GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1

Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1

January 6, 2020

PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST

Preliminary Ratings Jennie P Lam New York Preliminary amount Legal final (1) 212-438-2524 Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i) (mil. $) maturity jennie.lam A-1 A-1+ (sf) Senior Fixed 254.00 Jan. 19, 2021 @spglobal.com

A-2-A/A-2-B(ii) AAA (sf) Senior Fixed/floating 426.00 Jan. 17, 2023 SECONDARY CONTACT

A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 426.00 Sept. 16, 2024 Kenneth D Martens New York A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 89.69 March 17, 2025 (1) 212-438-7327 B AA+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed 20.31 April 16, 2025 kenneth.martens @spglobal.com C AA (sf) Subordinate Fixed 19.05 May 16, 2025

D(iii) AA- (sf) Subordinate Fixed 15.87 April 16, 2026

Note: This presale report is based on information as of Jan. 6, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The tranches' coupons will be determined on the pricing date. (ii)The class A-2 notes may be split into fixed-rate class A-2-A and floating-rate class A-2-B notes. The sizes of classes A-2-A and A-2-B will be determined at pricing. If the class A-2-B notes are issued, the issuing entity does not expect the initial principal balance of the class A-2-B notes to exceed $224.55 million. The class A-2-B coupon will be one-month LIBOR plus a spread to be determined during pricing. (iii)The class D notes will initially be retained by the depositor or an affiliate.

Profile

Expected closing date Jan. 15, 2020.

Collateral Prime auto loan receivables.

Sponsor and servicer AmeriCredit Financial Services Inc., doing business as GM Financial, a subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc. (BBB/Stable/--).

Depositor AFS SenSub Corp.

Issuer GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1.

Trustee and trust collateral The Bank of New York Mellon (AA-/Stable/A-1+). agent

Owner trustee Wilmington Trust Co. (A/Stable/A-1).

Structuring agent and lead Wells Fargo Securities LLC. underwriter

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© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2363828 on the last page. Presale: GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1

Credit Enhancement Summary (%)

GMCAR 2020-1 GMCAR 2019-4 (i) GMCAR 2019-3

Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii) Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii) Initial(ii) Target(ii) Floor(ii)

Class A

Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Subordination 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35

Total 6.10 6.60 6.60 6.10 6.60 6.60 6.10 6.60 6.60

Class B

Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Subordination 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75

Total 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 5.00 5.00

Class C

Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Subordination 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25

Total 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 3.50

Class D

Overcollateralization 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Subordination 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total 1.75 2.25 2.25 1.75 2.25 2.25 1.75 2.25 2.25

Additional enhancement

YSOA discount rate 4.00 -- -- 4.00 -- -- 4.25 -- -- (initial) (%)

YSOA discount rate 3.50 -- -- 3.50 -- -- 3.75 -- -- (after class A-2-B notes are fully repaid) (%)

Initial YSOA ($) 34,273,289 -- -- 22,447,862 -- -- 23,673,482 -- --

YSOA(ii) 2.70 -- -- 2.21 -- -- 2.33 -- --

Estimated annual 3.18 ------2.96 -- -- excess spread(iii)

Initial aggregate 1,304,237,246 -- -- 1,039,585,633 -- -- 1,039,361,022 -- -- receivables balance ($)

Initial adjusted 1,269,963,957 -- -- 1,017,137,801 -- -- 1,015,687,540 -- -- receivables balance ($)

Total securities ($) 1,250,920,000 -- -- 1,001,890,000 -- -- 1,000,460,000 -- --

(i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. (ii)Percentage of the initial adjusted receivables balance. (iii)Estimated annual excess spread shown for series 2020-1 is before pricing and for series 2019-3, after pricing. Includes the 1.00% annual servicing fee. Annual excess spread is adjusted for yield supplement overcollateralization. GMCAR--GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust. YSOA--Yield supplement overcollateralization amount.

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Rationale

The preliminary ratings assigned to GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust 2020-1's (GMCAR 2020-1's) $1.25 billion automobile receivables-backed notes reflect:

- The availability of approximately 9.0%, 7.8%, 6.6%, and 5.6% credit support for the class A-1, A-2, A-3, A-4 (collectively, class A), B, C, and D notes, respectively (based on stressed cash flow scenarios, including excess spread). These credit support levels provide coverage of more than 5.00x, 4.50x, 4.00x, and 3.67x our 1.00%-1.20% expected cumulative net loss range for the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively, and are commensurate with the assigned preliminary 'A-1+ (sf)' and 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', 'AA (sf)', and 'AA- (sf)' ratings (see the S&P Global Ratings' Expected Loss and Cash Flow Modeling sections).

