Destroy the – GRAMS Lab – UMich 2014 Notes

Questions?

Caitlin Walrath ([email protected]) Vivienne Pismarov ([email protected]) Erin Rawls ([email protected]) Jacob Goldschlag ([email protected]) Jeremy Hoffen ([email protected]) ***Biodiversity Good / Bad*** Impact Defense Squo Solves No impact to biodiversity – status quo solves PR Web, 10 - leader in online news distribution and online publicity that allows organizations of all sizes to distribute their news on the Internet (“Latin America and Caribbean are 'Biodiversity Superpower', says UNDP Report”, 12-2-10, http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/12/prweb8016532.htm)//KG The policies recommended in our report have the potential to transform traditional models of development—raising the quality of life of millions by preserving and restoring our biodiversity and eco-system services.” The report recommends that governments provide incentives, such as tax breaks, to direct public and private investments while stepping up efforts to conserve ecosystems. It also recommends raising awareness among policymakers, consumers and the rural poor, and investing to be at the forefront of biodiversity and ecosystems services-based technologies, products and markets. Countries can increase economic benefits by investing and restoring key biodiversity-related sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, water-related services, protected areas, and tourism, which are crucial for the region’s economy, according to the report. Self-Correcting

Fluctuations in temperature and biodiversity are natural – they correct themselves Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold Today, world is under threat from overfishing and pollution; naive fish-farming practices have led to dramatic loss in populations. In turn there are effects on the which are crucial in the of all these creatures. It is a curious replay of some of the changes that dominated the land and sea at the end of the Paleocene and set the scene for another 20 million years of high temperatures on our planet. Between 35 and 55 million years ago, Earth saw the peak in diversity of very many animal and plant groups on the land and in the sea. They were relatively tranquil times when the planet was largely at peace with itself, content with the steady rhythms of oscillating temperature, sea level and other environmental changes.¶ Temperatures had been rising steadily since the dinosaur extinction event 20 million years before and flora and fauna flourished to reach a peak in species number. concentration in the atmosphere was much higher than today, and without polar ice the sea level as well. Every few tens of thousands of years the river estuaries leading into the North Sea would flood to lay more sediment: the river Thames deposited London Clay from the west, the Seine left deposits from the south around Paris, while the Rhine formed rich sediments in Westphalia. These three ‘rivers’ were not the half- kilometre-wide trickles we know now. Man-made embankments give a deceptive idea of the extent of natural floodplains.¶ The rivers were vast expanses of floodplain, up to hundreds of kilometres across, comprising habitats that ranged from waterlogged marsh to quite shallow water and streaming torrents. The proportion of salt water and fresh water varied according to the different environmental pictures. One of the best permanent exposures of one kind of the resulting sediments, London Clay, is on the northern shore of the Isle of Sheppey, in Kent. On the beach at low tide you can find the fossilised remains of sharks’ teeth, tropical mangrove plants and tropical rainforest lianas.¶ The sea level started to rise and fall through these Eocene times go million years ago, and the oscillations were the first signs of a change ¶ away from the smooth environmental stability since the beginning of the Tertiary. Temperature stopped rising continuously and also began to alternate between highs and lows, rising to a maximum in Europe about 40 million years ago. The low ground between London, Paris and Bonn was at its hottest and tropical rainforest covered much of southern England, Germany and France. As the sea level rose the land bridge separating the London—Paris basin from the Rhine basin became covered with water. Then the sea level fell for another few hundred thousand years to make firm land connections. The land bridge between the British islands and the European mainland rose and fell above these waves. The phenomenon formed cycles that were repeated several times through the 10 million years of tropical heat. Then the climatic oscillations show that it slowly began to get colder.¶ These ideas of climate change in the Eocene of north-west Europe were confirmed in the 1980s by the geological exploration funded by the North Sea oil industry. Thousands of boreholes cored from shallow-water rigs through the clay offshore show cyclical changes in the diversity and concentration of many different kinds of biology. Mollusc and brachiopod shells varied, plankton gave reliable correlations to the same changes, as did pollen from the plants on nearby landmasses. The times of smoothly increasing temperatures were over. At the end of the Eocene, 35- million years ago, cycles of steady global cooling began to show up in the monitoring of climate change. Biodiversity Increasing

Ocean biodiversity is getting better Panetta, 13 – former US secretary of state (Leon, “Panetta: Don't take oceans for granted,” http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/17/opinion/panetta-oceans/index.html)//vivienne Our oceans are a tremendous economic engine, providing jobs for millions of Americans, directly and indirectly, and a source of food and recreation for countless more. Yet, for much of U.S. history, the health of America's oceans has been taken for granted, assuming its bounty was limitless and capacity to absorb waste without end. This is far from the truth. The situation the commission found in 2001 was grim. Many of our nation's commercial fisheries were being depleted and fishing families and communities were hurting. More than 60% of our coastal rivers and bays were degraded by nutrient runoff from farmland, cities and suburbs. Government policies and practices, a patchwork of inadequate laws and regulations at various levels, in many cases made matters worse. Our nation needed a wake-up call. The situation, on many fronts, is dramatically different today because of a combination of leadership initiatives from the White House and old-fashioned bipartisan cooperation on Capitol Hill. Perhaps the most dramatic example can be seen in the effort to end overfishing in U.S. waters. In 2005, President George W. Bush worked with congressional leaders to strengthen America's primary fisheries management law, the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. This included establishment of science-based catch limits to guide decisions in rebuilding depleted species. These reforms enacted by Congress are paying off. In fact, an important milestone was reached last June when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced it had established annual, science-based catch limits for all U.S. ocean fish populations. We now have some of the best managed fisheries in the world. Progress also is evident in improved overall ocean governance and better safeguards for ecologically sensitive marine areas. In 2010, President Barack Obama issued a historic executive order establishing a national ocean policy directing federal agencies to coordinate efforts to protect and restore the health of marine ecosystems. President George W. Bush set aside new U.S. marine sanctuary areas from 2006 through 2009. Today, the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, one of several marine monuments created by the Bush administration, provides protection for some of the most biologically diverse waters in the Pacific. Marine Resiliency

Diversity and resilience refute an all out collapse of marine biodiversity JCU 11 – (“Climate will damage reefs at different rates”, July 22, James Cook University, http://www-public.jcu.edu.au/news/JCU_083861)//JFHH Climate change and acidifying ocean water are likely to have a highly variable impact on the world’s coral reefs in space, time and diversity, international coral scientists cautioned today. The picture that is emerging from studies of past coral extinctions and present impacts on today’s reef systems is complex and subtle and will demand much more sophisticated management to preserve reefs intact, the team of scientists reports in a paper in the international journal Science. “New research confirms that coral reefs… are indeed threatened by climate change, but that some current projections of global-scale collapse of reefs within the next few decades probably overestimate the rapidity and uniformity of the decline ,” the researchers say. “A considered view of all the most recent evidence suggests that some coral reef systems will decline more rapidly – especially those subject to other human pressures such as overfishing – while others may change in composition, but manage to persist for longer ,” says lead author Professor John Pandolfi of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and the University of Queensland. The paper, “Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ” by John M. Pandolfi, Sean R. Connolly, Dustin J. Marshall and Anne L. Cohen appears in the latest issue of the journal Science. “Coral reefs occupy a small part of the world’s oceans, yet harbour a hugely disproportionate amount of its biodiversity,” the researchers say. “More than 450 million people from 109 countries live close to coral reefs, which provide important sources of ecosystem goods and services for these communities. “But reefs have suffered degradation from human over-exploitation and pollution over centuries to millennia , degradation that has accelerated in the last 50 years. Global warming and ocean acidification are now compounding these threats.” However reefs are naturally highly diverse and resilient , and are likely to respond to the changed conditions in different ways and at varying rates. Past extinction crises in coral reef ecosystems appear to coincide with episodes of rapid global warming and ocean acidification, they say. This has led some to predict rapid, dramatic, global-scale losses of coral reefs. “Widespread degradation of reefs is already underway. However, rates of future decline will be highly variable, because coral reefs are naturally highly diverse with some species able to cope with change more than others ,” says Professor Sean Connolly of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and James Cook University, another of the study’s authors. “Moreover, changes in ocean and climate conditions will be different in different regions, and the partnership between corals and their symbiotic algae has variable capacity to adapt to changing conditions.” The researchers highlighted some critical knowledge gaps, including effects of climate change on interactions between species, and the potential rates of adaptation of reef species to warmer and more acidic conditions. “Our ability to continue to improve our projections of climate change effects on coral reefs depends especially on advances in our understanding of these areas,” Professor Connolly says. “We think it would be best if the world prepares itself for a range of possible impacts and responses on reefs, and manages them accordingly, if we are to give our corals their best possible chance of survival through what we know from geological history is bound to be a very stressful era of environmental change.” The team concludes: “The best and most achievable thing we can do for coral reefs currently to deal with climate change is to seek to manage them well. “However, slowing rates of climate change, and reducing the strong selection imposed by human impacts such as fishing and coastal development will remain critical to the long-term persistence of coral reef ecosystems.” Alt Cause

Alt cause – global warming is the greatest cause of biodiversity loss Butler, Australian eco-socialist, 13 [Simon, Climate & Capitalism, “Oceans on the brink of ecological collapse”, October 14, 2013, http://climateandcapitalism.com/2013/10/14/oceans-brink-ecological-collapse/, ML] Marine scientists say the health of the oceans is in crisis. A ‘deadly trio’ of emission impacts may have already initiated a mass extinction event, a mass die-off of species and catastrophic loss of biodiversity. In late September, many mainstream media outlets gave substantial coverage to the UN’s new report on the climate change crisis, which said the Earth’s climate is warming faster than at any point in the past 65 million years and that human activity is the cause. It was disappointing, though not surprising, that news reports dried up after only a few days. But another major scientific study, released a week later and including even graver warnings of a global environmental catastrophe, was mostly ignored altogether. The marine scientists that released the State of the Ocean 2013 report on October 3 gave the starkest of possible warnings about the impact of carbon pollution on the oceans: “We are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change, and exposing organisms to intolerable evolutionary pressure. The next mass extinction event may have already begun. Developed, industrialised human society is living above the carrying capacity of the Earth, and the implications for the ocean, and thus for all humans, are huge.” Report co-author, Professor Alex Rogers of SomervilleCollege, Oxford, said on October 3: “The health of the ocean is spiralling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought. We are seeing greater change, happening faster, and the effects are more imminent than previously anticipated. The situation should be of the gravest concern to everyone since everyone will be affected by changes in the ability of the ocean to support life on Earth.” The ocean is by far the Earth’s largest and has absorbed most of the excess carbon pollution put into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. The State of the Ocean 2013 report warned that this is making decisive changes to the ocean itself, causing a “deadly trio of impacts” – acidification, ocean warming and deoxygenation (a fall in ocean oxygen levels). The report said: “Most, if not all, of the Earth’s five past mass extinction events have involved at least one of these three main symptoms of global carbon perturbations [or disruptions], all of which are present in the ocean today.” Fossil records indicate five mass extinction events have taken place in the Earth’s history. The biggest of these – the end Permian mass extinction – wiped out as much as 95% of marine life about 250 million years ago. Another, far better known mass extinction event wiped out the dinosaurs about 66 million years ago and is thought to have been caused by a huge meteor strike. A further big species extinction took place 55 million years ago. Known as the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), it was a period of rapid global warming associated with a huge release of greenhouse gases. “Today’s rate of carbon release,” said the State of the Ocean 2013, “is at least 10 times faster than that which preceded the [PETM].”[1] Ocean acidification is a sign that the increase in CO2 is surpassing the ocean’s capacity to absorb it. The more acid the ocean becomes, the bigger threat it poses to marine life – especially sea creatures that form their skeletons or shells from calcium carbonate such as crustaceans, molluscs, corals and plankton. The report predicts “extremely serious consequences for ocean life” if the release of CO2 does not fall, including “the extinction of some species and decline in biodiversity overall.” Acidification is taking place fastest at higher latitudes, but overall the report says “geological records indicate that the current acidification is unparalleled in at least the last 300 million years”. Ocean warming is the second element in the deadly trio. Average ocean temperatures have risen by 0.6°C in the past 100 years. As the ocean gets warmer still, it will help trigger critical climate tipping points that will warm the entire planet even faster, hurtling it far beyond the climate in which today’s life has evolved. Ocean warming will accelerate the death spiral of polar sea ice and risks the “increased venting of the greenhouse gas from the Arctic seabed”, the report says. Ongoing ocean warming will also wreak havoc on marine life. The report projects the “loss of 60% of present biodiversity of exploited marine life and invertebrates, including numerous local extinctions.” Each decade, fish are expected to migrate between 30 kilometres to 130 kilometres towards the poles, and live 3.5 metres deeper underwater, leading to a 40% fall in fish catch potential in tropical regions. The report says: “All these changes will have massive economic and food security consequences, not least for the fishing industry and those who depend on it.” The combined effects of acidification and ocean warming will also seal the fate of the world’s coral reefs, leading to their “terminal and rapid decline” by 2050. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef and Caribbean Sea reefs will likely “shift from coral domination to algal domination.” The report says the global target to limit the average temperature rise to 2°C, which was adopted at the Copenhagen UN climate conference in 2009, “is not sufficient for coral reefs to survive. Lower targets should be urgently pursued.” Deoxygenation – the third component of the deadly trio – is related to ocean warming and to high levels of nutrient run-off into the ocean from sewerage and agriculture. The report says overall ocean oxygen levels, which have declined consistently for the past five decades, could fall by 1% to 7% by 2100. But this figure does not indicate the big rise in the number of low oxygen “dead zones,” which has doubled every decade since the 1960s. Whereas acidification most impacts upon smaller marine life, deoxygenation hits larger animals, such as Marlin and Tuna, hardest. The report cautions that the combined impact of this deadly trio will “have cascading consequences for marine biology, including altered food webs dynamics and the expansion of pathogens [causing disease].” It also warns that it adds to other big problems affecting the ocean, such as chemical pollution and overfishing (up to 70% of the world’s fish stock is overfished). “We may already have entered into an extinction period and not yet realised it. What is certain is that the current carbon perturbations will have huge implications for humans, and may well be the most important challenge faced since the hominids evolved. The urgent need to reduce the pressure of all ocean stressors, especially CO2 emissions, is well signposted.”

Temperature linked to biodiversity hotspots and species will adapt Dalhousie University ’10 (Science Daily, “Marine biodiversity strongly linked to ocean temperature,” July 29, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100728131707.htm) //ER In an unprecedented effort that will be published online on the 28th of July by the international journal Nature, a team of scientists mapped and analyzed global biodiversity patterns for over 11,000 marine species ranging from tiny zooplankton to sharks and . The researchers found striking similarities among the distribution patterns, with temperature strongly linked to biodiversity for all thirteen groups studied. These results imply that future changes in ocean temperature, such as those due to climate change, may greatly affect the distribution of life in the sea. The scientists also found a high overlap between areas of high human impact and hotspots of marine diversity. Much research has been conducted on diversity patterns on land, but our knowledge of the distribution of marine life has been more limited. This has changed through the decade-long efforts of the Census of Marine Life, upon which the current paper builds. The authors synthesized global diversity patterns for major species groups including corals, fishes, whales, seals, sharks, mangroves, seagrasses, and zooplankton. In the process, the global diversity of all coastal fish species has been mapped for the first time. The researchers were interested in whether there are consistent "biodiversity hotspots" -- areas of especially high numbers of species for many different types of marine organisms simultaneously. They found that the distribution of marine life showed two fundamental patterns: coastal species such as corals and coastal fishes tended to peak in diversity around Southeast Asia, whereas open-ocean creatures such as tunas and whales showed much broader hotspots across the mid-latitude oceans. The scientists also tested whether these global patterns could be consistently explained by one or more environmental factors. Temperature was the only factor found to be linked with the distribution of all species groups, with the availability of habitat also playing a role. Says lead author Derek Tittensor of Dalhousie University, "it was striking how consistently temperature was linked with marine diversity. This relationship suggests that ocean warming, such as that due to climate change, may rearrange the distribution of oceanic life." Co-author Walter Jetz of Yale University notes "while we are increasingly aware of global gradients in diversity and their associated environmental factors, our knowledge of patterns in the ocean has lagged behind that of patterns on land. Our study attempts to help overcome this disparity." Biodiversity Bad Loss Good

Comprehensive science proves that loss is good – allows for ecological niches to be filled with more competitive species – even if it isn’t, the aff doesn’t address the fact that mass extinction occurs in combination of already occurred evolution avalanches, means their impact is inevitable Newman and Roberts ’95 - * a British physicist and Paul Dirac Professor of Physics at the University of Michigan, as well as an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute. He is known for his fundamental contributions to the fields of complex networks and complex systems, for which he was awarded the 2014 Lagrange Prize, ** (*M. E. J. , **B. W.,“Mass extinction, evolution and external influences”, Proceedings: Biological Sciences, Vol. 260, No. 1357 (Apr. 22, 1995), pp. 31-37, JSTOR) //CW The form of the power-law distribution is one of the most robust predictions of our model. We have run the 500 (a) 400 N 300 .~200 100 II 3000 r (b) .a 2000 *< 1000 time, t Figure 7. (a) An example of the 'precursor' effect, and (b) an example of the 'aftershocks', described in ? 3. model with a variety of different types of noise, with different numbers of neighbours K, and with several variations in the precise dynamics of the model, all without changing the value of the exponent ac in (1). Thus it is not necessary to know exactly what external effects are responsible for the mass extinctions, or their distribution over time, as they make no difference to this particular prediction. This is an important observation since it should, in theory, be possible to check this prediction against paleontological data, for example the fossil data of Sepkoski (1993) or William- son (1981). Another important form of behaviour seen in our model is the generation of smaller extinctions that accompany the largest ones. These fall into two classes, which we describe as follows. 1. Precursors are sets of small extinctions which precede a large extinction. Such precursor extinctions are to be seen all over the data from our simulations. Figure 7a shows a set of precursor extinctions drawn from the data shown in figure 4. The explanation of this effect is as follows. Large extinctions are produced when a large portion of the population becomes less fit than the average following one or more large coevolu- tionary avalanches. After such an avalanche, the next large environmental stress placed on the system (if there is one before the species involved manage to evolve to a fitter state) will decimate the population. However, there may be a considerable interval of time before such a large stress occurs, and in the meantime there may be smaller stresses which, because of the general unfitness of the population, tend to exact more of a toll on the ecosystem than one would normally observe. It is this exaggeration of the effiect of small environmental changes in the interval following a large avalanche but preceding the next large noise event that we see in our data as precursor extinctions. It is interesting to note that precursor extinctions are also seen in the fossil record. The mass extinction which occurred at the K-T boundary 65 million years (Ma) ago was preceded by about 3 Ma during which many species on the planet were already dying out (Keller 1989). The K-T boundary extinction is thought to have been caused by the impact of a large comet or meteor at Chicxulub on the Yucatain Peninsula, and this event corresponds to the 'large noise event' in our theory. However, a comet cannot explain why species were dying out for 3 Ma before the impact, and it has been suggested (for instance, by Kauffman 1993) that these precursor extinctions might be a result of smaller environmental stresses on a population which had become unfit for some other reason. This same unfitness may also partly explain why the population of the planet was so severely reduced by the Chicxulub meteor. It is interesting therefore to observe exactly the same effect appearing in our model, with the unfitness here being caused by large coevolutionary avalanches.2. We give the name aftershocks to the larger than normal extinctions that arise in the wake of a significant mass extinction . The mechanism here is that a large extinction wipes out a significant number of species, leaving empty many ecological niches. These niches are soon filled by new species. However, these species may not be very well adapted to survive new environmental stresses, since they have not evolved for long enough to feel the selection pressure of those stresses. Thus many of them will quickly be made extinct by quite small noise events which normally would have little effect on a well-adapted population. Only with the passage of time can the less fit species be removed from the population and the general fitness increase to normal levels again. Thus we expect to see a series of moderately sized extinction events appearing in the immediate wake of a large event, dying away in size until we return to the normal spectrum of small extinctions. Figure 7 b shows just such a set of aftershocks, also drawn from the data shown in figure 4. An effect similar to the aftershocks seen in these simulations appears to be present in the fossil record. For example, during the well-known Cambrian ex- plosion of 570 Ma ago, a large number of species arose very quickly in all sorts of different ecological niches. Most of these disappeared rather quickly, possibly because they were not well able to cope with small changes in their environment. Thus extinction, as well as speciation, appears to have been at a maximum during this period. It is interesting to see this effect duplicated in our simulations. Although we have experimented with a large variety of different types of noise to mimic different distri- butions of external influences, and found essentially the same predictions for the parameters of the system for all of them, there is one important respect in which all of these noise distributions were the same: they were all essentially similar at all points in time. It has been suggested (Raup & Sepkoski 1984; Sepkoski 1990) that there could be some periodicity in the largest of the mass extinctions seen in the Earth's fossil record, caused perhaps by the periodic recurrence of some astronomic catastrophe such as a meteor impact. We have performed simulations of our model which mimic this effect by introducing periodic variation in the strength of the noise function. The resulting extinctions show clear peaks at regular intervals, some more pronounced than others, in a fashion qualitatively similar to the peaks seen at 26 Ma intervals in the fossil data. This does not of course prove that there is an external cause for any periodicity that may be present in the fossil extinction data; it merely demonstrates that, within our model at least, such external causes can produce periodicity. 4. CONCLUSIONS We consider a mechanism whereby extinctions might arise as the result of the coincidence of coevolutionary avalanches giving rise to low general fitness of species in an ecosystem, and environmental stresses which tend to make extinct the least fit species. We have given a simple mathematical model that mimics this behaviour and makes several predictions about the resulting distribution of extinctions. In particular, the extinctions appear to have a power-law distribution with an exponent independent of the precise form of the external stresses. This prediction should be testable against paleontological data.

Environmental catastrophes increase diversity and species resiliency Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold We know so little about their inter-relationships that the view from the rowing boat remains a fairy story. A popular view is that all this fighting, all this competition between individuals and species, is the motor of evolution. That is a myth from Victoriana, placed under the Darwinian banner of ‘survival of the fittest’. It’s an old-fashioned concept that should be banished to the annals of what is wrong about biology. Now, we know that the complex relationship between the organisms and the environment is also important. Evolution is less to do with winning battles between species and individuals, more to do with being able to live well together in the same environment. It is not necessarily the strongest that succeeds, but the most adaptable to new environments that might develop suddenly and unexpectedly. In the tranquil times of the Jurassic and Cretaceous there were very few and undramatic environmental changes. Temperature and C02 concentrations steadily increased well above today’s values. The vicious battles between individuals and groups of Mesozoic monsters did not encourage major evolutionary changes. New species took over from earlier ones, a few new Families originated when there was a major altercation in battle with other animals or with any of the rare environmental changes. A few species and even genera became extinct. There was peace and relative quietness on Earth: evolution happened on a small scale, origins mainly at the species level, a few genera and fewer Families. Without big environmental changes there are few, if any, big evolutionary advances. Especially during the middle of the Jurassic there were only small and subtle changes in the marine and terrestrial environments. Without catastrophe, there were only small evolutionary changes during the time, usually at the level of the species and genus. Of the many important things to be learnt from these most tranquil of ages, there is one that most people do not expect. A popular view is that all the fighting, all the business of one thing eating up another, is the primary drive of evolution. They say it leads to the evolution of man and our seeing ourselves as the most powerful beings, sitting at the top of the evolutionary tree. This is not how nature works. The ammonites that ate most fish or resisted attacks from a soaring Pteranodon’s beak didn’t necessarily do any better than the more compromising species. So the bravest ammonites, charging off to battle in the front lines, perished in larger numbers than the more modest cowards who had found a safe niche. What did survive were those most able to succeed when the environment changed. So the creatures that come to dominate at any given moment do so, not by power of fighting but by chance. They have just happened to fit into new surroundings at that particular time better than the others. As the environment, or internal biology, or social behaviour, changed, so they just happened to be in the right place at the right time with the right kind of biology. Now, humans think we are at the peak, just as the dinosaurs were—through these Mesozoic times before the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction. But once again the environment is changing dramatically.

Even if some species die out, best evidence proves overall diversity rises with extinctions Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold So, what of the biological evidence for the K—’T meteorite falling at Chicxulub? How does that help put a date on when it happened and reconstruct something of the environment, its fauna and flora? There is a lot of evidence , and hundreds of scientists have been working at it and writing about it for the last couple of decades since the Alvarezes’ announcement about the Italian specimen. There is much more evidence than from the sudden dinosaur and ammonite extinctions: a panoply of biological change was set into action. There is even some familiarity with the succession that took place after the forest fire from the 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens in Washington State.¶ Both groups, dinosaurs and ammonites, had been showing signs of becoming less diverse for millions of years before the K—'T catastrophe. Figure 2.3 shows the number of their Families changing through time. Dinosaur diversity peaked three times, 200, i£o and 80 million years ago — three surges in diversity, three falls in Family numbers, three changes in environment. Changes in the marine realm were different, and the ammonites peaked according to that different tune. If any of these large groups of organisms reach a steady state in a stable environ¬ment, there is no need for evolutionary change. But through this same time interval chemical changes in the genes may be going on inside the cells, without expression outside.¶ If however there’s a mishap in the environment caused by anything from bad storms from tectonic activity to a meteorite impact then whole groups of different sizes become extinct in different places. This encourages other life, so the diversity curve rises , and dinosaurs recovered from the mishaps throughout the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The final catastrophe however was too great.

Catastrophic events like volcanoes, asteroids, climate change, and ocean acidification cause quick uptick in plant and ocean productivity – cross-field consensus backs up our argument Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold But suddenly, 65 million years ago, the dinosaurs were gone, both the carnivores and the herbivores. Although most plants were burnt to the ground by the fireballs that followed the impact, and although the air was dark and smoky, halting , their roots survived. The environment responded to the crisis and quickly recovered . No longer were the conifers and ferns harvested by these hungry foes, the soil was the richer for the forest debris and its microbiology boomed . The temperature of the atmosphere increased and it started to rain very hard in places where it had been drier. The changing environments encouraged the new flowering plants to evolve very quickly. ¶ With warm productive ecosystems on land, in the marine realm phytoplankton were major benefactors from these big environmental changes. Microscopic organisms in the sea, soil and air are especially able to adjust to changes very quickly. Small organisms have a much simpler structure and physiology, more vulnerable to most changes, yet more able to recover quickly. Without oxygen most species became extinct at the C—T and K—'T events, but those that didn’t quickly recovered and the empty space helped those species to evolve very quickly. There is a sharp delineation at the boundary where some became extinct and others originated in their place. The algae continued to photosynthesise, gathering energy from the sunlight and converting it into food and oxygen, eating up carbon dioxide in the process, clearly a very important stabilising role in the planet’s environment. They had done this through the Cretaceous and before, so we know a lot about the great diversity of the microscopic creatures.¶ Most small mammals also survived, hiding from the heat, being protected by their own sense of exploration. Within a few years some of the planet’s ecosystems were beginning to host a new range of animals, plants and bugs. Life began to assume a new normality. Most important of all, there was not a serious loss of the range of DNA, so many branches of the tree of life were able to continue and recover from the cull.¶ Out of adversity there is usually opportunity, and there was a really creative aspect of the catastrophe. Those organisms that did survive were able to find new opportunities to express structural adaptations. They were able to evolve through the mixing of genes or their mutations that had been taking place quietly through the millions of years before the cull and immediately afterwards. Because the environment had changed very little before the catastrophe there had been no opportuni¬ties for these molecular characteristics to express themselves. Evolution was going on inside the cells, in the genes’ DNA, and was not showing up in structural features like the colour of a mammal’s eyes or a flower’s petals. It was as though a strong genetic metal spring had been winding up, collecting energy for millions of years, and then at an instant was released. It caused quick increases in the species diversity of those animal and plant groups that had been inhibited in the wrong environment with its attendant dominant groups of competitors.¶ Something like this was recognised by Darwin himself, unaware as he was of genes and DNA. He called it ‘preadaptation’. Stephen Jay Gould, usually very good with words, called it ‘exaptation’. The process is at the centre of the adaptive evolutionary mechanisms, and works within the limits of the fitness landscapes, enabling biology to respond to environmental changes and evolve. Could it be that just as the environment appears to have changed in sudden bursts, separated by millions of years of quiet calm, so organisms respond with matching steps of structural change, either extinction or radiation, and stasis?¶ It appears that mass- extinction events happen at different times for different reasons and with very different severity and effect. We know that each event is different and none can be predicted; nevertheless they do have things in common. The events are triggered by environmental changes, possibly from fire and flood, so reducing light and oxygen to slow down photosynthesis and respiration on land and in the sea. The consequent culls usually lead to vacant ecological riches which are eventually occupied by new forms that have adapted to the fresh conditions .¶ Perception of this intimate relationship between environment and biology is much stronger than it was even a few years ago, caused by bringing together ideas on biodiversity from previously isolated subjects: geography, geology, biology, physics and chemistry to name but five. Evidence from these disciplines helps us see events that force environ- mental change, and which then become the principal causes of extinc¬tions. In turn they offer new opportunities for the newly stored biochemical and genetic developments to spring into action and create new species within the new ecosystems. Changes in these cellular processes are the eventual response to environmental attacks from things like asteroids, volcanic output, sea-level change, atmosphere change, and oceans with little dissolved oxygen.

Species loss solves extinction Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold If biological evolution really is a self-organised Earth-life system there are some very important consequences. One is that life on this planet continues despite internal and external setbacks, because it is the system that recovers at the expense of some of its former parts. For example, the end of the dinosaurs enabled mammals to diversify. Otherwise if the exponential rise were to reach infinity, there would not be space or food to sustain life. It would come to a stop. Extinctions are necessary to retain life on this planet !

Some species survive every extinction and die-offs create more room for other species to proliferate Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold The first days of sunshine after the K—'T clouds were celebrated by spontaneous biological reactions . The rapid return to photosynthetic activity caused a great wave of evolution within the many tiny phyto-plankton. Sea level was low and a new life returned in the form of new species of plankton, molluscs and fish, though we are very short of good details. A similar abundance of microfossils laid down in the oceans both before and after the boundary clay suggests that the balance of life there returned to normal quickly, though with very different biodiversity. Although the ammonites were completely extinct and although the species of other major groups were replaced, the world’s oceans show a smooth transition through the crisis from one fauna and flora to another. Nearly all these new species of plankton, molluscs and fish were of genera established during the Cretaceous. Evidence now shows that the environmental changes caused by the collision of the Yucatan meteorite were restricted to a very short length of geological time. We think that the whole catastrophe lasted only 10,000 years, with many details of the event preserved in the deposit of iridium layer which I described in chapter 2. When interplanetary dust and iridium and the toxic debris from the fires themselves settled over the Earth’s surface between the Cretaceous and the Tertiary, a layer of these particles sedimented where it could. It was the same layer that Walter and Luis Alvarez first made famous just a quarter of a century ago with their discovery. Elsewhere, the Earth became a much quieter place than at some of the other mass-extinction events, when the sea experienced long crises from other sources such as volcanic activity. At the Permian—Triassic (P—Tr) boundary, 24^ million years ago, prolonged lack of oxygen, high temperatures and acid rain caused much more havoc. As an event within a self-organised system, this Cretaceous—Tertiary (K—T) avalanche, 6^ million years ago, was small enough to allow the sand pile to return to its earlier shape surprisingly quickly. The sand pile of evolutionary biology continued to build from its own internal forces, despite the big kick from the Chicxulub asteroid. That is shown by The Fossil Record 2 and other data to be interference from outside the system, a kick to the sand pile. Other scientists such as Gould and Eldredge, who support the step-wise Punctuated Equilibria for the evolutionary process, see it as another advance up the slippery pole of evolution. Many organisms were well protected from the mayhem and show no signs of damage or change. They continued their former lives unaffected by the environmental change. On the other hand, when the ecosystem was more disturbed, with frequent upsets as a consequence of the catastrophe, then recuperation was slow, with altered ecosystems and new ecological relationships. These alterations became global and are the most prominent legacy of the dinosaur and ammonite extinctions. But other questions remain. How did the entire biosphere, all the biology and , respond to the extinctions of large organisms like ammonites and dinosaurs? The changes in fauna and flora had effects on the way living organisms were recovering from the traumas of finding themselves with new neighbours, let alone new surroundings. The effect was dramatic for some forms of life while it made little or no impression on others. Nevertheless, numerous new species and genera evolved just after the K—T boundary at the beginning of the Tertiary period. Paleontology textbooks have lots of drawings speculating from skeletal evidence on what the new furry mammals looked like. Their appearance may be uncertain, but there is evidence to show that there were lots of them, new species as well as growing populations of individuals. New Families of land invertebrates, freshwater fish and even lizards took over the free space left by the greedy dinosaurs. Marine fish and plankton diversified just as quickly at the species level, but there was no immediate change in the Family constituency or the individuals’ behaviour. Biodiversity Bad

Increased biodiversity causes instability – scientific consensus Naeem et al., 02 – Director of Science at Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Professor and Chair of Columbia University Department of Ecology (Shahid, “Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: synthesis and perspectives,” pg. 80)//vivienne The early view that permeated ecology until the 1960s was that diversity (or complexity) begets stability. This view was formalized and theorized by people such as Odum (1953), MacArthur (1955) and Elton (1958) in the 1950s. Odum (1953) and Elton (1958) observed that simple communities are more easily upset than rich ones, i.e. they are more subject to destructive population oscillations and invasions. MacArthur (1955) proposed, using a heuristic model that the more pathways there are for energy to reach a consumer, the less severe is the failure of any one pathway. These conclusions were based on either intuitive arguments or loose observations, but lacked a strong theoretical and experimental foundation. Probably because they represented the conventional wisdom (‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’) and the prevailing philosophical view of the ‘balance of nature’, they became almost universally accepted. This ‘conventional wisdom’ was seriously challenged in the early 1970s by theorists such as Levins (1970), Gardner and Ashby (1970), and May (1972, 1974), who borrowed the formalism of deterministic autonomous dynamical systems from Newtonian physics and showed that, in these model systems, the more complex the system, the less likely it is to be stable. Stability here was defined qualitatively by the fact that system returns to its equilibrium or steady state after a perturbation. This intuitive explanation for this destabilizing influence of complexity is that the more diversified and the more connected a system, the more numerous and the longer the pathways along which a perturbation can propagate within the system, leading to either its collapse or its explosion. This conclusion was further supported by analyses of one quantitative measure of stability, resilience (Table 7.1), in model food webs (Pimm and Lawton 1977; Pimm 1982). This theoretical work had a number of limitations. In particular, it was based on randomly constructed model communities. More realistic food webs incorporating thermodynamic constraints and observed patters of interaction strengths do not necessarily have the same properties (DeAngelis 1975; de Ruiter et al. 1990). Also, there have been few direct experimental tests of the theory, and many of the natural patterns that agree with theoretical predictions can be explained by more parsimonious hypotheses such as the trophic cascade model (Cohen and Newman 1985). Despite these limitations, the view that diversity and complexity beget instability, not stability, quickly became the new paradigm in the 1970s and 1980s because of the mathematical rigour of the theory. Recovery Scenario Rates of recovery of ecosystem stability increase with decreasing diversity Worm et al ‘6 (Boris Worm, Edward B. Barbier, Nicola Beaumont, J. Emmett Duffy, Carl Folke, Benjamin S. Halpern, Jeremy B. C. Jackson, Heike K. Lotze, Fiorenza Micheli, Stephen R. Palumbi, Enric Sala, Kimberly A. Selkoe, John J. Stachowicz, Reg Watson, Center for Ocean Solutions, “Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services,” November 2006, http://centerforoceansolutions.org/content/impacts-biodiversity-loss-ocean-ecosystem- services)//ER Human-dominated marine ecosystems are experiencing accelerating loss of populations and species, with largely unknown consequences. We analyzed local experiments, long-term regional time series, and global fisheries data to test how biodiversity loss affects marine ecosystem services across temporal and spatial scales. Overall, rates of resource collapse increased and recovery potential, stability, and water quality decreased exponentially with declining diversity. Restoration of biodiversity, in contrast, increased productivity fourfold and decreased variability by 21%, on average. We conclude that marine biodiversity loss is increasingly impairing the ocean's capacity to provide food, maintain water quality, and recover from perturbations. Yet available data suggest that at this point, these trends are still reversible. AT: Boutler Indicts

The data analysis method Boulter uses Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold Instead, our energies have taken us into the very different world of data analysis, the mathematics of complex systems and to the edge of chaos theory. Our approach is to standardise all the data into the same format, with separate Microsoft Excel columns for names, ages, location, ecosystem and other variables. To make sense of the incredible amounts of such data, we propose models against which to test those data. If we think biodiversity is changing in a particular way, we describe that way with a mathematical equation and see if the data can fit it. We test to discover if there are any broad trends showing up to conform to the model. To our great surprise the patterns that are emerging from our analysis of records of extinct plants and animals are clear and definite, and our scientific results confirm our right to be very worried about what is happening to life on our planet. We have found consistent patterns in these evolutionary changes, in groups of animals that are extinct, and in others that survive. The changes follow a simple model that can be expressed as a mathematical equation, and we use this to predict likely trends in evolutionary change. It’s rather like how weather forecasters accumulate data from earlier records of location, temperature, wind and pressure. The pat¬terns are then used to calculate how the values will go forwards in time, and separate statistical methods give a reasonable amount of certainty. We have been doing something very similar working from our evolutionary patterns, and it’s now very clear that there is sudden and unexpected interference in the patterns: the environmental changes caused by man.

The mathematical theory of self-organization proves Boulter’s arg – it’s widely accepted Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold Some of the first ideas about these systems were published in 1987 by Per Bak, a physicist, through the inspiration of a group of scientists in New Mexico. They were announced in the prestigious journal Physical Review Letters and quickly became one of the most quoted articles in mainstream physics. But as was the way then with most science, Bak’s ideas were heard only within his own specialism.¶ Bak introduces the idea of self-organisation with a graphic experiment. Fill your hand with sand, all grains the same size and composition. Let it flow from a constant aperture between your thumb and two forefingers. The steady stream of sand falls to form a cone. Everything is equal, the aperture, the size of the grains, weight, surface features, the rate of flow. Through time the cone gets bigger and heavier, each grain becoming part of the increasingly complex system. The cone will adjust to the increase in the number of grains, and react from within. Sometimes a single grain will be holding up a pile of others. Elsewhere, smoother juxtapositions of the grains may create a firmer structure. Inevitably, an avalanche of grains will occur, and it is unpredictable how long it may last, and how powerful it may be.¶ Such avalanches show a clear mathematical identity and a pattern of change through time that can be plotted as a straight line with a characteristic slope (see figure 3.2). This is called a power law: variables that plot as a straight line from any self-organised system. It is because large changes are rare, small ones are common, and the variation between the extremes is smooth, just as we will see develops on planet Earth . AT: Data

Ancient empirical evidence is useless – data is skewed Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold Without clear evidence, there is a suspicion from the foggy images of the whole Earth system that nature changes very often. These changes can take anything from a matter of seconds to millions of years to occur, at different oscillations and cycles. In Lyme Regis, 200 million years ago, the evidence points to many different cycles of change for many different environmental factors. Although the ecological changes were on a small scale throughout the Jurassic, there were enough to stimulate small evolutionary changes. Biodiversity is a complex system and was growing even then, with off-peak rhythms of change. The continents were drifting, food cycles were changed by slight shifts in climate and ecology, C02 concentration and temperatures were rising. But it was so long ago that the evidence is distorted, fragmented or often destroyed by erosion. It’s difficult and often impossible to understand the timescales of the changes. When you are suddenly dumped into the middle of changing systems like these it’s hard to get your bearings. For example, our understanding of long-term changes in the weather depends on whether we have data about the changes over a broad sweep of space and time. No wonder it’s difficult to say what life was like 200 million years ago on the basis of describing the Jurassic rocks at Lyme Bay, especially since all the changes appear to have been relatively modest. But some ideas about how to make sense of complex systems came 1^0 years ago from a surprising source: a retired railway engineer.

Conclusive evidence from large data sets prove biodiversity explodes after extinction events Boulter 2 - professor of paleobiology at the Natural History Museum and the University of East London (Michael, “Extinction : evolution and the end of man,” Columbia University Press, 2002)//JGold **note – the Palocene is the period directly following the mass extinction event at the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 million years ago (K-Pg Boundary) that killed the dinosaurs :-( Huge databases have been created from this work on pollen and spores, and my research group is using some of them to test our ideas of evolutionary biology. From these data we looked at the changes in the fossil pollen through the last million years, and to check their validity we set the patterns emerging against those from very different disciplines such as sedimentology and climatology. The pollen databases confirm the rise of deciduous trees and shrubs, especially broad-leaved trees such as oak and lime. These plants also diversified as species and genera 65 to 55 million years ago, during the Paleocene (see figure 1.2). The same interval saw the beginning of the great mixed conifer and broadleaf forests that began to cover the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In other parts of the world there is much slower diversification in early tropical rainforest, warm-temperate floras, and in the more temperate ecosystems in the south. All the evidence points to a global expansion of forests at the time, in the number both of species and of individual shrubs and trees in these vast terrestrial ecosystems. It was the time of the highest growth in biodiversity that the planet has ever experienced Biodiversity Good Ocean Biodiversity Decline Impact

Ocean decline will cause mass extinction absent action- CO2 emmisions, fisheries and chemical run-offs are creating deadzones Harrabin 13 (Roger Harrabin is BBC’s Environment analyst, Visiting Fellow at Green Templeton College, Oxford and an Associate Press Fellow at Wolfson College, Cambridge, “Health of oceans 'declining fast'” BBC, 10/3/13,http://www.bbc.com/news/science- environment-24369244)//BLOV A review from the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), warns that the oceans are facing multiple threats. They are being heated by climate change, turned slowly less alkaline by absorbing CO2, and suffering from overfishing and pollution. The report warns that dead zones formed by fertiliser run-off are a problem. It says conditions are ripe for the sort of mass extinction event that has afflicted the oceans in the past. It says: “We have been taking the ocean for granted. It has been shielding us from the worst effects of accelerating climate change by absorbing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. “Whilst terrestrial temperature increases may be experiencing a pause, the ocean continues to warm regardless. For the most part, however, the public and policymakers are failing to recognise - or choosing to ignore - the severity of the situation.” It says the cocktail of threats facing the ocean is more powerful than the individual problems themselves. Coral reefs, for instance, are suffering from the higher temperatures and the effects of acidification whilst also being weakened by bad fishing practices, pollution, siltation and toxic algal blooms. Atmospheric threshold IPSO, funded by charitable foundations, is publishing a set of five papers based on workshops in 2011 and 2012 in partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN’s) World Commission on Protected Areas. The reports call for world governments to halt CO2 increase at 450ppm . Any higher, they say, will cause massive acidification later in the century as the CO2 is absorbed into the sea. It urges much more focused fisheries management , and a priority list for tackling the key groups of chemicals that cause most harm. It wants the governments to negotiate a new agreement for the sustainable fishing in the high oceans to be policed by a new global high seas enforcement agency. The IUCN’s Prof Dan Laffoley said: "What these latest reports make absolutely clear is that deferring action will increase costs in the future and lead to even greater, perhaps irreversible, losses. "The UN climate report confirmed that the ocean is bearing the brunt of human-induced changes to our planet. These findings give us more cause for alarm – but also a roadmap for action. We must use it." 'Extinction risk' The co-coordinator, Prof Alex Rogers from Oxford University has been asked to advise the UN's own oceans assessment but he told BBC News he had led the IPSO initiative because : "It’s important to have something which is completely independent in any way from state influence and to say things which experts in the field felt was really needed to be said ." He said concern had grown over the past year thanks to papers signalling that past extinctions had involved warming seas, acidification and low oxygen levels. All are on the rise today. He agreed there was debate on whether fisheries are recovering by better management following examples in the US and Europe, but said it seemed clear that globally they were not. He also admitted a debate about whether overall climate change would increase the amount of fish produced in the sea. Melting sea ice would increase fisheries near the poles whilst stratification of warmer waters in the tropics would reduce mixing of nutrients and lead to lower production, he said. He said dead zones globally appeared to be increasing although this may reflect increased reporting. "On ocean acidification, we are seeing effects that no-one predicted like the inability of fish to detect their environments properly. It’s clear that it will affect many species. We really do have to get a grip on what’s going on in the oceans," he said. Invisible Threshold / Biodiversity Critical

Invisible threshold-- even if we dont know the species we must take every action to preserve them making probability the only allowable risk calculus Enric Sala and Nancy Knowlton (11/2006 (Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California "Global Marine Biodiversity Trends", Annual Review of Enviroment and Resources, 6/24/14 Many species may have disappeared unnoticed (73). Losses of species that have not been described are difficult to estimate, but many small species with localized dispersal and limited geographic ranges have already probably gone extinct. Statistical methods can be used to make estimates of loss rates, much as they have been used for tropical rainforests (74). Assuming that we have already lost 5% of coral reef area, and using an area- species richness power law, it has been estimated that ∼ 1% of coral reef species have already become extinct (69). Other unnoticed extinctions have undoubtedly occurred in habitats that are less known, such as in the deep sea. Seamounts, for example, harbor huge species richness and high levels of endemicity [from 30% to 50% of endemic invertebrates per seamount (75)]. Seamount biodiversity is threatened by large-scale commercial trawling, and repeated fishing of a single seamount could mean a large number of species extinctions. The diversity associated with deep-sea coral reefs is similarly threatened (76).

Several warrants why marine biodiversity is critical to protect- Enric Sala and Nancy Knowlton (11/2006 (Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California "Global Marine Biodiversity Trends", Annual Review of Enviroment and Resources, 6/24/14 Marine biodiversity provides most services we obtain from the sea, including food security, protection against coastal erosion, recycling of pollutants, climate regulation, and recreation. Biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem services from local to global scales. For example, more than half of the catch of the trawl fishery in the Mediterranean coast of Israel now consists of Lessepsian fishes (invaders from the Red Sea through the Suez canal), which have replaced the collapsing populations of native species (161) but with associated declines in productivity. In addition to the obvious declines in fisheries' productivity, there are many other indirect effects of human-related threats on ecosystem function, including flow of nutrients, resistance to perturbations, stability, and resilience. Genetic diversity can enhance resistance to disturbance . Hughes & Stachowicz (162) experimentally showed that increasing genotypic diversity in the sea grass Zostera marina enhances community resistance to disturbance by grazing geese. In particular, they found that the number of sea grass shoots remaining in experimental plots after grazing by geese increased with increasing genotypic diversity. However, increased genotypic diversity had no effect on resilience, that is, the rate of shoot recovery after the disturbance. Species depletions can change ecological processes that are vital to the persistence of marine communitie s. One example is the effect of biodiversity on invasion success. Elton (163) suggested that communities with greater species richness should be more resistant to invasion. Recent experimental work has shown that species richness can affect resistance to invasion and thus have significant effects on biodiversity at the community level at small spatial scales . Stachowicz and coauthors (164, 165) have shown that decreasing native species richness in experimental subtidal sessile invertebrate communities increases the survival and final abundance of invaders. Because the abundance of individual species had no effect on invasion success, they suggested that large native species richness reduces invasion success because space is most consistently and completely occupied when more species are present. However, the results of these experiments might be unrealistic because extinctions are generally nonrandom, whereas the studies manipulated species richness by using random subsets of species from a common species pool. Furthermore, although species richness appears to inhibit invasions at small spatial scales, ecosystems with high species richness tend to have more exotic species (166), suggesting important roles for other factors such as abundance of competitors and predators, productivity, and physical conditions. However, there appears to be a general pattern of enhancement of stability with an increase in species richness. Emmerson et al. (167) showed, using mesocosm experiments with soft bottom intertidal invertebrates, that effects of species richness on ecosystem function, in this case flux of nutrients (specifically ammonia, NH4-N), are less variable with increasing invertebrate species richness. Declines in species richness alone may thus not be the single most important factor in determining invasion success, and loss of functional biodiversity may be more important. In addition, the homogenization of marine biodiversity mentioned earlier generally means more instability at the community level and consequent boom and bust dynamics, which are not compatible with sustainable exploitation of biodiversity (51). The order in which species are lost can govern the ecosystem impacts of biodiversity loss . Modeling work suggests that loss of invertebrate species richness in marine soft sediments leads to a decline in the biogenic mixing depth (BMD), an indicator of bioturbation, which in turn is a primary determinant of species biomass and community structure (168). However, the pattern of extinction determined the rate of change of the BMD, the species richness at which the BMD first declined, and the variance in the change. For example, the models indicated that losing the large species first led to a faster decline in the BMD compared with random extinction. Loss of habitat diversity or community diversity may also have dramatic consequences . Mangroves and other coastal communities protect the near shore against erosion from storms and hurricanes. Loss of mangroves causes declines in fisheries' productivity (169) and amplifies the effects of storms and tsunamis (170). Most studies investigating the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function and services have manipulated species richness within trophic levels. However, the number of trophic levels, which is related to functional diversity, can be key in determining community-wide biodiversity. This was already apparent in Paine's (57, 171) classic experimental work in the Pacific northeast intertidal, where the presence of predatory starfishes caused an increase in diversity of major benthic sessile organisms. Recently, Duffy and collaborators (172) showed that, in a sea grass community, higher grazer diversity enhanced ecosystem function (secondary production, epiphyte grazing, and sea grass biomass) only with predators present.

***Oil Spills Good / Bad *** Impact Defense Generic Mechanisms exist to decrease the impact of oil spills – and big spills don’t have a large impact Aldhous et al ’10 (Peter Aldhous , Phil McKenna and Caitlin Stier, New Scientist Environment, 6-18-10, “Gulf leak: biggest spill may not be biggest disaster,” http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19016-gulf-leak-biggest-spill-may-not-be-biggest- disaster.html#.U8v3DfldVCM) //ER UPDATE, 11 June 2010 The latest US government estimate puts the amount of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon well at about 6.4 million litres per day – roughly double previous estimates. THE Deepwater Horizon blowout is the largest oil spill in US history, but its ecological impact need not be the worst. It all hinges on the amount and composition of the oil that reaches the Gulf of Mexico's most sensitive habitat: its coastal marshes. If they can be protected, the region could bounce back in just a few years. As New Scientist went to press, estimates of the volume of crude so far ejected into the waters of the Gulf ranged from 90 to 195 million litres - dwarfing the Exxon Valdez's 40-million-litre spill in 1989. But the aftermath of previous spills shows that it is not the volume that matters most. "Very large spills have had minimal impact and small spills have had a devastating impact," says Judy McDowell of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, one of the authors of a 2003 National Research Council report that reviewed lessons from previous incidents. Consider three vastly different spills (see timeline, right). In 1979, the Ixtoc I well off Mexico's Gulf coast spewed 530 million litres of oil into shallow waters - three times the worst current estimates for Deepwater Horizon. Five years later, "we had to look hard to see any lasting effects", says Arne Jarnelöv of the Institute for Futures Studies in Stockholm, Sweden, who led a UN team sent to monitor the area. The Exxon Valdez spilled far less, 40 million litres, yet Alaska's Prince William Sound is still recovering. And 700,000 litres spilled by the oil barge Florida at West Falmouth on Cape Cod is still affecting species 40 years on. Why such variation? It all comes down to the type of oil and the habitats involved. The light crude from Ixtoc I made landfall mostly on relatively lifeless sandy beaches, where it quickly degraded into a fairly harmless hard tar. Exxon Valdez's heavy crude immediately coated rocky inlets that were havens for seabirds and other marine life, and the frigid conditions meant it broke down slowly. West Falmouth suffered disproportionately because the refined fuel oil that spilled is especially toxic, and hit sensitive salt marshes. The impact of Deepwater Horizon will be difficult to predict because there never has been a sustained spill at such a depth. The good news is that the oil has to rise through 1500 metres of water, and is exposed to the elements for days or weeks before hitting the shore. The most toxic components - benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylenes - are likely to dissolve in the water column and become greatly diluted, or evaporate at the surface. One big uncertainty relates to the intervention, not the spill - in particular the unprecedented use of chemical dispersants at the leaking well head on the sea floor. The deep ocean plumes this helped create are a mix of dispersant, emulsified oil and water. How marine life will be affected is anyone's guess. What is certain is that the plumes are already overlapping with Lophelia corals that live at depths of 300 to 500 metres. Next month, the US Geological Survey plans to send robotic submersibles to three of its study sites that are close by. "These sites could be impacted quite severely," warns Cheryl Morrison, a conservation geneticist at the Leetown Science Center in Kearneysville, West Virginia. The spill could be disastrous for the endangered bluefin tuna - it coincided with the spawning season and there are fears that up to 20 per cent of this year's larvae may die. "We need all the biodiversity in any year," says Barbara Block of Stanford University's Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove, California. Among coastal habitats, marshes are by far the biggest worry. They are both a crucial wildlife habitat and an important buffer between New Orleans and the hurricane-prone Gulf. The marshes are already eroding at an alarming rate, as a consequence of engineering projects that have constrained the wandering Mississippi and carved out navigation channels. "These marshes are already hanging on by their fingernails," says Denise Reed, a geomorphologist at the University of New Orleans. Oil in the coastal estuaries and marshes would also pose the biggest threat to commercial fisheries. They serve as nurseries for both shrimp - which accounts for more than half of Gulf of Mexico fisheries by revenue - and the Gulf menhaden, a member of the herring family. Used for bait and processed into animal feed and fish oils, menhaden comprise more than 70 per cent of Gulf fisheries by weight. The dispersants that could be bad news for the deep sea may create an emulsion in the marshes that does not readily penetrate sediments, suggests Jacqueline Michel, president of Research Planning, a consultancy in Columbia, South Carolina, that is advising on the spill response. With care, she says, this can be removed without causing further damage. On the other hand, lab experiments by John Nyman of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge indicate that the combination of Louisiana crude and the main dispersant used on the current spill is more toxic to marsh-dwelling invertebrates than oil alone would be. Ultimately, the best hope of staving off the worst impacts of the spill is to keep the oil out of the coastal marshes. Plans to construct sand berms to bolster the protection by natural barrier islands may help, say research teams working in the marshes. They will have gaps to allow for tidal flows, so success may depend on the aggressive use of booms and skimmers in those gaps. "The best thing we can do is to stop the oil getting into these wetlands," says Reed.

Impact to oil spills overstated Hoyos ’10 (Carola, 5-12-10, Financial Times Global Economy, “IEA warns against US oil spill over-reaction,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a2646102-5db6-11df-b4fc- 00144feab49a.html#axzz383Hh90BO) //ER The International Energy Agency has warned US law makers against making rash decisions in the wake of BP’s oil spill off the coast of Louisiana . “A knee-jerk reaction by regulators, banning new offshore licensing altogether, as some are proposing, risks pushing companies to ever more precarious locations in search of hydrocarbons. The law of unintended consequences may apply,” the IEA, the rich countries’ energy watchdog, said in its monthly market report released on Wednesday. Further regulation would increase costs and therefore oil prices, it noted. “The catastrophic explosion at the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico has had a minimal impact on actual production in the region so far but there could be far-reaching implications. Operational safety and regulatory issues have raised the spectre of significantly higher development costs, a possible curbing of offshore leasing and slower growth in offshore production. Combined, these critical issues could lead to a strengthening of the long- term forward price curve,” the IEA said. Transocean’s Deepwater Horizon rig, drilling on behalf of BP, exploded on April 20 and sank two days later, killing 11 people and causing one of the largest recent oil spills in US waters. BP executives and those of other companies, such as Halliburton and Transocean, which were involved in the drilling, were grilled by US lawmakers this week. Lisa Murkowski, the ranking Republican on the energy committee and a senator from Alaska, the site of the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill, scolded the executives for their efforts to shift blame. “I would suggest to all three of you that we are all in this together because this incident will have an impact on the energy policy of our country,” she said. Yet, even as they blamed faulty equipment, lack of technical expertise and sloppy regulation for the spill, several senators from both parties reiterated their commitment to expand offshore drilling. While the oil spill is grabbing almost all the attention, a second, older discussion about how to regulate the industry is also about to have an impact on the industry. The IEA warned that regulation resulting from the rise and then collapse in oil prices in 2008 could cause more, rather than less, volatility in the markets. “Despite a lack of clear evidence that crude oil prices move in lock- step with either open interest or net non-commercial positions, wide-ranging curbs on market activity now look likely,” the IEA said. It added: “Meanwhile, physical players warn of the risks to investment if they have to divert a greater share of capital to meeting the higher costs of hedging. This is not to argue against oversight and regulation, merely to observe that moves aimed at avoiding market manipulation and price volatility, if hastily formulated, could reinforce volatility if they hamper investment and price discovery.” Also in its report, the IEA revised downward substantially its estimates for how much oil was used last year and its forecast for this year. The changes, which on average cut 190,000 barrels a day off previous forecasts, were prompted by new, higher oil price assumptions and lower demand figures from developing countries. Global oil demand is now thought to have been 84.8m b/d in 2009, a drop of 1.4 per cent from the year before. This year, the IEA expects oil demand to grow by 1.9 per cent to 86.4m b/d. Calculating demand, even retrospectively, can be difficult because data, especially from developing countries, are often unreliable, with more accurate figures sometimes only becoming available a year later. Russia proves no impact Russia spills oil in the arctic all the time – no impact Vijayaraghavan ’11 (Akhila, 12-22-11, “Russia Spills 5 Million Tons of Oil Every Year in the Arctic,” Triple Pundit, http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/12/russia-spills-5-million-tons-oil- every-year-arctic/) //ER Petroleum is probably one of the most precious commodities we have. It powers every aspect of human life, not just in terms of energy for transportation and heating but petrochemicals have spawned industries without which modern human life may well be impossible. One of the biggest risks with the extraction of crude is the risk of oil spills and their disastrous consequences, both to wildlife as well as human health. AP recently reported that Russia, one of the richest oil nations, spills as much as 5 million tons every year. This amounts to only 1 percent of its total production but according to AP, it is “equivalent to one Deepwater Horizon-scale leak about every two months.” Russia is responsible for 13 percent of the world’s total oil output, but it is battling a crumbling infrastructure as well as one of the harshest climates known to man. Komi is one of Russia’s largest and oldest oil provinces and in the town of Usinsk, 1500 kilometers (930 miles) northeast of Moscow, a spill occurred as recently as Saturday last week. Rusty pipes and old wells do not do enough to ensure that oil is properly extracted, and as it slowly seeps through it contaminates soil and makes it uninhabitable for birds, animals and plants. Rivers that flow into the Arctic Ocean are contaminated with half a million tons of oil every year, thereby upsetting one of the most delicate ecosystems in the world. As the oil continues to flow in drops and little gushes, it is difficult to accurately estimate the amount of oil that is actually wasted. However, both WWF and Greenpeace estimate that it is around 5 million tons. AP reports that, “Russian state-funded research shows that 10-15 percent of Russian oil leakage enters rivers; and a 2010 report commissioned by the Natural Resources Ministry that shows nearly 500,000 tons slips into northern Russian rivers every year and flows into the Arctic.” Most of these leaks go unreported and if they are less than 8 tons, they are classified as “incidents” and therefore carry no penalty under Russian law. Another contributing factor to the lack of proper estimates is the fact that these leaks occur in vast areas of the tundra which remain largely unpopulated. In spite of this, many companies are eyeing the Arctic as a potential source of oil and are willing to continue exploration and drilling operations. However, the Russian government acknowledges that they do not have the required technology and it will be years before they are able to invest in adequate technology to make drilling in this vulnerable area safe. Russia’s second largest oil company, Lukoil, is in charge of these oil fields in the region of Usinsk and they are unwilling to repair the pipelines since it costs too much money. According to Ivan Blokov, campaign director at Greenpeace Russia, “It (oil spills) is happening everywhere. It’s typical of any oil field in Russia. The system is old and it is not being replaced in time by any oil company in the country.” Squo Solves BP’s technology solves – and nukes can fix oil spill problems Flower ’10 (Merlin, “Use nukes to contain the oil spill,” 5-11-10, oil-price.net, http://www.oil- price.net/en/articles/use-nukes-to-contain-the-oil-spill.php) //ER BP has installed floating booms in the sea and along the coastline to check the oil spill using local fishermen in a program called Vessels of Opportunity. These booms are also used to catch the spills which are then subjected to burning. The plan is to remove the residue of the burn using net and simmers. The company has deployed more than 700,000 feet of the boom with another million feet available for use. Still, boom or sandbags do not work, albeit as a temporary reassurance, as winds damage the booms rendering them useless. BP has also given $25 million block grants to the states affected by the oil spill- Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida. The company says the funds were disbursed to implement the Contingency Plans (ACPs) to prevent the spill affecting 'sensitive areas' In addition, chemical dispersants were also used to check the spill. Thus 160,000 gallons of chemical dispersant called Corexit 9500 were sprayed on the spill and another 6,000 gallons of Corexit EC9527A were pumped directly on the source of the spill below. The dispersants are expected to break the oil droplets into billions of smaller droplets to hasten the degradation process. But concerns remain on the effect of the chemicals on aquatic life, in the short term or long term, as the exact mix used in the chemical is still a well-kept secret. Against all this, we had untested futuristic technology in the form of giant boxes, four stories high, weighing 100 tonnes, called cofferdams to be placed over the larger of the two leaking wellheads. The idea was to collect the gushing oil leaking from about a mile under the water's surface and channel it through a pipe to the surface to be collected by Transocean's Deepwater Enterprise drillship. The device had been used previously during hurricane Katrina, but then it was in shallow waters and different conditions altogether. Sure enough, it would be weeks before we know the success of this and none is wiser about the working condition of the dome under high deep sea pressure. Though the dome was successfully placed over the leak, it hit the first problem immediately: Gas hydrates, ice like crystal formed when natural gas and water mix under pressure, sealed the opening of the dome. Thus, the hydrates have plugged the large opening and have prevented oil being funnelled to the ship. So, the dome has been moved to the side of the well for the time being. Now the challenge is to find a ways to overcome the hydrates-either heating the cofferdams or adding methanol. Still at that water pressure -we are talking about pressure at 1,500m below the surface- the funnel would be difficult to maintain. BP is drilling two more relief wells in the area to provide an escape route for the pressurised oil. But that will take months. So what's the solution? Nukes, a simple proven method to stop oil leaks A leading Russian daily has come up with another option-nuke the spill. Though it sounds more like fiction and somewhat outlandish, the fact is that Soviet Russia had used controlled nuclear explosions to contain oil spills, on at least five different occasions. The science is to drill a hole near the leak, set off the explosion and then seal off the leak-used in the soviet for an oil spill in the desert. If it is rocky surface the explosion would shift the rock which then squeezes the funnel of the well. The first underground nuclear explosion was done in Urt-Bulak in 1966 to control burning gas wells. The success ratio is quite high with only one of them failing to prevent a spill in Kharkov region in 1972. There is an analogy between using nukes to stop the oil leak and using Chemotherapy on a cancer patient. Chemo nearly kills the patient in order to kill all cancerous cells. Yet it is the best known way to stop cancer. The same goes with using nukes underwater. Like chemo it is drastic yet has a 80% success rate, better than anything else. Some analysts are against the use of nuclear explosions on fear of the effects on the environment. But the world has already done underwater testing of nuclear devices and if there was a huge environmental disaster as a result of it, we'd have known by now. Indeed, Commandant Cousteau, renowned biologist led numerous dives following French underwater nuclear explosions in the Mururoa atoll and noted very little impact on sea life. using nukes to stop the leak is the most ecological alternative. Stopping the leak before too much oil leak is the key, speed is of the essence. Nukes would allow this to be resolved in a matter of days. This would save thousands of miles of shoreline, millions of animals by not allowing this toxic sludge to contaminate the shore. One of the main issues with using nukes is public opinion. Even though it's the most ecological alternative, nukes have a huge public stigma hard to overcome, mostly due to ignorance. Nuclear bombs are not intended to be used for peaceful, ecological purposes and educating the public on this possibility is an uphill battle. This technology was used by the Russians, the USA's sworn enemy at the peak of the cold war. Never mind the relatively high success rate of 80%, no politician in his right mind would sell a Russian solution to the public. Of course, BP does not have nukes. The US military does, of which the Army Corps of Engineers would probably have to design a plan to use them on the leak. The United States has about 5,113 nuclear war heads, as revealed by Pentagon according to the Strategic Arms Reduction purpose. So, why not use them for peaceful purpose for once?

