Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta

March 2001 Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001 Notes

Alberta Environment publishes the "Plains The assistance of a number of private citizens who Runoff Outlook for Alberta" monthly, usually from diligently report observations of precipitation and other February to May. These reports are prepared by the data is also appreciated. Water Sciences Branch, Hydrology/Forecasting Alberta Environment and the National Section of the Department’s Water Management Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) from Division. Portland, Oregon are collaborating on the Water Alberta Environment is grateful for the Supply Forecasts for the Milk and St. Mary Rivers. assistance of Environment Canada’s Climatological Water Supply forecasts for the Western United States Services Unit and Water Resources Branch in providing are available through the NRCS web page: weather, precipitation and streamflow data. Snow http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/water/w_qnty.html survey data are also provided by the United States, Soil All data summarized in this publication are Conservation Service of Montana and the British preliminary and subject to revision. Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks.

Data used in this report are available on request from: Alberta Environment, Water Sciences Branch, Hydrology/Forecasting Section, 10th Fl, Oxbridge Place, 9820 -106 Street, Edmonton, Alberta, T5K 2J6, Fax: (780) 422-8606

This report is also available through Alberta Environment's automated streamflow information/fax-on- demand service. To access this service toll-free, please call the Alberta Government RITE Operator at 310-0000, available 24 hours a day from anywhere in the province. At the prompt, enter the phone number 207-2718 for our streamflow information/fax on demand service.

Historical Streamflow Information: Environment Canada, Calgary, (403) 292-5317

Equivalents of Measure Conversion to Parameter Metric Unit Imperial Units Snow depth centimetres 2.54 cm = 1 inch Water Equivalent millimetres 25.4 mm = 1 inch Elevation metres 1 m = 3.2808 feet Streamflow cubic metres per second 1 cms = 35.3 cfs Volume 3 3 3 cubic decametre (dam ) 1 dam =1000 m = 0.8107 acre-feet

Explanation of Descriptions Much-above-average In the upper 15% of recorded values Above-average Between the upper 15% and 35% of recorded values Below-average Between the lower 15% and 35% of recorded values Much-below-average In the lower 15% of recorded values Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001 Overview Fall precipitation (September to October) was near normal in southern areas of the province, above-normal in the north and below-normal in central regions, leaving most areas with dry soil moisture conditions heading into the winter.

The winter precipitation, November 1, 2000 to February 28, 2001, was much-below-normal across Alberta except in the Sundre area and along the eastern portion of the province, where normal precipitation was recorded. In February, most areas in the Plains area of Alberta received below to much-below-normal precipitation except eastern areas amd in the extreme southern portion of the province which recorded above-normal precipitation As of March 1, snowpack in most of the Plains area of the province is much-below-average. Snowpack is below-average in the Wabasca, Fort McMurray and Cypress Hills, average in the Coronation area, and average to much-above-average in the Sundre region.

The March 1, 2001 forecast is for much-below-normal spring runoff in north-central, central and southern Alberta except in the Sundre and Coronation areas, where below-normal to normal spring runoff is forecast. Spring runoff is forecast to be below-normal in northern Alberta. Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001 Winter Climatic Conditions During February, most areas in the Plains area of Alberta received below to much-below-normal precipitation. Precipitation was above-normal in eastern areas and in the extreme southern portion of the province (Figures 1 and 2). Temperatures were below-normal during February.

The winter precipitation, November 1, 2000 to February 28, 2001, was much-below-normal across Alberta (Figures 3 and 4). The only exceptions are in the Sundre area and along the eastern portion of the province, where normal precipitation was recorded.

Plains Spring Snowmelt Runoff Outlook

Fall Precipitation Fall precipitation (September to October) was near normal in southern areas of the province (Figures 5 and 6). Northern Alberta recorded above-normal precipitation while central regions recorded below-normal fall precipitation. The foothills of western Alberta received below-normal to much-below-normal fall precipitation in 2000. Despite normal fall precipitation in southern Alberta, conditions were dry as a result of much-below- normal precipitation in the summer of 2000, soil moisture conditions were still very dry heading into the winter season.

Plains Area Snowpack Snowpack in most of the Plains area of the province is much-below-average. Snowpack in the High Level, Wabasca and Fort Chipewyan zones are below-average to much-below-average for this time of the year. Many snow course measurements in these areas tied or set new historical minimum values. Wabasca, Fort McMurray and Cypress Hills areas indicate below-average snowpack. In the Coronation area, snowpack is average for this time of the year. Snowpack continues to be average to much-above-average in the Sundre region. This area of anomalous snowpack is in a relatively small area in the Sundre-Rocky Mountain House area. Snowpack conditions change rapidly as you move away from this area. A map of Plains area snowpack is available from the Environment Canada website located at: http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrp/SNOW/snow_swe.html.