- The timely interest and full principal payments made under the stressed cash flow modeling scenarios appropriate for the assigned preliminary ratings (see the Cash Flow Modeling section). In our modeling approach, we used a bifurcated pool method, in which the subvened loans prepay and default at lower rates than the nonsubvened loans. (For cash flow purposes, the subvened/nonsubvened cut-off annual percentage rate [APR] is 4.0%.)

- Our expectation that under a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario (2.0x our expected loss level), all else being equal, our preliminary 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', and 'AA (sf)' ratings on the class A, B, and C notes, respectively, are not likely to be lowered during the transaction's life, and our preliminary 'AA- (sf)' rating on the class D notes is likely to remain within one rating category while it is outstanding. These potential rating movements are within the tolerances outlined in our credit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," published May 3, 2010).

- The transaction's credit enhancement in the form of subordinated notes, a nonamortizing reserve account, overcollateralization that builds to a target level, a yield supplement overcollateralization amount (YSOA), and excess spread (see the Credit Enhancement Summary table above).

- The collateral characteristics of the securitized pool.

- Our view of the transaction's payment and legal structures.

Changes From GMCAR 2019-3 and 2019-4

The series 2020-1 collateral pool's credit quality appears to be generally similar to GMCAR 2019-4, which S&P Global Ratings did not rate.

Structural changes from GMCAR 2019-4 include that the initial YSOA amount as a percentage of the initial adjusted pool balance increased to approximately 2.7% from 2.2%.

The collateral composition changes from GMCAR 2019-4 include:

- The percentage of new vehicles decreased to 87.9% from 90.5%;

- The percentage of loans with original term of 61-75 months increased to 82.0% from 80.0%;

- The percentage of loans with original term of 73-75 months decreased to 14.9% from 16.7%; and

- The WA LTV ratio increased to 91.2% from 88.0%.

Compared to series 2019-3, which S&P Global Ratings rated, notable structural and collateral

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changes include:

- The initial YSOA discount rate decreased to 4.00% from 4.25%;

- The YSOA discount rate after the class A-2 notes are fully repaid decreased to 3.50% from 3.75%;

- The collateral pool's weighted average FICO decreased slightly to 773 from 775;

- The weighted average seasoning increased to approximately 9.0 months from 7.6 months;

- The percentage of loans with an original term greater than 60 months and up to 75 months increased to 82.0% from 75.9%; however, the percentage of loans with an original term of 72-75 months decreased to 14.9% from 17.5%; and

- The weighted average LTV increased to 91.2% from 88.4%.

Overall, the series 2020-1 collateral pool, in our opinion, is comparable to series 2019-3 and recent earlier transactions (please see the Pool Analysis section for the collateral pool comparison to 2019-3 and prior GMCAR pools). Hence, our expected cumulative net loss is 1.00%-1.20% for GMCAR 2020-1, unchanged from the previous series.

Transaction Overview

GMCAR 2020-1 is GM Financial's 12th prime auto loan securitization and ninth public transaction. GMCAR 2020-1 will issue automobile receivables-backed notes that will be backed by a pool of prime automobile loan contracts secured by new and used automobiles, light-duty trucks, and utility vehicles.

The transaction is structured as a true sale of the receivables from GM Financial to AFS SenSub Corp. (AFS; the depositor). Through this true sale, AFS will sell the acquired assets to the trust, a bankruptcy-remote special-purpose entity, which will pledge its interest in the receivables to the trustee on the noteholders' behalf (see chart 1).

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Chart 1

Interest and principal on the notes are scheduled to be paid on the 16th day of each month, or, if not a business day, then on the next business day, beginning Feb. 18, 2020. The notes will receive principal sequentially and will be paid a fixed interest rate, except for the class A-2-B notes, which will receive a fixed spread tied to a benchmark (initially one-month LIBOR). The rated notes will total approximately $1.25 billion. The class D notes will initially be retained by the depositor or an affiliate of the depositor (see the Transaction Structure section).

In rating this transaction, we will review the relevant legal matters and opinions outlined in our criteria.

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Transaction Structure

The GMCAR 2020-1 transaction incorporates the following structural features:

- A sequential payment structure in which the subordinated classes will provide nonamortizing credit enhancement to the senior classes.

- Notes that pay a fixed interest rate, except for the class A-2-B notes, which pay a floating interest rate tied to one-month LIBOR. The exact amounts of the class A-2-A and A-2-B notes will be determined at pricing with a maximum initial principal balance of $224.55 million for the class A-2-B notes.

- An initial 1.5% overcollateralization amount (minus YSOA) that will build to a target of 2.0% of the initial adjusted pool balance.

- A fully funded nonamortizing reserve account that will equal 0.3% of the initial adjusted pool balance.