Status quo solves oil spills Bowermaster 12- Jon Bowermaster is a grantee from the National Geographic Expeditions Council, studies ocean marine life, April 2012, (accessed at http://www.takepart.com/author/jon- bowermaster, accessed on 11/10/12) 1) A CARBON SPONGE — According to researchers at Rice University, one spill solution may be a sponge made from pure carbon nanotubes, with a dash of boron added, which can absorb up to 100 times its weight in oil. Apparently, it’s proven particularly adept at sucking oil off the surface of the water. Once absorbed, the oil can either be stored for later retrieval or burned off, allowing the sponge to be reused. Both hydrophobic and oleophillic—meaning that it “hates the water…and loves the oil”—the carbon sponge works equally well on saltwater as fresh. Oil Spills Good Alternative Energy Scenario Galvanizes politics to shift to alternative energy Kho ’10 (Jennifer, Daily Finance, 5-5-10, “Oil Spill's Impact: Bad for the Environment, Good for Clean Energy?,” http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/05/05/oil-spills-impact-bad-for-the- environment-good-for-clean-ener/) //ER Galvanizing Political Will Awareness about the hazards of oil could, in turn, boost political support for renewables, Browning says. For example, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is considering calling a special legislative session to discuss renewable energy and other topics after the legislature ended its regular session Friday without approving a bill that would enable utilities to buy more renewable energy. "We've been working in Florida a long time to try to get them to move on it, and now the governor is looking at opening a special session to get them to look at renewable issues," Browning says. The coincidental timing of several big wind announcements juxtaposed with news of the spill hasn't been lost on industry spectators either. A plan to install the first offshore wind farm in the U.S., Cape Wind on the Nantucket Sound, got the go-ahead from federal regulators last week. And Google (GOOG) on Monday announced it has invested $38.8 million in two wind farm projects in North Dakota. Industry insiders have been hoping that large corporations would help close the renewable-energy project financing gap that has stretched in the recession, and the deal -- which marks the search giant's first direct investment in a utility renewable- energy project -- could indicate that might start to happen. Shifting the Politics Meanwhile, many have speculated that Obama's proposal to expand offshore drilling as part of the federal energy bill might get junked as a result of the spill, but that could have some unintended effects on clean energy as well. If the offshore drilling proposal, meant to help attract otherwise unlikely votes, has become politically impossible, the energy bill -- and with it, some key provisions supporting clean energy -- may have a slimmer chance of passing.

Oil spills create demand for renewables Reilly 10 – Earth Science Producer at Discovery News (Michael, “The Oil Spill Shows Its Silver Lining”, Discovery, 5/28, http://news.discovery.com/earth/the-oil-spill-shows-its-silver- lining.htm)//JFHH Thursday was a busy day for the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Two teams of scientists pronounced it the worst spill in American history, with between 18 and 39 million gallons of oil already leaked — many times more than original estimates. And while efforts staunch the undersea gusher seem to have made progress with the "top kill" tactic, oil is still flowing, and there are no guarantees it will work. In the short term, it's hard to talk about good news. Toxic oil is washing ashore across 100 miles of Louisiana coastline, a giant oil slick is swirling offshore, and eleven men are dead. But a couple of things happened today that may just reveal a silver lining to this catastrophe. (Above, a satellite image captured on May 24 shows silvery oil hitting the Mississippi River delta. Red portions of the delta indicate vegetated areas, and the oil is most easily visible at the right of the image, as long silver streaks in the water.) For one, the head of the Minerals Management Service, Elizabeth Birnbaum resigned just before a Congressional meeting was set to convene in the morning. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said she resigned "on her own terms and on her own volition," but speculation was rampant the Salazar has started cleaning house in an agency known for its cozy relationship with oil companies. President Obama announced a six-month moratorium on drilling permits, and the suspension of exploratory drilling in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas north of Alaska that had been set to begin July 1. Thirty-three deep-water rigs were also ordered to halt in the Gulf of Mexico and millions of acres of oil and gas leases in the western Gulf and offshore of Virginia were canceled. That's huge news, and a major reversal from Obama's pre-spill announcement that those and perhaps other areas would be newly opened after a nearly 30-year hiatus (which itself came following a massive spill off southern California in 1969). For the moment, the move raises more questions than it answers. A hold on drilling makes sense for now, but what happens in the long term? Will Obama stick to his guns and keep the moratorium going after the leak is shut off? Will his bold move send a price shock through the petroleum industry (and perhaps result in higher gasoline and/or fuel oil prices) and cause a backlash with voters? Or, now that he and Salazar "have their boots on the throat" of BP, the MMS, and all new drilling permits, is this the opening that green technology has been waiting for? Will this oil spill finally steer the course of energy policy in this country away from fossil fuels and toward clean, renewable sources of energy? That's a lot to ask from one oil spill, even the biggest one in U.S. history. But if a horrible environmental catastrophe is going to have a silver lining, that could be it. Bioremediation Scenario Oil spill cleanup helps spur development of bioremediation techniques Benjaminsen ’14 (Christina, SINTEF, 3-10-14, “"Super bacteria" cleaning up after oil spills,” http://www.sintef.no/home/Press-Room/Research-News/Super-bacteria-cleaning-up-after-oil- spills/) //ER We all know that marine bacteria can assist in cleaning up after oil spills. What is surprising is that given the right kind of encouragement, they can be even more effective. "We know that oil spills happen – and that they will happen again", says Roman Netzer, a researcher and biologist at SINTEF. "We also know that this can have a major negative impact on the natural environment. This is why we've been studying a series of chemical and biological analytical techniques to assess the levels of seriousness of oil spills. We also wanted to find out whether so-called bioremediation represents an effective approach to cleaning up after such accidents", he explains. Bioremediation is nature's way of cleaning up. Plants, bacterial decomposers or enzymes are used to remove contaminants and restore the balance of nature in the wake of pollution incidents. Tool box When we clean up after an oil spill of a given size, such as along our shorelines, we start by applying mechanical methods using spades and brooms, combined with chemicals. However, we shouldn't deceive ourselves, even when the worst of the spill has been cleared away. The surface usually conceals oil buried deeper in the sediment. "It is here that biological, or bioremediation, methods, come into their own", says Netzer. "This approach can make cleaning up operations even more thorough, and cost-effective. We wanted to find out what works – and how. And not least to gather data that can be used to support decision-making processes in situations where nature needs that little extra help" he explains. So the researchers set up a number of experiments in the marine laboratory. Their aim was to look into how the microscopic residents of the oceans, such as bacteria and other microbes, can assist us in cleaning up pollutants, and whether they are capable of restoring the natural balance afterwards. And not least, to determine the limiting factors involved in this process. It was only after they had failed to achieve any significant response from their initial experiments, causing them to change the experimental parameters, that their sensational results emerged. Imitating nature along the shoreline Here at Brattørkaia in Trondheim, researchers have assembled a comprehensive "oil library” which they use in this type of research. The properties of the oils have been accurately measured and recorded, and this enabled the researchers to select the perfect oil for their experiment. "The oil we chose is produced in large volumes on the Norwegian shelf, and is thus ideal for simulating a realistic scenario involving the accumulation of oil on a Norwegian shoreline", explains Netzer. "We then tried to simulate what happens in nature when oil becomes stranded", he says. Sixteen tanks were filled with sediments, together with naturally- occurring bacterial flora, oil and seawater. The researchers also simulated the action of the tides by replacing the seawater and thus ensuring that there was an adequate supply of oxygen and nutrients. What then happened in the tanks was carefully recorded. But after a month of observations, only minor amounts of contaminants had been removed. Biological analyses the most sensitive Chemical and biological analyses carried out afterwards produced approximately the same results. "However, we noted that the biological approaches, which analyse the concentrations of bacteria, their DNA, and oxygen consumption, were very sensitive and provided us with a great deal of information. Chemical approaches have to be very advanced in order to achieve the same detection thresholds" says Netzer. "Even the results of the bacterial experiments were obviously disappointing", he explains. "But the biological results indicated that we were on the right track, and this gave us the idea to give nature a helping hand. We already knew that the bacteria would reproduce – and thus be more effective in their work – if they were provided with add itional nutrients. In nature, bacteria flourish best in the presence of high concentrations of phosphates and ", says Netzer. The problem is that the natural concentrations of these substances are insufficient", he says. So the researchers decided to give them a little supplement. They also increased the water temperature, reduced the oxygen concentration and extended the duration of the experiment. The tidal regime was also adjusted, so that now there was a 12-hour interval (instead of the previous 3) between the introduction of new water to the tanks. And this produced results! After one month, the researchers got their clear and unambiguous answers. Analyses revealed that the extra nutrients had enabled the bacteria to work more effectively in breaking down the oil. At the same time, the increase in temperature, reduced oxygen concentration and adjustment of the tidal cycle produced no significant effect. "We think that the data obtained from these experiments will be of considerable importance to the oil companies – not least because they are now expanding their activities into environmentally-sensitive areas in and around the Barents Sea", says Netzer. He now envisages the introduction of a new weapon in the battle to clean up after oil spills. "We believe that in time we will be able to make capsules which can attach themselves to rocks along the shoreline. These will provide the bacteria with ideal growing conditions by releasing nutrients as and when needed", says Netzer. Bioremediation solves age-related diseases De Grey et al ‘5 (Aubrey D.N.J. de Grey, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA Roscoe O. Brady, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, Bethesda, MD, USA Ana Maria Cuervo, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA W. Gray Jerome, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA Ralph A. Nixon, Nathan Kline Institute, Orangeburg, NY, USA Bruce E. Rittmann, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Janet R. Sparrow, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA, “Medical bioremediation: prospects for the application of microbial catabolic diversity to aging and several major age-related diseases,” Ageing Research Reviews, in press, http://www.sens.org/files/pdf/medbioremPP.pdf) //ER 7. Conclusion We argue here that the application of bioremediation methodologies to the degradation of the various recalcitrant aggregates that form in human tissues throughout life has the potential to give rise to unprecedented therapeutic options for the treatment of several of the most debilitating and common diseases in the modern industrialised world. The wide differences between researchers in the age-related diseases and bioremediation make this goal scientifically challenging. However, the potential benefit is so great that new collaborations should be pursued expeditiously and energetically. 8. Acknowledgements This article arose from a workshop held at the headquarters of the National Institute of Aging (NIA), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. The NIA also provided financial support for the workshop. Support for some of the original research presented in this manuscript came from NIH grant RO1 HL48148 (NHLBI). Oil spills spur development of bioremediation technology Hawkins ‘6 (Alison, “Bioremediation of Water Areas Due to Oil Spills,” http://home.eng.iastate.edu/~tge/ce421-521/thehawkenator.pdf) //ER There are various methods that can be used to cleanup an oil spill on a waterway. There are physical, chemical, and biological alternatives. The biological method is also known as bioremediation, which can be broken down into bioaugmentation and biostimulation. Bioaugmentation is the addition of microbe cultures to a contaminated area to increase the number of microbes that can degrade the oil and hydrocarbons. Biostimulation is the addition of nutrients to the contaminated area. These nutrients allow the resident microbial population to have enough nutrients to thrive and grow in numbers and size. This larger population then is able to degrade the toxins in the oil. Bioremediation is a new technology that is emerging. There are numerous tests going on to determine the effectiveness of bioremediation as well as the cost efficiency of this method. The Exxon Valdez hit a reef in 1989 and spilled millions of gallons of oil. This incident showed the lack of information that the US has regarding oil spills and how to clean them up (OTA, 1991). This led to increased research and the beginning of bioremediation. The Exxon Valdez oil spill was one of the first times that bioremediation was looked at as an alternative to cleaning up an oil spill. Extensive research was done to determine the feasibility of bioremediation as an alternative. Since this time, more research has been conducted and more will continue, to find the proper places to use bioremediation as an alternative to cleanup oil spills.

Oil spills spur development of biotechnology to solve environmental harm Onwurah et al ‘7 (Onwurah, I. N. E.1*, Ogugua, V. N.2, Onyike, N. B.3, Ochonogor, A. E.4 and Otitoju, O. F.4 1Pollution Control and Biotechnology Unit, Department of Biochemistry,University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria 2Department of Pure and Industrial Chemistry, University of Nigeria, Nsukka,Enugu State, Nigeria 3Department of Plant Science and Biotechnology, Abia State University,Uturu, Imo State, Nigeria 4Department of Biochemistry, Kogi State University Anyigba, Kogi State Nigeria; International Journal of Environmental Research at University of Tehran, “Crude Oil Spills in the Environment, Effects and Some Innovative Clean-up Biotechnologies,” 2007, http://www.bioline.org.br/request? er07041)//ER Environmental biotechnology is an embodiment of several areas of research that is driven by service and regulation. The extensive utilization of crude oil as a major source of energy has increased the risks of accidental spills and hence pollution of the environment. Today, the need to reduce the negative impacts of PHC pollution due to spills is motivating many researchers into innovations in various aspects of environmental biotechnology that will usher in sustainable development and sustainable environment. The integration of several of these technological advances for ameliorating the negative effects of oil spills in the environment will be most expedient and this review is aimed at highlighting many of these advances. Having a good knowledge or understanding of the various biotechnological advances so far made in clean-up of PHC contaminated ecosystems will further equip bioremediation engineers in designing programs for a more effective and comprehensive clean-up operations. The need for nitrogen compound during any bioremediation of environment contaminated by crude oil is well documented. Hence microbial consortium involving diazotrophic bacteria and hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria should be designed or engineered for bioremediation of crude oil polluted sites. Results obtained from preliminary researches in this area are promising and there is room for improvement. The ecology of such bacteria consortium is a new research area that may present a significant scientific breakthrough. Clean up of hydrocarbon contaminated ecosystem should be approached in a cost effective and environmentally friendly manner. Bioremediation is still the most acceptable technology that can meet up with the regulations that govern clean up of oil- polluted sites. However, all aspects of bioremediation should be integrated with respect to the site in question for rapid and effective remediation efforts, and monitoring should be an integral aspect of any bioremediation program.

Testing tech on oil spills key to development of effective bioremediation technology – solves back the impact Mendelssohn and Lin ‘3 (Irving A. and Qianzin, “Development of Bioremediation for Oil Spill Cleanup in Coastal Wetlands,” Wetland Biogeochemistry Institute, School of the Coast and Environment, US Department of the Interior Minerals Management Service, Coastal Marine Institute of LSU, http://edocs.dlis.state.fl.us/fldocs/oilspill/federal/ESPIS3080.pdf) //ER The northern Gulf Coast of the United States is a region of intense oil exploration, production, transmission, and refining. Consequently, coastal states, such as Louisiana, are subject to oil spills resulting from shipping accidents, production-related incidents, and pipeline ruptures. Since these incidents often occur in the nearshore environment, coastal salt marshes are frequently the first wetland habitat to be subjected to the oil. As a result, a large number of investigations have documented the effect of petroleum hydrocarbon spills on the dominant salt marsh plant species, especially Spartina alterniflora (Hershner and Lake 1980; Lee et al. 1981; Alexander and Webb 1983; Ferrell et al. 1984; Mendelssohn et al. 1990; Lin and Mendelssohn 1996 and others). In addition, some investigators (DeLaune et al. 1984; Mendelssohn et al. 1993; Lin et al. 1999a) have evaluated the impact of oil cleanup procedures in salt marshes. Not only can petroleum hydrocarbons have a detrimental impact on coastal marshes, but, additionally, the cleanup of the oil from these highly sensitive environments is often more damaging than the oil itself. Hence, it is important to develop less intrusive oil spill cleanup procedures that exert little to no impact on wetland ecosystems. Bioremediation is the act of adding materials to contaminated environments, such as oil spill sites, to cause an acceleration of the natural biodegradation process (U.S. Congress 1991). It is a promising means by which oil released into salt marshes, as well as other wetland types, can be removed with little impact to the habitat. Bacteria, cultured and selected for high rates of oil degradation, and fertilizers, which enhance native microbial activity, are two types of bioremediation products that can be added to oil-contaminated wetlands. Inorganic fertilizer, which enhances native microbial activity, is one of the most common bioremediation agents applied to oil contaminated wetlands. A number of studies have demonstrated the potential for enhanced oil degradation as a result of bioremediation, especially through nutrient additions (Lee and Levy 1987; Tabak et al. 1991; Safferman 1991; Lee and Levy 1991; Bragg et al. 1993; Lee et al. 1993). Specifically for wetlands, Scherrer and Mille (1990) confirmed enhanced degradation of oil in a West Indies mangrove swamp after the addition of an oleophilic fertilizer. Similarly, Lee and Levy (1991) found enhanced degradation of oil, this time in salt marsh sediments, treated with inorganic nutrients. However, critical evaluations of oil bioremediation potential in wetland environments, based on oil chemical analyses that can unequivocally identify enhanced biodegradation, is sparse in the published literature. Microbial seeding as a means of enhancing oil biodegradation, has even greater uncertainties associated with it, especially in systems such as wetlands where hydrocarbon degrading bacteria are naturally prevalent. For example, microbial seeding was used in an experimental mode to test its effectiveness in cleaning up an oil spill in a marsh (Marrow Marsh) in Galveston Bay. The reported results did not indicate that the microbial seeding significantly degraded oil at this marsh site (Mearns 1991). In a more recent investigation (Venosa et al. 1992), two microbial products, which exhibited enhanced biodegradation of Alaska North Slope crude oil in shaker flask tests, did not accelerate biodegradation in a field experiment conducted on an oiled beach in Prince William Sound. The high variability in the data, the highly weathered nature of the oil, and a lack of sufficient time for biodegradation were cited as possible reasons for the lack of response. Regardless of these equivocal results, many microbial products have been commercialized. If added microbes, per se, are not effective in increasing oil degradation, the high costs of microbial amendments may not be warranted. Oil response agencies, both public and private, require a critical evaluation of microbial seeding in enhancing oil biodegradation. Soil oxidation status is another important factor influencing oil biodegradation in wetland environments. Generally, wetland soils are saturated with water and exhibit biochemically reduced soil conditions, which may limit oil degradation (Hambrick et al. 1980). Therefore, procedures that increase the oxidation status of sediments may favor bioremediation (Lin and Mendelssohn 1997). The use of soil oxidants to increase oil biodegradation in the wetland environment has received little attention (McKee and Mendelssohn 1995).

Solves age-related diseases – but depends on being tested first Mathieu et al ‘9 (“Medical bioremediation of age-related diseases,” Jacques M Mathieu1*, John Schloendorn2, Bruce E Rittmann2 and Pedro JJ Alvarez1: 1 Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA, 2 Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA, Microbial Cell Factories, http://www.microbialcellfactories.com/content/8/1/21#sec8) //ER The harnessing of microbial catabolic capacity for the treatment of age-related disease offers new therapeutic options for some of the most common maladies of Western society. Since the idea of medical bioremediation was first conceived several years ago [4,5], technical barriers have been overcome, and knowledge has developed that further substantiates its potential feasibility. For example, bacterial enzymes have been expressed in the lysosomes of mammalian cells [201], techniques exist to circumvent the problem of crossing the blood- brain barrier [118,193], and methods of inducing immune tolerance are being actively developed [202- 204]. However, widespread implementation of medical bioremediation will depend on the success of trials that will test its efficacy and safety. Our own labs are actively identifying enzymes capable of degrading several important targets; new collaborations and an expanded awareness of this therapeutic option would provide the academic and commercial support necessary to accelerate the development of treatments. Bioremediation solves aging Hughes ‘9 (James J., General Science/Biology, “Researchers seek to create 'fountain of youth',” Arizona State University, Biodesign Institute profile, http://www.transhumanism.org/pipermail/ieet-life/2009-January/000240.html) //ER A Biodesign Institute research team is working on applying the same principles used to remove contaminants from the environment, on the human body, in an effort to reverse the effects of aging. (PhysOrg.com) -- The same principles that a Biodesign Institute research team has successfully applied to remove harmful contaminants from the environment may one day allow people to clean up the gunk from their bodies-and reverse the effects of aging. The Biodesign Institute, along with partner, the Methuselah Foundation, is working to vanquish age-related disease by making old cells feel younger. "The mainstream approach to curing aging diseases is to delay them a little bit, which is great for pharmaceutical sales, but not so good for fixing people," said John Schloendorn, a Molecular and Cellular Biology Ph.D. student who works in the lab of Dr. Bruce Rittmann, director of the Biodesign Institute's Center for Environmental Biotechnology. "What's different about the Methuselah Foundation is that their approach is to directly repair the damage that the passage of time does to our bodies and eventually causes disease." Their collaboration addresses age-related problems, such as heart disease, macular degeneration, and Alzheimer's disease, by understanding the root causes of disease. A number of diseases that appear with age are primarily caused by a lifetime of accumulated debris inside of cells. One theory of aging is that, as the molecular junk collects in our bodies through the years, it causes the onset of disease. For example, the buildup of a vitamin A byproduct is directly responsible for the leading cause of blindness in the elderly, macular degeneration, while the accumulation of sticky proteins in the brain has been linked to Alzheimer's disease. Every day, millions of metabolic products whiz throughout our bodies to help nourish and sustain human health. Most of the time, those that aren't used are filtered and passed out of the body, but over time some become resistant to degradation, piling up as junk in our cells. Our bodies are not naturally equipped to degrade these harmful substances; however, Schloendorn noticed that there is not an overabundance of these molecules in the environment. Therefore, there must be a source of natural enzymes that are capable of breaking down the cellular debris. In much the same way as the buildup of junk can put a stranglehold on the natural environment around it, the collection of these miscellaneous materials can place extreme stress on a cell. The enzymes capable of decomposing the junk are like implementing a recycling program in a landfill. They salvage the used materials and there is a possibility that the basic pieces can be reused elsewhere in the cell. "We are looking for these enzymes in all sorts of organisms. We have some that come from soil bacteria, we have one that comes from the crocus flower, another one that comes from mammals," said Schloendorn. The idea of toxin degradation in the body dovetails with an environmental innovation by team leader Rittmann, who used microbes to break down toxins in polluted water. The microorganisms degrade petroleum hydrocarbons in contaminated water and leave clean water behind in a method called environmental bioremediation. The application of these principles to human health is called medical bioremediation. In the early stages of environmental bioremediation, the research team had to find microbes that contained enzymes capable of breaking down the pollutants found in the contaminated water. This is the same tactic being used to reverse the accumulation of the biomolecules in the body. Rittmann sees his team's research on medical bioremediation as a natural extension of his past work. "Working to reverse aging in human cells may seem like a wild departure from my long-standing interests in environmental clean up, but it is completely logical, once one understands that aging involves the accumulation of organic contaminants over time. Targeting enzymes to transform harmful deposits in human cells is similar in concept to bioremediation of petroleum or solvent deposits in soil and aquifers."

Age-related diseases kill the most people – causes comparatively more suffering than any other impact CAA ’14 (Campaign Against Aging, “Aging: Humanity's Biggest Problem,” 2014, http://www.campaignagainstaging.org/aging_humanitys_biggest_problem.php) //ER Aging is humanity's biggest problem, because it causes the most death and suffering compared to all other causes put together. That includes causes such as starvation, violence, infectious diseases, environmental degradation, accidents—you name it. Aging is also much more likely to affect you personally and most of the people you know more than any other problem. Concerns about the effects of defeating aging are legitimate but do not outweigh the merits of saving so many lives and alleviating so much suffering. Death Caused By Aging The number of people killed by aging is enormous and far larger than all other causes of death combined. Out of the 150,000 people that die each day worldwide, two-thirds—100,000 people—die of aging. That means aging causes the equivalent of about thirty World Trade Centers every single day. In the developed world, aging causes 90 percent of all deaths. That means that nine out of ten people die of aging. In a single year, 36 million lives are lost due to aging versus 18 million due to all of the other causes of death. World War II, the deadliest war in history, killed over 60 million people. Aging kills just as many people every two years. Unlike war, the death toll from aging never stops. Suffering Caused By Aging Besides being the leading cause of death, aging also inflicts the most human misery compared to all other causes before eventually killing its victims. Most people do not die of aging instantly; few die peacefully in their sleep without struggling for years with chronic, debilitating, age-related disease. Usually, the older people become the more likely they are to develop diseases caused by the aging process such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinson's disease. In the United States: 74 percent of people between the ages of 65 to 69 have at least one chronic disease. Of those aged 85 and over, 86 percent have at least one chronic disease. 28 percent of those aged 85 and over suffer from five or more chronic diseases. Almost 40 percent of people aged 85 and over either cannot walk or find walking to be very difficult. Nearly 50 percent of those over age 85 develop some form of dementia such as Alzheimer's disease. Age-related diseases relentlessly increase disability and frailty years and often a decade or more before eventually killing their victims. Families have to watch helplessly the inexorable physical and mental decline of an affected family member. Other family members are often forced to become caregivers and independence is lost both for themselves as well as for their disabled family member. Concerns About Defeating Aging Concerns about the possible effects of defeating aging such as overpopulation and unequal distribution of aging-defeating medical therapies are legitimate but do not outweigh the merits of saving so many lives and alleviating so much suffering—especially given the fact that there are reasonable solutions for each of these concerns. Even if you find some of the proposed solutions unconvincing, these concerns are likely not as important in comparison to the alternative—years of suffering and eventual death for you, your family, and your friends which is guaranteed to happen if aging is not defeated. Another way to think about this is to consider if you are willing to sacrifice yourself and everyone you know in addition to the 100,000 people that die of aging every day for concerns that are theoretical at best and already have solutions that are at least as realistic as the concerns are themselves. If you do not mind suffering and dying of aging, other people should nevertheless be given the chance to decide for themselves instead of having that choice gradually taken away from them by the aging process.

Bioremediation can be used to contain nuclear waste Phillipson ’94 (Anthony, Nuclear Guardianship Forum, Issue #3, Spring 1994, From a report by Rose Kirkham, summarized by Anthony Phillipson, “Bioremediation of Nuclear Waste -- How Much of an Option Is It?” http://www.nonukes.org/r09bior.htm) //ER One technology that holds promise for eventually reducing the toxicity and amount of radioactive waste is bioremediation, using live bacteria. This technology makes use of the ability of live cells or enzymes to clean and reduce the volume of waste. The organisms that are used metabolize anaerobically, i.e., in non-oxygen conditions, by chemically reacting with metal ions in solution, reducing them to lower oxidation states (lower ionic charge). For some elements, this reduced ion is insoluble, so it precipitates out of solution as a solid. For example, soluble Uranium6+ is reduced to insoluble U4+ which precipitates as solid uraninite, UO2. These precipitates can be recovered easily, then isolated and contained. A British proposal describes a live cell "bioreactor" to treat liquid uranium waste. Using a specific species of microorganism results in uranium uptake equal to 900 per cent of the live cells' dry mass or 9 grams of uranium per gram of dry cells. Another species, which absorbs 11 grams of uranium per gram of dry cells, has been shown to precipitate relatively pure uranium oxide which is easily recoverable. Similar organisms may be able to do the same for technetium (Tc) and plutonium (Pu). It has also been suggested that such a micro-organism could be injected underground into uranium-contaminated ground waters to form a barrier to future migration of dissolved uranium. Many unknowns remain. However, with so few answers to the problem of radioactive waste, such explorations must continue.

Key to nuclear waste removal Griggs ’11 (Mary Beth, Popular Mechanics, “How Microbes Clean Up Our Environmental Messes,” 8-29-11, http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/waste/how-microbes- will-clean-up-our-messes) //ER Microbes are nature’s ultimate garbage disposal, devouring the dead, decomposing and inert material that litters Earth’s surface. They’re so good at it, in fact, that humans have taken an increasing interest in coercing them to clean up our environmental messes. The concept is called bioremediation, and it involves using organisms that either naturally love to eat contaminants or have been genetically altered to give them the taste for toxins. Scientists are designing or deploying microbes to purge sites of contaminants such as PCBs, oil, radioactive waste, gasoline and mercury, and new bioremediation research appears regularly. Genetic Tinkering For one study published recently in the journal BMC Biotechnology, researchers at the Inter American University of Puerto Rico modified E. coli bacteria (a common lab bacteria) with genes that allowed the microorganisms to not only survive in mercury but to remove it from waste sites. The genes in question produce proteins called metallothionein and polyphosphate kinase that allow the bacterial cells to develop a resistance to mercury and to accumulate large amounts of the heavy metal within the organism, thereby isolating it. “Mercury is really toxic, and there are no natural organisms that can bioremediate mercury,” says Oscar Ruiz, one of the study’s lead authors. However, there are a few organisms that make it more dangerous. They transform the ionic or elemental mercury, which is discharged from industrial sites such as coal-burning power plants, into the more toxic version, methylmercury. Methylmercury can accumulate in plants and animals, and is most toxic to those at the top of the food chain. Ruiz’s goal for his transgenic bacteria is for them to sequester mercury contamination before the natural bacteria have a chance to turn it into toxic methylmercury. The modified bacteria wouldn’t be set loose in the wild, as there are strict government regulations about releasing genetically modified organisms into the environment. Instead, these bacteria would do their work in filters that can be brought to contaminated sites and used to filter the mercury out of water. It’s possible they might even be able to recover the mercury for use in other industries. “Mercury is very important in many, many industrial applications,” Ruiz says. Giving Nature a Boost Creating genetically modified microbes to do our dirty work is only really useful when dealing with contaminants like mercury, where there are no known natural bacteria capable of doing the job. In most other bioremediation cases, nature just needs a little bit of a helping hand.

Nuclear waste is the biggest impact – environmental damage and terrorism World Nuclear Association ’12 (WNA, representing the people and organisations of the global nuclear profession, “Radioactive Wastes - Myths and Realities,” October 2012, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-wastes---myths- and-realities/) //ER 2. The transportation of this waste poses an unacceptable risk to people and the environment Nuclear materials have been transported safely (virtually without incident and without harmful effect on anyone) since before the advent of nuclear power over 50 years ago. Transportations of nuclear materials cannot therefore be referred to as 'mobile Chernobyls'. The primary assurance of safety in the transport of nuclear materials is the way in which they are packaged. Packages that store waste during transportation are designed to ensure shielding from radiation and containment of waste, even under the most extreme accident conditions. Since 1971, there have been more than 20,000 safe shipments of highly radioactive used fuel and high- level wastes (over 50,000 tonnes) over more than 30 million kilometres (about 19 million miles) with no property damage or personal injury, no breach of containment, and very low radiation dose to the personnel involved. Further information Transport of Radioactive Materials Waste Management in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Appendix 1: Treatment and Conditioning of Nuclear Wastes [Back] 3. Plutonium is the most dangerous material in the world Plutonium has been stated to be 'the most toxic substance on earth' and so hazardous that 'a speck can kill'. Plutonium is indeed toxic and therefore must be handled in a responsible manner. Its hazard is principally associated with the ionising radiation it emits. However, it is primarily hazardous if inhaled in small particles. Comparisons between toxic substances are not straightforward since the effect of plutonium inhalation would be to increase the probability of a cancer in several years time, whilst most other toxins lead to immediate death. Best comparisons indicate that, gram for gram, toxins such as ricin and some snake venoms and cyanide are significantly more toxic. Consider also that all the cleaning products that we have in our kitchen are toxic if we absorb them, whilst some of the products that are spread onto crops are toxic as well. Further information Plutonium [Back] 4. There is a potential terrorist threat to the large volumes of radioactive wastes currently being stored and the risk that this waste could leak or be dispersed as a result of terrorist action High-level waste (HLW) and used fuel is kept in secure nuclear facilities with appropriate protection measures. Most high-level wastes produced are held as stable ceramic solids or in vitrified form (glass), designed to ensure that radioactive isotopes resulting from the nuclear reaction are retained securely in the glass or ceramic. Their structure is such that they would be very difficult to disperse by terrorist action, so that the threat from so-called 'dirty bombs' is not high.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has responded to suggestions that spent fuel is vulnerable to terrorist actions and should be put into dry storage casks after five years: "Nuclear power reactor spent fuel pools are neither easily reached nor easily breached. Instead, they are strong structures constructed of very thick steel-reinforced concrete walls with stainless steel liners. In addition, other design characteristics of these pools, not analyzed in the paper, can make them highly resistant to damage and can ease the ability to cope with any damage. Such characteristics can include having the fuel in the pool partially or completely below grade and having the pool shielded by other plant structures."b A report released on June 25, 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences, concludes that if a dirty bomb attack were to occur, "the casualty rate would likely be low, and contamination could be detected and removed from the environment, although such cleanup would probably be expensive and time consuming." The disruption caused by such an attack would result from public fear of anything 'nuclear', and thus "the ease of recovery...would depend to a great extent on how the attack was handled by first responders, political leaders, and the news media, all of which would help to shape public opinion and reactions."c The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has identified medical and industrial radioactive sources as posing considerable concern in terms of potential terrorist threats from their use in 'dirty bombs'. The need for stronger controls to prevent the theft or loss of control of powerful radiological sources and hence ensure their safety and security has been highlighted as of paramount importance. Further information Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism, Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism, National Research Council of the National Academies, The National Academies Press (ISBN: 9780309084819) IAEA Security of Radioactive Sources webpage (www-ns.iaea.org/security/sources.htm) NRC Nuclear Security and Safeguards webpage (www.nrc.gov/security.html) [Back] 5. Nuclear wastes are hazardous for tens of thousands of years. This clearly is unprecedented and poses a huge threat to our future generations in the long-term Many industries produce hazardous waste. The nuclear industry has developed technology that will ensure its hazardous waste can be managed appropriately so as to cause no risk to future generations. In fact, the radioactivity of nuclear wastes naturally decays progressively and has a finite radiotoxic lifetime. The radioactivity of high-level wastes decays to the level of an equivalent amount of original mined uranium ore in between 1,000 and 10,000 years. Its hazard then depends on how concentrated it is. Compare this to other industrial wastes (e.g. heavy metals such as cadmium and mercury), which remain hazardous indefinitely. Most nuclear wastes produced are hazardous, due to their radioactivity, for only a few tens of years and are routinely disposed in near-surface disposal facilities. A small volume of nuclear waste (~3% volume of total waste produced) is long-lived and highly radioactive and requires isolation from the environment for many thousands of years. International conventions define what is hazardous in terms of radiation dose, and national regulations limit allowable doses accordingly. Well-developed industry technology ensures that these regulations are met so that any hazardous wastes are handled in a way that poses no risk to human health or the environment. Waste is converted into a stable form that is suitable for disposal. In the case of high-level waste, a multi-barrier approach, combining containment and geological disposal, ensures isolation of the waste from people and the environment for thousands of years.

Bioremediation solves the impact – dispersants and bacteria Biello ’10 (David, Scientific American, “Slick Solution: How Microbes Will Clean Up the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” 5-25-10, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how- microbes-clean-up-oil-spills/) //ER The last (and only) defense against the ongoing Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is tiny—billions of hydrocarbon-chewing microbes, such as Alcanivorax borkumensis. In fact, the primary motive for using the more than 830,000 gallons of chemical dispersants on the oil slick both above and below the surface of the sea is to break the oil into smaller droplets that bacteria can more easily consume. "If the oil is in very small droplets, microbial degradation is much quicker," says microbial ecologist Kenneth Lee, director of the Center for Offshore Oil, Gas and Energy Research with Fisheries and Oceans Canada, who has been measuring the oil droplets in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the effectiveness of the dispersant use. "The dispersants can also stimulate microbial growth. Bacteria will chew on the dispersants as well as the oil." For decades scientists have pursued genetic modifications that might enhance these microbes' ability to chew up oil spills, whether on land or sea. Even geneticist Craig Venter forecast such an application last week during the unveiling of the world's first synthetic cell, and one of the first patents on a genetically engineered organism was a hydrocarbon-eating microbe, notes microbiologist Ronald Atlas of the University of Louisville. But there are no signs of such organisms put to work outside the lab. "Microbes are available now but they are not effective for the most part," says marine microbiologist Jay Grimes of the University of Southern Mississippi. At this point, there are no man- made microbes that are more effective than naturally occurring ones at utilizing hydrocarbons. The natural world is replete with a host of organisms that combine as a community to decompose oil—and no single microbe, no matter how genetically enhanced, has proved better than this natural defense. "Every ocean we look at, from the Antarctic to the Arctic, there are oil-degrading bacteria," says Atlas, who evaluated genetically engineered microbes and other cleanup ideas in the wake of the Exxon-Valdez oil spill in Alaska. "Petroleum has thousands of compounds. It's complex and the communities that feed on it are complex. A superbug fails because it competes with this community that is adapted to the environment."

Microbes solve the impact Biello ’10 (David, Scientific American, “Slick Solution: How Microbes Will Clean Up the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” 5-25-10, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how- microbes-clean-up-oil-spills/) //ER Just like your automobile, these marine-dwelling bacteria and fungi use the hydrocarbons as fuel—and emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) as a result. In essence, the microbes break down the ring structures of the hydrocarbons in seaborne oil using enzymes and oxygen in the seawater. The end result is ancient oil turned into modern-day bacterial biomass—populations can grow exponentially in days. "Down in the Gulf of Mexico there is an indigenous population [of microbes] adapted to oil from so much marine traffic and daily spills. Oil is not new," says Lee, who has also been monitoring the plumes of oil beneath the surface. "There are so many natural seeps around the world that if it wasn't for microbes we would have a lot of oil in the oceans." Already, measurements of oxygen depletion of as much as 30 percent in the Gulf of Mexico seawater suggest that the microbes are hard at work eating oil. "I take the 30 percent depletion of oxygen in water near the oil as indicating bacterial degradation," Atlas says. That happens best near the surface, whether at land or sea, where warm-water bacteria such as Thalassolituus oleivorans can thrive; colder, deeper waters inhibit microbial growth. "Metabolism slows by about a factor of two or three for every 10 degree[s] Celsius you drop in temperature," notes biogeochemist David Valentine of the University of California, Santa Barbara, who just received funding from the National Science Foundation to characterize the microbial response to the ongoing oil spill. "The deeper stuff, that's going to happen very slowly because the temperature is so low." Unfortunately, that's exactly where some of the Deepwater Horizon oil seems to be ending up. "They saw the oil at 800 to 1,400 meters depth," says microbial ecologist Andreas Teske of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, whose graduate student Luke McKay was on the research vessel Pelican that first reported such subsurface plumes—as predicted by small-scale experiments, such as the U.S. Minerals Management Services Project "Deep Spill". "It is either at the surface or hanging in the water column and possibly sinking down to the sediment." Yet, microbes are the only process to break down the oil deeper in the water, far away from physical processes on the surface such as evaporation or waves. "The deep waters are dominantly microbial" when it comes to oil degradation, although these communities are not as well studied as those at the surface, notes microbial geochemist Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia. "As long as there is oxygen around, it will get chewed up." To understand how the microbes will work and how quickly, however, will require a better understanding of exactly how much oil is out there. "It's a function of size, and we don't know size," Joye says. "We need to know how much oil is leaking out. Without that information we can't begin to make any kind of calculation of potential oxygen demand or anything else." BP now admits that its original estimate of roughly 200,000 gallons per day was far too low without providing an alternative; independent experts have offered estimates as high as four million gallons per day. It is possible to add fertilizers, such as , nitrogen and phosphorus, to stimulate the growth of such bacteria, an approach used to speed up microbial activity in the sediment along the Alaska coast after the Exxon-Valdez spill. "We saw a three to five times increase in rate of biodegradation," Atlas says, suggesting the technique might prove effective along the oil-inundated Louisiana coast as well. "It was hundreds of miles of shoreline, the largest bioremediation project ever." Economy Scenario Oil spills raise GDP Lowrey ’10 (Annie, “Oil Spill as Stimulus,” 6-15-10, The Washington Independent, http://washingtonindependent.com/86973/oil-spill-as-stimulus) //ER The Wall Street Journal reports on a J.P. Morgan Chase analysis showing that the oil spill choking off fishing and tourism dollars to the Gulf might actually raise GDP a smidge. Underlining that gross domestic product measures are often not a good guide to an economy’s well being, the bank said in a research note its best guess is that the impact on the U.S. economy of BP’s Gulf Coast spill would be minimal. “The spill clearly implies a lot of economic hardship in some locations, but given what we know today, the magnitude of these setbacks looks dwarfed by the scale of the US macroeconomy,” said chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. If anything, he added, U.S. GDP could gain slightly from it. The six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling may cut U.S. oil production by around 3% in 2011 and cost more than 3,000 jobs, according to J.P. Morgan’s energy analysts. Commercial fishing in the Gulf is also likely to suffer, but that’s only about 0.005% of U.S. GDP. The impact on tourism is the hardest to measure, although it’s fair to expect that many hotel workers who lose their jobs will find it hard to get new ones. Still, cleaning up the spill will likely be enough to slightly offset the negative impact of all this on GDP, J.P. Morgan said. The bank cites estimates of 4,000 unemployed people hired for the cleanup efforts, which some reports have said could be worth between $3 and $6 billion. The J.P. Morgan analysts are right that the oil spill will have outsize impact on a few industries, impacts partially offset or even entirely replaced by new economic activity. Vacationers aren’t staying in those Louisiana hotels, but clean-up workers and lawyers and the National Guard are.

Oil spills solve the economies of affected areas and boost national growth Upton ’14 (John, 5-5-14, “Pipeline builder says oil spills can be good for the economy,” Grist, http://grist.org/news/pipeline-builder-says-oil-spills-can-be-good-for-the-economy/) //ER Kinder Morgan wants to spend $5.4 billion tripling the capacity of an oil pipeline between the tar sands of Alberta and the Vancouver, B.C., area. Yes, the company acknowledges, there’s always the chance of a “large pipeline spill.” But it says the “probability” of such an accident is “low.” And anyway, if a spill does happen, it could be an economic boon. “Spill response and cleanup” after oil pipeline ruptures, such as the emergency operations near Kalamazoo, Mich., in 2010 and in the Arkansas community of Mayflower last year, create “business and employment opportunities for affected communities, regions, and cleanup service providers,” the company argues. Those aren’t the outrageous comments of a company executive shooting off his mouth while a reporter happened to be neaby. Those are quotes taken from an official document provided to the Canadian government in support of the company’s efforts to expand its pipeline. It’s a bit like claiming cancer caused by nuclear accidents can be great because it provides work for oncologists. Here’s more from The Vancouver Sun: “Pipeline spills can have both positive and negative effects on local and regional economies, both in the short- and long-term,” the company states in its submission to the National Energy Board, the federal government’s Calgary-based regulatory agency. …

Exxon-valdez spill proves – economically beneficial Huffington Post ’14 (Huffington Post Canada, Business, 5-1-14, “Kinder Morgan: Oil Spills' Economic Effects Are Both Good And Bad,” http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/05/01/kinder- morgan-oil-spills-good-economy_n_5248096.html) //ER There is at least something of a bright side to oil spills, pipeline company Kinder Morgan says. In a recent submission to the National Energy Board, the company says marine oil spills “can have both positive and negative effects on local and regional economies” thanks to the economic activity generated by cleanup operations. “Spill response and clean-up creates business and employment opportunities for affected communities, regions, and clean-up service providers,” the company says. The comments appear in a 15,000-page application to the NEB to triple the capacity of its Trans Mountain Pipeline, which carries oil from Alberta to Port Metro Vancouver. Environmentalists fear an increase in oil shipments through West Coast waters would increase the risk of oil tanker accidents. Kinder Morgan’s submission doesn’t ignore the negatives; it points out that oil spills are devastating to fishing and tourism industries, and notes the negative impacts on human health, damage to property and harm done to “cultural resources.” But it cites a 1990 research paper looking at the economic impacts of the Exxon Valdez oil spill to argue there are positive elements as well. Economic benefits Gonzalez ’14 (Christopher Smith, 3-27-14, Galveston County, The Daily News, “Oil spill creates demand for workers,” http://www.galvestondailynews.com/free/article_57a6abc6-b56d-11e3- b840-001a4bcf6878.html)//ER TEXAS CITY — It’s not much of a silver lining, but some people are finding paying jobs responding to the oil spill in Galveston Bay. As many of 800 temporary jobs became available because of the spill, said James Patterson, a business consultant with Workforce Solutions, a human resources provider for the Gulf Coast region. The U.S. Coast Guard and emergency responders have been working to clean out oil of Galveston Bay since Saturday when a barge and a cargo ship collided near the Texas City Dike causing a spill of more than 168,000 gallons. A local office of the staffing company, Labor Ready, put out a call for hydro-blasters to help clean ships and general laborers earlier this week, Patterson said. Potential workers need to have a Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response certification, he said. The call for certified workers has also gone out over social media. The Nederland-based Industrial Recruitment Services posted on its Facebook page that it was looking for laborers to work on the oil spill response in Galveston Bay. For workers with the proper certification, pay could be as much as $12 to $18 an hour, according to the company’s post. Patterson said he also received information from companies looking for cooks, both on land and offshore. Those jobs pay as much as $200 day. The general labor and hydro- blaster positions pay about $10 to $15, he said. While the call is going out now for workers, the positions may only last as long as the oil spill continues, Patterson said. “It does get people working but who knows how long,” he said. Ethics Scenario Oil spills solve ethics – and oil gives people jobs Dreaming Out Loud ’10 (Administrator, “OIL SPILLS: BAD FOR BIRDS, GOOD FOR ETHICS MIRRORS,” 7-9-10, http://www.dreamingoutloud.org/oil-spills-bad-for-birds-good-for- ethics-mirrors/) //ER The oil crisis has defined a community in terms of a shared economic lifeblood. The Gulf community depends on its coastal access to sustain major fishing and tourism industries. Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi are currently suffering the consequences of resource misuse. As oil fills the Gulf of Mexico, fishing and shrimping activities have been severely limited, and tourism has declined significantly. The spill has revealed the community’s reliance on these industries, and what the Gulf gives to people in the region. However, the spill is also proving the community’s ability to work together to overcome a disaster (this scenario sounds familiar). Countless organizations and volunteers are cooperating to remove oil, revitalize local wildlife, and begin economic activities again. The oil crisis is also expanding the definition of community; the oil spill is affecting people and wildlife from faraway regions. The spill’s repercussions are rippling through the economy; they can be felt even in New York City. Migratory species, though only in the Gulf for a small amount of time, are harmed by the oil spill. The oil’s effects are deep and widespread, bringing our interconnectedness to light. Likewise, the response to the spill comes from both near and far. People around the world share the local community’s outrage at the unsafe extraction of oil. The federal government is working with state agencies to coordinate cleanup efforts. Though in terrible circumstances, the oil spill underscores the shared interests and responsibilities of the larger, even global community. BOA ME NA ME MMOA: cooperation Though the journey has been a little rocky, people are finally cooperating their efforts to stem the oil spill and complete the cleaning process. Initially, cooperation was nonexistent, and BP, Transocean, and the US government engaged in much finger pointing. When BP was deemed responsible, it resolved to clean the Gulf itself. However, on April 28, the government joined BP’s cleanup effort, officially taking some of the responsibility. The overall cleanup has taken the form of a “unified command.” In this way, all involved groups have access to each other and consensus decisions can be made. The groups include BP, Transocean, and federal agencies (including Minerals Management Service, NOAA, the EPA, Homeland Security, the Coast Guard, the Department of the Interior, the Department of State, the Department of Defense, the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, the US Geological Survey, the Centers for Disease Control, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration). Cooperation allows the groups to pool their knowledge and resources. Cooperation is also present between state and federal officials. Louisianan state officials favored the construction of sand berms to help shield their wetlands. However, federal officials questioned both the effectiveness and long term effects of such berms. Louisiana was unable to build any berms without federal permission, and arguments arose. Fortunately, Louisiana Attorney General Buddy Caldwell asserted the state’s right to build berms in the face of possible coastal damage. The federal government cooperated with the state’s wishes, and the berms were approved on June 1. ASASE YE DURU: sustainability Based on the effects of the Deepwater Horizon leak, offshore drilling is not sustainable (at least not at current levels of investment in spill prevention). The ecological consequences of the spill are deep and potentially irreversible. Though the lesson is harsh, the oil spill teaches us that unchecked resource extraction can impact many nonhuman species. If this ecosystem is to be sustained, the oil extraction industry must be amended. The Deepwater Horizon spill affects Gulf ecology from the ground up. Plankton, which are very susceptible to oil, form the basis of the Gulf food chain. If plankton die, the effects could ripple through the entire ecosystem. Scientists do not know how extensively the local ecology will change, but it could potentially be weakened for years to come. Furthermore, the oil threatens coastal wetlands. Wetlands are important sources of biodiversity as well as storm surge buffers. Like plankton, such lands are critical components of the Gulf ecosystem. The spill also poses a direct threat to species in the higher trophic levels. Oil bogs birds down and renders them flightless. The sticky stuff is also lethal to turtle eggs. Scavenger species, including bald eagles, inadvertently ingest oil when they feast on victims of the leak; ingestion can lead to organ failure and other troubles. These larger animals face a double attack, both direct exposure and indirect loss of their food supply. AKOMA: patience ∙ tolerance Central to the oil spill crisis is the need for a peaceful solution. The researchers, politicians, and businesspeople involved must be tolerant of each other’s ideas. Furthermore, people must find patience and humility when their ideas prove unsuccessful. During such times, it is important to acknowledge failure and allow others to contribute their ideas. At the spill’s outset, both BP and the Obama administration were looking for someone to blame. More important, however, was the need for the various groups to recognize a common failure, and to begin the solution process. Fortunately, they reached this point within a few weeks after the rig explosion. AYA: endurance ∙ resourcefulness Though BP has experienced several disheartening failures in their attempt to stop the leak, they endure; the company is continuously searching for better solutions. Initially, BP tried to implement the rig’s blowout protector, a set of valves which was designed to stop oil outflow in emergency situations. When the valve system failed to halt the flow, they tried to build containment dome. The dome was also unsuccessful. Operation “top kill,” which was a government-approved attempt to plug the well with heavy fluid, also lead to a dead end. Insertion of a giant “straw” to suck up some of the escaping oil found limited success. BP held further consultations with the government, and on June 3 a loose-fitting cap was successfully placed over the broken pipe. BP is now in the process of building relief wells to reduce the stress placed on the cap. The oil spill also brings resourcefulness to light; the events of the past seven weeks force us to question our oil use. Can we continue to use this resource so readily? We now see the incompatibility between heavy dependence on oil and assured protection for the oceans. The investment put into extracting oil has not been matched by investment into research on accident prevention (specifically, the federal Minerals Management Service never developed an adequate response plan for spills). In other words, we are too focused on oil use and have not taken proper safety measures. The federal government has placed a moratorium on the Gulf, an order which will limit exploratory, deepwater drilling for months to come. While a reduction in drilling lessens the chance of another spill, it also puts people out of work. This Gulf community, which has already proved its resilience during the aftermath of Katrina, will again have to endure a period of hardships. In pursuit of that elusive silver lining, the moratorium may provide a backdrop which shifts the regional economy away from drilling and toward green jobs. AKOFENA: moral courage Though the challenge is daunting and the stakes are high, neither the government nor BP has the option to give up. This crisis must be handled thoroughly and immediately. Though some may still be looking to blame others for the spill, people must step up and admit their mistakes. Furthermore, politicians have to find the courage to pressure giants such as BP and major federal agencies into action. Many people are under a great deal of pressure to end this tragedy. Even under such a strain, they have shown a great moral strength in their determination to find a solution. Russia Cooperation Scenario Leads to cooperation with Russia in the arctic Russel ’14 (Daniel, 5-2-14, “Letter: Arctic oil spill response depends on cooperation with Russia,” Alaska Dispatch News, http://www.adn.com/node/1586771) //ER A great article by Jennifer A. Dlouhy of Hearst Newspapers in ADN on April 24 stated, “United States is ill prepared to tackle oil spills in the Arctic … the National Research Council reported.” It stated, “Extreme weather conditions and sparse infrastructure … more than 1,000 miles from the nearest deep-water port would complicate any broad emergency response. Ice in those remote oceans can trap pockets of oil, locking it beyond the reach of conventional cleanup equipment and preventing it from naturally breaking down.” Already, Shell has stopped operations there following marine mishaps. Near-term, no drilling in Arctic waters is possible, without reliance on an existing fleet of Russian icebreakers during spill emergencies. To boost our ability to tackle spills there, and to provide adequate year-round icebreaking capability, I suggest we expand our existing bilateral pact with Russia to include China (now building a huge icebreaker ship) to allow joint Arctic spill and rescue exercises, and research. Instead, placing sanctions against Russia really hurts Alaska and the U.S., and should be reversed.

Mechanisms exist to cooperate with Russia over arctic oil spills – increases security cooperation Alexeev ’14 (Igor, “Russia chooses ‘soft’ approach to the Arctic,” Barents Observer, 2-14-14, http://barentsobserver.com/en/opinion/2014/02/russia-chooses-soft-approach-arctic-14-02) //ER Arctic search and rescue (SAR) operations and oil spill response also demand broader force projection. Not coincidentally the Arctic Council gave special priority to the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement in 2013 and established the areas of SAR responsibility of each state party. SAR operations are impossible without direct involvement of the military and the EMERCOM. As a country that is de facto in full control of the Northern Sea Route and extended continental shelf, including the Lomonosov Ridge, Russia has prepared a set of measures to maintain safety on the open sea. Such deterrent force is a timely and reasonable precaution because fast climate change has intensified the Northern Sea Route (NSR) shipping. Jong-Deog Kim, a division director at the South Korean Maritime Institute, predicted that traffic between Europe and Asia along the NSR will grow by 6.5% a year and could potentially account for a quarter of all cargo traffic by 2030. A plan to control oil pollution risks in Russia’s future area of responsibility is currently being developed in close cooperation with specialists from Norway. The Arctic Council oil pollution task force meeting in January, 2014 was one of the latest examples of productive work in this vital sphere. Both Statoil (Norway) and Rosneft (Russia) expressed interest in oil spill regulations. Another promising initiative was the creation of a new circumpolar business forum called the Arctic Economic Council (AEC) on the basis of The Task Force to Facilitate the Circumpolar Business Forum (TFCBF) in December, 2013. Canadian journalists stress the fact that in the light of recent military buildup the problem of the overlapping Arctic claims of Russia and Canada may “send wrong message”. Deeper analysis of political environment in the High North shows that the issue of Arctic “land grab” is highly exaggerated. All UN procedures on the matter that include the necessary legal justification to support Russia’s Arctic claim will be completed by the end of 2014, so there is no territorial dispute. The claim is backed by the detailed mapping necessary to support the bid. Russian scientists completed several geological survey expeditions and have been gathering evidence to meet the UN Commission’s criteria since 2001. Ottawa is trying to catch up with other littoral states and create some room for diplomatic maneuvering [2]. Canada lags behind other Arctic stakeholders, Norway and Russia, in Northern economic development, believes John Higginbotham, a senior fellow at Carleton University who focuses on Arctic research. Mostly due to domestic political situation, Canadian leaders have made a number of ambitious statements, for instance, issued a Canadian passport for Santa Claus and included the symbolic North Pole in Canada’s territorial claim. Nevertheless, such statements are mostly intended for domestic audience and should not be interpreted as a sign of conflict potential. Canada and Russia enjoy very good relations on the Arctic, a view that was confirmed by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird in a recent interview. Ottawa hosted the meeting of the Task Force on the Arctic and the North under the Canadian-Russian Intergovernmental Economic Commission resulted in signing of a bilateral cooperation plan. Existing international law framework and forums like the Arctic Chiefs of Defense Staff Conference provide all the necessary mechanisms to treat and resolve all overlapping claims on the basis of negotiations. In any case, there is no need for screaming headlines about “the new cold war”. Recent examples of economic cooperation prove that business has become a gateway to regional political accord, debunking popular myths about the race for resources in the Arctic.

