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EQUITIES Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) AUTOS 25 February 2016 EQUITIES Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) AUTOS Buy: Don’t just focus on FX; still on track to grow in 2016 China Investors should not only focus on the FX loss arising from MAINTAIN BUY EUR debt The two Japanese JVs have a relatively better model cycle TARGET PRICE (HKD) PREVIOUS TARGET (HKD) versus its peers in 2016e 11.40 12.70 Reiterate Buy with TP cut to HKD11.4 from HKD12.7 SHARE PRICE (HKD) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE 9.77 +16.7% (as of 23 Feb 2016) Net FX loss arising from EUR debt. We estimate that the company had EUR1.3bn debt outstanding as at end-2015 and could incur RMB1.55bn FX loss in 2016e MARKET DATA assuming the RMB would depreciate 17% against the EUR in 2016, per HSBC FX Market cap (HKDm) 84,510 Free float 33% Market cap (USDm) 10,875 BBG 489 HK Research team’s forecast. Some of the negative impact should be partially offset by the 3m ADTV (USDm) 18.3 RIC 0489.HK share of income from Peugeot SA (PSA). We forecast the company to have EUR210m FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (RMB) (~RMB1.7bn) share of associate income from its 14.1% stake in PSA in 2016e. Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e HSBC EPS 1.32 1.34 1.23 1.54 Japanese JVs still on growth track in 2016e. Both DF Nissan and DF Honda had HSBC EPS (prev) - 1.34 1.47 1.56 brand new models and model changeovers in 2H15, such as Nissan compact SUV Change (%) - 0.1 -16.2 -1.4 Consensus EPS 1.46 1.58 1.86 1.70 Qashqai and Honda sub-compact sedan Griez. We raise our 2016 volume forecast PE (x) 6.2 6.1 6.7 5.3 for DF Nissan and DF Honda by 5% and 3%, respectively, and expect these models Dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 -2.1 -5.5 -8.4 to drive volume growth of 6% and 13% for DF Nissan and DF Honda in 2016e, ROE (%) 15.4 13.3 10.8 12.1 respectively. 52-WEEK PRICE (HKD) SUVs to drive DF domestic brands’ volume growth. Benefitting from the decent 15.00 reception of SUV AX7, DF Fengshen sales volume grew 18% y-o-y to 95k units in 10.55 2015. We expect the sub-compact SUV AX3 launched at year-end 2015 to be a 6.10 driver for the 35% y-o-y growth in 2016e. This shows that the increasing collaboration Feb 15 Aug 15 Feb 16 with PSA has been positive to the domestic brands. This could be a longer-term Target price: 11.40 High: 13.98 Low: 7.05 Current: 9.77 growth driver for Dongfeng. Source: HSBC estimates, Thomson Reuters IBES DF Renault not as bad as it seems. With only 150 outlets at the beginning of 2016, Carson Ng* we expect the utilisation of the 150k units per annum plant to be low in the first year Analyst of operation. However, as DF Renault and DF Nissan share the same Common The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited [email protected] Module Family (CMF) architecture, we believe the new JV could benefit from DF +852 2996 6625 Nissan’s procurement scale of close to 1m units volume in China. Therefore, we don’t Mike Yip* expect the JV to incur a large loss at the initial stage of operation. Associate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Reiterate Buy but TP cut to HKD11.4 from HKD12.7. We revise our earnings forecasts [email protected] by -1.7%/-16.2% in 2015e/16e to reflect the increased volume assumption offset by the +852 2996 6942 net FX loss. Our earnings forecasts are 22% below consensus in 2016e as we think *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is consensus has yet to factor in the negative FX impact. Investors should not only focus on not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations the FX impact as we believe the company offers stable growth through an improving product cycle for its two key Japanese JVs. We roll over our valuation to 2016e and our target valuation of 8.2x 2016e PE is based on the five-year average PE of Dongfeng. Disclaimer & Disclosures Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Banking Corporation Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com EQUITIES AUTOS 25 February 2016 abc Financials & valuation Financial statements Valuation data Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Profit & loss summary (CNYm) PE* 6.2 6.2 6.7 5.3 Revenue 80,954 130,346 139,198 143,781 PB 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 EBITDA 2,283 2,726 2,972 3,182 Dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.8 Depreciation & amortisation -1,540 -1,520 -1,640 -1,790 * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted) Operating profit/EBIT 743 1,206 1,331 1,393 Net interest 1,189 1,025 -905 762 PBT 14,683 13,149 12,240 15,229 Price relative HSBC PBT 14,683 13,149 12,240 15,229 Taxation -1,365 -1,015 -1,066 -1,185 16.00 16.00 Net profit 12,845 11,381 10,586 13,268 14.00 14.00 HSBC net profit 11,336 11,381 10,586 13,268 Cash flow summary (CNYm) 12.00 12.00 Cash flow from operations -901 5,112 2,819 1,217 10.00 10.00 Capex -3,407 -2,489 -2,925 -3,140 8.00 8.00 Cash flow from investment -696 4,109 5,326 5,693 Dividends -1,582 -1,723 -1,707 -1,588 6.00 6.00 Change in net debt 7,558 -12,628 -6,438 -5,322 2014 2015 2016 2017 Dongfeng Motor Rel to HSCEI FCF equity -2,943 865 -710 -860 Source: HSBC Balance sheet summary (CNYm) Note: Priced at close of 23 Feb 2016 Intangible fixed assets 4,411 4,653 4,942 5,260 Tangible fixed assets 22,490 22,898 24,648 26,509 Current assets 69,157 89,192 99,926 109,279 Cash & others 28,559 41,342 47,780 53,102 Total assets 145,473 169,782 186,789 203,347 Operating liabilities 52,311 62,321 68,309 72,274 Gross debt 17,710 17,865 17,865 17,865 Net debt -10,849 -23,477 -29,915 -35,237 Shareholders' funds 73,829 87,220 97,651 109,469 Invested capital 15,188 13,080 13,427 15,672 Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Y-o-y % change Revenue 117.3 61.0 6.8 3.3 EBITDA 19.4 9.0 7.1 Operating profit 62.3 10.4 4.6 PBT 37.1 -10.4 -6.9 24.4 HSBC EPS 28.4 0.4 -7.0 25.3 Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) 6.5 9.2 10.5 9.9 ROIC 7.3 9.8 11.4 11.1 ROE 15.4 13.0 10.8 12.1 ROA 9.8 7.6 7.2 7.3 EBITDA margin 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 Operating profit margin 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 EBITDA/net interest (x) 3.3 Net debt/equity -14.7 -26.9 -30.6 -32.2 Net debt/EBITDA (x) -4.8 -8.6 -10.1 -11.1 CF from operations/net debt Per share data (CNY) EPS reported (diluted) 1.49 1.32 1.23 1.54 HSBC EPS (diluted) 1.32 1.32 1.23 1.54 DPS 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.23 Book value 8.57 10.12 11.33 12.71 2 EQUITIES AUTOS 25 February 2016 abc Analysis Investors should not only focus on the FX loss arising from the euro debt The two Japanese JVs have relatively better model cycle versus its peers in 2016e Reiterate Buy with TP revised to HKD11.4 (from HKD12.7) Product line-up of major entities of Dongfeng DF Nissan DF Honda DF Peugeot DF Citroen DF Fengshen DF Renault Sub-compact sedan March, N/3Q10 Greiz, N/4Q15 C2, N/4Q06 Fluence ZE EV, N/2017 Venucia R30, N/3Q14 Greiz Hatchback, N/2016 Compact sedan Livina, S/2Q13 Civic, S/4Q11 308, N/4Q11 Elysee, S/3Q13 A60, N/1Q12 Sylphy, S/2Q12 Ciimo, N/2Q12 301, N/4Q13 C4L, N/4Q12 H30, N/1Q10 Tiida, S/2Q11 Civic, N/1H16 408, N/1Q10 C-Quatre, S/1Q12 H30 Crossover, N/1Q11 Sunny, S/1Q11 408, S/Aug-14 S30, N/3Q09 Venucia D50, N/2Q12 308S, S/Apr-15 A30, N/Aug-14 Venucia R50, N/3Q12 308, S/2H16 L60, N/Mar-15 Venucia R50X, N/3Q13 Lannia, N/4Q15 Mid-size sedan Teana, S/1Q13 Spirior, N/4Q09 508, N/3Q11 C5, N/2012 Dongfeng No.1, N/1Q16 Infiniti Q50L, N/Nov-14 Spirior, S/Nov-14 508, S/2017 C6, N/2016 Maxima, N/2016 Sub-compact SUV XR-V, N/late 14 2008, N/Apr-14 AX3, N/2016 Compact SUV Qashqai, N/1Q08 CR-V, S/1Q12 3008, N/1Q13 C3-XR, N/late 2014 AX7, N/Nov-14 Kadjar, N/1Q16 X Trail, S/Mar-14 CR-V, S/2017 AX5, N/2016 Venucia T70, N/Jan-15 Qashqai, S/4Q15 Mid-size SUV Murano, N/3Q11 Concept D, N/2016 4008, N/2H16 TBC, N/2017 Koleos, N/3Q15 Murano, S/3Q15 Infiniti QX50L, N/Mar-15 MPV Elysion, N/2Q12 Scenic, N/2017 Jade, N/3Q13 Elysion, S/1Q16 Source: Company data, HSBC Impact of FX HSBC FX Research team forecasts the euro to appreciate 16.8% against the RMB in 2016e Based on this assumption, we expect Dongfeng to incur 2016e FX loss of RMB1.5bn, which is booked in the finance cost, due to its EUR1.3bn debt exposure The FX loss is partially compensated by the share of net profit from the 14.1% stake in Peugeot SA.
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