite anti-Ukrainian. However, tural and historic circumstances. not a single attempt to eliminate This pertains to the Donbas and this situation, which poses a threat Crimea first and foremost... to Kharkiv and the rest of the Today, the re-cultivation of country, has been seen. the Donbas should lie in cleans- Official Kyiv’s current policy in ing this territory of the rotten lo- the Donbas is to reject revolution- cal nomenclature. Everyone who ary changes (which were already cooperated with treasonable ele- needed yesterday), keep the per- ments and all traitors in the envi- sonnel of Rinat Akhmetov and ronment of the police, court, (see p. 20) stood this? Is there any point in prosecutor’s office, SBU employ- personnel in office and avoid steps saying that convincing the resi- ees, heads of administrations and directed towards the punishment dents of the Donbas will not give their apparatuses, must be re- of traitors. It should be noted that results, if no one has even tried to lieved of their duties without the the overall Poroshenko – Yatse- do this? For 23 years, the Kremlin right to reinstatement, and nyuk course is reformative rheto- used information to terrorise brought to justice. After all, they ric without any practical transfor- Ukraine, and it was only during a betrayed their civil servant’s oath. real war, that some of the most The cleaning up of local councils, pathologically-militant TV chan- as well as all other government It was with approval nels were switched off in Ukraine. structures is also necessary, using from Kyiv, that the Donbas However, it is too soon to rejoice. the same method. People who It has been confirmed that the TV proved their loyalty to Ukraine at gradually transformed transmission centre, which broad- this difficult time should be ap- into a kind of state casts the Kremlin’s propaganda in pointed to all key positions. the Donbas, is paid for by... Kyiv. There has always been quite within a state, with little Such publications as Trud v an active and constructive pro- control from the centre, Ukrayine (Work in Ukraine), Iz- Ukrainian minority in the Donbas, vestiya v Ukraine (News in which official Kyiv ignored. It did and absolute rule Ukraine), Komsomolskaya Pravda not hear this pro-Ukrainian Don- of an oligarchic clan v Ukrayine (Komsomol Truth in bas, while closely listening to the Ukraine), Moskovsky Komsomo- whims of the anti-Ukrainian one lets v Ukrayine (Moscow Komso- instead, gratifying it with subsi- mations, which has already led to mol in Ukraine), etc., still exist. dies worth billions of dollars , the a situation where representatives So what can be expected from total handover of power and re- of the previous regime, close to the authorities that tolerate and in- sponsibilities in the region, and Yanukovych Family, win court dulge this? And their attempts to indifference to local policy on ide- cases against the current govern- actually do something, such as es- ology and values. ment. A joke goes that very soon, tablishing a Ministry of Informa- It was with approval from a court will rule that Yanukovych tion Policy, have provoked the Kyiv, that the Donbas was trans- was stripped out of his powers frenzied bellowing and screaming formed into a kind of state within illegally and should be reinstated of “democratic journalists”, who a state, with little control from the as president. Without decisive don’t want any restrictions on centre, and the absolute rule of an chan­­ges in Kyiv, it is obvious that freedom of speech during military oligarchic clan over the life and nothing will change for the better action, so that no one prevents the heads of local communities. in the Donbas either, because in Kremlin from using its own mass Without doubt, the Kyiv-oli- an ideological confrontation, there media to ruin Ukraine from in- garchic leadership in no way tried will be no arguments that would side. Meanwhile, the most demo- to create a strategic Kyiv – Donbas lead to a victory there. cratic countries of the world im- axis with the progressive pro- And ordinary people in the posed certain restrictions in the Ukrainian anti-oligarchic forces Donbas and Crimea are far less information sphere during war- there. Even now, it is not striving hopeless than the officials in time. The newspaper Volkische for this, considering it better to downtown Kyiv. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|19 Donbas|Separatism in Luhansk ground, they will most likely rush into their final battle against each A War in the Luhansk other. The information war between the two groups has raged for quite a while now. They made several at- People’s Republic tempts to unite against Ukraine but squabbles soon resumed every time. Author: tion established in early May 2014 The influence of the Yefremov Denys Kazanskyi to participate in the conflict in group in has been Eastern Ukraine. The group con- fading lately, quite in contrast to Widely perceived as the eco- trols almost all of the rest of the oc- the clout of the “Cossacks”. This is nomic and political tandem of the cupied territory in Luhansk Oblast. hardly surprising. Yefremov and Donbas, Luhansk and Donetsk The two groups have been in a flac- his team have long ago repelled Lu- oblasts have actually never been cid conflict with each other, seeing hansk residents. The unrests that equal partners. Compared to the the Ukrainian army as the primary took place there in spring were overpowering Donetsk, Luhansk opponent so far. However, as soon both against the new government and the oblast looked like a provin- as some sort of a truce gains in Kyiv, and the brazen corrupt of- cial backyard. Donetsk was the dis- “Mayors” of occupied cities in Luhansk Oblast ficials in Luhansk. Supporters of play window, polished and the unrest believed that the “Lu- glammed up, while Luhansk re- Luhansk hansk People’s Republic” would mained an all-time loser friend. Manolis Pilavov, bring about new people to replace Donetsk had discipline and order; First Deputy Mayor of Luhansk since 2006, the old officials and the rotten sys- member of the Party of Regions Luhansk had a never-ending mess, tem. That never happened. Very squabbles, intrigues and corrup- Stakhanov soon, Yefremov’s role behind the tion so clumsy that it was hard to Serhiy Zhevlakov, Mayor LNR project became obvious. hide. of Stakhanov in 2002–2006 and 2008– At first, an unknown Valeriy The tragic developments of the 2010, member of the Party of Regions Bolotov was appointed the LNR past year hardly changed this. The Brianka leader. People soon recognized him “Donetsk People’s Republic” Mykola Morhunov, as Yefremov’s supervisor of ko- (DNR) has some stability because Deputy Mayor of Brianka in 2006–2010, panky, illegal coal mines in the it is under total control of Oplot, a Mayor since 2010, member Donbas. He was then replaced by group officially promoting itself as of the Party of Regions Ihor Plotnitskiy, an unknown civil a no-rules fight club and an active servant who was a better candidate participant of the anti-Maidan in Alchevsk for the new face in the “govern- Natalia Piatakova, Deputy Mayor Kharkiv in spring 2014, as well as of Alchevsk since 2013, member ment”. in the latest developments in East- of the Party of Regions Then, Yefremov ran out of ern Ukraine. The occupied part of “new faces” so Plotnitskiy was Luhansk Oblast is by contrast tor- Perevalsk forced to hire trustworthy people mented by the usual chaos. Its ter- Vitaliy Mykhailov, Head who had been solidifying the clout ritory has turned into an arena for of the Perevalsk State County Administra- of Yefremov’s clan in Luhansk the squabbles of the rival criminal tion since 2010, member of the Party of Oblast for many years. On Decem- Regions groups that have been interested in ber 2, Ihor Plotnitskiy appointed 12 fighting with each other more than Rovenky city “mayors”, all of them ex-Party in resisting the Ukrainian army. Serhiy Kniazhev, City Council of Regions members and long-time They do not care about civilians, Deputy since 2006, Acting Mayor since loyal men of Yefremov. which makes the havoc and hunger 2013, member of the Party of Regions Manolis Pilavov, ex-deputy in the insurgency-covered part of Krasnodon mayor of Luhansk, became the cur- Luhansk Oblast worse than in Serhiy Kozenko, Deputy rent city mayor, while the neigh- Donetsk. Mayor of Krasnodon since 2006, bouring Stakhanov, Brianka and The occupied part of Luhansk member of the Party of Regions Rovenky got ex-Party of Regions Oblast is split between the groups Serhiy Zhevlakov, Mykola Morhu- of Oleksandr Yefremov, Head of Pervomaysk nov and Serhiy Kniazhev, former Luhansk Oblast State Administra- Yevheniy Ishchenko, legitimate mayors of these cities. aka Malysh, a Russian citizen from Nizhniy Party of Regions’ Vitaliy Mykhailov, tion in 1998-2005, elected Party of Novgorod, served two sentences in prison Regions MP in 2006 and head of Head of Perevalsk County State the Party of Regions faction in the Administration, became the mayor Verkhovna Rada in 2010, and the Sverdlovsk of Perevalsk. Pervomaisk and “” under the leader- Andriy Sukhachov, Sverdlovsk are the only cities with ship of Nikolai Kozitsyn, a Russian a militant from Yevheniy Onyshchenko and Andriy citizen. Yefremov’s people are in Luhansk Sukhachov, members of the Cos- Luhansk and present themselves as sack militant groups, as mayors. the “Luhansk People’s Republic” Lutuhyne In addition to the loyal mayors (LNR). Kozitsyn’s group makes up Yegor Russkiy, appointed by Plotnitskiy, Yefre- the “Great Don Cossack National LNR militant, Russian citizen mov’s people are in the top eche- Guard”, a paramilitary organiza- from Ukhta, Komi Republic lons of the LNR. One is Oleh Aki- 20|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 mov, the “head of the LNR trade were visiting relatives. They stayed at unions”, a Party of Regions man known private apartments… Next day, prior to for a corruption scandal. Before the the expected arrival of the military con- war, he was director of Sports for All, a voy, these groups began to storm the public institution receiving millions of building where the Cossack National hryvnias from the budget to set up Guard headquarters were located. A sports grounds in town that never actu- shootout began. Commander of a spe- ally appeared. Known in Luhansk as cial unit of the Antratsyt garrison Yefremov’s creature, Akimov switched Shakhtar (Miner) and a guard were to work for the separatists after the shot. Three more Cossacks were LNR was proclaimed. wounded. Prapor, the commandant of The Party of Regions’ Rodion Miro- Antratsyt, was shot in the heart. His shnyk is another of Yefremov’s sea- heart stopped beating 15 minutes soned men and a long-time director of later… The Cossack National Guard Luhansk Oblats Television (LOT). He rapid response team arrived 10 min- personally hosted pro-Russian rallies utes later and purged the headquarters in Luhansk this spring asking people to building from the LNR fighters. One rise for insurgency. After the war be- assaulter was shot. Four were taken gan, he left Luhansk but returned re- captive, others escaped. When the cently to join the separatists. apartments where they stayed were Yefremov’s people never boasted searched, Dragunov sniper rifles, brilliant managerial skills. Thanks to Shmel portable rocket launchers, gre- them, Luhansk Oblast always dragged nades and rifles were found. War pris- behind all others in Ukraine in various oners with LNR IDs are being interro- ratings. This explains why the new gated. Disarmed by a diversionist “LNR government” outraged many ide- group, the military convoy turned ological separatists who were very well around and headed towards Luhansk. aware of the moral qualities and cor- Several minutes later, news popped up ruption appetites of Yefremov’s people. on the official LNR website of the “LNR The “Cossack” field commanders soon police force and a Cossack unit that began to accuse Plotnitskiy’s team of neutralized an armed gang,” Oksana treason and embezzlement. Cossack Shkoda said. leader Kozitsyn insisted that Plotnits- The latest episode in the standoff of kiy paid the Ukrainian military for a the Cossack groups with the Yefremov- corridor to escape to Russia. Plotnitskiy gang was a hysterical accu- The local branch of Natalia Vitren- sation of the “LNR authorities” of steal- ko’s Progressive Socialist Party of ing humanitarian aid by Yevhen Ukraine is another ardent critic of Plot- Ishchenko, the separatist-appointed nitskiy. Branch head Liubov Korsakova mayor of Pervomaisk. He pledged to known for pleas to ban people with return to Luhansk with arms unless the Lviv registration from entering Lu- “LNR authorities” provided better sup- hansk Oblast made in 2009 wears a plies of food and necessary items to the Cossack hat today and openly speaks of city. Ihor Plotnitskiy as a traitor. Frustration over the leaders of the Vostok (East), the newspaper she self-proclaimed republic will obviously edits, says that Plotnitskiy’s team has grow, especially given the fact that Lu- “traded coal from Antratsyt and pock- hansk gets far better supplies com- eted the revenues, causing an armed pared to the rest of the oblast. Local clash between the local Cossacks and princelings blame the humanitarian di- Plotnitskiy’s raider group”. Ksenia saster and massive unemployment on Shkoda, a journalist now working for Plotnitskiy and his people, persuading the separatists, described the conflict the locals that the LNR is headed by that took between the LNR militants traitors and crooks. and Kozitsyn’s Cossack National Guard At the same time, Yefremov’s peo- in Antratsyt in detail to The Free Press, ple are probably more convenient part- a Russian website. The Cossack com- ners both for the LNR supervisors in mander of the city was killed in the Russia and for the Ukrainian side than stand-off. “That day, the Cossack Na- the incontrollable criminals in Cossack tional Guard headquarters got a radio attire. This means that the squabbles message from its checkpoints of a mili- amongst the militants will continue, so tary convoy heading to Antratsyt from suggestions of ceasing the war and re- the LNR-controlled Lutuhino. When suming peaceful life in Luhansk Oblast asked ‘where and why are you going?’ are pre-term. The region will most they replied ‘it’s none of your busi- likely face a slew of violent criminal ness’,” she said in the comment. “The scandals and redistribution of the sto- day before groups in civilian clothes ar- len property. It is next to impossible to rived in Antratsyt claiming that they guess who will win the standoff. Donbas|Separatism The Union of Donetsk and the Kremlin he Ukrainian media offer to lay all the blame for the blood- Donbas and force the new govern- countless versions of who Author: shed on just one person, as is ment in Kyiv to concede and share actually started the war in Yegor Firsov sometimes done today. Putin power with the Donetsk clans, at Tthe Donbas. They blame Pu- would not have come into Ukraine least in the oblasts which they tin, separatists that are not subor- if the fifth column did not help him considered to be their own. I don’t dinate to anyone, oligarchs or the locally. The separatists, too, would know what agreements they Party of Regions. To this day, not succeed without help from the reached with the Kremlin at that there is no consensus as to Kremlin. Everyone who absolves time, but Putin was apparently whether the turmoil in the Donbas one of the parties of responsibility supposed to play the role of a is an occupation, an anti-terrorist and says that “this is an internal monster in this show and force operation or a civil war. I come conflict, there are no Russian Kyiv into negotiations with the from Donetsk and I was in the armies in the Donbas” or con- Donetsk clans. Judging by the way heart of the turmoil when it versely, that “this is a Russian oc- events developed, it is more than started this spring, so I would like cupation, and locals do not support likely that this was the case until to offer some clarification. it”, is wrong. April. But Kyiv did not give in, the In contrast to most regular cit- Local authorities initiated the situation was deadlocked and izens, who saw the riots from out- anti-Ukrainian putsch in Donetsk. Moscow sent saboteurs to the side, I knew the process from in- For me, as a local politician, this Donbas to help their allies. Until side. From the very first days, I was no secret, but people behind Russians entered Slovyansk, the clearly understood that there was the organisation of the riots were destructive process was super- a guided, controlled rebellion, in quite successful in leading journal- vised by local clans. Without which everyone skilfully played ists and society by the nose. Just in them, there simply would not have the roles designated to them. Ini- case the Maidan was victorious, been any riots. As an organiser of tially, it was controlled by the local Plan B was already developed by numerous anti-government pro- authorities, or more accurately, the henchmen of Donetsk oligarchs tests in Donetsk in 2012–2013, I the representatives of various in January, at the time when Kyiv can confirm that local authorities Donetsk-based oligarchic clans. It saw its first fatalities, and it was be- can easily break up any meeting, was only later, in mid-April that coming clear that Yanukovych may and any massive event can only Russian saboteurs appeared in the be toppled. In mid-month, the fu- take place after a green light from Donbas, taking leading roles and ture “DNR ministers”, under the them. When we were gathering drawing international attention to leadership of the local authorities, people for Rise, Ukraine rally in themselves. began to meticulously prepare de- Donetsk, Horlivka’s authorities Would a war have flared up if tachments of titushkas in Donetsk blocked the road to it with cars, the Russian subversive groups had Oblast, that were used against the pretending that there was a car ac- not come to the Donbas? I am Donetsk , and sent to cident, so no one could drive out convinced that it would not have. of Horlivka for an hour. When we Igor Girkin aka Strelkov (a Rus- Local authorities wanted to conduct an AutoMaidan sian citizen and organizer of the and go to Yanukovych’s home, DNR insurgency – Ed.) said in an initiated the anti-Ukrainian once again, all the roads were interview that the war would not blocked by cars filled with titush- have begun without his participa- putsch in Donetsk kas. When we sent people by bus tion. Would Russian saboteurs to Kyiv, the road police stopped have come to the Donbas if the Kyiv. This work was supervised by them on the road, while titushkas groundwork had not been laid by the Secretary of the Donetsk City punctured the bus wheels. In collaborators from the local au- Council, Serhiy Bohachov, and the March, Donetsk officials suddenly thorities and provocateurs? Once well-known Party of Regions mem- turned a blind eye to all the mass again, no. Today, we already know ber and director of various munici- riots. Their organizers could do that Putin did not prepare a pal enterprises, Oleksiy Hranovs- anything: lease transport from Crimea-like scenario for the Don- kiy, who later became a “DNR min- carriers supervised by the authori- bas, and small subversive groups ister”. While their thugs were ties, gather and bring in people for would never have managed to do pounding civilians in the centre of meetings and park in places where in Eastern Ukraine what the little Donetsk, Hranovskiy and Boha- parking is not permitted. This was green men did in Crimea. chov were wandering nearby and all done by people who had previ- In this conflict, internal and ex- talking quietly. ously gathered people for anti- ternal enemies of Ukraine worked The point of their Plan B was Maidan manifestations. The police in tandem, so it would be a mistake to provoke mass unrest in the and SBU did not interfere. 22|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Separatism|Donbas anyone. He did not manage the uprising in the spring of 2014, as some supposed. He was simply tasked with organization of the large-scale and expensive perfor- mance, something he did bril- liantly. I can speak of every “minister” in this show but that would be too much honor. They are all people hand-fed by the local nouveau riche. This is why I find it funny, when Donetsk Mayor Oleksandr Lukyanchenko now appears on Rinat Akhmetov’s TV channel and presents himself as the victim of circumstances. I remember well when on March 1, he, together with the city council, called for an illegal referendum. He did not see me – I stood and observed his gala performance. It dismays me to see how Rinat Akhmetov is once more tak- ing the role of a patron and bene- factor. He is supposedly helping people on the territory, where, with his own hands, he previously did everything to light the fire of war. By the way, his business in the zone controlled by separatists is operating without any disrup- tions. Needless to say, no one in- tends to take anything away from Akhmetov. No one nationalised his mines, wages are paid there o by U krinform o by

t and mining continues.

