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Turkmenistan: Analysis of Gurbanguly Berdyimuhamedow's Reform Turkmenistan: analysis of Gurbanguly Berdyimuhamedow’s reform “After coming to power of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the international community had high hopes about the new president of Turkmenistan, including the hopes for democratization, improved human rights situation in the country, economic cooperation and openness. A number of decrees and actions taken by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at the beginning of his reign, in fact, were aimed at eliminating errors and experimentation of the past. However, it soon became clear that these hopes were unfounded”, – political scientist, coordinator of Research and Training of the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Svetlana Dzardanova discusses the results of the reform made by the Turkmen President exclusively for cabar.asia. Follow us on LinkedIn! In 2015, only 913 people were able to get a tourist visa and visit Turkmenistan, a country whose closeness does not decrease, but rather fuels the interest in it. The country remains closed for a simple layman, for researchers and for people involved in the decision-making process. Having received independence simultaneously with the other republics of Central Asia, Turkmenistan, however, went much further than its neighbors in building its statehood and self-isolation in an attempt to isolate the country from external influences. This was made possible largely thanks to the rich reserves of hydrocarbons (natural gas – 17.5 trillion cubic meters and oil – 0.6 billion barrels in 2013), the status of permanent neutrality, geography and a relatively small population (about 5.5 million people according to the data in 2016). Providing the population free of charge with such social benefits as gas, electricity, water and salt, subsidizing fuel prices, the government remains absolutely uncontrolled and unaccountable to their people, continuing the practice of nominal elections, in which the incumbent head of state, according to the “tradition” established by the past President, received 97.14% of votes in 2012. In the absence of the civil society in the country, the Turkmenistan: analysis of Gurbanguly Berdyimuhamedow’s reform population remains an outside observer of the processes occurring in the country, without any opportunity of participation and influence on the ruling elite. The transfer of power took place relatively peacefully in Turkmenistan in 2007, when Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov replaced the deceased Saparmurat Niyazov (Turkmenbashi). Almost a decade later, it would be appropriate to assess his activities at the post of the President of the country. What path of development and which strategy did the President choose? Is he trying to achieve success based on the experience of Singapore and China? The international community had high hopes about the new President of Turkmenistan, including the hopes for democratization, improved human rights situation in the country, economic cooperation and openness. A number of decrees and actions taken by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at the beginning of his reign, in fact, were aimed at eliminating errors and experimentation of the past. However, it soon became clear that these hopes were unfounded. Resources and power The reign of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is characterized by more pragmatic approach and is based on economic feasibility. This is evident in the selectivity with which he adopts new laws, as well as in the support or cancellation of decrees of the former President. Unlike Turkmenbashi, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is not an orphan and comes from the most numerous clan of Teke. If Saparmurat Niyazov relied on a staff rotation system, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov built a clan system. To strengthen his position, he immediately appointed family members and members of the clan to key positions and focused core assets in his own hands. In particular, the new law of Turkmenistan “On hydrocarbon resources”, adopted by the Mejlis of Turkmenistan on August 20, 2008, gave almost the entire industry under the control of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, abolishing some specialized agencies and creating instead the State Agency for Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources, which is fully accountable to the President. After the signing of the new Constitution in 2008, the People’s Maskhalaty (People’s Council), a fictitious and bulky body (2500 members) performing the fictitious function of people’s participation in decision-making, was abolished. The powers of People’s Maskhalaty were given to the President and the Majlis (Parliament). Continuing the trend of facade changes, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov ostentatiously seeks to create a multi-party social and political system, adding in 2014 the Agrarian Party of Turkmenistan to the existing Democratic Party and the Party of Industrialists and Turkmenistan: analysis of Gurbanguly Berdyimuhamedow’s reform Entrepreneurs. However, according to many observers, the country is divided into spheres of influence between the President’s relatives. His son in law is a representative of the Turkmen State Agency for the Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources in London. His nephews control the market of household appliances and construction business. According to the newspaper Gundogar, his son Serdar, who was previously in the shadow, has recently become a more prominent figure, recently received his doctorate degree and today, he is the head of the “Turkmengalla” Association under the Ministry of Agriculture of Turkmenistan. It is expected that soon he will be promoted to the position of the Deputy Minister of Agriculture. In spite of this, Serdar is unlikely considered by the President as his successor. This role is prepared for his grandson Kerimguly, who is now 12 years old and is very popular with the local media. President frequently brings him to official receptions and meetings. This concern about the numerous representatives of the President’s family is by no means incompetent, because Article 74 reads: “Provision, maintenance and protection of the President of Turkmenistan and his family are made at the expense of the state”. To further strengthen his position, another constitutional reform was initiated in 2016, which, among other changes, already made a proposal to extend the presidential term (from five to seven years), and to lift the maximum age limit for the performance of duties of the head of state.[1] No wonder, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov himself chairs the meetings on the “improvement” of the Constitution. Economy and Education Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov understands that while the political situation is completely controlled by him, the further economic development of the country depends on the quality of experts involved in the most important sectors of the economy. Therefore, almost immediately after his taking office in 2007, his first decrees brought back a 10-year school system and abolished the requirement of compulsory two years of work experience before entering the universities. In the academic year of 2013/2014, there was a transition to a 12- year school system. Given that the raw material policy requires highly qualified personnel, as well as the desire to reduce dependence on foreign experts, the new administration also supports the training of local specialists abroad on a number of majors in countries such as Malaysia and Turkey. New universities were established: the Turkmen State Institute of Oil and Gas, the Turkmen State University of Architecture, Civil Engineering Institute and the International University of Humanities and Development (2014). New majors have also been introduced in universities. However, the education abroad, which does not meet the government’s needs, Turkmenistan: analysis of Gurbanguly Berdyimuhamedow’s reform remains problematic. So in 2010, the government restricted freedom of movement of Turkmen students studying at the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek. These students could not continue their studies after the summer holidays. In addition, the pressure was exerted against the remaining students abroad to get them back home. Another decree dissolved Turkmen- Turkish schools in 2011, and their students joined local secondary schools. A similar depressing situation remains in the field of research about Turkmenistan inside the country because of the limited regime for entry. The concern expressed by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov recently on the foreign research only confirms it. In his opinion, “Foreign researchers must publish their research only after verification by the Ministry of Culture and the Scientific Council of the Academies of Sciences of Turkmenistan”.[2] Such signals of the Turkmen authorities call into question the effectiveness of the education reform. With excellent technical equipment of educational institutions, the access to information on the Internet however is limited. Internet is available primarily through mobile apps at the popular social networking sites such as Odnoklassniki and Vkontakte. In addition, there is an acute problem of developing curricula and textbooks, lack of qualified teachers and researchers, the cause of which was rampant migration during the reign of Saparmurat Niyazov. And despite the obvious fact that Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is trying to build more thoughtful educational policies, compared to the first Head of state, in order to make fundamental changes, he will need more political will than resources. Neutrality: foreign and security policy Last year, Turkmenistan magnificently celebrated the 20th anniversary of international recognition of permanent
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