When International Partnerships Go Wrong David Southwood Draws Lessons from a Crisis-Ridden Year for European Cooperation in Space

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Europe’s ExoMars mission aims to land a rover on Mars in 2018 to search for traces of life. When international partnerships go wrong David Southwood draws lessons from a crisis-ridden year for European cooperation in space.

he recent discovery of the Higgs US funds from two major joint missions, projects while bearing in mind the possible boson by CERN, the European the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) withdrawal of players and curbing mission Organization for Nuclear Research and a planned mission to Jupiter. My suc- creep. Although it was the United States that Tmade up of 20 member states, shows how cessor, Alvaro Giménez, has already had withdrew as a major partner in the cases I international cooperation can lead to success worse: withdrawal of the United States from mention, the lessons are general and will in science that is otherwise unachievable. ExoMars, a Mars exploration programme. become increasingly important with the rise But there are challenges in working across All three cases played out differently. Each of large international collaborations involving borders. As the current crisis with the euro project holds lessons new players such as China, India and Russia. illustrates, political and financial problems NATURE.COM for managing future The nature of sovereign governments hit some partners harder than others. In my For more on collaborations, such means that rarely is an international agree- final year as director of Science and Robotic NASA’s Mars rover, as understanding part- ment to cooperate completely legally Exploration at the European Space Agency Curiosity, see: ners’ motivations for binding. A sense of solidarity among part- (ESA) in 2011, I had to face withdrawal of nature.com/curiosity joining, overseeing ners usually motivates them to remain

committed, as with the JWST, for for life on the red planet. In this case, the US example. Cooperation between Europe and withdrawal has clearly damaged Europe’s ESA the United States on this infrared successor position, although not all the fault lies with to the Hubble Space Telescope began in 2002. the United States, which stepped in to help Europe agreed to provide the mid-infrared only in 2009 (see ‘ExoMars timeline’). instrument, the near-infrared spectrograph and an Ariane rocket as the launcher. The MISSION CREEP United States would provide the spacecraft Pulling together resources for a large and its operations, another instrument and programme is a long, difficult job with the complex deployable telescope. The Euro- numerous pitfalls. Projects start by con- pean instruments are now ready, but the US sensus-building. Compromise is the order side has seen financial over-runs and delays. of the day and so the first danger emerges: Launch is now expected in 2018, seven years features are added to win further support EXOMARS later than planned. from participating countries. ExoMars was TIMELINE In July 2011, after further escalations in vulnerable from the start. With participation How changing international collaborations budget requests for the JWST, a US House optional for ESA member states, and no for- have a ected Europe’s next mission to Mars. of Representatives committee recommended mula to determine their share, each wanted cancelling the observatory. The Europeans an assured niche role before they committed. DECEMBE 2005 found themselves in the uncomfortable posi- So the ExoMars programme grew. European ministers approve agship ESA mission to Mars with Soyuz tion of having spent well over €100 million Expanding the scope improved the mission rocket launch in 2011. (US$123 million) with the possibility of no from a scientific and technical perspective, flight, and having no direct influence other but it became unwieldy and unaffordable. than moral pressure. In the end, delibera- The added complexity increased the risk JULY 2007 tions between the White House, Congress that some components would not work or First industry contracts awarded. Launch vehicles with more power and NASA — helped by diplomatic and might not be on time and budget. Vocal opti- than Soyuz are canvassed. political pressure from Europe — led to the mists dissuaded the prudent managers who project’s reprieve. wanted to drop modules to get more done. Instead, ESA sought new partners. JULY 2008 JUMPING SHIP The United States and Russia were ESA and NASA agree on joint studies towards returning samples from Mars. In February last year, the United States approached but didn’t sign up, partly because pulled out of a joint Jupiter mission, leaving of Europe’s need to stick to promises already Europe to go it alone. The mission was the made within the original European consor- JULY 2009 front-runner in a group of similar projects tium and because there was no joint goal for ESA and NASA approve under deliberation by the ESA science-advi- the potential partner to share. dual-mission Joint Mars Exploration sory groups. Fortunately, Europe had spent In 2008, I inherited the programme from Initiative (JMEI): an orbiter in 2016 and a rover in 2018 with US launch. only around €5 million on it. Because more another directorate. I went back to talk to missions enter the study phase than actu- NASA. The long-term goal of robotic explo- ally fly, this was not a disaster. But, without ration of Mars, as underscored a few years AUGUST 2009 the certainty of US involvement, long-term later by the 2011 US National Academy of Russia and ESA agree to planning by the Europeans was thrown into Sciences decadal survey, is to return sam- cooperate on two Mars missions: Phobos-Grunt and ExoMars. disarray. There were no alternative proposals ples. That will be expensive and cannot be involving only Europe. achieved by the United States alone. My The Europeans bounced back by resetting NASA counterpart, Ed Weiler, and I agreed OCTOBE 2009 the clock for entries to the competition, and that cooperation would be inevitable at JMEI scenario expands: an ESA by rethinking and reconstructing several some point in the next decade. Once this lander in 2016 and two rovers in missions with reduced goals. A final ESA was accepted, it was rational to start work- 2018, one from each agency. go-ahead for the Jupiter mission came in ing together as early as possible. May 2012. Costing €830 million, the planned The design of ExoMars was modified to DECEMBE 2009 Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) aims to suit common European and US goals and to European governments approve a fly past Europa and Callisto and then orbit allow sample return. It seemed a win–win €1-billion Mars programme with NASA. Ganymede and study its subsurface ocean in arrangement: ExoMars was able to continue, 2030. US scientists are anxious to get back on and the prospect of sample return from Mars board, and NASA has just found US$100 mil- moved closer for both US and European sci- APIL 20 lion to secure some participation. entists. I felt confident as the European side NASA cancels its 2018 rover as ExoMars, a €1-billion mission for Europe of ExoMars moved into the development US budget crisis hits. alone, is a different story. This February, the phase in early 2011. No one foresaw that United States pulled out, leaving Europe with the US priority for a joint Mars programme FEBUAY 20 2 a funding gap of up to €250 million and hav- would founder as soon as the next annual NASA ends its ing already spent more than €100 million. budget cycle. involvement in ExoMars. Given the committed industrial contracts, Although such let-downs are merci- cancellation would cost up to €400 million. fully rare, a similar thing happened around MACH 20 2 The flagship mission to send an orbiter 30 years ago in the first months of President ESA conrms ExoMars go-ahead and rover to Mars by 2018 started with Ronald Reagan’s administration. NASA, faced with Russia as main partner. purely European ambitions in 2005 — to with a funding crisis, was forced to choose develop regional expertise in exploration between the Hubble Space Telescope, the technologies and to apply methods to search Galileo Jupiter orbiter and the International