P ho And there is nothing unusual in the fact that we once again hear The chaos was completely member. Throughout the last de- Rinat talks of the Donbas as an inalien- Akhmetov’s managed, because Donetsk was cade, Khryakov lived on hand-outs business able part of Ukraine, but one with not paralysed by a mass of people from Kolesnikov, was involved in operates a special status in a federalized unlike Kyiv last winter. Only political provocations and carried undisrupted in country. The rhetoric of Russia 2-3,000 people, who had virtually out orders. Before the 2012 elec- the separatist- and its friends from the local fifth no weapons, participated in the tion, using the Party of Regions controlled column have returned to that, storming of buildings. Local au- funds, he tried to organise a raider zone, which from which they started in spring. thorities pretended that they were attack of our UDAR branch, of means that For Ukraine, acceptance of dealing with a powerful public which I was the leader. This at- he has certain such conditions is tantamount to protest, which was impossible to tempt failed. guarantees capitulation. This is precisely why overcome. Pasha Gubarev is also well- from them the government is not making At the head of this “protest” known in our political circles. For concessions to the Kremlin and were provocateurs that were well- many years, he organised different gangs. Without doubt, Putin known throughout the city. At that actions, including children’s par- would find it very convenient if time, no one in Ukraine was aware ties and political campaign shows. Ukraine had its own Chechnya who all these people were, but we In 2006, he worked for Mykola and the entire country paid dues in Donetsk knew them very well. Levchenko (a Ukrainophobic for- to Donetsk clans. But such an op- And it was obvious who organised mer MP, member of the Party of tion will be a catastrophe for us the uprising, and why. For exam- Regions – Ed.), then Serhiy Be- and an end to our statehood. ple, I still remember the current shuli (a former politician, now for- Russian version of federalisa- “DNR minister”, Oleksandr Kh- gotten by all), his wife drafted tion is nothing like federalism in ryakov, from school. I was still some city improvement projects Germany or Switzerland. For writing dictations when he was al- for the city council and received them, it’s a way to impose slavery ready giving money for participa- grants for their implementation. on us. But the Ukrainian nation tion in meetings against Viktor All that time, Gubarev was an er- has fought too long for its freedom Yushchenko in 2005 and defended rand boy for the Party of Regions, and ultimately gained it at too the then arrested Borys Kolesn- had good relations with the local high a price. It is not going to give ikov, a notorious Party of Regions authorities and posed no threat to it up just like that. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|23 Donbas|Society Donetsk and Phantoms of Capitalism People never really liked them. They would call them “capitalists” and “oligarchs” even if these “capitalists” owned no more than a chain of three stores or a small confectionary

Donetsk businessmen saw their city and region as Ukrainian and European. They still hope it will be exactly that

Author: eople did not call them that zled budgets, so it could be wasted “You’d have to design a so- Olena out of envy, although the as remorselessly. phisticated scheme to talk them Stiazhkina, feeling was partly present The “capitalists” were differ- into buying a new apartment or Donetsk Ptoo. They just didn’t trust ent. Their money was earned building a house, and work on it these “capitalists”. Paradoxically, with sweat and blood. They for a year or two,” their wives la- they had nothing in common with would never waste a penny. One ment. the nouveau riche who showed off factory owner, rumors had it, These people never seemed their clout with expensive cars, bought his first foreign-made car warm, open and easy-going. Sus- covered their weakness with just two years ago. And he got a picious, laconic, too rational, very gloomy and muscular guards, and used one. calm and cold as ice even when recovered their long-gone chances Another guy, the owner of a they are mad with rage. “You can’t with young wives, happily living in company with several hundreds of wrench your heart on everything, the “power brings money” para- trucks, travels to work by public it will fail at some point if you do. digm. This money came easily transport and shops at discount Don’t react to stress. Just learn to from cozy top offices and embez- stores. live without feeling pain. No pain 24|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 at all… But you know, I’ve just real- the “capitalists” fell in love with ized recently that it’s all inter- their cause step by step. The joy of twined. Once you lose the ability to what they have done, built, pro- feel pain, you lose the ability to feel duced and accumulated, trans- joy too,” one says. formed them into sexy men with They seemed terrible, espe- shiny eyes from the dull and cially against the backdrop of offi- gloomy husbands. The wives could cials who gained windfall profits not get this. The employees often easily and splurged on anything hated them for it, for their fault- that shined, shuffled and moved. finding, scrutiny, profound knowl- Boring, dull and gloomy, they actu- edge of all processes, and greedi- ally studied how their business ness. It was next to impossible to works: how greenhouses are built persuade such a boss to raise one’s and tomatoes raised. How warm salary. the greenhouse should be to grow Greediness would often win. arugula. What covers the floors in Plenty of unemployed workforce gyms. Is this some special material allowed them to get rid of capri- or can something cheaper be used. cious employees quickly. When How the weight machines work they dealt with unique profession- with the body. How the equipment als, however, they would pay and producing food film is designed. forgive anything. Where the stoves for bricks are sold and can they build one on their A few words on ethics own. These Donetsk “capitalists” called a Some had university degrees in a spade. “Prove that you’re engineering, physics or linguistics. priceless, then ask for a salary,” Some dropped out of school after they would say. This was painful to eight years. Some were brilliant in- hear because we all think we are tellectuals in high schools, and oth- priceless. But this was sobering, ers could hardly utter two words in too, motivating some to develop a sentence. and others to dream of revenge, What they all knew was every terrible and inevitable, that would detail of their business – from the make the “capitalists” lose every- smallest screws to the quality of thing. Who knew that it would paint on the office walls, from come true one day? markers of commodity exchanges Our businessmen were never to long-term forecasts for interest brave or revolutionary, not in life at rate fluctuations. They could speak least. Conservative, prone to com- of their dairy, paper, cucumbers, promise and quietness that the trucks, a restaurant or houses for money loves. They did not protest hours. They thought of all this when they faced pressure and 24/7. They knew the names of the agreed to integrate “supervisors” chef, head of the shift and the first, and then representatives of storekeeper, their characters, the authorities into their manage- drinking problems, weddings and ment boards. They were not rebels. divorces. This was not an emo- But they did endure everything tional bond, but pragmatic reason- toothlessly, too. ing. Their profits depended on the Their rule was to be friends quality of their employees’ work. with the useful people. This friend- Money… The “capitalists” did ship was as distanced and re- not spend it: they invested it into strained as possible. They would business development. “Why do never get too close because it was you need this? Why don’t you not pragmatic and too expensive to stop?” their friends wondered. be friends with top officials. That How could they stop when they friendship required extra spending were doing the business of their on entertainment and adventures life? for the horde of civil servants. The Business. Company. They “capitalists” preferred small dozes. would not say this proudly, even Although giving away a share of when they were alone. Yet, they your business can hardly be con- truly enjoyed the growth and devel- sidered a small doze. opment of their cause. They chose to simply pay if they They were less interested in had a choice between bribes and money. Starting with primitive mo- friendship. The smiles, handshakes tivations, such as getting out of and parties for the children did not poverty, making life easier for the make the “capitalists” any closer or children, leaving misery behind, friendlier to those from top offices. Donbas|Society “When he says that he’s a busi- dren should learn business at biggest treasure, so they should be nessman and goes to work as an home, not abroad. International learning to write and read, not fall official, what kind of a business- experience is helpful, of course, on the ground covering their heads man is he?” they thought. “If you but only as a bonus. when the bomb is falling. can steal more at a government of- Are they patriots? They Some took their families else- fice than what you can earn from wouldn’t say that of themselves. where and stayed in the occupied your business, we are doomed as They would probably not think of territory. Some have dozens of em- society and country,” was their themselves as patriots, too. They ployees, others have hundreds. verdict. They dressed, ate and en- insist on being exclusively prag- They are responsible for these peo- tertained themselves modestly. matic. In practice, however, they ple. They are not going to raise They wanted to stand out through do prove to be patriotic. their salaries, but they will still pay this manifested difference that them. And there are old, weak and challenged the extravagance of the Where are they now? lonely people left in the city for local “aristocrats”. They were the first robbed. The whom they are now responsible, Time is money. Therefore, they Family came and took away their too. did not accept being late to a meet- business. It offered USD 1mn for Not a single “capitalist” has ing and waiting for someone, wast- the business that was worth USD joined the DNR puppets. They do ing time on reading fiction – only 10mn. When the “capitalists” re- not register their businesses anew special books, sitting at restaurants, sisted, it would put them in jail in the occupied territory. Paying traveling and staying at five-star ho- and take the business for free. to the regime’s supervisors is one tels (they preferred affordable ho- Some are still behind bars. Some thing. Registering a business in an tels on business trips). They are free – they have paid to get economic wasteland, a concentra- planned, calculated and booked air- tion camp whose leaders will soon plane tickets six months in advance. find themselves at the Hague court They would spend their vacations in Not a single is not pragmatic. They will rather places from which they could fly “capitalist” pay their taxes to Ukraine. They back whenever necessary. Turkey, will also donate to charity in the Bulgaria, Crimea, Sloviansk, Berdy- has joined city and the army around it. Qui- ansk. Nothing too exotic or extrava- the DNR puppets etly and consistently. gant. They dictated the pace of the city. Their workday started at 8 a.m. out, and headed to the Maidan im- Life goes on for years, or at 9 a.m. at the latest. mediately. Dull, boring, pragmatic Sometimes one of them joins us, They would evaluate other cities by and greedy, they lost the business volunteers. He scrutinizes the how hard-working those were. of their life and went out to fight boxes, checks the equipment ac- “They wake up too late there, and for it. Some still do. As volunteers cording to the list. He calculates sleep too long here. The Germans on the frontline. They bought all something in his mind and smiles and Chinese are the right people,” the necessary equipment and happily. “Money must be re- they would say. weapons for their own money. spected”. Arrogant? No, pragmatic. Some took it to the streets in He gets out of his car at the That’s why Saturdays were family March and April in Eastern checkpoint of the Ukrainian army, days but not days off. They worked Ukraine, to rally in support of greets the soldiers and says qui- until 3 p.m., then went home. On Ukraine’s unity. Small and me- etly: “Guys, don’t leave us. Don’t Sundays, they would drop by, dium businesses were the first to leave us, I beg you.” check the production, control a support the army. Anonymously, “Of course, we won’t, grandpa!” plant or a restaurant, and go on quietly, and systemically. Grandpa is not even fifty yet. with the day. When their city was occupied, Time stops in an occupied Their children are their top many survived tortures in the zone, but people age rapidly. He treasure. Therefore, they send basements of the modern-day smiles and swallows a tear. The them to the best theaters, ballet equivalent of NKVD. Some are soldiers see it. “Don’t go back classes and opera schools, take still are in captivity. Their one- there, will you? To hell with it. them to premiers and exhibitions, time employees who had been What if someone reports on you? pay for their football classes and cherishing dreams of revenge for They will torture you to death,” educate them in schools in Ukrai- years broke into their houses and they tell him. nian. English is a must. German, robbed them, humiliating their ex- “No way! I can’t leave it all. I Chinese and Spanish – a bonus. bosses whom they could now still have things to do there. Gotta Plus, regular sports for the child make spit blood and beg for knock the Lenin down!” and himself. A sound mind in a mercy, and get a ransom. They embrace him as if it is for sound body. They need strength, They left their city after the the last time and can’t hold back plenty of it. tortures in the basements. They tears. The tears don’t pour down When their children grow up, left to forget and never return to the face, just swell in the eyes. Em- they integrate them into work as the city they used to love, that barrassed, he turns away. couriers, copy typists, lab assis- eventually betrayed them. “See, you can feel pain al- tants, buyers of fertilizers, dish- Some left before the occupiers ready,” I say. washers and accountants. This could take them to the torture base- “Do you think I’ll be able to starts on summer and winter ments. They have the capital and feel joy again, too?” breaks, then after university skills, so they can start it all from a I think he will. He will be able classes. They believe that the chil- blank page. Their children are their to feel everything again. 26|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Economy|Crimea The Shattered Showcase of the Russian World Crimea’s real economy will shrink further if the Russian occupation continues. Those employed in it will lose income and jobs

efore Russia occupied Cri­ Author: 2013. The decline was largely caused well. It has lost the Ukrainian mar- mea, the peninsula had a ro- Oleksandr by the new barriers in the shipment ket while finding a niche in the Rus- bust industry and transport Kramar of Crimean wines and spirits to the sian one that always had plenty of Bsector that often outpaced continental Ukraine, its biggest mar- fish and seafood will be difficult. similar sectors in Ukraine. The ket. From March to October 2014, Crimean fish producers are strug- tourists it welcomed, provided ser- Crimea produced 10.8mn l of spirits, gling to enter it but they are facing vices to, fed, and entertained every 6.4mn l of cognac and 20.2mn l of serious barriers. The result is a 90% year outnumbered the local popula- wine compared to 38.4mn l, 6.4mn l decline in fish catches and sale. Ser- tion at least threefold. New tourist and 20.2mn l in the same months of gey Aksyonov, Crimea’s self-pro- objects, many of them from small 2013, respectively. Wine makers still claimed premier, has recently ad- business owners and individual en- hope to see some improvement in mitted that the industry is in a criti- trepreneurs, were mushrooming. the access to the Ukrainian market cal condition. Huge infrastructure projects aimed in the future. Otherwise, they will In Q3’14 Crimea’s chemical in- at shipping goods from deep-sea have to cut back on production. dustry began to decline. Before the Crimean ports both to the continen- Crimean producers of wines and occupation, it accounted for 25% of tal Ukraine and other countries spirits are currently looking for ways total output of Crimea’s processing were on the way. This stands in a to get back on the Ukrainian market industry, and nearly 40% of its ex- stark contrast to what is happening by bottling their product in the conti- ports. Its output in June, July and in Crimea after the occupation. nental Ukraine. Still, their sales are October 2014 went down to 93.5%, declining and prospects look dim. 78.8% and 74.2% of the output gen- The lost market The Russian market will hardly offer erated in the same months of 2013. Food and beverage production used them a decent alternative since some So far, it has stayed afloat thanks to to be Crimea’s major processing in- Crimean producers have already the lobbied Tax and Customs Con- dustry, and it has been plummeting taken their niche while others, trol in the Crimean Free Trade Area since summer. It generated 40% of mostly the makers of sweetened law passed by the previous parlia- the peninsula’s total output before wines, do not fit Russian qualifica- ment of Ukraine (it came into effect the occupation. In June-October tion standards for wine. on September 27). The law qualifies 2014, its output shrank to 64.3-69% Crimean fishing industry has Crimean chemical products from of the level of the same months in found itself in a critical situation as plants owned by tycoon Dmytro The impa of Russian occupation on Crimean indu ry and transport Monthly output in Crimea in 2014 as % of output in the same month of 2013 Jan-Feb March April May June July Augu September Oober 10

