Economic Dynamics in the Malthusian Era: Evidence from the 1609 Spanish Expulsion of the Moriscos∗ Short title: Economic Dynamics in the Malthusian Era Eric Chaney and Richard Hornbeck May 2015 Abstract We investigate economic dynamics in the Malthusian era using the 1609 expulsion of Moriscos from Spain. Sharp population declines in former-Morisco districts were ac- companied by decreased output and increased per capita output. While these short-run results are consistent with standard Malthusian predictions, Malthusian convergence was delayed through 1786 in former-Morisco districts. Archival sources and historical accounts suggest extractive institutions and cultural differences may have contributed to delayed convergence in population and output per capita. This historic episode provides an unusually rich setting to examine Malthusian dynamics, highlighting the potential for sustained differences in per capita output in the Malthusian era. For the millennia prior to the demographic transition, models of economic growth focus on capturing \Malthusian dynamics." In this Malthusian era, technological growth or popu- lation declines are predicted to cause temporary increases in output per capita that dissipate as population grows and the land-to-labor ratio declines. Scholars have generally found empirical support for the traditional Malthusian predic- tions. In a recent contribution, Ashraf and Galor (2011) show that both land productivity and technology were historically related to population density rather than income per capita. Impacts of the European Black Death are also consistent with this framework (e.g., Phelps- Brown and Hopkins, 1981; Hatcher, 1996; Clark, 2005), although population and wages appear to converge slowly following this large population shock. ∗Eric Chaney,
[email protected], Littauer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138.