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GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1

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GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1 Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1 January 6, 2020 PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST Preliminary Ratings Jennie P Lam New York Preliminary amount Legal final (1) 212-438-2524 Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i) (mil. $) maturity jennie.lam A-1 A-1+ (sf) Senior Fixed 254.00 Jan. 19, 2021 @spglobal.com A-2-A/A-2-B(ii) AAA (sf) Senior Fixed/floating 426.00 Jan. 17, 2023 SECONDARY CONTACT A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 426.00 Sept. 16, 2024 Kenneth D Martens New York A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 89.69 March 17, 2025 (1) 212-438-7327 B AA+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed 20.31 April 16, 2025 kenneth.martens @spglobal.com C AA (sf) Subordinate Fixed 19.05 May 16, 2025 D(iii) AA- (sf) Subordinate Fixed 15.87 April 16, 2026 Note: This presale report is based on information as of Jan. 6, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The tranches' coupons will be determined on the pricing date. (ii)The class A-2 notes may be split into fixed-rate class A-2-A and floating-rate class A-2-B notes. The sizes of classes A-2-A and A-2-B will be determined at pricing. If the class A-2-B notes are issued, the issuing entity does not expect the initial principal balance of the class A-2-B notes to exceed $224.55 million. The class A-2-B coupon will be one-month LIBOR plus a spread to be determined during pricing. (iii)The class D notes will initially be retained by the depositor or an affiliate. Profile Expected closing date Jan. 15, 2020. Collateral Prime auto loan receivables. Sponsor and servicer AmeriCredit Financial Services Inc., doing business as GM Financial, a subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc. (BBB/Stable/--). Depositor AFS SenSub Corp. Issuer GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1. Trustee and trust collateral The Bank of New York Mellon (AA-/Stable/A-1+). agent Owner trustee Wilmington Trust Co. (A/Stable/A-1). Structuring agent and lead Wells Fargo Securities LLC. underwriter www.standardandpoors.com January 6, 2020 1 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2363828 on the last page. Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1 Credit Enhancement Summary (%) GMCAR 2020-1 GMCAR 2019-4 (i) GMCAR 2019-3 Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii) Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii) Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii) Class A Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Subordination 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 Total 6.10 6.60 6.60 6.10 6.60 6.60 6.10 6.60 6.60 Class B Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Subordination 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 Total 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 Class C Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Subordination 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 Total 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 Class D Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Subordination 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 1.75 2.25 2.25 1.75 2.25 2.25 1.75 2.25 2.25 Additional enhancement YSOA discount rate 4.00 -- -- 4.00 -- -- 4.25 -- -- (initial) (%) YSOA discount rate 3.50 -- -- 3.50 -- -- 3.75 -- -- (after class A-2-B notes are fully repaid) (%) Initial YSOA ($) 34,273,289 -- -- 22,447,862 -- -- 23,673,482 -- -- YSOA(ii) 2.70 -- -- 2.21 -- -- 2.33 -- -- Estimated annual 3.18 -- -- -- -- -- 2.96 -- -- excess spread(iii) Initial aggregate 1,304,237,246 -- -- 1,039,585,633 -- -- 1,039,361,022 -- -- receivables balance ($) Initial adjusted 1,269,963,957 -- -- 1,017,137,801 -- -- 1,015,687,540 -- -- receivables balance ($) Total securities ($) 1,250,920,000 -- -- 1,001,890,000 -- -- 1,000,460,000 -- -- (i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. (ii)Percentage of the initial adjusted receivables balance. (iii)Estimated annual excess spread shown for series 2020-1 is before pricing and for series 2019-3, after pricing. Includes the 1.00% annual servicing fee. Annual excess spread is adjusted for yield supplement overcollateralization. GMCAR--GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust. YSOA--Yield supplement overcollateralization amount. www.standardandpoors.com January 6, 2020 2 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2363828 on the last page. Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1 Rationale The preliminary ratings assigned to GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1's (GMCAR 2020-1's) $1.25 billion automobile receivables-backed notes reflect: - The availability of approximately 9.0%, 7.8%, 6.6%, and 5.6% credit support for the class A-1, A-2, A-3, A-4 (collectively, class A), B, C, and D notes, respectively (based on stressed cash flow scenarios, including excess spread). These credit support levels provide coverage of more than 5.00x, 4.50x, 4.00x, and 3.67x our 1.00%-1.20% expected cumulative net loss range for the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively, and are commensurate with the assigned preliminary 'A-1+ (sf)' and 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', 'AA (sf)', and 'AA- (sf)' ratings (see the S&P Global Ratings' Expected Loss and Cash Flow Modeling sections). - The timely interest and full principal payments made under the stressed cash flow modeling scenarios appropriate for the assigned preliminary ratings (see the Cash Flow Modeling section). In our modeling approach, we used a bifurcated pool method, in which the subvened loans prepay and default at lower rates than the nonsubvened loans. (For cash flow purposes, the subvened/nonsubvened cut-off annual percentage rate [APR] is 4.0%.) - Our expectation that under a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario (2.0x our expected loss level), all else being equal, our preliminary 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', and 'AA (sf)' ratings on the class A, B, and C notes, respectively, are not likely to be lowered during the transaction's life, and our preliminary 'AA- (sf)' rating on the class D notes is likely to remain within one rating category while it is outstanding. These potential rating movements are within the tolerances outlined in our credit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," published May 3, 2010). - The transaction's credit enhancement in the form of subordinated notes, a nonamortizing reserve account, overcollateralization that builds to a target level, a yield supplement overcollateralization amount (YSOA), and excess spread (see the Credit Enhancement Summary table above). - The collateral characteristics of the securitized pool. - Our view of the transaction's payment and legal structures. Changes From GMCAR 2019-3 and 2019-4 The series 2020-1 collateral pool's credit quality appears to be generally similar to GMCAR 2019-4, which S&P Global Ratings did not rate. Structural changes from GMCAR 2019-4 include that the initial YSOA amount as a percentage of the initial adjusted pool balance increased to approximately 2.7% from 2.2%. The collateral composition changes from GMCAR 2019-4 include: - The percentage of new vehicles decreased to 87.9% from 90.5%; - The percentage of loans with original term of 61-75 months increased to 82.0% from 80.0%; - The percentage of loans with original term of 73-75 months decreased to 14.9% from 16.7%; and - The WA LTV ratio increased to 91.2% from 88.0%. Compared to series 2019-3, which S&P Global Ratings rated, notable structural and collateral www.standardandpoors.com January 6, 2020 3 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2363828 on the last page. Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1 changes include: - The initial YSOA discount rate decreased to 4.00% from 4.25%; - The YSOA discount rate after the class A-2 notes are fully repaid decreased to 3.50% from 3.75%; - The collateral pool's weighted average FICO decreased slightly to 773 from 775; - The weighted average seasoning increased to approximately 9.0 months from 7.6 months; - The percentage of loans with an original term greater than 60 months and up to 75 months increased to 82.0% from 75.9%; however, the percentage of loans with an original term of 72-75 months decreased to 14.9% from 17.5%; and - The weighted average LTV increased to 91.2% from 88.4%.
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