Russian cooperation solves a laundry list of impacts Ivanov ’14 - President of the Russian International Affairs Council and former Russian Foreign Minister (1998-2004). He is also a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MGIMO- University), a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), and author of monographs and articles on the history of Russian international relations and foreign policy (Igor, “The US and Russia need each other now more than ever”, 7/17/14, Russia Direct, http://www.russia-direct.org/content/us-and-russia-need-each-other-now-more-ever) //CW The revival of the phantoms and phobias of this bygone era could be ascribed, on both sides of the conflict, to the heightened sense of emotion inherent in any serious international crisis. But the worry is that such negative political rhetoric has an unpleasant tendency to morph into political practice. Already we see that Russian-U.S. cooperation is slowing, contacts at different levels are breaking off, and the edifice of bilateral interplay between Russia and the U.S., fragile at the best of times, is now crumblin g. This dangerous trend is fraught with trouble for both sides and the wider world, too. First of all, the idea that during a crisis contact should be minimized is simply absurd. On the contrary, it is in times of crisis that dialogue is needed more than ever, since without dialogue no agreement can be reached, not even in theory. And dialogue is required not only between presidents and foreign ministers, but between lower-level officials from a wide range of departments and agencies on both sides. Dialogue is necessary at the level of parliamentarians, independent analytical centers, media, civil society, and the private sector. Such intensive dialogue has the ability not only to dampen the political tensions and stem the flow of radical sentiment; across various platforms it can also engender practical solutions that often elude government leaders and ministers during their inevitably short meetings and phone calls. As for the claim that Russia can survive perfectly well without the U.S., and vice versa, there is an obvious need to clarify what is meant by the phrase “survive perfectly well.” Economic ties between the countries are not the be-all and end-all for either. And it goes without saying that a lack of strategic interaction between the Kremlin and the White House will not automatically lead to nuclear war. And it is long understood that the new polycentric world does not rotate around the Moscow-Washington axis like in the second half of the last century. Nonetheless, there is hardly anyone who would deny that the moratorium on Russian-U.S. cooperation jeopardizes the solution of a wide variety of international issues, while other problems will prove insurmountable. This applies to regional crises and nuclear non-proliferation; to the fight against international terrorism and drug trafficking; to the management of natural resources and global migration; to space exploration and international cooperation in the Arctic; to the reform of international organizations and the creation of new international regimes, and to other highly acute problems facing the global community today. Despite the seriousness of the Ukrainian crisis, it is by no means the only one on the global agenda. And to hang the entire spectrum of bilateral Russian-U.S. relations on just one — albeit very dramatic — international event would be shortsighted, to say the least. It is sometimes held that to continue dialogue in a time of crisis is a sign of weakness. A readiness to talk supposedly sends out the wrong signal to the other side and implicitly demonstrates a willingness to make concessions. As a diplomat with ample experience, I can state with certainty that this is not so. The very fact of being open to dialogue does not signify readiness to give ground. On the contrary, only through dialogue is it possible to persuade the opposing side to change its position, by laying out the logic of one’s argument and the clarity of one’s vision. History shows that winding up contacts and slapping on restrictions and sanctions rarely leads to a successful resolution of crisis situations. Any crisis is a test for all concerned. Will the sides have the presence of mind not to burn bridges or succumb to rushes of emotion, but rather, to look beyond short-term tactical victories and defeats towards the long-term consequences? It is sincerely hoped that Russia and the U.S. will survive this test with minimal losses to themselves and the rest of the world.

Any conflict leads to nuclear war – coop key to prevent competition Huebert ’07 - Associate Professor of Political Science & the Strategic Studies Program at the University of Calgary, (Rob, “Appendix 4, Canada and the Circumpolar World: Meeting the Challenges of Cooperation into the Twenty-First Century: A Critique of Chapter 4 – “Post-Cold War Cooperation in the Arctic: From Interstate Conflict to New Agendas for Security.”’, 2007, http://www.carc.org/calgary/a4.htm) //CW The potential for an accidental nuclear war remains as a threat to the Arctic regions. On January 25, 1995 Boris Yeltsin activated his "nuclear briefcase" when Russian radar detected a rocket launch from somewhere off the Norwegian coast. The rocket was first thought to be headed towards Moscow, but eventually veered away from Russian territory. The rocket was in fact an American scientific probe sent to examine the northern lights. The Norwegians had informed the Russians of the launch, but mis-communications had resulted in the failure of the message to reach the proper Russian officials. (4) This incident, while hopefully rare, indicates that the potential for nuclear misunderstanding remains as real as ever. In addition to the Russian Government's perception of a military threat posed by the United States, as evidenced by the continuing weapons programme in Russia and the continued threat of accidental nuclear war, some American policy-makers are perceiving an increased military threat from Russia. In particular, they are questioning the assistance provided to the Russians for the purpose of decommissioning their older nuclear submarines. (5) They are concerned that such programmes are subsidizing the Russian modernization of their submarine fleets. However, the current administration does not share this point of view. Nevertheless, it is necessary to recognize that the American leadership is bound to be disturbed if, on the one hand, the Russians continue to plead poverty when decommissioning their older submarines while, on the other hand, they continue to build the Borei class.

Great Power War SIEFF ’09 – United Press International Senior News Analyst (MARTIN, “Defense Focus: Warming wars -- Part 4”, 3/9/09, United Press International, http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2009/03/06/Russia-flexes-muscle-over-arctic-oil-and-gas- treasures/UPI-93571236356510) //CW No one expects a nuclear war to break out over the arctic. But increasingly large-scale shows of force by Russia, and by NATO member states in retaliation, look likely. Territorial land grabs should not be ruled out in the future. Whenever really valuable strategic resources -- especially oil and gas -- are found around the world, great power collisions, intrigues, conflicts by and other maneuvers always follow. Global warming has brought these mischievous and often dangerous games to the previously peaceful arctic. Tech Scenario Oil spills spur environmental tech investment Wickham ’12 (Chris, 11-2-12, “Pressure builds for better oil spill clean-up technology,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-science-oilspill-idUSBRE8A10NP20121102)//ER (Reuters) - With oil becoming scarcer and more expensive, the economics of the industry may finally tip in favor of one of the most neglected areas of its business - the technology for cleaning up oil spills. Despite efforts by scientists to find new and more effective ways to deal with spilt oil, there has been little fundamental change in the technology in the two decades since the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster that spilled 750,000 barrels of oil into Prince William Sound in Alaska. But as oil companies push into the environmentally pristine Arctic and deeper waters elsewhere, the pressure on them to demonstrate they can quickly mop up spilt oil will increase. Big spills like BP PLC's 2010 disaster in the Gulf of Mexico usually trigger a flurry of research, much like the acceleration in weapons technology in wartime, but history shows that industry and government enthusiasm quickly fades. That loss of momentum could prove expensive. BP has already spent $14 billion on clean-up operations, paid out over $8 billion in claims and is offering a further $7.8 billion in settlement to those affected by the disaster. ENTER THE SCIENTISTS A pair of materials researchers from Pennsylvania State University have come up with a novel gel that can absorb 40 times its own weight in oil and forms a soft solid that is strong enough to be scooped up and fed straight into a refinery to recover the oil. The polymer developed by Mike Chung and Xuepei Yuan only interacted with oil in tests and the swelled gel contained no water, which solves the sticky problem of separating spilt crude from the water it pollutes. Chung says existing absorbers like straw, and even corn cobs, can only hold about five times their own weight. They also pick up water along with the oil and become waste that has to be buried in special landfills or burned. The Penn State scientists estimate their polymer gel could be produced on a large scale for $2 a pound, which is enough to recover more than five gallons of spilled oil worth roughly $12 based on a barrel price of $80. "Had this material been applied to the top of the leaking well head in the Gulf of Mexico during the 2010 spill, this... could have effectively transformed the gushing brown oil into a floating gel for easy collection and minimized the pollution consequences," the scientists said in their research paper on the new material. Rival teams have applied nanotechnology to the problem to produce ultra-lightweight sponges that are oleophilic and hydrophobic - they love oil but repel water. Daniel Hashim and colleagues at Rice University in Houston have found a way to turn carbon nanotubes - atom-thick sheets of carbon rolled into cylinders - into a sponge material that sucks up oil and can either be squeezed or burned to remove it. In either case the fire-resistant sponge can be re-used. Hashim told Reuters he has some seed capital from companies and individual investors to develop the technology but there are plenty of hurdles ahead. Aside from the need to develop a system to deploy the sponge material into an oil spill, "the most significant barrier is equipment cost associated with the scale- up process," he said. If those hurdles can be overcome, the material could be useful in the Arctic because it retains its sponginess even in extreme cold. Even celebrities are getting in on the act. In June this year, a U.S. jury ruled in favor of actor Kevin Costner in a lawsuit in which fellow actor Stephen Baldwin accused him of cheating in a multimillion dollar deal to sell oil clean-up devices to BP after the Gulf of Mexico spill. FLASH IN THE PAN Some industry insiders are candid about the problem. Writing in the Journal of Petroleum Technology in September, Michael Cortez, BP's manager of oil spill response technology, and his deputy Hunter Rowe warned the research push since the Gulf disaster could be short-lived. The industry has ramped up funding to improve response technology after other major spills, they said. "In all instances, however, after a few years of progress, conditions changed in the industry because of oil price volatility and other economic events, and spill response technology development and funding returned to previous levels." More than twenty years after Exxon Valdez, when BP's Macondo well spewed out an estimated 5 million barrels into the sea, the flotilla attacking the slick was still using floating booms to contain it, specially adapted ships that pick it up by skimming the surface of the water, and controversial chemical dispersants. There have been advances, not least in the gadgetry for tracking and imaging spills and deploying the ships. The booms are better designed, the skimmers are more efficient and the dispersants less toxic. Some in the industry think this is enough. "We believe the current technology we have more than meets the need," said Simon Henry, finance director of Royal Dutch Shell, when asked by Reuters whether the company was increasing research spending as it pushes exploration into the Arctic. Shell, which is Europe's top oil company, was forced to suspend the hunt for oil in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska this year after a giant metal box designed to help contain the oil in the event of a well blowout, was damaged during tests. "We put most of our effort into ensuring there isn't a spill in the first place," said Henry, adding that a series of barriers, including the blowout preventer that sits on the sea floor at the well-head, are there to guard against "a very, very unlikely event". SENSE OF URGENCY Cortez and Rowe from BP argue that exploration in harsher and more remote environments calls for more cutting-edge spill response technology. "The key to closing technology gaps and enhancing current technologies is to prevent the sense of urgency from being diminished," they said in their journal article. Scientists are busy coming up with answers but in the end it will be the will of the oil industry and pressure from governments that determines how far and how fast these new technologies are taken up. As for the novel oil-absorbing gel, Mike Chung is still waiting for the industry to call. "There is a lot of interest in Petrogel technology for oil spill cleanup and recovery, but not from major oil companies," he told Reuters. (Additional reporting by Andrew Callus; Editing by xxx) Oil Spills Bad Generic

Oil spills are environmentally destructive EPA no date – (“Wildlife and Oil Spills”, Office of Emergency and Remedial Response, P.21)//JFHH MOST BIOLOGICAL communities are susceptible to the effects of oil spills. Plant communities on land, marsh grasses in estuaries, and kelp beds in the ocean; microscopic plants and animals; and larger animals, such as fish, amphibians and reptiles, birds, and mammals, are subject to contact, smothering, toxicity, and the chronic long-term effects that may result from the physical and chemical properties of the spilled oil. The primary effects of oil contamination include loss of the insulative capability of feathers and fur which can lead to hypothermia; dehydration resulting from lack of uncontaminated water; stomach and intestinal disorders and destruction of red blood cells resulting from ingestion of oil; pneumonia resulting from inhalation of oil vapors; skin and eye irritation from direct contact with oil; and impaired reproduction . Animals can also suffer during capture and rehabilitation operations; potential ailments include infectious diseases , skin problems , joint swellings , and lesions . In addition, eggs and juveniles are particularly susceptible to contamination from oil. Very small quantities of oil on bird eggs may result in the death of embryos. Fish Scenario

Oil Spills hurt fish EPA no date – (“Wildlife and Oil Spills”, Office of Emergency and Remedial Response, P.21- 22)//JFHH Fish may be exposed to spilled oil in different ways. They may come into direct contact and contaminate their gills; the water column may contain toxic and volatile components of oil that may be absorbed by their eggs, larvae, and juvenile stages; and they may eat contaminated food. Fish that are exposed to oil may suffer from changes in heart and respiratory rate, enlarged livers, reduced growth, fin erosion, a variety of biochemical and cellular changes, and reproductive and behavioral responses. Chronic exposure to some chemicals found in oil may cause genetic abnormalities or cancer in sensitive species. If chemicals such as dispersants are used to respond to a spill, there may be an increased potential for tainting of fish and shellfish by increasing the concentration of oil in the water column. This can affect humans in areas that have commercial and recreational fisheries. (Chapter three discusses dispersants and other alternative oil spill response techniques.) Sperm Whales Scenario Endangers sperm whales Than ’10 (Ker, national geographic news, “Oil Spill to Wipe Out Gulf's Sperm Whales?,” National Geographic Daily News, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100521- science-environment-gulf-mexico-oil-spill-sperm-whales/) //ER If the Gulf of Mexico oil spill kills just three sperm whales, it could seriously endanger the long- term survival of the Gulf's native population, scientists say. Right now between 1,400 and 1,660 sperm whales live year-round in the Gulf of Mexico, making up a distinct population from other groups, in which males make yearly migrations. All sperm whales are considered endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. But the Gulf of Mexico population is thought to be especially vulnerable due to its relatively small size. The whales are now at risk from the ongoing Deepwater Horizon oil spill, because they are likely to ingest or inhale toxic crude and noxious oil fumes. (See pictures of the oil seeping into Louisiana marshes.) "We know there's going to be some [oil] exposure, and we know there's an endangered species. If you put those two thing together, there is reason for concern," said Celine Godard-Codding, an environmental toxicologist at Texas Tech University. A 2009 stock assessment report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated that the potential biological removal, or PBR, level for the Gulf of Mexico population is three. That means the whales' long-term survival is at risk if, in addition to natural deaths, three sperm whales a year are killed or removed by human causes. The loss of a handful of whales each year can impact a population of hundreds, because sperm whales— especially females—require a very long time to reach sexual maturity. Females then give birth to just three or four calves during their entire lifetimes. "They're like humans. Most of the human population is not going to have six kids at once and do that every year," Godard-Codding said. "As soon as we get to the level of three deaths caused by human interaction—and this would include the oil spill—that would jeopardize that particular sperm whale population." Whales May Be Choked, Drowned, and Poisoned Oil spills can affect sperm whales and other cetaceans, including dolphins, in a number of ways. For starters, the marine mammals have to surface to breathe, and if they come up through an oil slick, they can suck the toxic substance into their lungs. Also, the fumes on the surface of the water after a recent spill can be powerful enough to knock out full-grown whales, causing them to drown. (Read an eyewitness account of smelling the Gulf oil spill.) Finally, the oil can taint the toothed whales' prey —fish and —affecting the whales' diets and hurting their chances of raising healthy calves. (See pictures of a sperm whale eating a giant squid.) "The chemicals in the oil product that move up through the food web are a great concern for us," said Teri Rowles, coordinator of NOAA's marine-mammal health and stranding response program. Previous studies have shown that at least some of the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales are known to hang around where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig was located before it exploded on April 20, triggering the spill. "Between 2000 and 2005, about 300 [sperm] whales were seen on a consistent basis right in that area," Texas Tech's Godard-Codding said. AT: Bioremediation Microbes lead to increased ocean CO2 while also solving detrimental impacts of oil Biello ’10 (David, Scientific American, “Slick Solution: How Microbes Will Clean Up the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” 5-25-10, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how- microbes-clean-up-oil-spills/) //ER Just like your automobile, these marine-dwelling bacteria and fungi use the hydrocarbons as fuel— and emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) as a result. In essence, the microbes break down the ring structures of the hydrocarbons in seaborne oil using enzymes and oxygen in the seawater. The end result is ancient oil turned into modern-day bacterial biomass—populations can grow exponentially in days. "Down in the Gulf of Mexico there is an indigenous population [of microbes] adapted to oil from so much marine traffic and daily spills. Oil is not new," says Lee, who has also been monitoring the plumes of oil beneath the surface. "There are so many natural seeps around the world that if it wasn't for microbes we would have a lot of oil in the oceans ." Already, measurements of oxygen depletion of as much as 30 percent in the Gulf of Mexico seawater suggest that the microbes are hard at work eating oil. "I take the 30 percent depletion of oxygen in water near the oil as indicating bacterial degradation," Atlas says. That happens best near the surface, whether at land or sea, where warm-water bacteria such as Thalassolituus oleivorans can thrive; colder, deeper waters inhibit microbial growth. "Metabolism slows by about a factor of two or three for every 10 degree[s] Celsius you drop in temperature," notes biogeochemist David Valentine of the University of California, Santa Barbara, who just received funding from the National Science Foundation to characterize the microbial response to the ongoing oil spill. "The deeper stuff, that's going to happen very slowly because the temperature is so low." Unfortunately, that's exactly where some of the Deepwater Horizon oil seems to be ending up. "They saw the oil at 800 to 1,400 meters depth," says microbial ecologist Andreas Teske of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, whose graduate student Luke McKay was on the research vessel Pelican that first reported such subsurface plumes—as predicted by small- scale experiments, such as the U.S. Minerals Management Services Project "Deep Spill". "It is either at the surface or hanging in the water column and possibly sinking down to the sediment." Yet, microbes are the only process to break down the oil deeper in the water, far away from physical processes on the surface such as evaporation or waves. "The deep waters are dominantly microbial" when it comes to oil degradation, although these communities are not as well studied as those at the surface, notes microbial geochemist Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia. "As long as there is oxygen around, it will get chewed up." To understand how the microbes will work and how quickly, however, will require a better understanding of exactly how much oil is out there. "It's a function of size, and we don't know size," Joye says. "We need to know how much oil is leaking out. Without that information we can't begin to make any kind of calculation of potential oxygen demand or anything else." BP now admits that its original estimate of roughly 200,000 gallons per day was far too low without providing an alternative; independent experts have offered estimates as high as four million gallons per day. It is possible to add fertilizers, such as iron, nitrogen and phosphorus, to stimulate the growth of such bacteria, an approach used to speed up microbial activity in the sediment along the Alaska coast after the Exxon-Valdez spill. "We saw a three to five times increase in rate of biodegradation," Atlas says, suggesting the technique might prove effective along the oil-inundated Louisiana coast as well. "It was hundreds of miles of shoreline, the largest bioremediation project ever."

***Ocean Acidification Good / Bad *** Impact Defense Generic

Not even the worst possible scenario would be bad Idso and Ferguson ‘9 (Craig, Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Robert, President of Science and Public Policy Institute, “Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems,” 2009, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/acidification.pdf) //ER These several findings, according to Tunnicliffe et al., attest to "the extent to which long-term adaptation can develop tolerance to extreme conditions." And just how extreme were the conditions in which the mussels lived? Referring back to the study of Caldeira and Wickett (2003) who calculated a 0.7 unit pH decline from 8.1 to 7.4 by the year 2300, considering the much lower pH range in which the mussels studied by Tunnicliffe et al. and the many species studied by Limen and Juniper were living (5.36 to 7.29), there is ample reason to believe that even the worst case atmospheric CO2-induced acidification scenario that can possibly be conceived would not prove a major detriment to most calcifying sea life. Consequently, what will likely happen in the real world should be no problem at all. Consequently, based on the observations presented above, claims of impending marine species extinctions due to increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration do not appear to be supported by real-world evidence. In fact, they are typically refuted by it.

At worst marine life will adapt – but CO2 overall is better for coral reefs Idso ’10 (Craig D. Idso, Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “‘ACID TEST: THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION’ – A NEW PROPAGANDA FILM BY THE NATIONAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL FAILS THE ACID TEST OF REAL WORLD DATA,” 2010, http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/26709.pdf) //ER OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND CORAL CALCIFICATION: LIFE FINDS A WAY Over sixty years ago, Kawaguti and Sakumoto (1948) illustrated the importance of photosynthesis in the construction of coral reefs. Specifically, they analyzed numerous data sets recorded in earlier publications, demonstrating that coral calcification rates are considerably higher in the daylight (when photosynthesis by coral symbionts occurs) than they are in the dark (when the symbionts lose carbon via respiration). A number of more modern studies have also demonstrated that symbiont photosynthesis enhances coral calcification (Barnes and Chalker, 1990; Yamashiro, 1995); and they have further demonstrated that long- term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef (Frankignoulle et al., 1996; Gattuso et aI., 1996, 1999). In fact, the work of Muscatine (1990) suggests that “the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically expensive process of calcification” (Hoegh- Guldberg, 1999). Consequently, if an anthropogenic-induced increase in the transfer of CO2 from the atmosphere to the world’s oceans, i.e., hydrospheric CO2 enrichment, were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis as atmospheric CO2 enrichment does for essentially all terrestrial plants (Kimball, 1983; ldso, 1992; Idso and Idso, 1994) — it is likely that coral calcification rates would also increase. Another consequence of this phenomenon is that more robustly growing zooxanthellae may take up more of the metabolic waste products of the coral host, which, if present in too great quantities, can prove detrimental to the health of the host, as well as the health of the entire coral plant-animal assemblage (Yonge, 1968; Crossland and Barnes, 1974). There are also a number of other substances that are known to directly interfere with calcium carbonate precipitation; and they too can be actively removed from the water by coral symbionts in much the same way that symbionts remove host waste products (Simkiss, 1964). More importantly, perhaps, a greater amount of symbiont-produced photosynthates may provide more “fuel” for the active transport processes involved in coral calcification (Chalker and Taylor, 1975), as well as more raw materials for the synthesis of the coral organic matrix (Wainwright, 1963; Muscatine, 1967; Battey and Patton, 1984). Finally, the photosynthetic process helps to maintain a healthy aerobic or oxic environment for the optimal growth of the coral animals (Rinkevich and Loya, 1984; Rands et aI., 1992); and greater C02-induced rates of symbiont photosynthesis would enhance this important “environmental protection” activity. In light of these several observations and their logical implications, with ever more CO2 going into the air, driving ever more CO2 into the oceans, increasingly greater rates of coral symbiont photosynthesis would be expected to be observed, all else being equal. And this phenomenon, in turn, should increasingly enhance all of the many positive photosynthetic-dependent phenomena described above and thereby increase coral calcification rates. Furthermore, it should increase these rates well beyond the point of overpowering the modest negative effect of the purely chemical consequences of elevated dissolved CO2 on ocean pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. However, arriving at these conclusions is not as simple as it sounds. For one thing, although many types of marine plant life do indeed respond to hydrospheric CO2 enrichment (Raven et aI., 1985) — including seagrasses (Zimmerman et ai, 1997), certain diatoms (Riebesell et aI., 1993; Chen and Gao, 2004; Sobrino et aI., 2008), macroalgae (Borowitzka and Larkum, 1976; Gao et aI., 1993), and microalgae or phytoplankton (Raven, 1991; Nimer and Merrett, 1993) — the photosynthesis of many marine autotrophs is normally not considered to be carbon-limited, because of the large supply of bicarbonate in the world’s oceans (Raven, 1997). However, as Gattuso et aI. (1999) explain, this situation is only true for autotrophs that possess an effective carbon- concentrating mechanism; but to swing once again in the other direction, it is also believed that many coral symbionts are of this type (Burns et al., 1983; AI-Moghrabi et al., 1996; Goiran et aL, 1996). Nevertheless, Gattuso et al. (1999) reported that coral zooxanthellae — in a grand example of adaptation — are able to change their mechanism of carbon supply in response to various environmental stimuli. Furthermore, Beardall et al. (1998) suggest that an increased concentration of dissolved CO2, together with an increase in the rate of CO2 generation by bicarbonate dehydration in host cells, may favor a transition to the diffusional mode of carbon supply, which is sensitive to hydrospheric CO2 concentration. Consequently, if such a change in mode of carbon supply were to occur — prompted, perhaps, by hydrospheric CO2 enrichment itself— this shift in CO2 fixation strategy would indeed allow the several biological mechanisms described above to operate to enhance reef calcification rates in response to a rise in the air’s CO2 content. In one final example that demonstrates the importance of biology in driving the physical chemical process of coral calcification, Muscatine et ai. (2005) note that the “photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification,” and that long-term reef calcification rates have generally been observed to rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production, which they say may well be enhanced by increases in the air’s CO2 concentration.

No scenario for extinction Idso ’10 (Craig D. Idso, Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “‘ACID TEST: THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION’ – A NEW PROPAGANDA FILM BY THE NATIONAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL FAILS THE ACID TEST OF REAL WORLD DATA,” 2010, http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/26709.pdf) //ER In conclusion, based on the many real-world observations and laboratory experiments described above, it is clear that recent theoretical claims of impending marine species extinctions, due to increases in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration, have no basis in empirical reality. In fact, these unsupportable contentions are typically refuted by demonstrable facts. As such, the NRDC's portrayal of CO2-induced ocean acidification as a megadisaster-in-the-making is seen, at best, to be a one-sided distortion of the truth or, at worst, a blatant attempt to deceive the public. Surely, the NRDC and the scientists portrayed in their film should have been aware of at least one of the numerous peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not support a catastrophic – or even a problematic – view of the effect of ocean acidification on calcifying marine organisms; and they should have shared that information with the public. If by some slim chance they were not aware, shame on them for not investing the time, energy, and resources needed to fully investigate an issue that has profound significance for the biosphere. And if they did know the results of the studies we have discussed, no one should ever believe a single word they may utter or write in the future. Finally, if there is a lesson to be learned from the materials presented in this document, it is that far too many predictions of CO2-induced catastrophes are looked upon as sure-to-occur, when real-world observations show such doomsday scenarios to be highly unlikely or even virtual impossibilities. The phenomenon of CO2-induced ocean acidification is no different. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not the bane of the biosphere; they are an invaluable boon to the planet’s many life forms.

Ocean Acidification won’t lead to extinction – empirics and accurate lab prove our point WCR 12 – World Climate Report (“Acclimation to Ocean Acidification: Give It Some Time”, World Climate Report, March 29, http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2012/03/29/acclimation-to-ocean-acidification- give-it-some-time/)//JFHH Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels lead to an increasing amount of CO2 being dissolved in the oceans which drives down the oceans’ pH level. This is often referred to as “ocean acidification” and included among the list of ills that energy production from fossil fuels imparts to the environment. Type “ocean acidification” into your Google search and you’ll quickly be confronted with a litany of potential impacts—all bad. The Center for Biological Diversity refers to it as global warming’s “evil twin.” “We mean it this time” our greener friends are saying about this current apocalypse. But is ocean acidification any different than the population bomb , global starvation , acid rain , ozone depletion , global cooling , and global warming —all forecast to cause the end of the world as we know it, and all falling a bit short? It’s beginning to look like the same old same old. In what will come as no surprise to World Climate Report regulars, alarmists are overdoing things just a little. Their biggest mistake comes in assuming that the oceans’ denizens cannot deal either with the pace or the magnitude of the projected changes to the oceans’ chemistry. The more researchers look into this, the more they report findings to the contrary. A large and continually updated annotated and summarized collection of findings which report acclimation and adaptation to “ocean acidification” is maintained at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Spend a little time there and you will come away with a completely different view of the subject than was returned to you in your Google search above. The Center also maintains a digital archive of citations to the relevant primary scientific literature, so you can see for yourself. A new paper just published in the journal Global Change Biology titled “Acclimation to ocean acidification during long-term CO2 exposure in the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa “ is surely soon to be an inductee in the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change database. The authors, Armin U. Form (no relation to the conservative blogger Charles U. Farley) and Ulf Riebesell, are from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel Germany. They introduce the problem: Ocean acidification, often termed ‘the evil twin of global warming’, is caused when the CO2 emitted by human activity dissolves into the oceans. Presently, the ocean takes up about 25% of man- made CO2, which has led to a decrease in seawater pH of 0.1 units since 1800 . By 2100, surface ocean pH values can easily drop by another 0.3–0.4 units. Although there is reasonable certainty about the chemical changes related to ocean acidification, the impacts it may have on marine organisms and ecosystems are still poorly understood. A major gap in our understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on life in the sea is the potential of marine organisms to acclimate and adapt to increasing seawater acidity. Most of our present understanding on the biological impacts of ocean acidification is based on short-term perturbation studies . The last sentence nicely sums up the problem underlying the proclamations of impending catastrophe from “ocean acidification”—that is, there are very few long-term studies of the response of organisms to changing conditions, instead, the vast majority of results come from studies which scoop things up out of the ocean, plop them into an aquarium, jack up the acidity of the water, and watch what for a few days to see what happens. That’s about as far from the real world as you can get , and it’s little wonder that the organisms don’t tend to fare particularly well. Basically, Form and Riebesell follow this same procedure, but in addition to watching what happens over a few days, they maintain vigilance, and follow the response for about 6 months. The organism they are studying is a cold-water coral species, Lophelia pertusa, which they describe as “the most common reef framework-forming and ecosystem engineering cold-water coral with a cosmopolitan distribution.” One reason they chose to look at a cold-water coral is that “cold-water coral reefs are considered the ecosystem most vulnerable to ocean acidification.” What they found was that in an experiment that lasted only 8 days, that the growth rate of the coral was slowed down by the dissolution of extra CO2 into the aquarium water—the more the researchers added CO2 (increasing the acidity and lowering the pH) the worse the corals fared (Figure 1). Figure 1. The growth rate (G) of the coral Lophelia pertusa, in relation to the pH level of the aquarium water after 8 days of exposure (source: Form and Riebesell). In a second experiment in which the coral specimens were exposed to lower pH levels for 178 days, the growth rate did not decline, and in fact, even appeared to increase under the lower pH (more acid) conditions (Figure 2). Figure 2. The growth rate (G) of the coral Lophelia pertusa, in relation to the pH level of the aquarium water after 178 days of exposure (source: Form and Riebesell). Form and Riebesell describe their findings: Growth rates in the long-term experiment (LTE) did not follow the negative trend with increasing pCO2 [decreasing pH] observed in the short-term incubation. Instead, growth rate, which was comparable to that of the control treatment in the short-term experiment, stayed high at elevated CO2 levels… Although not statistically significant, a linear regression analysis reveals an increasing trend of coral growth with rising pCO2 concentration [decreasing pH].* They comment on the importance of longer-term experiments: It is surprising that the ability to tolerate sub-saturated conditions in terms of maintaining calcification rates is not manifested in short-term high CO2 experiments. This could indicate (i) that it takes several days to weeks for Lophelia to activate the metabolic pathways needed to calcify when subjected to sub-saturated waters, or (ii) that triggering the activation of these pathways requires longer-term high CO2/low pH exposure. …The differences in observed responses between short- and long-term exposure experiments highlight the importance of long-term incubation studies allowing for complete acclimation of the test organisms. And they have this to say as to the significance of their findings: This is the first study showing a positive response in calcification to increasing pCO2 for the predominant reef-forming cold-water coral L. pertusa and, to our knowledge, for scleractinian corals in general.** Now, Form and Riebesell are quick to point out that laboratory conditions do not necessarily mimic the real world environment and that therefore their results are only the first steps in an extended series of observations and experiments that would be required to establish the in situ response of the corals in their ocean environment and its changing conditions. And we are sure that they are right about this. But the larger lesson is this: Don’t jump to conclusions based on an inadequate analysis of complex systems . If everyone followed this advice, our future would certainly appear much less “alarming.”

Acidification Slow and Stable

Ocean acidification will be slow and stable, proven by 1000 studies. Nova, 11 – received a Bachelor of Science first class and won the FH Faulding and the Swan Brewery prizes at the University of Western Australia, majored in microbiology, molecular biology; received a Graduate Certificate in Scientific Communication from the Australian National University in 1989 (Jo, “Ocean Acidification — a little bit less alkalinity could be a good thing,” Sept. 11, http://joannenova.com.au/2011/09/ocean-acidification-a-little-bit-less- alkalinity-could-be-a-good-thing/)//vivienne Studies of how marine life copes with less alkaline conditions include many experiments with water at pH values in a range beyond anything that is likely on planet Earth — they go beyond the bounds of what’s possible. There are estimates that the pH of the ocean has shifted about 0.1 pH unit in the last 200 years, yet some studies consider the effects of water that is shifted by 2 or even 4 entire pH units. Four pH units means 10,000 fold change in the concentration of hydrogen ions). That’s a shift so large, it’s not going to occur in the next few thousand years, even under the worst of the worst case scenarios by the most sadistic models. Indeed, it’s virtually impossible for CO2 levels to rise high enough to effect that kind of change, even if we burned every last fossil, every tree, plant microbe, and vaporized life on earth. (Yet still someone thought it was worth studying what would happen if, hypothetically, that happened. Hmm.) 1103 studies on acidification say there’s no need to panic CO2 science has an extraordinary data base of 1103 studies of the effects of “acidification” on marine life. They reason that any change beyond 0.5 pH units is “far far beyond the realms of reality ” even if you are concerned about coral reefs in the year 2300 (see Tans 2009). Even the IPCC’s highest end “scenario A2″ estimate predicts a peak change in the range of 0.6 units by 2300. Many of the headlines forecasting “Death to Reefs” come from studies of ocean water at extreme pH’s that will never occur globally, and that are beyond even what the IPCC is forecasting. Some headlines come from studies of hydrothermal vents where CO2 bubbles up from the ocean floor. Not surprisingly they find changes to marine life near the vents, but then, the pH of these areas ranges right down to 2.8. They are an extreme environment, nothing like what we might expect to convert the worlds oceans too. Marine life, quite happy about a bit more CO2? Studies of growth, calcification, metabolism, fertility and survival show that, actually, if things were a little less alkaline, on average, marine life would benefit. There will be winners and losers, but on the whole, using those five measures of health, the reefs are more likely to have more life on and around them, than they are to shrink. Figure 12. Percent change in the five measured life characteristics (calcification, metabolism, growth, fertility and survival) vs. decline of seawater pH from its present (control treatment) value to ending values extending up to the beginning pH value of "the warped world of the IPCC" for all individual data points falling within this pH decline range. How can this be? First, marine life evolved under conditions where most of the time the world was warmer and had more CO2 in the atmosphere than it does today. Second, like life above the water, life-below-water is based on carbon, and putting more carbon into the water is not necessarily a bad thing. That said, the dots in the graph above represent study results, and the ones below zero tell us there will be some losers, even though there will be more winners (above zer0). Thirdly, watch out for some of the more devastating headlines which also come from studies where researchers changed the pH by tossing hydrochloric acid into the tank. Chlorine, as they say, is not the same as the gas nature breathes — CO2. (The strange thing about the studies with hydrochloric acid, is that it doesn’t seem to be bad as we might have expected– nonetheless, it seems like a dubious practice to use in studying the health of corals.) The Ocean Acidification Database is housed at CO2 science. The graph above is just one of many on their results and conclusions page. The bottom line: Yes, we should watch and monitor the oceans careful. No, there is no chance the Great Barrier Reef will be gone in the next 100 years: 1103 studies show that if the worlds oceans were slightly less basic then marine life as a whole will be slightly more likely to grow, survive, and be fertile. Adaptation

Their data is flawed and does not assume all marine species – adaptation is possible Calosi et al., 13 – Calosi, Rastrick, and Spicer are affiliated with the Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre and the School of Marine Science and Engineering, Lombardi is affiliated with the Marine Ecology Laboratory and the Marine Environment and Sustainable Development Unit ENEA, de Guzman and Schulze are affiliated with the Department of Marine Biology and the Texas A&M University at Galveston, Davidson, Jahnke, and Hardege are affiliated with the Chemical Ecology Group, the School of Biological, Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, and the University of Hull, Giangrande is affiliated with the Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali, and Gambi is affiliated with the Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn and the Laboratory of Functional and Evolutionary Ecology (Piero Calosi, Samuel P. S. Rastrick, Chiara Lombardi, Heidi J. de Guzman, Laura Davidson, Marlene Jahnke, Adriana Giangrande, Jörg D. Hardege, Anja Schulze, John I. Spicer, and Maria- Cristina Gambi, “Adaptation and acclimatization to ocean acidification in marine ectotherms: an in situ transplant experiment with polychaetes at a shallow CO2 vent system,” August 26, The Royal Society, Biological Sciences, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 5 October 2013 vol. 368 no. 1627 20120444)//vivienne Metabolic rate is considered the most fundamental of all biological rates [1]. According to the metabolic theory of ecology, metabolic rates set the rates of resource uptake and allocation to life-history traits (such as growth, reproduction and survival [2]), ultimately controlling ecological processes at all levels of organization [1]. Thus, the ability of an organism to preserve sufficient levels of energy metabolism when exposed to environmental challenges is key to a species' ability to preserve positive life-history traits, its Darwinian fitness, and ultimately its distribution and abundance patterns locally and globally [1,3–7]. Investigations of the effects of elevated pCO2 on ectotherms' metabolic rates have revealed a variety of different responses: from differences among phyla at one extreme [8–10], to differences among related species and populations at the other [11,12]. When exposed to elevated pCO2, a number of taxa exhibit a marked downregulation of their metabolic rate or ‘metabolic depression’ [11,13–17] but this is not ubiquitous. There are examples of upregulation [18–20], and no change in metabolism in response to elevated pCO2 [11,21–24]. It has been proposed that metabolic depression evolved to enable organisms to maintain a balance between energy supply and demand when their physiological machinery may be impaired as a result of environmental challenges [25,26]. Consequently, metabolic depression is considered to be primarily a short-term strategy [27] as, over the long term, it may have high costs in terms of growth, performances, reproductive output and may ultimately affect fitness. Thus, chronic metabolic depression has the potential to limit or prevent colonization of elevated pCO2 environments, and in a future, more acidic ocean to increase the risk of local and global taxa extinction. However, moderate forms of metabolic depression may be sustainable and could be achieved, via adaptation (i.e. selection of phenotypes–genotypes with moderately lower metabolic rates) or acclimatization (i.e. via phenotypic plasticity [28]). Nevertheless, adaptation and acclimatization can have different and important ecological consequences. Unfortunately, the nature and significance of physiological plasticity in marine ectotherms during acclimatization to an elevated pCO2 environment, as well as their potential physiological adaptation to these conditions, remain virtually unexplored (cf. [29]). Such an understanding of when plastic as opposed to genetic changes occur (and vice versa) is crucial if we are to predict how ocean acidification affects species' distribution and abundance patterns, and thus predict the likely responses of marine ectotherms to ongoing climate change. In addition, our interpretation of organisms' metabolic responses to elevated pCO2 is biased by the fact that most species investigated to date are calcifiers. This is important as the overall direction and intensity of metabolic responses to elevated pCO2 are potentially affected by the upregulation of calcium carbon deposition [30–32], as well as the need to alter the biomineralization status of the shell, which may require the production of different organic and inorganic components [33], processes which are to date still poorly understood from a metabolic point of view. Furthermore, phylogenetic independence is rarely accounted for [10,34–37, cf. 38]. Clearly, there is an urgent need to investigate the physiological acclimatory ability and potential for physiological adaptation in a range of species within a group of phylogenetically related, non-calcifying ectotherms. Species can adapt – their evidence is over-hyped Calosi et al., 13 – Calosi, Rastrick, and Spicer are affiliated with the Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre and the School of Marine Science and Engineering, Lombardi is affiliated with the Marine Ecology Laboratory and the Marine Environment and Sustainable Development Unit ENEA, de Guzman and Schulze are affiliated with the Department of Marine Biology and the Texas A&M University at Galveston, Davidson, Jahnke, and Hardege are affiliated with the Chemical Ecology Group, the School of Biological, Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, and the University of Hull, Giangrande is affiliated with the Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali, and Gambi is affiliated with the Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn and the Laboratory of Functional and Evolutionary Ecology (Piero Calosi, Samuel P. S. Rastrick, Chiara Lombardi, Heidi J. de Guzman, Laura Davidson, Marlene Jahnke, Adriana Giangrande, Jörg D. Hardege, Anja Schulze, John I. Spicer, and Maria- Cristina Gambi, “Adaptation and acclimatization to ocean acidification in marine ectotherms: an in situ transplant experiment with polychaetes at a shallow CO2 vent system,” August 26, The Royal Society, Biological Sciences, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 5 October 2013 vol. 368 no. 1627 20120444)//vivienne Previous studies show that unicellular organisms can adapt to elevated pCO2 [79–81]. Our study provides evidence that a marine ectotherm (P. dumerilii) has been able to genetically and physiologically adapt to chronic and elevated levels of pCO2, and supports those studies that have indicated the potential of marine metazoans to adapt to elevated pCO2 [76,82–87]. Furthermore, this adaptation may have occurred over a relatively short geological time. In fact, based on archaeological and historical evidences, the CO2 vent system off Ischia is estimated to be 1850 years old [62]. Although metabolic phenotypic plasticity may be the first ‘mechanism’ of response to preserve positive function levels when exposed to environmental disturbance [28], it often comes at a cost [88,89]. Plastic responses can be accompanied by the reallocation of the available energy budget away from growth and reproduction [30], cf. [90,91]. When the cost becomes too high, the selection of phenotypes better able to cope with elevated pCO2 conditions should be favoured as this is a less ‘expensive’ strategy [76]. Local adaptation leads to the improvement of population physiological performances, thus reducing energy costs of regulation and maintenance, improving an organism's ability to persist locally. However, if adaptation occurs at the expense of genetic diversity, this could lead to a decrease in the performance for other traits (e.g. life-history traits). When evolutionary trade-offs are less costly than phenotypic plastic reshuffling, adaptation should be favoured.

No impact to ocean acidification – species are resilient and can adapt UP, 13 – provided by the University of Plymouth and makes reference to the “Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B” (“Insight into marine life's ability to adapt to climate change,” August 26, Phys, http://phys.org/news/2013-08-insight-marine-life-ability- climate.html)//vivienne A study into marine life around an underwater volcanic vent in the Mediterranean, might hold the key to understanding how some species will be able to survive in increasingly acidic sea water should anthropogenic climate change continue. Researchers have discovered that some species of polychaete worms are able to modify their metabolic rates to better cope with and thrive in waters high in carbon dioxide (CO2), which is otherwise poisonous to other, often closely-related species. The study sheds new light on the robustness of some marine species and the relative resilience of marine biodiversity should atmospheric CO2 continue to cause ocean acidification. A team of scientists led by Plymouth University, and including colleagues from the Naples Zoological Station in Ischia; the Marine Ecology Laboratory ENEA in La Spezia, Italy; the University of Texas Galveston; and the University of Hull, conducted a three-year research project into the potential mechanisms that species of worm polychaetes use to live around the underwater CO2 vent of Ischia in Southern Italy. The researchers collected specimens found in waters characterised by either elevated or low levels of CO2, and placed them in specially- constructed 'transplantation chambers', which were then lowered into areas both within and away from the volcanic vent. They monitored the responses of the worms and found that one of the species that had been living inside the CO2 vent was physiologically and genetically adapted to the acidic conditions, whilst another was able to survive inside the vent by adjusting its metabolism. Project leader Dr Piero Calosi, of Plymouth University's Marine Institute, said: "Previous studies have shown that single-cell algae can genetically adapt to elevated levels of carbon dioxide, but this research has demonstrated that a marine animal can physiologically and genetically adapt to chronic and elevated levels of carbon dioxide. "Furthermore, we show that both plasticity and adaptation are key to preventing some species' from suffering extinction in the face of on-going ocean acidification, and that these two strategies may be largely responsible to defining the fate of marine biodiversity." The results revealed that species normally found inside the CO2 vent were better able to regulate their metabolic rate when exposed to high CO2 conditions, whilst species only found outside the CO2 vent were clearly impaired by acidic waters. In fact, their metabolism either greatly decreased, indicating reduced energy production, or greatly increased, indicating a surge in the basic cost of living, in both cases making life inside the vent unsustainable. Dr Maria-Cristina Gambi, of the Naples Zoological Station in Ischia, explained: "Despite some species showing the ability to metabolically adapt and adjust to the extreme conditions that are found inside the CO2 vents, others appear unable to physiologically cope with such conditions. ''In this sense, our findings could help to explain mass extinctions of the past, and potential extinctions in the future, as well as shed light on the resilience of some species to on-going ocean acidification." The team also found that those species adapted to live inside the CO2 vent showed slightly higher metabolic rates and were much smaller in size – up to 80% smaller – indicating that adaptation came at a cost of energy for growth. Dr Calosi concluded that: ''Ultimately, species' physiological responses to high CO2, as those reported by our study, may have repercussions on their abundance and distribution, and thus on the structure and dynamics of marine communities. This in turn will impact those ecosystem functions that humans rely upon to obtain goods and services from the ocean." The research was funded by a Natural Environment Research Council UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme grant, and an Assemble Marine EU FP7 scheme, and is the first of its kind to bring together both the physiological and genetic evidence for adaptation to elevated pCO2 in a multicellular organism. The findings are published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, online on the 26th of August 2013. Alt Causes

Their evidence does not assume the entire marine ecosystem and doesn’t assume alt causes Godbold and Solan, 13 – Godbold and Solan are affiliated with the Ocean and Earth Science and the National Oceanography Center Southampton; Godbold is a Research Fellow in Coastal Ecology in Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton; Solan a Reader in Marine Ecology and has is BSc Hons, PhD (Jasmin A. and Martin, “Long-term effects of warming and ocean acidification are modified by seasonal variation in species responses and environmental conditions,” August 26, The Royal Society, Biological Sciences, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 5 October 2013 vol. 368 no. 1627 20130186)//vivienne Over the last decade, the impacts of warming and ocean acidification have received considerable attention, and there is a clear consensus that a continued upward trend in these stressors will have far-reaching consequences for the structure and functioning of food webs [10–13]. However, much of the evidence in support of this view stems from experiments that have focused on a restricted number of calcifying (shell-forming) organisms exposed to non-varying conditions [14,15]. These species, including molluscs, echinoderms, corals and coccolithophores, do not necessarily provide a representative indication of the broader ecological impacts of ocean acidification (for counter argument based on the variability of crustacean responses, see [16]), because the declining saturation level for calcium carbonate minerals required to maintain calcite- and aragonite-based shells and skeletons means that these species may be disproportionately negatively affected relative to non-calcifying species [14,15,17,18]. Such a process-orientated focus [19] understates the importance of species that do not have calcified shells or skeletons and ignores other critical responses to climatic forcing, such as change in behaviour or ecological role [20], that can influence the mediation of many ecosystem functions [21,22] or, indeed, the structure of entire ecosystems [23,24]. Establishing an overview, however, has been complicated by the variability in documented responses, not least because of differences in timing (life stage, season) and context (habitat condition, exposure history) between investigations, but the influence of these aspects has not been considered. Without a more holistic consideration of the variety and timing of responses to climate change [25,26], summarizing the most likely net response across multiple habitats will remain challenging [27] and subject to a great deal of uncertainty [12], and could lead to misleading conclusions. Provision of more accurate projections of the ecological consequences of warming and ocean acidification requires an improved understanding of longer term processes that moderate the susceptibility of species to a changing environment [28,29]. Much of the currently available evidence stems from short-term experimental manipulations, typically performed over days to weeks [30], that do not allow the development of diachronic response mechanisms, such as acclimation, adaptation [29,31,32], physiological or behavioural compensatory mechanisms linked to biodiversity–environmental context and/or seasonal timing [16,33,34]. These emergent properties of ecological communities can radically alter (perceived or realized) species vulnerabilities and ecosystem responses to climatic forcing and, when considered collectively, have the potential to lead to scenarios that differ from those suggested by current projections [35]. Form & Riebesell [29], for example, show that calcification rates in the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa decrease after 8 days of exposure to high CO2 but increase over the medium term (6 months), because compensatory metabolic pathways may take extended periods of time to become established, depending on other factors such as life cycle phase [28] or exposure history [36]. These compensatory mechanisms are only identifiable during prolonged observations, although they may not be sustainable without significant cost to other physiological (e.g. muscle depletion [37], intestinal base loss [38]) or behavioural functions (e.g. predator avoidance [39]). One way to account for such feedback mechanisms is to extend the duration of experiments or observations, but doing so raises the probability of including other processes that operate over longer timescales and have the potential to modify the outcome. For example, at different times of the year or life cycle [40], species sensitivities to warming and CO2 may integrate in such a way that elevated CO2 levels may enhance the sensitivity of organisms to their thermal extremes or vice versa [41,42], changing the way in which species respond to a given level of climatic forcing. Indeed, the synergistic effects of warming and ocean acidification on biological process rates, species behaviour and ecosystem functioning [43–48] demonstrate strong interdependencies between climatic forcing and a range of variables that are known to vary over time, including differences in species physiology [49–51], behaviour [52], process rates [51,53], community composition [44], ecosystem structure [54] and other ecosystem properties (e.g. food availability [55], irradiance [56]) that influence species performance. How spatio-temporal variability in local environmental conditions and species composition will affect the response of ecosystems represents a significant knowledge gap; the paucity of longer term experiments and lack of consideration of such response modifiers are likely to go some way in explaining apparently divergent results between studies [16]. Multiple alt causes – fossil fuels Van Dien and Stone, 13 – Kevin is a Public Programs Manager at Climate Interpreter and Debbi is a contributor at Climate Interepreter (Kevin and Debbi, “Humans can take action to slow the process of ocean acidification,” December 18, Climate Interpreter, http://climateinterpreter.org/content/humans-can-take-action-slow-process-ocean- acidification)//vivienne Now that we know some of the anthropogenic sources of CO2 in the atmosphere, what can we do about it? All of the things we have been doing since the industrial revolution to put CO2 into the atmosphere should be examined to find more efficient uses. There are many solutions available, and there are things that people can do on almost any level to make an impact. People should understand that some of these changes need to be made on an individual basis, some on the community level, and all the way up to corporations, governments and global organizations. The burning of fossil fuels is the major contributor to ocean acidification. Fossil fuels are burned to produce energy, and to make vehicles run. One of the easiest ways for people to have a positive impact on an individual level is to use less energy. Many people already think of energy as electricity, so convince people that conserving electricity will save them money and will also reduce the amount of energy their power plant needs to produce. But fossil fuels are also burned in factories to make products that we use every day. The saying "reduce, re-use, recycle" also applies to the ocean acidification crisis. Using less products will lead to a decreased demand to create new product out of new materials. Every person should be able to think of a way they can consume less in their daily lives. Transportation is a huge concern, and is one that is difficult for people to make adjustments to. Driving less and using public transportation may not be a realistic option for everyone, but people can make sure their automobiles run efficiently by keeping the tires properly inflated, getting their cars serviced regularly, and by choosing fuel efficient vehicles. There are many resources listed below which offer some tips, and also offer ways to engage people in learning about their daily energy choices. Protecting wildlife has many benefits, but most people don't know that it's an important factor in how the Earth responds to climate change. Natural places are very resilient to change, but now there are far fewer natural places in most areas. It is important to preserve existing habitats and to identify more areas that need protection. Visiting natural parks is a great way to experience nature, but also provides funding for protecting those areas. Monitoring pollution and nutrient run-off helps protect coral reefs, so they can be healthy enough to withstand global warming and ocean acidification. Purchasing products that are grown in coexistence with forests and rainforests decreases the need for deforestation for agriculture. Even eating sustainable seafood can make a difference, because healthy fish populations are essential to the overall success of the coral reefs and the ocean. Since ocean acidification is yet another side effect of excess CO2, there are many things that people are already doing that help make a difference. In short, most things that are considered "green" options, or are environmentally friendly, will also help fight the effects of ocean acidification. Author Indict

The most qualified author says your authors are all lying and that there is absolutely no impact Starck 7*– a Pioneer in investigation of coral reefs. He has a PhD in Marine Science. He has over 40 years of experience in reef studies and is the founder of most of what we know about reef biology. He was among the first to adapt and use SLR cameras and electronic flash underwater and developed the optical dome port which is now used for underwater photography (Walter, “The Eco-salvation Industry and AGW”, P. 1-5)//JFHH *There is no date, but the last cited study is 2007 When an environmental concern receives widespread public attention increased funding for research soon follows. Research targeted at investigating a purported problem never finds it to be unimportant or non-existent. Almost invariably evidence is produced to indicate it is more widespread, intense or complicated than previously thought and further research is called for. Environmental activists likewise recognise that publicity generates support and they have become adept at campaigns designed to attract media attention while offering the public a bargain basement purchase of righteousness through donation to a good cause free of the moral complexities which so often attend genuine charity. Environmental threats which endanger charismatic creatures and/or iconic natural places of great beauty are certain to attract media attention and public concern resulting in generous support for research and donations to environmental organizations purporting to save them. Saving the Great Barrier Reef, the Cape York Wilderness, the Queensland rainforest, Kakadu and the Kimberlies now supports a billion dollar industry of researchers , administrators and environmental organizations . While a few real problems do exist, most of the money and effort are predicated on hypothetical possibilities for which there is no real evidence but they are simply things that might be or could happen. As the preeminent natural icon of Australia, the Great Barrier Reef has been a favoured concern for the eco-salvation Industry. For more than four decades, not a year has passed without media announcements of dire threats to the reef. Some have been new, others old ones, refurbished or just reiterated. Always, the source is presented as an “ expert”. Reef doomscrying has provided attention, acclaim and generous support for what has become a virtual guild of researchers predicting the reef’s immanent demise. Although they profess great concern, they have no interest in any possibility a problem may not be as bad as is feared . In fact, they rather fiercely reject any such suggestion; which seems quite incongruous with genuine concern Over the years, coral-eating starfish , oil pollution , overfishing , fertilizer runoff , silt , agrichemicals , sewerage , anchor damage , people walking on the reef , ship groundings and global warming have been proclaimed to be serious threats to the reef. None of these prophecies of doom, however, have become real and the GBR continues to be a vast and essentially pristine natural region where measurable human effects remain rare or trivial. Still, unlike the boy who cried ‘Wolf!’, or Chicken Little who claimed the sky was falling, GBR doomscrying never seems to lose credibility . The big problem for truth and reality in this regard is that the reef is largely inaccessible. It’s somewhere over the horizon, it’s underwater and it’s vast. Anyone can claim anything and who’s to know differently? The strong El Niño event of 1998 resulted in unusually high surface water temperatures and widespread coral bleaching in many locations around the world. On the GBR some bleaching occurred but the effect was less severe than in many other areas. Despite the fact that El Niño events are defined by high sea surface temperatures and the strength of this one had numerous precedents over thousands of years it was quickly claimed by AGW advocates to be a consequence of global warming. On the GBR a more severe bleaching event followed in 2002 in conjunction with another El Niño. This was then said to show that the frequency and severity of bleaching events was increasing and because of global warming they would soon become annual events. From 60 to 95 per cent of worldwide reefs were estimated to have been affected in 1998. However, this figure is somewhat misleading in that it is not an estimate of the actual proportion of total coral affected but only the percentage of reefs where any bleaching at all was seen. Where it occurred, bleaching generally only affected variable portions of the shallow tops of particular reefs. Since then no further global events have occurred and recovery both on the GBR and elsewhere has been surprisingly rapid . Although it is generally believed that global warming has resulted in increased coral bleaching and is a severe threat to reefs, the high surface water temperatures associated with bleaching have not been the result of exceptionally high air temperatures. Bleaching is a consequence of extended periods of calm weather during which mixing from wave action ceases and surface water becomes exceptionally warm. Such warming is especially marked in very shallow water such as on reef flats. At the same time the absence of waves also eliminates the wave driven currents that normally flush the top of reefs. Bleaching conditions require at least a week or more of calm weather to develop and this may happen every few years, only once in a century, or never, depending on location. On oceanic reefs it is less common due to ocean swell and currents even in calm weather. In coastal areas it is more common due to the reduction in such water movements. A significant drop in trade winds with extended periods of calm and high surface water temperatures are characteristic of El Niño conditions. Bleaching scars and isotope temperature records in cores from living and subfossil corals bear abundant evidence of past bleaching events going back thousands of years . Even fossil corals millions of years old show similar patterns. There is no evidence for any recent increase in such events and nothing to suggest more El Niños or calmer weather as a result of global warming. To the contrary, the climate models project increased winds. Five centuries of historical records and several millennia of sediment records indicate that the recent frequency and intensity of El Niño events is well within past limits and some the strongest events occurred during the cooler period of the Little Ice Age. Abundant uncontested evidence from numerous sediment studies indicates that oceanic surface temperatures were higher during the Medieval Warm Period about 1,000 years ago than at present. They were even higher during the Holocene climate optimum 5,000-9,000 years ago and higher yet during the previous interglacial period about 125,000 years ago. Going back still further, over most of geologic time the Earth has been much more tropical than at present and corals flourished. Most of the coral genera living on today’s reefs were present in very similar form on reefs 20 million years ago. Many go back 50 million years and some were even around 120 million years ago . All have not just survived; but, they have flourished when Earth’s climate was much warmer than now or anything projected as a result of AGW. The most likely effect on reefs of a warming climate would be an expansion of their geographic extent and there is some evidence this has already occurred as a result of the mild warming of the past several decades. In Florida recent growth of coral has occurred farther north than it did a few decades ago; although,in the same areas sub-fossil corals indicate previous such advances in the recent past. Similarly, at the southern limit of reef growth the corals of Moreton Bay off Brisbane have also flourished over recent years. Despite the prophesies of imminent doom after the widespread bleaching associated with the 1998 El Niño, similar widespread events have not recurred and most affected reefs have recovered more fully and rapidly than expected. The same coral species that bleach on some reefs often thrive elsewhere at higher temperatures and in some bleaching locations subsequent events have shown less effect even at higher temperatures. The reason is believed to lie in differing strains of their algal symbionts which are adapted to different temperatures. How far such adaptation can go is not known but species distributions of corals and associated water temperatures indicate that the temperatures involved in bleaching events on the GBR have been several degrees below what the same species routinely survive elsewhere. In fact, the normally warmer far northern portion of the GBR has suffered least from bleaching. By 2006-07 public concern over bleaching of the GBR reached a level that could without exaggeration be termed hysteria. Widespread media attention was given to proposals to protect the reef by erecting shadecloth over it or by cooling it with a sprinkler system. The extraordinary cost of implementing and maintaining such a scheme on any meaningful scale was never mentioned nor was the certainty of its frequent devastation by tropical cyclones. Remarkably, these absurdly impractical ideas were accorded serious attention and were endorsed by tourism businesses, environmentalists, and researchers. Even the Federal Tourism Minister signed on. To add the ridiculous to the absurd the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority went so far as to fund a feasibility study. Following the 2002 event no further mass bleaching has occurred . The winter of 2007 resulted in record and near record low temperatures all across the southern hemisphere. A June story in the Brisbane Courier Mail reported that barramundi populations in the North of Australia were predicted to decline because global warming would make the northern waters too warm for them. The next month a story in the same newspaper reported a massive mortality of barramundi in the reservoir at Mount Isa due to lethally low temperatures. In August an article in The Australian reported coral bleaching as record cold hit reefs in southern Queensland. With the cooling trend in climate now clearly manifesting globally, climate alarmism with regard to the GBR has recently shifted focus to oceanic acidification. The purported concern here is that increasing atmospheric CO2 will acidify the oceans enough that corals will be unable to secrete their limestone skeletons. The balance of evidence again indicates otherwise. Three widespread studies of reef coral calcification rates in SE Asia, on the Great Barrier Reef and in the Caribbean all found substantially increased calcification rates over the past half century . However, the reef catastrophists have now come up with a much more limited study which found reduced average calcification during a 16 year period in a few coral specimens from inshore reefs on the GBR. These inshore reefs are frequently subject to environmental extremes and the time period involved encompassed the two recent bleaching events. Whether the inhibition of growth found in these specimens was a consequence of acidification as was suggested or other factors such as temperature, turbidity or salinity is unknown. Nevertheless, much was made of this barely detectable trend in a very limited, highly varied sample. Without the tenuous suggestion of a link to GW it is doubtful this study would have even found publication in a peer reviewed journal. Observations from locations where CO2 is vented into the sea by geological processes indicate little detriment to corals or other marine life up to a level corresponding to a 4x increase in atmospheric CO2 . The most prominent observable effect of the increased CO2 is, as it is above the surface, a flourishing of plant life . Sea water pH varies geographically. In the Western Caribbean area it averages only about 7.90-7.95 which is at the lower end of geographic variability and lower than predicted for the GBR in 2100 . Still, this area has the richest reef development in the tropical Atlantic. Then too, a number of modern reef coral genera first appear in the Cretaceous period when CO2 levels were 3-10x greater that at present . Elsewhere, across Australia’s tropic regions, predicted climate impacts are entirely speculation founded on projections from unverified models of complex processes about which we understand very little. Tarot cards offer a sounder record of accuracy. The suggestion of a link to AGW lends great importance to what would otherwise merely be seen as minor natural fluctuations of no particular interest to anyone. Biologists in particular have signed up wholesale for unquestioning faith in a highly complex and uncertain physical theory of about which they are poorly informed or even equipped to understand. As for the climate models themselves, their projections are constantly being changed with new " adjustments ". They are highly dependant on numerous uncertain assumptions and estimates , incorporate greatly simplified treatments of complex poorly understood phenomena and can be tweeked to produce a broad range of equally plausible projections. Their outputs reflect much more the belief of the modeller than of any accurate depiction of climate. Even so, for what it is worth, most such models predict minimal warming in the tropics but much greater increases at high latitudes. Predictions of catastrophic consequences to the GBR are not even based on any model but are simply speculation. Even the more extreme projections only depict tropical oceanic conditions which are still well within the limits that thriving reefs now tolerate in other places. The most likely effect of warmer oceans would be to expand the geographic extent of reefs to higher latitudes. Repeated experience teaches that alarmist predictions of future events have an exceedingly poor record of accuracy. In view of the many uncertainties and assumptions involved in AGW it seems particularly important to consider real world evidence for any indication of predicted trends. Thus far there is none . Coral Reefs

No impact to reef acidification Australian National University ’12 (December 1o, 2012, “Silver lining to coral reef climate cloud,” http://cmbe-cpms.anu.edu.au/news-events/silver-lining-coral-reef-climate-cloud) //ER Researchers from The Australian National University have found parts of our coral reefs are more resistant to ocean acidification than first thought, casting a ray of hope on the future of our reefs. The study, published in Nature Climate Change today, details their analyses of the mineral structure of coralline algae, which form a hard ridge around the reef, protecting delicate corals from harsh waves and holding the structure together. They discovered an extra mineral, dolomite, in coralline algae, which made the organism less susceptible to being dissolved in increasingly acidic oceans. “A coral reef is like a house - the coral are the bricks, but the coralline algae are the cement that holds it all together,” explains lead author and PhD candidate with the ANU Research School of Physics & Engineering, Merinda Nash. “Researchers are concerned that when atmospheric carbon levels rise and ocean acidity increases, the magnesium calcite which makes up the coralline algae will dissolve first, threatening the very foundations of the reef. “However, in a rare piece of good news, we found when we analysed algal samples from Heron Island on the Great Barrier Reef that the cell spaces in the algae were filled with dolomite, the same strong mineral that makes up the Dolomite Alps in Italy. Dolomite is about half magnesium and half calcium and is less susceptible to acidity than the magnesium calcite, meaning the structure of the coral reefs is stronger than previously thought.” Dr Brad Opdyke from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, who collaborated with Nash on the paper, together with other researchers from Australia, Japan and America, said: “Coralline algae play a really important role in the architecture of the reef. Without it, the reef would just be a big pile of rubble. The clouds of climate change are very dark, but now there is this thin silver lining. The dolomite may just make some of the coralline stable enough to keep holding things together.” Past research has shown that the structure of a coral reef consists mainly of forms of calcium carbonate, a mineral formed in the skeletons of coral and algae and laid down in sedimentary layers over thousands of years. The algal skeletons are made of a type of calcium carbonate called magnesium calcite which contains about 10 to 20 per cent magnesium instead of calcium. “It’s a much weaker structure than the version used by other organisms and is quite vulnerable to rising acidity levels. But the dolomite-rich coralline algae are better able to resist rising acidity levels. There is less space for sea water to circulate and less surface area for the acidic water to act,” said Nash.