0

-10 +9.3 -14.4 +3.5 +1. 1 -34.4 -13. 6 -32.1 -76.8 -17.5 -21.6 -69.3 -36.1 -15.7 -78.9 -66.2 -24. 3 -66.6 -59.0 -20.5 -66.0 -46.9 -11.8 -63. 3 -35.3 -20.5 -65.0 -37.2

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70 Source: Crimean Stati ics -80 Before the annexation After the annexation Indu rial output Cargo turnover Passenger traffic 150 Produ ion in 2014 compared to the same period in 2013 by induries, year-to-date,№ 16 (82) % December 2014|the ukrainian week|27

140 Food and beverage Metallurgy Processing indury, total 130 Rubber goods, plaics and other non-metal items Machine building Textile indury 120 Chemiry Wood processing and paper

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

Source: Crimean Stati ics 40 January February March April May June July Augu September Oober The impa of Russian occupation on Crimean indu ry and transport Monthly output in Crimea in 2014 as % of output in the same month of 2013 Jan-Feb March April May June July Augu September Oober 10

0

-10 +9.3 -14.4 +3.5 +1. 1 -34.4 -13. 6 -32.1 -76.8 -17.5 -21.6 -69.3 -36.1 -15.7 -78.9 -66.2 -24. 3 -66.6 -59.0 -20.5 -66.0 -46.9 -11.8 -63. 3 -35.3 -20.5 -65.0 -37.2

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70 Source: Crimean Stati ics -80 crimea|Economy Before the annexation After the annexation Indu rial output Cargo turnover Passenger traffic 150 Firtash as “Ukrainian products” and Produ ion in 2014 compared to the same period in 2013 by induries, year-to-date, % sets forth preferential customs re- gime for them. This makes the fu- ture of Crimea’s chemistry com- 140 Food and beverage pletely dependent on how soon the Metallurgy new parliament decides to amend Processing indury, total the law. 130 Rubber goods, plaics and other International sanctions have non-metal items caused a steep decline in the ship- Machine building Textile indury ments of Crimean products to most 120 Chemiry of their consumers. According to the Wood processing and paper records of the Crimean customs, Crimea exported goods worth USD 110 90.67mn in Q2-3’14, which is 3.3 times below its exports over the same period of 2013 (USD 301.9mn; 100 exports to Russia are not accounted for). The structure of exports has changed, too. In April-September 90 2013, chemicals accounted for 38.1% or USD 161mn. In 2014, their share dropped in price value to 10.3% or USD 9.3mn, giving way to 80 grain at 27.2%, mineral fuels and pe- troleum products at 29.6%, ship- building products at 20.3% and fer- 70 rous metallurgy at 9.1%. Surprisingly, the major markets for Crimea were Switzerland (29%) 60 and Panama (20.4%) in April-Sep- tember 2014. This signals attempts to use their customs regimes to re- 50 export goods to the EU and the USA that have imposed sanctions on Source: Crimean Stati ics Crimean companies. Still, these ef- 40 forts will hardly compensate for the January February March April May June July Augu September Oober huge losses Crimea has suffered from the closure of the European ban on foreign ships to enter com- and the prospect of their ships being and American markets where it ex- mercial seaports of Yalta, Kerch, arrested at Ukraine’s demand. ported USD 79.5mn worth of goods Sevastopol, Feodosia and Yevpato- Crimea’s transport problem in Q2-3’13. This almost equals ria as of July 16. Ukraine has also could in theory be solved by building Crimea’s total exports in Q2-3’14 notified the International Marine a bridge across the Kerch Strait. (USD 90.7mn). Another new big im- Organization of the closure of all However, costly and limited in traf- porter of Crimean goods is Saudi Crimean seaports for international fic load capacity, it will fail to replace Arabia – it is buying grain. ships and cruisers. They have major transport routes running transshipped 13.8mn t of cargo from Crimea to Ukraine. Even if it is Turning from a peninsula over the past year but Ukraine has built eventually, it will make no into an island According to not felt any effect of the ban. Over sense to deliver goods from Russia the records of Crimea that is part of Russia turns the Crimean January-October 2014, 83.3mn t of to Crimea in order to load them in into an island, and this has many customs, Crimea cargo passed through the ports un- Crimean ports for further shipment. negative consequences. It is virtu- exported goods der Ukraine’s control, up from The neighbouring Krasnodar sea- worth ally impossible to deliver anything, 77.5mn t in the same period of ports on the Russian Black Sea coast including basic consumer goods, to USD 2013. This means that Ukraine has will be a better option, especially Crimea in winter through any 90.67mn hardly noticed the loss of its when transit through Crimea could routes that bypass continental in Q2-3’14, which Crimean seaports, while the work- result in sanctions and fines. It is Ukraine. Russia admitted that by is 3.3 times below load of Odesa and Mykolayiv equally unlikely that the Russian au- banning the imports of a number its exports over oblasts has increased. thorities will solve Crimea’s electric- the same period ity and water supply problems. of Ukrainian goods to Crimea in of 2013 (USD Meanwhile, the seaports in summer and lifting the ban in win- 301.9mn; exports Crimea have virtually stopped. The Ukraine supplied 5.96bn kWh of ter. Equally difficult is the delivery to Russia are not biggest one in Sevastopol trans- electricity to the peninsula in 2013. of Crimean goods and commodi- accounted for) shipped 0.2mn t of cargo in Q2’14, Another 1 kWh was produced in ties in large amounts to Russia. down from 1.78mn t in Q1’14. Crimea itself. The peninsula would The threefold fall of cargo deliver- Crimean experts believe that all they now need USD 450-500mn to im- ies through the Crimean territory can expect in the near future is ac- port the current amount of Ukrai- and the decline of the local sea- cepting imported goods for Crimea nian electricity at international mar- ports confirm that. The Ukrainian from Russia or other countries that ket prices. Ukraine also delivered government introduced an official shrug off international sanctions nearly 1.2mn cu m of fresh water to 28|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Economy|Crimea

Where Crimeans earned their Other Professional, research this situation, Crimea has no chance income before annexation 9.0 and technical aivities to revive the 2013 tourist flow of Employment by indu ries, 9.0 tourists and in the mid-term. ‘000 people, 2013 Prospects Wholesale and retail trade, Health care and social assi ance Vladimir Putin has recently signed a car and vehicle repair 9.0 law on the development of the 246.2 Education Crimean Federal District and FTA in Public the Crimean Republic and Sevasto- Farming, fore ry 20.4 admini ration, In April-September and fishing defence, 2013, chemicals pol for the next 25 years. The special dominated in FTA regime provides for preferential 183.7 mandatory Crimea’s exports, Indu ry social insurance accounting for taxation for companies operating in 20.4 38.1% or USD 161mn. tourism, farming, processing indus- 81.8 In 2014, their share dropped try, seaports and transport infra- Con ruion Information Admini rative structure, and in IT. However, these 34.0 and telecoms and intermediation 17 decisions will have no serious im- services times in price value 9.0 to 10.3% or USD pact if international sanctions Temporary 20.4 9.3mn against Crimea stay in place. The housing Financial and insurance new Ukrainian Parliament will most Transport,warehouses, and feeding Real e ate services likely cancel the preferential exports po al and courier services of touri s transaions 9.8 law mentioned above (on the cre- 48.9 24.3 12.8 Sources: Crimean Stati ics ation of the free trade area on the peninsula), thereby cutting ways for Crimea in 2013. Imported even at this was the path most Crimeans the Crimean companies to sell their USD 1 per 1 cu m, it will now cost saw as a priority one in their devel- products to Ukraine or re-export Crimea an additional USD 1.2bn a opment before the annexation. The them to the third countries through year (desalinization of seawater will Russian occupation crushed the the Ukrainian territory. be equally expensive). peninsula’s tourist potential. If that happens, the Crimeans All this puts an unbearable bur- According to Oleksandr Liyev, and Russians will realize that the den on Crimea’s economy which it ex-Minister of Tourism in Crimea, peninsula cannot develop success- can hardly endure, especially as almost 4 million Ukrainians, 1.3 mil- fully without Ukraine. They will also markets for its products shrink rap- lion Russians, 250,000 Belarusians realize that the Soviet government idly. This cost of electricity and wa- and 500,000 tourists from the EU, decided to transfer it to Ukraine in ter makes it unfeasible to use it for Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and 1954 for objective economic and in- many industrial and farming pur- other countries visited Crimea in frastructural reasons, not because poses. As a result, production will 2013. The biggest growth of the shrink or stop. If Ukraine stopped tourist flow was from the EU and providing fresh water through the Turkey. In the latest holiday season, It will become obvious North Crimean Canal, it would only 370,000 Ukrainians visited that Crimea cannot develop cause shortages for the population, Crimea. Most of them were IDPs let alone industry. In November, for from the Donbas who stayed at the properly without Ukraine instance, Sevastopol began to pro- vacant local resorts for free. A mere vide water at specific hours only. 1.15 million of Russian tourists came Nikita Khrushchev liked Ukraine This could get worse in 2015. over nine months, which is fewer that much (see p. 38). Current talks of potential con- than last year. This has aggravated Cut off from Ukraine, Crimea struction of alternative energy internal polarization in Crimea: will need constant huge funding sources in Crimea are similarly un- whereas Sevastopol and the Great from the Russian federal budget, justified. First, the peninsula will Yalta saw some new visitors, Yevpa- even if it turns into a big military hardly get enough funding to imple- toria, Feodosia, Great Alushta and base (see p. 30). Meanwhile, Rus- The seaports ment development programmes ap- Sudak hardly had any clients al- in Crimea have sia’s spending capacity is limited, proved earlier. Second, the genera- though they used to be popular des- virtually stopped. and so is its motivation to spend a The biggest one tion of current at Crimean plants tinations and most locals were em- in Sevastopol lot of money on what it already has dropped as a result of limited ployed in tourism there. transshipped grabbed. supply of electricity from the conti- The growing cost of life and va- Hopes of Crimea’s transforma- nental Ukraine from 714mn kWh in cations in Crimea, and the lack of 0.2mn t tion into a showcase of success of of cargo in Q2’14, March-October 2013 to 498mn kWt convenient transportation routes down from the Russian World look bare: it will in the same period of 2014. Solar from Russia to Crimea make it a now get only RUR 100bn out of and wind power generation has worse option compared to the Black 1.78mn t 373bn ascribed to it by the target shrank significantly: unlike Ukraine, Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai around in Q1’14 programme to develop Crimea in the fuel-rich Russia is not prepared Sochi. The Russians are essentially 2015. The rest of the sum may come to subsidize green energy produc- forced to pass that one to get to in the next years or not come at all. tion facilities. Crimea through the Kerch Strait. Before the annexation, this Belarusians find it easier to go to the amounted to USD 11bn. Now, Tourism Sea of Azov or to the rest of the Black Crimea will get less than USD 2bn, Many countries in the world do not Sea coast in Ukraine, while Ukrai- and even that could plunge as the produce or export anything but live nian or European tourists will not go ruble devaluates and the fiscal crisis well on tourism. According to polls, to Crimea for obvious reasons. In in Russia gets worse. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|29 Crimea|Projections for 2015 The Unfree Peninsula tion in 2015 will oust many Crimean men, especially young Crimean Tatars, who are reluc- tant to serve in the Russian army. In addition to that, preferen- tial enrolment of young Crimeans to Russian universities might ex- pand, while local teachers, uni- versity professors and other pro- fessionals might be transferred to work in Russia following the ser- vicemen, police officers or civil servants who switched allegiance from Ukraine to Russia after the annexation. The “Crimean Fed- eral District” will instead be re- filled with Russian officials and employees. Kadyrov regime as a model It appears that for the transition period, the Kremlin has decided to keep the old Crimean estab- lishment to rule Crimea, albeit with the addition, and under the reliable control of the Russian “new Crimeans”. It is very likely that only minor officials will go to Author: or the Kremlin, the annexed lin can use to gradually change work in the annexed peninsula, Borys Crimea currently appears to the structure of the Crimean pop- while serious players will be cau- Chatyrdah be, first and foremost, a for- ulation. The “large military base”, tious of international sanctions. Ftress-peninsula which is to which the annexed region is rap- The Crimean establishment is be a base for subversive-recon- idly transforming into, needs largely ineffective, but reliable for naissance activity, a constant loyal and relatively well-to-do Moscow. Many of its representa- threat to Ukraine’s underbelly, a residents. Crimea is extremely tives have burned their bridges base for expansion into Ukraine dependent on mainland Ukraine with Kyiv through separatism and and under favourable conditions for its water, foodstuffs and elec- subversive activities in Eastern — to the Caucasus and the Bal- tricity supplies. Importing all this Ukraine. kans. Crimea has an extremely at international market prices is a In 2014, they established ac- important geostrategic position. huge expense for the Kremlin. So tive contacts with the Chechen Re- The Kremlin will try to secure it is simply too costly for the public through bilateral visits and Crimea for itself, so in 2015, it will Kremlin to support the existing cultural exchanges. 4,000 young continue to intensify the militari- population there. It has already Chechen conscripts will be the sation of this Ukrainian region. been announced that 17,000 first since the 1990s to serve in We can expect the creation of a apartments are to be built for the Crimea. Apparently, the Kremlin powerful separate armed group on Russian military in Crimea over sees a special role of the predomi- its territory as announced by Pres- the next few years. According to nantly Muslim Chechnya in the ident Putin, and in the worst-case Ukrainian statistics, the average annexation of the peninsula, the scenario – the use of these armies Crimean family has 2.6 persons. takeover of its shadow economy, in a full-scale war against Ukraine. Multiplied by 17,000, this makes and neutralization of the Crimean At which, nuclear missile carriers 44,200 family members of the Tatars. Sergey Aksyo­nov, the “Pre- are already present in Crimea. military, many of them coming mier of the Crimean Republic”, This could be a means if intimida- from Russia. It is also safe to as- seems very interested in the power tion and blackmail. In all likeli- sume that many military who maintenance experience of hood, Crimean military plants will used to serve in the Ukrainian Chechen President Ramzan Kady- be kept very busy, yet ungainly Army and have stayed in Crimea rov. For many years, the Chechen laws and red tape can cause a de- will not get these apartments. Ac- leader has demonstrated absolute lay in this. cordingly, the number of military loyalty to Vladimir Putin. In re- The militarisation of Crimea colonialists will be higher. On the turn, Chechnya regularly receives is an excuse and a tool the Krem- other hand, mandatory conscrip- significant federal subsidies. Apart 30|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Projections for 2015|Crimea from that, Kadyrov has security city councils elected them mation war, which Russia has un- forces that are independent of the through secret ballot in Septem- folded against Ukraine. Russian federal ones and often act ber. The consequence of the pow- beyond the Russian borders. The The rights of ethnic groups, erful brainwashing will be that Crimean authorities could use the such as the Crimean Tatars and the many difficulties of the Rus- “Crimean self-defence” formed as ethnic Ukrainians are under par- sian reality will be viewed as the a paramilitary separatist group in ticular threat. The well-organized lesser evil compared to the war, early 2014 to that end. Human Crimean-Tatar movement, with “fascists” and the like. Vital infra- rights activists accuse it of system- its 50 years of self-organisation structure projects, such as the atic violation of human rights and experience, does not fit into the construction of a bridge across suspect it of committing serious realm of authoritarian Russia. the Kerch Strait, the Sevastopol- crimes – kidnapping and murder. National self-governing bodies, Kerch highway and others, also Since June, the Crimean leader- the Crimean-Tartar Mejlis and offer room for manipulation. In- ship has been trying to legalize the Kurultai, did not recognise the fluenced by propaganda, the “Crimean self-defence” in the Rus- annexation of Crimea. So Russia post-Soviet mindset will be pre- sian legal domain. It is safe to as- will strive in 2015 to create a pro- pared to endure temporary hard- sume that the Crimean establish- Russian majority in the Mejlis ships while believing that the ment will use it, in whatever sta- and Kurultai by means of bribery, bridge will be built eventually, tus, to subdue discontented blackmail and repression. At the and the happy life will begin. Crimeans and redistribute prop- same time, it will create Crimean- Some experts claim that a Kerch- erty in 2015. Tatar organisations that are loyal Overall, in 2015, the Crimean to Russia, such as the K’rym Life will be equally leadership will most likely benefit movement. Moscow has already from embezzling a fair share of virtually succeeded in winning difficult for Crimean federal bailouts to Crimea, the the cooperation of the Spiritual Tatars and ethnic creation of a free trade zone, and Directorate of Crimean Muslims illegal income from gambling, to which most Crimean Muslims Ukrainians struggling should a gaming zone be opened belong. A slew of measures were to preserve their language in Crimea. Some could pocket taken to achieve this, including profits from drug trafficking from the establishment of a parallel and culture in Crimea Afghanistan and the North Cau- Crimean muftiate. casus to Europe. Life will be equally difficult Kuban bridge or tunnel, vital to for ethnic Ukrainians struggling the connection of Crimea to Corralling everyone into to preserve their language and mainland other than Ukrainian, happiness culture in Crimea. The occupa- will not be built because of the ex- Russian human rights activists tion authorities continue to liqui- pense and the geological com- say that the Crimeans will experi- date the remains of the already plexity of the seabed. ence a “decompression” in the small cultural infrastructure of Carrots, such as nigher social human rights sphere by facing Ukrainians. In the 2015-2016 benefits, guaranteed domination the pressure the Russians have school year, Crimea will most of ethnic Russians and propa- grown accustomed to in 15 years likely end up with no Ukrainian- ganda alone will not help Russia in a very short time. Indeed, the language schools and hardly any keep Crimean society under con- population of Crimea has gone lessons of the Ukrainian lan- trol. It will also need the stick — Possible from a relatively free Ukraine to guage. Crimean branches of the in 2015... repressions and people reporting the consolidated authoritarian- Ukrainian Orthodox Church of on each other. As Russia’s eco- – The mass exodus of ism of Russia. The rights to free Kyiv Patriarchate, Ukrainian young Crimean men nomic problems and political iso- speech, assembly, thought, per- Greek Catholic Church, where who do not want to lation aggravate in 2015, the sticks sonal immunity and even life will most parishioners are ethnic serve in the Russain will be used more extensively. army unfortunately be violated system- Ukrainians, will face increasing Ukraine, as the legal ruler of atically in the annexed peninsula pressure. Other characteristically – The creation of a Crimean sovereignty, in spite of pro-Russian opposi- in 2015. Ukrainian things will also be de- tion in the Mejlis and virtually no chance of returning Few of over 3,000 mass me- stroyed, while Ukrainian activists Kurultai the peninsula in the short-term, dia registered in the Autonomous will move to the mainland, weary – A shutdown of should develop and start imple- Republic of Crimea at the begin- of moral and psychological pres- many regional mass menting a strategy for re-integra- ning of 2014, will be registered sure and repression. The rights of media tion of the temporarily occupied anew under the Russian jurisdic- other ethnic minorities are also territory in 2015. It should make tion in the coming year. The pres- under threat. the burden of illegal occupation sure of the Russian authorities Ethnic and religious tensions of foreign land ever more cum- and pro-Russian groups will in- and provocations could spark bersome for Russia. Next year, tensify on the remaining media spontaneous conflicts. However, Ukraine can start selling both wa- and journalists. The NGO sphere numerous cases of human rights ter and electricity to Crimea at in- will also be weeded out. The space violations in Crimea and other ternational market prices, pro- of freedom and the possibility of problems resulting from the an- vided that the rights of Ukrainian self-organisation will narrow sig- nexation will probably fail to en- citizens there are observed. nificantly. In 2014, the Crimeans courage insight in most Crimeans Should they be violated, Ukraine were already deprived of the right in 2015. They remain under the can block the supply of vital prod- to elect their mayors – Crimean influence of the large-scale infor- ucts to the peninsula. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|31 Crimea|Mentality The Nerve of Annexation