Spring Snowmelt Runoff Outlook The March 1, 2001 forecast is for much-below-normal spring runoff in north-central, central and southern Alberta including the Grande Prairie, Slave Lake, Fort McMurray, Whitecourt, Cold Lake, Edson, Rocky Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001 Mountain House, Red Deer, Edmonton, Lloydminster, Brooks, Calgary, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Milk River and Cypress Hills regions (Figure 7). Spring runoff is forecast to be below-normal in northern Alberta, including the Wabasca and Fort Chipewyan areas. Below-normal to normal spring runoff is forecast for the Sundre and Coronation areas.

These forecasts are based on the antecedent soil moisture conditions (fall precipitation), winter precipitation, temperature and snowpack on the ground. Routine snow surveys to monitor snowpack on the plains begin in early March. Since it is early in the spring runoff forecasting season, weather conditions leading up to the spring snowmelt could change this runoff forecast considerably. Check the Forecaster’s Comments on the department web page throughout the month for updated information regarding spring runoff conditions. Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Slave River

59 FORT River CHIPEWYAN Hay

River Peace River HIGH 89 LEVEL

River

Chinchaga Wabasca River

River 79 Clearwater FORT R. McMURRAY Peace 50 PEACE RIVER Athabasca River GRANDE PRAIRIE 60 46 SLAVE LAKE Wapiti River COLD

Little Smoky R. LAKE

Smoky 32 Beaver R. River 45 River WHITECOURT River 66 21 EDMONTON Athabasca EDSON 13 22 Pembina LLOYDMINSTER Battle River JASPER River Saskatchewan

Brazeau RED DEER North ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE 98 Red Deer CORONATION

River 81 BANFF Bow 79 CALGARY Figure 1 Elbow R. River 23 Precipitation BROOKS Highwood R. February 1 to 28, 2001 Saskatchewan103 R. Oldman South as a percent of Normal River MEDICINE Normal = 100% 48 HAT LETHBRIDGE (based on 1961 to 1990 data) PINCHER Milk River CREEK 60 St. Mary R. Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Brazeau Res.

River River ROCKY PONOKA Buffalo Battle Saskatchewan MOUNTAIN R. North L. 54 HOUSE BIGHORN 98 L. DAM Sullivan Abraham RED DEER L. Gleniffer CORONATION L. Dickson Dam Chain 120 L. Red Deer R. SUNDRE 70 LAKE DRUMHELLER LOUISE L. Minnewanka Bow Red Ghost 79 81 L. CALGARY 213 BANFF ELBOW Crawling EMPRESS Spray R. RANGER Valley Res. Lakes R. River Res. STN. Glenmore Res. Bow Deer R. Elbow Carseland Bassano 102 120 23 River Weir Dam BROOKS KANANASKIS HIGH McGregor R. RIVER L. L. Newell

Hig113hwood Badger Saskatchewan 57 Travers Res. PEKISKO Res. MEDICINE CLARESHOLM HAT Keho South 70 L. River 103 Oldman Oldman 48 COLEMAN Chin Lodge River LETHBRIDGE L. MANYBERRIES Ck. PINCHER Belly R. Waterton R. CREEK Waterton Ridge Pakowki 46 Res. St. Mary Res. L. Res. CAMERON60 195 DEL MILK Milk R. FALLS BONITA RIVER

St. Mary R.

Milk R.

Figure 2 Winter Precipitation Southern Alberta February 1 to 28, 2001 as a percent of Normal Normal = 100% (based on 1961 to 1990 data) Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Slave River

FORT River CHIPEWYAN Hay 46

River Peace River HIGH 55 LEVEL

River

Chinchaga Wabasca River

River 54 Clearwater R. FORT McMURRAY Peace 41 PEACE RIVER Athabasca River GRANDE PRAIRIE 33 46 SLAVE LAKE Wapiti River COLD

Little Smoky R. LAKE

Smoky Beaver R. 31 River 47 River WHITECOURT River

48 31 EDMONTON Athabasca 26 EDSON 36 Pembina LLOYDMINSTER Battle River JASPER River Saskatchewan

Brazeau RED DEER North ROCKY MOUNTAIN 69 HOUSE Red Deer CORONATION

River 38 BANFF Bow 50 CALGARY Elbow R. River 41

Highwood BROOKS R. Saskatchewan79 R. Oldman South River MEDICINE 83 HAT Figure 3 LETHBRIDGE

Winter Precipitation PINCHER Milk River CREEK November 1, 2000 to February 28, 2001 St. Mary R. as a percent of Normal Normal = 100% (based on 1961 to 1990 data) Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Brazeau Res.

River River ROCKY PONOKA Buffalo Battle Saskatchewan MOUNTAIN R. North L. 57 HOUSE BIGHORN 69 L. DAM Sullivan Abraham RED DEER L. Gleniffer CORONATION L. Dickson Dam Chain 108 L. Red Deer R. SUNDRE 39 LAKE DRUMHELLER LOUISE L. Minnewanka Bow Red Ghost 50 38 L. CALGARY 107 BANFF ELBOW Crawling EMPRESS Spray R. Valley Res. RANGER R. Lakes STN. River Res. Glenmore Res. Bow Deer R. Elbow Carseland Bassano 41 54 71 Weir Dam River BROOKS KANANASKIS HIGH McGregor R. L. L. RIVER Newell Highwood Badger Saskatchewan Travers Res. PEKISKO Res. 79 MEDICINE 41 CLARESHOLM HAT Keho South L. River Oldman 48 Oldman 83 COLEMAN Chin Lodge River LETHBRIDGE L. MANYBERRIES Ck. PINCHER Belly R. Waterton R. CREEK Waterton Ridge Pakowki 70 Res. St. Mary Res. L. Res. CAMERON 60 DEL MILK Milk R. FALLS BONITA RIVER

St. Mary R.