Acidification doesn’t hurt reefs – natural defense mechanisms ANU 12 – Australian National University (“Silver lining to coral reef climate cloud,” 12/10/12, http://news.anu.edu.au/2012/12/10/silver-lining-to-coral-reef-climate-cloud/)//JGold Researchers have found parts of our coral reefs are more resistant to ocean acidification than first thought, casting a ray of hope on the future of our reefs. The study, published in Nature Climate Change today, details their analyses of the mineral structure of coralline algae, which form a hard ridge around the reef, protecting delicate corals from harsh waves and holding the structure together. They discovered an extra mineral, dolomite, in coralline algae, which made the organism less susceptible to being dissolved in increasingly acidic oceans. “A coral reef is like a house – the coral are the bricks, but the coralline algae are the cement that holds it all together,” explains lead author and PhD candidate with the ANU Research School of Physics & Engineering, Merinda Nash. “Researchers are concerned that when atmospheric carbon levels rise and ocean acidity increases, the magnesium calcite which makes up the coralline algae will dissolve first, threatening the very foundations of the reef. “However, in a rare piece of good news, we found when we analysed algal samples from Heron Island on the Great Barrier Reef that the cell spaces in the algae were filled with dolomite, the same strong mineral that makes up the Dolomite Alps in Italy. “Dolomite is about half magnesium and half calcium and is less susceptible to acidity than the magnesium calcite, meaning the structure of the coral reefs is stronger than previously thought.” Dr Brad Opdyke from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, who collaborated with Nash on the paper, together with other researchers from Australia, Japan and America, said: “Coralline algae play a really important role in the architecture of the reef. Without it, the reef would just be a big pile of rubble. “The clouds of climate change are very dark, but now there is this thin silver lining. The dolomite may just make some of the coralline stable enough to keep holding things together.” Past research has shown that the structure of a coral reef consists mainly of forms of calcium carbonate, a mineral formed in the skeletons of coral and algae and laid down in sedimentary layers over thousands of years. The algal skeletons are made of a type of calcium carbonate called magnesium calcite which contains about 10 to 20 per cent magnesium instead of calcium. “It’s a much weaker structure than the version used by other organisms and is quite vulnerable to rising acidity levels. “But the dolomite-rich coralline algae are better able to resist rising acidity levels. There is less space for sea water to circulate and less surface area for the acidic water to act,” said Nash.

If their data is correct and the ocean is exponentially acidifying then reefs should show signs of damage – but they don’t Osborne et. al 11 – Kate Osborne is a member of the Australian Institute of Marine Science. Andrew Dolman has a PhD in Macroecology. Scott Burgess is an Assistant Professor of biological science at Florida State University. (Kate, Andrew Dolman, Scott Burgess, Kerryn A. Johns, “Disturbance and the Dynamics of Coral Cover on the Great Barrier Reef (1995–2009)”, PLos One, March 10, P.1)//JFHH Up to 2009, the majority of declines in coral cover were associated with particular disturbances. We attribute the relatively low contribution of coral disease and bleaching to coral declines to relatively low levels of stress (e.g., over- fishing and pollution) in the GBR system. Stressors may be more patchy and localised due to the low anthropogenic pressure relative to other reef regions and the dynamics of the reef matrix which promote water circulation [44]. The number of declines in coral cover associated with ‘unknown’ agents has increased since 2000, but even if these could be attributed to disease or bleaching, the magnitude of decline would still be low compared to A. planci and storms. Surveys in 1998 and 2002 identified large areas of reef where coral was bleached [35]. Our results indicate that mortality was not widespread or severe at depths of 6–9 meters. Since the last widespread bleaching event on the GBR in 2002, summer sea surface temperatures have been high in some locations. Both disease and bleaching have clear links with increased temperature and are likely to be important causes of chronic mortality on stressed reefs [45]. The long-term persistence of reefs requires coral communities to recover between episodic disturbance events. While our dataset is unique in its spatial and temporal coverage, 16 years is still a short period in which to document disturbance and recovery cycles, and the specific time frame influences our observations. For reefs where we were able to document cycles of disturbance and recovery, a high percentage ( 92% ) either did not decline or declined and recovered. We found two reefs where additional disturbance interrupted recovery before the pre-disturbance coral cover was reached. Both reefs were back to 70% of their maximum in 2009 and increasing . Recovery was similar across disturbance types except on reefs recovering from A.planci that had higher intrinsic growth rates. Similar results were found for other reef regions [46] and have been attributed to the maintenance of structural complexity following A.planci. While bleaching and disease also leave an intact skeleton, thermal stress associated with these disturbance types impairs reproductive success in Acropora spp [47,48]. The fine- scale complexity of tabulate Acropora skeletons may provide protection from grazing in the early stages of growth when pressure can be intense (A. Thompson, pers comm.). Alternately the maintenance of fish diversity in habitats with higher structural complexity [9] may help create suitable substrate for coral recruitment. Multiple disturbances were associated with declines on inner and mid-shelf reefs where coral cover dropped below 10%. The spatial and temporal aggregation of disturbances in the Cairns and Townsville sectors up to 2002 resulted in four inshore reefs and three mid-shelf reefs having low coral cover. Recovery was slow until 2007. On Cairns inshore reefs, shallower sites on the inshore reefs recovered to high coral cover sooner and had a higher proportion of Acropora spp driving coral cover change [29,49]. Light limitation associated with turbidity is likely to be a factor inhibiting recovery on inshore reefs. Wet season rainfall has been high in recent years and has included flood events that have led to persistent turbidity in inshore environments [50]. At one reef (Green Island), recovery from A. planci outbreaks prior to 1995 was already poor on deeper sites and slow recovery may be due to recruitment failure [51]. On Havannah Island, a Townsville inshore reef, persistent macroalgae dominance, indicative of a ‘phase shift’, is possibly due to low diversity and abundance of herbivorous fishes (e.g., Acanthurids and Siganids) that can prevent the establishment of macroalgae [52]. A better under- standing of disturbance risk and recovery potential is required to better manage reefs at local scales. There is substantial knowledge of individual risks for bleaching, cyclones, disease and A. planci. Areas least at risk of multiple or intense events should be identified, especially on the mid- and outer shelf where anthropogenic effects not related to climate change should be minimal. It is not known to what extent low coral cover compromises ecosystem functioning, but there are indications that the amount of coral cover influences other species either directly or indirectly. While several studies have found declines in fish diversity when coral declines [53,54], fish counts from AIMS survey reefs indicate that there was no long term loss of fish diversity or evenness, though fish abundance declined following loss of coral cover [55]. The shift from coral to macroalgae at Havannah Island has not resulted in fish species loss, but low starting values for species diversity and abundance may have been a factor in the long-term persistence of macroalgae [52]. Storms destroy the physical substrate, which has more severe consequences for fish abundance and diversity [56]. A. planci, bleaching and disease have less effect on fish populations, presumably due to the maintenance of topographic complexity [22], but see [21]. The effects of Acroporidae loss are well documented for specialist coral feeders [57] but the wider consequences to reef communities are not well known. With the exception of Havannah Island, all reefs that had low coral cover were in recovery phases in 2009, suggesting critical ‘tipping points’ have not been exceeded [58]. Climate change is expected to cause changes in relative abundance of species due to differential mortality and recovery rates [2]. The susceptibility of Acroporidae (and especially Acropora spp) to A. planci [20], bleaching [59], and disease [17] is well documented. Only one subregion had a significant decline in Acroporidae, suggesting that on most reefs, recruitment , growth and mortality are keeping up with the recent disturbance regime. For non-Acroporidae families, 11 of the 15 subregions had declines, three of which were statistically significant. All but one inshore subregion and all outer shelf subregions had negative trends for non-Acroporidae. Persistent declines are a ‘red flag’ for managers and researchers to elucidate where functional failures are occurring. The pressures on inshore reefs of the GBR have been well documented [60,30] with existing research suggesting coral bleaching and elevated nutrients are adding unsustainable pressure to inshore reefs [61,62]. Our results suggest that outer shelf reefs are also at risk due to intense disturbance pressure in recent years and large disturbance size, both spatially and in intensity of storms. For slower growing coral, evidence suggests that the current disturbance regime is unsustainable. Ecological health indices calculated from species richness estimates on GBR reefs found that species loss was a feature of depauperate coral communities, rather than a shift in community composition [23]. Loss or decline of less tolerant species would be consistent with our results and needs further investigation. In conclusion, precise estimates of coral cover from a dedicated monitoring program revealed that system-wide coral cover changed very little on the GBR between 1995 and 2009 . Although coral cover averaged 29% across the whole GBR, previous studies indicate that coral cover was higher prior to when our surveys began . Nonetheless, there appears to be no evidence of continued system-wide decline since 1995 . During this 16 year period, storms and A. planci predation had the largest impact on coral cover, especially at subregional scales (10–100 km), in terms of reefs affected, summed coral lost at all reefs, and amount of decline at individual reefs. The impact of bleaching and coral disease, to date, was not severe on our sites. There are a number of factors however, that suggest that the current disturbance regime may not be sustainable. One inshore reef, for example, had a phase shift from hard coral to macroalgae, similar to that which has occurred at much larger scales in the Carribbean [63]. Corals with less capacity for growth and recruitment than Acroporidae had widespread negative trends. However, the abundance of Acropor- idae species and relatively low anthropogenic agents of disturbance appears to place the GBR in a healthier state than the global average.

Their evidence is hype – even if ocean acidification is bad coral won’t die Krief et. al 10 (Shani Krief [The Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty for Life Sciences at Bar- Ilan University and The interuniversity Institute for Marine Science in Eilat], Erica J. Hendy [Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol], Maoz Fine [The Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty for Life Sciences at Bar-Ilan University and The interuniversity Institute for Marine Science in Eilat ], Ruth Yam [Department of Environmental Sciencesand Energy REseach at The Weizmann Institute of Science], Anders Meibom [Laboratoire de Mineralogie et Cosmochimie du Museum], Gavin L. Foster [Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol], Aldo Shemesh [Department of Environmental Sciences and Energy Research at The Weizmann Institute of Science], “Physiological and isotopic responses of scleractinian corals to ocean acidification”, Science Direct, June, P. 4998)//JFHH The long acclimation time of this study allowed the coral colonies to reach a steady state in terms of their physiolog- ical responses to elevated pCO2. As a result, the physiolog- ical response to higher pCO2/lower pH conditions was significant, but less extreme than reported in previous experiments. Our findings suggest that scleractinian coral species will be able to acclimate to a high pCO2 ocean even if changes in seawater pH are faster and more dramatic than predicted . Although skeletal growth and zooxanthel- lae density were negatively impacted, coral tissue biomass and zooxanthellae chlorophyll concentrations increased un- der high pCO2 conditions. Reduced skeletal growth will have negative implications at colony and ecosystem scales due to increased risk of physical damage and bioerosion, and decreased accretion of reef structure. Studies prove – even massive acidification is survivable Krief et. al 10 (Shani Krief [The Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty for Life Sciences at Bar-Ilan University and The interuniversity Institute for Marine Science in Eilat], Erica J. Hendy [Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol], Maoz Fine [The Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty for Life Sciences at Bar-Ilan University and The interuniversity Institute for Marine Science in Eilat ], Ruth Yam [Department of Environmental Sciencesand Energy REseach at The Weizmann Institute of Science], Anders Meibom [Laboratoire de Mineralogie et Cosmochimie du Museum], Gavin L. Foster [Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol], Aldo Shemesh [Department of Environmental Sciences and Energy Research at The Weizmann Institute of Science], “Physiological and isotopic responses of scleractinian corals to ocean acidification”, Science Direct, June, P. 4988)//JFHH Uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the oceans is altering seawater chemistry with potentially serious consequences for coral reef ecosystems due to the reduction of seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Xarag). The objectives of this long-term study were to investigate the viability of two ecologically important reef-building coral species, massive Porites sp. and Stylo- phora pistillata, exposed to high pCO2 (or low pH) conditions and to observe possible changes in physiologically related parameters as well as skeletal isotopic composition. Fragments of Porites sp. and S. pistillata were kept for 6–14 months under controlled aquarium conditions characterized by normal and elevated pCO2 conditions, corresponding to pHT values of 8.09 , 7.49 , and 7.19 , respectively. In contrast with shorter, and therefore more transient experiments, the long experimental time- scale achieved in this study ensures complete equilibration and steady state with the experimental environment and guarantees that the data provide insights into viable and stably growing corals. During the experiments, all coral fragments survived and added new skeleton , even at seawater Xarag < 1, implying that the coral skeleton is formed by mechanisms under strong bio- logical control. Measurements of boron (B), carbon (C), and oxygen (O) isotopic composition of skeleton, C isotopic com- position of coral tissue and symbiont zooxanthellae, along with physiological data (such as skeletal growth, tissue biomass, zooxanthellae cell density, and chlorophyll concentration) allow for a direct comparison with corals living under normal con- ditions and sampled simultaneously. Skeletal growth and zooxanthellae density were found to decrease, whereas coral tissue biomass (measured as protein concentration) and zooxanthellae chlorophyll concentrations increased under high pCO2 (low pH) conditions. Both species showed similar trends of d11B depletion and d18O enrichment under reduced pH, whereas the d13C results imply species-specific metabolic response to high pCO2 conditions. The skeletal d11B values plot above seawater d11B vs. pH borate fractionation curves calculated using either the theoretically derived aB value of 1.0194 (Kakihana et al. (1977) Bull. Chem. Soc. Jpn. 50, 158) or the empirical aB value of 1.0272 (Klochko et al. (2006) EPSL 248, 261). However, the effective aB must be greater than 1.0200 in order to yield calculated coral skeletal d11B values for pH conditions where Xarag P 1. The d11B vs. pH offset from the seawater d11B vs. pH fractionation curves suggests a change in the ratio of skeletal material laid down during dark and light calcification and/or an internal pH regulation, presumably controlled by ion-trans- port enzymes. Finally, seawater pH significantly influences skeletal d13C and d18O. This must be taken into consideration when reconstructing paleo-environmental conditions from coral skeletons. Empirics – General

Persian Gulf proves that ocean acidification is survivable Bauman, Baird, and Cavalcante 11 – PhD Candidate at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University. Baird has a PhD in marine ecology and is a professorial research fellow at ARC centre of Excellence for Coral Reef studies at James Cook University. Cavalcante was a researcher at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral reef studies at James Cook University. (A.G., A.H., G.H., “Coral reproduction in the world’s warmest reefs: southern Persian Gulf (Dubai, United Arab Emirates)”, January 7, Springer-Verlag, P. 405)//JFHH Abstract Despite extensive research on coral reproduc- tion from numerous geographic locations, there remains limited knowledge within the Persian Gulf. Given that corals in the Persian Gulf exist in one of the most stressful environments for reef corals , with annual variations in sea surface temperature (SST) of 12°C and maximum summer mean SSTs of 36°C , understanding coral reproductive biology in the Gulf may provide clues as to how corals may cope with global warming. In this study, we examined six locally common coral species on two shallow reef sites in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), in 2008 and 2009 to investigate the patterns of reproduction, in particular the timing and synchrony of spawning. In total, 71% colonies in April 2008 and 63% colonies in April 2009 contained mature oocytes. However, the presence of mature gametes in May indicated that spawning was potentially split between April and May in all species. These results dem- onstrate that coral reproduction patterns within this region are highly seasonal and that multi-species spawning synchrony is highly probable. Acropora downingi, Cyphastrea microphthalma and Platygyra daedalea were all hermaphroditic broadcast spawners with a single annual gametogenic cycle. Furthermore, fecundity and mature oocyte sizes were comparable to those in other regions. We conclude that the reproductive biology of corals in the southern Persian Gulf is similar to other regions, indicating that these species have adapted to the extreme environ- mental conditions in the southern Persian Gulf.

Persian gulf shows that resilience solves their impact – temperature variability, hyper- saline, coral bleeching Bauman, Baird, and Cavalcante 11 – PhD Candidate at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University. Baird has a PhD in marine ecology and is a professorial research fellow at ARC centre of Excellence for Coral Reef studies at James Cook University. Cavalcante was a researcher at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral reef studies at James Cook University. (A.G., A.H., G.H., “Coral reproduction in the world’s warmest reefs: southern Persian Gulf (Dubai, United Arab Emirates)”, January 7, Springer-Verlag, P. 405-406)//JFHH Over 25 years have passed since the discovery of multi- specific broadcast spawning of scleractinian corals on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) (Harrison et al. 1984). Since then, there has been a substantial increase in research on coral reproduction globally. As a result, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of coral species for which reproductive schedules and traits are known, in particular from regions that were previously under-represented (reviewed by Baird et al. 2009a). However, despite this recent research, there remains limited information on coral reproductive processes in regions such as the Persian Gulf. Coral assemblages in the Persian Gulf (24–30°N) experience the highest annual variability in water temper- atures of any coral reefs (Kinsman 1964; Sheppard 1988; Sheppard et al. 2000). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can fluctuate annually from winter lows \ 12°C to summer highs [ 36°C (Sheppard et al. 1992; Sheppard 1993). Moreover, the Persian Gulf has significant seasonal insolation fluctuations (Sheppard et al. 2010) and is a hyper-saline environment year-round with salinities regu- larly [45 ppt (Sheppard et al. 1992). The persistence of reefs in the Persian Gulf indicates a potential to adapt to extreme environmental conditions (Coles and Fadlallah 1991; Coles and Brown 2003). The recovery of these coral assemblages following mortality induced by a number of recent temperature-related bleaching events (1996, 1998 and 2002) suggests these assemblages are also resilient to extreme fluctuations in water temperature (Riegl 1999, 2003; Burt et al. 2008). Considering that corals in the Persian Gulf survive in one of the most stressful physical environments encountered by any reef corals (Coles and Fadlallah 1991; Sheppard et al. 1992; Riegl 1999), under- standing the process of coral reproduction under such extreme physical conditions may be crucial as similar conditions may eventually become commonplace on a broad range of coral reefs due to climate change.

No impact to acidification – empirics have our back CO2 Science 9 – Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (Ocean Acidification Database, CO2 science, http://www.co2science.org/data/acidification/results.php)//JFHH *there is no date, but it cites a study form 2009 The results we have depicted in the figures above suggest something very different from the doomsday predictions of the climate alarmists who claim we are in "the last decades of coral reefs on this planet for at least the next ... million plus years, unless we do something very soon to reduce CO2 emissions," or who declare that "reefs are starting to crumble and disappear," that "we may lose those ecosystems within 20 or 30 years," and that "we've got the last decade in which we can do something about this problem." Clearly, the promoting of such scenarios is not supported by the vast bulk of pertinent experimental data. Two other important phenomena that give us reason to believe the predicted decline in oceanic pH will have little to no lasting negative effects on marine life are the abilities of essentially all forms of life to adapt and evolve . Of those experiments in our database that report the length of time the organisms were subjected to reduced pH levels, for example, the median value was only four days. And many of the experiments were conducted over periods of only a few hours, which is much too short a time for organisms to adapt (or evolve) to successfully cope with new environmental conditions (see, for example, the many pertinent Journal Reviews we have archived under the general heading of Evolution in our Subject Index). And when one allows for such phenomena, the possibility of marine life experiencing a negative response to ocean acidification becomes even less likely. In conclusion, claims of impending marine species extinctions driven by increases in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration do not appear to be founded in empirical reality , based on the experimental findings we have analyzed above. Empirics – Coral Reefs

Coral reefs are stable – empirics of the Great Barrier Reef prove Osborne et. al 11 – Kate Osborne is a member of the Australian Institute of Marine Science. Andrew Dolman has a PhD in Macroecology. Scott Burgess is an Assistant Professor of biological science at Florida State University. (Kate, Andrew Dolman, Scott Burgess, Kerryn A. Johns, “Disturbance and the Dynamics of Coral Cover on the Great Barrier Reef (1995–2009)”, PLos One, March 10, P.5-7)//JFHH Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are under pressure from chronic and acute stressors that threaten their continued existence. Most obvious among changes to reefs is loss of hard coral cover, but a precise multi-scale estimate of coral cover dynamics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is currently lacking. Monitoring data collected annually from fixed sites at 47 reefs across 1300 km of the GBR indicate that overall regional coral cover was stable ( averaging 29% and ranging from 23% to 33% cover across years) with no net decline between 1995 and 2009 . Subregional trends (10–100 km) in hard coral were diverse with some being very dynamic and others changing little . Coral cover increased in six subregions and decreased in seven subregions. Persistent decline of corals occurred in one subregion for hard coral and Acroporidae and in four subregions in non-Acroporidae families. Change in Acroporidae accounted for 68% of change in hard coral. Crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks and storm damage were responsible for more coral loss during this period u either bleaching or disease despite two mass bleaching events and an increase in the incidence of coral disease. While the limited data for the GBR prior to the 1980’s suggests that coral cover was higher than in our survey, we found no evidence of consistent, system-wide decline in coral cover since 1995. Instead, fluctuations in coral cover at subregional scales (10– 100 km), driven mostly by changes in fast-growing Acroporidae, occurred as a result of localized disturbance events and subsequent recovery. IPCC Indict

IPCC is wrong and acidification is beneficial – no impact until 2300 anyways CSCDGC 14 – Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, (“Ocean Acidification Database,” http://www.co2science.org/data/acidification/results.php)//JGold The low-end boundary of the unrealistic highlighted region of pH reduction in Figure 2 is 0.5, which represents the high-end or maximum value of most IPCC-based projections of CO2-induced pH reduction, which occurs in the vicinity of AD 2300. Thus, there should be little argument -- even from people who think ocean acidification is going to be a problem -- in excluding all values beyond a pH decline of 0.5 when considering how ocean acidification might realistically affect earth's marine life. In the next figure, we plot the results of all experiments that employed a seawater pH decline that fell somewhere in the still-more-likely-to-occur range of 0.0 to 0.3, where the latter value is the approximate IPCC-derived pH decline in the vicinity of AD 2100. Then, within this range, we highlight (in grey) the much smaller seawater pH reduction range that derives from the work of Tans (2009), who derived a maximum pH decline that could fall anywhere within an uncertainty range of 0.09 to 0.17 by about AD 2100, after which seawater pH begins its long-term recovery. We do this because we consider the analysis of Tans to be more realistic than the analysis of the IPCC. Thus, we would consider data within the pH reduction range of 0.0 to 0.17 as being most characteristic of what might possibly occur in the real world, as time marches on and fossil fuel burning continues as per business as usual. And, interestingly enough -- and even incorporating pH reduction data all the way out to 0.30 -- the linear trend of all the data is actually positive, indicating an overall beneficial response of the totality of the five major life characteristics of marine sea life to ocean acidification, which result is vastly different from the negative results routinely predicted by the world's climate alarmists. Negative Feedbacks

Fish digestive system solves acidification Wishart 12 – a writer (Ian, “Ocean acidification climate change fears overblown, studies show”, Investigate Daily, March 31, http://www.investigatemagazine.co.nz/Investigate/2641/ocean- acidification-climate-change-fears-overblown-studies-show/)//JFHH The UN IPCC has tried to drum up panic by suggesting rising CO2 absorption in the oceans is affecting the pH balance, making the seas more “acidic” and killing coral and other marine life. But the latest scientific studies are actually suggesting other factors may be at play. “An international team of scientists has solved a mystery that has puzzled marine chemists for decades,” explained the University of Miami in 2009.(footnote 440) “They have discovered that fish contribute a significant fraction of the oceans’ calcium carbonate production , which affects the delicate pH balance of seawater. The study gives a conservative estimate of three to 15 percent of marine calcium carbonate being produced by fish, but the researchers believe it could be up to three times higher .” Now this is an exceptionally important study. Rising CO2 levels in the oceans cause chemical reactions that can start to harm shellfish and other marine life by dissolving their shells and exoskeletal structures. In theory . However, it appears fish can and do use the surplus CO2 in the oceans , along with calcium-rich surface waters, to create calcium carbonates, which help keep the oceans alkaline. If you’ve owned a fish tank you’ll know fish quickly create their ideal pH level, and the same thing applies on a much bigger scale in the oceans. “Until now,” continues the University of Miami study, “scientists believed that the oceans’ calcium carbonate, which dissolves in deep waters making seawater more alkaline, came from marine plankton. The recent findings published in Science explain how up to 15 percent of these carbonates are, in fact, excreted by fish that continuously drink calcium-rich seawater. The ocean becomes more alkaline at much shallower depths than prior knowledge of carbonate chemistry would suggest which has puzzled oceanographers for decades. The new findings of fish-produced calcium carbonate provides an explanation: fish produce more soluble forms of calcium carbonate, which probably dissolve more rapidly, before they [are able to] sink into the deep ocean.” This is important, because the UN IPCC study teams have claimed the calcium carbonates produced by plankton (which sink to the ocean floor) take milli ons of years to re-balance the oceans, but this new study shows fish produce a much more rapidly acting form of the alkaline that can benefit the upper layers of the oceans immediately . “The digestive systems of fish play a vital role in maintaining the health of the oceans and moderating climate change,” reported Reuters news agency on the peer- reviewed study. “Bony fish produced a large portion of the inorganic carbon that helps maintain the oceans’ acidity balance and was vital for marine life, they said. “The world’s bony fish population, estimated at between 812 million and 2 billion tons, helped to limit the consequences of climate change through its effect on the . “ ‘This study is really the first glimpse of the huge impact fish have on our carbon cycle – and why we need them in the ocean’, researcher Villy Christensen and colleagues wrote. “Calcium carbonate is a white, chalky material that helps control the acidity balance of sea water and is essential to the health of marine ecosystems and coral reefs.” The probable reason for decreasing alkalinity, then, is overfishing, not CO2 emissions.(footnote 442) If we strip-mine the seas of alkaline-producing fish, we should hardly act surprised when we find less alkalinity in the seawater after a few decades of bad fishing practice. (footnote 443) Then there’s this recent bombshell published in the journal Geology: that increasing levels of CO2 in the ocean are actually helping some shellfish thrive: (footnote 444) In a striking finding that raises new questions about carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on marine life, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) scientists report that some shell-building creatures – such as crabs , shrimp and lobsters – unexpectedly build more shell when exposed to ocean acidification caused by elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Because excess CO2 dissolves in the ocean – causing it to “acidify” – researchers have been concerned about the ability of certain organisms to maintain the strength of their shells. Carbon dioxide is known to trigger a process that reduces the abundance of carbonate ions in seawater – one of the primary materials that marine organisms use to build their calcium carbonate shells and skeletons. The concern is that this process will trigger a weakening and decline in the shells of some species and, in the long term, upset the balance of the ocean ecosystem. But in a study published in the Dec. 1 issue of Geology, a team led by former WHOI postdoctoral researcher Justin B. Ries found that seven of the 18 shelled species they observed actually built more shell when exposed to varying levels of increased acidification . This may be because the total amount of dissolved inorganic carbon available to them is actually increased when the ocean becomes more acidic , even though the concentration of carbonate ions is decreased. “Most likely the organisms that responded positively were somehow able to manipulate…dissolved inorganic carbon in the fluid from which they precipitated their skeleton in a way that was beneficial to them,” said Ries, now an assistant professor in marine sciences at the University of North Carolina. “They were somehow able to manipulate CO2…to build their skeletons.” In truth, it’s a simple reminder of something the climate changers either forget or deliberately ignore when crafting their dumbed-down scary soundbites: when one species can no longer take the heat in the kitchen, another one rises up from the shadows swiftly to take its place that’s more resilient and even thrives in the new conditions. The moral of the story? Life appears far more adaptable than you hear about on the TV news. The next time you hear a Greenpeace lobbyist, or a TV reporter for that matter, sensationally warning of the dangers of ocean acidification, you can be forgiven if you choose to roll all over the floor in fits of laughter.

Bony fish produce calcium carbonate – this controls the acidity balance of the ocean Kahn 9 – the original article was published on Reuters (Michael, “Science – Fish digestions help keep the oceans healthy”, January 16, http://spoonfeedin.wordpress.com/2009/01/16/science-fish- digestions-help-keep-the-oceans-healthy/)//JFHH LONDON (Reuters) – The digestive systems of fish play a vital role in maintaining the health of the oceans and moderating climate change, researchers said on Thursday. Computer models showed how bony fish produced a large portion of the inorganic carbon that helps maintain the oceans’ acidity balance and was vital for marine life, they said. The world’s bony fish population, estimated at between 812 million and 2 billion tons, helped to limit the consequences of climate change through its effect on the carbon cycle , University of British Columbia researchers reported in the journal Science. “This study is really the first glimpse of the huge impact fish have on our carbon cycle — and why we need them in the ocean,” researcher Villy Christensen and colleagues wrote. Calcium carbonate is a white, chalky material that helps control the acidity balance of sea water and is essential to the health of marine ecosystems and coral reefs. It helps regulate how much carbon dioxide oceans would be able to absorb from the atmosphere in the future, the researchers said. Until now, scientists believed calcium carbonate came from microscopic marine plankton. The new findings suggested between 3 percent and 15 percent of the material comes from bony fish, said Rod Wilson of the University of Exeter in Britain, who worked on the study. Bony fish, which include about 90 percent of marine species but not sharks or rays, produce calcium carbonate that forms crystals in the gut and is then excreted in chalky solids. “Because of the impact of global climate change, fish are likely to have an even bigger influence on the chemistry of our oceans in the future,” Wilson said in a statement. Pteropods

No pteropod impact until 2100 Economist 13 – (“Acid test,” The Economist, 11/23/13, http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21590349-worlds-seas-are-becoming- more-acidic-how-much-matters-not-yet-clear)//JGold The variable people most worry about is called omega. This is a number that describes how threatening acidification is to seashells and skeletons. Lots of these are made of calcium carbonate, which comes in two crystalline forms: calcite and aragonite. Many critters, especially reef-forming corals and free-swimming molluscs (and most molluscs are free-swimming as larvae), prefer aragonite for their shells and skeletons. Unfortunately, this is more sensitive to acidity than calcite is. An omega value for aragonite of one is the level of acidity where calcium carbonate dissolves out of the mineral as easily as it precipitates into it. In other words, the system is in equilibrium and shells made of aragonite will not tend to dissolve. Merely creeping above that value does not, however, get you out of the woods. Shell formation is an active process, and low omega values even above one make it hard. Corals, for example, require an omega value as high as three to grow their stony skeletons prolifically. As the map above shows, that could be a problem by 2100. Low omega values are spreading from the poles (whose colder waters dissolve carbon dioxide more easily) towards the tropics. The Monterey report suggests that the rate of erosion of reefs could outpace reef building by the middle of the century, and that all reef formation will cease by the end of it. Other species will suffer, too. A study published in Nature last year, for example, looked at the shells of planktonic snails called pteropods. In Antarctic waters, which already have an omega value of one, their shells were weak and badly formed when compared with those of similar species found in warmer, more northerly waters. Earlier work on other molluscs has come to similar conclusions. No Solvency

No solvency – even if there are zero CO2 emissions, acidification will still exist EF, 14 – Environmental Future Organization (Environmental Future: Future of the Environment, “Deacidification of Our Oceans,” http://environmentalfuture.org/deacidification-of-our- oceans/)//vivienne When CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed into the oceans it dissolves and becomes carbonic acid, which reacts with the water and increases the acidity. In the last 150 years we’ve increased our CO2 emissions to a level higher than they ever have been. The result is the marine ecosystem is changing rapidly, more rapidly than the last major change 56 million years ago, and as such, the goods and services the oceans provide us simply will not be available. Nearly eighty percent of the earth is covered by oceans, which are the foundation of the food webs that we rely on on land and sea. If we stopped all CO2 emissions of today, we would still have acidification from the atmosphere to the oceans going on for decades. We know we cannot stop using hydrocarbons, so we have to engineer our way out of this and fast. We have been performing the largest experiment in the history of man and now we need to try a different experiment, to reverse the trends. The technologies that exist needs to be put to use, their performance and acceptance will increase. We face dire consequences if action is not taken immediately. Squo Solves

Status quo solves ocean acidification monitoring Banerjee, 6/18 – reporter for the Los Angeles Times (Neela, “Obama orders ocean protections; Measures target pollution, overfishing and acidification. The plan would also preserve a greater stretch of the Pacific,” Los Angeles Times, Home Edition, 2014, Lexis, http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/lnacui2api/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T20274001114&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1& resultsUrlKey=29_T20274001120&cisb=22_T20274001119&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=3 06910&docNo=2)//vivienne President Obama on Tuesday announced a series of measures to protect parts of the world's oceans, including the creation of a marine sanctuary that would close a large swath of the central Pacific to fishing and energy development. The plan would require federal agencies to take multiple initiatives to address pollution, overfishing and acidification of ocean water, which is driven by climate change. "Rising levels of carbon dioxide are causing our oceans to acidify. Pollution endangers marine life. Overfishing threatens whole species," Obama said in a televised statement to an international conference on ocean policy hosted by the State Department in Washington. "If we ignore these problems, if we drain our oceans of their resources, we won't just be squandering one of humanity's greatest treasures. We'll be cutting off one of the world's major sources of food and economic growth, including for the United States." The announcement provides further evidence of Obama's willingness to use his executive authority to advance priorities in the face of congressional stalemate, and it quickly drew criticism from congressional Republicans, who contend the administration over-regulates natural resources industries and that the president has overreached his constitutional powers. "This is yet another example of how an imperial president is intent on taking unilateral action, behind closed doors, to impose new regulations and layers of restrictive red tape," House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Doc Hastings (R-Wash.) said. "Oceans, like our federal lands, are intended to be multiple-use and open for a wide range of economic activities that includes fishing, recreation, conservation and energy production." Among the ocean plan's most ambitious and controversial steps would be expansion of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument southwest of Hawaii. In 2009, President George W. Bush gave monument status to nearly 87,000 square miles around Howland, Baker and Jarvis islands; Johnston, Wake and Palmyra atolls; and Kingman Reef. The islands are uninhabited, and the area is one of the few pristine stretches of marine environment in the world and home to thousands of migratory birds, fish and mammals. The Obama plan envisions extending monument protection from the current limit of 50 nautical miles around the islands to 200 miles, thereby restricting fishing and energy development over a far bigger expanse of ocean. The proposal could more than double the area of ocean protected by the United States, environmental groups said. The expanded protections, which under federal law the president can order without congressional approval, could go into effect this year after a public comment period. Joshua S. Reichert, executive vice president of the Pew Charitable Trusts, said he expected considerable resistance to the expansion plan from the domestic tuna industry. But he said Pew estimated that about 1% to 3% of the U.S. annual tuna catch would be affected by the plan if it went forward. "The importance of these uninhabited islands is far greater than the value of the fish there," Reichert said. The proposed protection zone holds some of the world's "richest marine life and least disturbed areas," he said. "It's immensely valuable to science and home to vast numbers of ocean species. The importance of keeping these places intact far transcends the short-term value of what can be extracted for commercial gain." The president also established a task force of at least a dozen federal agencies, including the Pentagon and Justice Department, that must develop recommendations to better combat seafood fraud and illegal fishing within the next six months. Illegal seafood accounts for one-fifth to one-third of wild-caught seafood imported to the U.S. in 2011, according to a recent study in the journal Marine Policy. Further, about one-third of seafood is mislabeled, according to a study last year by the environmental group Oceana, which analyzed more than 1,200 seafood samples bought in 21 states. The study found that fish sold as snapper was misidentified 87% of the time and tuna mislabeled 59% of time. "Because our seafood travels through an increasingly long, complex and nontransparent supply chain, there are numerous opportunities for seafood fraud to occur and illegally caught fish to enter the U.S. market," said Beth Lowell, director of Oceana's Stop Seafood Fraud campaign. "By tracing our seafood from boat to plate, consumers will have more information about the fish they purchase." The commercial seafood industry has contested the Marine Policy study, saying its methodology and assumptions are flawed. Still, John Connelly, president of the National Fisheries Institute, a commercial fishing trade group in Washington, welcomed the initiatives announced Tuesday to crack down on illegal fishing. "We recognize our ability and the government's ability to trace seafood has been strengthened as part of recent food safety legislation," Connelly said in a statement. "A task force that insists on enforcement of existing regulations, relies on science and creates an open, inclusive process is one welcomed by the seafood community." The White House plan would also improve monitoring of ocean acidification, fueled by the ever-greater amounts of carbon dioxide the oceans absorb. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by about 40% since the preindustrial era because of the combustion of fossil fuels, according to a report issued Tuesday by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Oceans absorb about 25% of the carbon dioxide human activity generates, and when the gas dissolves in seawater, some of it forms carbonic acid. Greater ocean acidity poses a threat to a range of marine life, including coral reefs and shellfish beds, such as oyster hatcheries in the Pacific Northwest. Under the plan, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would get $9 million over three years to better monitor the local effect of ocean acidification , which, in turn, could help individual coastal communities.

Seagrasses solve the impact – acidification refuge. CSCDGC, 13 – Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change citing Manzello, D.P., Enochs, I.C., Melo, N., Gledhill, D.K. and Johns, E.M. in the 2012 “Ocean acidification refugia of the Florida Reef Tract” (Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “Seagrasses Enable Nearby Corals to Withstand Ocean Acidification,” March 6, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V16/N10/B2.php)//vivienne Background The authors state that although many people expect future ocean acidification (OA) due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations to reduce the calcification rates of marine organisms, they say we have little understanding of how OA will manifest itself within dynamic, real-world systems, because, as they correctly note, "natural CO2, alkalinity, and salinity gradients can significantly alter local carbonate chemistry, and thereby create a range of susceptibility for different ecosystems to OA." What was done "To determine if photosynthetic CO2 uptake associated with seagrass beds has the potential to create OA refugia," as they describe it, Manzello et al. repeatedly measured carbonate chemistry across an inshore-to-offshore gradient in the upper, middle and lower Florida Reef Tract over a two-year period. What was learned During times of heightened oceanic vegetative productivity, the five U.S. researchers found "there is a net uptake of total CO2 which increases aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) values on inshore patch reefs of the upper Florida Reef Tract," and they say that "these waters can exhibit greater Ωarag than what has been modeled for the tropical surface ocean during preindustrial times, with mean Ωarag values in spring equaling 4.69 ± 0.10." At the same time, however, they report that Ωarag values on offshore reefs "generally represent oceanic carbonate chemistries consistent with present day tropical surface ocean conditions." What it means Manzello et al. hypothesize that the pattern described above "is caused by the photosynthetic uptake of total CO2 mainly by seagrasses and, to a lesser extent, macroalgae in the inshore waters of the Florida Reef Tract." And they therefore conclude that these inshore reef habitats are "potential acidification refugia that are defined not only in a spatial sense, but also in time, coinciding with seasonal productivity dynamics," which further implies that "coral reefs located within or immediately downstream of seagrass beds may find refuge from ocean acidification." And in further support of this conclusion, they cite the work of Palacios and Zimmerman (2007), which they describe as indicating that "seagrasses exposed to high-CO2 conditions for one year had increased reproduction, rhizome biomass, and vegetative growth of new shoots, which could represent a potential positive feedback to their ability to serve as ocean acidification refugia." Ocean Acidification Good Data Flawed

Slayer – alarmist projections wrong, acidification helps marine life, your data is shit, and our data is great CSCDGC 14 – Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, (“Ocean Acidification Database,” http://www.co2science.org/data/acidification/background.php)//JGold **we don’t endorse ableist language When these emissions estimates are transformed into reductions of oceanic pH, it can readily be seen in the figure to the left that Tans' projection at 2100 is far below that predicted by the IPCC. And Tans' analysis indicates a pH recovery to values near today by the year 2500, clearly suggesting that things are not the way the world's climate alarmists make them out to be when it comes to potential effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their effects on the air's CO2 content and oceanic pH values.¶ Another reason to not jump on the ocean acidification bandwagon is the fact that, with more CO2 in the air, additional weathering of terrestrial carbonates is likely to occur, which would increase delivery of Ca2+ to the oceans and partly compensate for the CO2-induced decrease in oceanic calcium carbonate saturation state. In addition, as with all phenomena involving living organisms, the introduction of life into the ocean acidification picture greatly complicates things. A number of interrelated biological phenomena, for example, must also be considered; and when they are, it becomes much more difficult to draw such sweeping negative conclusions.¶ In fact, as demonstrated in numerous reviews of the scientific literature that we have published on our CO2 Science website, these considerations even suggest that the rising CO2 content of Earth's atmosphere may well be a positive phenomenon (see, for example, the many topics listed under Calcification and Ocean Acidification in our Subject Index).¶ Nevertheless, articles continue to be published in peer-reviewed journals on both sides of the issue, making it difficult to get to the bottom of what impact rising atmospheric carbon dioxide will really have on marine life. For every article that seems to present the issue in a negative light, there is a counter article that presents it in a positive light. With the creation of our Ocean Acidification Database, however, our understanding of this important issue has taken a giant leap forward.¶ Debuting with over 1100 experimental results from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, our database details the responses of various growth and developmental parameters of marine organisms immersed in seawater at or near today's oceanic pH level, as well as lower than that of today. More results are continually being added to the database on a regular basis as additional studies from the peer-reviewed scientific literature are published. Freely availabe to all, this database represents the largest quantitative analysis ever conducted on the subject of ocean acidification.

Most comprehensive meta-analyses prove our argument – all your data is cherry picked and terrible Hendricks et al 10 - Department of Global Change Research. IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) (Iris, “The Real Ocean Acidification Story,” NIPCC, 7/16/10, http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/16jul2010a1.html)//JGold In the most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of experimental studies that have explored the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on marine biota, Hendriks et al. (2010) assembled a database of 372 experimentally-evaluated responses of 44 different marine species to ocean acidification that was induced by equilibrating seawater with CO2-enriched air. This they did because, as they describe it, "warnings that ocean acidification is a major threat to marine biodiversity are largely based on the analysis of predicted changes in ocean chemical fields," which are derived from theoretical models that do not account for numerous biological phenomena and have only "limited experimental support."¶ Of the published reports they scrutinized, only 154 assessed the significance of responses relative to controls; and of those reports, 47 reported no significant response, so that "only a minority of studies," in their words, demonstrated "significant responses to acidification." And when the results of that minority group of studies were pooled, there was no significant mean effect. Nevertheless, the three researchers found that some types of organisms and certain functional processes did exhibit significant responses to seawater acidification. However, since their analyses to this point had included some acidification treatments that were extremely high, they repeated their analyses for only those acidification conditions that were induced by atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 2000 ppm or less, which latter limiting concentration had been predicted to occur around the year 2300 by Caldeira and Wickett (2003).¶ In this second analysis, Hendriks et al. once again found that the overall response, including all biological processes and functional groups, was not significantly different from that of the various control treatments, although calcification was reduced by 33 ± 4.5% and fertility by 11 ± 3.5% across groups, while survival and growth showed no significant overall responses. And when the upper limiting CO2 concentrations were in the range of 731-759 ppm, or just below the value predicted by the IPCC (2007) for the end of the 21st century (790 ppm) -- calcification rate reductions of only 25% were observed. What is more, the three researchers say that this decline "is likely to be an upper limit, considering that all experiments involve the abrupt exposure of organisms to elevated pCO2 values, while the gradual increase in pCO2 that is occurring in nature may allow adaptive and selective processes to operate," citing the work of Widdicombe et al. (2008) and noting that "these gradual changes take place on the scale of decades, permitting adaptation of organisms even including genetic selection."¶ Yet even this mitigating factor is not the end of the good news, for Hendriks et al. write that "most experiments assessed organisms in isolation, rather than [within] whole communities," and they say that the responses of other entities and processes within the community may well buffer the negative impacts of CO2-indced acidification on earth's corals. As an example, they note that "sea-grass photosynthetic rates may increase by 50% with increased CO2, which may deplete the CO2 pool, maintaining an elevated pH that may protect associated calcifying organisms from the impacts of ocean acidification."¶ In describing another phenomenon that benefits corals, the researchers write that "seasonal changes in pCO2 are in the range of 236-517 ppm in the waters of the northern East China Sea (Shim et al., 2007)," and that "metabolically-active coastal ecosystems experience broad diel changes in pH, such as the diel changes of >0.5 pH units reported for sea grass ecosystems (Invers et al., 1997)," which they say represent "a broader range than that expected to result from ocean acidification expected during the 21st century." And they remark that these fluctuations also "offer opportunities for adaptation to the organisms involved."¶ Hendriks et al. additionally state that the models upon which the ocean acidification threat is based "focus on bulk water chemistry and fall short of addressing conditions actually experienced by [marine] organisms," which are "separated from the bulk water phase by a diffusive boundary layer," adding that "photosynthetic activity" -- such as that of the zooxanthellae that are hosted by corals -- "depletes pCO2 and raises pH (Kuhl et al., 1995) so that the pH actually experienced by organisms may differ greatly from that in the bulk water phase (Sand-Jensen et al., 1985)."¶ Last of all, the insightful scientists note that "calcification is an active process where biota can regulate intracellular calcium concentrations," so that "marine organisms, like calcifying coccolithophores (Brownlee and Taylor, 2004), actively expel Ca2+ through the ATPase pump to maintain low intracellular calcium concentrations (Corstjens et al., 2001; Yates and Robbins, 1999)." And they say that "as one Ca2+ is pumped out of the cell in exchange for 2H+ pumped into the cell, the resulting pH and Ca2+ concentrations increase the CaCO3 saturation state near extracellular membranes and appear to enhance calcification (Pomar and Hallock, 2008)," so much so, in fact, that they indicate "there is evidence that calcification could even increase in acidified seawater, contradicting the traditional belief that calcification is a critical process impacted by ocean acidification (Findlay et al., 2009)."¶ In summation, Hendriks et al. write that the world's marine biota are "more resistant to ocean acidification than suggested by pessimistic predictions identifying ocean acidification as a major threat to marine biodiversity," noting that this phenomenon "may not be the widespread problem conjured into the 21st century" by the world's climate alarmists. We agree, having reached much the same conclusion back at the turn of the last millennium (Idso et al., 2000). Hence, we are happy to endorse Hendriks et al.'s conclusion that "biological processes can provide homeostasis against changes in pH in bulk waters of the range predicted during the 21st century." Generic

Ocean acidification is important for marine ecosystems Curry ’13 (Judith, “Idso’s Rebuttal to Scott Doney’s Senate Testimony on ‘Ocean Acidification,’” SPPI Blog, 7-21-13, http://sppiblog.org/news/idsos-rebuttal-to-scott-doneys- senate-testimony-on-ocean-acidification) //ER Craig Idso has written comprehensive rebuttal to the NRDC film “Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification.” [link] So what’s the story here? Are coral reefs really in their last decades of existence? Will the shells of other calcifying marine life also dissolve away during our lifetimes? The NRDC film certainly makes it appear that such is the case; but a little scientific sleuthing reveals nothing of substance in this regard. In fact, even a cursory review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that an equally strong case – if not a more persuasive one – can be made for the proposition that the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration will actually prove a boon to calcifying marine life. Sadly, however, the NRDC chose to present an extreme one-sided, propagandized view of ocean acidification; and in this critique we present the part of the story that they clearly don’t want you to know. [25 pages of text, 13 pages of references] From the Conclusions: In conclusion, based on the many real-world observations and laboratory experiments described above, it is clear that recent theoretical claims of impending marine species extinctions, due to increases in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration, have no basis in empirical reality. In fact, these unsupportable contentions are typically refuted by demonstrable facts. As such, the NRDC’s portrayal of CO2-induced ocean acidification as a megadisaster-in-the-making is seen, at best, to be a one-sided distortion of the truth or, at worst, a blatant attempt to deceive the public. Surely, the NRDC and the scientists portrayed in their film should have been aware of at least one of the numerous peer- reviewed scientific journal articles that do not support a catastrophic – or even a problematic – view of the effect of ocean acidification on calcifying marine organisms; and they should have shared that information with the public. If by some slim chance they were not aware, shame on them for not investing the time, energy, and resources needed to fully investigate an issue that has profound significance for the biosphere. And if they did know the results of the studies we have discussed, no one should ever believe a single word they may utter or write in the future. Finally, if there is a lesson to be learned from the materials presented in this document, it is that far too many predictions of CO2-induced catastrophes are looked upon as sure-to-occur, when real-world observations show such doomsday scenarios to be highly unlikely or even virtual impossibilities. The phenomenon of CO2-induced ocean acidification is no different. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not the bane of the biosphere; they are an invaluable boon to the planet’s many life forms. JC comment: So whose view of the ocean acidification is correct: Doney’s or Idso’s? In this instance, it is instructive for me to describe my own reasoning process, since I come to this topic with very little first hand knowledge, beyond understanding the basic chemistry of the problem. When I saw Scott Doney listed as a witness for this hearing, I was very pleased, since he is a scientific heavy hitter on this subject. However, upon reading the first page of his testimony, the following statement raised my skeptical hackles, especially since their was no evidence or reference to support this: Today the surface ocean is almost 30% more acidic than it was in pre-industrial times. I found Doney’s testimony to be highly normative, something that I am not a fan of in testimony by scientists. I did a word search, looking for ‘uncertain’, ‘disagreement’, ‘debate’, ‘unknown’. The only statements I found were: Decisions should incorporate precautionary considerations to account for the fact that potential carbon dioxide thresholds are presently unknown for many aspects of ocean acidification. The potential biological consequences due to acidification are slowly becoming clearer at the level of individual species, but substantial uncertainties remain particularly at the ecosystem level. For these reasons, Doney’s testimony didn’t score too high on my credibility meter, in spite of my acknowledgement of his expertise and stature in the field. I figured that there has to be another side to this story, so I did a quick google search and spotted Idso’s document. Idso’s document clearly states that there is another side to this story. Idso’s approach is more credible IMO, since he acknowledges that there are two sides to the story, that at this point may be equally plausible. I searched for the same 4 words; only spotted one use of ‘unknown’, so I am not sure how useful my little litmus test was.

All their evidence neglects the carry-over effects – which proves that acidification is net- beneficial Parker et. al 11 – Laura M. Parker [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], Pauline M. Ross [Associate Professor at University of Western Sydney] Wayne A. O’Connor [Industry and Investment NSW, Port Stephens Fisheries Centre, Taylors Beach, New South Wales], Larissa Borysko [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], David A. Raftos [Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University], Hans-Otto Pörtner [The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany] (“Adult exposure influences offspring response to ocean acidification in oysters”, July 1, [accepted article for Global Change Biology], P. 3-5)//JFHH One of the great unknowns in ocean acidification research is whether marine organisms will be able to adapt to long-term multigenerational exposure. More specifically, whether long- term chronic exposure of adults to elevated Pco2, can influence the response of their larvae. Indeed, previous studies have found that the rearing environment during the reproductive conditioning of an organism can influence offspring fecundity and survival (Pacific oyster, C. gigas, Lannan 1980; Muranaka and Lannan 1984; asteroid, Luidia clathrata, Hintz and Lawrence 1994; tropical reef damselfish, Pomacentrus amboinensis, McCormick and Gagliano 2008; clam, Ruditapes decussates, Matias et al. 2009; clam, Mercenaria mercinaria, Przeslawski and Webb 2009). For example, Muranaka and Lannan (1984) found that the survival of larvae of the Pacific oyster, C. gigas was greater when broodstock were conditioned at a salinity of 30 compared to 20. Despite this, studies on the impact of ocean acidification on marine organisms to date, have only considered the impacts on ‘adults’ or ‘larvae’ , ignoring the potential link between the two life-history stages and the possible carry- over effects which may be passed from adult to offspring (Dupont et al. 2010; Hendriks et al. 2010; Kroeker et al. 2010). A growing body of literature on marine systems highlights the importance of maternal effects on the survival and success of offspring (Bernardo 1996; Untersee and Pechenik 2007; Marshall 2008; Marshall et al. 2008; Sanford and Kelly 2011). Persistent maternal effects induced by the environment in which the adult was held can lead to a variation in the response of offspring (Sanford and Kelly 2011). For example, in the gastropod, Crepidula convexa juveniles released in the laboratory from adults collected from a copper polluted site were more tolerant to copper stress than juveniles released from a reference site (Untersee and Pechenik 2007). Similar results were also found in the bryozoan, Bugula nerita (Marshall et al. 2010). The current lack of consideration of the potential for carry-over effects or ‘links’ across life-history stages and the importance of maternal effects in the response of marine organisms to ocean acidification, greatly limits our ability to predict whether marine organisms and ecosystems will have the capacity to adapt over the next century. Those studies that have considered the link between other life-history stages (oysters, S. glomerata, C. gigas, Parker et al. 2009; 2010; shrimp, Palaemon pacificus, Kurihara et al. 2008b; amphipod, Echinogammarus marinus, Egilsdottir et al. 2009; barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides, Findlay et al. 2009) generally find negative effects on one life-history stage carried over to the next. Such carry-over begins with the production of gametes; for example, Kurihara et al. (2008b) found that egg production in the shrimp, P. pacificus was suppressed following long-term exposure of adults to elevated Pco2 of 1000 ppm . Within the next generation it continues from fertilisation to larval development; for example, Parker et al. (2009; 2010) found that the negative effects of elevated Pco2 such as increased abnormality and reduced survival on larvae of the oysters, S. glomerata and C. gigas were greater when fertilisation occurred at elevated compared to ambient Pco2. What these studies do not consider is whether such a carry-over effect from adult to larvae can have positive consequences and provide resilience to the next generation when exposed to elevated concentrations of Pco2. It is also unknown how differing genotypes in a population express different parental effects and create greater resilience in offspring. The Sydney rock oyster, S. glomerata is an ecologically and economically significant molluscan species occupying intertidal and shallow sub-tidal estuarine habitats along the south-east coast of Australia. In the state of New South Wales (NSW), S. glomerata forms the largest and oldest aquaculture industry (White 2002), generating approximately US$39 million in retail sales each year (O’Connor et al. 2008). Acute studies on the impact of ocean acidification on wild populations of S. glomerata have shown that the early-life history stages of this species are extremely vulnerable (Parker et al. 2009; 2010). For example, Parker et al. (2009; 2010) found that D-veliger larvae of S. glomerata suffered 100% mortality after only 2 days of rearing at elevated Pco2 of 750 μatm and elevated temperature of 30 C. More recently, newly metamorphosed wild spat were found to have a 64% reduction in shell growth after 4 days at elevated Pco2 (1000 μatm) when compared to wild spat grown in ambient seawater (Parker et al. 2011). In that study populations of S. glomerata that had been produced by selective breeding (to increase growth and overcome pressures such as disease) were more resilient than the wild population to elevated Pco2. Reject all their evidence – none of it assumes the ‘carry-over’ distinction Parker et. al 11 – Laura M. Parker [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], Pauline M. Ross [Associate Professor at University of Western Sydney] Wayne A. O’Connor [Industry and Investment NSW, Port Stephens Fisheries Centre, Taylors Beach, New South Wales], Larissa Borysko [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], David A. Raftos [Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University], Hans-Otto Pörtner [The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany] (“Adult exposure influences offspring response to ocean acidification in oysters”, July 1, [accepted article for Global Change Biology], P. 20-21)//JFHH Despite the importance of carry-over effects in the evolutionary history of marine organisms, none have directly considered the link between adult and offspring when determining an organism’s response to elevated Pco2. Here we show that effects of elevated Pco2 on larvae of the Sydney rock oyster, S. glomerata were considerably lower following acclimation of adults to elevated Pco2 during reproductive conditioning. This suggests that previous studies which have investigated the effects of elevated Pco2 on the larvae of molluscs and other marine organisms may overestimate the severity of their responses. Despite this, the capacity for genetic adaptation may be limited such that elevations in atmospheric Pco2 over the next century will still have negative ecological and economic consequences for the wild population of S. glomerata and potentially other marine invertebrates. In addition, synergistic stressors such as increased temperature and food-limitation may add to the negative effects of ocean acidification. Multi-generational and multi-stressor experiments are needed to anticipate the adaptive capacity of wild S. glomerata and other marine organisms over the next century given the current rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 (Royal Society 2005).