Author: ome experts feel that the have shaped Crimea’s exotic di- Iryna war in the Donbas was versity - ethnic, linguistic, reli- Brunova- started to distract atten- gious, civic and identity-related. Kalisetska Stion from the annexation of In the early 1990s, this harbour Crimea and force its recognition. of the relic homo sovieticus that If this is the case, the goal has al- pretended to not divide people by most been achieved. Indeed, nationality encountered an alien when the military and civilians ethnic paradigm of Crimean Ta- are dying, who can be bothered tars, one that stood strongly be- with Crimea where everything hind its interests of an indige- seems to be relatively quiet? nous people that had survived However, that quietness is decep- the trauma of deportation. In the tive. double-standard morale of the In March 2014, the whole of homo sovieticus, ethnicity that Ukraine and Europe followed was different from their own - events in Crimea with bated that of majority - was unintelligi- breath. Quite a few people did ble, monstrous and unacceptable. not believe that autonomous re- Seeing in it anything but the public would switch so easily to a value of diversity, the majority different country. Few had preferred it secreted away or as- doubted until that moment that similated. There has been hardly Crimea was more pro-Russian room for diversity in a place than the rest of Ukraine. But where “people are not divided by fewer even supposed that it was nationality” simply out of fear to pro-Russian enough to become face something different. The part of Russia. has been seen tions with fears of “Crimean Tatar Is it true that most Crimeans here as a given even if it’s not a separatism” and “creeping Ukrai- wanted their peninsula to be part native language of the interlocu- nianisation” come in handy. of the neighbouring country tor. To make things simpler still, Some of those fears have dis- throughout all years of Ukraine’s anyone who is not Crimean Tatar appeared over time, as commu- independence? Were these senti- has been automatically referred nication, mutual interest and ments concealed until they sur- to as “Russian” or “Slav”. The experience of peaceful co-exis- faced a few years ago? Or did this purpose of Greeks, Armenians, tence intensified. Numerous ed- happen during the Maidan pe- Germans, Karaites, Bulgarians ucation and cultural pro- riod? Were these sentiments al- and many others in Crimea has grammes, directed towards ready simmering in February – been nothing more than an ele- overcoming xenophobia and the March 2014? The results of the ment of cultural contrast and development of mutual under- so-called referendum are not so tourist attraction. They have standing between cultural com- important – everyone knows how been allowed their songs, dances, munities helped. But there has it was conducted, and how such cuisine and folk crafts because been little of such dynamics and things are generally conducted that is comprehensible and communication with mainland by the Russian scenario. The canny, while mosques were bet- Ukraine. The Crimeans used to question lies elsewhere: what led ter in remote parts of the town, vote for politicians who ap- to the current outcome? and azans – calls to prayer – peared to be their “homeboys” were not supposed to overpower as opposed to “strangers”, re- The pre-annexation Christian church bells. gardless of their political orien- Crimea Anything that was different tation, platforms, promises, ac- The tangled history of different from the overall canvas of the tivities and performance. They rulers in Crimea, voluntary and dominating Russian culture was watched Russian TV, but were forced migration, position of an long perceived as a threat, a factor unaware of the reality in modern island, yet paradoxical mental that forced people to change. Hu- Russia: neither its political and distance from the sea and the op- mans do not like to change. And social life, nor the economic sit- portunities sea trade presents that is where political manipula- uation of regular citizens outside 32|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Mentality|Crimea Everyone was used to speak- ing Russian. Another language was perceived as expansion, not as diversity and the norm. Our 2010 research found that repre- sentatives of each of the three largest language groups (Rus- sian, Ukrainian, and Crimean- Tatar) saw a threat to their own language, but not to the other two. This did not always match their responses about where they could use their native language in public life, such as in ATMs, mass media or education, health care and services. Orchestrated fears thus made a much bigger impact on the behaviour of peo- ple, than analysis of objective re- ality. This explains why the call to “defend the Russian language”, no matter how absurd, worked. As a result, Crimea ended up with a social and psychological environment where the ethnicity – nationality – nation discourse, as well as historical or linguistic markers related to these notions, were either omitted or articu- lated in narrow debates strictly divided into Ukrainians who talked about ethnic nationalism, Russians with their post-impe- rial sufferings, and Crimean Ta- tars with the consequences of de- portation and the restoration of rights and justice. Experts in- volved in the Russian discourse rarely intersected with the other Moscow and St. Petersburg, nor efficient medical aid, good roads, two in person. The rest of over of problems in the Caucasus or polite clerks, safety on the roads, 120 ethnic groups in Crimea were with migrant workers, nor the and the like. The difference be- hardly heard or represented in tax, pension, health care, educa- tween the Crimeans and main- public domain. This made perfect tion, law enforcement and other land Ukrainians was in their un- ground for bitter feelings among systems, all of which affect ev- derstanding of where all this all ethno-cultural groups. eryday life. After all, it is one comes from. When looked at from Kyiv, thing to imagine Alaska, based The Crimeans hardly under- Ukraine has several important on the books of Jack London, but stood or knew Ukraine. They trav- epicentres, including Lviv, living in modern Anchorage or elled to Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Crimea in addition Unalaska is a profoundly differ- Kyiv and Lviv, but when asked to the capital itself. The debate ent experience. The Crimeans between Lviv and Donetsk hoped that, once joined with mostly focused on who allows Russia, they would have pen- Many had to think Ukraine to exist as a state and sions and wages like in Moscow, for the first time about what it would be like in the fu- and the climate and comfort like ture. By contrast, Crimea never in Crimea. At least the latter has which country they would asked that question. Instead, it not changed. like to live in, and reacted lived a separate life with a con- Therefore, it would be wrong stant juvenile complaint that to say that most Crimeans emotionally to a situation “Kyiv doesn’t understand us”. wanted to become part of Russia. of uncertainty and alarm Most of its pro-Russian residents They rather believed in the myth did not so much want to be part of some golden place and time, “Where are you going?” they of Russia (they would have en- and felt nostalgia for something would respond: “To Ukraine”. The rolled into Russia’s State Pro- unfeasible which, paradoxically, question “Where are you now?” gramme for Promoting Voluntary comes from the same needs that would drive them into a blind Resettlement into the Russian the mainland Ukrainians de- alley. We’re in Crimea, they Federation of Compatriots Living clared, such as decent salaries, would say. Abroad, which came into effect in № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|33 Crimea|Mentality 2006, if they did), as they wanted About the author member the details of the 1992 Ukraine to preserve Russia in Iryna Brunova-Kalisetska holds a PhD in Psychology and Constitution. Passed on May 6, Crimea with the dominant status is research fellow at the Laboratory of Socio-Psychological 1992, it declared that relations of Russians and the Russian lan- Technologies of the Institute of Social and Political Psy- between Ukraine and Crimea guage. Everything that Ukraine chology. Until March 2014, she taught ethno-psychology, would be based on treaties and (or Crimeans themselves) did for conflict psychology, the psychology of mass communica- agreements, and introduced tions and social psychology at the Tavryda National Uni- the development of the other two versity (Simferopol). She is a member of the international Crimean citizenship. These pro- large ethno-cultural groups and peace education working group of the Global Partnership visions could essentially be used languages in Crimea was seen as for the Prevention of Armed Conflict. Since 2004, Ms. for Crimea’s separation from the violation and the threat to Brunova-Kalisetska has been involved in developing and Ukraine. Crimean parliament that status quo. This offered con- implementing education programmes on political cul- amended them in September venient ways of manipulating the ture and peacebuilding education in Crimea, Georgia, 1992, six months after it had sentiments and fears of some Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Transnistria, Udmurtia, and passed them. Crimean Russians, while allow- Montenegro. The “referendum” ballot did ing certain political groups to not offer an option of Crimea’s implement their interests. The in February-March was probably independence or for the preser- latter caught their fish in muddy that of confusion and anxiety. vation of its then effective status water in November 2013 – De- In the month before the “refer- and Constitution. And Crimeans cember 2014, which they had endum” we saw in Crimea the wanted a quick, simple and com- been unable to do in the rela- growing likelihood of an ethnic prehensible answer to one ques- tively calm period prior to this. conflict, an increase of violence tion: “How will we live now?”. with political overtones, “little It is hard to say how the Crimeans in November green men” whose presence was Crimeans would have voted if 2013 – March 2014 hard to believe in at first, and the these options had been on the Average Crimeans (most of them sudden announcement of the “ref- ballots and the little green men found life hard enough under any erendum” which was another un- had never been there; if they had government in terms of economy, imaginable thing. At the same not arranged provocations that but differently as far as identity time, the government in Kyiv gov- could potentially lead to ethnic was concerned) found the ernment was virtually absent, and clashes in the late February; or if Maidan incomprehensible. They no one knew who would come to the votes had actually been tend to think that “you can’t power next. Plus, we hardly saw a counted rather than adjusted to change the system, don’t even possibility to change the situation. the figure instructed from above. try; only fools do, or those who In such environment emotions With all these “what ifs” it no are paid for it”. While many come to dominate over reasoning, longer matters how many people Maidan protesters saw it as a and the ability to think critically actually came to the polling sta- place where civil society (a di- plummets. Caught in this emo- tions and voted in the “referen- verse one) was shaped, the tional turmoil, the Crimeans are dum”. Crimeans thought of it as a threat offered to answer a few quick ques- So what happened to the ma- to the Russian culture and lan- tions in the “referendum”: jority of Crimeans? The likely an- guage of their region. It is hard to 1. Do you support the reunifi- swer is that many had to think for tell which of their fears domi- cation of Crimea with Russia as the first time about which country nated, whether it was fear of the subject of the Russian Feder- they would like to live in, and even change, responsibility for it, of ation? more did not so much think, as re- answering the question “Who am 2. Do you support the rein- act emotionally to a situation of I?”, of potential violence, or any statement of the 1992 Crimean uncertainty and alarm, choosing other fear. Crimea has feared con- Constitution and the status of the option that was proposed to flict over the last 23 years, so it Crimea as part of Ukraine? them through manipulation as was now willing to do anything to The questions were designed the positive and best resolution of avoid one. The dominant feeling this way for a purpose. Few re- this situation. Afterword on treason hereby do not judge anyone, let alone de- betrayed our peninsula, or have we returned possible at maximum alienation from politi- I cide who betrayed whom. I would rather to our country? Have we, the Ukrainian Rus- cal processes? We, who never asked our- like to understand what happened, and why sians, betrayed other Russians who never selves the uncomfortable question – who it happened. Treason is a moral category felt like they were part of Ukraine? We, who are we with? that stands for the failure of a person or a lived with nostalgia and dreams of the Great Our actions are mostly caused by emo- group of people to meet the expectations of Country and can hardly come to terms with tions and feelings. One is the sense of being another individual or group. We refer to the fact that it no longer exists? We, who for part of a group, of fair or unfair history, of people whose behaviour does not match various reasons, remain in the occupied ter- pride or humiliation of this particular group. I our expectations as a traitor. It is hard to say ritory but do not recognize annexation yet once again stress out, that the above piece is who was a traitor in the Crimean crisis, ex- are forced to stay in this painful reality? We, not about the accuracy of historical facts. It is cept for those who switched allegiance – who lived our everyday life with families and about feelings and emotions. Who can judge, that is a legal dimension. We, who have left friends, and the necessity to survive under which of those are right, and which are Crimea for the continental Ukraine: have we any government, something that was only wrong? 34|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Ethnic diversity|Crimea The Multitude of Nations