of a more effective mission. The European GAIA mission to map and track the stars in the Galaxy, scheduled for launch next year, was targeted for cancellation because of a financial crisis in 2001, shortly after my appointment at ESA. A major descoping took place but the programme survived. I am sure it will be a success. Third, one needs to ensure that manage- rial risk inside programmes is minimized by making partners’ contributions as modular as possible. If one part fails, it need not hin- der the whole. Efficiency gains follow, and the programme retains the potential to change partners. Of course, discrepancies in schedule-keeping will leave open the situa- tion where one partner moves ahead of the other (as with the JWST), but the modular approach avoids many potential log-jams. Fourth, be aware that even the most thor- oughly crafted agreements between nations can be broken. It seemed unthinkable that NASA would drop a Mars sample-return mission deemed as a first priority in the decadal review, but it happened. Managers must always consider the possibility of cooperation breakdown as a risk. If such a breakdown does occur, the final levers are those of diplo- The European Space Agency intends its Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer to reach Ganymede in 2030. macy and political persuasion by national administrations, together with moral pres- Solar Polar Mission. It withdrew from the partner’s motivation for joining a mission. sure from the scientific community. last. Reluctantly, Europe assumed the lead in a Cooperation cannot be relied on when Fifth, in difficult times, space scientists

ESA/AOES reduced solar mission, renamed Ulysses. The partners’ agendas are incompatible. If a pro- need to know the virtues of collaboration spacecraft was enormously successful, mak- gramme is intended mainly to display one and be prepared to deploy those arguments ing three polar orbits of the Sun and operating group’s capability, as with the original plans through whatever channel. In my opinion, for 18 years before being switched off in 2009. for ExoMars, then that group must be pre- cooperation goes beyond simple economics Ulysses marked a watershed: the first mis- pared to go it alone. Mutual goals — such as — it breaks down cultural differences, builds sion in which Europe led and the United a collective priority for sample return — can mutual trust, opens up scientific potential States followed. Many more have been encourage others to get on board. worldwide and conveys inspiration glob- launched since — including the Cluster sat- Second, cooperation means that consen- ally, and thereby benefits all humanity. The ellite constellation that mapped the electrical sus and compromise rule, and that leads damage done by breaking understandings, current systems of Earth’s magnetosphere to growth. Multi-partner missions rarely however technically legal, is to be avoided and the Herschel infrared observatory. The shrink. Moreover, no interested party will for all these reasons. ESA Jupiter moon mission follows the Ulysses voluntarily descope and lessen their pro- In the end, the economic advantages of model of downscaling and going it alone. ject’s priority once the programme starts. Be international cooperation manifestly out- The solution for ExoMars seems to mark prepared to cancel modules in the prepara- weigh the increased risks. In many cases, another watershed: Europe has alternative tory phases if demands keep increasing and such as with the JWST and European explo- partners. ESA has turned to Russia to make resources are spread too thin. ration of Mars, there is no alternative. Large up the deficit left by the United States. It is Delay and reflection can lead to a rebirth international partnerships are becoming the not the first time that these nations have norm in other fields, from the Square Kilo- collaborated in space, but it is the most ambi- metre Array telescope to be built in Australia tious project proposed so far. Space scientists and South Africa, to ITER, the international should wish the venture well, because the COLLABORATION nuclear-fusion project under construction future is likely to hold an increasingly varied Steps to success in France. Pooling resources creates facilities pattern of international partners. In recent that could not otherwise be built. Learning years, Europe has undertaken joint space- ●●Understand each partner’s from what has gone wrong in the past is vital science projects with China and India, and motivation. if these consortia are to be successful. ■ has begun a large cooperation with Japan ●●Be willing to drop features to on BepiColombo, a mission involving two assure completion. David Southwood is senior research Mercury orbiters. ●●Keep contributions modular to investigator in physics at Imperial College reduce risk if one fails. London, president of the Royal Astronomical VALUABLE LESSONS ●●Be prepared for international Society and a steering-board member of the Five lessons can be drawn from this crisis- agreements to be broken. UK Space Agency. He was director of science ridden year for national space administra- ●●Argue the political case for and robotic exploration at the European tors (see ‘Steps to success’). collaboration in difficult times. Space Agency in 2001–11. First, it is important to understand each e-mail: [email protected]