Marine biodiversity survives and strives with acidified and hotter waters Bauman, Baird, and Cavalcante 11 – PhD Candidate at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University. Baird has a PhD in marine ecology and is a professorial research fellow at ARC centre of Excellence for Coral Reef studies at James Cook University. Cavalcante was a researcher at ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral reef studies at James Cook University. (A.G., A.H., G.H., “Coral reproduction in the world’s warmest reefs: southern Persian Gulf (Dubai, United Arab Emirates)”, January 7, Springer-Verlag, P. 410-411)//JFHH The reproductive biology of these six coral species in the southern Persian Gulf was remarkably similar to conspe- cifics elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific (Baird et al. 2009). Coral reproduction was seasonal, with peak reproductive activity in April, corresponding to rising mean SST above 26.5°C. Gametogenic cycles were between 7 and 9 months, and polyp level fecundity was also similar to other regions (Table 1). Consequently, the reproductive biology of these species appears to be well adapted to extreme annual environmental fluctuations in the Gulf. Furthermore, the rapid recovery of Acropora assemblages in the Gulf following recurrent bleaching events in the Gulf (Burt et al. 2008) suggests that sexual reproduction remains the dom- inant reproductive strategy. The adaptive capacity of corals in the Persian Gulf is likely facilitated by a combination of short-term acclimation in individuals during acute envi- ronmental conditions (e.g., recurrent bleaching events) and long-term adaptation among coral populations to chronic environmental conditions (e.g., extreme temperatures). Clearly, these results from the Gulf demonstrate that coral populations can survive and proliferate in extreme condi- tions that are projected to occur in many other regions of the world by the end of this century. Nonetheless, it remains to be established whether populations can adjust in the short time span before such conditions prevail (Hoegh- Guldberg et al. 2007). Gamete release in the southern Persian Gulf is inferred to occur in April and May (northern hemisphere spring), with the highest recorded proportion of mature colonies found in April in both years. Substantial decreases in the total proportion of colonies with mature gametes between April (67%) and May (21%) suggest the majority of spawning activity occurs around the April full moon. Given the high proportion of mature colonies in April prior to the full moon, it is highly probable that there would be some degree of multi-synchronous spawning, if these species behave like they do elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, the presence of mature gametes in May, following the spawning event in April, suggests some individuals also release gametes in around the May full moon. This inference was confirmed by in situ observations of C. microphthalma and P. daedalea spawning in con- secutive months. Similar split spawning events, when coral populations divide spawning over two consecutive months, are common throughout the world including on the Great Barrier Reef (Willis et al. 1985; Baird et al. 2002), Thailand (Kongjandtre et al. 2010), and Japan (Baird et al. 2009b) and Venezuela (Bastidas et al. 2005). The alterna- tive that mature unspawned gametes were reabsorbed after May is much less likely. The reabsorption of mature oocytes is uncommon (cf. Rinkevich and Loya 1979) except perhaps following disturbances such as coral bleaching (Sier and Olive 1994; Michalek-Wagner and Willis 2001) and coral fragmentation (Okubo et al. 2007). Seasonal patterns of coral reproduction in the Gulf are generally consistent with other locations in region, including Saudi Arabia (Fadlallah and Lindo 1988; Fadlallah 1996), Kuwait (Harrison 1995) and the Red Sea (Hanafy et al. 2010). There were, however, subtle differences in spawning times between regions and among species (e.g., Acropora species and non-acroporids). For example, Fadlallah (1996) observed synchronous spawning in A. clathrata in early May, whereas some colonies of A. downingi, A. clathrata and A. valenciennesi were here inferred to have spawned in both April and May. Furthermore, A. downingi and A. arabensis spawned a few nights before the full moon in May, with more extensive spawning in the week following the full moon (Harrison 1995). Harrison (1995) also recor- ded spawning in P. daedalea after the full moon in June. Similarly, C. microphthalma in the present study contained mature oocytes in June prior to the full moon. Irrespective of such differences, evidence suggests that coral assemblages in the southern Persian Gulf exhibit similar synchronous spawning patterns at similar times of the year (i.e., rising SSTs, low wind speeds). Observed differences in repro- ductive timing possibly reflect localized environmental conditions, annual variation or delayed spawning due to latitudinal differences (Harrison and Wallace 1990). Algae Scenario

Ocean acidification key to marine plants and algae Smithsonian 3*– the museum, it cites studies and the content was reviewed by a member of the NOAA (“Ocean Acidification”, Ocean Portal [Smithsonian], http://ocean.si.edu/ocean-acidification)//JFHH *last cited study is 2003 Plants and many algae may thrive under acidic conditions. These organisms make their energy from combining sunlight and carbon dioxide—so more carbon dioxide in the water doesn't hurt them, but helps. Seagrasses form shallow-water ecosystems along coasts that serve as nurseries for many larger fish, and can be home to thousands of different organisms. Under more acidic lab conditions, they were able to reproduce better, grow taller , and grow deeper roots —all good things. However, they are in decline for a number of other reasons—especially pollution flowing into coastal seawater—and it's unlikely that this boost from acidification will compensate entirely for losses caused by these other stresses. Coral Reefs Scenario

Acidification key to coral reefs – calcification Idso and Ferguson ‘9 (Craig, Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Robert, President of Science and Public Policy Institute, “Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems,” 2009, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/acidification.pdf) //ER There are several reasons for expecting a positive coral calcification response to CO2-enhanced symbiont photosynthesis. One mechanism is the opposite of the phenomenon that has been proffered as a cause of future declines in coral calcification rates. This reverse phenomenon is the decrease in extracellular CO2 partial pressure in coral tissues that is driven by the drawdown of aqueous CO2 caused by the photosynthetic process. With CO2 being removed from the water in intimate contact with the coral host via its fixation by photosynthesis (which CO2 drawdown is of far greater significance to the coral than the increase in the CO2 content of the surrounding bulk water that is affected by the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content), the pH and calcium carbonate saturation state of the water immediately surrounding the coral host should rise (Goreau, 1959), enhancing the coral’s calcification rate (Gattuso et al., 1999). And if hydrospheric CO2 enrichment stimulates zooxanthellae photosynthesis to the same degree that atmospheric CO2 enrichment stimulates photosynthesis in terrestrial plants, i.e., by 30 to 50% for a 300 ppm increase in CO2 concentration (Kimball, 1983; Idso 1992, Idso and Idso, 1994), this phenomenon alone would more than compensate for the drop in the calcium carbonate saturation state of the bulk-water of the world’s oceans produced by the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content, which Gattuso et al. (1999) have calculated could lead to a 15% reduction in coral calcification rate for a doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. Another reason why coral calcification may proceed at a higher rate in the presence of CO2- stimulated symbiont photosynthesis is that, while growing more robustly, the zooxanthellae may take up more of the metabolic waste products of the coral host, which, if present in too great quantities, can prove detrimental to the health of the host, as well as the health of the entire coral plant-animal assemblage (Yonge, 1968; Crossland and Barnes, 1974). There are also a number of other substances that are known to directly interfere with calcium carbonate precipitation; and they too can be actively removed from the water by coral symbionts in much the same way that symbionts remove host waste products (Simkiss, 1964). More importantly, perhaps, a greater amount of symbiont-produced photosynthates may provide more fuel for the active transport processes involved in coral calcification (Chalker and Taylor, 1975), as well as more raw materials for the synthesis of the coral organic matrix (Wainwright, 1963; Muscatine, 1967; Battey and Patton, 1984). Finally, the photosynthetic process helps to maintain a healthy aerobic or oxic environment for the optimal growth of the coral animals (Rinkevich and Loya, 1984; Rands et al., 1992); and greater CO2- induced rates of symbiont photosynthesis would enhance this important “environmental protection activity.” With ever more CO2 going into the air, driving ever more CO2 into the oceans, increasingly greater rates of coral symbiont photosynthesis should be seen, due to the photosynthesis-stimulating effect of hydrospheric CO2 enrichment. And this phenomenon, in turn, should increasingly enhance all of the many positive photosynthetic-dependent phenomena described previously and thereby increase coral calcification rates. Furthermore, it could increase these rates well beyond the point of overpowering the modest negative effect of the purely chemical consequences of elevated dissolved CO2 on ocean pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. However, arriving at these conclusions is not as simple as it sounds. For one thing, although many types of marine plant life do indeed respond to hydrospheric CO2 enrichment (Raven et aI., 1985) — including seagrasses (Zimmerman et al., 1997), certain diatoms (Riebesell et al., 1993; Chen and Gao, 2004; Sobrino et al., 2008), macroalgae (Borowitzka and Larkum, 1976; Gao et al,, 1993), and microalgae or phytoplankton (Raven, 1991; Nimer and Merrett, 1993) — the photosynthesis of many marine autotrophs is normally not considered to be carbon-limited, because of the large supply of bicarbonate in the world’s oceans (Raven, 1997). However, as Gattuso et al. (1999) explain, this situation is only true for autotrophs that possess an effective carbon-concentrating mechanism; but to swing once again in the other direction, it is also believed that many coral symbionts are of this type (Burns et aI., 1983; Al- Moghrabi et al., 1996; Goiran et aI., 1996). Nevertheless, Gattuso et aI. (1999) reported that coral zooxanthellae — in another grand example of adaptation — are able to change their mechanism of carbon supply in response to various environmental stimuli. Furthermore, Beardall et al. (1998) suggest that an increased concentration of dissolved CO, together with an increase in the rate of CO2 generation by bicarbonate dehydration in host cells, may favor a transition to the diffusional mode of carbon supply, which is sensitive to hydrospheric CO2 concentration. Consequently, if such a change in mode of carbon supply were to occur — prompted, perhaps, by hydrospheric CO2 enrichment itself — this shift in CO2 fixation strategy would indeed allow the several biological mechanisms described above to operate to enhance reef calcification rates in response to a rise in the air’s CO2 content. In one final example that demonstrates the importance of biology in driving the physical- chemical process of coral calcification, Muscatine et al. (2005) note that the “photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification,” and that long-term reef calcification rates have generally been observed to rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production, which they say may well be enhanced by increases in the air’s CO2 concentration. Muscatine et al. begin the report of their investigation of the subject by stating much the same thing, i.e., that endosymbiotic algae "release products of photosynthesis to animal cells ... and augment the rate of skeletal calcification." Then, noting that the "natural abundance of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) has answered paleobiological and modern questions about the effect of photosymbiosis on sources of carbon and oxygen in coral skeletal calcium carbonate," they go on to investigate the natural abundance of these isotopes in another coral skeletal compartment - the skeletal organic matrix (OM) - in 17 species of modern scleractinian corals, after which they compare the results for symbiotic and nonsymbiotic forms to determine the role played by algae in OM development. The significance of this study, in the words of Muscatine et al., is because "the scleractinian coral skeleton is a two-phase composite structure consisting of fiber-like crystals of aragonitic calcium carbonate intimately associated with an intrinsic OM," and although the OM generally comprises less than 0.1% of the total weight of the coral skeleton, it is, in their words, "believed to initiate nucleation of calcium carbonate and provide a framework for crystallographic orientation and species-specific architecture." In fact, they say that inhibition of OM synthesis "brings coral calcification to a halt." In commenting on what was learned from their experiments, the authors say their "most striking observation is the significant difference in mean OM δ15N between symbiotic and nonsymbiotic corals," which makes OM δ15N an important proxy for photosymbiosis. As an example of its usefulness, they applied the technique to a fossil coral (Pachythecalis major) from the Triassic (which prevailed some 240 million years ago), finding that the ancient coral was indeed photosymbiotic. Even more importantly, however, they conclude in the final sentence of their paper that "it now seems that symbiotic algae may control calcification by both modification of physico-chemical parameters within the coral polyps (Gautret et al., 1997; Cuif et al., 1999) and augmenting the synthesis of OM (Allemand et al., 1998)." Although lacking the research to absolutely identify the “what” and definitively describe the “how” of the hypothesis of hydrospheric CO2 enhancement of coral calcification, it is likely that something of the nature described above can indeed act to overcome the negative effect of the high-CO2-induced decrease in calcium carbonate saturation state on coral calcification rate. It has been clearly demonstrated, for example, that corals can grow quite well in aquariums containing water of very high dissolved CO2 concentration (Atkinson et al., 1995); and Carlson (1999) has stated that the fact that corals often thrive in such water “seems to contradict conclusions ... that high CO2 may inhibit calcification.” And there are numerous other examples of such phenomena in the real world of nature, which are examined next.

Acidification leads to coral reef expansion – Japan proves WCR 11 – World Climate Report (“Coral Reefs Expand As the Oceans Warm”, World Climate Report, February 18, http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/02/18/coral-reefs- expand-as-the-oceans-warm/)//JFHH But for the rest of us, the following news will fit nicely into the world view that the earth’s ecosystems and are robust , adaptable and opportunistic , as opposed to being fragile, readily broken, and soon to face extinction at the hand of anthropogenic climate change. A hot-off-the-presses paper in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters by a team of Japanese scientists finds that warming oceans expand the range of tropical corals northward along the coast of Japan . At the same time, the corals are remaining stable at the southern end of their ranges. That’s right. Corals are adapting to climate change and expanding , not contracting. But, you don’t have to take our word for it. Here is the news, straight from the authors: We show the first large-scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century-long measurements of in situ sea-surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s , whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year , which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral-reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress. This certainly throws buckets of cold water on all the overly heated talk about how the decline in coral reefs as a result of anthropogenic global warming is going to decimate fisheries and tourism the world over. Perhaps it actually will have a negative impact in some locales, but in others, it seems that it could have quite the opposite effect. And it is this opposite effect—a positive impact of coral reef communities and their dependents—that is routinely left out of climate change impact assessments. For instance, when the infamous first draft of the still infamous Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program was released for public comments, it included this bit of text from the “Society” chapter (page 47 of the report): “A changing climate will mean reduced opportunities for many of the activities that Americans hold dear. For example, coldwater fish species such as salmon and trout that are popular with fishermen will have reduced habitat in a warmer world, and coral reefs are already severely compromised. Hunting opportunities will change as animals’ habitats shift and as relationships among species in natural communities are disrupted by their different responses to rapid climate change.” We submitted the following two comments (from among our 75+ pages of comments that we submitted) in regards to that rather bit of gloomy text: Specific comment 78. Chapter Society, page 47, Second paragraph, first sentence Comment: Enough with the pessimism. Recommendation: Change the sentence to read “A changing climate may mean reduced opportunities for some activities and increased opportunities for many other of the activities that Americans hold dear.” Specific comment 79. Chapter Society, page 47, Second paragraph, second sentence, “…coral reefs are already severely compromised.” Comment: Warming SSTs along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic shores should encourage coral reefs to expand northward. In fact, evidence of northerly range expansion of elkhorn and staghorn has recently been reported (Precht, W.F., and R.B. Aronson, 2004. Climate flickers and range shifts of reef corals. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2, 307-314). Currently, the southern portions of Florida define climatologically the northernmost portion of the coral habitat in the western Atlantic, a warming climate presents the opportunity for a habitat expansion that could bring corals further northward and closer to the U.S. mainland. Since coral reefs represent a major tourist destination, not only would a northward range expansion be a benefit to the corals themselves, but may well also represent enhanced economic opportunities along the southeastern U.S. coast. Recommendation: Update the paragraph on the changing patterns of recreational activities to include the likelihood that coral reefs will expand northward into U.S. coastal waters and increase recreational opportunities associated with them. As it now stands, the statement fails to meet the authors’ claim of providing the “best available science” and of conveying “the most relevant and up-to-date information possible” and otherwise violates applicable objectivity requirements. Apparently our comments had some impact, but not to the full extent that we intended. Indeed, in the final version of the USGCRP report, the first sentence of the quoted passage above was changed to “A changing climate will mean reduced opportunities for some activities and locations and expanded opportunities for others.” So far so good. The next sentence in the final report is “Hunting and fishing will change as animals’ habitats shift and as relationships among species in natural communities are disrupted by their different responses to rapid climate change.” In other words, the powers that be at the USGCRP decided to drop the whole part about coral reefs, rather than having to include a discussion about the potential benefits of climate change (but don’t be so naïve to think that they dropped the potential negative impacts on coral reefs from the entire report—oh no, they have a section dedicated to those in the “Coral reefs” portion of the “Ecosystems” chapter—with nary a mention of possible (probable) range expansion and concomitant expanded economic possibilities). Such is the nature of the vast majority of climate change assessment reports—emphasize the negatives and downplay or completely ignore the positives. But this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to the dedicated readers of World Climate Report. Nor should the realization that the expansion of coral reefs in Japan is but a single example of organisms responding positively to the benefits and opportunities presented by a changing climate. We have covered many other examples in the past, and we promise even more examples in the days, months, years to come.

Acidification leads to reef expanision – Japan proves Yamano, Sugihara, and Nomura 11 – Yamano has a PhD in science and is the Head of Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Sugihara is a researcher for the Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Nomura has a job/researchs for the Kushimoto Marine Park Center (Hiroya, Kaoru, and Keiichi, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, February 17, P.2-5)//JFHH [8] Four species categories of the nine selected showed poleward range expansion since the 1930s , whereas the other five remained stable (Figure 2), indicating no southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The estimated settlement years of the colonies of expanded species (Table 1) provide further evidence of recent expansions. Of the expanded spe- cies, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora muricata are key species for reef formation in tropical Indo‐ Pacific regions [Hongo and Kayanne, 2011; Montaggioni, 2005], and clearly indicate the expansion of tropical species ranges to temperate areas. Note that all of the expanded species have been in IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) extinction risk categories of “Near Threatened” or “Vulner- able” since 1998, when temperature‐induced mass bleaching occurred [Carpenter et al., 2008] (Table 1). Adult colonies in these regions exhibited spawning [Mezaki et al., 2007; van Woesik, 1995], indicating that corals newly settled as a result of expansion have the potential to reproduce and expand farther northward . Thus, temperate areas may serve as refugia for tropical corals in an era of global warming, while corals in tropical areas suffer declines because of rising SSTs [Hoegh‐Guldberg et al., 2007]. Rising sea surface temperatures benefit coral reefs – empirics prove Woodroffe et. al 10 – Woodroffe is a professor at the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Wollongong. Brendan Brooke is a Geoscientist in Australia. David Kennedy is a professor at the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences at Victoria University. Quan Hua is an affiliate of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization. Jian-xin Zhao is a professor at the Radiogenic Isotope Facility, Centre for Microscopy and Microanalysis at the University of Queensland (Colin D. Woodroffe, Brendan P. Brooke, Michelle Linklater, David M. Kennedy, Brian G. Jones, Cameron Buchanan, Richard Mleczko, Quan Hua, and Jian‐xin Zhao, “Response of coral reefs to climate change: Expansion and demise of the southernmost Pacific coral reef”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, August, P.1)//JFHH [1] Coral reefs track sea level and are particularly sensitive to changes in climate. Reefs are threatened by global warming, with many experiencing increased coral bleaching. Warmer sea surface temperatures might enable reef expansion into mid latitudes. Here we report multibeam sonar and coring that reveal an extensive relict coral reef around Lord Howe Island, which is fringed by the southernmost reef in the Pacific Ocean. The relict reef, in water depths of 25–50 m, flourished in early Holocene and covered an area more than 20

times larger than the modern reef . Radiocarbon and uranium‐series dating indicates that corals grew between 9000 and 7000 years ago . The reef was subsequently drowned, and backstepped to its modern limited extent. This relict reef, with localised re ‐establishment of corals in the past three millennia, could become a substrate for reef expansion in response to warmer temperatures , anticipated later this century and beyond, if corals are able to recolonise its surface. Citation: Woodroffe, C. D., B. P. Brooke, M. Linklater, D. M. Kennedy, B. G. Jones, C. Buchanan, R. Mleczko, Q. Hua, and J. Zhao (2010), Response of coral reefs to climate

Ocean acidification benefits coral – coral shift and expansion and 80 years of empirics prove Yamano, Sugihara, and Nomura 11 – Yamano has a PhD in science and is the Head of Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Sugihara is a researcher for the Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Nomura has a job/researchs for the Kushimoto Marine Park Center (Hiroya, Kaoru, and Keiichi, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, February 17, P.1)//JFHH [1] Rising temperatures caused by climatic warming may cause poleward range shifts and/or expansions in species distribution . Tropical reef corals (hereafter corals) are some of the world’s most important species , being not only primary producers, but also habitat ‐forming species, and thus fun- damental ecosystem modification is expected according to changes in their distribution. Although most studies of cli- mate change effects on corals have focused on temperature ‐ induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas. We show the first large ‐ scale evidence of the poleward range expansion of modern corals, based on 80 years of national records from the temperate areas of Japan, where century‐ long measurements of in situ sea‐surface temperatures have shown statistically significant rises. Four major coral species categories, including two key species for reef formation in tropical areas, showed poleward range expansions since the 1930s, whereas no species demonstrated southward range shrinkage or local extinction. The speed of these expansions reached up to 14 km/year , which is far greater than that for other species. Our results, in combination with recent findings suggesting range expansions of tropical coral‐reef associated organisms, strongly suggest that rapid, fundamental modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be in progress. Citation: Yamano, H., K. Sugihara, and K. Nomura (2011), Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04601, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474. Coral is crucial to ecosystems Yamano, Sugihara, and Nomura 11 – Yamano has a PhD in science and is the Head of Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Sugihara is a researcher for the Biodiversity Conservation Planning Section for the Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies. Nomura has a job/researchs for the Kushimoto Marine Park Center (Hiroya, Kaoru, and Keiichi, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures”, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, February 17, P.1)//JFHH [3] Corals play a fundamental role in primary production and habitat formation for numerous other species in tropical and subtropical areas. Thus, their poleward range expansions due to climatic warming could cause fundamental modifica- tions of temperate coastal ecosystems. Although most studies of climate change effects on corals have focused on temper- ature‐induced coral bleaching in tropical areas, poleward range shifts and/or expansions may also occur in temperate areas, as suggested by geological records and present‐day eyewitnesses in several localities [Greenstein and Pandolfi, 2008; Precht and Aronson, 2004]. In addition to their importance in ecosystem function , corals are also sensitive detectors of long ‐ term climatic warming effects. Adult coral colonies are sessile, and several years after larval settlement are required for a colony to develop sufficiently to be re- cognised in situ. Corals are basically long‐lived, but are extremely sensitive to temperature. Both high and low tem- peratures can lead to bleaching, which causes coral mortality [Hoegh‐Guldberg et al., 2005]. Therefore, detection of range shifts and/or expansions of corals would provide solid base- lines to discuss changes of coastal marine biodiversity and ecosystems in temperate areas. Jellyfish Scenario

Ocean acidification key to jellyfish population Derbyshire 10 (David, “Jellyfish are taking over the oceans: Population surge as rising acidity of world's seas kills predators”, Mail Online, December 3, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1335337/Jelly-fish-alert-Population-surge-rising- acidity-worlds-oceans-kills-predators.html)//JFHH Britain's beaches could soon be inundated with records numbers of jellyfish, marine experts warned today. Scientists say the number of jellyfish are on the rise thanks to the increasing acidity of the world’s oceans. The warning comes in a new report into ocean acidification – an often overlooked side effect of burning fossil fuel. Studies have shown that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doesn’t just trigger climate change but can make the oceans more acid. A jellyfish floats in the Mediterranean sea on the west coast of the Spanish island of Mallorca Since the start of the industrial revolution, acidity levels of the oceans have gone up 30 per cent, marine biologists say. The new report, published by the UN Environment Programme during the Climate Change talks in Cancun, Mexico, warns that the acidification of oceans makes it harder for coral reefs and shellfish to form skeletons – threatening larger creatures that depend on them for food. The decline in creatures with shells could trigger an explosion in jellyfish populations. The report, written by Dr Carol Turley of Plymouth University, said: ‘Ocean acidification has also been tentatively linked to increased jellyfish numbers and changes in fish abundance.’ Jellyfish are immune to the effects of acidification . As other species decline, jellyfish will move in to fill the ecological niche.

Jellyfish population key to paper towels Shamah 14 (David, “Israeli tech turns jellyfish into paper towels”, Times of Israel, 4/8, http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-tech-turns-jellyfish-into-paper-towels/)//JFHH Cine’al Ltd., an Israeli nanotechnology start-up, is developing technology to turn jellyfish into “super- absorbers,” making the much-disdained sea creature suitable for use in diapers , tampons , medical sponges , even paper towels . Jellyfish have been the bane of Israeli beaches in recent years, as warmer ocean temperatures have made coastal waters more hospitable for the creatures. During spring and early summer, millions of them appear near beaches , shoot their poison into the water and make swimming next to impossible. Where jellyfish abound, the water is likely to be empty. Unlike most sea creatures, jellyfish are mostly useless. Some species are eaten in the Far East and mucin, a chemical extracted from the creatures, is used in drug delivery systems . For the most part, they’re useless, even dangerous, pests, as jellyfish swarm not only near beaches, but near intake pipes as well, often clogging them up . This happened last November in Sweden, when jellyfish got into the pipes and clogged up the water intake systems of a nuclear power generator in Sweden, forcing it to shut down . Cine’al sees a potential use for the scourge. Hydromash, the dry, flexible, strong material Cine’al is developing, is made from jellyfish and is allegedly several times more absorbent than the “quicker picker-upper” paper towels from the popular TV commercials. “Right now, these items are made of synthetics, which take hundreds and thousands of years to break down ,” said Ofer Du-Nour, chairman and president of Cine’al and head of investment firm Capital Nano. The latter invests in early-stage nanotechnology companies that are based on research emerging from Israeli universities. “The technologies we chose [in the medical and environmental fields] are proven technologies. The only issue is the engineering to bring the products to market,” Du-Nour said. “We cherry-picked through thousands of companies to find these.” Du-Nour’s product is based on research done by Tel Aviv University’s Dr. Shachar Richter. “ One third of disposable waste in dumps consists of diapers ,” Du-Nour said. “In its first year, a newborn baby generates, on average, 70 kilos of diapers a year , maybe more.” Highly absorbent products are made of synthetic materials such as super-absorbing polymers (SAP). The challenge was to find a bio-degradable material that was at least as absorbent. TAU researchers found the solution in jellyfish, composed of 90 percent water, living constantly in water and with bodies that can absorb and hold high volume of liquids without disintegrating or dissolving . Using nano-materials, the researchers’ process converts the jellyfish into Hydromash, which absorbs high volumes of water and blood in seconds. The process also adds nano-particles which allow for the addition of anti-bacterial and tissue-healing attributes, flexibility , colors , scents and more . The result is a product that absorbs several times its volume , bio-degrades in less than 30 days and can compete with SAP on price , Du-Nour said. It’s perfectly safe , he added, and offers a potential to clear up landfills and clear the oceans of the endless swarms of jellyfish , which can now be seen as commodities worth harvesting instead of pests. But will people go for it? Will mothers agree to put a “jellyfish diaper” on their baby’s behind or use a jellyfish-based sanitary napkin on themselves? Du-Nour thinks so. “I’m not worried about this, and in many products it’s likely that the consumer won’t even know about it, similar to many other products with ingredients that are derived from animals and plants. “In fact, I think the use of this could eventually be required by governments that are spending millions of dollars to keep jellyfish out of tourist and harbor areas,” Du-Nour said. “ There are too many jellyfish in the sea , and too many Pampers in landfills . Cine’al may have the ultimate answer to both those issues .” Laundry List

Reject all their offense – ocean acidification is good Anthoni 7 – PhD in computer science, underwater cinematographer, and a marine ecologist (J Floor, “Are oceans becoming more acidic and is this a threat to marine life?”, http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm)//JFHH One of the important variables in this chemical balance is carbon dioxide CO2. As CO2 dissolves in water, the water becomes mildly acidic (clean rain water has a pH=5.6 to 6; in the diagram 5.7), enough in fact to dissolve calcium from soils and to create dripstone formations inside caves while it evaporates. Intuitively one may think that a doubling in CO2 would result in a doubling of acidity but this is not the case as this graph shows. Without CO2, pure rain water would have a neutral pH of 7.0, and that is where the graph begins on left. Initially CO2 is very willing to dissolve, thereby rapidly acidifying the otherwise pure water, but eventually this slows down. The red dot is placed at the current situation with CO2 around 350ppm at average temperature and pressure. From here a doubling in CO2 will contribute to a much reduced acidification of only 0.15 pH units or an increase in acidity of around 30%. Note that this is not just a theoretical curve but has been measured by titration. This behaviour of CO2 also applies to sea water, but here the situation is much more complicated due to the buffering effect of limestone. CO2 'binds' with water like: CO2 + H2O <=> H2CO3 <=> H+ + HCO3- <=> H+ + H+ + CO32- In this equilibrium equation the double arrow <=> means 'in balance' (equilibrium) or that the chemical reaction can move both ways. The symbols H, O and C stand for hydrogen, oxygen and carbon and their numbers are given by the digit following. The superscripted + and - and 2- symbol denotes their ionised states with loose electrons. In the right hand side are more H+ ions, which are measured by a pH meter as 'more acidic'. Of the four 'states' that CO2 can assume, carbondioxide CO2 is a mere 1%, bicarbonate HCO3 is 93% and carbonate CO3 8% . But the total amount of carbon dissolved in the oceans is just short of 40,000Gt (Pg) compared with less than 700Gt in the atmosphere. The sea is a massive carbon dioxide reservoir, in balance with an even more massive limestone reservoir of 40,000,000Gt carbon in marine sediments . Note that the above equations depend somewhat on pressure and also on temperature. The graph shows how CO2 dissolves according to temperature in an atmosphere of pure CO2, but degassing can be assumed to behave similarly for lesser concentrations (60/2000= 3% per degree C; some say 4%). Applied to an ocean of 38,000 Gt CO2, would equate to 1140Gt/ºC or 12/44 x 1140 = 311GtC/ºC. Note that gigaton Gt, one billion metric tonnes, is the same measure as petagram Pg, but we'll use Gt in this chapter and that the atmospher now holds about 700Gt carbon. [To convert from CO2 to C, multiply by 12/44.] Note also that these measurements hold for pure water and 100% CO2 and are not necessarily valid for sea water and low concentrations of CO2. Note also that human emissions are about 7GtC per year. <> This equation is a gross simplification of the seawater system because seawater has many more elements that are likely to play a role. One of these is Calcium (Ca2+) which 'binds' with CO3 like: Ca2+ + CO32- <=> CaCO3 to form limestone as in corals and shells. There exist several forms of limestone, but this is only a finer point (aragonite, calcite, magnesium calcite, ...). The production of limestone by organisms is called calcification. De-calcification on the other hand can be done either by organisms who calcify (echinoderms for instance) or those who dissolve limestone (boring sponges, worms, molluscs, many bacteria) and it can also happen chemically without organisms (coral sand dissolving back into sea water). It is thought that the carbondioxide in the sea exists in equilibrium with that of exposed rock and bottomsediment containing limestone CaCO3 (or sea shells for that matter). In other words, that the element calcium exists in equilibrium with CO3. But the concentration of Ca (411ppm) is 10.4 mmol/l and that of all CO2 species (90ppm) 2.05 mmol/l, of which CO3 is about 6%, thus 0.12 mmol/l. Thus the sea has a vast oversupply of calcium . It is difficult therefore to accept that decalcification could be a problem as CO3 increases. To the contrary, it should be of benefit to calcifying organisms. Thus the more CO2, the more limestone is deposited . This has also been borne out by measurements (Budyko 1977). The bit missing at the beginning is that CO2 (atmosphere) <=> CO2 (sea water) or in other words, that the carbondioxide in the air is in balance with that in the surface water, which has not been proved. Note in this respect that rising water temperatures will expel CO2 from this huge reservoir and in doing so, also raise acidity. It is reasoned that if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere rises, then more of it will dissolve in the water, working all the way through the chemical reactions, to an increase in acidity and an increase in carbonate CO3. Scientists believe that the sea in pre-industrial times was 'saturated' relative to dissolved limestone, and that recent increases in CO2 have 'desaturated' the sea (beginning in the antarctic sea), with possible dire consequences for sea life. But we have observed that calcium skeletons dissolve back into what scientists call 'saturated' CO3. My personal experience with acidity in the ocean stems from many pH measurements that led to the discovery of half a dozen elementary ecological laws that, if confirmed, would turn the whole acid ocean debate on its head. It would in fact send most publications on this subject to the dustbin. That was in 2005, and mainstream scientists have not reacted since. So let's review what these discoveries are about (read the DDA chapter): The most important ecological factor in the sea has been overlooked: the guild of decomposing bacteria. They are very active and cause disease and infection. The health of sea water depends on their numbers as all marine organisms live in a delicate balance between the food that plankton brings (soup) and the chance of dying from decomposing bacteria (sewage). Each sea organism thus lives in a precarious balance between the good life (thick soup) and a long life (thin sewage), which are in conflict with one another. This is what I named the plankton balance. Alkalinity in the ocean depends substantially on the plankton balance in which the pH results from autotrophs (plants) using hydrogen ions and driving the pH up, while decomposers return hydrogen ions, thus driving the pH down . The daily rhythm can amount to 0.4pH units (250%), and the difference between estuaries and the open sea as much as 1-2 units (1000-10,000%). It is important to keep this in mind, as one can find healthy calcification in shells in these conditions. When seas become eutrophied (overnourished), they also become more acidic due to high levels of decomposing bacteria and their work. Particularly coastal seas show this. The most important limiting factor in aquatic ecosystem is the dearth of hydrogen ions (H+), which has also been overlooked. The more acidic the water, the higher biological productivity becomes , and the denser the amount of life . In the sea this is borne out by the observed fact that highly productive upwelling areas are more acidic [note 1 below]. In other words, acidic seas are a good thing. A serious scientific mistake was not recognising that decomposition cannot completely break organic matter down into inorganic salts. There are conversion losses and the second law of thermodynamics forbids this. So there is an intermediate organic molecule that is neither a nutrient for plants (dissolved salts), nor food for bacteria. My measurements showed that the sea is awash in this mysterious substance that I named slush. In fact the biomass in slush is far larger than all life on Earth combined. Reader please note that this is a very serious omission by mainstream science, and cannot be disproved! The other 5 laws tie in closely with this. Life on this planet would never have been possible, if slush could not be decomposed further. The only way for this to happen is when plants team up with decomposing bacteria in the act of symbiotic decomposition, where the missing energy is supplied by the plant to allow decomposers to complete the last step in decomposition. This explains how corals can grow where nutrients are severely limited , and it explains why seaweeds are more productive with symbiotic decomposition than without . The most important benefit obtained from symbiotic decomposition is firstly hydrogen ions, since these are in shortest supply, and secondly nutrients, and finally CO2 in a form ready to use. The hydrogen ions lower pH on the skins of marine plants (and some phytoplankton), as well as on the skins of coral polyps. In this cocoon of reduced pH, these organisms can be more productive than without. Osyters Scenario

Ocean acidification is good for larvae – size, development rate, maternal energy investment Parker et. al 11 – Laura M. Parker [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], Pauline M. Ross [Associate Professor at University of Western Sydney] Wayne A. O’Connor [Industry and Investment NSW, Port Stephens Fisheries Centre, Taylors Beach, New South Wales], Larissa Borysko [School of Science, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney], David A. Raftos [Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University], Hans-Otto Pörtner [The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany] (“Adult exposure influences offspring response to ocean acidification in oysters”, July 1, [accepted article for Global Change Biology], P. 16-19)//JFHH This study has found that the response of S. glomerata larvae to long-term exposure to elevated Pco2 varies depending on the oyster population and the environment of adults during reproductive conditioning. In our study, larvae of the selectively bred oysters were more resilient to the effects of elevated Pco2 than wild larvae, but in general larvae that were spawned from adults conditioned at elevated Pco2 were also more resilient to the effects of elevated Pco2 than larvae spawned from adults conditioned at ambient Pco2. For example, when larvae were reared at elevated Pco2 they were up to 10% larger in size and had a faster rate of development (but similar survival) when they were spawned from adults conditioned at elevated Pco2, compared to adults conditioned at ambient Pco2. After 19 days of exposure, wild larvae that were spawned from adults conditioned at elevated Pco2 and were subsequently reared at elevated Pco2 were larger in size than wild larvae spawned from adults conditioned at ambient Pco2 that were reared at ambient Pco2. This suggests that there are carry-over effects from adults exposed to elevated Pco2 which may help to compensate or reduce the negative effects of elevated Pco2 on size and rate of development of mollusc larvae as found in previous acute studies (Kurihara et al. 2008a; Parker et al. 2009; 2010; Gazeau et al. 2010). Acclimation of offspring due to history of exposure of the adults has been documented for marine invertebrates exposed to environmental stresses such as salinity (Davis 1958; Bacon 1971; Muranaka and Lannan 1984; Hintz and Lawrence 1994; Allen et al. 2008). For example, Bacon (1971) found that when embryos of the barnacle, Balanus eburneus were exposed to high or low salinity, the resulting larvae had an increased survival at adverse salinity of a similar level. Further, in the oyster Crassostrea virginica, the optimum salinity and salinity range for development of embryos and larvae was influenced by the salinity at which the adults were held prior to spawning (Davis 1958). The benefits of exposing adults to elevated Pco2 during reproductive conditioning in this study were not only seen in larvae that were subsequently reared at elevated Pco2, but also in larvae that were reared at ambient Pco2. Across both Pco2 treatments, larvae spawned from adults conditioned at elevated Pco2 were generally larger and developed faster than larvae spawned from adults conditioned at ambient Pco2 (although survival was similar). Changes in phenotypic traits of offspring following exposure of adults to environmental stress, such as those seen here, are often linked to an adaptive maternal effect (Untersee and Pechenik 2007; Marshall et al. 2010; Sanford and Kelly 2011). Mothers can respond to environmental stress by increasing maternal energy investment per offspring thereby increasing offspring size , a trait which is often considered to be beneficial for offspring (Podolsky and Moran 2006; Allen et al. 2008; Moran and McAllister 2009). In marine organisms with planktotrophic larval stages such as S. glomerata, maternal investment is limited to eggs prior to liberation with larger egg size typically leading to larger sized larvae (Podolsky and Moran 2006; Moran and McAllister 2009). Increases in egg size of marine invertebrates have been documented following exposure of adults to environmental stresses including reduced temperature and intraspecific competition (Allen et al. 2008; Moran and McAllister 2009). This adaptive strategy can reduce the time that larvae spend in the water column , reduce their dependence on exogenous food and provide them with a competitive advantage following settlement (Allen et al. 2008; Moran and McAllister 2009). One disadvantage of such an investment, however, is that it can come at a cost to fecundity, with fewer larger eggs produced by a mother in contrast to more numerous smaller eggs (Allen et al. 2008). In this study, gametes needed to be obtained from adults via strip spawning, which makes it impossible to accurately determine fecundity. The effects of elevated Pco2 may also vary among and within populations. Parker et al. (2011) reported that the selectively bred Sydney rock oyster population used in this study was more resilient than the wild population following acute exposure to elevated Pco2. Here we showed that long-term exposure of larvae to elevated Pco2 led to similar effects. The selectively bred larvae of S. glomerata exhibited greater survival and growth and had a faster rate of development than the wild larvae when grown at elevated as well as ambient Pco2. This demonstrates that there is variation in response to ocean acidification within a population (Parker et al. 2011; Waldbusser et al. 2010). The differences in the response of the two populations may largely be due to an inherited genetic effect which leads to a higher standard metabolic rate (SMR). SMR of the adults used in this study increased following 5 weeks of exposure to elevated compared ambient Pco2. This result was similar to those found on other adult oyster species including C. gigas (Lannig et al. 2010) and C. virginica (Beniash et al. 2010) during exposure to elevated Pco2 and is thought to occur due to a higher energy allocation to homeostasis (Beniash et al. 2010). Mechanisms and processes benefiting from a higher SMR would be ion and acid-base regulation, protein synthesis and growth (Pörtner 2008). A comparison between the wild and selectively bred oysters showed that the SMR of the selectively bred oysters was greater than that of the wild, particularly during exposure to elevated Pco2. A higher SMR may carry-over into larval development and provide selectively bred larvae of S. glomerata with a quicker and more complete compensation of homeostatic disturbances induced by elevated Pco2. We do not know, however, whether the SMR of the larval generation was similar to their parents and whether “carry-over” effects exist. Elevated SMR may be one of the mechanisms responsible for higher resilience of oysters, and potentially other marine organisms to elevated Pco2. Phytoplankton Scenario

Ocean acidification is beneficial – phytoplankton blooms and sustained oceanic food webs Levitan et. al 7 – O. Levitan (PhD Aquatic Ecology), G. Rosenberg, and Berman Frank (Associate Professor) are faculty at Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences at Bar Ilan University in Israel and I. Setlik, E. Setlikova, J. Grigel, J Klepetar, and O. Parsil work at the Institute of microbiology MBU AVCR and Trebon and Institute of Physical biology at the University of South Bohemia in the Czech Republic (“Elevated CO2 enhances and growth in the marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium”, Global Change Biology, P. 531 – 532)//JFHH The anthropogenic increase in atmospheric pCO2 con- centrations has raised surface seawater concentrations of CO2(aq), thereby altering the aquatic carbonate sys- tem. Thus, with the forecasted rise in pCO2 from the current � 365 to � 700 ppm in 2100, surface seawater pH is expected to drop from 8.2 to 7.9 (Zeebe & Wolf-Gladrow, 2001). Acidification and the enhanced CO2 could stimulate primary production (Hein & Sand-Jensen, 1997; Leonardos & Geider, 2005), sub- sequently affecting many facets of oceanic biota and the global biogeochemical cycles either via specific physiological responses of organism’s physiology and/or via food web control. Among the principal players contributing to global aquatic primary production, the nitrogen (N)-fixing organisms (diazotrophs) are important providers of new N to the oligotrophic areas of the ocean. Cyano- bacterial (phototrophic) diazotrophs in particular fuel primary production and phytoplankton blooms which sustain oceanic food-webs and major economies and impact global carbon (C) and N cycling (Dugdale & Goering, 1967; Falkowski, 1997; Gruber & Sarmiento, 1997; Karl et al., 1997). Studies on terrestrial diazotrophs show a complex response to an enriched CO2 atmosphere. Several spe- cies responded to enriched CO2 with increased N fixa- tion (Marilley et al., 1999; Dakora & Drake, 2000; Luscher et al., 2000). In natural systems other environ- mental factors may reduce the effects of enhanced CO2. This was the case in an oak-associated leguminous vine Galactia elliottii where an initial 1 year increase in N fixation was reversed and a long- term decline (7 years) followed; potentially due to reduced Fe and Mo avail- ability to the N-fixing G. elliottii resulting from in- creased nutrient accumulation in oak biomass and in organic forms in the soil (Hungate et al., 2004). Thus, if required nutrients and trace elements are not limited, increased N-fixation rates will likely lead to enhanced N availability in soils, ultimately leading to large CO2- induced increases in agro- and natural ecosystem pro- ductivity. In contrast to terrestrial studies, scarce published data exist examining the influence of elevated CO2 levels on aquatic diazotrophy. This is surprising as a large body of research is found on cyanobacterial adaptations to limiting CO2 concentrations. Many of these studies, including some using diazotrophs as model species, focus on how inorganic C (Ci) uptake is influenced by varying atmospheric or dissolved CO2. From these studies, aquatic cyanobacterial photosynthesis and growth is generally perceived as saturated by ambient Ci concentrations due to the intracellular presence of a C concentrating mechanism (CCM) which has evolved to provide and maintain adequate CO2 concentrations around Rubisco. The function and efficiency of the CCM have been studied extensively (see reviews by Kaplan & Reinhold, 1999; Badger et al., 2002; Badger & Price, 2003) focusing prominently on the potential of some species to concentrate Ci intracellularly up to 1000-fold more than ambient concentrations. Recent genomic analysis showed a great diversity in the com- ponents and function of cyanobacterial CCMs with different mechanisms and adaptations found also among diazotrophs (Badger & Price, 2003; Badger et al., 2006). The extensive emphasis on how CCMs influence Ci- uptake under changing CO2 scenarios has tended to neglect the full suite of other processes required for metabolism and growth that could be affected. In particular, species in which photosynthesis was already saturated by Ci could benefit from enhanced CO2 availability by shifting resources and energy require- ments for the maintenance of the CCM (Raven, 1991). In diazotrophs, resource reallocation may enable en- hanced N fixation which is costly in terms of energy, reductant, and the high antioxidant activities required to protect nitrogenase from oxygen (Postgate, 1998). In this study we examined the response of the cya- nobacterial diazotroph Trichodesmium to changes in CO2 concentrations, focusing specifically on its response to elevated CO2. Trichodesmium is a nonheterocystous, bloom-forming cyanobacterium dominant in the sub- tropical and tropical oceans and contributing over 50% of marine N fixation (Bergman et al., 1997; Capone et al., 1997; Gallon, 2001; LaRoche & Breitbarth, 2005). Im-pacts of CO2 on Trichodesmium could therefore signifi- cantly influence N and C cycling in these areas. To test this we have acclimated cultures of Trichodesmium IMS101 to three pCO2 concentrations [preindustrial (low) 5 250 ppmv; (ambient) 5 400 ppmv, and fore- casted (high) 5 900 ppmv], and have examined the effects of pCO2 on N fixation and photosynthetic rates, morphological characteristics, and growth. Plants Scenario

Ocean acidification is beneficial – nitrogen fixation, trichomes, growth rates, biomass Levitan et. al 7 – O. Levitan (PhD Aquatic Ecology), G. Rosenberg, and Berman Frank (Associate Professor) are faculty at Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences at Bar Ilan University in Israel and I. Setlik, E. Setlikova, J. Grigel, J Klepetar, and O. Parsil work at the Institute of microbiology MBU AVCR and Trebon and Institute of Physical biology at the University of South Bohemia in the Czech Republic (“Elevated CO2 enhances nitrogen fixation and growth in the marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium”, Global Change Biology, P. 536 – 537)//JFHH Our present results demonstrate that Trichodesmium acclimated to high pCO2 displayed enhanced N fixation , longer trichomes , higher growth rates and biomass yields , and increased C : N. Concurrently, variable fluor- escence, gross photosynthetic rates, and oxygen con- sumption did not change significantly between CO2 treatments, while the relative abundance of the PSI, as measured by PSI : PSII ratios, declined under high CO2. This suggests that high CO2 reduces the dependence of Trichodesmium on active Ci-uptake and CCM operation which allows for greater allocation of energy, reducing power, and substrates for N fixation and subsequent growth. In the real oceans, a complex array of parameters affects N fixation and growth of Trichodesmium. Current estimates suggest that Trichodesmium may be two- to threefold more abundant than previously reported and may account for the missing sink of � 90 Tg N required to support the observed oceanic new production (Davis & McGillicuddy, 2006; Kolber, 2006). Natural Trichodes- mium populations mostly inhabit oceanic areas where light is not limiting, although in certain regions P and Fe availability appear to control Trichodesmium populations (Sanudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2001; Mills et al., 2004; Moutin et al., 2005; White et al., 2006). Nutrient and light status will obviously modify the response of organisms to CO2. Under replete nutrient and light conditions, we obtained a three- to fourfold increase in N fixation and a doubling of growth rates and biomass of Trichodesmium. Thus, in areas where Fe and P are sufficient, we hypothesize that a corresponding increase in N fixation and growth may occur for Trichodesmium populations under the high CO2 oceans expected within the next century. In areas of intense bloom-formation and high photosynthetic assimilation, as typical for Trichodes- mium, growth rate increases of 10–40% have been pre- dicted under the elevated CO2 of � 750 ppm for marine species with low affinity for bicarbonate (Schip- pers et al., 2004). This is consistent with the sequence homologiesOOOOOOOOOOO found for a low affinity HCO�3 transporter in Trichodesmium (Badger et al., 2006), although further experimental work is required to verify Trichodesmium’s Ci utilization. The recently described unicellular diazo- trophs boost current estimates of global N fixation (Zehr et al., 2000, 2001; Falcon et al., 2004; Montoya et al., 2004) and may also respond positively to elevatedOOOOOOOOOOO CO2. Yet, the 10% enhancement in DIC (CO2 and HCO�3 ) at 750 ppm pCO2 is expected to yield only a modest �2% increase in productivity for these non- blooming species as seawater will remain saturated with CO2 (Schippers et al., 2004). Thus, Trichodesmium’s dramatic response to elevated CO2 may consolidate its dominance in subtropical and tropical regions and its’ role in C and N cycling, fueling subsequent primary production, phytoplankton blooms , and sustaining oceanic food-webs .

CO2 would benefit plant life – Trichodesmium proves Levitan et. al 7 – O. Levitan (PhD Aquatic Ecology), G. Rosenberg and Berman Frank (Associate Professor) are faculty at Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences at Bar Ilan University in Israel and I. Setlik, E. Setlikova, J. Grigel, J Klepetar, and O. Parsil work at the Institute of microbiology MBU AVCR and Trebon and Institute of Physical biology at the University of South Bohemia in the Czech Republic (“Elevated CO2 enhances nitrogen fixation and growth in the marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium”, Global Change Biology, P. 533- 534)//JFHH The ultimate acclimation of an organism to changes in environmental conditions is its ability to grow and reproduce under the altered state(s). Limiting resources may control phytoplankton by influencing either the standing crop (biomass) sensu ‘Liebieg’s Law of the Minimum’ or rate processes such as growth as intro- duced by Blackman (1905). Cullen et al. (1992) demon- strated, in N enrichment studies, that while standing crops increased when N was added, growth rates were not affected. Alternatively, CO2 supply may directly limit growth rates but not the total biomass attained as observed for several oceanic diatoms under replete nitrate and phosphate (Riebesell et al., 1993). Our study demonstrates that enhanced CO2 influ- enced both growth rates and total biomass in Trichodes- mium (Fig. 1). Trichodesmium cultures grown under high pCO2 ( 900ppm ) exhibited higher growth rates ( 1.5–3- fold ), a longer exponential phase , and subsequently higher biomass compared with the cultures grown under ambient (400 ppm) and low pCO2 (250 ppm) (Fig. 1a and b). Availability of CO2 also influenced the culture’s behavior during the stationary and decline phases with cultures under low CO2 reaching a sta- tionary phase after only 5 days, while both ambient and high CO2 cultures exhibited exponential growth until day 15 before declining (Fig. 1a). The enhanced growth rates were accompanied by differences in morphology and in elemental stoichio- metry. Higher CO2 resulted in longer trichomes rather than just increased number of cells or trichomes (Fig. 1c). In Trichodesmium longer trichomes may allow an increase in the extent of spatial segregation along the trichomes as photosynthesis is downregulated in N- fixing cells during hours of N fixation (Berman-Frank et al., 2001). In contrast, the short filaments, which were abundant in the low pCO2 cultures, might result from a mechanical break-down of the filaments. This could occur, due to lack of nutritional (C-based) building blocks required to maintain the filaments intact, or due to the loss of external mucus protection such as transparent exopolymer polysaccharides (TEP) typical to filamentous cyanobacteria (Meyers, 2000; Salomon et al., 2003). When Ci and light are not limiting, uncou- pling between photosynthesis and growth due to nu- trient limitation can result in shunting of carbohydrates from the cell to form external mucus (Berman-Frank & Dubinsky, 1999). In contrast, low pCO2 and low Ci availability could limit TEP formation and sensitize the trichomes to physical breakage. Productivity Scenario

Acidification benefits ocean productivity IGBP et al 13 - The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) was launched in 1987 to coordinate international research on global-scale and regional-scale interactions between Earth’s biological, chemical and physical processes and their interactions with human systems. IGBP’s international core projects Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER), Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS), Past Global Changes (PAGES) and Land–Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) study ocean acidification. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC-UNESCO) was established by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in 1960 to provide Member States of the United Nations with an essential mechanism for global cooperation in the study of the ocean. The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) was established by the International Council for Science (“Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World,” http://www.igbp.net/download/18.30566fc6142425d6c91140a/1385975160621/OA_spm2-FULL- lorez.pdf)//JGold Some seagrass and phytoplankton species may benefit from ocean acidification [HIGH CONFIDENCE] Elevated levels of CO2 appear to stimulate photosynthesis and growth in some groups of organisms. These include some seagrasses, fleshy algae and some phytoplankton groups (e.g., cyanobacteria and picoeukaryotes)50. Observations in ocean areas with naturally high CO2 venting (e.g., the island of Ischia, Italy) show that marine plants prosper in the acidified waters.

Acidification benefits plant productivity and animal shells – contrary data is based on bad experiments Chang 8 – science reporter for the New York Times (Kenneth, “Study Sees an Advantage for Algae Species in Changing Oceans,” NYT, 4/18/08, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/18/science/earth/18acid.html? scp=7&sq=carbon&st=nyt)//JGold Contrary to expectations, a microscopic plant that lives in oceans around the world may thrive in the changing ocean conditions of the coming decades, a team of scientists reported Thursday. The main threat to many marine organisms is not global warming but ocean acidification, as carbon dioxide from the air dissolves into the water and turns into carbonic acid. Acid dissolves calcium carbonate in the skeletons of corals, for example; many scientists fear that acidification of the oceans will kill many, if not most, coral reefs by the end of the century. Similar concerns have been raised about coccolithophores, single-cell, carbonate- encased algae that are a major link in the ocean food chain. Earlier experiments with a species of coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, had found that lower pH levels (more acidic) hindered the algae’s ability to build the disks of carbonate that form its shell. In Friday’s issue of the journal Science, however, scientists led by M. Debora Iglesias-Rodríguez of the National Oceanography Center at the University of Southampton in England and Paul Halloran, a graduate student at the University of Oxford, report that they found the exact opposite. The algae grew bigger in the more acidic water. Dr. Iglesias-Rodríguez said the conflicting findings probably arose from differences between how the experiments were conducted. In the earlier work, the researchers lowered the pH by directly adding acid to the water. In the work reported in Science, the scientists added the acid indirectly by bubbling carbon dioxide into the water, which more closely mimicked the chemical reactions that are occurring in the oceans. As a consequence, in addition to the lowered pH, levels of carbon dioxide in the water also rose — speeding up the algae’s photosynthesis machinery — as did the levels of bicarbonate ions, the building material for the carbonate disks. “It’s a really complex problem,” Dr. Iglesias-Rodríguez said. “You cannot look at calcification in isolation. You have to look at photosynthesis as well.” The pH scale, which measures the concentration of hydrogen ions, runs from zero, the most acidic, with the highest concentration of ions, to 14, the most alkaline, with almost no ions. Ocean water today is somewhat alkaline, at 8.1, down from 8.2 at the start of the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago. Pteropods Scenario

Acidification is net positive for organisms with exoskeletons – turns pteropods Science News 9 – (“Acidic Oceans May Be a Boon for Some Marine Dwellers,” 12/1/09, http://news.sciencemag.org/2009/12/acidic-oceans-may-be-boon-some-marine-dwellers)//JGold Researchers fret that many species of invertebrates will disappear as the oceans acidify due to increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). But a new study concludes that some of these species may benefit from ocean acidification, growing bigger shells or skeletons that provide more protection. The work suggests that the effects of increased CO2 on marine environments will be more complex than previously thought.¶ Bottom-dwelling marine critters such as lobsters and corals encase themselves in shells or exoskeletons made from calcium carbonate. Previous studies predict that rising ocean acidity will result in the loss or weakening of these exoskeletons or shells and increase their owner's vulnerability to disease, predators, and environmental stress. But marine scientist Justin Ries of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, hypothesized that not all ocean organisms would respond the same way to acidity because they use different forms of calcium carbonate for their shells.¶ Ries and two colleagues from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts exposed 18 species of marine organisms to seawater with four levels of acidity. The first environment matched today's atmospheric CO2 levels, and two others were set at double and triple the pre-Industrial CO2 levels, mimicking conditions predicted to occur over the next century. The fourth CO2 level was 10 times pre-Industrial levels. Although CO2 levels won't rise that high in our lifetime, Ries says they could within 500 to 700 years. The atmosphere did contain that much CO2 during the Cretaceous period about 100 million years ago, Ries says. "This is an interval in which many of these organisms lived and apparently did okay, despite the extremely elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 that existed at that time."¶ Blue crabs, lobsters, and shrimp prospered in the highest CO2 level, growing heavier shells, the researchers report today in Geology. Ries says a bulkier shell might be more resistant to crushing by predators. American oysters, scallops, temperate corals, and tube worms all fared poorly and grew thinner, weaker shells. The biggest losers included clams and pencil urchins; their exoskeletons dissolved at the highest CO2 levels.¶ Susceptibility to acid depends in part on the type of calcium carbonate the animal makes, the researchers found. But a shell's mineralogy alone was not the only factor. If critters were able to control pH at their calcification sites by buffering the acid in the surrounding water, as the calcareous green algae did, they also fared better. But Ries points out that this coping mechanism takes energy--how much isn't known--which could have side effects such as diverting energy from maintaining an immune response. "The take-home message is that the responses to ocean acidification are going to be a lot more nuanced and complex than we thought," Ries says.¶ "The thought has been that as ocean's acidify, the cost of calcification will continually go up," and organisms will be less likely to do it, says Robert Steneck, a marine biologist at the University of Maine, Orono. "Their findings are surprising, to say the least." Sea Star Scenario

Ocean acidification is key to sea stars Carter et al., 11— Robert Carter has a Ph.D. and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at James Cook University, Craig Idso has a Ph.D., Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Fred Singer has a Ph.D., President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (Robert Carter, Craig Idso, Fred Singer, and contributing authors are Susan Crockford, Joseph D’Aleo, Indur Goklany, Sherwood Idso, Madhav Khandekar, Anthony Lupo, Willie Soon, and Mitch Taylor, “Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report of the Nongovernmental international Panel on Climate Change, The Heartland Institute, http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/2011/pdf/2011NIPCCinterimreport.pdf)//vivienne Working with naturally fertilized eggs of the common sea star Crossaster papposus, which they collected and transferred to five-liter culture aquariums filled with filtered seawater (a third of which was replaced every four days),Dupont et al. tested this hypothesis by regulating the pH of the tanks to values of either 8.1 or 7.7 by adjusting environmental CO2 levels to either 372 ppm or 930 ppm. During the testing period they documented (1) settlement success as the percentage of initially free-swimming larvae that affixed themselves to the aquarium walls, (2) larval length at various time intervals, and (3) degree of calcification. The three researchers report just the opposite of what is often predicted actually happened, as the echinoderm larvae and juveniles were―positively impacted by ocean acidification. More specifically, they found ―larvae and juveniles raised at low pH grow and develop faster, with no negative effect on survival or skeletogenesis within the time frame of the experiment (38 days). In fact, they state the sea stars ‘ growth rates were ―two times higher‖ in the acidified seawater; and they remark, ―C. papposus seem to be not only more than simply resistant to ocean. Given these findings, the Swedish scientists concluded, ―in the future ocean, the direct impact of ocean acidification on growth and development potentially will produce an increase in C. papposus reproductive success‖ and ―a decrease in developmental time will be associated with a shorter pelagic period with a higher proportion of eggs reaching settlement,‖ causing the sea stars to become ―better competitors in an unpredictable environment.‖ Not bad for a creature that makes its skeletal rods, plates, test, teeth, and spines from a substance that is 30 times more soluble than normal calcite. Lastly, Rodolfo-Metalpa et al. (2010) worked with bryozoans or ―moss animals‖ —a geologically important group of small animals that resemble corals and are major calcifiers, found on rocky shores in cool-water areas of the planet, where they comprise a significant component of the carbonate sediments in shallow sublittoral habitats, and where they form long-lived, three-dimensional structures that provide attachment sites for numerous epifauna and trap sediment and food for a variety of infauna—in what they describe as ―the first coastal transplant experiment designed to investigate the effects of naturally acidified seawater on the rates of net calcification and dissolution of the branched calcitic bryozoan Myriapora truncata.‖ They did this by transplanting colonies of the species to normal (pH 8.1), high (pH 7.66), and extremely high (pH 7.43) CO2 conditions at gas vents located just off Italy‘s Ischia Island in the Tyrrhenian Sea, where they calculated the net calcification rates of live colonies and the dissolution rates of dead colonies by weighing them before and after 45 days of in situ residence in May–June (when seawater temperatures ranged from 19 to 24°C) and after 128 days of in situ residence in July–October (when seawater temperatures ranged from 25–28°C).

That turns overall marine biodiversity Ostfeld et al., 08 – Richard S. Ostfeld is a Disease Ecologist, Ph.D (Richard S., Felicia Keesing, and Valerie Eviner, “Infectious Disease Ecology: Effects of Ecosystems on Disease and of Disease on Ecosystems,” Princeton University Press, Decemeber 16, page 131, Google Books)//vivienne Paine (1966, 1969) originally conceived of the keystone species concept based on his observations and experiments in intertidal invertebrate communities. Using now classic field experiments, Paine showed that removal of the predatory sea star, Pisaster ocbraceus, caused major alterations in the composition of invertebrate communities . One year after initiation of Paine's sea star-removal experiment, study plots in which sea stars were present harbored fifteen species of invertebrates, compared with only eight species in sea star-removal plots. Where sea stars were absent , the mussel Mytilus californianus dominated. Where sea stars were pr sent, predation reduced the abundance of the competitively dominant mussel, allowing for greater species diversity . Noting the dramatic effect of the predatory sea star on community composition, Paine termed it a keystone species because it preferentially consumed prey that would otherwise dominate the community, thereby enhancing species diversity. Paine's architectural analogy to the keystone of an arch is appropriate, because the keystone is essential for the structural and functional integrity of the ecological community.