Author: rus te m e minov a in t ing by Oleksa Hayvoronskiy

rimea has always been a place of exceptional ethnic

diversity. The Bulgarians, Ar- h, a p Th e t r a in of d eat Cmenians, Greeks, Jews, Kara- ites, Crimean Tatars, Krymchaks, However, if we look for the taking the region under its com- Ukrainians, Russians, Romani – general trends, we will find that plete control, in 1778-1779 (be- these are just the most prominent views divide the population onto tween occupying and annexing it) of the ethnic groups that populated two large communities. On one the Russian leadership enforced a the peninsula over the last century side of the fence is what is obvi- "voluntary-compulsory" migration and a half. In fact, the most recent ously the majority of Crimean Ta- of all local Christians from the pen- Ukrainian census (2001) revealed tars together with a reasonably insula to the steppes north of the that there are representatives of scarce (or, perhaps, very covert?) Azov Sea. All in all that's over 30 116 nationalities residing in group of "political Ukrainians". thousand Greeks and Armenians. Crimea, be it individuals or large On the opposite side of the divide The goal of this campaign has national diasporas. Such an ethnic we'll find… everyone else. The lat- historians scratching their heads diversity has always been charac- ter group includes Russians, to this day. It is made even more teristic of the peninsula, yet its Moscow-oriented ethnic Ukraini- mysterious by the fact that seizing composition changed over time. ans and the rest of Crimea's many Crimea was only a part of the nations. I'll reiterate that we're greater Russian plan of "restoring Crimean Tatars vs. dealing with general trends here, the Byzantine Empire". Remnants "everyone else" there always are exceptions to the of this bizarre fantasy live on in Many wonder these days how all rule. the current names of the Crimean these different ethnic groups view One would logically presume cities renamed during that period the events that recently unfolded in that the motley ethnic composition in a quasi-classical fashion (Sevas- Crimea. of the Crimean population would topol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Fe- The established train of result in a far wider spectrum of odosia), while the very real and thought is that the views on the thought, rather than a primitive di- living carriers of the Byzantine Crimean crisis are determined by vision onto the "Tatars" and "non- culture were forced to leave their the ethnicity: insofar as the ethnic Tatars". Then why does the major- native mountains and to migrate Russians approve of the annexa- ity of "everyone else" associate towards the steppes, dying in their tion of Crimea by Russia, while the themselves with the Russian inter- thousands along the way. Some Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars are ests? How come all this "ethnic have even resorted to apostasy in against it. The reality is more com- richness" of Crimea in the political order to pass for "Crimean Tatars" plicated. In fact the pro-Kremlin sense is reduced to the "Tatars" and not Greeks just to preserve camp and the Russian-imposed ad- and "everyone else"? their homes. ministration of Crimea is teaming The answer to this question is Having cleansed the peninsula with quintessentially Ukrainian rooted deep in history. from all Christians (the move that surnames. Also evident are great no previous ruler ever dared to em- efforts to adjust and find a place in- "Welcome guests" and bark on over the entire almost five- side the Russian Federation's gov- "unwelcome natives" century long Muslim dominance in ernment structures by some After conquering the Crimean Crimea), the colonial administra- Crimean Tatars. At the same time Khanate in 1783 Russia took over tion proceeded to dealing with the one can find all kind of nationali- what was essentially a mono-ethnic Crimean-Tatars. Those of them ties within the Crimea's camp of country almost entirely populated that didn't flee the peninsula dur- "political Ukrainians", the minority by Crimean Tatars. Such a mono- ing the Russian invasion and the of locals fighting for their rights in ethnic situation is very uncharac- concurrent civil war were being Crimea as the representatives of teristic of the Crimean peninsula, pushed out and deprived of land. the ethnically diverse Ukrainian and it was brought about in part By 1793 Crimea lost up to a half of political nation. owing to Russia's efforts. Before its former population. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|35 Crimea|Ethnic diversity At the dawn of the 19th century Czechs, Estonians… They were to of privileges that the rest of Rus- great many representatives of the turn Crimea into an income source sia's Jews could only dream of. Russia's elite came flooding into and a trading centre: essentially to Consistently showing great loyalty the region with great enthusiasm. do exactly what the natives were to the Russian government this The empress encouraged the "de- incapable of, as far as Saint Peters- ethnic group managed to preserve velopment" of the peninsula by burg was concerned. The Russian its traditional social niche being fi- giving away rather fetching lands government encouraged foreigners nanciers/creditors and prominent left and right. The justification for to settle in Crimea by granting vari- merchants. pushing out the Crimean Tatars ous privileges and, most impor- Similar tactic of unquestionable was that the latter were suppos- tantly, generously providing land loyalty was also employed by the edly incapable of developing their plots. And there was plenty of land representatives of the Crimean Ta- lands appropriately. A typical view up for grabs on the peninsula, tar nobility, or rather the part of it for the times was written by a given that simultaneously with the that managed to maintain such sta- judge Pavel Sumarokov (con- waves of new settlers arriving to tus by cooperating with the colonial jointly the author of one of the Crimea, the Crimean-Tatars were authorities. Russian manifestos re- best early Russian overviews of being pushed out. This phenome- garding the annexation of Crimea Crimea): 'The greatest good for non reached its peak after the envisaged guarantees of preserving Tavryda (the classical pre-Turco- Crimean war of 1853-1856 when all the "natural rights" of the em- Mongol name of the peninsula, the very presence of anti-Russian pire's new citizens, and it must be also Taurica or Tauris – Ed.) coalition forces on the peninsula said that in regards to the part of the would be if the Tatars left the lat- provided Saint Petersburg a suit- elite that obeyed those guarantees ter entirely… The delighted area in able (but false) premise to accuse were observed. Crimean Tatar no- the aforesaid form liberated from Crimean Tatars in mass collabora- bility smoothly merged into Rus- the Tatar Horde would then pres- tionism. Following this up to 150 sia's upper class (which did have a ent all manner of attractions to the thousand more Crimean Tatars long tradition of integrating various Armenians populating Anatolia were forced to migrate. As a result, indigenous elites), and found itself (Asian Turkey – Ed.) and the for the first time this ethnic group on the opposite end of the social di- Greeks scattered over the islands' became a minority in Crimea. vide that separated them from their The thought that the place of The most fitting term to de- compatriots. Crimean Tatars should be taken by scribe the relationships between the more "apt" and the more "in- BIO the new settlers and the natives Nativization, occupation Oleksa dustrious" peoples became gener- Hayvorovskyi would be "segregation". The new- and deportation ally accepted. Its practical imple- is a Ukrainian comers settling away from home It's not exactly breaking news to say mentation followed shortly. historian from ended up living in closed stand- that the transformative period of Having deported the Crimea's Crimea, writer alone communities. They never the 1917-1920 changed a great deal. Greeks and the Armenians, Russia and television managed to form a class of lati- The revolutionary flames claimed began to populate the peninsula presenter. His fundists: some remained wealthy the ruling classes of all ethnic with… the Greeks, but a different fields interest -in farmers (the Germans), others (the groups on the peninsula along with kind. The previous Greek popula- clude political Serbs and a certain percentage of the plans to call a Founding Assem- tion of Crimea was not so much a history of the Bulgarians) failed to adapt to the bly where delegates of all Crimea's Hellenic diaspora but rather a con- Crimean Khan- new place and chose to return to ate. He worked ethnic groups were to meet and de- glomerate of descendants of an- in the Khan's their homeland. Yet in spite of the termine the region's future to- cient Crimean peoples consoli- Bakhchysarai Pal- small disparity on the social ladder, gether… The subsequent events un- dated by Greek Orthodoxy: the ace for 16 years, the difference in the official posi- folded in a very similar way they did Tauris, Scythians, Goths, Alans, 10 of them as tion between the settlers and the in Ukraine: the "nativization" pro- Cumans etc. In this sense the deputy director Crimean Tatars was dramatic: the paganda stunt gave the Crimean "Crimean Greeks" were closely re- on research. He newcomers were the welcome Autonomous Soviet Socialist Re- lated to Crimean Tatars, a consid- wrote Rulers of guests, while the natives were be- public traits of a Crimean Tatar na- erable part of whom were the de- Two Continents, ing forced to migrate. tional autonomy. scendants of the very same ances- the best-selling Among the Crimean natives The Bolsheviks' belief that Crimean history that remembered the life under tors. To replace the peaceful monograph that Crimean Tatars were the most op- natives of Crimea, who were accus- presents a Khanate, two other ethnicities pressed by imperialist Russia eth- tomed to the Khanate's tolerance "Crimean-cen- should be mentioned: the nic minority on the peninsula was towards them, Russia invited the tric" view of the Krymchaks and Karaites. The first not unfounded. They were less en- Greeks from the Aegean Islands, Crimean Khan- being the descendants of Crimea's thusiastic in their attitude towards the "Arnauts". These, unlike their ate's history. medieval Jews were subject to the other nationalities, as the majority Crimean siblings were battle- From 2012 on- same kind of restrictions that the of the Greeks qualified as "small scarred in the uprisings against the wards he pres- Russian laws imposed upon Jews. bourgeoisie", while the Germans ottomans, and we used by the Rus- ents a television At the same time the Karaite clerics presented a classic example of "ku- sians as military settlers brought in program on his- insisted that their people descends laks". There was also a brave ex- toric landmarks to look after the "suspicious" Walking in from the Jews that had supposedly periment in "liberating" peoples Crimean Tatar population. Crimea with settled in Crimea Before Christ, from the "bourgeois shackles" in After brining in the Greeks, the Oleksa Hayvoro- and therefore are not responsible the form of organizing Jewish col- Russian Empire opened Crimea's vskyi aired on for the Savior's Crucifixion. lective farms in Crimea, further- doors for thousands of other new ATR, the first Whether the Tsar believed their more a whole agricultural region settlers: the Russians, Ukrainians, Crimean Tatar story or not is unknown, but the was reserved for the representa- Bulgarians, Serbs, Germans, TV-channel Karaites were granted a whole host tives of this ethnic group. However, 36|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Ethnic diversity|Crimea Crimean Nativization also ended in repatriate. However, their de- of nature in no way restricts the a way it did elsewhere: accusation mands went beyond the permis- rights and freedoms of citizens re- of the "National-Bolsheviks" in sion to return. Facing artificial ob- gardless of their ethnic descent. It "bourgeois nationalism" and the stacles regarding place of resi- does, however, demand certain subsequent shootings. dence, employment and so forth, changes to the political system, the After seizing Crimea the Hit- being treated like semi-legal mi- kind of changes that would no- ler's Germany initially acted much grants in their homeland Crimean doubt spell bad news for the like the Bolsheviks did when they Tatars demanded the status of Crimean "elite". took control of the peninsula: ap- Crimea's indigenous people One must admit that the latter peasing ethnic minorities, creating (which, it must be noted, was succeeded to a great extent. It faux self-government bodies etc. completely justified, given that managed to persuade the rest of The major difference was the mass this nation formed in Crimea and the ethnic groups that Crimean killings of Jews, which all but did not represent a diaspora of Tatars declaring their indigenous wiped out the population of any nation living outside of the status would threaten the rights of Krymchaks. The Nazi long-term peninsula). Such a demand envis- all other ethnicities. The division programme for Crimea envisaged aged state guarantees of restoring was helped by the fact that almost complete depopulation and the ar- the people's rights, its representa- all Crimea's ethnic and cultural rival of the Tyrol Germans. Unlike tion in local authorities as well as societies were dependant on gov- most occupied territories, Crimea the protection of the language and ernment subsidies and thus main- was to become part of Germany it- the cultural heritage. The Crimean tained their loyalty to the Crimean self. Fortunately the Nazi plans Tatars believed and believe to this authorities. All the while Crimean were thwarted, but shortly after- day that the best format for ensur- Tatar national movement sur- wards Crimea was subject to a new ing such guarantees is a Crimean passed them in quantity, organiza- wave of racial experimentation, Tatar national autonomy within tion, independence, and, most im- this time by the Soviets. Ukraine. portantly, its objectives that In May 1944 the entire Such demands infuriated the reached far beyond strictly ethno- Crimean Tatar people was de- post-Soviet half-communist party graphic interests. Being in con- ported from the peninsula. Several half-criminal clan elites that after stant opposition to the local au- weeks later followed the Bulgarian, the collapse of the USSR already thorities, the Crimean Tatar Armenian and Greek diasporas began building up a "comfortable" (the Germans having been de- structure of Crimea's politics for ported before occupation in sum- themselves. The typical counterar- Categorical objection mer 1941). gument to the demands of the to the status of Crimean The analysis of the reasons for Crimean Tatar national movement deportation is a vast topic for a sep- was the response along the lines of Tatars as the peninsula's arate discussion. It should be men- "You're not alone in Crimea". Ac- indigenous people became tioned, though, that those reasons cording to this logic, the Crimean were exclusively racial rather than population's ethnic diversity itself a tenet of the state policy political, as no amount of previous precluded the possibility of restor- both in Simferopol and, achievement and no amount of loy- ing Crimean Tatar national auton- alty could save Crimean Tatars: omy. Categorical objection to the unfortunately, in Kyiv neither war veterans, nor party status of Crimean Tatars as the members were spared. peninsula's indigenous people be- movement was also seen as the In the late 1950s the Bulgari- came a tenet of the state policy agent of "Ukrainian interests" on ans, Armenians and Greeks were both in Simferopol and, unfortu- the peninsula. This perception is allowed to return to Crimea. A de- nately, in Kyiv. To back its stance maintained to this day… with all cade later the Germans were given the government would seek sup- the dangerous consequences it the green light as well, yet the port from other ethnic minorities may bring under today's Russian Crimean Tatars weren't as fortu- of the region, trying to create an ar- occupation. nate. The appeals of the commu- tificial conflict between the So the tactics employed by the nists among the deportees to the Crimean Tatars in one corner and authorities to divide Crimea's eth- "principles of Lenin's national pol- "Crimea's multitude of nations" in nic groups onto the different sides icy" only resulted in government the other. The demagogues would of the ideological fence are old as denouncing the "sweeping accusa- stress that none of Crimea's many the world itself: divide and con- tions of aiding the invaders", but ethnic groups is above all others. quer. And, as we can see, those not the permission to repatriate. There's no denying that having have been in use on the peninsula Having achieved the Tsar's age-old "superior" and "inferior" ethnic for a very long time. dream of cleansing Crimea from groups is unacceptable, yet this Putting your citizens in dis- the Tatars, Moscow wasn't resting was never part of Crimean Tatars tinctly unequal conditions and by on its "laurels". The deported peo- demands. National statehood itself artificially fueling the manipulated ples suffered more inequality, (and national autonomy in particu- conflict between them is the easi- where some were "pardoned" while lar) is not an issue of "racial superi- est way to prevent their consolida- others faced continued oppression. ority" or even ethnicity-based priv- tion into a single front of dissent, a ileges, but simply of political recog- way to avert the emergence of a Divide et impera nition of the fact that every force capable of pushing the ma- During the Perestroika Moscow fi- territory has its indigenous and nipulators out into the dustbin of nally allowed Crimean Tatars to non-indigenous peoples. This fact history. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|37 Crimea|History 1946 the peninsula once again be- came a regular region (oblast) of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Crimean Anchor Republic and in 1954 it was trans- ferred to the Ukrainian Soviet So- cialist Republic. On January 20, 1991 Crimea conducted the first of The rationale behind transferring the peninsula USSR's independence referendums, to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 upon which it regained autonomy within Ukraine on February 12. he status of Crimea is one of Author: The peninsula was finally con- How: Per the law or per justice? Europe's most sensitive issues Serhiy quered by the Bolsheviks in Novem- Find yourself two lawyers and these days. There was a time Hromenko ber 1920 and became part of Russia you'll get three opinions. This say- Twhen Lviv was firm on the as just another governorate. On Oc- ing is especially true if those lawyers minds of Polish hotheads, while tober 18, 1921 as part of the "nativ- represent two different hostile Germans had claims for Gdańsk ization" policy (or Crimean-Tata- countries, therefore it applies to the and Kaliningrad. But those times rization as it was locally referred to), Crimean issue. The Russian side of have gone and those claims will as well as to promote the Soviet or- the argument is that the Presidium likely never again reemerge on the der among the "workers of the Mus- of the Soviet Union’s Supreme agenda. lim East", the governorate was Council had no authority to alter the In the meantime, Russia's an- given the status of Crimean Autono- borders of the Russian Soviet Fed- nexation of the Crimean peninsula mous Socialist Soviet Republic. In erative Socialist Republic by passing birthed quite a tsunami of political a resolution, as it was not on the list and history-related debate, and the of powers determined for it by Arti- reasoning in it is capable of con- cle 33 of the Constitution. Similarly founding even the most studied of the borders of the USSR according scholars. Great many American and to the Constitution could only be al- European periodicals came out with tered by the Supreme Council itself, articles "explaining" to whom but not its Presidium, which did so Crimea really belongs and whether with its decree on February 19 (art. seizing the territory of a neighbor- 14 and 31). Therefore the grounds of ing state can be seen as "restoring Crimea's transfer are of question- historical justice". Without compre- able legality to say the least, if not hensive and well-founded analysis outright illegitimate. of all the pros and cons Ukraine has The Ukrainian side will argue little hope for empathy of the West- that the change of peninsula's status ern societies. The conventional par- tisan divide goes between the patri- otic, and legally correct "Crimea is Ukrainian" standpoint, and "Crimea is Russian" because of the myth that Sevastopol is "the city of Russian navy glory" (and, not least because of punishment for calls for separat- ism in Russia that urge people to take the latter stand). The article be- low looks at it from the position of a regular European citizen and tries to show sine ira et studio how and, most importantly, why Crimea got transferred by Russia to Ukraine in 1954. Historical background For thousands of years Crimea was inhabited by hundreds of peoples, from Cimmerians to Krymchaks; its territory belonged to hundreds of empires, from the Roman to the Ot- toman, and it wasn't until 1783 that the Russian double-headed eagle began its reign over the peninsula. A number of local and occupying gov- ernments came and went during the revolution of 1917-1920, but Crimean independence was short- lived. 38|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 History|Crimea was later reinforced by the USSR transfer makes the question some- power struggle or tried to make law passed by the Supreme Council thing of an onion: too many layers amends for his part in the mass per- on April 26. And given that the law to peel them off without breaking a secution. As far as the power strug- has a superior legal power to that of tear. One should carefully separate gle is concerned, it is clear enough. a decree, the transfer of Crimea was one from another. On the top is the The decision was collective, there- thus legitimized. Even if the Presidi- official version stated in the resolu- fore any kind of personal allegiance um's violation of procedure resulted tion of the Presidium of the Russian of the comrades from the Ukrainian in a legitimate law being passed to SSR passed on February 5, 1954, the Communist Party was not to be ex- approve an illegitimate decree, the decree the Presidium of the USSR pected. The same can be said about subsequent constitutional process Supreme Council passed on Febru- the persecution: even if Khrushchev removes all possible contradictions. ary 19 and the USSR law as of the had guilty conscience about it, the First of all, by passing the very April 26: '…taking into consider- fact of persecution in Ukraine was law in question the Supreme Council ation the integration of economies, not officially recognized by the So- of the USSR amended Articles 22 territorial proximity and close busi- viet Union until the 20th Congress and 23 of the then 1936 Constitution, ness and cultural ties…'. Paradoxi- of the Communist Party (in 1956 – which determined the territorial cally, this failed to satisfy most of Ed.), therefore he had nothing to structure of the Russian SFSR and the post-Soviet scholars and politi- apologize for. the Ukrainian SSR. Secondly, the cians, and so began the great quest Myth #3. It made sense eco- Russian SFSR Supreme Council for true reasons "concealed by the nomically. Ironically, this is the one amended its own Constitution re- powers that be". favored by most Ukrainian patriots. moving Crimean Oblast from the list Myth #1. It was Nikita Khrush- The gist is that by transferring of its territories. Thirdly, the new chev's "generous gift" to his "be- Crimea to Ukraine Moscow simply Constitution of the USSR (1977), as loved" Ukraine on the 300th anni- handed Kyiv the burden of rebuild- well as the new Constitutions of the versary of the Treaty of Pereyaslav ing the devastated post-war region. Russian SFSR and the Ukrainian and the "unification" (the 1654 This is only part-myth, because Ni- SSR (1978) explicitly define Crimea treaty between Cossack Hetmanate kita Khrushchev’s son Sergei con- as the territory of Ukraine. and Muscovy was often used by So- firmed that his father indeed sought Given that the Constitution pos- viet and post-Soviet Russian leader- to rearrange the economic manage- sesses the highest legal power and ship as argument in support of the ment of the Ukrainian South and cannot be overruled, all other docu- the Crimean peninsula into a single ments must be brought to compli- Sevastopol and Crimea republic. However, 10 years before ance with it. And thus, all the talk the construction of the North questioning the legitimacy of the were determined as parts Crimean Canal began, this was in- procedure of Crimea's transfer to tended as a project of state impor- Ukraine becomes null and void. of the Ukrainian SSR by the tance, a Union-wide "Great Con- What is in the Constitution is by republican Constitution struction Project of Communism", definition absolutely legitimate. i.e. it was developed by the efforts of As for the city of Sevastopol, the idea of Russia and Ukraine being the entire Soviet Union. Addition- situation here is pretty much the "brotherly nations" – Ed.). Web of ally, the peninsula was not that dev- story of the peninsula in miniature. lies! First off, after Stalin's death astated anyway by that time. During In 1948 the city was excluded from (1953) and before the personality the post-war decade most of the fa- Russia's Crimean region and as- cult was denounced (1956) Nikita cilities would have been rebuilt or signed Republican Subordination. Khrushchev could not run the So- created from ground up like the It should be noted that the docu- viet Union single-handedly. Sure, railway station in Simferopol. And, ments regarding the transfer of he was the First Secretary of the finally, the burden would not have Crimea to Ukraine have no mention Central Committee of the Commu- landed exclusively onto the shoul- of Sevastopol. Therefore, say the nist Party, but the formal Soviet ders of the Ukrainian SSR because Russians, Sevastopol remained part leader was Kliment Voroshilov, the the republic did not have its own in- of the Russian SFSR and must now head of the Presidium of the Su- dependent budget, thus any addi- belong to Russia. preme Council. Meanwhile the ex- tional expenditures would simply But the answer to this claim is ecutive branch was headed by the have been subsidized from the cen- exactly the same as the one regard- chairman of the Council of Minis- tre. In 1950 the subsidies made just ing the peninsula itself: while there ters Georgy Malenkov. Both be- 0.6% of the republican budget in- is no legal document reassigning longed to Stalin's old guard. Such a come, in 1955 (after the transfer of Sevastopol's subordination to Kyiv, decision unilaterally taken by Crimea) they made 13.4%. That’s a according to the Constitutions of Khrushchev would be unthinkable, 22-fold increase! All in all, one the Russian SFSR and the Ukrai- so it must have been a collective should not overestimate Crimea's nian SSR of 1978 the city is part of one. On top of that, there is zero evi- economic "burden". Ukraine and does not appear on the dence in archives to support the Myth #4. Financial conspiracy. list of Russia's administrative units. idea about "timing" the event to co- Another legend floating the internet It is written into the two constitu- incide with the Treaty of Pereyaslav is that in February 1929 Soviet Rus- tions – end of story. anniversary. sia made a deal with an interna- Myth #2. If the version pre- tional company called Agro-Joint, Why: the multi-layer sented by Vladimir Putin on May which was to provide a multi-mil- onion of a question 18, 2014 is to be believed, Khrush- lion loan secured by land in Crimea. The vast number of myths sur- chev sought to gain support of the According to the myth, the payout rounding the reasons for Crimea's local Ukrainian party ranks in his deadline specified in the agreement № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|39 Crimea|History was coming up in 1954, so the asset son, especially the things done over the All-Russian Central Executive was simply offloaded to Ukraine in and over again. And if all the na- Committee over the Council of So- order to get rid of the liability. Yet tional suburbs ended up being in- viet Commissars and Central Exec- the proponents of this version failed fested with ethnic enclaves that utive Committees and economy to provide any kind of archive evi- stood in the way of stabilizing the councils of the independent repub- dence or witness testimony to back political borders and constantly in- lics, which is to say the replacement their story. Instead they are often cited ethnic conflicts, it must have of the fictitious independence with a keen to lump together everything been by someone's design. The "de- true internal autonomy of republics from the actual deals made in the signer" in question is obvious: none in terms of language and culture, 1920s to the Jewish autonomous other than the Russian SFSR Peo- justice and internal affairs, agricul- settlements on the peninsula, plans ple’s Commissar on Nationalities, ture and so on”, because “the young to create the "Crimean California" – and later the General Secretary of generation of communists on the all generously garnished with the periphery no longer treat this game names of the Rockefellers and the of independence as just an act, and Roosevelts. This kind of machina- Today’s Russia is following are insistent on taking indepen- tion, however, would be more apro- Stalin’s guidelines, dence seriously” (memo addressed pos in the world of the early 1990s to Lenin). post-Soviet thug-like businessmen, as it incites separatism Lenin disapproved. Here is a rather than the one of intergovern- in neighboring countries quote of his letter to Kameniev: mental agreements. The truth is “Chapter 1 of the "introduction" to that the 1929 agreement was signed in order to create the Russian SFSR should read: 'For- between Agro-Joint and the Land in its neighborhood mal unification together with the Committee of the Central Executive Russian SFSR into a Union of Sovi- Committee of the Soviet Union and a grey beltline of instability ets Republics of Europe and Asia'… approved by the Union-wide Coun- made out of unrecognized we recognize ourselves as being on cil of the People’s Commissars. equal terms with the Ukrainian SSR Therefore the transfer of Crimea republics and the rest, and together on equal would not rid the USSR from the li- footing we enter the new union, the ability. Funnily enough the date the Central Committee of the Com- new federation, the Union of Soviet "1954" doesn't even feature in the munist Party of the Soviet Union Republics of Europe and Asia”. text of the agreement. Joseph Stalin, as well as those that Back then Lenin's concept of But if it was neither the volun- succeeded him. formal equality did win (and was tarism, internal power struggle nor It all started with Stalin’s fa- written into the Agreement on the the economy that became the rea- mous autumn 1922 disagreement establishment of the USSR of De- son for transferring Crimea to with Lenin regarding the future for- cember 30, 1922), but it was Stalin Ukraine, what prompted the Soviet mat of the Soviet Union. Jugashvili who had the last laugh. Having authorities to make such a move? ( Stalin’s birth name – Ed.) pro- started his reign with unseen cen- The answer is impossible to find posed to play tough with the social- tralization of state power and total Simfereopol- looking at local factors alone, in- Yalta trolleybus, ist republics and to simply make replacement of government appara- stead one has to see the bigger pic- the first them part of Russia as autonomies: tus with the one of the Communist ture and take a look at the Soviet innovation “True unification […] into one eco- party, the "father of nations" ended Union in its entirety. signifying nomic entity with formal power of up carving the borders of Soviet re- Crimea’s life as the Council of Soviet Commissars, publics and even relocating entire Enclave doctrine part of Ukraine the Council of Labor and Defence, nations (Crimea "moved" later, but Have you ever wondered why Transnistria – the historically Ukrainian and completely "Slavic- speaking" region – ended up as a part of Moldavian SSR? What was the thinking behind splitting Osse- tia between the Russian SFSR and the Georgian SSR and why was the latter handed Abkhazia? How come the Armenian-populated Nagorno- Karabakh ended up under Azerbai- jani rule, and the ethnically Uzbek Fergana Valley part of the Kyrgyz Republic? What was the rationale behind carving the republican bor- ders in the North Caucasus and the Volga Region in the way it was done? Why does such a dispropor- tionally large percentage of Rus- sians reside in the North of Kazakh- stan and the Baltic states? USSR has done a lot of wrong, but those things were usually done for a rea- 40|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 well within the same rationale; also ate conflicts that would require the note the case of Kaliningrad). Of resolution seeking authorities to ad- course, such moves were not officially dress the "big brother": Fergana Val- announced or explained, but now it ley, Karabakh, Abkhazia, Ossetia. will take a blind person not to see how There are long-standing latent con- Stalin brought about his carefully flicts over the disputed territory be- crafted plan, which can be aptly called tween Ossetia and Ingushetia, as well the enclave doctrine. as inside Dagestan. Clashes are bound So what is this doctrine all about to spark in Kabardino-Balkaria and then? Let us return to Stalin's rea- Karachaevo-Cherkessia. There a mis- soning during the debate regarding match between administrative bor- the format of the USSR. The future ders and ethnic clustering of Ta- tyrant saw the biggest threat to the tarstan and Bashkiria. The shrewd new Union in the prospect of inde- handling of the sides of these "orches- pendent foreign policy conducted by trated conflicts" strengthens Russia as Soviet republics, further exacerbated an empire, and the fact that ethnic by the possibility of their exodus Russians tend to be among the casual- from the Bolshevik empire. The au- ties never seemed to cause much con- tonomy that he proposed for cern. Ukraine, Belarus and the South Cau- casus was supposed to iron out this Present day problem, but since the path of con- All things considered, the transfer of federation based on formal parity Crimea was neither motivated by had been selected, Stalin had to find some kind of extraordinary love for a workaround. If one cannot bar the Ukraine, nor driven by economic cal- republics from declaring indepen- culation, and neither was it a part of dence, one can still make the cost of some power struggle. Instead it was such a process too high to bear. The the age-old strategy of "mooring" the first safeguard came in the form of USSR's republics by Russia's side us- the Kremlin-controlled Union-wide ing "anchor-regions". And while this punitive apparatus and the army does not take away the importance of (eventually Moscow attempted to use historic ties between Crimea and it in Tbilisi 1989 and Vilnius 1991). Ukraine and their integrated infra- The second safeguard emerged in the structure, admittedly Kremlin has shape of Moscow-oriented ethnic mi- succeeded in its strategy. At the dawn norities (something that the former of the '90s the peninsula would rou- People’s Commissar on Nationalities tinely destabilize the political situa- cut his teeth on). Which is why tion in Ukraine pulling one stunt after throughout the entire existence of another (like declaring independence the USSR Kremlin pursued the pol- or synching its time zone with Mos- icy of adjoining the territories with cow), later it would become an elec- "alien" population into various toral stronghold of Party of Regions Union's republics, and on top of that and the communists, and now it "took actively encouraged ethnic Russians' off" to a foreign country. migration to the periphery. Thinking that the enclave doc- The above resulted in the situa- trine has been resigned to history tion we see today. Pro-Russian en- along with the USSR would be naive. claves are acting as anchors designed The Russian Federation of today has to keep the republics at bay, to pre- dusted off Stalin's manual and is fol- vent the newly formed countries from lowing it meticulously, as it incites drifting out of the sphere of Russian separatism in neighboring countries influence: Narva in Estonia, Transnis- in order to create in its neighborhood tria in Moldova, Crimea and the a grey beltline of instability made out southern Donbas in Ukraine (Donetsk of unrecognized republics. And by do- and Luhansk used to be UNR's border ing so Russia itself does not gain towns), there are also very consider- strength per se, it does, however, able Russian diasporas in Belarus and weaken its neighbors. Trying to coun- Kazakhstan. The Lithuanian SSR has terattack the enclave doctrine head- been offered opportunity to take over on would be an inexcusable waste of the Kaliningrad region no less than time and energy. The only adequate one three occasions (!!!) in 1945, 1963 response would be using the very and even as recently as in 1987. Vil- same strategy to achieve own objec- nius, however, wisely declined, and in tives, like, for instance, supporting the doing so saved itself a great deal of anti-Russian residents of Crimea and headache. "Alien" enclaves and spite- Donbas, and then (you never know), fully laid borders in the Caucasus and perhaps, anti-imperial underground the Central Asia were designed to cre- in Russia itself. neighbours|Latvian experience what should be done in this coun- try, what it needs to do and what Vaira Vike-Freiberga: other countries need to do to help it. I have myself seen four different scenarios of possible developments “The most important in Ukraine. All four include actions by the West and manners of han- element for the future dling sanctions, because no one wants a nuclear war. of Ukraine is what The West claims that it does not want a Cold War, but we have it already. Just read and compare Ukrainians do themselves” Vladimir Putin’s speeches with those of Barack Obama or the NATO General Secretary - they are not from the same universe. So, whether you call a Cold War or whatever, the rhetoric, the narra- tive is entirely different. Russia has a unique way of looking at things, distorting facts to its own advan- tage that simply is not accepted by most people in the West. The invasion and annexation of Crimea was a surprise to the West. They certainly were not expecting that; they thought that the Buda- pest Memorandum would be re- spected. Well, it’s not. When it was written, there was absolutely no thought of any plan B either. Still, in all scenarios of Ukraine’s future, the central and most important ele- ment is what Ukrainians do them- selves in their country or what is left of it, no matter how much is in- vaded by the foreign troops. U.W.: 10 years after the Baltic States entered the EU, we still say “new” and “old” member states. Do you still feel the difference? Of course… 50 years of Com- munism is the difference. It surely o by Andriy Lom a kin o by

