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Nongshim (004370 KS ) Domestic Weakness Vs

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Nongshim (004370 KS ) Domestic Weakness Vs Nongshim (004370 KS ) Domestic weakness vs. overseas growth Food & Beverage 3Q19 review: Growth in the US continues For 3Q19, Nongshim reported a 4.2% YoY increase in revenue and a 14.5% YoY decline in operating profit (W18.6bn; OP margin of 3.1%) on a consolidated basis (Korea, US, Results Comment China, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam). Operating profit was dragged down by: 1) November 14, 2019 increased marketing (advertising) spending due to ongoing competition in the domestic market; and 2) higher expenses related to expansion in China. In Korea, revenue inched up 0.6% YoY, and operating profit contracted 23.9% YoY (OP margin of 2.4%). By category, revenue growth was: 1) -0.6% for instan t noodles; 2) +3.7% for snacks; 3) +1.2% for beverages; 4) +10.1% for import brands; and 5) +4.3% for (Maintain) Buy exports. By instant noodle brand, revenue gained 2% for Shin Ramyun, 23% f or Chapagetti, and 7% for Yukgaejang, but revenue decreased for Ansungtangmyun and Target Price (12M, W) 320,000 Neoguri due to the impact of promotions by Paldo and Ottogi (007310 KS/Buy/TP: W960,000/CP: W572,000). Nongshim’s instant noodle market share slipped 0.7%p YoY to 54.4%. In beverages, sales of Baeksansoo grew 8.3% YoY, but sales of Capri Sun and Share Price (11/14/19, W) 243,000 Welch’s declined on unfavorable weather conditions (lower temperatures and frequent rainfall). Expected Return 32% At overseas subsidiaries (US, China, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam), revenue grew 17.3% YoY, but operating profit fell 11.7% YoY (OP margin of 5.8%). In the US, revenue and operating profit grew 23.4% and 57.1% YoY, respectively (OP margin of 4.3 %), OP (19F, Wbn) 85 aided by: 1) the expansion of key channels (Walmart [WMT US/CP: US$120.65], Costco [COST US/CP: US$304.59], Kroger [KR US/CP: US$26.91], etc.) and heavy pr omotions in Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 91 those channels; 2) expansion into the South (Dallas, Texas, etc.) ; and 3) more efficient promotional spending. EPS Growth (19F, %) -10.5 Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -32.1 In China, revenue increased 5.3% YoY thanks to a pickup in sales of core products (Shin P/E (19F, x) 19.6 Ramyun, Kimchi Ramyun, etc.), but operating profit slumped 41.9% YoY (OP margin of 5.7%), weighed down by expenses related to the move into the western region and Market P/E (19F, x) 14.3 marketing spending. Elsewhere, revenue grew 16.5% YoY in Japan and 13.6% YoY in KOSPI 2,139.23 Australia. Market Cap (Wbn) 1,478 Overseas growth to continue in 2020 Shares Outstanding (mn) 6 We expect Nongshim’s overseas business to continue growth and margin expansion . Free Float (%) 49.6 In the critical US market, Nongshim is focusing on: 1) broadening its product lineup in Foreign Ownership (%) 19.2 modern trade channels (Shin Ramyun Black, non-fried instant noodles, cup instant Beta (12M) 0.20 noodles , etc.); 2) securing shelf presence in all of the stores operated by Walmart, Costco, and Kroger; 3) expanding vendors in Dallas, Texas; and 4) increasing the 52-Week Low 222,500 number of non-Asian-American customers. 52-Week High 313,500 Nongshim has the second largest share in the US instant noodle market (worth (%) 1M 6M 12M US$1bn) and has seen its market share gradually increase. The company plans to Absolute -1.6 -11.3 3.4 invest US$200mn to build a second plant in the US to aid its expansion in the country, as well as Mexico and Canada. The company will break ground in 2020, with operation Relative -4.9 -13.7 0.0 targeted for end-2021. The second plant will measure 37.6 acres, three times the size of the first plant. For financing, half of the US$200mn will be capital investments from 160 Nongshim KOSPI Nongshim, and the other half will come from the US subsidiary’s ca sh reserves and 140 outside loans. The new plant will likely include four production lines: two for fried instant noodles (one packaged and one cup), one for dried noodles, and one for fresh 120 noodles. 