Ocean acidification increases sea star growth – they’re a keystone species Dupont et al., 10 – Sam Dupont and Bengt Lundve are affiliated with the Department of Marine Ecolog at the University of Gothenburg’s Sven Love´n Centre for Marine Sciences; Mike Thorndyke is affiliated with the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences at the Sven Love´n Centre for Marine Sciences–Kristineberg at the University of Gothenburg (Sam Dupont, Bengt Lundve, and Mike Thorndyke, “Near Future Ocean Acidification Increases Growth Rate of the Lecithotrophic Larvae and Juveniles of the Sea Star: Crossaster papposus,” Journal of Experimental Zoology Part B: Molecular and Developmental Evolution, Volume 314B, Issue 5, March 22, Wiley Online Library, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jez.b.21342/abstract)//vivienne C. papposus is a long lived, slow growing species (at least 20 years) living in stable populations. As a result of the lack of predators, adults have a high survivorship (Carlston and Pfister, ’99). This species is found in all northern seas, from subtidal to oceanic depths (D’yakanov, ’68) and mainly on rocky bottoms (McConnaughey and McConnaughey, ’85). It has 8–16 arms and can reach 34 cm in diameter (Lambert, ’81). It is also a highly mobile and dominant predator, feeding mainly on other echinoderms and molluscs (Mauzey et al., ’68; Mortensen, ’77; Coleman, ’91; Himmelman and Dutil, ’91). This species is considered to be the dominant predator in its food web and can, therefore, influence the distribution of many other species, determining community structure (Sloan, ’79; Himmelman and Dutil, ’91). As a result, any change in species fitness could have profound impacts on its ecosystem (Grush, ’99). Our data suggest that in the future ocean, the direct impact of OA on growth and development potentially will produce an increase in C. papposus reproductive success. A decrease in developmental time will be associated with a shorter pelagic period and a higher proportion of eggs reaching settlement. It is frequently assumed that selection to shorter larval duration drives evolution of reproductive strategies (Reitzel et al., 2004). The cost of planktonic life can be severe because of mortality risks, such as predation, starvation, offshore transport, and exposure to intolerable environmental conditions. For example, field reports for sea urchin larvae show mortality of more than 15% d1 (Lamare and Barker, ’99). Shellfish Scenario

Acidification is beneficial for shellfish – harder shells Wishart 12 – a writer (Ian, “Ocean acidification climate change fears overblown, studies show”, Investigate Daily, March 31, http://www.investigatemagazine.co.nz/Investigate/2641/ocean- acidification-climate-change-fears-overblown-studies-show/)//JFHH In a striking finding that raises new questions about carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on marine life, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) scientists report that some shell-building creatures – such as crabs , shrimp and lobsters – unexpectedly build more shell when exposed to ocean acidification caused by elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Because excess CO2 dissolves in the ocean – causing it to “acidify” – researchers have been concerned about the ability of certain organisms to maintain the strength of their shells. Carbon dioxide is known to trigger a process that reduces the abundance of carbonate ions in seawater – one of the primary materials that marine organisms use to build their calcium carbonate shells and skeletons. The concern is that this process will trigger a weakening and decline in the shells of some species and, in the long term, upset the balance of the ocean ecosystem. But in a study published in the Dec. 1 issue of Geology, a team led by former WHOI postdoctoral researcher Justin B. Ries found that seven of the 18 shelled species they observed actually built more shell when exposed to varying levels of increased acidification . This may be because the total amount of dissolved inorganic carbon available to them is actually increased when the ocean becomes more acidic , even though the concentration of carbonate ions is decreased. “Most likely the organisms that responded positively were somehow able to manipulate…dissolved inorganic carbon in the fluid from which they precipitated their skeleton in a way that was beneficial to them,” said Ries, now an assistant professor in marine sciences at the University of North Carolina. “They were somehow able to manipulate CO2…to build their skeletons.” In truth, it’s a simple reminder of something the climate changers either forget or deliberately ignore when crafting their dumbed-down scary soundbites: when one species can no longer take the heat in the kitchen, another one rises up from the shadows swiftly to take its place that’s more resilient and even thrives in the new conditions. The moral of the story? Life appears far more adaptable than you hear about on the TV news. The next time you hear a Greenpeace lobbyist, or a TV reporter for that matter, sensationally warning of the dangers of ocean acidification, you can be forgiven if you choose to roll all over the floor in fits of laughter. Warming Scenario

Increased ocean CO2 solves photosynthesis and marine life – and the negative feedback solves warming Idso and Ferguson ‘9 (Craig, Chairman at the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Robert, President of Science and Public Policy Institute, “Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems,” 2009, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/acidification.pdf) //ER Results indicated there was “a strong increase in photosynthesis and N2 fixation under elevated CO2 levels,” such that POC and PON production rates rose “by almost 40%.” In discussing the generality of their results, the German scientists noted that — working with the same Trichodesmium species — “Ramos et al. (2007) and Levitan et al. (2007) observed stimulation in N2 fixation by approximately 40% and even up to 400%, while Hutchins et al. (2007) obtained stimulation by up to 35% over the respective CO2 range.” And in discussing the significance of these similar findings, they state that “the observed increase in photosynthesis and N2 fixation could have potential [global] biogeochemical implications, as it may stimulate productivity in N- limited oligotrophic regions and thus provide a negative feedback on rising atmospheric CO2 levels,” slowing the rate of CO2 rise and reducing the degree of C02-induced global warming. In a similar vein, employing semi-continuous culturing methods that used filtered, microwave- sterilized surface Sargasso seawater that was enriched with phosphate and trace nutrients, Fu et al. (2008) “examined the physiological responses of steady-state iron (Fe)-replete and Fe- limited cultures of the biogeochemically critical marine unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacterium Crocosphaera Iwatsonhil at glacial (190 ppm), current (380 ppm), and projected year 2100 (750 ppm) CO2 levels.” Results of their experiment indicated that when the seawater was replete with iron, daily primary production at 750 ppm CO2 was 21% greater than it was at 380 ppm, while at 190 ppm CO2 it was 38% lower than it was at 380 ppm. When the seawater was iron-limited, however, daily primary production at 750 ppm CO2 was 150% greater than it was at 380 ppm, while at 190 ppm CO2 it was 22% lower than it was at 380 ppm. With respect to N2 fixation, rates varied little among the three CO2 treatments when the seawater was iron-limited; but when the seawater was replete with iron, N2 fixation at 750 ppm CO2 was 60% greater than it was at 380 ppm, while at 190 ppm CO2 it was 33% lower than it was at 380 ppm. In discussing their findings, Fu et ai. note that “several studies examining the marine diazotrophic cyanobacterium Trîchodesmium have shown significant increases in N2 fixation and photosynthesis in response to elevated CO2 concentration (Hutchins et al., 2007; Levitan et aL, 2007; Ramos et aL, 2007),” and they say their data “extend these findings to encompass the marine unicellular N2-fixing cyanobacterium Crocosphaera,” which group, they add, “is now recognized as being perhaps equally as important as Trichodesmium to the ocean nitrogen cycle (Montoya et ai., 2004).” Consequently, they conclude that “anthropogenic CO2 enrichment could substantially increase global oceanic N2 and CO2 fixation,” which two-pronged phenomenon would be a tremendous boon to the marine biosphere. In another study, Bernhard et aI. (2009) grew the marine foraminiferal protist Allogromia laticollaris -- which they describe as “a ubiquitous protistan constituent of marine microbial systems” and “an important link in the ” -- in a mixture of 32% seawater and Alga-Gro seawater medium in 20-ml glass culture tubes, while examining its response to a number of super-high atmospheric CO2 concentrations to which the tubes were exposed: 15,000, 30,000, 60,000, 90,000 and 200,000 ppm, which values were compared to the study’s atmospheric control concentration of 375 ppm CO2. Results indicated that the protist “is able to survive 10-14-day exposure to elevated CO2 as high as 200,000 ppm.” In fact, they say that “both ATP (Adenosine Triphosphate, an indicator of cellular energy] data and microscopic examination indicate that considerable populations of A. laticolloris survived exposure to all experimental treatments of elevated CO2, even both replicates of the 200,000- ppm CO2 experiments.” And they found that “at least three specimens reproduced during exposure to either 90,000 ppm or 200,000 ppm COZ,” while “such reproduction was observed only once in an atmospheric [375-ppm CO2] treatment.” With respect to the significance of their findings, the four researchers first note that A. laticolloris is an appropriate species to predict the response of shallow-water thecate Foraminifera to predicted increases in atmospheric CO2, given its isolation [i.e., acquisition] from a shallow- water semi-tropical setting.” Hence, they go on to say their results indicate that “at least some foraminiferal species will tolerate CO2 values that are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those predicted for the next few centuries.” And, last of all, they say that A. iaticollaris will also tolerate CO2 values that are one to two orders of magnitude greater than those predicted to occur for the “extreme case” of burning all fossil fuels in the crust of the earth. In a review of what is known about the effects of a C02-enriched atmosphere on micro- and macro-algae living in the world’s oceans, Wu et aI. (2008) write that “enriched CO2 up to several times the present atmospheric level has been shown to enhance photosynthesis and growth of both phytoplanktonic and macro-species that have less capacity of CCMs [C02-concentrating mechanisms],” adding that “even for species that operate active CCM5 and those whose photosynthesis is not limited by co2 in seawater, increased CO2 levels can down-regulate their CCM5 and therefore enhance their growth under light-limiting conditions,” because “at higher CO2 levels, less light energy is required to drive CCM.” In addition, they report that enhanced CO2 levels have been found to enhance the activity of nitrogen reductase in several marine plants, and that this phenomenon “would support enhanced growth rate by providing adequate nitrogen required for the metabolism under the high CO2 level.” Last of all, they say that “altered physiological performances under high-CO2 conditions may cause genetic alteration in view of adaptation over long time scales,” and that “marine algae may adapt to a high CO2 oceanic environment so that evolved communities in [the] future are likely to be genetically different from contemporary communities.” The findings described by the three researchers represent good news for the biosphere, since “marine phytoplankton contribute to about half of the global primary productivity,” and this phenomenon, in their words, “promotes the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere.” Consequently, both the micro- and macro-algae of the world’s oceans should be able to do an even more robust job of performing these vital functions in a CO2-enriched world of the future. Ocean Acidification Bad Generic Acidification kills biodiversity and decreases food supplies – also impacting humans Bergeron ’11 (Louis, Stanford Report, Stanford News, “Rare undersea volcanic vents show oceans' increasing acidity likely to hurt biodiversity, endanger ecosystem stability, say Stanford researchers,” 9-12-11, http://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/september/acidsea-hurt-biodiversity- 091211.html)//ER Stanford researchers have gotten a glimpse into an uncertain future where increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere will lead to higher levels in the ocean as well, leaving the water more acidic and altering underwater ecosystems. The glimpse comes from waters near Ischia, Italy, where unusual shallow-water volcanic vents in the floor of the Mediterranean Sea bubble carbon dioxide into the water, creating a local underwater neighborhood that may resemble the ocean of the future. If the results are a prediction of the future, "you are left with a dramatically different ecosystem that is likely going to be less able to deal with stress and is going to have less biomass available to feed organisms higher up the food chain," said Kristy Kroeker, a graduate student in biology at Stanford's Hopkins Marine Station. The special significance of this research site is that, unlike most hydrothermal vents, it spouts just carbon dioxide, without hot, sulfurous brews that are lethal to all but the most highly adapted extremophile organisms. The carbon dioxide comes out of the vents at the same temperature as the surrounding water. The carbon dioxide vents cause a local gradient in the seawater chemistry, with the greatest acidity closest to the vents. While the researchers found that various species reacted differently to the more acidified waters – some suffered, some prospered – their overall findings do not bode well for the biological community as a whole. "The types of organisms that were winners in this acidified environment are functionally very different from those that were lost," Kroeker said. Kroeker is the lead author of a paper describing the research published recently in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Fiorenza Micheli, professor of biology at Hopkins Marine Station, is Kroeker's thesis adviser and a co-author of the paper. Kroeker and her colleagues looked at invertebrate seafloor communities spread along a range of acidity, from the most acidic water right around the vents out to distances of 200 meters, where the acidity of the water was that of the ambient Mediterranean Sea. The biggest losers were organisms with shells made of calcium carbonate, which dissolves in acidic water. Snails, clams, mussels and scallops were all absent from the extremely acidic zone. Small crabs, sea urchins, shrimps and species of worms that live in tubes of calcium carbonate attached to the rocks were also missing. Some of the worms were also absent from the intermediate zone, where the acidity was moderately greater than the ambient water. "If you were to go snorkel along this gradient, you would see some variability within each zone, but the changes in the makeup of the ecological community are very clear when you move from one area to another," Kroeker said. Moving into the most acidic zone, "The change is obvious within a single meter," she said. The winners tended to be very small-bodied organisms, in particular some shrimp-like crustaceans and small worms. But ecology is not a zero-sum game and in terms of the overall ecosystem, winners and losers don't even out. Even with an increased abundance of the smaller organisms, the total biomass of the community is decreased because of the loss of the larger-bodied creatures, according to Kroeker. That could reduce the amount of food available for organisms higher in the food web. There is also less diversity in the biological community. The organisms that prospered tended to be generalists, while the number of specialist species dwindled in the extreme high acidity zone. "It is a simplified community and you have fewer species, so each species plays a disproportionately more important role," Kroeker said. "If something happens to one of those species, you are more likely to have larger effects in the ecosystem as a result, likely making it less stable." An ecosystem may be able to withstand the loss of different species up to a point, but eventually, like a table that's had too many of its legs knocked off, it will collapse. The biggest drop in species diversity was observed in moving from the zone of intermediate acidity to the extremely acidic zone, suggesting that many species may be able to tolerate a modest increase in acidity before having to exit or expire. Most computer models for the effects of global warming are designed to predict trends on a global scale and generally are based on conditions on the open ocean, which is an extremely stable environment showing little acidity (pH) variation on a daily cycle. "The ocean as a whole might have one pH, but on the scale at which an organism experiences the acidification, things could look very, very different," Kroeker said. In areas where plant and animal life are abundant, pH would be influenced by algae absorbing carbon dioxide from the water during photosynthesis and animals releasing it during respiration, potentially making habitat-level acidity more variable. Areas of upwelling – where highly acidic water from the deep ocean is brought to the surface – can experience rapid changes in pH values. Along the coast of the western United States, for example, upwelling can cause the pH range over the course of a single day to fluctuate almost twice as much as the predicted increase in acidity for the ocean between now and 2100. "Near-shore ecosystems that are affected by upwelling and by biological processes are quite likely to see acidification values that are more extreme than what we actually predict for the global oceans," Kroeker said. That could bode ill not just for the marine organisms living in near-shore waters, but also for the humans who have gotten used to feeding on that rich biota. Funding for the research was provided by the National Science Foundation, the Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, the Myers Oceanographic Trust and Stanford University. Overwhelmingly bad consequences – must stop now Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity ‘9 (“Scientific Synthesis of the Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biodiversity,” 2006, Montreal, Technical Series No. 46, http://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-46-en.pdf) //ER Theory and an emerging body of research suggest that many of the effects of ocean acidification may be non- linear, and both positive and negative feedback mechanisms on marine ecosystems seem to exist, impeding the ability to make reliable predictions of the consequences of changing CO2 levels3. The ocean is one of the largest natural reservoirs of carbon, absorbing --26—29% of anthropogenic carbon emissions each year. However, the oceans’ capacity to absorb atmospheric CO2 is being degraded by ocean acidification, which will make it more difficult to stabilize atmospheric C02 concentrations. Even with stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm, ocean acidification will have profound impacts on many marine ecosystems. The interactive effects of saturation state, temperature, light and nutrients are all important factors in calcification rates of organisms. Human activities are causing changes in all of these factors397. A host of pervasive stressors are impacting the oceans, such as rising ocean temperatures, over-fishing and land-based sources of pollution, which operate in synergy with increasing acidification to compro mise the health and continued function of many marine organisms. If pushed far enough, ecosystems may exceed a tipping point» and change rapidly into an alternative state with reduced biodiversity, value and function3. The cumulative impacts or interactive effects of multiple stressors will have more sig nificant consequences for biota that any single stressor3. When considered in the light of global climate change and increasing thermal anomalies, coral reef acidification and bleaching enhance deleterious ecosystem feedbacks, driving the coral ecosystems toward domination by macroalgae and non- coral communities. Ocean acidification is irreversible on short-term timeframes, and substantial damage to ocean ecosys tems can only be avoided through urgent and rapid reductions in global emissions of CO2 by at least 50% by 2050, and much more thereafter40t. Ocean acidification is an already observable and predictable consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with biological impacts, and will need to be recognized and integrated into the global climate change debate.

Ocean acidification destroys marine diversity and resilience US News 11 - the article is sponsored by the National Science Institute “Ocean Acidification May Reduce Reef Diversity”, US News, June 1, http://www.usnews.com/science/articles/2011/06/01/ocean-acidification-may-reduce-reef- diversity)//JFHH MIAMI—A new study from University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science scientists Chris Langdon, Remy Okazaki and Nancy Muehllehner and colleagues from the Australian Institute of Marine Science and the Max-Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Germany concludes that ocean acidification, along with increased ocean temperatures, will likely severely reduce the diversity and resilience of coral reef ecosystems within this century . The research team studied three natural volcanic CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea to better understand how ocean acidification will impact coral reefs ecosystem diversity. The study details the effects of long-term exposure to high levels of carbon dioxide and low pH on Indo-Pacific coral reefs, a condition that is projected to occur by the end of the century as increased man- made CO2 emissions alter the current pH level of seawater, turning the oceans acidic. "These 'champagne reefs' are natural analogs of how coral reefs may look in 100 years if ocean acidification conditions continue to get worse," said Langdon, UM Rosenstiel School professor and co-principal investigator of the study. The study shows shifts in the composition of coral species and reductions in biodiversity and recruitment on the reef as pH declined from 8.1 to 7.8. The team also reports that reef development would cease at a pH below 7.7 . The IPCC 4th Assessment Report estimates that by the end of the century, ocean pH will decline from the current level of 8.1 to 7.8, due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. "The seeps are probably the closest we can come to simulating the effect of man-made CO2 emissions on a coral reef," said Langdon. "They allow us to see the end result of the complex interactions between species under acidic ocean conditions." The reefs detailed in this study have healthy reefs nearby to supply larvae to replenish the reefs. If pH was low throughout the region—as projected for year 2100—then there would not be any healthy reefs to reseed damaged ones, according to Langdon.

Ocean acidification leads to extinction Dunpont and Portner 13 (Sam and Hans, “Get ready for ocean acidification”, Nature, June 27, http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1399980647/D435F2533CFF461FPQ/4? accountid=14667)//JFHH Sam Dupont and Hans Pörtner call for experiments of greater complexity that can probe how plummeting pH will affect marine ecosystems as the climate warms. Oceans are becoming more acidic as they draw rising levels of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Since 1850, the acidity of the surface ocean has increased by almost 30% , and could double or triple further by 2100 as the growing human population leads to higher CO2 emissions. Ocean acidification will cause marine ecosystems to undergo major changes that scientists are only beginning to understand. Past work has tended to focus on the immediate responses of single marine species to acidification, but researchers now know that some species are more resilient to rising acidity than others. The challenge is to understand how whole ecosystems react to a range of climate-related stressors, including temperature. We believe that the ocean-acidification field must move away from testing only individual species in simple experimental conditions and instead perform more complex and extended experiments (see page 420). These would involve all life stages of target species and their food webs, would embrace environmental complexity and last for months to years. The aim should be to derive a set of unifying principles to help identify which sensitive species and ecosystems to protect in the face of rising ocean acidity. SURPRISING RESILIENCE? We have known for decades that ocean acidification threatens calcifying organisms such as corals, clams, mussels and brittlestars - some to the point of possible extinction within decades. It came as a surprise in the past few years that some calcifier species are resilient to acidification, such as the mussels that thrive in Kiel fjord in Germany despite a seasonal flow of CO2-rich waters1. Other organisms can be both vulnerable and resilient at different times in their life cycles, such as some phytoplankton , fish and sea urchins. Initially, female green sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) that are exposed to acidification produce around one-fifth the number of eggs produced by urchins in current ocean pH conditions. But after 16 months, adults acclimatize and reproduce as normal. Juvenile urchins, however, remain sensitive to acidification and show up to a nine-fold increase in mortality2. The impacts of acidification on sensitive species cascade across ecosystems . Copepods, a major food source for fish, are resilient but would be affected if their phytoplankton food source declined. In mussels, more abundant food may counterbalance the increased energy costs of resisting the impacts of ocean acidification1. Increasing atmospheric CO2 will also cause average global temperatures to rise. Temperature is a key driver for biological change. Organisms specialize within certain temperature ranges and are sensitive to extremes. Ocean acidification modulates responses to temperature, and vice versa. Whereas mild warming on the cold side of a species' typical thermal range may be beneficial, exposure to higher temperatures enhances the sensitivity of some species, including Arctic spider crabs (Hyas araneus), to acidification3. The combined effects of local variability in acidity, temperature and human-made eutrophication or pollution may be more detrimental than for each factor alone. To understand what future oceans might look like, marine scientists need to assess how whole ecosystems respond to rising acidity over time frames that are long enough to track generations of organisms to see which ones die or adapt. Because acidification develops in tandem with human-driven environmental changes, experiments must become more sophisticated and realistic. No single experiment can capture the complexity , so a variety of approaches will be needed. Single-species investigations will remain valuable. Mesocosms - parts of ecosystems that are brought under controlled, experimental conditions - can unravel the role of some ecological interactions. Combined chemical and biological monitoring and modelling can reveal natural variability in ecosystem responses. Investigations of species within temperature and acidity gradients can help to assess which organisms will adapt. ECOSYSTEM EFFECTS Although researcher numbers, funding and methodologies will always be limiting, we think that the field is being held back by a much bigger problem - a lack of knowledge of the overarching principles for how ocean acidification affects species and ecosystems. These will be crucial for addressing issues including shifts in biogeochemical processes, such as nitrogen fixation, and the interactions between animals, plants and bacteria. Elaborating these unifying principles will require an interdisciplinary approach that structures research within and between multinational and national projects on ocean acidification. The Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre, announced in June 2012, is a welcome first step. Ocean acidification is already affecting marine ecosystems and their services to humankind. In light of the millennia it will take to reverse changes in ocean chemistry, we believe that research should be oriented towards finding solutions, rather than to simply documenting the disaster. Ultimately, only the reduction of atmospheric CO2 levels will alleviate the challenges of ocean acidification. Meanwhile, researchers can improve understanding of the biological impacts of ocean acidification and identify the organisms and ecosystems that are most at risk. We can also buy some time through reducing human pressures such as overfishing, eutrophication and pollution. Biodiversity Scenario

Acidification kills biodiversity Cappa ’10 (Margaret, 5-18-10, “Ocean acidification could cause loss of biodiversity in Barents Sea,” Barents Observer, http://barentsobserver.com/en/sections/business/ocean-acidification- could-cause-loss-biodiversity-barents-sea) //ER As a group of British scientists return from the North Pole with new data concerning the acidification of Arctic sea water, Nordic scientists at home are especially concerned about the direct effects on the Barents Sea. Researchers with the Catlin Arctic Survey ventured north to collect the first ever water samples from the pole in order to study the rate of ocean acidification caused by rising CO2 levels. Cold waters absorb greater amounts of CO2 than warm waters, which consequently lowers the pH level and increases acidification. The Barents Sea is particularly vulnerable because it holds some of the largest fish stocks in the world, and since its waters have low temperatures, it can absorb higher amounts of CO2. Moreover, unlike the North Pole, the Barents Sea doesn’t have ice caps to serve as a natural barrier from the airborne gas and help reduce the rate of acidification. - We have seen the most vigourous change in the Nordic Seas, said Richard Bellerby of the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change in an interview with the Barents Observer. In the last 150 years the pH level of Earth’s oceans has dropped 0.1 on the logarithmic pH scale. However, if the current rate of CO2 emissions continues, the Barents Sea will see a drop of 0.35 in the next 60 years, said Bellerby. The threats of ocean acidification on the Barents Sea as well as on the planet are great, say some scientists. - Lower pH levels make it difficult for species that produce calcium-carbonate shells, said Jan Helge Fosså from the Norwegian Institute for Marine Research. Shellfish, including clams and microorganisms like pteropods, will have trouble creating viable shells in increasingly acidic water and could experience slower growth rates, he said. According to Bellerby, pteropods and other planktonic calcifiers will experience adverse affects from ocean acidification. This is dangerous since they’re important links in the Arctic food chain, which include herring, cod and mackerel. - It’s biodiversity which is the question; the threat to biodiversity with loss of key species in the Barents Sea, said Bellerby. In 2008, a study was conducted by scientists from universities including Pierre and Marie Curie University and Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche which collected a sample of 50 pteropods from Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. They subjected the pteropods to projected levels of ocean acidification for 2100, which they say is a 28 per cent decrease in pH levels. The study found that after five days all pteropods were alive, but only 30 per cent were active swimmers. It was the first study to provide both qualitative and quantitative evidence that increased ocean acidification affects calcification rates in pteropods. It can be found in the science journal Biogeosciences. - Ocean acidification is becoming more talked about because in the last five to ten years we’ve realized the problem. It’s come sneaking up and now it’s realized, said Fosså. In addition to animal life, the cold water coral reefs along the Norwegian shelf and coast, including into the Barents Sea, could be affected by increasing acidification. The long term effect is the world’s oceans will increasingly lose their ability to absorb CO2, said Bellerby. Currently, the oceans absorb approximately 25 per cent of all CO2 emissions each year, reported the European Project on Ocean Acidification. - Over time, the ocean will stop the luxury it has afforded to us and more of what we produce will remain in the atmosphere … it will accelerate climate change, said Bellerby.

Kills biodiversity University of Miami ’11 (University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, 5-30-11, “Ocean acidification will likely reduce diversity, resiliency in coral reef ecosystems,” http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110529184043.htm) //ER A new study from University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science scientists Chris Langdon, Remy Okazaki and Nancy Muehllehner and colleagues from the Australian Institute of Marine Science and the Max-Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Germany concludes that ocean acidification, along with increased ocean temperatures, will likely severely reduce the diversity and resilience of coral reef ecosystems within this century. The research team studied three natural volcanic CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea to better understand how ocean acidification will impact coral reefs ecosystem diversity. The study details the effects of long-term exposure to high levels of carbon dioxide and low pH on Indo-Pacific coral reefs, a condition that is projected to occur by the end of the century as increased human-made CO2 emissions alter the current pH level of seawater, turning the oceans acidic. "These 'champagne reefs' are natural analogs of how coral reefs may look in 100 years if ocean acidification conditions continue to get worse," said Langdon, UM Rosenstiel School professor and co-principal investigator of the study. The study shows shifts in the composition of coral species and reductions in biodiversity and recruitment on the reef as pH declined from 8.1 to 7.8. The team also reports that reef development would cease at a pH below 7.7. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report estimates that by the end of the century, ocean pH will decline from the current level of 8.1 to 7.8, due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. "The seeps are probably the closest we can come to simulating the effect of human-made CO2 emissions on a coral reef," said Langdon. "They allow us to see the end result of the complex interactions between species under acidic ocean conditions." The reefs detailed in this study have healthy reefs nearby to supply larvae to replenish the reefs. If pH was low throughout the region -- as projected for year 2100 -- then there would not be any healthy reefs to reseed damaged ones, according to Langdon. The research was funded by the Australian Institute of Marine Science, the University of Miami, and the Max-Planck Institute of Marine Microbiology through the Bioacid Project (03F0608C). Phytoplankton Scenario

Ocean acidification creates toxic phytoplankton – collapses the food chain and leads to massive deaths Baskin and Bruno ’14 - * an environmental reporter, whose work on the subject began with a project for the King Conservation District. Green Acre Radio was born shortly afterward. Her work is currently supported by the Human Links Foundation. She was one of the founding reporters for Pacifica's Free Speech Radio News and has been a contributor to the National Radio Project's Making Contact, ** the Editor-in-Chief of Crosscut (*Martha, **Mary, “Acid seas threaten creatures that supply half the world's oxygen”, Crosscut.com, 6/16/14, http://crosscut.com/2014/06/16/environment/120507/aboard-rv-melville-ocean- acidfication-baskin/?page=single) //CW What happens when phytoplankton, the (mostly) single-celled organisms that constitute the very foundation of the marine food web, turn toxic? Their toxins often concentrate in the shellfish and many other marine species (from zooplankton to whales) that feed on phytoplankton. Recent trailblazing research by a team of scientists aboard the RV Melville shows that ocean acidification will dangerously alter these microscopic plants, which nourish a menagerie of sea creatures and produce up to 60 percent of the earth's oxygen. The researchers worked in carbon saturated waters off the West Coast, a living laboratory to study the effects of chemical changes in the ocean brought on by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. A team of scientists from NOAA's Fisheries Science Center and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, along with teams from universities in Maine, Hawaii and Canada focused on the unique "upwelled" zones of California, Oregon and Washington. In these zones, strong winds encourage mixing, which pushes deep, centuries-old CO2 to the ocean surface. Their findings could reveal what oceans of the future will look like. The picture is not rosy. Scientists already know that ocean acidification, the term used to describe seas soured by high concentrations of carbon, causes problems for organisms that make shells. “What we don't know is the exact effects ocean acidification will have on marine phytoplankton communities,” says Dr. Bill Cochlan, the biological oceanographer from San Francisco State University oceanographer who was the project’s lead investigator. “Our hypothesis is that ocean acidification will affect the quantity and quality of certain metabolities within the phytoplankton, specifically lipids and essential fatty acids.” Acidic waters appear to make it harder for phytoplankton to absorb nutrients. Without nutrients they're more likely to succumb to disease and toxins. Those toxins then concentrate in the zooplankton, shellfish and other marine species that graze on phytoplankton. Consider the dangerous diatom Pseudo-nitzschia (below). When ingested by humans, toxins from blooms of this single-celled algae can cause permanent short-term memory loss and in some cases death, according to Dr. Vera Trainer, an oceanographer with NOAA's Fisheries Marine Biotoxins Program. Laboratory studies show that when acidity (or pH) is lowered, Pseudo-nitzschia cells produce more toxin. When RV Melville researchers happened on a large bloom of Pseudo-nitzschia off the coast of Point Sur in California, where pH levels are already low, they were presented with a rare opportunity, explains Trainer, to see if their theory “holds true in the wild.” Multiple phytoplankton populations became the subjects of deck-board experiments throughout the Melville’s 26-day cruise, which began in mid-May and finished last week. Another worrisome substance is domoic acid, a neuro-toxin produced by a species of phytoplankton. Washington has a long history of domoic acid outbreaks. The toxin accumulates in mussels and can wind up in humans. “ Changes in the future ocean could stimulate the levels of domoic acid in the natural population,” says Professor Charles Trick, a biologist with Western University in Ontario, and one of the RV Melville researchers. Which means that the acidified oceans of tomorrow could nurture larger and more vigorous outbreaks of killer phytoplankton, which could spell death to many marine species. During their nearly month-long cruise, researchers observed the most intense upwelling in California, which is typical for spring and early summer. Upwelling may increase off the coasts of Oregon and Washington in mid-late summer and fall. The research team took multiple measurements and water samples off all three coasts in waters of both low and high pH. Part of their hypothesis is that concentrations of essential fatty acids are lower when pH is low. They need to establish what exactly “lower'” means, but the bottom line is that fewer essential fatty acids means a less nutritional diet for fish and other organisms. If the interaction between CO2, ocean acidity and nutrient supply to phytoplankton and other ocean-going creatures isn't something you can wrap your head around, try this: Every second breath you take is due to phytoplankton. Those single cells generate the lion’s share of the world's O2. “ If they're out of balance,” says Trainer, “the rest of life on earth is going to be out of balance.” Eerily, observes Trainer, scientists like her who are carefully documenting what's happening with the world’s phytoplankton populations are “in some ways documenting our demise. I hope we communicate well enough so that the public realizes [this threat] is real.” To help spread the word, researchers brought two teachers along on their ocean acidification cruise. Tray Joyner, a middle school science teacher from Chattanooga, Tennessee, and high school chemistry teacher Denis Costello from Katy, Texas, both blogged regularly for their students. The fallout from ocean acidification and other side effects of climate change will likely dog that generation and those that follow. Based on the work of scientists aboard the RV Melville, the fallout has already begun. "It's not something in the future,” says Trainer. “It’s happening now.”

Ocean changes effect plankton which are key to life on earth Borenstein 10 – (Seth, “Plankton, base of ocean food web, in a big decline”, NBC news, 7/28, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/38451744/ns/us_news-environment/#.U9BIoqgwLkd)//JFHH WASHINGTON — Despite their tiny size, plant plankton found in the world's oceans are crucial to much of life on Earth. They are the foundation of the bountiful marine food web, produce half the world's oxygen and suck up harmful carbon dioxide . They also are declining sharply . Worldwide phytoplankton levels are down 40 percent since the 1950s , according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature. The probable cause is global warming, which makes it hard for the plant plankton to get vital nutrients, researchers say. The numbers are both staggering and disturbing, say the Canadian scientists who did the study and a top U.S. government scientist. "It's concerning because phytoplankton is the basic currency for everything going on in the ocean," said Dalhousie University biology professor Boris Worm, a study co-author. "It's almost like a recession ... that has been going on for decades." Half a million datapoints dating to 1899 show that plant plankton levels in almost all the world's oceans started to drop in the 1950s. The biggest changes are in the Arctic, southern and equatorial Atlantic and equatorial Pacific oceans. Only the Indian Ocean is not showing a decline. The study's authors said it is too early to say that plant plankton is on the verge of vanishing. Virginia Burkett, the chief climate change scientist for the U.S. Geological Survey, said plankton numbers are worrisome and show problems that cannot be seen just by watching bigger more charismatic species like dolphins or whales. Advertise "These tiny species are indicating that large-scale changes in the ocean are affecting the primary productivity of the planet," said Burkett, who was not involved in the study. When plant plankton plummet, as they do during El Nino climate cycles, sea birds and marine mammals starve and die in huge numbers, experts said. "Phytoplankton ultimately affects all of us in our daily lives," said lead author Daniel Boyce, also of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. "Much of the oxygen in our atmosphere today was produced by phytoplankton or phytoplankton precursors over the past 2 billion years." Plant plankton — some of it visible, some microscopic — help keep Earth cool. They take carbon dioxide, the key greenhouse gas, out of the air to keep the world from getting even warmer, Boyce said. Worm said when the surface of the ocean gets warmer, the warm water at the top does not mix as easily with the cooler water below. That makes it more difficult for the plant plankton, which are light and often live near the ocean surface, to get nutrients in deeper, cooler water. It also matches other global warming trends, with the biggest effects at the poles and around the equator

***Whale Malthus*** Good Generic

Whaling creates an increase in whale population – whaling is inevitable which short-circuits their offense Happynook, 2K – Head Hereditary Whaling Chief of the Huu-ay-aht First Nation, HFN Treaty Negotiations at the Huu-ay-aht First Nation, Chairman of the World Council of , Chairman Chief of the World Council of Whalers, President of the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council, Chief of the Pacific Business & Law Institute(Tom Mexsis, “The Social, Cultural and Economic Importance of “Subsistence” Whaling,” International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, Oregon State University, http://oregonstate.edu/dept/IIFET/2000/abstracts/happynook.html)//vivienne So, when we speak of "subsistence whaling", we are not referring to whaling done out of desperation, or a practice which demands the parties involved be dressed in the fashion of their ancestors 500 years ago. Indeed, “subsistence” hardly seems an appropriate word. It is a category imposed on traditional whaling peoples by a section of society whose view of nature has been clouded. With a proper understanding of what we mean when we are discussing subsistence, the values of whaling will be properly understood because they extend into the realm of culture, spirituality and economics. Topics not easily explained to those who insist that we must endure starvation before we may properly subsist; that we "do not need to whale anymore", as though our fundamental physical, psychological and spiritual needs differ from our ancestors; that we do not need to fulfill our responsibilities within the ecology’s of our ancestral territories. Our social, cultural and economic practices are diverse because the environments we live in are diverse. We have evolved in harmony with the natural systems around us, and whaling is no exception; indeed, it is a prime example. For indigenous whaling peoples it is, at its most fundamental level, a very visible relationship between humans and the natural world. The ecological relationships that unite hunters and the hunted continue: Orcas hunt whales, some whales eat fish; some fish eat , some whales eat krill. So what is missing? What has been consciously suppressed out of concern for the whale stocks? It is the ability of people to once again be a part of the web of life. It is time to once again become a part of the ecosystems which sustain us. This is the root of subsistence. Whaling, as with all other “subsistence” activities, has always had a commercial aspect. In the Pacific Northwest whale products were traded great distances inland for items not readily available on the coast. This was accomplished through a complex and established network of traditional trading routes. However, it represented more than a trade of goods, it was also a way in which political, social, and familial ties with distant and neighboring peoples was established, maintained, and strengthened. Commerce has a central role in social and cultural subsistence; something often forgotten in the western world's insistence that economic activities must exist as a separate category. Indigenous whalers no longer trade for stone tools. Whaling communities, like communities everywhere, require cash to function in the twenty-first century. Who can say what commerce will look like in another thousand years. The medium of exchange may change, but the principles of respectful, sustainable and ecologically sensitive utilization will not. These fundamental understandings will continue to be passed down as cultural bio- diversity. When the term “commercial” is used there are voices that cry out from distant urban centers that whaling must stop; that the “slaughter” must end. Meanwhile the protest industry conjures up images of the unforgivable over exploitation of whales to generate a whirlwind of concern. At the heart of these cries and fabrications exists the misguided impression that there is a global reemergence of industrial whaling. To a generation schooled in the Western world on the excess of industry, whose daily bread may itself be toxic, and whose fears are exploited by a protest industry bent on using them, commercial whaling is presented as a symptom of “our” presumed slide into ecological devastation. In spite of all the emotions, what needs to be emphasized and understood is the difference between the “industrial self-regulated whaling” of the past and the sustainable, science based “commercial whaling” of today. The truth is very different. Whaling has never stopped in fact only five percent of the world’s whaling falls under the jurisdiction of the International Whaling Commission. Furthermore, whale populations have increased in conjunction with sustainable whaling and indeed is continuing to flourish . The period of the industrial whaling superpowers is well past; whaling today is small-scale, sustainable, vital and in most cases commercial. As the unsustainable harvest of the industrial whaling superpowers plowed through entire stocks, and then promptly collapsed; the small-scale, traditional, sustainable whaling peoples of the world (whose activities preceded the industrial harvest by, in many cases, centuries) were left visible in its wake practicing time honored, proven methods of traditional ecological knowledge. Decades before the inception of environmental organizations such as Sea Shepherd, coastal communities and indigenous whalers were left to deal with the damage done to whale stocks. In some cases, they consciously ceased hunting completely, to allow the stocks to recover. This was done in full awareness of the suffering this would visit upon their communities but knew it would be in the long term interests of both whale and alike. The world will not witness a return to the self-regulated industrial whaling of the past. The global market for whale products is limited, outside of dietary requirements for meat and blubber, and the need for bone and baleen for traditional works of art. It is practically non-existent. Synthetic oils have replaced the need for to lubricate the machinery of industry, perfumes are no longer made from and corsets no longer need baleen. In economic terms, it can be said that the contemporary world is one in which whale stocks far exceed current and projected market demand for whale products. A return to the industrial scale whaling of the past would certainly be cause for alarm for everyone, in particular the small-scale whalers of today. The lessons of the industrial whaling period will not be forgotten; the world will make sure of that, as will the whalers. The return to tradition leads to a return to whaling for whaling peoples. The return to whaling leads to a return to tradition. Either way, a return to whaling is inevitable. In a time when the call to live a more ecological lifestyle is all around, the re-emergence of locally specific, respectful, sustainable harvesting should be applauded, rather than protested. Is it better to continue living in a state of dependency on external support, and detachment from our immediate ecology’s, or is it better to become more integrated? At one time the environmental movement was searching for a "better" state of living, a new model for living which awakens environmental consciousness in the people, and integrates the social world with the natural world. Yet here we have people, indigenous peoples, who have lived this way for millennia. Unfortunately, we are opposed in this, ironically by those who do so in the name of this search for a "better" way of living within our environment. Such people actually believe that they have a deeper, more "evolved" and more "holistic" understanding of whales than those who have lived in relationship with them for millennia. They often state "no one who knew whales as I do could conceive of hunting them" as if the dislike of killing, and a sense that whales are worthy of respect were a consequence of this supposed deeper knowledge of whales. However, understanding and respecting the whale magnificence does not make it "wrong" to subsist on them. At the very least, we must move the debate from the realm of emotion and protest profiteering, to the realm of logic and ecology. Emotion is powerful, immediate, and a good source of financial support for one's cause. One is able to take immediate advantage of the public and gain financial support in the process. But this is very dangerous. Emotion changes much faster than ecology.... people become desensitized to emotional pleas over a relatively short period of time. You can see it happening already. People are getting extremely tired of the protest industry. Where will this overemphasis on emotion, to the detriment of ecology, leave the public’s understanding of nature 20 years from now? When emotional appeals no longer work, and ecology has become a casualty of the overemphasis on emotion. Even as whaling peoples seek to embody the traditional principles that the resources and ecosystems remain healthy for seven generations after we are gone, it is conceivable that the protest industry could exhaust the public's interest in, and understanding of ecology within mere decades. From this perspective whaling represents a key example of the very notion of stewardship, and ecological awareness that many claim is lacking in the industrialized world.

Uniqueness – Whale Population High Now

Populations high now Vanguard 6/16 – Yarmouth Country Newspaper (“Right whales population passes 500,” Yarmouth County News, June 16, http://www.thevanguard.ca/News/2014-06-16/article- 3765352/Right-whales-population-passes-500/1)//vivienne The population of North Atlantic is bouncing back, helped by rerouting of ship traffic in the Bay of Fundy. The right whale population now exceeds 500, the highest population on record since research began three decades ago. In 2003, Irving Oil in Saint John worked with academics, professional mariners, environmental groups, the Canadian government, and the International Maritime Organization to reroute shipping lanes away from a significant right whale feeding ground and nursery habitat area. It was the first time in maritime history that shipping lanes were altered to protect an endangered species, and the changes reduced the risk of ship-whale collisions in the traffic lanes by 90 per cent. Seventeen years ago, Irving Oil began working with the New England Aquarium to protect the endangered species. Since then, the company’s contribution to protecting the North Atlantic right whale has totaled more than $1 million and helps fund right whale research, conservation, and education. For two months each summer and fall, researchers conduct shipboard surveys of North Atlantic right whales in the Bay of Fundy critical habitat area. They record whale sightings, track calving records and mortality rates, help untangle whales caught in fishing gear, and collect information regarding acoustics, genetics, and social behaviour. Over the winter months, researchers analyze their data to monitor the health of the population, and create additional programs that will help protect the North Atlantic right whale. "The work our research team undertakes in the Bay of Fundy is critical to the right whale's long term survival and it wouldn't be possible without the help of Irving Oil," says Moira Brown, senior scientist at the New England Aquarium. "Our partnership is protecting right whales. Over 300 calves have been born since 1998 and the right whale population now numbers over 500."

Whale populations increasing in the SQ Gerber 2k (Leah R. Gerber, Douglas P. DeMaster and Simona Perry Roberts, “Measuring Success in Conservation: Assessing efforts to restore populations of marine mammals is partly a matter of epistemology: How do you know when enough is enough?,” Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society, American Scientist, 2000, JStor)//ER Status Assessments On the other hand, there is adequate in formation to at least begin assessing some populations of large whales, in cluding bowhead, gray, humpback and right whales. Some of these populations are showing signs of recovery. The most notable of these is the eastern North Pa cific population of gray whale. This population was removed from the ESA List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife in June 1994. The population size is currently estimated at 26,635 re flecting an annual increase of approxi mately 2.5 percent between 1968 and 1998. In addition, the western North At lantic, eastern North Pacific, and central North Pacific populations of humpback whales are all relatively large and are thought to be increasing. Recent reports also suggest that populations of hump back whales in some areas of the South ern Hemisphere are recovering, as is the western Arctic bowhead population. As we gather more information about the size and structure of these popula tions and we enact measures to reduce human impacts on them, such popula tions may be considered for dowi?isting or delisting. Of course, this assumes that sometime in the future investigators will have obtained enough population infor mation to develop objective criteria for recovery and that these criteria will be adopted either generically for large whales or on a case-specific basis. Blue-whale populations on the West Coast of North America are also show ing signs of growth. The population in the waters off California, Oregon and Washington is estimated at 1,927. Al though additional data are still neces sary on population structure, trends in abundance and habitat requirements, this population may also soon be a can didate for downlisting. In addition, some populations of right whales in the Southern Hemisphere are known to be increasing. Although still small relative to their pre-exploitation populations, these increases in abundance for southern right whales are encouraging. Unfortunately, there are also data in dicating that several populations of large whales are in danger of extinction. Their populations are already greatly diminished and they remain threatened by human activities. These endangered species include all populations of the northern right whale, the eastern Arctic and Okhotsk Sea populations of bow head whales, the western North Pacific population of gray whales and several populations of blue whales. Environment Scenario

Whales are eating too many fish that are critical to solve human famine and environmental destruction ICR, 13 (Institute of Cetacean Research, “Japan's Whale Research: What's it all about?,” http://archive.today/rDMV6) //vivienne The amount of scientific data gathered by Japan's research program is extensive, including: There is a large and increasing number of young Minke whales; There are at least two separate breeding groups of Antarctic Minke whales, whit slightly different genetic make-ups and geographical distributions; Female Minkes reach maturity at about 7-8 years and reproduce about once per year; Minke whales consume about 220kg of feed daily; and Contaminant levels in Antarctic Minke whales are very low (in contrast, contaminant levels in the Arctic are high). Much has been learned about the feeding habits of whales through analysis of stomach contents and other tests. These tests indicate the blubber thickness of whales has decreased since the 1970s. It is suggested this may be due to decreased food intake caused by growing competition for food between whale species. In fact, scientists now believe the population recovery of the endangered Blue whale is being damaged by the increasing number of non-endangered Minke whales. They believe that to help endangered species we must manage other species that are abundant in number. This is called the multi-species management approach. Exactly the same principles apply in Australia's annual cull of kangaroos. Lessons for fisheries management & human food resources: Japan's scientific study has also revealed that whales consume some 500 million tonnes of fish resources per year (up to six times total human consumption). The bulk of this is consumed by non-endangered whale species. This knowledge is useful in helping to plan ways to sustainably feed the world's population. Fishing will become increasingly important in this task (particularly given the environmental problems caused by the massive amounts of land clearing and deforestation going on to produce red meat). With about 35% of the world's fishery resources already over-exploited and another 25% exploited to their fullest extent, the role of whales in the ecosystem should be carefully considered.

Sustainable whaling is key to environmental processes that maintain biodiversity Estes et al ‘9 (J. A. Estes1'*, D. F. Doak2, A. M. Springer3 and T. M. Williams1 1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA 2 Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82072, USA 3 Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA, “Causes and Consequences of Population Declines in Southwest Alaska – A Food-Web Perspective,” Royal Society Publishing, JStor)//ER 8. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Several important points are evident from these analyses. First, the production potential of great whales and small marine mammals are roughly equivalent if we assume that the small marine mammals are consumed in their entirety while only a single meal is taken from a large whale kill. If large numbers of transient killer whales are attracted to and feed on large whale kills (as has been observed - Pitman et al. 2001); if killer whales cache large whale carcasses in order to obtain multiple meals from them, as they apparently do (C. Matkin 2008, personal communication); if there is surplus killing, or if some animals escape attacks but are wounded and later die, as apparently sometimes occurs (Sheldon et al. 2003); or if some small marine mammals are only partially consumed, as occurs with small cetaceans such as belugas (Vos & Shelden 2005) and Dall's porpoise (R. Brewer 2008, personal communication), then larger proportions of the total mortalities would have to go into fuelling killer whales to sustain the system. Second, whaling strongly influenced the estimated points of proportional sustainability. Before whaling, the entire present-day transient killer whale population could have sustained itself by taking a single meal from some 20-40% of the great whale deaths, depending on the exact scenario (see above). Great whales today are incapable of sustaining transient killer whales, unless adults and calves of all species are being eaten (figure 5). Third, approximately 30 per cent of all marine mammal deaths would have to be consumed by transient killer whales to achieve sustainability in the present-day system. By themselves, approximately 60 per cent of the total small marine mammal deaths would have to be consumed to achieve sustainability. This seems rather high based on comparable measures from other large predator-large prey systems. Fourth, all of these conclusions are sensitive to minimizing assumptions. If the population of transient killer whales is much larger than the 400 or so individuals known from photo identification, small marine mammals by themselves could not sustain these predators under any calculable circumstance. Even more importantly, each of our specific analyses is based on the assumption that all prey species are being consumed simultaneously as a common, maximum sustainable resource. If there is any species selectivity in transient killer whale foraging in space or time, the likelihood of small marine mammal population persistence as a killer whale prey resource would probably be much diminished, especially in the absence of great whale food subsidies. Although our inferences concerning the sustain- ability of interactions between killer whales and their marine mammal prey are based entirely on models and simplifying assumptions, it is important to keep in mind the conservative nature of our most important metric - the prey requirements of killer whales. As pointed out above, the estimate of transient killer whale abundance is an empirically derived minimal value. If the population of transients is larger than this, the array of sustainable scenarios becomes even fewer and more demanding of multiple prey. Likewise, the estimate of field metabolic rate employed in our demographic/energetic model is a stripped-down conservative value. Lactation, pregnancy and growth, the likelihood that lean meat as opposed to blubber is often consumed and the differential activity costs will all act to increase energetic requirements, which again would act to decrease the array of sustainable scenarios. For some of these - activity and lactation being two of the most important - the impact on energetic costs can be four- to sixfold higher than our estimates (e.g. Williams et al. 2007). More generally, our descriptions and analyses of marine food webs in southwest Alaska provide evidence for a diversity of important linkages and interactions involving large vertebrates. The recent collapse of sea otter populations has resulted in a wholesale reorganization of the kelp forest ecosystem, with effects extending to multiple species from the bottom to the top of the food web. Although more speculative, similarly strong food-web interactions involving large vertebrates appear to have occurred in the oceanic ecosystem, even acting in such a manner as to link with the coastal systems through a predator-prey relationship between killer whales and sea otters. By perturbing these predator-prey assemblages, the potential has been established for population oscillations and alternative stable states. Both seem likely, the more so because of the longevity of the predators involved and the relatively slow rate of marine mammal population increase. The loss of sea otters clearly drove the coastal ecosystem to an alternative phase state, a shift that may also be characterized by hysteresis (Sheffer et al. 2001). The depletion of large whales may have set in motion an ecological chain reaction of such profound strength and complexity that reversibility might take decades or may even no longer be possible. There can be little doubt that marine mammals are central players in the dynamics of higher latitude marine food webs. This conclusion is reinforced by growing evidence for key ecological roles of large vertebrates in other ecosystems, including wolves, grizzly bears and cougars in North America (McLaren & Peterson 1994; Berger et al. 2001; Ripple et al. 2001), large felids and birds of prey in the New World tropics (Terborgh et al. 2001), sharks in coastal marine systems (Myers et al. 2007) and large predators in Africa (Sinclair et al. 2003; Owen-Smith & Mills 2008). The implications for conservation are profound. Strategic habitat manage- ment is necessary but insufficient for the maintenance of biodiversity. Biodiversity conservation, in addition, requires the maintenance or restoration of food-web interactions involving large vertebrates. Fisheries Scenario

Whales eat all the fish – prevents human consumption Struck ’01 - is associate chair of the Journalism Department at Emerson College in Boston. He has been a journalist for more than 30 years, covering a wide range of assignments as a both a national and foreign correspondent for the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun. He reported from Iraq repeatedly over 14 years, and helped cover conflicts in Afghanistan, the West Bank, Lebanon, East Timor, the southern Philippines and Sudan (Doug, “Japan says gluttonous whales are threatening fish stocks / Minkes called 'the cockroach of the ocean'”, 6/27/01, SF Gate, http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Japan-says-gluttonous-whales-are-threatening-fish- 2894755.php) //CW 2001-07-27 04:00:00 PDT Tokyo -- This is Japan's latest argument for resuming its whale hunt: Whales eat too much. As part of its effort to resume commercial whaling and justify its annual catch of about 500 whales for "research," Japan now argues that whales consume more than their share of fish -- fish that should be eaten by humans. "Whales are increasing as fish stocks decline!" trumpets the headline of a half-page advertisement taken out in domestic and international newspapers by a government pro-whaling institute. " Whales are threatening our fisheries." Japan has been trying to lift the international ban on whaling imposed in 1986 and rescue what used to be a thriving industry. This week, its delegates headed to the annual meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) to press its case again, and to block countermoves by anti-whaling countries to toughen the ban. The Japanese delegation stumbled over its public relations en route to the meeting in London. Masayuki Komatsu, one of Japan's whaling negotiators, said in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corp. last week that "there are too many" minke whales, calling them "the cockroach of the ocean." He also seemed to confirm long-standing suspicions that Japan was giving foreign aid to developing countries to "buy" support at the 43-nation whaling commission meetings. "To get appreciation of Japan's position, that is natural we must resort" to using overseas development aid and diplomatic persuasion, Komatsu said. Anti- whaling countries are expected to prevail this week as Japan tries to weaken or end the moratorium, which covers 13 species of large whales. "We'd like to see the (end of the ban) this year or next," Joji Morishita, deputy director of Japan's Fisheries Agency, said in London. "This year might be difficult, but we have high hopes for next year." Japan is arguing, on what it says are scientific grounds, that whales are becoming an alarming competitor to humans for food from the sea. "The scientists at our institute calculated that the present world fisheries catch is about 90 to 100 million tons per year," said Mitsuyoshi Murakami, executive director of Japan's Institute of Cetacean Research, which is supported by the estimated $7 million in proceeds from the sale of meat from whales killed by Japan. "We estimated the total volume of fish which are eaten by whales is approximately three to four times the world fisheries catch," Murakami said. "Humans are in the position of the highest rank of the ecosystem. If we leave some world species untouchable, they will increase" and compete with humans for food, he said. The argument resonates in Japan, with its aggressive fishing industry and unbounded national appetite for all shapes, sizes and varieties of seafood. "The whales eat the same small fish our fishermen catch," said Toshihiko Abe, who runs a struggling whale-meat processing plant in Ayukawa, a tiny fishing village on Japan's Pacific coast. "Before the whaling moratorium, we had coexistence," he said. "Now, because of the whaling ban, the minkes do whatever they want, and our fish catch is decreasing."

Whales compete with fisheries—they’ll crush the industry Tamura and Ohsumi, 10 –The Institute of Cetacean Research, 4-18 Toyomi-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo (Tsutomu and Seiji, The Institute of Cetacean Research, “Regional assessments of prey consumption by marine cetaceans in the world,” Dec 20, http://www.icrwhale.org/pdf/SC-52- E6.pdf)//vivienne The total annual prey consumption by 37 species out of 75 species of marine cetaceans in the world was assessed. The assessment was based on 1) recently available abundance estimates of cetaceans, 2) daily prey consumption rates of cetaceans estimated by use of three methods, 3) estimated biomass of cetaceans by use of average body weight and abundance, and 4) composition of prey species of cetaceans. The annual prey consumption of cetaceans was estimated for three ocean regions, the Southern Hemisphere including the Indian Ocean (121-245 million tons), the North Pacific (62-85 million tons) and the North Atlantic (55-107 million tons). Total annual prey consumption by cetaceans in the world was estimated to be 249-436 million tons as the minimum, because our data are not covered on all cetacean species and whole the distribution areas of them. The fish consumption by cetaceans in the Southern Hemisphere including the Indian Ocean was estimated to be 18-32 million tons and accounted for 66-120% of commercial fisheries catches in 1996. In the case of the North Pacific, the fish consumption was estimated to be 21-30 million tons and accounted for 66-96% of commercial fisheries catches in 1996. In the North Atlantic, the fish consumption by cetaceans was 15-25 million tons and accounted for 87-144% of commercial fisheries catches in 1996. We consider that at least, there was probably direct competition between cetaceans and commercial fisheries in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. However, as the information on the abundance of cetaceans was not included for all species, the actual figures of annual prey consumption by all cetaceans are most probably larger than present results. More information of abundance, body weight and prey composition of cetaceans in each region is necessary to consider competition between cetaceans and commercial fisheries in order to address a more realistic for strategy fisheries management and the conservation of cetaceans in future.

Kills a billion people Cury and Shin, 07 (L'Institut de recherché pour le développement, environmental research organization, “Marine Ecosystems : towards responsible and sustainable fisheries” Date last modified, Jan 15, http://www.mpl.ird.fr/suds-en-ligne/ecosys/ang_ecosys/pdf/ecosys_intro.pdf) Ocean resources are diminishing dangerously due to overfishing, pollution and global warming. This depletion is of particular concern in southern countries, where fish, a source of revenue for millions of people, takes on major importance in terms of food security. In this context, scientific research has an essential rôle to play. For scientists, one of the main stakes is to better quantify the effects of fisheries on ecosystems. Many gaps are still to be found in this domain, for it is only recently that research efforts have focused on the functioning of ecosystems as a whole. A billion people dependent on fish in the world On a world-wide scale, approximately one billion people are dependent on fish as the principal source of animal protein. Since the 1960s, the availability of fish and fish by-products per inhabitant has practically doubled (with an average consumption of 16 kg of fish per person per year at the end of the 1990s), rapidly gaining on demographic growth, which also nearly doubled over the same period. In low-income food- deficit countries where the current consumption of sea products is close to half of that of the richest countries, the contribution of fish to total protein in- take is considerable, neighboring 20%. In certain insular or coastal countries of high population density, fish protein is a deciding dietary contributor, providing at least 50% of total protein intake (Bangladesh, North Korea, Ghana, Guinea, Indonesia, Japan, Senegal, etc.). From years of “miraculous fishing” to stock collapse Although the oceans were considered inexhaustible in the last century, many fisheries today show signs of senescence. A brief history of fisheries gives the measure of the problem. The 1950s marked the beginning of a very rapid increase in fishery activity. During the 1950s and 1960s, the enormous global expansion of fishery effort and power was coupled with ever-growing catches, at a rate so rapid that they tended to exceed population growth. In the space of two decades, world production of continental and marine catches was multiplied three-fold, from 18 million tons in 1950 to 56 million tons in 1969. During these miracle years of fishing, marine resources were thought to be inexhaustible. Then, over the 70s and 80s, average growth rates fell to 2% per year, and then to practically zero during the 90s and ever since, while the number of boats and their efficiency has continued to rise. In the space of two decades, world production of continental and marine catches has been multiplied by three, from 18 million tons in 1950 to 56 million tons in 1969. The same conclusion has been drawn locally and globally for commercial and artisanal fisheries alike in both the northern hemisphere and in tropical waters: the world’s fisheries seem to have reached their maximum potential, and given that three-quarters of all fish populations are fully exploited or overexploited, there will probably be no significant increases in total catches in the future. Food Security Scenario

Increased whaling solves for food security – their “whaling bad” arguments lack scientific data Kawakami, 94 – Professor of Faculty of Law at Kyoto University (Rin’itsu, “Save Whaling,” from "ISANA" No. 11, 1994, http://luna.pos.to/whale/jwa_v11_kawa.html)//vivienne First, let me begin with my conclusion. There is only one course of action open to Japan on the whaling issue. It is to defend vigorously and preserve the art of the whaling based on solid scientific grounds; to work toward a full lifting of the whaling ban to attain sustainable utilization of marine living resources; to refuse to bend to absurd international pressures or propaganda. If necessary, withdrawal from the International Whaling Commission (IWC) should be considered, since the commission has veered away from the original stipulations of its convention. If that happens, measures must also be taken to counter unfounded propaganda that could reach international proportions. Japan must make ceaseless efforts to counteract anti-whaling propaganda through international public relations, and to counter expected anti- whaling propaganda inside Japan as well. The worst choice is to buy into the idea that this is a "small problem", or to simply give up. There is absolutely no need to fear international isolation. Anti- whaling, part of so called "international opinion", is based on exaggerations perpetrated by the English- speaking media, and is advanced under the influence of an ideology lacking conclusive scientific evidence, as those who understand the facts (even those taking the anti-whaling position) must concede. The disadvantage of choosing to defend whaling are as follows: It may result in adding fuel to the fire for conscienceless professional anti-whaling propagandists; and it may represent unwitting cooperation with those intent on diverting the attention of political forces critical of typical post- Vietnam U.S. government policies, channeling such forces toward "alien" Japan and her whaling practices. There are, however, distinct advantages, one of which being that persistent demanding of resumption of whaling will incur the possibility for Japan, as a non-Western nation, to contribute to [human] man kind in the twenty-first century in an important way, as I will detail later. Leaders of the anti-whaling movements, using the IWC as their stage, must surely acknowledge in their hearts the faultless logic of the Japanese position, as well as the lack of a scientific basis and fairness in their own position and methodology. There is a good possibility over the long term, and amid changes in circumstances, that these leaders may drastically change their position and some may even regret their folly (though this may be unrealistic to expect). The Japanese delegation to the IWC has consistently been worthy of the highest praise if we consider the unfair composition of the IWC, especially its propensity to ignore rules on the strength of a majority vote, its untruthful claims basic to the anti-whaling position, the absurdity of its policy decision procedures, as well as the isolated position of member whaling nations. The Japanese delegation has drawn strength from their sense of purpose and their belief that scientific, logical debate will win in the end. The strong stance they have taken thus far must be maintained, as must repeated efforts toward resumption of whaling. What, then, should be done to maintain this scientifically proven position for resuming whaling activities? Japan must assert once more the self-evident fact that conclusive scientific data and logical debate alone will provide the basis for mutual understanding and coexistence among differing cultures. Indeed I must strongly stress the ethical nature of this position. Efforts must be made to widely publicize the nature of this scientific debate. The blind neglect of science inherent in the anti-whaling stance may cause an increasing sense of moral responsibility among conscientious anti- whaling movement members. And defending the whaling industry may serve to arrest the growth of increasingly strong attitudes against the fishing industry itself that have culminated in the proposal of restrictions on bluefin tuna fishing. Proposing to maintain an active whaling industry is, in effect, a form of passive resistance serving as a barricade against animosity toward the fishing industry, and against hostility toward Japanese culinary ("raw fish eating") customs. In other words, if the anti-whaling movement were to succeed completely, I believe absolutely that the next targets would be Japanese fishing practices and Japanese culinary culture. Defending whaling will also represent an active resistance against accepting Western values as absolute; it also presents uniquely Japanese values, which helps promote a desire to understand people with differing value systems by contrasting them with one's own values. Sustainable utilization of marine living resources will be a key to resolving the food crisis expected from an approaching population explosion. The duty of Japan is to use the skills developed through deep-sea fishing, including Antarctic whaling, not as a food-glutted "economic superpower" but as a "fishing industry superpower" to benefit the entire world. I consider the "animal protection" sentiments directed toward wildlife and pets to be very valuable, but first consideration must be given to the daily lives of fellow human beings. There are vast numbers of people worldwide suffering from starvation. According to a survey taken by the World Bank, there are an estimated 1.13 billion persons living below the poverty level ($ 420 annual income per capita). By the year 2050, the world's population is expected to reach 10 billion. The key issue is how to solve the food problem, and surviving this crisis will depend on logical and scientific debate, not on emotionalism or an ideology. In debates concerning "animal protection" and "wildlife preservation", there is an obvious tendency for illogical positions that appeal to the emotions to gather strength in the public arena. Of course, every attempt should be made whenever possible to protect animals. But utilizing animal resources for human survival is not a contradictory position. For example, while [human] man kind benefits greatly from modern medicine, it is quite common to see reactionary emotional responses among people to experiments using animals, though these experiments are vital to medical developments. If reality in the anti-whaling movement shows even the experts being swayed by such emotionalism, the situation will be deplorable indeed.

