Gywnedd Werdd October 2012 Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Report Document Verification Job title Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Job number 224123-00 Document title Final Report File reference Document ref 4.5 Revision Date Filename Document2 Draft 1 13 Apr Description First draft 2012 Prepared by Checked by Gwynedd Renewable Study v2.docx Jamie Morgan / Name Arup Team Simon Power Ann Cousins Signature Gwynedd 16 Jul Filename Renewable 2012 V2 Final draft incorporating all stakeholder comments Study v3 FINAL for ISSUE.doc Prepared by Checked by Approved by x Name Arup team Ann Cousins Simon Power Signature Issue Filename 14 Sep 2012 Incorporating final client comments Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Ann Cousins Ann Cousins Simon Power Signature Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Issue Document Verification with Document 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report Contents Page 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Gwynedd Werdd 4 1.2 Aim of the Study 4 1.3 Gwynedd Context and Study Area 5 1.4 Report Structure and Content 5 2 Policy Context and Existing Evidence Base 7 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 European Policy and Context 7 2.3 UK Policy Context 9 2.4 Welsh Policy and Context 11 2.5 Gwynedd and Local Policy Context 12 3 Socio-Economic Context 14 3.1 Introduction 14 3.2 Gwynedd Economic Profile 14 3.3 Renewable Energy Sector 17 3.4 Summary of Findings 20 4 Energy Supply and Demand Baseline 21 4.1 Introduction 21 4.2 Current Energy Demand 22 4.3 Future Energy Demand 25 4.4 Existing Non-Renewable Energy Generation in Gwynedd 28 4.5 Existing Renewable Energy Generation in Gwynedd 28 4.6 Summary and Analysis 32 5 Renewable Resource Assessment 34 5.1 Introduction 34 5.2 Methodology 34 5.3 Onshore Wind 36 5.4 Hydropower 38 5.5 Energy from Waste 40 5.6 Biomass 42 5.7 Microgeneration 45 5.8 Anaerobic Digestion 48 5.9 Tidal 52 5.10 Summary of Renewable Resources 53 5.11 Supply vs. Demand 53 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report 5.12 Opportunities Beyond Gwynedd 54 6 Deployment Rates and Potential 56 6.1 Introduction 56 6.2 Overarching Constraints to Deployment 56 6.3 Onshore Wind Clusters 56 6.4 Small-scale Hydropower 57 6.5 Energy from Waste 58 6.6 Biomass 58 6.7 Microgeneration 59 6.8 Anaerobic Digestion 62 6.9 Tidal 63 7 Economic Impact Assessment 65 7.1 Introduction 65 7.2 Methodology 65 7.3 Results 68 7.4 Wider Economic Benefits and Competitive Advantage 71 7.5 Economic and Market Barriers to Realising the Economic Benefits 72 7.6 Capturing Economic Benefits 74 7.7 Summary of Findings 75 8 Conclusions 76 8.1 Introduction 76 8.2 Renewable Resource 76 8.3 Constraints and Opportunities 76 8.4 Technology Priorities 78 8.5 Wider Opportunities for a Sustainable, Low Carbon Economy79 9 Action Plan 80 9.1 Overview 80 Delivery Plan 1: Technology Specific 84 Delivery Plan 3: Wider Economic Impact and Supply Chain 88 Delivery Plan 4: Finance and Governance 89 Delivery Plan 5: Planning and Sites 91 Delivery Plan 6: Community 93 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report Appendices Appendix A Case Studies Appendix B Calculation details Appendix C Workshop Reports Appendix D Employment Benchmarks Appendix E Policy Background Appendix F Figures Appendix G Consultees 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report 1 Introduction 1.1 Gwynedd Werdd Gwynedd Council’s Economy and Regeneration Programme Board has prioritised Gwynedd Werdd in order to achieve the objectives of Result 1 in their Three Year Plan: ‘Economic Prosperity – The economy of Gwynedd will prosper’. Gwynedd Council has a vision that Gwynedd will thrive in the future – with economically and socially enterprising and vibrant sustainable communities, where the Welsh language is central to its prosperity, and where people of all ages can take advantage of new opportunities and choose to stay in the area to live and work. Gwynedd Werdd has been developed as part of a package of programmes to achieve this vision. Gwynedd Werdd’s aim as part of the wider vision is promote “more self- sufficient sustainable communities, maximising the economic benefits from natural resources, local produce and services.” This is a long term aim, but action has been taken in the short term to promote: Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Local Produce Sustainable Transport Local Procurement This report forms part of the action on the first of those four short term priorities. 