t affected the infrastructure, leaving

P ho it in a terrible condition. In Latvia some roads still are. Portugal man- Interviewed he Ukrainian Week tal­ plan B in very important situations, aged to build more roads then they by ked to Vaira Vike-Freiberga, because they feel that having a need when they got European aid. Olha the sixth President of Latvia, choice will immediately split such a We have so many needs that we Vorozhbyt Tabout the EU’s strategies to- large group. For instance, when haven’t been able to rebuild all old wards Ukraine, differences be- they wanted to have a new consti- roads even with European aid. tween new and old member-states tution adopted, I kept saying what Then, take our scientific labs… and ways to counter Russian pro- if one of the countries vetoes it, be- Since during Soviet times most of paganda. cause it has a right to do so? The the top research was done at secret answer was: “Oh no, you mustn’t institutes in Moscow, many of our U.W.: In one of your lectures you talk about that, because it will give labs do not have sufficient infra- said that the EU lacks plan B in its people the idea that there is an al- structure. Many European scientific politics, economics, etc. This is seen ternative”. Sometimes, the lack of projects require collaboration with well in the way it has been dealing plan B is a tactical choice. They other countries. Some years ago with the : there are have plan A, want to implement it when I finished my presidency, the no back-up policies for cases where and take everybody on board. Commissioner for Science asked me the initial ones do not work. How When one country vetoes it, they to chair a committee which evalu- can the EU teach itself to create start debating plan B publicly. ated the newly created European those back–up options? In case of Ukraine there are a Research Council (it gives research Strangely enough, I discovered lot of think-tanks both inside the grants at all levels in Europe). I told that the EU does not like to have a country and abroad debating as to them to look at the map of who got 42|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Latvian experience|neighbours the grants – I saw an invisible Iron journalists here that are not paid by Bio life. So, these things develop slowly curtain going through Europe, be- local oligarchs or Russia. That is Vaira Vike over time. Freiberga cause all of the centers of excellence something very hard to find. I used is the sixth I would say that the real basic were in Western Europe and none to chair a committee asked to evalu- President of Lat- pillar of democracy is made up of in the East. I asked whether it was ate media plurality and freedom in via and the first the accumulation of the best that really true that there are no smart Europe. The Commission does not female President human minds have produced in the scientists in Eastern Europe. The regulate that, but it is part of Euro- of Latvia. She past, selected and adjusted to pres- answer was that they do not meet pean values, a free and open press. served as Presi- ent days, and re-evaluated by each the Western criteria of excellence, We found that the situation with the dent for two generation anew. You need a stable, which include collaboration with free press is not ideal even in well- terms (1999- well-educated middle class that can other universities. Yet someone who established democracies. England 2007). During read, understand and analyze infor- her presidency, mation critically. We have had lived behind the Iron Curtain was had a big scandal with the Murdoch Latvia became by definition excluded from collabo- empire, the Leveson Inquiry discov- member of the many education reforms that are ration with those on the other side. ered many corrupt deals between EU and NATO. supposed to teach children critical 50 years of Communism have the press, politicians and the police. She earned her skills, not just basic ones. But it is put us behind in many ways and we We recommended that newspa- PhD in experi- not that simple. I personally think have worked hard to catch up. Some pers, for instance, should have mental psychol- that basic skills such as reading, countries have moved forward mastheads saying who their real ogy from McGill writing, arithmetic, spelling and faster and have better resources. owners are rather than specifying University in memorizing poetry, are important Poland was supposed to be the “sick offshore companies in the Virgin Is- 1965. She is flu- to the development of critical think- man of Europe” at the beginning of lands or Jersey. That sort of infor- ent in English, ing when the mind is mature and French, Latvian, accession talks. But it has survived mation is almost impossible to get. Spanish and Ger- ready enough for it. Meanwhile, economic and financial crises better As for diversity of opinion, that is man. Now she is many people are grown-up children than most Western European coun- part of democracy. Take : Head of Club de looking for guidance. Some look for tries. These things are unpredict- you pick up a left- or a right-wing Madrid – an in- extremist ideologies because they able. In fact, Poland is doing rather paper there and you know where dependent club make them feel more important. well compared to, say, Greece or you stand. First, that gives you a of 95 former There is a case of a French boy who Spain at the moment. choice. Second, you know what it is. democratically found ads about how to become a The major division is now be- Propaganda is something that is fed elected presi- Muslim on the internet, converted tween North and South. That is em- to you without you being aware of it dents and prime- to Islam at 17 and saw an ad for re- phasized more often than the line or without there being alternatives. ministers. cruitment of warriors to be trained between “old” and “new” countries. It is like that in Russia now: every- for the jihad. He went to Syria, I Countries like the Baltic States, Po- thing is under the Kremlin’s control think, or to some place nearby and land and Lithuania put Eastern and that is very dangerous, because is now on Youtube with a big beard, Partnership on their agenda and you can zombie the population. You in a row of men, cutting off heads of among priorities in the EU. Latvia can literally use neuro-linguistic Syrian pilots. takes over the presidency in the Eu- programming whereby you repeat ropean Council on January 1st and the same message again and again. U.W.: What mistakes, in your it will have on opinion, the EU has made in its its list of priorities. For countries U.W.: Russian propaganda seems Russia policy? What should it be like Greece, Spain, Italy and Portu- to be pretty sophisticated.T hey now? gal, Africa is of the greatest priority. create separate groups of people After the collapse of the Soviet What we need in Europe is solidar- (right or left extremists, peace Union, the West in general took a ity whereby people from Estonia or activists) and provide them with very romantic view of Russia. I have Latvia go into committees that deal information which is partly true heard it particularly from my good with refugees heading to Italy or and is sensitive to them. What are friend Jacques Chirac – he learned Spain from North and Sub-Saharan ways to deal with these risk groups Russian when he was young and Africa, while South-European coun- in society? has great sympathy towards Russia. tries are interested in what happens That is the concern about how But France is far enough from Rus- in Ukraine. In other words, Europe far you can control them without sia. I asked him whether his idea of is still in a process of integration infringing basic principles, such as Russia was of a troika going in the and 10 years is a short time in his- freedom of expression, assembly snow, with fur banquets over it and tory. I think that a lot has been done and press. To me, theoretically at spectacular churches with onion in that area. I myself think that Eu- least, the human mind, just like na- domes. He said, “Yes, this is my im- ropeans do not even appreciate how ture, will not tolerate a vacuum. age of Russia”. He argued that since much has been accomplished People feel the need of ideology, a Communism had disappeared as a within this past decade. But natu- set of values, something they can system, the Russians would become rally more still needs to be done. believe in. This is how the Euro- like us. We would be nice to the pean and Western values have de- Russians and they would be nice to U.W.: At the moment both veloped, but they did so very grad- us. Now, the Europeans say that Ukraine and the EU have to ually. Not so long ago, it was public Ukrainians have to be nice to the counter Russian propaganda. entertainment in many countries Russians and they will be nice to What methods do you as a of Europe to watch a hanging or you. But the sad thing is that they psycholinguist see as the most beheading. The abolition of the are not. Stalin wasn’t nice, Musso- effective to that end? death penalty in Europe was an im- lini wasn’t nice, Hitler wasn’t nice I think that you need indepen- portant step because it created a and I am afraid to say that Mr. Putin dent newspapers with investigative different attitude towards human also is not a nice man. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|43 Neighbours|Russia Lev Gudkov: "Immorality and cynicism are essential components of the Russian public space"

Interviewed he Ukrainian Week spoke waned, the discontent was grow- trative pressure and wary of illegal by Hanna to Lev Gudkov, Director of ing, and after Putin's return to the takeovers. According to the re- Trehub the Levada Center sociologi- presidential post, the numbers of search conducted by our col- Tcal group, about the actual his sympathizers dwindled. We are leagues, 16% of all businessmen in support of the annexation of talking about a very conventional Russia are under arrest for eco- Crimea and military activities in Russian middle class, that doesn't nomic crimes, and this is a huge Ukraine in the Russian society, the have very many similarities with its figure. 9 out of 10 of such cases are lack of understanding among Rus- European counterpart. In is com- never concluded with a court sen- sian citizens of their responsibility prised mainly of state officials and tence. In Russia, courts and judi- for Russia's aggressive foreign pol- businessmen who found them- cial system are used as an instru- icy, and their inability to protest ef- selves utterly limited in their devel- ment for unfair competition, and fectively. opment due to a number of rea- as a tool for corporate raiding. sons. These include corruption, Another problem of the Rus- U.W.: What kind of strong fiscal pressure on busi- sian middle class is the lack of in- transformations took place in the nesses (which they would have tol- stitutional mechanisms of govern- Russian society since 2000, the erated), and the lack of indepen- ment accountability that would first year ofP utin's first dent courts. Due to this latter fac- have exposed the entire regime to a presidency? tor, private property is not great risk (transparent and fair – After the 2008 crisis, the protected, and a huge number of elections, change of leadership pro- support for the regime in Russia businessmen are under adminis- cedures, etc.). And the third prob- 44|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Russia|Neighbours lem is the freedom of the press. Pu- pire proved to be extremely impor- from the Soviet one. It is omnipres- tin's rise to power was accompa- tant. Its loss in 1991, with the col- ent, because practically all sources nied by a new war in Chechnya and lapse of the USSR, caused an ex- of alternative thought are silenced. the introduction of strict censor- tremely strong frustration, and the 95% of the population create their ship and a monopoly on television trauma still remains. I reviewed own picture of the reality basing on broadcasting. Up to 95% of all Rus- the data of our surveys conducted what they see on TV. The Internet, sian TV stations are controlled by in 2000 (at the time when Putin in which liberals invested their the Kremlin. After the growing dis- became president), when expecta- hopes, does not help either: the content of the population resulted tions for the advent of an authori- Kremlin has learned to deal with it. in mass protests of 2011-2012, the tarian leader who would lead the Only 18% of Russian citizens be- media market of the country was country out of the crisis were ex- lieve the web or social networks to reshaped: the oligarchs closely tremely wide-spread. At that time, be reliable sources of information. connected to the regime, under the people aspired first of all to restor- The web today is overloaded with pressure from the government, ing their living standards, and after Kremlin trolls and information bought up media holding compa- that, to regaining the superpower sources. nies and started controlling the status. Issues like healthcare or the press. The remaining two or three fight against corruption and crime more or less independent publica- were somewhere on the margins of For the humiliated, tions (based primarily in Moscow) public awareness. In this way, the dependent, poor people have only a tiny share of the Rus- symbolic rather than the practical sian information space. component of Russian aspirations who are under pressure Russian provinces are very is overwhelming. from the authorities, much like your Donbas, preserving In Russia, Russian nationalism all kind of Soviet vestiges and the as an emancipatory movement was the status of a superpower remnants of the sectoral structure never very important. It was seen is extremely important and the heavy industry inherited rather as a compensatory, protec- from the USSR. Local residents are tive, nostalgic, with sentiments of The television technologies are well aware of the fact that the mar- the past, but without the image of extremely aggressive and Or- ket economy undermines the very the future. wellian. The state propaganda is possibility of their existence, since not so much anti-Ukrainian in na- they would be utterly uncompeti- U.W.: The Revolution of Dignity in ture (even though it is by all ap- tive should they abide by its rules. Ukraine, the subsequent pearances), but is rather aimed at BIO Without state subsidies, govern- annexation of Crimea and the Lev Gudkov discrediting the liberal and demo- ment contracts, social support for outbreak of the war in the Donbas is a Russian soci- cratic ideas and values that the the needy, and investments in so- were bound to affect the ologist. Since Russian citizens might have pre- cial infrastructure, they would not sentiments of the Russian citizens. 2006, he is the served to this day. This includes survive. Therefore, public senti- What was the situation a year Director of Yuri the rule of law, the orientation to- ments in the Russian provinces are ago, and how things have Levada Analyti- wards the West and Europe, and so dominated by conservative, anti- changed since? Tell us about the cal Center and on. The most important point serv- Western moods and nostalgia for actual level of support for the Editor-in-Chief of ing as a backdrop is the following: the Soviet era. This accounts for invasion of Crimea and the the Russian Pub- "Do you want change, reforms and military activities on the Ukrainian lic Opinion jour- 20-45% of the Russian population. nal. He is a PhD a new government that will guar- There are also people that are out- territory. graduate of the antees you stability? Look at what's side of politics. These are the resi- – A year ago, in November Faculty of Jour- going on in Ukraine: civil war, loss dents of the national republics or 2013, there were no active anti- nalism of Mos- of life, bombings, and destruction." remote settlements that are return- Ukrainian sentiments whatsoever. cow State Uni- For the Russians frustrated by the ing to pre-modern modes of life. According to our research, when versity. He crisis of the 1990s (perhaps even I am personally surprised by Maidan started, 65-70% of the teaches Cultural more than elsewhere in the former the population’s deepest contempt Russians believed that Kyiv's ori- Sociology at the Soviet Union), this statement for the modern-day Russian politi- entation towards the West and the Institute of Euro- sounds remarkably strong. cal elite. However, this attitude is European integration was an inter- pean Cultures of Russian population’s support the Russian explained by the dissatisfaction nal Ukrainian affair, and that Rus- State University for the annexation of Crimea is an with the scale of state paternalism sia did not need to intervene in any for the Humani- absolute fact, and it stays at ap- and the government's refusal to way. The quasi-moral position of ties and Political proximately the same level. Rus- fulfill its social obligations. A tacit the Russian government, that is, Sociology at the sia's seizure of the peninsula consensus about any Russian gov- the protection of the Russian popu- Moscow Higher caused a nationalistic and patriotic ernment is that it takes care of the lation on the territory of a foreign School of Social upsurge, improved Putin's plum- Russian population. In Ukraine, state, caused the approval of the and Economic meting ranking, and brought it to the Kremlin behaved exactly as it annexation of Crimea and the Sciences. He the highest level since the summer was expected to by the Russian citi- fighting in Eastern Ukraine. took part in all of 2008, at the time of the Geor- zens: it showed care and provided The situation is aggravated by major analytical gian war. The numbers of the an- projects con- protection. the fact that since the second half ducted by nexation supporters have de- For the humiliated, dependent, of January 2014, we have had to Levada Center, creased, but only slightly. Here we poor people who are chronically deal with a different state, a differ- including Soviet are not talking about a drop in the under pressure from the authori- ent Russia. This is a country of to- Man, Bureau- support for the Russian president ties and are extremely envious, the tal unprecedented propaganda. Its cracy, Russian and for his actions, but about a status of a superpower and an em- technology significantly differs Nationalism, etc. growing anxiety about the chang- № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|45 Neighbours|Russia ing situation and the crisis caused because "power is dirty, corrupt, from the Soviet times and the Putin by the sanctions against Moscow. and nothing can be done about it." era. A social explosion in Russia The initial willingness to endorse This is the Soviet experience, the will not happen in response to the the invasion of Ukraine by the Rus- aftereffect of totalitarianism, and deteriorating economic situation. sian army was also very high (in an example of the passive adapta- It will explode when the authorities March and April, such actions were tion to the repressive state regime. try to take away the last that people supported by 74%, and today by The demands are held down, and still have. 38% of the population). Today, the individuals are locked in their pri- Who will come to power after levels of anxiety and concerns vate, mostly family circle and do Putin is rather obscure. Whether about the economic decline, which, not make splashes. In your kitchen, Russia is capable of escaping on its frankly, is not entirely caused by you are free to blame the regime as own from the shell of authoritari- the western sanctions, are high. much as you wish, but you cannot anism, where it is trapped, is a The general state of the Russian take part in real changes and deci- complicated question. For the last economy was quite gloomy already sion making process, and after all, 25 years, Soviet institutions of state a year ago. Late 2013 marked the it is pointless. Immorality and cyn- power and government agencies beginning of a stagnation related to icism are essential components of have been reinstated in Russia, the inefficient management of the the Russian public space. There- from the judiciary to the education economy (which has a rather large fore, although the RF authorities system. The economy, mobility and state share) and, consequently, are mafia-connected, arrogant, and communication principles have with treasury expenditures and corrupt, by this logic they have al- changed. But the Russian identity populist policies pursued by Putin ways been like that, and you just and mentality have remained the to buy the loyalty of the citizens. have to get along with them. same. Real qualitative change may The sharp rise in social spending come about only in one or two gen- did not solve the problem, but U.W.: Please assess the capability erations. rather served as a painkiller. The of today's Russian society to falling oil prices and the cost of protest effectively.C an it become U.W.: How is Levada Center doing fighting in Ukraine speeded up the the foundation for the country's after the adoption of the new degradation of the economy, future? Russian law on "foreign agents" largely affecting the quality of life – Today's protest moods are at that came into force in June 2012? in large cities, where people have the lowest level for the 25 years of What is the future of nonpartisan money, but which depend on im- our research. There has been no sociology in Russia? ports. In addition, a significant negative consolidation or mobiliza- – During 2013/2014, we were blow was delivered to savings and tion over all these years. A repres- subjected to four comprehensive wages that lost if not half, then at sive legal framework has been put inspections. They were conducted least 40% of the value. in place to suppress any move- by the prosecutor's office, the tax ments with the slightest resem- police, the Ministry of Justice and U.W.: Do concepts such as social blance to a protest against the cur- the Interior Ministry, with the ob- responsibility for the actions of the rent Russian authorities. Here we vious participation of the FSB. state represented by the current can talk about the relapse into to- They were interested in the Cen- government, including the ter's foreign financing. The recently annexation of foreign territories, adopted Russian law prohibits re- the undeclared war, and the Authoritarian technology ceiving foreign funding and engag- destruction of the international is based on nurturing ing in political activities at the security system exist among same time. The latter term is inter- ordinary Russian citizens? the population's feelings preted quite arbitrarily. While the – They are non-existent, as of passivity and sociological research in theory is well as the notion of public policy. not prohibited, you cannot publish The logic here is as follows: the au- helplessness its results. The publication of such thorities make decisions, while an data is the objective of our organi- individual may well expressed sup- talitarianism. Talking about the fu- zation, otherwise why would be port, but cannot influence the pro- ture, in the short term all logic of study the various aspects of the cess, and therefore is in no way re- the regime's actions will be limited Russian society? Today, this very sponsible. This is the political situ- to hard-line home policy. activity has become a threat to the ation of an authoritarian regime In my opinion, counting on so- existence of Levada Center. The and its power technology. It is not a cial protests triggered by the dete- prosecutor's office only gave us a totalitarian system, it has no ideol- riorating economic conditions in warning so far. But we are con- ogy and, most importantly, no im- Russia is slightly irrational, almost stantly hunted by the pro-Kremlin age of the future. The authoritarian like hoping for a miracle. In addi- institutions as "foreign agents." Of- technology is based on nurturing tion, the society is not prepared to ficially, we have no such label, al- the population's feelings of passiv- develop the programs that would though many of our colleagues, ity and helplessness (see p. 32). Ac- create alternatives to Putin's re- such as Yelena Nemirovskaya's cordingly, 85% of the Russian citi- gime. In fact, Russia is on the fast Moscow School of Civic Education zens believe that they are unable to track to economic collapse, but the and the Memorial Human Rights influence the authorities even at question is, where the public toler- Center, have to deal with this prob- the local level. And even if they had ance ends. Believe me, this toler- lem. Since our research is commis- such opportunity, they would not ance is incredible, taking into ac- sioned by foreign companies, we be willing to take part in politics count the life strategies inherited are always at risk. 46|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Opinion|Neighbours Ukraine’s Historical Time Zone