Harvesting whales is prevent famine and ecological destruction—whaling is inevitable when populations explode, however whaling is key to effective management Kasamatsu, 95 – Marine Ecology Research Institute and the Institute of Cetacean Research (Fujio, “Counting whales in the Antarctic,” from Research on Whales, published by the Institute of Cetacean Research, 1995, “Sighting Survey,” http://www.icrwhale.org/sightingsurvey.htm) //vivienne *edited for gendered language* Since 1986, the human population of the world has grown at an annual rate of nearly 2%, while the production of cereals has increased by about 1% annually. Each year in China and Africa, a land area almost equal to that of Metropolitan Tokyo is transformed into desert. The huge underground aquifers of North America that have supplied irrigation water to the U.S. Midwest, an area which has played an important role in the expansion of cereal production since the 1970s, are slowly being depleted. We can no longer expect expanses of forest to be turned into farmland. On the contrary, the relentless growth of populations in some developing countries in Africa has resulted in a shortage of firewood, a basic fuel, and the demand for wood for cooking now exceeds the reproductive capacity of these countries' forests. The natural limits on land that can be given over to cereal production (land erosion and desertification) are now becoming evident, as is the finiteness of fresh water. The prospects are poor for new technologies that will supplant the chemical fertilizers which have contributed so much to expanding our agricultural and livestock production. Brown University in the U.S. has estimated that it would be possible to feed a population of some 6 billion, assuming that all foods are divided equally among all people, no cereals are used as animal foodstuff, and all humans become vegetarian (Environment in Peril, 1991). However, if everyone were to embrace the same diet as the typical North American, who derives some 35% of his or her calorific intake from animal-derived foods, the number falls by more than half to no more than 2.5 billion. The International Population Development Conference held in Cairo in 1994 failed to agree on a common policy that would check population growth, with the result that an explosion of the world's population now seems inevitable. Improving the living conditions of the world's population is no easy task when the per-capita quantity of land based resources, in our forests and on our farms, continues to fall as the population rises. The demand for marine resources that can be utilized sustainably will therefore increase sharply in the years to come. However, the fact that 82% of the estimated potential yield of marine resources of 120 million tons per year is already being utilized means that there is little room for further development. It is therefore essential to ensure that those resources which have already been developed are utilized as effectively as possible. Whale populations, in particular those in the Southern Hemisphere, feed on plankton and deep-sea squid which humans cannot utilize directly or on a large scale. Therefore, sustainable utilization of whales entails not only their direct utilization but also the effective utilization on a global scale of unutilized resources via whales. In spite of this scientifically rational position, however, an ideology is spreading like an epidemic in the Western world that totally rejects all consumptive utilization of whales, regarding them instead as sacred creatures. In the latter half of the 20th century, our awareness of the relationship between nature and [hu]man has changed dramatically. In the United States in particular, people with Puritan beliefs, who once regarded nature as a frontier to be conquered, came to the realization, as environmental disruption became serious, that the environment in which they lived and the Earth itself were being put at risk. As they then began to question the sin of [hu]man's arrogance, their attitude toward the environment quickly changed to that of "harmony with nature and environmental friendliness." In this period of chaotic transformation, the utilization of whales as a resource became the first political issue to be raised as an example of environmental disruption and the sin of [hu]man's arrogance. Initially, the crusade was based on the scientific and conservationist concern that whales might be headed for extinction. Subsequently, however, supporters of animal rights, with a grounding in the ethics of radical environmentalism, sought to impose on the world an ideology that treated whales as sacred, and demanded an end to all consumptive use of whale resources. This movement of a minority of extreme environmentalists who hold certain animals (which are not threatened by extinction) sacred has enjoyed a steady flow of both financial and political support. It has no relevance whatsoever, however; to the concept of sustainable utilization of resources, which is fundamental to [hu]man's efforts to improve living conditions, faced as we are with an impending population explosion. It is thus incumbent on every country to place the highest priority on developing a strategy for the conservation, study, and sustainable utilization of all living resources. The solution, in the final analysis, may have to be political. Any political decision, however, will have to be buttressed by natural science, and particularly biological science. Otherwise, the result will be unbalanced development and poor utilization of resources. Ironically, cod stocks in the Northwest Atlantic, which are thought to have been depleted to about 10% of their initial level, continued to be commercially harvested up to recent times, whereas the harvesting of Southern Hemisphere minke whales, now thought to be more numerous than ever before, is banned. Extreme environmentalism and animal rights ideology applied to situations where there is no danger of extinction and where resources are abundant may very well lead, in the future, to a failure to utilize resources rationally on a global scale, and eventually to a loss of biological diversity.

Nuke war Cribb, 10 (Julian, Julian Cribb is a science communicator, journalist and editor of several newspapers and books. His published work includes over 7,000 newspaper articles, 1,000 broadcasts, and three books and has received 32 awards for science, medical, agricultural and business journalism. He was Director, National Awareness, for Australia's science agency, CSIRO, foundation president of the Australian Science Communicators, and originated the CGIAR's Future Harvest strategy. He has worked as a newspaper editor, science editor for "The Australian "and head of public affairs for CSIRO. He runs his own science communication consultancy, “The coming famine: the global food crisis and what we can do to avoid it,” p. 26) This is the most likely means by which the coming famine will affect all citizens of Earth , both through the direct consequences of refugee floods for receiving countries and through the effect on global food prices and the cost to public revenues of redressing the problem. Coupled with this is the risk of wars breaking out over local disputes about food , land, and water and the dangers that the major military powers may be sucked into these vortices, that smaller nations newly nuclear-armed may become embroiled, and that shock waves propagated by these conflicts will jar the global economy and disrupt trade, sending food prices into a fresh spiral . Indeed , an increasingly credible scenario for World War III is not so much a confrontation of superpowers and their allies as a festering , self-perpetuating chain of resource conflicts driven by the widening gap between food and energy supplies and peoples' need to secure them . AT: Whales are smart

Whales are not intelligent – its science Blok, 08 – holds an MA degree in Sociology and is currently PhD researcher at the Department of Sociology, Copenhagen University, Denmark. His PhD project deals with the knowledge politics of global environmental governance, building on the sociology of science, environment, and risk, and with cases involving biodiversity and climate change. From October 2005 to January 2007, he was postgraduate research student at Tohoku University, Japan, conducting research into Japanese whaling politics. His recent publications include "Experts on Public Trial: On Democratizing Expertise through a Danish Consensus Conference", Public Understanding of Science 16 (1) (2007); and "Actor-Networking Ceta-Sociality, or, What is Sociological about Contemporary Whales?", Distinktion: Scandinavian Journal of Social Theory 15 (2007) (Anders, “Politics of Identity in Japanese Pro-Whaling Countermobilization,” Global Environmental Politics, Volume 8, Number 2, May)//vivienne One unlikely consequence of this confrontation is the way in which the alleged intelligence of whales has become a matter of global political significance. While the science of whale intelligence and "culture" is complex and contested, 93 Japanese pro-whaling discourses squarely pronounce the non-intelligence of whales. On the English-language webpage of JWA, for instance, one reads "the proportion of a blue whale's brain to its body weight is 0.007 percent on the average, as compared with 1.93 percent for human beings."94 In a related fashion, pro-whaling advocates make frequent claims to the effect that whales are "perceived by the Japanese as a kind of fish."95 Implicit in such claims, of course, is a reference to animal hierarchies. The claims gain some credibility from institutionalized features of Japanese culture, notably the Japanese script (kanji) character for whale (kujira), which includes a radical that means fish (uoben). 96 Nevertheless, it is hard to miss the element of "self-indigenization" at stake. Contemporary Japanese are obviously aware of the basic fact that biological knowledge classifies whales as mammals, not fish. Nevertheless, the "whales-as-fish" discourse is also institutionalized in Japanese whaling policy, in that power is heavily concentrated in the Fisheries Agency. This reflects the way in which, bureaucratically and scientifically, strong attempts are made to situate whaling issues within larger questions of marine food resources. Apart from the bureaucratic embedding, this linkage is constantly reinforced in the discourses of pro-whaling advocates. For instance, in the introduction to the purpose of ICR, a research institute focused solely on whales, references are nonetheless made to restrictive measures being "imposed internationally on fisheries, including high-seas fisheries."97 Similarly, as one pro-whaling advocate puts it, whaling "is a tip of a very huge iceberg," referring to Japanese fisheries and other natural resources.98 In the discursive politics of pro-whalers, attempts are thus made to defend a principle of sustainable use of marine resources. Undoubtedly, material and symbolic interests in the lucrative (and environmentally problematic) Japanese tuna fishing industry lurk in the background of many pro-whaling discourses.99 More explicitly, situating whales in discourses of marine resources serves to link whaling to issues of food security, traditionally a strong concern in Japanese [End Page 58] politics. In a rather extreme twist of identity politics, some pro-whaling advocates thus portray whaling as a conflict between Anglo-Saxon "meat-eaters" whose "anti-fishing movement" threatens Japanese (and Asian) "fisheaters."100 It is not difficult to see how such framings tie in with previously mentioned discourses of Western cultural imperialism. Thus, Shiraishi Yuriko, the leader of the Women's Forum for Fish, a pro-whaling consumer NGO, argues for an alliance of Asian "fish food cultures" against the West in what she terms the "fish war" of the 21st century.101

Whales are stupid JWA, 10 (Japan Whaling Association, “Q&A,” Last Mod Dec 20, http://www.whaling.jp/english/qa.html)//vivienne Those who assert that the whale has a higher intelligence base their assertion on the large size of a whale's brain. It is simply natural for a whale which has large head to have a larger brain than those of other animals, but that does not necessarily mean that it has higher intelligence. In comparing the size of animal brains, we should take into consideration not only its weight but also its proportion to the body weight. The proportion of a blue whale's brain to its body weight is 0.007% on the average, as compared with 1.93% for human beings. The harbor porpoise has the highest proportion of 0.85% among cetaceans. Does that mean that the intelligence of a harbor porpoise is half the level of a human being and that of a blue whale is one hundredth of a harbor porpoise's? It is not necessarily so. It is not possible to determine the intelligence level with the brain's proportion to the body weight. The late Dr. E.J. Slijper, who was a world authority on cetaceans, said "...it seems improbable that an animal which propels itself mainly with its tail should need a more highly developed brain than, for instance, a monkey which uses all its limbs so skillfully." On a similar note, Dr. Margaret Klinowska, a professor of Cambridge University and a member of the Specialist Group of the IUCN Species Survival Commission, said that "In most species of cetaceans, the brain is neither very large nor especially complex," adding that "whales betray little evidence of behavioral complexity beyond that of a herd of cows or deer." AT: Keystone Species

Whales aren’t special—there are no critical species Koetse, 10 – Thesis in Japan Studies, Leiden University 2010 (Manya Koetse, Beyond the Whale: Japan, the West, & the Whaling Issue, http://manyapan.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/beyond-the-whale-japan-the-west-and-the-whaling- issue.pdf)//vivienne Within the range of endangered animals, there is some kind of “emotional ranking” that sets the priority for certain animals. In ‘Ten to Watch in 2010’, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) counts ten animals amongst the world’s most threatened species. The tiger, panda and polar bear all make it to the list (WWF). In other lists, such as the one by Guernsey (All About Wildlife), the Northern Right Whale and Rhinoceros also make it to the list. It seems coincidental that the most popular animals of the Western world also happen to be in the “top 10” of most threatened animals. According to renowned Dutch biologist and writer Midas Dekkers (Personal communication, 17 June 2010) this is no “coincidence”. Actually, there can be no such thing as a “top 10” of endangered animals, since there is a lack of proper information considering all the animal species in the world. Guernsey (Personal communication, 17 June 2010), supports this view, claiming that since thousands of animal species around the world are so close to extinction, that there is little scientific justification for a “top 10” list. According to Guernsey, the animals in the “top 10s” are what he calls “charismatic mega fauna” –large and appealing creatures that people can identify with. These lists of endangered species differ per organization, per country and per year, as organizations shift their priorities (Guernsey 2010). As a consequence, the range of “endangered animals” listed by organizations as WWF does not only come from a culturally constructed view; they also point to a marketing-driven view. After all, if the Chinese salamander or African spider were put amongst the world’s most endangered species, less people would feel inclined to donate to these causes. The “Super Whale” The tiger, whale, elephant or gorilla are all impressive animals that, figuratively, “compete” over attention in campaigns for endangered animals. When one looks at this range of animals, the whale takes in a special position . Pavel Klinckhamers, Greenpeace’s leader on the oceans and toxics campaign, states that the whale has always served as a symbol for the organization, not only because of it’s endangered position in nature, but also due to its intelligence. Furthermore, since the whale suffers a relatively long and painful death in the process of killing, it serves as a proper symbol for the overall destruction of nature (Personal communication June 13 2010). AT: Whale Hunting Bad - Science

No whale hunting is key to science ICR, 10 (Institute of Cetacean Research, “Japan’s whale research in the Antarctic – Backgrounder,” Last Mod Dec 20, http://www.icrwhale.org/eng/background.pdf)/vivienne The research program involves non-lethal research including sighting surveys and biopsy sampling as well as a small take of whales for research that can not be effectively done by non-lethal means. While certain information can be obtained through non-lethal means, other information requires sampling of internal organs such as ovaries, ear plugs and stomachs. For example, while the population age structure and reproductive rates of land mammals can be determined by observation over a long period of time, such is not the case for whales since they spend most of their time underwater. In this case we need ear plugs for age determination and ovaries to establish reproductive rates. Similarly, to study the interactions of whales and other parts of the marine ecosystem we need to know what they are eating. This is done by examining stomach contents. Another example is that for pollution studies, tissue samples from various internal organs are required . Whaling Bad Generic

Whaling is bad – whales are symbolic, smart, there isn’t a demand for their meat, and Japan culture isn’t based off of whaling von Bredow ’10 - Science Editor at Spiegel Online International (Rafaela, “The Global Battle over the Whales: Will Commercial Whaling Soon Become Legal?”, 6/21/10, Spiegel Online International, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the- global-battle-over-the-whales-will-commercial-whaling-soon-become-legal-a-701835.html) //CW Whales are superlatives in animal form. Their sheer size has always fascinated [hu]mankind: Growing to 30 meters in length and in some cases weighing over 150 tons, the blue whale is the largest animal on the planet. A small child could crawl through its veins; its whistling is louder than the roar of a tornado. Its tongue alone weighs more than an elephant cow. s The sperm whale -- the largest member of the suborder of toothed whales, which includes killer whales and all dolphins -- can dive to a depth of over one kilometer (0.6 miles) for over an hour without coming up for air, allowing him to battle giant squid in the murky deep. The sings complex ballads -- and composes new arias every year. Today we know that the Sirens of Odysseus were whales. Their songs caused the wooden hull of his boat to vibrate. People of the Seas Ants and meerkats also fascinate animal lovers. But whales have something special -- otherwise people would not love them so much, despite their lack of cuddly fur or endearing cuteness. These gentle giants appear to be mysterious relatives in an exotic world -- like people of the seas. The idea is perhaps not so far fetched: just like people, whales live in families, in large social groups, they speak with each other, mourn dead friends, and females care for their young with touching tenderness. And whales are clever . Orcas hunt in teams: one whale lifts an ice floe while the dim-witted seal slides into the mouth of another whale. Humpback whales, on the other hand, invented the fishing net long before humans did. The animals create a curtain of air bubbles around a school of herring and push them from below into the trap, with their mouths wide open. The intelligence of dolphins is legendary. They pass a test that has been used with apes and small children, which indicates that they have self-awareness. The philosopher Thomas White recently spoke out in favor of giving dolphins the status of "non-human persons." 'Cockroaches of the Sea' Are we allowed to hunt and slaughter creatures that are so close to us? "We have all kinds of intelligent animals," says Masayuki Komatsu, a former high-ranking civil servant in the Japanese fisheries agency. "We have pandas, cattle, pigs and deer. We can reflect on that -- or treat them all the same." Komatsu, who was his country's IWC commissioner for many years, rose to fame when he called whales the "cockroaches of the sea." He finds the objections of the whale- loving IWC member states to be largely "unscientific." Right from the beginning, Japan strove to convince its political opponents to drop their devotion to whale singing. But in order to achieve this, it had to gain a majority in the IWC. The Japanese succeeded -- thanks to checkbook diplomacy. Japan systematically handed out million-dollar donations to tiny island nations like St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda. At IWC conferences, these allied nations are only too happy to support their generous donors. "Before they make their appearance at the conference, they have no qualms about picking up their talking points from the Japanese delegation," says Greenpeace activist Maack. In particular, the 88 members will be wrangling this week over a clause that Maquieira and Liverpool have placed in parentheses as a precautionary measure. In the international language of conference diplomacy, this means that it's optional. It's a key clause -- it upholds the ban on the commercial sale of whale products. If it stays, then the planned relatively low level of whale hunting could remain in place over the next 10 years. If it is removed, environmental organizations fear that the IWC/62/7 paper will again swing open the gates for commercial slaughter at sea. "How are we supposed to pick up the pieces in 10 years?" asks Maack. This would spell the end of the moratorium passed in 1986 -- with all its loopholes. "This clause must remain," demands the German negotiator Schmidt. "It's a 'no-go' for us and for the EU." Little Demand for It is primarily the Icelanders who are calling for permission to trade in whale products. But who do they intend to sell the meat to? There is hardly any demand for the marine mammal steaks -- not even in Japan. The Japanese already have 4,000 tons of the stuff -- leftovers from their alleged scientific expeditions. In reality, they would rather eat tuna sashimi, tempura and miso soup. "Well I, uh," says Komatsu, who is by now a professor at a Tokyo cadre training school for career bureaucrats, "I'm not such a big fan of eating whale meat, either." "We don't need any whale meat," says Atsushi Ishii, an environmental policy expert at Tohoku University in Sendai who has conducted a study of Japan's whaling policies. Ishii calculates that already over 30 years ago only 1.7 percent of the daily dietary intake of protein was met with animal protein from whale meat. Today, the average Japanese person eats only 30 grams (1 oz.) of whale meat annually. Nonetheless, Ishii is convinced that Japan will stubbornly defend its "scientific" whaling: "Over the years, the bureaucrats in the fisheries agency have created a perfect system that allows for a secure and decent living." If Ishii's analysis is correct, then thousands of cetaceans have died only to feed a ruling caste of bureaucrats -- not with whale meat, but with subsidies that have financed scientific whaling for over 20 years. The amount of money involved is around $30 million (€24 million), according to Ishii, "roughly half of which is paid by tax payers." If private companies were to take over these whaling operations, this sum would evaporate -- along with the golden parachutes of the civil servants at the fisheries agency, which are now enjoyed by at least five of the ICR's directors to date. One of the men receives over $130,000 a year. Meanwhile, the Japanese government can score points at home by fighting back against the Australians and the Americans with plenty of proud patriotism. In their view, these are cultural imperialists who are trying to dictate to the Japanese people what they should -- and shouldn't -- eat. Oddly enough, the deeply anchored devotion of the Japanese to the protein-rich catch from the sea is merely a myth , says Ishii. It was created in the 1970s by a PR company acting on behalf of the whaling lobby. "In reality, there are only four communities in Japan where whaling still plays a role." The "system," as Ishii calls it, wasn't exposed for years primarily because journalists are symbiotically bound to the agencies -- via Kisha-Kurabu, or "reporters' clubs". Every ministry and every administration has a press club where the reporters are fed with information -- and effectively kept from conducting research. Whales are Intelligent

Whales are intelligent and have intrinsic value Department of Conservation, 99- New Zealand government conservation group (“Conservation of whales in the 21st century—the intrinsic value of whales,” http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/native-animals/marine-mammals/conservation- of-whales-in-the-21st-century/whales/the-intrinsic-value-of-whales/)//vivienne Aside from the value that we attach to a particular species, it is also valuable in itself. International law accepts that all biodiversity has an intrinsic value . Being large marine mammals, whales occupy a special place in marine ecosystems. Many species of whales have unique characteristics. Many species are now but remnants of a time when whales were plentiful. At the beginning of the 20th century, baleen whales were the major vertebrate group in the Southern Ocean in biomass terms, but hunting during the last century, when over two million large whales were slaughtered, probably reduced their biomass to one-tenth or less. There has been a major international debate on for the last 30 years. Ensuring their protection is one way of showing that humans are capable of protecting biodiversity for the benefit of future generations and of using it in a non-consumptive way. Whales and their behaviour There is much still to be learned about whales and their behaviour. According to new research, many whale and dolphin species exhibit complex social patterns , including: Family life A calf may stay with its mother for 10 years or more, or throughout its whole life in the case of some dolphin species. Adult sperm whales will stagger their dives so that one adult is always looking after the calves. Adults will help each other defend their calves against predators. Cultural behaviour Sperm whales, humpbacks and orca have regional song dialects. Specific pods of orca have specific migration patterns. Female orca teach their young how to beach themselves to catch sealion pups and how to get off the beach again without becoming stranded. Memory Male humpbacks sing one of the animal kingdom’s longest and most complex songs during the breeding season, and the songs continually change in structure. After a break of several months at the end of the season, they take up where they left off on their return to the breeding grounds, and continue. Over time they modify their individual songs without ever reverting to a previous song pattern. Annual changes in the song of humpback whales in Tonga mirror the changes of song in eastern Australia, but with a year’s time delay - another example of cultural transmission. Language Orcas and dolphins are able to communicate their individual identity to other members of their pod. Specific categories of sperm whale clicks establish recognition by the members of a pod. Southern right whales emit specific calls to establish contact with other whale groups. In 1986 a scientist taught bottlenose dolphins a simple sign language and a computer-generated sound language with a subject- verb-object sentence structure.

Whales have similar self-awareness and intellectual capability to that of apes and humans – hunting them is immoral Keim, 09 – Science Blogger for Wired Magazine (Brandon, “Whales Might Be as Much Like People as Apes Are”, June 25th, Wired Magazine, http://www.wired.com/2009/06/whalepeople/)//vivienne As the annual International Whaling Commission meeting stumbles to a close, unable to negotiate a compromise between whaling opponents and people who’ve killed more than 40,000 whales since 1985, scientists say these aquatic mammals are more than mere animals. They might even deserve to be considered people. Not human people, but as occupying a similar range on the spectrum as the great apes, for whom the idea of personhood has moved from preposterous to possible. Chimpanzees, gorillas and bonobos possess self-awareness, feelings and high-level cognitive powers. According to a steadily gathering body of research, so do whales and dolphins. In fact, their capacities could be even more ancient than our own, dating to an evolutionary explosion in brain size that took place millions of years before the last common ancestor of the great apes existed. “If an alien came down anytime prior to about 1.5 million years ago to communicate with the ‘brainiest’ animals on Earth, they would have tripped over our own ancestors and headed straight for the oceans to converse with the dolphins,” said Lori Marino, an evolutionary neurobiologist at the Yerkes National Primate Research Center. The idea of whale personhood makes all the more haunting the prospect that Earth’s cetaceans, many of whom were hunted to the brink of extinction in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, are still threatened. At the annual International Whaling Commission being held this week in Portugal, officials failed to curb the continuing killing of some 1,000 whales every year, mostly by hunters from Japan, Norway and Iceland. Many scientists say populations are still too fragile to support commercial hunting or, in the case of Japan, “scientific research” that appears to kill an especially high number of pregnant females. Whales have brains as or more complex than those of humans and higher levels of social communication Warren, 4/14 – Award-winning journalist for work on whales (Jeff, March edition, Psychology Tomorrow, “The Case for Animal Personhood”, http://www.psychologytomorrowmagazine.com/case-animal-personhood/)//vivienne But the most game-changing research may be the reappraisal of the whale brain currently underway. Lori Marino has spent 20 years studying the cetacean brain’s structure and evolution, and found that it is not only large (second only to a human’s in its brain-to-body ratio) but also contains many braided cell structures and areas of dense connectivity. Whale brains are also highly “convoluted”—the cortex folds in on itself to increase its surface area inside the skull thus giving the brain its ridged appearance (the brains of less intelligent animals are much smoother). What’s more, the history of the whale brain has been very different from those of primates and other mammals. It represents what Marino calls “an alternative evolutionary route to complex intelligence.” The most intriguing part of the whale brain for Marino is the limbic system, which, in mammals, handles the processing of emotions. In some respects, she found this part of the whale brain is actually more convoluted than our own. In fact it is so large it erupts into the cortex in the form of an extra “paralimbic” lobe. The location of the paralimbic lobe suggests it is involved in a unique integration between emotional and cognitive thinking, perhaps some combination of social communication and self-awareness that we do not currently understand (we’re not smart enough – not in that way). “Whales are arguably the most socially connected, communicative and coordinated mammals on the planet, including humans,” says Marino. “Killer whales, for instance, do not kill or even seriously harm each other in the wild, despite the fact that there is competition for prey and mates and there are disagreements. Their social rules prohibit real violence, and they Uniqueness – Whale Populations Dying Now

Whales are dying now – low reproduction rates, warming, and no food Moseman, 08 – Staff writer and reporter for Discover: Science for the Curious (Andrew, “After 4,500 Whale Killings, Japanese Publish Their Research,” Discover, August 26, http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/discoblog/2008/08/26/after-4500-whale-killings-japanese- publish-their-research/)//vivienne The scientists measured the amount of blubber in minke whales captured since the 1980s and found that the level has dropped off precipitously since then. Why are they pointing the finger at global warming? Because krill, the tiny crustacean at the base of the food chain, have declined in Antarctic areas by 80 percent since the 1970s. Part of the problem is warming waters, but over-fishing for krill to use at fish farms and the ozone layer hole have contributed to the drop as well. Intuitively, one might think that eating less and losing a little fat might make it easier for whales to survive in a warming world. But not so, the scientists say—the whales’ 9 percent loss of blubber has outpaced any rise in ocean temperature. And with less protection for the cold waters of the Antarctic, researchers say, the whales could have more trouble reproducing. Biodiversity Scenario

Whale pump is key to biodiversity Roman and McCarthy ’10 (Joe and James, peer-reviewed article, PLOS One, 10-11-10, “The Whale Pump: Marine Mammals Enhance Primary Productivity in a Coastal Basin,” http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0013255) //ER Ecosystem Effects We propose that marine mammals play an important role in the delivery of recycled nitrogen to surface waters (Table 1). Over the course of a year, marine mammals release approximately 2.3×104 metric tons (1.7×109 mol N) per year to the surface of the Gulf of Maine, more than all rivers combined and approximately the same as current coastal point sources (Figure 3a, Table 2, [20]). Although atmospheric deposition delivers more nitrogen to the Gulf than rivers or marine mammals, it is important to note that the atmospheric source is currently much higher than the estimated preindustrial levels (Figure 3b) [21]. The release of nutrients at the ocean surface is a pattern common to many air-breathing vertebrates, however, in the Gulf of Maine, and presumably in many other systems, it is dominated by whales, especially baleen whales. Currently cetaceans deliver approximately 77% of the nutrients released to the gulf by mammals and birds (Table 2); their biomass in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans indicate that they also play a dominant role in these systems [22], [23]. For some marine ecosystems it may be appropriate to expand this term beyond one that emphasizes whales to acknowledge greater importance of or seabirds. In the gulf, the whale pump will be most active in spring and summer, when feeding whales are present and when nitrate levels are low (Figure 4). Concentrations are ~8 µmol kg−1 in winter but approach undetectable levels in summer [18]. Kenney et al. have estimated that 30% of the annual prey consumed by cetaceans in the Gulf of Maine occurs in spring and 48% in summer [24]. Surface excretion may extend seasonal plankton productivity during these seasons, after a thermocline has formed. The effects of the pump are also expected to be much greater in highly productive areas such as Stellwagen and Georges Banks and the Bay of Fundy, where diving and surfacing transcends warm-season stratification and can markedly increase surface nitrogen levels. The whale pump provides a positive plankton nutrition feedback. On Stellwagen Bank, humpback whales bottom feed on sand lance (Ammodytes spp), especially at night when these forage fish burrow into the sandy substrate [25]. In the Grand Manan Basin, right whales feed beneath the thermocline, on concentrated bands of diapausing copepods, in direct proportion to the abundance and quality of food available [14], [26]. The density of copepods in this layer is orders of magnitude greater than average estimates of water-column prey density [27]. The average dive depth (113–130 m) for right whales is strongly correlated with peak prey abundance (fifth copepodites of Calanus finmarchicus) and the thermocline [14]. foraging dives often exceed 100 m to locate dense concentrations of euphausiids [13]. Not all feeding occurs along or below the pycnocline. Right whales surface feed on copepods in Cape Cod Bay and the Great South Channel in the spring [28]. On Stellwagen, humpbacks tend to surface feed during daylight hours, when their prey is most abundant in the upper portion of the water column [25]. Several species have diel patterns in foraging behavior: sei whales feed on aggregations of C. finmarchicus when they migrate to the surface at night, reducing transit time for the whales and maximizing foraging efficiency [29]. Although the upward movement of nutrients is essential to our conception of the whale pump, the feeding of marine mammals at the surface, especially on prey that migrate across the pycnocline themselves, and the subsequent excretion of nutrients at the surface are important parts of the overall pattern of the pump. Because of their large size and the high energetic cost of foraging, baleen whales require dense patches of food [13]. Production of phytoplankton stocks that support copepods, euphasiids, and fish consumed by whales will benefit most immediately from the release of nitrogenous excreta in nutrient-limited waters during stratified summer conditions. The whale pump could also reinforce the aggregative behavior and cooperative foraging of some cetaceans. The predictability of finding food in regions of high productivity is critical to individual survival and reproductive success: many species return to the same locations year after year, using the same feeding grounds across generations [30], [31]. Another possible concentration-enhancing mechanism of the whale pump is the attraction of zooplankton to fecal material. The initial observation that led Hamner and Hamner to study the use of scent trails by zooplankton was an aggregation of copepods on the regurgitated meal of a seasick dive-boat tender [32]. At least one of the fecal plumes we collected—suspended just below the surface, about the size of our inflatable sampling boat, and the color of oversteeped green tea—had high numbers of copepods. Consumption of the fine particulate fraction in the fecal plume by zooplankton would provide further nutrition for the lower trophic levels that nourish these mammals. Any attempt to study the role of marine mammals in coastal ecosystems must consider that many species now occur only in remnant populations, drastically reduced by commercial exploitation, incidental mortality, and habitat destruction (Figure 3b). Three species of mammals (sea mink, Atlantic walrus, and possibly Atlantic gray whale) are now extinct or absent in the Gulf of Maine, along with several marine birds, including the great auk. In the Bay of Fundy, humans have reduced the biomass of the upper trophic level of vertebrates by at least an order of magnitude [33]. One unanticipated consequence of this depletion of deep-diving mammals is a likely decline in the carrying capacity for higher trophic levels in coastal ecosystems. Looking beyond the Gulf of Maine, it is important to consider the roles of present and past stocks of large air-breathing predators in the of marine ecosystems. In the North Pacific, whale populations consume approximately 26% of the average daily net primary productivity; pre-exploitation populations may have required more than twice this sum [34]. Might primary productivity have been higher in the past as a result of a stronger whale pump? One recent study provides evidence that phytoplankton abundance has declined in 8 of 10 oceanic regions over the past century, and the authors suggest that this can be explained by ocean warming over this period [35]. Yet declines in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean regions, areas with especially high harvests of whale and seal populations over the past century, are in excess of the mean global rate. Full recovery from one serious anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems, namely the dramatic depletion of whale populations, can help to counter the impacts of another now underway—the decline in nutrients for phytoplankton growth caused by ocean warming. The whale pump may have even played a role in helping to support a greater number of apex consumers. In the Southern Hemisphere, Willis has noted that a decrease in krill abundance followed the near elimination of large whales [36]. He hypothesized that one factor in this counterintuitive decline is a shift in krill behavior. Another factor could be the diminished whale pump, which would have affected productivity by reducing the recycling of nutrients to near-surface waters: Smetacek and Nicol et al. have shown that whales recycle iron in surface waters of the Southern Ocean [23], [37]. The fertilization events of the whale pump can apply to nitrogen, iron, or other limiting nutrients. These findings have important implications for the management of ocean resources. As marine mammal populations recover, it has been suggested that whales and other predators should be culled to limit competition with human fishing efforts, an idea that has been championed to challenge international restrictions on whaling [38]. Yet no data have been forthcoming to support the logic of this assertion. Furthermore, recent studies suggest that marine mammals have a negligible effect on fisheries in the North Atlantic [39], [40]; simulated reductions in large whale abundance in the Caribbean did not produce any appreciable increase in biomass of commercially important fish species [41]. On the contrary, marine mammals provide important ecosystem services. On a global scale, they can influence climate, through fertilization events and the export of carbon from surface waters to the deep sea through sinking whale carcasses [42]. In coastal areas, whales retain nutrients locally, increasing ecosystem productivity and perhaps raising the carrying capacity for other marine consumers, including commercial fish species. An unintended effect of bounty programs and culls could be reduced availability of nitrogen in the euphotic zone and decreased overall productivity. Caribbean Economy Scenario

Whaling kills the Caribbean economy – whale watching is a key internal link Sanders ’10 - is currently a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London in the UK. He is an International Consultant, Writer and former senior Caribbean Ambassador (Sir Ronald, “Caribbean Credibility at stake in IWC Vote”, 6/5/10, Sir Ronald Sanders Website, http://www.sirronaldsanders.com/viewarticle.aspx?ID=176) //CW Since 1992, all the Caribbean members of the IWC have consistently voted in favour of repealing the moratorium until 2008 when Dominica’s Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerritt declared that his government would no longer be doing so. In 2009, he repeated that his government “will not renege on that commitment of staying clear of voting for whaling”. However, Suriname and the other OECS members of the IWC - St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Grenada, Antigua and Barbuda, and St. Kitts and Nevis – have continued to vote with Japan, the most aggressive of the three remaining countries that favour commercial whaling. All eyes are on the Dominica government to see whether it sticks to its commitment despite the facts that Japanese officials have been active in OECS countries in the past few weeks. This renewed Japanese activity has caused Caribbean business people and Caribbean environmentalists to argue publicly that it is not in the interest of the OECS countries to continue to support Japan’s whaling position. Caribwhale, an organization of Caribbean tourism business people and their employees, has recently urged the governments of Suriname and the OECS not to vote for a resumption of commercial whaling since the region has a thriving whale watching industry as part of its tourism product. “Dead whales”, they said, “are no good to the Caribbean; live ones bring revenues and employment from the whale watching industry”. This call was followed by an appeal by the Eastern Caribbean Coalition for Environmental Awareness (ECCEA), a grouping of Caribbean environmentalists, who wrote to the OECS representatives to the IWC and their heads of government, saying: “Commercial and ‘scientific’ whaling do not serve a Caribbean purpose”. Suriname and the members of the OECS owe Japan nothing particularly as the balance of trade between them is entirely in Japan’s favour year after year. Japan’s aid for Fisheries Complexes is far less than the millions of dollars spent every year by the Caribbean countries on imports of Japanese motor vehicles, computers, printers, cameras, outboard motors, and agricultural equipment. What’s more Japan has shown little concern for the Caribbean, repeatedly ignoring protests from Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Heads of Government over the shipment of Japanese nuclear waste through the Caribbean Sea. One accident, however, small would destroy the fragile ecology of the Caribbean Sea and destroy Caribbean economies. As far as the whale watching industry in the OECS countries is concerned, Dominica, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenada are already earning millions of dollars from it. The potential exists for an equally thriving business in St Kitts-Nevis and Antigua and Barbuda. But if Suriname and members of the OECS support any form of commercial whaling at the upcoming IWC meeting, they will this possibility.

Caribbean economic growth key to prevent narcoterror – results in WMD use Ward, 10 – Adjunct Professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University (Curtis A., “Regional Threats: Security Capacity Imperatives in the Caribbean,” National Defense University Press, is. 58, 3rd quarter 2010, http://www.ndu.edu/press/regional-threats.html) //CW The countries of the English-speaking Caribbean, despite their fragile economies, begin with clear advantages over most countries in other regions and subregions, including Central and South America. The Englishspeaking Caribbean countries have strong democratic underpinnings, adhere to the rule of law, and have in place well-defined, though significantly underresourced, institutional mechanisms.5 These distinctions provide a platform for institutional and operational capacity-building and security enhancement. The security problems, while varied from country to country, have some common threads. These include substantial gaps in border management and control capacities— in particular, customs administration and control, port facilities security, and maritime border control. There is significant lack of capacity to prevent contraband from entering the international supply chain and the domestic environment. This capacity gap considerably increases the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their precursors entering the international supply chain from or transiting marginally secured port facilities destined for the United States. The wide gaps in the capacities of the island states to patrol and secure their territorial sea and coastlines increase the likelihood of terrorists and international criminals gaining access to U.S. commercial shipping and cruise ship assets. The Caribbean region's vulnerability has been exacerbated by the severe economic hardships they have experienced as a result of the recent global recession . The devastating January 2010 earthquake in Haiti has added new challenges that must be factored into the region's security dilemma. However, even before this tragic event, with considerably reduced available resources, an overwhelming majority of the countries in the region could not afford the high cost of security-related technology, of desperately needed security infrastructure development, and of training, equipping, and maintaining security personnel, and there is no prospect that these countries will be able to afford them any time in the near future. For Caribbean states, the nexus between security and development is obvious. Economic development of the region depends on the security architecture of the region, and security depends on each country's level of development and ability to afford it. Which comes first?

Caribbean economy is key to prevent drug trafficking, financial crime and illegal immigration Sullivan, 05 – CRS Specialist in Latin American Affairs (“Caribbean Region: Issues in U.S. Relations,” CRS, 5/25/05, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32160.pdf) //CW U.S. interests in the Caribbean are diverse, and include economic, political, and security concerns. The Bush Administration describes the Caribbean as America’s “third border,” with events in the region having a direct impact on the homeland security of the United States. According to the Administration, the United States has an interest in bolstering political and economic stability in the region because instability would heighten the region’s vulnerability to drug trafficking, financial crimes, and illegal immigration. The U.S.-Caribbean relationship is characterized by extensive economic linkages, cooperation on counter-narcotics efforts and security, and a sizeable U.S. foreign assistance program. U.S. aid supports a variety of projects to strengthen democracy, promote economic growth and development, alleviate poverty, and combat the AIDS epidemic in the region. Despite close U.S. relations with most Caribbean nations, there has been tension at times on such issues as the lack of widespread Caribbean support for U.S. military operations in Iraq and policy differences regarding Cuba. Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations also expressed concern about the circumstances regarding the departure of President Jean Bertrand Aristide from Haiti in February 2004. In the aftermath of several devastating storms in 2004 (Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan, and Tropical Storm Jeanne), the United States is providing humanitarian assistance to the afflicted countries, including Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. Congress approved $100 million in emergency supplemental funding for the region in the aftermath of the storms (P.L. 108-324). This report deals with broader issues in U.S. relations with the Caribbean and does not include an extensive discussion of Haiti and Cuba. U.S. policy toward these Caribbean nations is covered in two CRS products: CRS Report RL32294, Haiti: Developments and U.S. Policy Since 1991 and Current Congressional Concerns, and CRS Report RL32730, Cuba: Issues for the 109th Congress.

Caribbean stability key to US oil access Edghill, 12 - B.A. in History from the University of North Texas and teaches courses about the Caribbean and U.S. Government in Fort Worth, Texas (Michael, “Why the Caribbean Matters,” Caribbean Journal, 2/2/12, http://www.caribjournal.com/2012/02/02/op- ed-why-the-caribbean-matters/) //CW Unfortunately, this is due to the fact that most people do not recognize that the Caribbean is a gateway for two of the highest-priority security issues in the United States: drug trafficking and energy dependence. While the doomsday scenario of nuclear war in the Middle East is highly provocative, security in the Caribbean may have a greater effect on the everyday lives of Americans. The Keystone Pipeline Project received so much attention, not solely because of the potential for job creation with the project, but because of its potential to provide another reliable source of foreign energy. Any security threat in the Caribbean could pose a grave threat to currently reliable sources of foreign energy. Both Venezuela and Colombia were among the 10 largest suppliers of oil imports to the US in 2010 . Even the island-nation of Trinidad and Tobago provided more oil to the United States in 2010 than did Libya. Trinidad & Tobago also provides more natural gas to the US than any other nation except Canada. Perhaps an even more jarring statistic to drive home this point is that about 64 percent of all energy imports pass through the Caribbean Sea before they reach American refineries on the Gulf Coast. With the expansion of the Panama Canal, it is quite possible that the security of the Caribbean region could become even more important in the years to come. It causes extinction Lendman 07 - Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization. [Stephen Lendman, “Resource Wars - Can We Survive Them?,” rense.com, 6-6-7, pg. http://www.rense.com/general76/resrouce.htm]

With the world's energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and "peak oil" near or approaching, "security" for America means assuring a sustainable supply of what we can't do without . It includes waging wars to get it, protect it, and defend the maritime trade routes over which it travels. That means energy's partnered with predatory New World Order globalization, militarism, wars, ecological recklessness, and now an extremist US administration willing to risk Armageddon for world dominance. Central to its plan is first controlling essential resources everywhere, at any cost, starting with oil and where most of it is located in the Middle East and Central Asia. The New "Great Game" and Perils From It The new "Great Game's" begun, but this time the stakes are greater than ever as explained above. The old one lasted nearly 100 years pitting the British empire against Tsarist Russia when the issue wasn't oil. This time, it's the US with help from Israel, Britain , the West, and satellite states like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan challenging Russia and China with today's weapons and technology on both sides making earlier ones look like toys. At stake is more than oil. It's planet earth with survival of all life on it issue number one twice over. Resources and wars for them means militarism is increasing, peace declining, and the planet's ability to sustain life front and center, if anyone's paying attention. They'd better be because beyond the point of no return, there's no second chance the way Einstein explained after the atom was split. His famous quote on future wars was : "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Under a worst case scenario, it's more dire than that. There may be nothing left but resilient beetles and bacteria in the wake of a nuclear holocaust meaning even a new stone age is way in the future, if at all. The threat is real and once nearly happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October, 1962. We later learned a miracle saved us at the 40th anniversary October, 2002 summit meeting in Havana attended by the US and Russia along with host country Cuba. For the first time, we were told how close we came to nuclear Armageddon. Devastation was avoided only because Soviet submarine captain Vasily Arkhipov countermanded his order to fire nuclear-tipped torpedos when Russian submarines were attacked by US destroyers near Kennedy's "quarantine" line. Had he done it, only our imagination can speculate what might have followed and whether planet earth, or at least a big part of it, would have survived. Ethics Scenario – Whale Feelings

Whaling is unethical – whales have feelings too Singer, 08 – Reporter for Policy Innovations and Project Syndicate (Peter, “Hypocrisy on the High Seas?” A Publication of the Carnegie Council, http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/commentary/data/000035/:pf_printable)//vivienne Thirty years ago, Australian vessels, with the government's blessing, killed sperm whales off the West Australian coast. Last month, Australia led international protests against Japan's plan to kill 50 humpback whales. Japan, under mounting pressure, announced that it would suspend the plan for a year or two. The change in public opinion about whaling has been dramatic, and not only in Australia. Greenpeace began the protests against Australian whaling, and the government appointed Sydney Frost, a retired judge, to head an inquiry into the practice. As a concerned Australian and a philosophy professor working on the ethics of our treatment of animals, I made a submission. I did not argue that whaling should stop because whales are endangered. I knew that many expert ecologists and marine biologists would make that claim. Instead, I argued that whales are social mammals with big brains, capable of enjoying life and of feeling pain—and not only physical pain, but very likely also distress at the loss of one of their group. Whales cannot be humanely killed—they are too large, and even with an explosive harpoon, it is difficult to hit the whale in the right spot. Moreover, whalers do not want to use a large amount of explosive, because that would blow the whale to pieces, while the whole point is to recover valuable oil or flesh. So harpooned whales typically die slowly and painfully. Causing suffering to innocent beings without an extremely weighty reason for doing so is wrong. If there were some life-or-death need that humans could meet only by killing whales, perhaps the ethical case against it could be countered. But there is no essential human need that requires us to kill whales. Everything we get from whales can be obtained without cruelty elsewhere. Thus, whaling is unethical. Frost agreed. He said that there could be no doubt that the methods used to kill whales were inhumane—he even described them as "most horrible." He also mentioned "the real possibility that we are dealing with a creature which has a remarkably developed brain and a high degree of intelligence." Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser's conservative government accepted his recommendation that whaling be stopped, and Australia soon became an anti-whaling nation. While Japan has suspended its plan to kill humpback whales, its Japanese whaling fleet will still kill about 1,000 other whales, mostly smaller minke whales. Japan justifies its whaling as "research," because the International Whaling Commission's rules allow member nations to kill whales for such purposes. But the research seems to be aimed at building a scientific case for a resumption of commercial whaling; so, if whaling is unethical, then the research itself is both unnecessary and unethical. Japan says that it wants the discussion of whaling to be carried out calmly, on the basis of scientific evidence, without "emotion." The Japanese think that humpback whale numbers have increased sufficiently for the killing of 50 to pose no danger to the species. On this narrow point, they might be right. But no amount of science can tell us whether or not to kill whales. Indeed, Japan's desire to continue to kill whales is no less motivated by "emotion" than environmentalists' opposition to it. Eating whales is not necessary for the health or better nutrition of the Japanese. It is a tradition that they wish to continue, presumably because some Japanese are emotionally attached to it. The Japanese do have one argument that is not so easily dismissed. They claim that Western countries object to whaling because, for them, whales are a special kind of animal, as cows are for Hindus. Western nations, the Japanese say, should not try to impose their cultural beliefs on them. The best response to this argument is that the wrongness of causing needless suffering to sentient beings is not culturally specific. It is, for example, one of the first precepts of one of Japan's major ethical traditions, Buddhism. But Western nations are in a weak position to make this response, because they inflict so much unnecessary suffering on animals. The Australian government strongly opposes whaling, yet it permits the killing of millions of kangaroos each year—a slaughter that involves a great deal of animal suffering. The same can be said of various forms of hunting in other countries, not to mention the vast amount of animal suffering caused by factory farms. Whaling should stop because it brings needless suffering to social, intelligent animals capable of enjoying their own lives. But against the Japanese charge of cultural bias, Western countries will have little defense until they address the needless animal suffering in their own backyards. Whales are people too – we should save them Kutner ’78 (Luis, 1978, The Genocide of Whales: A Crime Against Humanity, HeinOnline)//ER Whales, which spend their entire lives roaming over the oceans of our planet, are true world citizens. They pass through man’s carefully defined boundaries without hesitation. National fishing or economic zones and territorial claims are not, in reality, painted on the seas and do not interrupt their instinctual travels. Although the migratory patterns of individual species vary, whales generally feed in the worlds rich cold waters during the summer months, then breed in the warmer waters in the winter.’ For example, every winter the gray whale migrates approximately 5,000 miles from Arctic feeding waters down the Pacific Coast to the calving and mating sanctuaries in the lagoons of lower California.2 A complete seasonal trip for these world travelers is about 10,000 miles. This great urge to travel is but one of many qualities that whales share with humanity. Like man, the whale is a social creature. It lives and travels in family groups, “pods,’ and, displays other social instincts which are similar to “human” feelings and indicates a caring for others of its species.3 Whales also are susceptible to many dis eases common to mankind including mental psychosis.4 Because of their highly migratory life pattern whales are not controllable by any one country. Whales are known in all seas and should be considered inhabitants of this world deserving of protection rather than exploitation to the point of extinction. The old arguments of res nullis and res communi3 as noted in the Grotius-Selden debate5 may be raised, but modern times have revamped the views of a single country’s ownership of natural resources,6 The whale should be viewed as a world inhabitant not freely subject to the whim of those who have the present technological means to exploit them. The is a story of slaughter. Since its inception the modern whaling industry has employed a “boom-bust” technique. One species is exploited until it is commercially extinct then another species is chosen for ‘harvest.” 1ost species are down in population and age composition with true assessment of the present condition of the whales made difficult by the lack of good scientific data. While scientists struggle for more information on the whales, the slaughter continues.7

The intrinsic value of whales outweighs their commercial value Orth, 98 – Thomas Jones Professor, Fish & Wildlife Conservation, Ph.D.- Oklahoma State University, M.S. - Oklahoma State University, B.S. - Eastern Illinois University (Donald J., “Marine Mammal Protection and Management,” http://fishwild.vt.edu/orth/pfwm/marinemammals.pdf)//vivienne The case against whaling – Although historically the case against whaling has centered on the ethics of contributing to the extinction of whales, the rebound in whale populations has forced whale protectionists to develop an alternative position. Whales have intrinsic values apart from their human uses. This value can only be protected by recognizing cetacean rights and preventing inhumane treatment and killing. The intrinsic values far exceed the economic value of whale products. Whales are unique in their intelligence level, playfulness, and grace. As sentient beings it is morally wrong for humans to unnecessarily cause them pain and suffering. Furthermore, there are alternatives for most products derived from whales and it is not necessary to kill whales to fulfill essential human needs. Other non-consumptive uses of whales are more acceptable to our society and contribute to economies. For example, in 1991 over 4 million people spent over $300 million on whale watching activities.

Whales are people too – they have the same mental capabilities and complex social structures as humans and should be granted the same moral rights The Economist, 12 – Magazine covering world politics, economics, business and finance, and scientific and technological developments (February 25th, “Whales are people, too”, http://www.economist.com/node/21548150)//vivienne The proposition that whales have rights is founded on the idea that they have a high degree of intelligence, and also have self-awareness of the sort that humans do. That is a controversial suggestion, but there is evidence to support it. Lori Marino of Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia, reviewed this evidence. One pertinent observation is that dolphins, whales and their kind have brains as anatomically complex as those of humans, and that these brains contain a particular type of nerve cell, known as a spindle cell, that in humans is associated with higher cognitive functions such as abstract reasoning. Cetacean brains are also, scaled appropriately for body size, almost as big as those of humans and significantly bigger than those of great apes, which are usually thought of as humanity's closest intellectual cousins. Whales and dolphins have complex cultures, too, which vary from group to group within a species. The way they hunt, the repertoire of vocal signals and even their use of tools differs from pod to pod. They also seem to have an awareness of themselves as individuals. At least some can, for example, recognise themselves in a mirror—a trick that humans, great apes and elephants can manage, but most other species cannot. Thomas White, of Loyola Marymount University, in Los Angeles, then discussed the ethical implications of what Dr Marino had said. Dr White is a philosopher, and he sought to establish the idea that a person need not be human. In philosophy, he told the meeting, a person is a being with special characteristics who deserves special treatment as a result of those characteristics. In principle, other species can qualify. For the reasons outlined by Dr Marino, he claimed, cetaceans do indeed count as persons and therefore have moral rights—though ones appropriate to their species, which may therefore differ from those that would be accorded a human (for example, the right not to be removed from their natural environment).

Whales have been recognized by the scientific community as “persons” – treating them as disposable property is morally wrong White, 12 – Fellow of the Oxford Centre for Animal Ethics and holds the Hilton Chair in Business Ethics at Loyola Marymount University (Thomas, , January 16th, ABC Environment, “Whales are people too”, http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2012/01/16/3406990.htm)//vivienne There is now ample scientific evidence that capacities once thought to be unique to humans are shared by these beings. Like humans, whales and dolphins are 'persons'. That is, they are self-aware beings with individual personalities and a rich inner life. They have the ability to think abstractly, feel deeply and choose their actions. Their lives are characterized by close, long-term relationships with conspecifics in communities characterized by culture. In short, whales and dolphins are a who, not a what. However, as the saying goes, there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that the scientific community is gradually recognising the importance of these ethical issues. For example, more marine mammal scientists are steering away from doing research on captive dolphins. More significantly, a small group of experts who met at the Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies in the spring of 2010 to evaluate the ethical implications of the scientific research on cetaceans concluded that the evidence merited issuing a Declaration of Rights for Cetaceans: Whales and Dolphins. This group included such prominent scientists as Lori Marino and Hal Whitehead. Particularly important in this declaration was the recognition that whales and dolphins are persons who are "beyond use". Treating them as 'property' is indefensible. Environment Scenario

Whales key to solve environmental degradation – nutrient cycling and carbon poo Hoare ’14 - is a writer and cultural historian. He is the author of Leviathan or, The Whale and The Sea Inside. (Philip, “Why whale poo could be the secret to reversing the effects of climate change”, 7/8/14, The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/whale-poo-reverse-climate-change) //CW The first success of the environmental movements of the 1960s was to save the whale. Now, with deep irony, whales may be about to save us with their poo. A new scientific report from the University of Vermont, which gathers together several decades of research, shows that the great whales which nearly became extinct in the 20th century – and are now recovering in number due to the 1983 ban on whaling – may be the enablers of massive carbon sinks via their prodigious production of faeces. Not only do the nutrients in whale poo feed other organisms, from phytoplankton upwards – and thereby absorb the carbon we humans are pumping into the atmosphere – even in death the sinking bodies of these massive animals create new resources on the sea bed, where entire species exist solely to graze on rotting whale. There's an additional and direct benefit for humans, too. Contrary to the suspicions of fishermen that whales take their catch, cetacean recovery could "lead to higher rates of productivity in locations where whales aggregate to feed and give birth". Their fertilizing faeces here, too, would encourage phytoplankton which in turn would encourage healthier fisheries. Such propositions speak to our own species' arrogance. As demonstrated in the fantastical geoengineering projects dreamed up to address climate change, the human race's belief that the world revolves around it knows no bounds. What if whales were nature's ultimate geoengineers? The new report only underlines what has been suspected for some time: that cetaceans, both living and dead, are ecosystems in their own right. But it also raises a hitherto unexplored prospect, that climate change may have been accelerated by the terrible whale culls of the 20th century, which removed hundreds of thousands of these ultimate facilitators of CO2 absorption. As Greg Gatenby, the acclaimed Canadian writer on whales told me in response to the Vermont report, "about 300,000 blue whales were taken in the 20th century. If you average each whale at 100 tons, that makes for the removal from the ocean of approximately 30m tons of biomass. And that's just for one species". <> There's another irony here, too. American whaling, as celebrated in Herman Melville's Moby-Dick (1851), declined in part because of the discovery of mineral oil wells in the second half of the 19th century. One unsustainable resource – the whale oil which lit and lubricated the industrial revolution – was replaced by another . By killing so many whales, then turning to carbon-emitting mineral oil, humans created a double-whammy for climate change. (Conversely, and perhaps perversely, some US commentators have claimed that capitalism saved the whales rather than environmentalists. They contend that our use of mineral oil actually alleviated the pressure on whale populations – proof, they say, that human ingenuity has the ultimate power to solve the planet's problems). The 10 scientists who jointly contributed to the new paper note the benefits of "an ocean repopulated by the great whales". Working on a whalewatching boat off Cape Cod last month, I witnessed astonishing numbers of fin whales, humpbacks and minkes feeding on vast schools of sand eels. I watched dozens of whales at a time, co-operatively hoovering up the bait – and producing plentiful clouds of poo in the process. (Having been at the receiving end of a defecating sperm whale, I can testify to its richly odiferous qualities.) Observers in the Azores have reported similarly remarkable concentrations of cetaceans this summer. And with a 10% increase in humpback calves returning to Australian waters each year, and blue whales being seen in the Irish Sea, a burgeoning global population of cetaceans might not just be good for the whalewatching industry, they may play a significant role in the planet's rearguard action against climate change. It would certainly be a generous return on their part, given what we've inflicted on them. Indeed, as Melville imagined in his prophetic chapter in Moby-Dick, Does the Whale's Magnitude Diminish?, the whale might yet have the last laugh, regaining its reign in a flooded world of the future to "spout his frothed defiance to the skies".

Whales key to the ecosystem Griffin, 7/4 – Reporter for the Science World Report (Catherine, “Recovering Whales Have a Large and Positive Influence on the World's Oceans,” 2014, Science World Report, http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/15835/20140704/recovering-whales-large-positive- influence-worlds-oceans.htm)//vivienne Whales may seem like they're rare and as if they wouldn't have a large impact on the world's ecosystem, but that's entirely incorrect. It turns out that these large mammals have a powerful and positive influence on the function of the world's oceans, global carbon storage and the health of commercial fisheries.¶ Baleen and sperm whales, which are known collectively as the "great whales," include the largest animals to have ever lived on Earth. They have large metabolic demands and eat many fish and invertebrates. They, themselves, are pretty to predators like killer whales and also help distribute nutrients through the water when their bodies drop to the seafloor after they die. ¶ "As humpbacks, grey whales, sperm whales and other cetaceans recover from centuries of overhunting, we are beginning to see that they also play an important role in the ocean," said Joe Roman, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Among their many ecological roles, whales recycle nutrients and enhance primary productivity in areas where they feed."¶ In order to get a better understanding at the role whales play in the ecosystem, the researchers tallied several decades-worth of research on whales from around the world. They found that whales make a positive change in the ocean. Unfortunately, the decline in whale numbers is estimated to be anywhere between 66 and 90 percent. This new study shows the importance of protecting whales in order to help ocean ecosystems. ¶ "The continued recovery of great whales may help to buffer marine ecosystems from destabilizing stresses," the team of scientists write. Roman further went on to say, "As long-lived species, they enhance the predictability and stability of marine ecosystems." ¶ The findings reveal the importance of preserving these species for the future. Not only that, but the observations reveal a bit more about the historical population dynamics of these mammals.