- A YSOA that initially will equal 2.7% of the initial adjusted pool balance (2.6% of the initial aggregate pool balance) and will be calculated each month as the pool amortizes based on the difference between the aggregate receivables balance outstanding and the present value of the receivables balance, discounted at the greater of 4.0% per year or the receivables' actual APR. The YSOA is sized so that the yield on the contracts with APRs below the YSOA-required rate is raised to the required rate, which is 4.0% while the class A-2-B notes are outstanding and 3.5% after the class A-2-B notes are fully repaid. If no class A-2-B notes are issued, the YSOA required rate will step down to 3.5% on the first distribution date and remain at this level for each period thereafter.

- Excess spread, to the extent available after covering net losses, which pays principal on the outstanding notes to build credit enhancement to the target level.

Payment Structure

Interest and principal are scheduled to be paid on the rated notes on each monthly distribution date. The payment priority, before an acceleration of the notes following an event of default, dictates how the available auto loan collections will be used to make the distributions in table 1. In addition, the reserve account's funds will be available to cover interest shortfalls, pay priority principal, and pay principal that is due on the notes' final maturity dates.

Table 1

Payment Waterfall

Priority Payment

1 To the servicer, the 1.0% servicing fee, any supplemental servicing fees, any reimbursements for mistaken deposits and other related amounts, and certain other amounts due on the auto loan contracts that the servicer is entitled to retain. To GM Financial, amounts deposited into the collection account that are not related to interest, principal, or extension fees due on the auto loan contracts.

2 To the trustee, owner trustee, trust collateral agent, and the asset representations reviewer, any due and unpaid fees, expenses, and indemnities, each capped annually.

3 Interest on the class A notes, which will be paid pari passu to the class A-1, A-2, A-3, and A-4 noteholders.

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Table 1

Payment Waterfall (cont.)

Priority Payment

4 First priority principal distribution amount (the amount by which the class A note balance exceeds the adjusted pool balance), if any, provided that for the final scheduled distribution date of any of the class A notes, the first priority principal distribution amount will equal the amount necessary to reduce the outstanding principal amount of the affected class A notes to zero.

5 Interest on the class B notes.

6 Second priority principal distribution amount (the amount by which the combined principal balance of the class A notes and class B notes exceeds the adjusted pool balance), if any, provided that for the final scheduled distribution date of the class B notes, the second priority principal distribution amount will equal the amount necessary to reduce the outstanding principal amount of the class B notes to zero.

7 Interest on the class C notes.

8 Third priority principal distribution amount (the amount by which the combined principal balance of the class A, B, and C notes exceeds the adjusted pool balance), if any, provided that for the final scheduled distribution date of the class C notes, the third priority principal distribution amount will equal the amount necessary to reduce the outstanding principal amount of the class C notes to zero.

9 Interest, if any, on the class D notes.

10 Fourth priority principal distribution amount (the amount by which the combined principal balance of the class A, B, C, and D notes exceeds the adjusted pool balance), if any, provided that for the final scheduled distribution date of the class D notes, the third priority principal distribution amount will equal the amount necessary to reduce the outstanding principal amount of the class D notes to zero.

11 To the reserve account, the amount necessary to cause the amount deposited therein to equal the specified reserve account amount.

12 To pay principal to achieve the specified overcollateralization amount.

13 To the trustee, owner trustee, trust collateral agent and asset representations reviewer, any fees, expenses, and indemnities due that exceed the related cap or annual limitation on each.

14 All remaining amounts to the certificateholder.

Managed Portfolio

As of Sept. 30, 2019, GM Financial's total retail portfolio, consisting of its full spectrum loan originations (prime and subprime) increased by approximately 13.0% to $36.75 billion from $32.64 billion as of Sept. 30, 2018. Total 30-plus-day delinquencies decreased to 4.09% as of Sept. 30, 2019, from 4.78% as of Sept. 30, 2018. Annualized net credit loss as a percentage of average retail finance receivables decreased to 1.34% for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2019, from 1.73% for the same period in 2018 (see table 2).

GM Financial's portfolio has shown significant improvement since 2013, largely due to the inclusion of prime loan originations beginning in the second-half 2014. Since 2014, as GM Financial steadily increased its share of the GM prime loan market, the performance reflects the migration to higher-credit-quality loans.

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Table 2

Managed Portfolio

Nine months ended Sept. 30 Year ended Dec. 31

2019 2018 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Retail finance receivables portfolio at end of 36.75 32.64 35.36 27.57 21.79 18.16 13.41 11.49 10.99 period ($ bil.)