hat happened in Euromaidan a year ago will exploited by Russian state-sponsored propaganda? Are force West European and North American there any flesh-and-blood Banderovites in Kyiv today? sociologists to revise their writings. The Were they there a year ago during the Euromaidan Revo- WUkrainian-American political scientist Alex- lution? ander J. Motyl and the Russian writer Vladimir Sorokin In fact, there is a long way to go from plain brainwashand noted that a new Ukraine was born and that we have had propaganda to a more complex phenomenon of the with- a unique opportunity to witness the emergence of a new drawal from present time zone and the return to it. What political nation.This statement, however accurate, is in- lies behind this mechanism is historical trauma, sup- complete, though. pressed pattern of identity, or conflict of identities and It was assumed by social scientists that the 19th century loyalties. We may cease explaining reality as it is and, in- was an epoch of the emergence of the new collective ac- stead, may switch to the past trying to reenact or recover torson the political map of the world. True, after the First it. Hence, countless memory wars in Europe. The with- World War new nation-states came into existence, but drawal-and-return form of existence can therefore be the second half of the 19th century paved the way for this seen not only in the case of adiaphorization of conscious- new civilization-shaping movement. The epoch was ness (abandoning the zone of our human sensitivity tem- called the nation-building century, and also the era of the porarily and then returning to it), but in the troubled springtime of the peoples. What happened after the Sec- historical-political time zone as well. ond World War was perceived as a turning point in world Deep discontent with present time and the resulting history in terms of the closing page in the political saga of temptation to repeat or reenact history appears as one of modern Europe. The nations were born, the state bor- the most explosive and dangerous feelings and condi- ders drawn, and nobody believed that we can step into tions in our world. What results from it is the loss of the the same river twice. Nay, nobody even suspected that sense of social and political time. Dictators or even per- Author: we can change our historical-political time zone. fectly sound individuals with, one would think, unques- Leonidas We were taking for granted for a long time that we were tionable democratic credentials, may think that they can Donskis, living in an increasingly post-national world. The fall of return justice or derive it from the past projecting it onto Lithuania the Wall indicated the end of modern bloody his- the present or the future.Yet not every form of with- tory of opposing ideologies reiterated by Francis Fuku- drawal-and-return poses a grave danger to the world. yama. The blow dealt by a horrible war in the Former In his novel The Winter of Our Discontent, John Stein- Yugoslavia to Europe was twofold: first and foremost, it beck exposed this mechanism as deeply embedded in exposed the impotence, self-inflicted moral and political modern pattern of human behavior: we may vacate the blindness, and self-deception of all Europe’s politics and realm of norms and part with our views and attitudes soft power which culmi- of today for the sake of nated in Srebrenica with During the war in well-being, self-esteem, eight thousand civilians safety, and security of to- killed in two days before the former Yugoslavia, morrow. He describes this the eyes of Dutch peace- individuals, groups, mechanism of living else- keeping forces – far and where for a while for the away the most horrible and societies actively sake of regaining or reen- crime against humanity in reenacted and relived acting control over cir- Europe after WWII; sec- cumstances with the ond, the ease with which the periods of prewar and stroke of genius. This is people jumped fifty years postwar Europe’s history more than true with re- back in time arriving in a gard to the world of na- radically different historical-political time zone. tions. Nationalism has long been regarded by soci- A most horrifying thing in Bosnia-Herzegovina was ologists as a specific phenomenon of the 19th cen- that people were slaughtering each other with the tury, and rightly so. However, this fact itself does names and labels on their lips that had absolutely noth- not mean that nations cannot be reshaped or that they ing to do with reality which one should have described as cannot intensify their daily plebiscite, as Joseph Ernest present. Such labels as Chetniks (that is, Serbian nation- Renan would have had it. Nations may come into exis- alists and monarchists) came back to reality as soon as tence repeatedly, one more time, withdrawing from there was a need to justify a new slaughter in a fratricidal our postmodern reality and celebrating a set of senti- war.Were there any real Chetniks or Ustashi in the for- ments and attitudes that sociologists would ascribe to mer Yugoslavia in the 1990s? Of course, there were none. 19th century or the early 20th. What happened there was that some disturbed or politi- In fact, during the war in the former Yugoslavia, individ- cally troubled individuals withdrew from present reality uals, groups, and societies actively reenacted and relived choosing to live temporarily in a radically different his- the periods of prewar and postwar Europe’s history. It torical-political time zone and to accommodate it again. may well be suggested that Ukraine lives now in its his- They chose to live elsewhere withdrawing from social re- torical-political time zone made up by critical junctures ality and abandoning it for the sake of a phantom, a of modern history and politics enabling and repeating short-term logocratic project, a specter of selective mem- similar or even identical moral choices that were made in ory and willful forgetting. And how about a déjà vu feel- the twentieth century. All in all, a new nation comes into ing on our hearing and reading the label of Banderovites existence. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|47 neighbours|International security Yuriy Sergeyev: “Ukraine wants to create a coalition for the protection of the interests of our region – Europe” o: r e u te rs t pho

Interviewed he Ukrainian Week spo­ cussed for several decades. It was ready articulated this position. All by ­ke to the Permanent Repre- activated in this millennium, with of this will be the subject of a diffi- Olha sentative of Ukraine to the the particularly active phase hap- cult discussion, because the system Vorozhbyt T about the pening right now. Both the Secu- is steeped in bureaucracy. I antici- transformation of the UN, Ukrai­ rity Council and the mechanism of pate that activity to that end will ne’s cooperation with member-na- the General Assembly need to be intensify, but I doubt that the deci- tions with a neutral position and reformed. The Security Council is sion will be approved quickly. isolation of Moscow. the most complicated element of this entire system, because that is U.W: During the vote on the U.W: On November 14, Russia where decisions that are manda- territorial integrity of Ukraine in abstained from voting in the NU tory for execution by all member- February, 58 countries abstained. Security Council for the extension nations are approved, while those How can Kyiv cooperate with of the stabilisation mission in approved in the General Assembly those neutral member-states? Bosnia. Statements were then are of a recommendatory nature. I – It is important to note that sounded that it is links the have the feeling that next year will abstaining is perceived in the UN Ukrainian issue to others in see an active search for solutions as system as an act in favour of a reso- consideration at the Security to how to make the Security Coun- lution, not against it. Many mem- Council. Are there any steps that cil more effective and restrict ber-states made their statements could be taken to transform the UN blocking mechanisms, particularly on the results, even the ones that to prevent this in the short-term under conditions of open conflict, abstained or voted against that res- prospect? when there is a threat to people’s olution, so we conclude that Russia – The issue of the UN system lives. France, one of the member- and a small group of states were reform is not new; it has been dis- states with the veto power, has al- the only ones that did not accept it. 48|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 International security|neighbours Some were contemplating the situ- tory, when their territories were Bio so much isolation, but rather the ation. A number of governments also seized in violation of interna- Yuriy Sergeyev loss of respect to Russia is present. compared it to similar realities in tional law, but they understood is a Ukrainian Moscow should think about ways their own regions; some needed that we have become a victim in diplomat, Am- to renew this trust. additional arguments. The latter this case. They were also victims bassador Ex- Meanwhile, we have to be con- traordinary and appeared later, and we understand once, so they have now stepped Plenipotentiary, cerned with other things. As long why some African countries did not over their own national ambitions, Permanent Rep- as all these crises related to Rus- support the resolution. They ab- and I feel that we have broader resentative of sia’s aggression are present, as stained because they were shocked moral and political support. Ukraine to the long as Crimea is not returned to by the legal consequences of what United Nations us and we do not bring an end to was happening in Ukraine for their U.W: All BRICS countries, except for since 2007. He aggression in Eastern Ukraine, the regions. In order to understand Russia obviously, also abstained served as position of the consolidated world challenges they faced, they needed from voting on the resolution on Ukraine’s Am- in supporting the legal interests of additional consultations on the na- territorial integrity of Ukraine. How bassador to Ukraine is more important to us tional and regional levels, and that about these important partners? France, Greece than is Russia’s position. This is and . of society. Can they take our side in the future? Since 2008, Mr. why we need further consolidation – I feel that they can. We un- Sergeyev has and the solidarity of EU member- U.W: Do you think these states derstand why they abstained. By also served as states, the members of the OSCE could support Ukraine’s position the way, their governments made the Ambassador and individual countries such as in the future? declarations about that. There is of Ukraine to Ba- the USA, Canada, Australia and – We felt and continue to feel assistance from them. Moreover, in hamas Japan. Ukraine needs the solidar- the understanding and contribu- this session, we have already co- ity of regional structures in Africa, tion of the countries that are cur- authored many resolutions spon- such as the African Union, so that rently standing with us against the sored by them or other countries. by defending our national inter- manipulation of international law We have many joint events planned ests, we can help the world to un- for the purposes, such as the an- with each of these countries for the derstand that the whole interna- nexation of Crimea and the occu- current and upcoming years, in- tional security system is under pation or seizure of a territory. It cluding informal ones. Ukraine threat. After Russia failed to fulfil has become clear to them that Rus- and India will jointly conduct an its obligations within the frame- sia made disreputable use of the interesting chess event, with the work of the Budapest Memoran- nations’ right to self-determination support of the UN Secretary-Gen- dum, the foundation of interna- set forth in the UN Charter. They eral. This is our bilateral initiative. tional security as regards the non- also understood something else: With the exception of Russia, we proliferation of nuclear weapons that the application of this provi- have no civilisation clashes with was undermined. Now, the entire sion in this way is a challenge to BRICS members, because India, world has to be made aware that their national security. African South Africa, and Brazil have re- by defending its national and se- countries are built on an ethnic spect for human rights and inter- curity interests, first and foremost, principle. What is happening to- national law as the foundation of Ukraine wants to create a coalition day, for example, in Mali or Libya, their state-building. This is some- for the protection of the interests where separate regions are de- thing that Russia lacks. In other of our region – Europe. Actually, manding independence and ma- words, we have things in common nipulating this particular right, sig- that we can talk about and defend nals to many countries, that the with the above-mentioned coun- Abstaining is perceived situation in Ukraine poses a threat tries. And not only with them, but in the UN system as an act to them. They are now transferring also with other countries of the to the side that Ukraine is on – the world, where respect for basic in favour of a resolution, one protecting international law. rights and freedoms rules: we have not against it Together, we shall decisively act developed a united position and we against the use of any provision of can build cooperation with them. we are consolidating all coun- the UN Charter in conflict with an- tries around ourselves in order to other provision (namely territorial U.W: At the G20 summit we saw strengthen trust and security mea- integrity, which everyone is sup- that Russia is being diplomatically sures in the world – this is what is posed to comply with and protect). isolated. Is this the case with its of paramount importance to us at Different countries had their representation in the UN? present. All of this will help us to own reasons for abstaining. Now, – Russia is still a member of gain support for the resolution of all these countries are openly ex- the United Nations, so its future in our domestic financial, economic pressing their sympathies for us, so it depends on how adequately it be- and security problems, that we are I think that on this basis of protec- haves. Its leadership understands hoping for. Of course, we would tion of international law as a result that the UN statutory documents not like to have the present rela- of this aggression we are consoli- have been designed in such a way tions with Russia. And as we ap- dating the entire world not only that it is impossible to exclude a peal to it every day, we tell all around ourselves, but also around permanent member of the Security Russians, with whom we live as the values that were so flagrantly Council from either this entity or neighbours: Come to your senses! trampled on by Russia. This per- the UN as a whole. Everything is This is what we begin and end tains to Latin America and Asia… tied in such a way, that holders of with in any of our speeches in the Yes, these countries have certain the veto power can block many Security Council or the General nuances related to their own his- things. However, the feeling of not Assembly. № 16 (82) December 2014|the ukrainian week|49 Anti-Crisis Communication

Author: Pavlo Gudimov, musician and gallery curator

oethe-Institut has recently invited me to a rently in a kind of stupor after a complete rejection cultural conference in Germany, which fo- of private initiatives, but the time has finally come cused on the construction of a cultural seg- for interaction. And it is this rapprochement, if only Gment in the former depressed coal-mining on the level of communication, that is the main task city of Ruhr. I thought it was similar to Ukraine in and trend in Ukrainian culture for 2015. We all have the way its obsolete industry-oriented economy and to gradually realize in what mess we are. Inactivity old lifestyle was dying out, giving way to the new simply cannot be allowed, because it is the inactiv- one. The renewal turned out to be an easy process in ity of the past years that has led to incivility, which Germany: the state provides huge support to vari- in turn, has caused the current political situation. ous cultural initiatives through reforms. One aspect By the way, communication is ongoing on all levels. of this is the transformation of former workshops I, personally, am constantly invited to the Ministry into museums. For Ukraine, cultural reform is one of Culture, to talk on various issues, about how we of the most urgent issues. Without it, there will sim- can be helpful to one another, and that’s just great. ply be no way out of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector is undergoing a This path has many risks. One is to draw yet an- natural cleansing – we can see who is all talk, and other utopia on paper that will be full of officials who is actually doing something. After all, there is and budget embezzlement. The most important also a great demand for Ukrainian culture in step, however, is to bring private cultural initiatives Ukraine itself. For instance, the Book Forum in Lviv and the state to a point sold a record-breaking where they intersect. amount of books this Private institutions are It is necessary to use year compared to the often more important culture to cure our heads. previous ones. than the state ones to- I’m sure that contacts day, so they must be Only after that should the will intensify and the supported. It is not nec- economy be remedied with weight of culture will essarily standard mone- grow regardless of the tary or financial support a sound mind difficult economic situa- from the budget. It could tion, because as vast re- be a tax relief or promotion of the national cul- search and historic experience has confidently tural product through state channels, regard- shown, crises increase the significance of cul- less of who finances or initiates it – state or pri- ture and artwork. Now is not the best time for vate institutions. business, but it is the best time for culture. One It is very important to understand that culture is does not have to be a prophet to foresee that the not only about art, but also education, social insti- state will hardly finance culture next year. But I am tutions and initiatives, intellectual pastimes, and so convinced that patrons and initiators of various cul- on. Finally, we have to come to understand that the tural initiatives understand very well, that it is in national cultural product and its progress is one of such difficult times, that money, effort and re- the country’s main strategic tasks. This product in- sources have to be invested in culture. They said cludes both mass and elite culture in proportions that when Churchill was advised to cut the budget that will ensure the most effective presentation and for culture, he responded: “Then what are we fight- presence of Ukraine in the world. In the modern ing for?” It is impossible to constantly lament that universe, a state does not need to be engaged in cul- we are penniless, so there is neither time nor oppor- ture on its own, but it must provide as much support tunity for culture in this vicious circle. On the con- as possible to those who are. trary, it is necessary to use culture to cure our The current situation is that the private sector heads, even if it means being hungry. Only after that knows how and why the state and the private sector should the economy be remedied with a sound have to draw closer, but the state doesn’t. It is cur- mind. 50|the ukrainian week|№ 16 (82) December 2014 Anti-Crisis Communication