Whales good- creates stable and resilient ecosystems Brown, 7/3 - The new study was written by Joe Roman, University of Vermont; James A Estes and Daniel Costa, University of California, Santa Cruz; Lyne Morissette, M Expertise Marine, Sainte-Luce, Canada; Craig Smith, University of Hawaii, Manoa; James McCarthy, Harvard University; JB Nation, University of Hawaii, Honolulu; Stephen Nicol, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia; Andrew Pershing, University of Maine, Orono, and Gulf of Maine Institute; and Victor Smetacek, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany (Joshua E., “Whales as Ecosystem Engineers,” University of Communications at Vermont, http://www.uvm.edu/~uvmpr/? Page=news&storyID=18797&category=ucommall)//vivienne “The continued recovery of great whales may help to buffer marine ecosystems from destabilizing stresses,” the team of scientists writes. This recovered role may be especially important as climate change threatens ocean ecosystems with rising temperatures and acidification. “As long- lived species, they enhance the predictability and stability of marine ecosystems,” Roman said. ¶ Baleen and sperm whales, known collectively as the “great whales,” include the largest animals to have ever lived on Earth. With huge metabolic demands — and large populations before humans started hunting them — great whales are the ocean’s ecosystem engineers: they eat many fish and invertebrates, are themselves prey to other predators like killer whales, and distribute nutrients through the water. Even their carcasses, dropping to the seafloor, provide habitat for many species that only exist on these "whale falls." Commercial whaling dramatically reduced the biomass and abundance of great whales.¶ “As humpbacks, gray whales, sperm whales and other cetaceans recover from centuries of overhunting, we are beginning to see that they also play an important role in the ocean,” Roman said. “Among their many ecological roles, whales recycle nutrients and enhance primary productivity in areas where they feed." They do this by feeding at depth and releasing fecal plumes near the surface — which supports plankton growth — a remarkable process described as a “whale pump.” Whales also move nutrients thousands of miles from productive feeding areas at high latitudes to calving areas at lower latitudes.¶ Sometimes, commercial fishermen have seen whales as competition. But this new paper summarizes a strong body of evidence that indicates the opposite can be true: whale recovery “could lead to higher rates of productivity in locations where whales aggregate to feed and give birth,” supporting more robust fisheries.¶ As whales recover, there may be increased whale predation on aquaculture stocks and increased competition — real or perceived — with some commercial fisheries. But the new paper notes “ a recent investigation of four coastal ecosystems has demonstrated the potential for large increases in whale abundance without major changes to existing food-web structures or substantial impacts on fishery production.”

Whales are critical to the environment – their feeds entire ecosystems – however whaling kills this cycle Smith, 06 – Department of Oceanography University of Hawaii at Manoa (Craig R., “Bigger is Better: The Role of Whales as Detritus in Marine Ecosystems", http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/oceanography/faculty/csmith/Files/Smith-%20Bigger%20is %20Better.pdf)//vivienne Whale carcasses are end members in the spectrum of marine detritus, constituting the largest, most energy-rich organic particles in the ocean. Most great-whale carcasses sink essentially intact to the deep-sea floor, where they are recycled by a succession of scavenger, enrichment-opportunist, and sulfophilic assemblages. Although the flux of organic carbon in whale falls is small compared to total detrital flux, the massive energy concentrated in a whale fall can support a diverse deep-sea community (~370 species in the northeast Pacific) for decades, including a significant number of potential whale-fall specialists (> 32 species). The ecosystem impacts of detrital whales in epipelagic, shelf, and intertidal ecosystems is poorly known but appears to be small, although some highly mobile intertidal scavengers (e.g., polar bears) could obtain important nutritional inputs from whale carrion. Commercial whaling has drastically reduced the flux of whale

detritus to all marine ecosystems . In intertidal habitats, this may have caused population declines in some scavenging species (e.g., the California condor) dependent on whale carrion. At the deep-sea floor, whaling led to substantial habitat loss to whale-fall communities and likely caused the first anthropogenic extinctions of marine invertebrates in the 1800’s in the North Atlantic. Extinctions of whale-fall specialists are probably

ongoing , and to date are likely to have been most severe in North Atlantic, intermediate in Southern Ocean, and least intense in northeast Pacific whale-fall communities

Whales support entire marine ecosystems, even in death Butman et al ’95 (CHERYL ANN BUTMAN,* JAMES T. CARLTON,t and STEPHEN R. PALUMBI:: *Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, U.S.A. tMaritime Studies Program, Williams College, Mystic Seaport, Mystic, CT 06355 U.S.A. and Department of Biology, Williams College, Williamstown, MA 01267, U.S.A. tKewalo Marine Laboratory, University of Hawaii, 41 Ahui Street, Honolulu, HI 96813, U.S.A., April 1995, “Whaling Effects on Deep-Sea Biodiversity,” Wiley Society for Conservation Biology, JStor)//ER Vast reductions in whale populations due to human hunting may have altered deep-sea biodiversity by re- distributing and ultimately greatly diminishing an im- portant source of organic matter and the stepping stones for chemosynthethic-based communities associ- ated with hydrothermal vents and other regions of high organic input. The recent exciting discovery of Smith and colleagues (Smith et al. 1989; Smith 1992; Bennett et al. 1994), that decaying whale skeletons support a chemosynthetic-based deep-sea community similar to communities in hydrothermal vent and seep areas, indi- cates a greatly expanded role for falling whale bodies in creating and maintaining deep-sea biodiversity. Whaling represents one of the most dramatic alter- ations of mammalian species diversity by humans. It is difficult, however, to evaluate quantitatively the effects of whaling on deep-sea biodiversity because of the lack of historical or even good contemporary data on the size and distributions of most whale populations (Evans 1987) because the affected region is far removed from the disturbance source and because effects are being considered nearly a century after the fact. This marine example, however, does underscore the importance of thinking big and thinking to the long term in evaluating the potential effects of society's activities on nature. Organisms in the deep sea are highly food-limited and rely primarily on organic material falling from above (Grassle 1989). Large animal remains are quickly ex- ploited by mobile local fauna (Dayton & Hessler 1972). These and other sources of concentrated, imported, or- ganic matter-pulses of phytoplankton (Billet et al. 1983), drifting seaweed (Wolff 1979), and wood (Turner 1981 )-enhance the local species richness of sediment-dwelling organisms. This transitory mosaic of ephemeral organic- enriched patches, which may permit niche diversification and thus coexistence of large num- bers of species (Grassle & Sanders 1973), helps explain the extraordinarily high species diversity of the other- wise food-impoverished, relatively homogeneous deep- sea environment (Grassle & Maciolek 1992). Whale carcasses may be important in nourishing deep-sea organisms and in contributing to high species diversity because they are large and sink fast enough through thousands of meters of water containing fish and other planktonic scavengers, with sufficient tissue intact for exploitation once carcasses reach the bottom (Krogh 1934; Bruun 1957). In addition, whale skeletons on the deep-sea floor were recently reported to support an invertebrate community nourished largely by sulfur- reducing endosymbiotic chemoautotropic bacteria (Smith et al. 1989; Smith 1992). In whale skeletons, the very high lipid content-as much as 60% -of their bones is the ultimate source of the reduced compounds fueling the bacteria (Deming et al. 1995). The skeleton- associated fauna are strikingly similar to, and some spe- cies are the same as, those organisms occurring in hy- drothermal vent fields (Smith et al. 1989; Smith 1992; Pettibone 1993; Bennett et al. 1994). Whale skeletons, scattered here and there like islands throughout the deep-ocean basins, may thus facilitate the temporal and spatial dispersal of some organisms obligate to the chemosynthetic-based trophic web asso- ciated with microbial reducing habitats. They could pro- vide critical stepping stones between hydrothermal vent fields-themselves insular and temporary environ- ments-and other organic-enriched regions that sup- port chemoautotrophic life (Bennett et al. 1994). This may be one mechanism whereby hydrothermal vent and seep communities have been maintained through evo- lutionary time (see Martill et al. 1991; Squires et al. 1991). Given the potentially important role of the flesh and skeletons of whales to deep-sea biodiversity, how then might the booming whale industry, prior to serious in- ternational intervention beginning in the mid-1960s (Gambell 1977; Clark & Lamberson 1982), have af- fected deep-sea communities? The effects of whaling on the deep sea probably began a century ago, coincident with the development in the early 1860s of the ad- vanced whale-hunting technology of exploding har- poons and of steam-driven ships (Clark & Lamberson 1982); thus, during a subsequent 40-year period, more whales were killed than in the previous four centuries (Norse 1993). All of the "great whale" populations in the sea have been markedly reduced by human hunting, and several species are considered endangered (Allen 1980; Evans 1987). Over a million whales were killed from 1920 to 1986 (Allen 1980; Evans 1987). The At- lantic gray whale is now extinct (Mead & Mitchell 1984), and the humpback whale suffered a 95% reduc- tion in population numbers (Chittleborough 1965). What happened to all those whale bones? Whaling may have affected whale-carcass supplies to the deep sea in at least two ways. First, up until the turn of the twentieth century, enhanced numbers of cast-off whale carcasses may have been concentrated on the bottom in particular geographic regions. Natural mor- tality likely results in a trickle-down of carcasses to the seafloor in regions where whales spend the most time. Such regions may be species-specific. The largest con- centrations of migratory species-the right, gray, and humpback whales-would be expected in feeding or calving areas and along deep-sea corridors correspond- ing with the animals' natural migration routes. Other species, such as sperm or pilot whales, often concen- trate near specific oceanographic features, such as those associated with undersea topography (Hui 1985) and warm-core rings (Waring et al. 1993). In contrast, whal- ing activity delivered carcasses to the seafloor mostly in regions of favorable hunting. In fact, overhunting has resulted in a major geographic shift in whaling activities. Efforts were once distributed more broadly in the coastal and open oceans but now are largely confined to polar regions (Clark & Lamberson 1982; Tonnenssen & Johnsen 1982). After 1904, the "whaling centre of the world" (Evans 1987: 255) was the Antarctic where blue, fin, and then sei whales were hunted. A second effect of the whaling industry on the deep- sea benthos could have resulted from the profound de- crease in supply of whale carcasses after the early 1900s. At this time, new whale-processing technology permit- ted greater use of whale bone for oil, bone meal, and fertilizer; by the 191 Os few if any whale carcasses were being released (Tonnenssen & Johnsen 1982). In addi- tion, the number of whales was decreasing dramatically from overhunting. In Australian waters alone, catch per unit effort declined 10 to 100 times during the late 1950s to early 1960s (Chittleborough 1965). Through the 1970s even the smallest , the minke, was hunted, and about 7000 were killed (Evans 1987). After the 1986 world-wide moratorium on commercial whaling, about 1600 whales were killed in 1987-1988 and about 500 per year subsequently (Anonymous 1993). Changes in the distribution and ultimately the severe reduction in whale-carcass supplies may have directly affected deep-sea community composition in the world's oceans. This reduction may have even contrib- uted to the delayed discovery of the unique skeleton- associated community until as recently as 1987 (Smith et al. 1989; Smith 1992), given the relatively short time (six-year minimum [Bennett et al. 1994]) that an indi- vidual whale skeleton can support chemoautotrophic life. Perhaps more important, a vastly reduced-and in some regions nonexistent-whale skeleton supply may mean spatial interruption, if not obliteration, of stepping stones between hydrothermal vent fields and other mi- crobial-reducing communities. Dissolution of dispersal corridors between vent fields could alter hydrothermal faunas and, thus, the biodiversity of vent and seep areas. Depending on dispersal distances and survivability in the plankton of larvae of vent- or seep-specific organ- isms, loss of whale skeleton stepping stones in certain geographic regions could lead to the local extinction of hydrothermal-vent field communities. Even though the deep-ocean chemosynthetic biota is only a fraction of abyssal and bathyal diversity, the implications of a vastly decreased whale supply to the bottom are not trivial. Protection of whales from commercial harvest has re- sulted in greatly enhanced population numbers of some threatened species, such as the California gray whale, which was protected in 1935 (Evans 1987). Such pop- ulation recoveries could provide valuable opportunities for exploring the effects of a recovering global whale population on whale carcass supply to the deep sea and associated effects on biodiversity. Recent concern about the effects of human activities on global biodiversity (Wilson 1988, 1992; Norse 1993) has tended to focus on causes of change in biodiversity whose ecological consequences are at least partially known. In the ocean, these activities include fisheries exploitation, physical habitat destruction, eutrophica- tion, release of toxic chemicals, and transport of exotic species. The more subtle, human-mediated change in global ocean biodiversity due to the effects of whaling on deep-sea communities has potential ecological con- sequences that were and are entirely unknown. Such consequences may be complex indeed. Other examples of changes to the marine food web resulting from whal- ing include the greatly increased number of prey items, such as krill in Antarctic waters that the whales no longer harvest (see Laws 1977) and the decline of the Shetland herring fishery in the early 1900s, purportedly due to pollution from whaling (Coull 1994). Other human activities remote to the marine environ- ment, such as the broad-scale removal of coastal forests, may have potentially important effects on marine com- munities. As with whaling, extensive forest removal may have first resulted in an increased and then later in a vastly decreased supply of wood to the coastal and deep-sea floor. Changes to marine life brought about by human activities such as whaling and broad-scale coastal logging may be important because they can potentially affect large regions and entire ecosystems. Fish Stocks Scenario

Their turns are wrong-- whales are uniquely key to preserving fish stocks Gerber et al., 09 – Leah is affiliated with Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Science at the School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe; Lyne is affiliated with the Institut des Sciences de la Mer de Rimouski; Kristin is affiliated with the Institute of Biology I (Zoology), Evolutionary Biology and Ecology Laboratory, Albert-Ludwigs-University; Daniel is affiliated with the Sea Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia(Leah R. Gerber, Lyne Morissette, Kristin Kaschner, Daniel Pauly, "Should Whales Be Culled to Increase Fishery Yield?" February 13, Policy Forum Ecology, Sea Around Us, http://www.seaaroundus.org/magazines/2009/Science_ShouldWhalesBeCulledToIncreaseFishery Yield.pdf)//vivienne Our approach to addressing concerns about scientific uncertainty was to conduct extensive sensitivity analyses to explore the results emerging from a range of assumptions about ecosystem structure and the quality of our input data (table S2). For a wide range of assumptions about whale abundance, feeding rates, and fish biomass, even a complete eradication of baleen whales in these tropical areas does not lead to any appreciable increase in the biomass of commercially exploited fish . In contrast, just small changes in fishing rates lead to considerable increases in fish biomass (see figure, p. 880). We found little overlap between fisheries and whale consumption in terms of prey types, and we also found that fisheries remove far more fish biomass than whales consume (9). Moreover, because some whale prey species compete with commercially targeted fish for plankton and prey occupying a lower trophic level in the food web, it is possible that removing whales from marine ecosystems could result in fewer fish available to the fisheries (9). Today, the majority of fish stocks (33) and many whale populations (34) are seriously depleted, but most available evidence points toward human overexploitation as the root of the problem. When developing tropical countries are encouraged to focus on the notion that “whales eat fish,” they risk being diverted from addressing the real problems that their own fisheries face, primarily, over- exploitation of their marine resources by distant-water fleets (35).

Whales key to fish stocks Shah ’14 (Anup, “Loss of Biodiversity and Extinctions,” Global Issues, 1-19-14, http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/171) //ER Some have argued for whale hunting as a way to sustain other marine populations. National Geographic Wild aired a program called, A Life Among Whales (broadcast June 14, 2008). It noted how a few decades ago, some fishermen campaigned for killing whales because they were apparently threatening the fish supply. A chain of events eventually came full circle and led to a loss of jobs: The massive reduction in the local whale population meant the killer whales in that region (that usually preyed on the younger whales) moved to other animals such as seals As seal numbers declined, the killer whales targeted otters As otter numbers were decimated, the urchins and other targets of otters flourished These decimated the kelp forests where many fish larvae grew in relative protection The exposed fish larvae were easy pickings for a variety of sea life Fishermen’s livelihoods were destroyed. Aquaculture Scenario

Whales increase primary productivity – key to aquaculture University of Vermont ’10 (Science Daily, “Whale poop pumps up ocean health,” 10-12-10, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101012101255.htm) //ER Whale -- should you be forced to consider such matters -- probably conjures images of, well, whale-scale hunks of crud, heavy lumps that sink to the bottom. But most whales actually deposit waste that floats at the surface of the ocean, "very liquidy, a flocculent plume," says University of Vermont whale biologist, Joe Roman. And this liquid fecal matter, rich in nutrients, has a huge positive influence on the productivity of ocean fisheries, Roman and his colleague, James McCarthy from Harvard University, have discovered. Their discovery, published Oct. 11 in the journal PLoS ONE, is what Roman calls a "whale pump." Whales, they found, carry nutrients such as nitrogen from the depths where they feed back to the surface via their feces. This functions as an upward , reversing the assumption of some scientists that whales accelerate the loss of nutrients to the bottom. And this nitrogen input in the Gulf of Maine is "more than the input of all rivers combined," they write, some 23,000 metric tons each year. Nitrogen limits It is well known that microbes, plankton, and fish recycle nutrients in ocean waters, but whales and other marine mammals have largely been ignored in this cycle. Yet this study shows that whales historically played a central role in the productivity of ocean ecosystems -- and continue to do so despite diminished populations. Despite the problems of coastal eutrophication -- like the infamous "dead zones" in the Gulf of Mexico caused by excess nitrogen washing down the Mississippi River -- many places in the ocean of the Northern Hemisphere have a limited nitrogen supply. Including where Roman and McCarthy completed their study: the once fish-rich Gulf of Maine in the western North Atlantic. There, phytoplankton, the base of the food chain, has a brake on its productivity when nitrogen is used up in the otherwise productive summer months. (In other parts of the ocean, other elements are limiting, like iron in some regions of the Southern oceans.) "We think whales form a really important direct influence on the production of plants at the base of this food web," says McCarthy. "We found that whales increase primary productivity," Roman says, allowing more phytoplankton to grow, which then "pushes up the secondary productivity," he says, of the critters that rely on the plankton. The result: "bigger fisheries and higher abundances throughout regions where whales occur in high densities," Roman says. "In areas where whales were once more numerous than they are today, we suggest that they were more productive," say McCarthy. The numbers of whales that swam the oceans before human harvests began is a question of some controversy. "Conservative estimates are that large whales have been cut to 25 percent," says Roman, "though the work done on whale genetics shows that we're probably closer to 10 percent," of historical levels. To cover the range of possibilities, Roman and McCarthy's study considered several scenarios, estimating current whale stocks as 10, 25, or 50 percent of historical levels. Food Security Scenario

Whales key to food security and environmental health Kintisch, 7/3 – covers policy news for Science with an emphasis on climate and energy research, has covered patent policy, science budgets, cabinet officials and the politicization of science (Eli, “Rebounding whale populations are good for ocean ecosystems,” 2014, http://news.sciencemag.org/environment/2014/07/rebounding-whale-populations-are-good-ocean- ecosystems)//vivienne Far from depleting the resources of ocean ecosystems, growing numbers of large whales may be critical to keeping these environments healthy. That’s the conclusion of a new study, which finds that rebounding populations of baleen and sperm whales may be boosting marine food webs around the world. The work is the latest volley in a long-running debate about the ecological role of whales and how their return to the oceans may affect global fisheries that face myriad threats.¶ Scientists have noted the gradual global recovery of various species of large whales. But many disagree about the impact this is having on ocean ecosystems. Some have cast whales as potential competitors to fishing fleets, because they vacuum up tons of invertebrates and small fish that might otherwise be available to commercially valuable species. Under that line of reasoning, some have argued in favor of the continuation of commercial whaling. In the 1970s and 1980s, for example, researchers argued that reducing certain whale populations would aid stocks of krill, a ubiquitous crustacean in the Southern Ocean that is a key food source for baleen whales and other marine species.¶ But the new study notes that krill populations remained constant or even declined after great whales experienced big declines. How so? The authors reason that the whales helped provide nutrients critical to krill and other species low on the food web. For instance, the mammals release massive "fecal plumes" and urine streams that fertilize surface waters with nitrogen and iron, the authors note, and help enhance productivity by mixing up the top layers of the ocean when diving. ¶ Whales also move nutrients horizontally around the ocean. Humpback whales, for example, are a species of baleen whale known for grand migrations from the upper latitudes—like Pacific waters near Alaska—to the subtropics where nutrients are more scarce, near Hawaii and Mexico. Using historic and current population data, the study’s authors calculate thatrebounded populations of whales could increase the productivity of phytoplankton in some subtropical waters by as much as 15% above the current level . ¶ Another underappreciated contribution to marine ecosystems, the authors report online today inFrontiers in Ecology and the Environment, is the bounty of organic material the animals provide to deep-sea ecosystems when they die. A so- called whale fall of a 40-ton gray whale provides a boost of carbon to the seafloor community equivalent to more than 2000 years of normal detritus and nutrient cycling.¶ “The reduction of whale carcasses during the age of commercial whaling may have caused some of the earliest human-caused extinctions in the ocean,” writes the study’s first author, conservation biologist Joe Roman of the University of Vermont in Burlington, in an e-mail. “More than 60 species have been discovered that are found only on whale falls in recent decades. By removing this habitat through hunting, we may well have lost many species before we even knew they existed.”¶ Such new understandings, Roman and his colleagues write, “warrants a shift in view from whales being positively valued as exploitable goods … to one that recognizes that these animals play key roles in healthy marine ecosystems.”¶ The new study is a useful addition to the debate on the role of whales in global ecosystems, writes marine ecologist Lisa Ballance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in San Diego, California, in an e- mail. “As [whales] recover, we can indeed expect their influence on marine ecosystems to change the structure and function of those systems relative to the past 100 years.” Nitrogen Cycling Scenario

Whales sustain the "whale pump" – solves nitrogen cycling Roman and McCarthy, 10 – Roman is affiliated with Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America and McCarthy is affiliated with Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America (Joe and James J., “The Whale Pump: Marine Mammals Enhance Primary Productivity in a Coastal Basin", October 11, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi %2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0013255) //vivienne It is well known that microbes, zooplankton, and fish are important sources of recycled nitrogen in coastal waters, yet marine mammals have largely been ignored or dismissed in this cycle. Using field measurements and population data, we find that marine mammals can enhance primary productivity in their feeding areas by concentrating nitrogen near the surface through the release of flocculent fecal plumes. Whales and seals may be responsible for replenishing 2.3×104 metric tons of N per year in the Gulf of Maine's euphotic zone, more than the input of all rivers combined. This upward “whale pump” played a much larger role before commercial harvest, when marine mammal recycling of nitrogen was likely more than three times atmospheric N input. Even with reduced populations, marine mammals provide an important ecosystem service by sustaining productivity in regions where they occur in high densities. Warming Scenario

Whales are critical to the long stability of marine ecosystems, commercial fisheries, and long-term carbon sinks Maynard, 7/6 – Reporter for Tech Times (James, “Baleen and sperm whales are ocean's 'ecosystem engineers,' new study says,” 2014, Tech Times, http://www.techtimes.com/articles/9815/20140706/baleen-sperm-whales-oceans-ecosystem- engineers.htm)//vivienne Baleen and sperm whales act like ecosystem engineers in the global ocean, according to a new study from the University of Vermont. Whales help maintain the global ecological balance due, in part, to the release of vast quantities of feces. A new study examined decades of research on the marine mammals and their role in maintaining the balance of life in oceans. "For a long time, whales have been considered too rare to make much of a difference in the oceans," Joe Roman, conservation biologist at the University of Vermont, said. The researcher and his team found the animals play critical roles in the food chain underwater, and greatly affect commercial fisheries. The giant mammals also alter the uptake of carbon dioxide in the world's oceans. Whales could, therefore, also be affecting levels of the atmospheric greenhouse gas. " The decline in great whale numbers, estimated to be at least 66% and perhaps as high as 90%, has likely altered the structure and function of the oceans, but recovery is possible and in many cases is already underway," researchers wrote in an article announcing their investigation. Many species of whales were once on the verge of extinction. Recovery of whale populations could help stabilize oceans stressed by abnormally-high levels of carbon dioxide and pollution. The marine mammals can live several decades, giving these animals the chance to moderate the ecosystem over a significant period of time. Great whales , like the sperm and baleen varieties, consume vast quantities of fish. Baleen whales are the largest animals on the planet, yet they eat some of the smallest animals in the water. They then spread these nutrients throughout the water as they pass the digested food. When these massive creatures die, their bodies sink to the ocean floor, becoming "whale falls." Many species live exclusively within the remains of these behemoths. Centuries of hunting for food, oil and other resources pushed down the number of great whales around the world. This likely changed the balance of life in the oceans, the researchers stated. As populations recover, the ecosystem could also recover, biologists believe, and fishermen who once looked on whales as competition should instead welcome greater numbers of the animals. Regions where the giant mammals eat and mate could be ripe with nutrients and fish, ready to be caught by commercial fishing vessels. Study of how whales affect the world's marine ecosystem was published in the online journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.

Whales are critical to sustains ocean ecosystem and solves warming – their whaling good arguments are wrong and now is key Roman and McCarthy, 10 – Roman is affiliated with Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America and McCarthy is affiliated with Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America (Joe and James J., “The Whale Pump: Marine Mammals Enhance Primary Productivity in a Coastal Basin", October 11, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi %2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0013255) //vivienne Looking beyond the Gulf of Maine, it is important to consider the roles of present and past stocks of large air-breathing predators in the nutrient cycle of marine ecosystems. In the North Pacific, whale populations consume approximately 26% of the average daily net primary productivity; pre- exploitation populations may have required more than twice this sum [34]. Might primary productivity have been higher in the past as a result of a stronger whale pump? One recent study provides evidence that phytoplankton abundance has declined in 8 of 10 oceanic regions over the past century, and the authors suggest that this can be explained by ocean warming over this period [35]. Yet declines in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean regions, areas with especially high harvests of whale and seal populations over the past century, are in excess of the mean global rate. Full recovery from one serious anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems, namely the dramatic depletion of whale populations, can help to counter the impacts of another now underway—the decline in nutrients for phytoplankton growth caused by ocean warming . The whale pump may have even played a role in helping to support a greater number of apex consumers. In the Southern Hemisphere, Willis has noted that a decrease in krill abundance followed the near elimination of large whales [36]. He hypothesized that one factor in this counterintuitive decline is a shift in krill behavior. Another factor could be the diminished whale pump, which would have affected productivity by reducing the recycling of nutrients to near-surface waters: Smetacek and Nicol et al. have shown that whales recycle iron in surface waters of the Southern Ocean [23], [37]. The fertilization events of the whale pump can apply to nitrogen, iron, or other limiting nutrients. These findings have important implications for the management of ocean resources. As marine mammal populations recover, it has been suggested that whales and other predators should be culled to limit competition with human fishing efforts, an idea that has been championed to challenge international restrictions on whaling [38]. Yet no data have been forthcoming to support the logic of this assertion . Furthermore, recent studies suggest that marine mammals have a negligible effect on fisheries in the North Atlantic [39], [40]; simulated reductions in large whale abundance in the Caribbean did not produce any appreciable increase in biomass of commercially important fish species [41]. On the contrary, marine mammals provide important ecosystem services. On a global scale, they can influence climate, through fertilization events and the export of carbon from surface waters to the deep sea through sinking whale carcasses [42]. In coastal areas, whales retain nutrients locally, increasing ecosystem productivity and perhaps raising the carrying capacity for other marine consumers, including commercial fish species. An unintended effect of bounty programs and culls could be reduced availability of nitrogen in the euphotic zone and decreased overall productivity.

Whales key to solve for Climate Change Revell 7/5 – graduated with an undergraduate journalism degree in 2012 and a master's degree in history in 2013, both from the University of Lincoln (Tom, “More whales may help oceans deal with climate change,” Blue and Green Tomorrow, July 5, 2014, http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2014/07/05/more-whales-may-help-oceans-deal-with-climate- change/)//vivienne As concern grows about the health of the world’s oceans, threatened by rising temperatures, acidification and overfishing, a new report has claimed there is at least one reason to be optimistic about the future of the depths: the return of whale populations.¶ Scientists have previously suggested that whales are too rare and nomadic to have much of an impact on the wider marine ecosystem. However, a new study published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment casts whales as “engineers” of the seas. ¶ In the paper, researchers from the University of Vermont suggest that the 13 species of great whale have an important and positive influence on the function of oceans, on carbon storage, and on the state of fisheries around the world.¶ An ocean repopulated with whales would therefore be an ocean better prepared for the challenge of climate change. ¶ “As humpbacks, grey whales, sperm whales and other cetaceans recover from centuries of overhunting, we are beginning to see that they also play an important role in the ocean”, said study author Joe Roman. ¶ They do this, the paper suggests, primarily by spreading nutrients across the seas in their feces.¶ In a slightly grim process known as “whale pump“, the huge mammals feed in the depths and releasing faecal plumes near the surface, providing food for plankton and boosting the productivity of threatened ecosystems. Due to the vast distances whales travel, these benefits are spread far and wide. Whale Science = Commercialization

Scientific whaling is disguised commercial whaling and will spill over into full-scale hunting again Hirata, 05 (Keiko, Research Fellow, Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine, “Why Japan Supports Whaling,” May 23, http://www.csun.edu/~kh246690/whaling.pdf)//vivienne The Japanese government has argued that the purpose of scientific whaling is to establish a scientific system for the conservation and management of minke, Bryde’s, sei, and sperm whales.32 However, the program’s critics—including governments, 33 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs),34 journalists,35 academics,36 and scientists37—have condemned the program as inhumane and lacking scientific justification. They argue that Japan’s scientific whaling programs represent commercial whaling in disguise , since the whales captured in the program are lethally killed and their whale meat is sold in the open market . 38 Critics have also questioned the objectivity of Japan’s research, contending that the programs are designed to gather data to justify the restart of commercial whaling, rather than to independently analyze data for scientific purposes .39 While continuing the scientific whaling program, Japan has also taken more direct action to try to end the IWC moratorium. Japan has repeatedly petitioned the commission to overturn the moratorium and set up catch quotas for several stocks of minke whales . Japan’s request has been rejected by the commission on the ground that the IWC Scientific Committee had not completed an assessment of whale stocks. For example, in 1991, Japan petitioned to overturn the moratorium and to be allowed to take 3000 minke whales, but in vain.40

***Warming Updates*** Warming Good Biodiversity

No impact to warming – CO2 is beneficial for life Anthoni 7 – PhD in computer science, underwater cinematographer, and a marine ecologist (J Floor, “Are oceans becoming more acidic and is this a threat to marine life?”, http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm)//JFHH Opening with these thoughts, the (bio)chemistry of the sea is so complicated and unknown that the scare for acidic oceans is entirely unjustified . It is true that humans should act from a position of humility and prudence, adjusting to nature while never exploiting more than 30% of the environment but we have gone far over that limit. Today nature is adjusting to us and we cannot change that without a much smaller human population and much less waste (CO2 is part of human waste). Well, that is not going to happen . So we have to accept that nature is now changing. An important part of that is an increase of the life-bringing gas carbondioxide. With higher CO2 levels, plants will produce more . Hopefully the world will become warmer too, and all this is welcome to the starving billions . As oceans become more acidic, they will become more productive too , adjusting to the new scenario. There will be no 'tipping points' but there could be some unexpected and unforeseen surprises. The world has been changing and adapting to major changes since it came out of the last ice age , and the changes caused by fossil fuel will be relatively small . As far as the science of ocean acidification goes, there are some major errors and conflicts, and the amount of missing knowledge is much larger than what we know. Scientists have uncritically accepted the findings of the IPCC with critically low 'pre-industrial' levels of CO2, but has anyone tried to grow plants and seedlings at 180ppmv CO2? CO2 Agriculture

Warming is good for forage plants – creates a negative feedback loop and increases food production – drought resistant plants uniquely key Watts 7/24 - an American meteorologist (AMS seal holder, certification retired by AMS), president of IntelliWeather Inc., editor of the blog, Watts Up With That?, and founder of the Surface Stations Project, a volunteer initiative to document the set up and maintenance of weather stations across the United States (Anthony, “Another benefit of global warming – increased forage plants”, Watts Up with That, 7/24/14, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/24/another-bemefit-of-global-warming-increased-forage-plants/) //CW An increase in temperature by 2050 may be advantageous to the growth of forage plants With a 2°C increase in temperature, the plant Stylosanthes capitata Vogel was able to increase its leaf area and biomass in a study carried out by researchers at the University of São Paulo A 2°C increase in temperature around the world by 2050, according to one of the scenarios predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), may be advantageous to the physiology and the biochemical and biophysical processes involved in the growth of forage plants such as Stylosanthes capitata Vogel, a legume utilized for livestock grazing in tropical countries such as Brazil. The conclusion is from a study carried out by researchers in the Department of Biology at the Ribeirão Preto Faculty of Philosophy, Sciences and Languages and Literature at the University of São Paulo (USP). The outcome of a thematic project conducted under the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change (PFPMCG), the study has just been published in the journal Environmental and Experimental Botany. “The 2°C increase in temperature in the environment in which Stylosanthes capitata Vogel was experimentally cultivated promoted photosynthesis, in addition to increasing the leaf area and biomass of the plant,” said Carlos Alberto Martinez, project coordinator and first author of the study. The thematic project coordinated by Martinez involves researchers from the University of Illinois, Columbia University and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in addition to the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche of Italy, the Universitat de Barcelona in Spain, and, in Brazil, the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar), the São Paulo State University (Unesp) and the North Fluminense State University (UENF), as well as the Cena at USP, the Botanical Institute and Embrapa. According to Martinez, Stylosanthes capitata Vogel is a major forage legume in tropical and subtropical regions all over the world. This plant species is highly drought resistant and able to grow in sandy environments. With global climate change, it is estimated that a moderate temperature increase of slightly greater than 2°C could have damaging effects on the plant’s physiology and growth under cultivation in tropical environments such as Brazil. To test these hypotheses, the researchers conducted an experiment in which they cultivated plants in open fields, in a normal-temperature environment, and in a temperature-controlled area using a temperature free- air controlled enhancement system known as T-FACE. The system comes equipped to control heat emission from the crown of the plants through infrared heaters that enable the temperature of the growing environment to remain at a steady 2°C over ambient temperature. After cultivating the plants with these temperature differences for 30 days, the researchers measured photosynthetic energy dissipation and conducted aboveground biochemical and biomass analyses. The results of the measurements and analyses indicated that a temperature increase of approximately 2°C was able to improve the plants’ photosynthetic activity and level of antioxidant protection. In addition, there was a 32% increase in the leaf area index and a 16% increase in aboveground biomass production compared with plants grown at normal temperature, according to Martinez. “The increase in temperature during the period of the experiment was favorable for the development of the biochemical and biophysical processes involved in plant growth,” he stated. According to Martinez, some possible explanations for the increase in photosynthetic activity, in addition to the leaf area index and biomass production from samples of Stylosanthes capitata that experienced temperature increases, were the plant’s thermal and photosynthetic acclimatization. The plant adjusted its physiology to not only handle the potentially stressful increase in temperature during its growth phase but also conduct photosynthesis more efficiently and even increase growth under the new climate conditions. “The results of the study indicated that a temperature increase of up to 2°C could be advantageous for growth of some species of tropical plants, such as Stylosanthes capitata Vogel,” Martinez stated. “We need to clarify the effects that warming will have on the reproductive phase to detect the possible impacts increased temperatures will have on flowering, pollination, fruit development and other developmental processes of these plants,” she said. In another experiment, the researchers cultivated the forage plant Panicum maximum at a temperature 2°C above normal, at a carbon concentration of 600 parts per million (ppm), equivalent to twice the amount there is today, an amount that is expected to be reached by 2050, according to projections from the IPCC. The researchers found that there was less partitioning of biomass to the leaves relative to the stem of plants cultivated under these conditions. Similar results were obtained by researchers at the Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (Cena) at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq) of USP, Piracicaba campus in an experiment conducted using Brachiaria decumbens, a common grass found on coffee plantations and the major forage plant in Brazil, commonly known as signal grass. By cultivating the plant in an environment with 200 ppm carbon above current levels in a FACE system set up at the Embrapa Environmental Division in Jaguariúna, in inland São Paulo State, the researchers observed an increase in the production of stems and a decrease in biomass in the leaves of the plant. “This could have a series of implications for the use of this plant as a forage plant found in over 80 million hectares of Brazilian pastureland,” said Raquel Ghini, researcher at the Embrapa Environmental Division and one of the study’s authors. According to the assessment by Martinez, the potential impact of global climate change on plants used as pastureland needs to be investigated because plants represent the main food source for cattle in countries such as Brazil – one of the only countries in the world that produce meat and milk through the extensive farming of livestock, i.e., through livestock farming in pastures. If climate change affects the yield of tropical crops and pastureland, there will be significant economic consequences for Brazil and for the world’s food production, she said. “ The impacts of climate change on pasture areas are very serious and are already occurring,” said Martinez. “The solution for cultivating pastures in drought-susceptible areas may be through irrigation or the use of drought-resistant species that can adapt to climate changes,” the researcher told. Permafrost Methane Bursts Good

Permafrost melt creates thermokarst lakes that create negative feedback loops – act as massive carbon sinks – outweighs methane Watts 7/18 - an American meteorologist (AMS seal holder, certification retired by AMS), president of IntelliWeather Inc., editor of the blog, Watts Up With That?, and founder of the Surface Stations Project, a volunteer initiative to document the set up and maintenance of weather stations across the United States (Anthony, “A flip-flop on Arctic permafrost thaws – actually a net cooling rather than a warming”, Watts Up with That, 7/18/14, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/18/a-flip-flop-on-arctic-permafrost-thaws- actually-a-net-cooling-rather-than-a-warming/) //CW Since we discussed permafrost pingos today, I thought this story from the University of Alaska Fairbanks was a good sidekick story. It seems there’s a silver lining in melting permafrost after all. Study: Climate-cooling arctic lakes soak up greenhouse gases New University of Alaska Fairbanks research indicates that arctic thermokarst lakes stabilize climate change by storing more greenhouse gases than they emit into the atmosphere. Countering a widely-held view that thawing permafrost accelerates atmospheric warming, a study published this week in the scientific journal Nature suggests arctic thermokarst lakes are ‘net climate coolers’ when observed over longer, millennial, time scales. “Until now, we’ve only thought of thermokarst lakes as positive contributors to climate warming,” says lead researcher Katey Walter Anthony, associate research professor at the UAF Institute of Northern Engineering. “It is true that they do warm climate by strong when they first form, but on a longer-term scale, they switch to become climate coolers because they ultimately soak up more carbon from the atmosphere than they ever release.” Walter-Anthony is traveling, however she and collaborators will be available for an audioconference press briefing Wednesday, July 16 at 1:30, Alaska time (5:30 p.m. Eastern U.S.) Found in the Arctic and cold mountain regions, thermokarst lakes occur as permafrost thaws and creates surface depressions that fill with melted fresh water, converting what was previously frozen land into lakes. Researchers observed that roughly 5,000 years ago, thermokarst lakes in ice-rich regions of North Siberia and Alaska began cooling, instead of warming the atmosphere. “While methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming,” the authors write, “carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial time scales.” <> Using published data from the circumpolar arctic, their own new field observations of Siberian permafrost and thermokarsts, radiocarbon dating, atmospheric modeling, and spatial analyses, the research team studied how thawing permafrost is affecting climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers found that “thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5000 years ago,” according to their article, published online today. They found that high rates of carbon accumulation in lake sediments were stimulated by several factors, including “thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, […] nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity, and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms.” “These lakes are being fertilized by thawing yedoma permafrost,” explained co-author Miriam Jones, research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey. Yedoma is a type of permafrost that is rich in organic material. “So mosses and other plants flourish in these lakes, leading to carbon uptake rates that are among the highest in the world, even compared to carbon-rich peatlands.” <> The study also revealed another major factor of this process: Researchers found that when the lakes drain, previously thawed organic-rich lake sediments refreeze. The new permafrost formation then stores a large amount of carbon processed in and under thermokarst lakes, as well as the peat that formed after lake drainage. Researchers note that the new carbon storage is not forever, since future warming will likely start rethawing some of the permafrost and release some of the carbon in it via microbial decomposition. As roughly 30 percent of global permafrost carbon is concentrated within 7 percent of the permafrost region in Alaska, Canada, and Siberia, this study’s findings also renew scientific interest in how carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes offsets greenhouse gas emissions. Through its data collection, the study expanded the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by more than 50 percent. Warming Defense Alt Causes

Plan can’t solve – releases a ton of carbon dioxide Watts 7/23 - an American meteorologist (AMS seal holder, certification retired by AMS), president of IntelliWeather Inc., editor of the blog, Watts Up With That?, and founder of the Surface Stations Project, a volunteer initiative to document the set up and maintenance of weather stations across the United States (Anthony, “Uncertainty in the dirt: another climate feedback loop”, Watts Up with That, 7/23/14, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/23/uncertainty-in-the-dirt-another-climate-feedback-loop/) //CW Washington, DC — The planet’s soil releases about 60 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, which is far more than that released by burning fossil fuels. This happens through a process called soil respiration. This enormous release of carbon is balanced by carbon coming into the soil system from falling leaves and other plant matter, as well as by the underground activities of plant roots. Short-term warming studies have documented that rising temperatures increase the rate of soil respiration. As a result, scientists have worried that global warming would accelerate the decomposition of carbon in the soil, and decrease the amount of carbon stored there. If true, this would release even more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, where it would accelerate global warming. New work by a team of scientists including Carnegie’s Greg Asner and Christian Giardina of the U.S. Forest Service used an expansive whole-ecosystem study, the first of its kind, on tropical montane wet forests in Hawaii to sort through the many processes that control stocks with changing temperature. Their work is published in Nature Climate Change. The team revealed that higher temperatures increased the amount of leaf litter falling onto the soil, as well as other underground sources of carbon such as roots. Surprisingly, long-term warming had little effect on the overall storage of carbon in the tropical forest soil or the rate at which that carbon is processed into carbon dioxide. “If these findings hold true in other tropical regions, then warmer temperatures may not necessarily cause tropical soils to release their carbon to the atmosphere at a faster rate,” remarked Asner. “On the other hand, we cannot expect that the soil will soak up more carbon in places where vegetation is stimulated by warmer temperatures. Unlike tropical trees, the soil seems to be on the sidelines in the climate adaptation game.” This means the observed increase in the rate of soil respiration accompanying rising temperatures is due to carbon dioxide released by the an uptick in the amount of litter falling on the forest floor and an increase in carbon from underground sources. It is not from a decrease in the overall amount of carbon stored in the soil. Giardina noted “While we found that carbon stored in the mineral soil was insensitive to long-term warming, the loss of unprotected carbon responded strongly to temperature. This tells us that the sensitivity of each source of soil respiration needs to be quantified, and the aggregate response examined, before an understanding of ecosystem carbon balance in a warmer world can be achieved.” Warming isn’t real

All of their “models” are just computer flaws – real science proves no warming Adams ’14 - is the founding editor of NaturalNews.com, the internet's No. 1 natural health news website, now reaching 7 million unique readers a month (Mike, “Global warming data FAKED by government to fit climate change fictions”, 6/23/14, Natural News, http://www.naturalnews.com/045695_global_warming_fabricated_data_scientific_fraud.html) //CW (NaturalNews) When drug companies are caught faking clinical trial data, no one is surprised anymore. When vaccine manufacturers spike their human trial samples with animal antibodies to make sure their vaccines appear to work, we all just figure that's how they do business: lying, cheating, deceiving and violating the law. Now, in what might be the largest scientific fraud ever uncovered, NASA and the NOAA have been caught red-handed altering historical temperature data to produce a "climate change narrative" that defies reality. This finding, originally documented on the Real Science website, is detailed here. We now know that historical temperature data for the continental United States were deliberately altered by NASA and NOAA scientists in a politically-motivated attempt to rewrite history and claim global warming is causing U.S. temperatures to trend upward. The data actually show that we are in a cooling trend, not a warming trend (see charts below). This story is starting to break worldwide right now across the media, with The Telegraph now reporting (1), "NOAA's US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been 'adjusting' its record by replacing real temperatures with data 'fabricated' by computer models ." Because the actual historical temperature record doesn't fit the frenzied, doomsday narrative of global warming being fronted today on the political stage, the data were simply altered using "computer models" and then published as fact. Here's the proof of the climate change fraud Here's the chart of U.S. temperatures published by NASA in 1999. It shows the highest temperatures actually occurred in the 1930's, followed by a cooling trend ramping downward to the year 2000: <> The authenticity of this chart is not in question. It is published by James Hansen on NASA's website. (2) On that page, Hansen even wrote, "Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought." After the Obama administration took office, however, and started pushing the global warming narrative for political purposes, NASA was directed to alter its historical data in order to reverse the cooling trend and show a warming trend instead. This was accomplished using climate-modeling computers that simply fabricated the data the researchers wished to see instead of what was actually happening in the real world. Using the exact same data found in the chart shown above (with a few years of additional data after 2000), NASA managed to misleadingly distort the chart to depict the appearance of global warming: << graph removed>> The authenticity of this chart is also not in question. It can be found right now on NASA's servers. (4) This new, altered chart shows that historical data -- especially the severe heat and droughts experienced in the 1930's -- are now systematically suppressed to make them appear cooler than they really were. At the same time, temperature data from the 1970's to 2010 are strongly exaggerated to make them appear warmer than they really were. This is a clear case of scientific fraud being carried out on a grand scale in order to deceive the entire world about global warming. EPA data also confirm the global warming hoax What's even more interesting is that even the EPA's "Heat Wave Index" data further support the notion that the U.S. was far hotter in the 1930's than it is today. The following chart, published on the EPA.gov website (4), clearly shows modern-day heat waves are far smaller and less severe than those of the 1930's. In fact, the seemingly "extreme" heat waves of the last few years were no worse than those of the early 1900's or 1950's. No rapid warming

Newest studies prove that IPCC models are flawed – rapid warming is a myth – geological data, aerosols, ocean feedback, etc check – their model is too sensitive Loehle ’14 - Ph.D., is principal scientist at the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, where he conducts computer modeling of forest growth and global climate change research (Craig, “A minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity”, Ecological Modelling Volume 276, 3/24/14, Pages 80–84, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.006, http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.uchicago.edu/science/article/pii/S0304380014000404#) //CW Other studies are based on very uncertain satellite, ocean heat, and forcing data, which leads to wide confidence intervals. In contrast, the model used here is based on the pre-anthropogenic era (pre-1950) for estimating the timing and magnitude of solar and other natural effects, and is able to utilize 100 years worth of data for this purpose. It represents an independent estimate of sensitivity that avoids assumptions about forcing magnitudes and is not subject to errors due to the need to estimate difficult to compute or estimate metrics such as ocean heat content changes. The only simplifying assumption is that aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases and other forcings (e.g., land use change) approximately cancel each other. If aerosol forcings are overestimated, black soot underestimated, and/or solar influences underestimated by IPCC, as seems likely, then my sensitivity estimates should be adjusted down somewhat. In spite of the different approaches, there is remarkable agreement in many cases. Masters (2013) found SE = 1.98 °C (1.2–5.15 °C 90% confidence interval). Otto et al. (2013) found SE = 2.0 °C (1.2–3.9 °C 90% confidence interval). Lewis (2013) obtained an estimate of 1.6 °C (1.2–2.2 °C 90% bounds). Bengtsson and Schwartz (2013) calculated a value of 2.0 °C (±0.5 °C 95% interval). Overall the mean SE of recent empirical studies is close to 2, vs. 1.99 in this study. Thus the current study is closely in line with recent literature, but with narrower uncertainty bounds. This result, which supports empirical studies showing sensitivity less than model-based estimates, suggests that upper-end warming scenarios are unlikely. It also helps explain the result of Fyfe et al. (2013) that models overestimate warming over the past 20 years as due to models using too-high sensitivity values. While the focus is often on the equilibrium sensitivity, if equilibrium resulting from slow ocean turnover takes several hundred years, it is the transient sensitivity that will govern response by 2100. The low transient sensitivity of 1.093 °C estimated here (and similar low values less than 2.0 °C in literature cited in Section 1) suggests that warming over the next 100 years should be slow. On the other hand, if equilibrium with ocean uptake of heat is rapid, then the transient value computed here for a 54-year period of warming should actually be close to an equilibrium value, the equilibrium should be much less than the estimate here of 1.99 °C, and warming should again be slow over the 21st century. Either way, rapid warming by 2100 is precluded by these results. The rapid warming achieved by general circulation models results from certain assumptions about the behaviors of clouds, atmospheric circulation, and relative humidity which cannot be said to have been verified, and the empirical estimates in this paper and the cited literature, which agree with one another, should take precedence over complex models. 5. Conclusions The model used here is based on the pre- anthropogenic era (pre-1950) for estimating the timing and magnitude of solar and other natural effects, and is able to utilize 100 years of data for this purpose by factoring out natural climatic fluctuations over the past 150 years. It represents an independent estimate of sensitivity that avoids assumptions about forcing magnitudes and is not subject to errors due to the need to estimate difficult to compute or estimate metrics such as ocean heat content changes. For the period January 1959 to January 2013, transient climate sensitivity was estimated to be ST = 1.093 °C (0.96–1.23 °C 95% confidence limits) with equilibrium sensitivity scaled to SE = 1.986 °C (1.745–2.227 °C). This estimate closely agrees with other empirical studies based on a variety of methods but is much lower than estimates based on climate models. No warming

Newest studies prove that warming is just a natural fluctuation – natural cooling effects solve all impacts Watts 7/21 - an American meteorologist (AMS seal holder, certification retired by AMS), president of IntelliWeather Inc., editor of the blog, Watts Up With That?, and founder of the Surface Stations Project, a volunteer initiative to document the set up and maintenance of weather stations across the United States quoting Shaun Lovejoy - Professor of physics at McGill University (Anthony, “Claim: natural variation ‘masked’ global warming, creating ‘the pause’”, Watts Up with That, 7/21/14, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/21/claim-natural-variation-masked-global-warming-creating-the-pause/) //CW Statistical analysis of average global temperatures between 1998 and 2013 shows that the slowdown in global warming during this period is consistent with natural variations in temperature, according to research by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy. In a paper published this month in Geophysical Research Letters, Lovejoy concludes that a natural cooling fluctuation during this period largely masked the warming effects of a continued increase in man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The new study applies a statistical methodology developed by the McGill researcher in a previous paper, published in April in the journal Climate Dynamics. The earlier study — which used pre-industrial temperature proxies to analyze historical climate patterns — ruled out, with more than 99% certainty, the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is just a natural fluctuation in the earth’s climate. In his new paper, Lovejoy applies the same approach to the 15-year period after 1998, during which globally averaged temperatures remained high by historical standards, but were somewhat below most predictions generated by the complex computer models used by scientists to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions. The deceleration in rising temperatures during this 15-year period is sometimes referred to as a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming, and has raised questions about why the rate of surface warming on Earth has been markedly slower than in previous decades. Since levels of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the period, some skeptics have argued that the recent pattern undercuts the theory that global warming in the industrial era has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Lovejoy’s new study concludes that there has been a natural cooling fluctuation of about 0.28 to 0.37 degrees Celsius since 1998 — a pattern that is in line with variations that occur historically every 20 to 50 years, according to the analysis. “We find many examples of these variations in pre-industrial temperature reconstructions” based on proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and lake sediment, Lovejoy says. “ Being based on climate records, this approach avoids any biases that might affect the sophisticated computer models that are commonly used for understanding global warming.”

***Oil DA Updates** Uniqueness Prices High Prices high – Libya controls them LeVine 7-7 (Steve, Quartz, “Libya is releasing only a trickle of its oil exports so prices don’t collapse completely,” http://qz.com/230976/libya-is-releasing-only-a-trickle-of-its-oil-exports-so- prices-dont-collapse-completely/) //ER Oil prices declined again today as Libya said it is poised to resume crude exports after a deal struck last week between a local rebels and Tripoli. The country has millions of barrels cooped up in storage awaiting shipment, but to prevent a freefall of prices, Libya will only let out the oil gingerly. Libyan officials give widely varying estimates of how much oil is stored in Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, the two ports from which the oil will be shipped. Some officials say it is 3 to 4 million barrels (paywall), while others put the number at around 7.5 million, and still others estimate as much as 10 million (paywall). Whatever the case, there is a lot of oil— enough to trigger a serious price collapse if traders see signs of a fast release. That’s why it will be released slowly, said a spokesman for the state-owned National Oil Company, Mohamed el-Harari. Already, global oil prices have dropped about $5 a barrel on the news of an imminent resumption in Libyan oil, to $110.64 today for internationally traded Brent crude—and petro-states (including Libya) would like to keep the price from dropping further. Normally the two ports ship 560,000 barrels a day, about 40% of the country’s 1.3 million barrels a day of export capacity. Harari did not say when the shipments would resume. In all, some 3.5 million barrels a day of global oil capacity is off the market because of local politics in places such as Libya, and quite a bit of it is about to come back on line. US Production High US oil production is high now – becoming energy independent Battaglia 7-9 (Sarah, “Oil Production: The U.S. is Looking at Saudi Arabia in the Rearview Mirror,” 7-9-14, the energy collective, http://theenergycollective.com/sbattaglia/422716/oil- production-us-looking-saudi-arabia-rearview-mirror) //ER As Americans, we naturally strive to become number one. Our country has already dominated a handful of categories and achieved recognition for things like the most patents, the most Olympic medals, and of course, the highest cheese production (here’s to you, Wisconsin!). Now we can be proud of a new achievement: largest oil producer in the world. Bank of America Corp. reports (via Bloomberg) that the United States has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer of oil, and should hold that position for the rest of the year. The country’s crude oil production has exceeded 11 million barrels per day in the first quarter. “The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil,” states Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research for Bank of America. “The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.” Thanks, in part, to the process of hydraulic fracturing, Texas and North Dakota shale formations are experiencing a boom in oil extraction. Despite this growth, the Department of Energy reported that the U.S. still imported an average of 7.5 million barrels of crude per day in April. WHERE IS IT ALL COMING FROM? When it comes to energy independence, the U.S. works together as a whole, but there are two states in particular that are leading the way: Texas and North Dakota. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Texas is currently producing 36 percent of the nation’s oil. It stated: TEXAS PRODUCTION TOPPED 3.0 MILLION BBL/D FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE LATE 1970S, MORE THAN DOUBLING PRODUCTION IN THE PAST THREE YEARS … GAINS IN TEXAS CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION COME PRIMARILY FROM COUNTIES THAT CONTAIN UNCONVENTIONAL TIGHT OIL AND SHALE RESERVOIRS IN THE EAGLE FORD SHALE IN THE WESTERN GULF BASIN, WHERE DRILLING HAS INCREASINGLY TARGETED OIL-RICH AREAS, AND MULTIPLE RESERVOIRS WITHIN THE PERMIAN BASIN IN WEST TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL, OIL-DIRECTED DRILLING. In addition to the Lone Star state, North Dakota’s oil production has tripled over the last three years. Combined, these two states are responsible for nearly half of the nation’s oil production. THE FUTURE IS GLEAMING The International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting that U.S. oil production will experience a swell in 2019 to 13.1 million barrels per day, followed by a plateau effect. The country may even hold its top spot until 2030, according to the agency’s World Energy Outlook report. “There’s a very strong linkage between oil production growth, economic growth and wage growth across a range of U.S. states,” says Blanch. He goes on to explain that the country’s annual investment in oil and gas is currently sitting at a record $200 billion, accounting for 20 percent of its entire private fixed-structure spending, which has never happened before. Citigroup Inc. is estimating that the U.S. has the potential to export one million barrels of crude oil per day by the end of 2014. If this is true, we may be celebrating more than our nation’s independence next July 4th. Who else wants to see Ernest Moniz sign the Declaration of Energy Independence? Impacts Chinese Economy Scenario High oil prices kill the Chinese economy Holliday 7-7 (Katie, 7-7-14, “Will higher oil prices be a risk for China?,” CNBC Oil and Gas, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101812486) //ER As the world's second largest importer of oil, higher oil prices could pose a threat to China's economic growth story, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts have said. Brent crude oil prices jumped in early June as violence in Iraq - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' second largest oil producer - triggered supply disruption concerns. Prices of Brent crude rose around 5 percent from the end of May to around $115 per barrel on June 19, the highest level since last September. Prices have eased slightly, but at $111 per barrel stand above their January-to-May average of $108. Over the past few weeks, the al-Qaida-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have fed off the chaos of neighboring Syria's civil war to seize control of a large chunk of territory in Iraq, effectively erasing the border between the countries in the process. "The recent violence in Northern Iraq has raised questions on the potential impact of higher oil prices and an oil supply shock on the Chinese economy," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note published Thursday. The bank estimated that if Brent oil prices rose 10 percent annually - which would mean Brent crude prices of $122 per barrel by year end - China's economy could take a hit. More specifically, China's consumer price index (CPI) could rise by 0.2 percentage points, its current account surplus could fall by 0.2 percent of gross domestic product, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be negatively impacted by about 0.1 percentage points. While the impacts seem meager on a statistical basis, these concerns come amid concerns about slowing growth in the world's number two economy, as authorities attempt to promote a slower, more consumption driven level of growth. As a result, China's annual GDP growth weakened to 7.4 percent in the first quarter from 7.7 percent in the final quarter of last year. China plots its own Asia 'pivot' But other analysts said that China's fuel market operates differently to other parts of the world, because retail fuel prices are partly controlled by the government, meaning China could be partially immune to rising prices. "In the past, gasoline prices went up much less [in China] than what seen in the U.S. or Hong Kong when oil prices spiked. Beijing has been trying to make changes lately, but I still think that oil companies' profits will be affected more than retail gasoline prices, in the case that oil prices move up a lot," said Dong Tao at Credit Suisse. "Of course, China's the largest oil importer. Oil prices going up is not good news, as someone has to pay for it," he added. A 10 percent rise in oil prices was not BoA Merrill Lynch's base case scenario, however. The bank's commodity research team estimated that Brent prices would average $106 per barrel in 2014, but warned that there were upside risks to oil prices if the situation in Iraq stagnates. Read MoreHuge development for US oil business? "In the unlikely scenario where the Islamiq State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) temporarily enters Baghdad, Brent could head $10-15 per barrel higher. And in the highly unlikely scenario where '2.6 million barrels of Iraqi exports are disrupted', the impact would be more severe and Brent could rise $40-50," said the analysts. China's net oil imports accounted for 58 percent of its total oil consumption in 2013, and Iraq accounted for 8.3 percent of China's total imports and 4.8 percent of its consumption. Furthermore, its dependence on imports has risen to 58 percent in 2013 from 28 percent in 2000. Econ Turns the DA Economy decline turns oil prices Lynch 7-8 (Michael, “Would Bursting Asset Bubbles Affect Oil Prices?” Forbes, 7-8-14, http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2014/07/08/would-bursting-asset-bubbles-affect-oil- prices/?ss=energy) //ER The DOW drop below 17,000 has seemed to some a sign that maybe a correction is here. Talk of bubbles in some asset classes is spreading, the potential for less quantitative easing and higher interest rates, and the crying need for profit taking in stocks suggests to some analysts that the equities market will at least pause, possibly pull back notably. As always, there are those that disagree. But, if there is an equities correction, such as a drop of 20%, would that affect oil prices? Two schools of thought exist on this (don’t you hate that?), one suggesting that a bear market on Wall Street would pull down oil prices, the other that oil might become a perceived safe haven, or at least a parking spot, for the cash which institutions would have. Neither is necessarily right. (How’s that for a definitive answer?) A stock market correction is unlikely to trigger a recession, IMHO, because it would be more about taking prices back to a more reasonable level. Most Americans don’t have their wealth in equities, and so would be unlikely to react the way they do to lower housing prices. So, downward pressure on oil prices seems unlikely (from this cause), especially if the correction is focused on high-tech stocks. Alternatively, investors seem less likely to put money into oil than they might at other times, given that they are at historic highs (notwithstanding the bubble in 2008). The long-term price of oil is roughly $30 a barrel, so we are more than three times the “trend”. The only thing likely to push prices above these levels is a political event, such as unrest in a major exporting country. Likely candidates include Venezuela plus the Gulf monarchies, where unrest has been oft-predicted, rarely seen. If anything, less political risk seems to be the prospect for the near-term future. Libya shows signs of raising exports, and Iran is seriously negotiating with the Western powers on its nuclear program, which could lead to lower sanctions. Either one would add significant amounts of oil to the market and already Brent is showing some weakness. Other threats might be receding as well. ISIS/ISIL/IS appears to have peaked in its territorial gains and threat to the Iraqi government, and will probably become a textbook case of overreach. If it is pushed back, fears that it might disrupt oil exports would recede. On the other hand, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is heating up, and while it has no direct impact on oil supplies, violence in the region generally concentrates the minds of traders, and in the bullish direction. Lower prices are possible (and in the longer term, inevitable in my opinion), but current prices appear more driven by geopolitical concerns than either economic trends or the quantitative easing pressure on assets, and so changes in QE2 or equities levels would be unlikely to have a major impact.