Milk R.

Figure 4 Winter Precipitation Southern Alberta November 1, 2000 to February 28, 2001 as a percent of Normal Normal = 100% (based on 1961 to 1990 data) Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Slave River

FORT River CHIPEWYAN Hay 97

River HIGH 121 Peace River LEVEL

River

Chinchaga Wabasca River

River 56 Clearwater R. FORT McMURRAY Peace 98 PEACE RIVER Athabasca

River GRANDE PRAIRIE 56 129 SLAVE LAKE Wapiti River COLD

Little Smoky R. LAKE

Smoky 111 Beaver R. River 118 River WHITECOURT River

75 85 EDMONTON Athabasca 103 EDSON 62 Pembina LLOYDMINSTER Battle JASPER River River Saskatchewan

Brazeau RED DEER North ROCKY 103 MOUNTAIN HOUSE 42 Red Deer CORONATION

River 80 BANFF Bow 88 CALGARY Figure 5 Elbow R. River 77 Fall Precipitation Highwood BROOKS R. September 1 to October 31, 2000 Saskatchewan79 R. Oldman South as a percent of Normal River MEDICINE Normal = 100% 65 100 HAT LETHBRIDGE (based on 1961 to 1990 data) PINCHER CREEK Milk River St. Mary R. Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Brazeau Res.

River River ROCKY PONOKA Buffalo Battle Saskatchewan MOUNTAIN R. North L. 65 HOUSE BIGHORN 42 L. DAM Sullivan 103 Abraham RED DEER L. Gleniffer CORONATION L. Dickson Dam Chain 75 L.

Red Deer R. SUNDRE

LAKE DRUMHELLER LOUISE L. Minnewanka Bow Red Ghost 88 115 80 L. CALGARY 92 BANFF ELBOW Crawling EMPRESS Spray R. RANGER Valley Res. Lakes R. River Res. STN. Glenmore Res. Bow Deer R. Elbow 126 Carseland Bassano River 92 103 Weir Dam BROOKS KANANASKIS HIGH McGregor 77 R. RIVER L. L. Newell Highwood Badger Saskatchewan Travers Res. 93 PEKISKO Res. MEDICINE CLARESHOLM HAT Keho South 85 L. River Oldman 79 Oldman 100 COLEMAN Chin Lodge River LETHBRIDGE L. MANYBERRIES Ck. 65 Belly R. PINCHER Waterton R. CREEK Waterton Ridge Pakowki 62 Res. St. Mary Res. L. Res. CAMERON DEL MILK Milk R. FALLS BONITA RIVER St. Mary R. 96 Milk R.

Figure 6 Fall Precipitation Southern Alberta September 1 to October 31, 2000 as a percent of Normal Normal = 100% (based on 1961 to 1990 data) Plains Runoff Outlook for Alberta – March 2001

Slave River

High Level Zone Fort Chipewyan River BN FORT Zone Hay BN CHIPEWYAN

HIGH LEVEL Peace River River

Chinchaga BN River

Wabasca River Wabasca Zone

River Grande Prairie - Clearwater R. Peace River FORT MBN McMURRAY Zone Peace MBN Ft . McMurray PEACE RIVER Zone Athabasca River Lesser Slave Lake Zone GRANDE PRAIRIE

MBNSLAVE LAKE Cold Lake Zone Wapiti River MBN Whitecourt - Little Smoky R. MBN COLD LAKE Athabasca Beaver R. Smoky River Zone River WHITECOURT River

EDMONTON Athabasca EDSON Pembina LLOYDMINSTER MBN Saskatchewan MBN Edmonton - Rocky Mountain House - JASPER River Lloydminster Edson Zone River Battle MBN Zone North Red Deer Zone Brazeau RED DEER BN-NROCKY MTN. HOUSE CORONATION

Red Deer BN-N BN-N Coronation - River Brooks Zone

BANFF Bow CALGARY Calgary Zone Elbow R. MBN River BROOKS Highwood Lethbridge - R. MEDICINE Legend Saskatchewan R. HAT Medicine Hat Oldman MBN South MAN - much-above-normal River Zone

AN - above-normal LETHBRIDGE MBN PINCHER Cypress N - normal CK. BN - below-normal Milk River Hills Zone St. Mary R. MBN - much-below-normal MBN Milk River Zone

Figure 7 Plains Spring Runoff Outlook as of March 1, 2001

Issued by: Hydrology/Forecasting Section, Water Sciences Branch