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Strategisk Regnskabsanalyse Og Værdiansættelse Af H. Lundbeck A/S

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Strategisk Regnskabsanalyse Og Værdiansættelse Af H. Lundbeck A/S Copenhagen Business School Hovedopgave 2011 Institut for Regnskab HD-R (Regnskab og og Revision Økonomistyring) Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af H. Lundbeck A/S Vejleder: Udarbejdet af: Ole Sørensen Mikael Thaarup Robertsen Institut for Regnskab og Revision Cpr. nr. 300880-XXXX Copenhagen Business School Afleveret 16. maj 2011 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY H. Lundbeck A/S is an international pharmaceutical company focused on development and marketing of treatment for diseases within the central nerve system (CNS). Lundbeck has in the last few years had an outstanding financial performance, but in the same period the value of the company’s stock are at a historical low. On top of that the largest Nordic bank Nordea had a sell recommendation and a target price of 85 DKK as late as end of 2010. Has the sell recommendation and the low target price a justification due to the fact that Lundbeck’s blockbuster product Cipralex®/Lexapro® will lose patent protection in 2012 in the US and 2014 in the remaining of the world? The derived objective of the thesis has been to create a reliable valuation of Lundbeck taking into account the current business, including products and research pipeline, the historic financial performance and the financial outlook for the future. The objective of the strategic analysis has been to obtain the required knowledge about the business, the industry and the society that all influence the future growth scenario. The conclusion on this underlying strategic analysis was that the industry is under pressure from both public health service providers and generic competitors. At the same time the potential marked for CNS products is increasing due to demographic changes and increasing income levels in more recent developed countries. This all together with a financial statement analysis, and a full information forecast make up a fundamental analysis that was leading to a valuation based on the Residual Income model and a valuation using comparison of multiples. The conclusion of the thesis is that the Lundbeck’s share must be considered slightly undervalued as the computed share price per 15. May 2011 of DKK 145 is 7% above the actual share price of DKK 135.60. The recommendation for potential investors is to accumulate the Lundbeck stock. Compared to the above mentioned recommendation from the largest Nordic bank Nordea, the stock must be considered having been significantly undervalued at 85 DKK with no events having major positive impact on the valuation since the recommendation was issued on 16. September. Keywords: H. Lundbeck A/S, Pharmaceutical Industry, Equity Valuation, Strategic analysis, Financial Statement Analysis, DuPont Analysis, Budgeting, WACC, Residual Income Model, Multiple analysis. CBS Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af H. Lundbeck A/S 2011 1 INDLEDENDE KAPITEL ..................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 INDLEDNING .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 BAGGRUND FOR OPGAVEN .................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 PROBLEMFORMULERING ....................................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 METODE OG AFGRÆNSNING .................................................................................................................................. 9 1.4.1 Opgavens formål ......................................................................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 Undersøgelsesdesign................................................................................................................................... 9 1.4.3 Dataindsamling ......................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4.4 Afgrænsning .............................................................................................................................................. 11 1.5 OPGAVENS STRUKTUR ......................................................................................................................................... 12 2 BESKRIVELSE AF LUNDBECK ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 H. LUNDBECKS HISTORIE .................................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 LUNDBECKS STRATEGI ........................................................................................................................................ 15 2.3 INTRODUKTION TIL LUNDBECKS MARKED ........................................................................................................... 16 2.4 LUNDBECKS MARKEDSFØRTE PRODUKTER .......................................................................................................... 18 3 STRATEGISK ANALYSE ................................................................................................................................... 20 3.1 ANALYSE AF DE MAKROØKONOMISKE OMGIVELSER ........................................................................................... 20 3.1.1 Political ..................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1.1 Offentlige sundhedsudgifter ................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1.2 Tilskud til medicin ................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.1.1.3 Offentlig prisregulering.......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1.2 Economical ............................................................................................................................................... 24 3.1.2.1 Substitution ............................................................................................................................................................ 24 3.1.2.2 Konjunktur ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 3.1.2.3 Valutarisici ............................................................................................................................................................. 25 3.1.3 Social ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.1.3.1 Demografiudvikling ............................................................................................................................................... 25 3.1.3.2 Psykisk sygdom som tabu ...................................................................................................................................... 27 3.1.4 Technological............................................................................................................................................ 28 3.1.4.1 Lægemiddelforskning ............................................................................................................................................ 28 3.1.4.2 Kirurgisk behandling af CNS sygdomme .............................................................................................................. 28 3.1.5 Environmental ........................................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.5.1 Energi ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.5.2 Farligt affald .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.6 Legal ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.6.1 Ændring af patentlovgivning ................................................................................................................................. 30 3.1.6.2 Juridiske tvister med generiske farmaceutiske virksomheder omkring patenter ................................................... 31 3.2 ANALYSE AF BRANCHEN ..................................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.1 Medicinal virksomheder ............................................................................................................................ 32 3.2.2 Læger ........................................................................................................................................................ 33 3.2.3 Patienter ................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.2.4 Offentlige
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