1.2 Aim of the Study Arup has been commissioned by Gwynedd Council, on behalf of Gwynedd Werdd to scope the renewable energy opportunities for Gwynedd. The prime objectives of the scoping exercise are: i. To determine the economic potential of renewable energy opportunities in Gwynedd; ii. To highlight barriers to achieving the economic potential of renewable energy opportunities in Gwynedd; and iii. To determine work streams and actions needed to overcome the barriers identified. The scope of the study specifically excludes consideration of low carbon generation, energy efficiency measures, and of energy related to transport. This does not mean that these areas (and others) could not contribute to creating jobs and tackling climate change in Gwynedd, but this study is to consider renewable electricity and heat only. This is not a planning document, although it may form part of the evidence base to inform future planning policy development. The planning process will still need to be adhered to for any future development. 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 Page 4 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report 1.3 Gwynedd Context and Study Area Gwynedd is a predominantly rural area, with a unique high quality natural environment, with a population of 121,900 (census 2011). There are a number of constraints imposed by designated landscapes in Gwynedd. A large proportion of the area of Gwynedd has been designated a landscape of national importance – the Snowdonia National Park and the Llŷn Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty – and there are many designated Sites of Special Scientific Interest and National Nature Reserves. Approximately 90% of the county’s coastal waters – Pen Llŷn and Sarnau and the Menai Straits – have been designated by the European Commission as maritime sites of international importance – Special Areas of Conservation. Approximately 63% of Gwynedd land area falls within Snowdonia National Park. One of the main purposes of Snowdonia National Park is the conservation and enhancement of the natural landscape, wildlife and cultural heritage of the National Park. The resource assessment and detailed economic analysis focuses on that which is available within the Local Authority boundary, including the area which is situated within Snowdonia National Park, and on the tidal opportunities off the coast at the end of the Llŷn peninsula. However, it is recognised that there will be wider economic opportunities as part of the supply chain to renewables projects planned for further afield. Some of these wider opportunities for cross-boundary collaboration are considered as part of the action plan. 1.4 Study Method This study was carried out by Arup between March and August 2012. The work was a combination of desk-based research, workshops and semi-structured stakeholder interviews. Desk-based research involved carrying out: i. A baseline of existing policy, existing renewable energy installed, and the socio- economic context of Gwynedd; ii. An assessment of the technically available renewable resource, using two methodologies: Welsh Government Practice Guidance: Planning for Renewable and Low Carbon Energy - A Toolkit for Planners (June 2010, referred to as the “Welsh Government Toolkit”). Where appropriate, reference was also made to the DECC / SQW Energy guidance, Renewable and Low-carbon Energy Capacity Methodology: Methodology for the English Regions (January 2010, referred to as “the DECC methodology”). Any sites shown as having potential for renewable energy generation were analysed purely through desk study. Further work would be required to determine their acceptability and feasibility. iii. An assessment of the economic potential of the technically available resource, using The jobs per MW benchmarks are taken from a 2004 Department for Trade and Industry report entitled ‘Renewable Supply Chain Gap Analysis’. 4.5 | Issue | 14 September 2012 Page 5 J:\224XXX\224123-00\4.50_REPORTS\GWYNEDD RENEWABLE STUDY FINAL FOR ISSUE 14.12.DOCX Gwynedd Council Scoping Renewable Energy Opportunities in Gwynedd Final Report iv. A review of barriers and constraints to deployment of renewable energy. Two workshops were held with local stakeholder representatives from local authorities, private sector, community groups, higher education and other public sector bodies to gather their understanding of the local context, barrier and constraints and the main areas of opportunity for Gwynedd. In addition, semi-structured interviews took place face-to-face and over the telephone with stakeholders who were unable to attend the workshops to enable their views to be incorporated. 1.5 Report Structure and Content Findings and baseline data from this scoping exercise are presented in the following report, the structure of which is as follows: Chapter 2 provides a summary of existing and emerging policy frameworks relating to renewable energy and the economics of renewable energy at the national, regional and local level.