100 Maintain Buy and TP of W320,000 80 At a 2019-20F P/B of 0.7x , we believe Nongshim is undervalued, given its growth in 11.18 3.19 7.19 11.19 overseas markets (US, China, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam) and its rise into a global brand. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ F&B ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 2,217 2,208 2,236 2,345 2,438 2,523 Woon -mok Baek +822 -3774 -1679 OP (Wbn) 90 96 89 85 96 103 [email protected] OP margin (%) 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.1 NP (Wbn) 199 91 84 75 93 94 EPS (W) 32,764 14,905 13,858 12,409 15,214 15,378 ROE (%) 11.6 5.0 4.5 3.9 4.7 4.6 P/E (x) 10.1 23.8 18.4 19.6 16.0 15.8 P/B (x) 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates November 14, 2019 Nongshim Table 1. 3Q19 review (Wbn, % ) 3Q19 Growth 3Q18 2Q19 Mirae Asset Actual Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 566 568 590 596 599 4.2 3.8 Operating profit 22 8 19 23 23 -14.5 126.4 Pretax profit 26 16 22 29 28 -15.5 41.6 Net profit 19 5 16 21 21 -17.1 247.3 OP margin 3.8 1.4 3.1 3.9 3.9 - - Net margin 3.4 0.8 2.7 3.6 3.6 - - Source: Company data, Quantiwise, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. 3Q19 earnings breakdown by region (Wbn, %) Revenue OP OP margin 3Q18 3Q19 YoY 3Q18 3Q19 YoY 3Q18 3Q19 Korea 444.2 447.0 0.6 14.2 10.8 -23.9 3.2 2.4 Subsidiaries 121.8 143.0 17.3 9.4 8.3 -11.7 7.7 5.8 China 41.9 44.1 5.3 4.3 2.5 -41.9 10.3 5.7 US 62.5 77.1 23.4 2.1 3.3 57.1 3.4 4.3 Japan 11.5 13.4 16.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 17.4 14.9 Australia 5.9 6.7 13.6 1.0 1.0 0.0 16.9 14.9 Vietnam 0.0 1.7 - 0.0 -0.5 - - - Other 0.0 -0.1 - -1.9 -0.5 - - - Total 566.0 589.9 4.2 21.7 18.6 -14.5 3.8 3.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 3. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 19F 20F 18 19F 20F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QF 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 589 568 590 598 610 589 618 621 2,236 2,345 2,438 Operating profit 32 8 19 27 34 11 24 27 89 85 96 Pretax profit 38 16 22 33 39 18 33 35 112 110 125 Net profit 29 5 16 26 29 14 24 26 84 75 93 OP margin 5.4 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.5 1.9 3.9 4.4 4.0 3.6 4.0 Net margin 4.9 0.8 2.7 4.3 4.7 2.3 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.2 3.8 Revenue growth 4.5 6.6 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.7 3.8 1.3 4.8 4.0 OP growth -8.1 26.9 -14.5 2.7 7.0 38.8 29.5 2.1 -8.1 -4.0 13.4 Pretax profit growth -8.5 33.7 -15.5 3.0 2.2 17.1 46.5 5.5 -6.0 -2.4 14.3 Net profit growth -9.4 -39.4 -17.1 2.3 -0.6 192.0 49.2 1.4 -7.0 -10.5 22.6 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 4. 2019-20 earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F Revenue 2,356 2,441 2,345 2,438 -0.5 -0.1 Operating profit 90 97 85 96 -5.4 -0.6 Pretax profit 116 125 110 125 -5.2 0.0 Net profit 80 93 75 93 -5.1 -0.7 OP margin 3.8 4.0 3.6 4.0 - - Net margin 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.8 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 November 14, 2019 Nongshim Figure 1. Nongshim’s ramen revenue Figure 2. Nongshim’s ramen ASP Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. Nongshim ’’’s ramen M/S (by value) Figure 4. Nongshim’s overseas revenue and OP (%) (Wbn) (Wbn) 80 700 Vietnam 30 Australia 75 600 Japan US 20 70 500 China OP (R) 65 400 10 60 300 55 200 0 50 100 45 0 -10 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F 20F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5.
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