Average retail finance receivables ($ bil.) 36.76 29.84 30.90 25.57 19.78 15.69 12.20 11.33 10.42

Period of delinquencies (%)

31-60 days 3.10 3.67 3.54 4.52 5.28 6.33 7.41 7.47 6.12

61-90 days 0.70 0.77 0.80 0.91 1.14 1.17 1.27 1.31 1.06

91 days or more 0.28 0.34 0.35 0.68 0.84 0.98 1.18 1.25 1.03

Total delinquencies as % of the portfolio 4.09 4.78 4.68 6.11 7.26 8.48 9.86 10.04 8.21

Total repossessed assets as % of the 0.13 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.19 0.23 0.27 0.33 0.28 portfolio

Net credit loss ($ bil.) 0.37 0.39 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.41 0.37 0.31 0.25

Net credit losses as % of average retail 1.34 1.73 1.72 2.03 2.59 2.63 3.07 2.74 2.46 finance receivables (annualized)

GM Financial Prime Originations

GM Financial's portfolio of prime auto loan originations show generally improved collateral characteristics since inception in July 2014. The WA FICO has steadily increased to around 747, while WA LTV has decreased to under 100%. Used vehicles percentage has also decreased from a high of 45.0% in fourth-quarter 2014 (see charts 2 and 3).

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Chart 2

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Chart 3

Pool Analysis

The GMCAR 2020-1 collateral pool consists of 48,929 prime auto loan contracts with an aggregate outstanding balance of $1.30 billion (see table 3). The pool is geographically diverse and has a WA FICO score of 773, WA seasoning of approximately nine months, and a WA LTV of 91.2%. Approximately 87.9% of the loans are backed by new vehicles. The longest loan term is 75 months.

The credit quality of the collateral pools has generally remained consistent over time.

Table 3

Collateral Characteristics(i)

GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR 2020-1 2019-4 (ii) 2019-3 2019-2 2019-1(ii) 2018-4 2018-3

Pool size (bil. $) 1.304 1.040 1.039 1.295 1.318 1.347 1.358

No. of receivables 48,929 37,076 38,151 46,946 45,890 44,800 44,700

Avg. principal balance 26,656 28,039 27,243 27,583 28,731 30,069 30,378 ($)

Weighted avg. APR (%) 5.11 5.28 5.13 5.37 4.92 4.01 3.35

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Table 3

Collateral Characteristics(i) (cont.)

GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR GMCAR 2020-1 2019-4 (ii) 2019-3 2019-2 2019-1(ii) 2018-4 2018-3

Weighted avg. original 69 69 68 68 68 69 68 term (mos.)

Weighted avg. 60 60 61 62 63 64 62 remaining term (mos.)

Weighted avg. 9 9 8 6 5 4 6 seasoning (mos.)

Weighted avg. FICO 773 774 775 777 778 775 770 score

Weighted avg. LTV ratio 91 88 88 87 87 90 95 (%)

% of pool balance with 67.14 63.35 58.33 57.25 57.95 65.41 61.08 an original term of 61-72 months

% of pool balance with 14.89 16.68 17.54 14.68 14.08 12.16 12.15 an original term of 73-75 months

New vehicles (%) 88 90 87 86 88 88 83

Used vehicles (%) 12 10 13 14 12 12 17

Top three state concentrations (%)

TX=13.69 TX=15.54 TX=14.59 TX=14.18 TX=13.99 TX=14.79 TX=15.49

CA=8.59 CA=8.12 CA=7.27 CA=7.65 CA=7.45 CA=8.02 CA=9.65

FL=5.44 FL=5.28 FL=5.50 FL=5.31 FL=5.20 FL=5.14 FL=6.07

(i)All percentages are of the initial aggregate receivables balance. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. APR--Annual percentage rate. LTV--Loan to value.

Securitization Performance

Currently, we rate eight of the outstanding GMCAR transactions: series 2017-1, 2017-2, 2017-3, 2018-2, 2018-3, 2018-4, 2019-2, and 2019-3. Early performance on the transactions show strong delinquency performance and lower losses than our initial expectations. In November 2019, we raised our ratings on five classes of notes for series 2017-1 and 2017-2 and affirmed the ratings on the remaining series 2017-1 and 2017-2 classes and on all classes of notes for series 2018-3 and 2018-4 (see "Five GM Financial Consumer Auto Receivables Trust Ratings Raised, 17 Affirmed, on Four Transactions," published Nov. 15, 2019). In May 2019, we affirmed our ratings on all classes of notes for series 2017-3 and 2018-2 (see "14 Ratings Affirmed On Two GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions," published May 8, 2019). We did not rate GMCAR 2018-1, GMCAR 2019-1, and GMCAR 2019-4.

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Chart 4

Table 4

Collateral Performance And CNL Expectations

As of the December 2019 distribution date

Pool factor 61+ day Current CNL Lifetime CNL Revised lifetime CNL Series Mo. (%) delinq. (%) (%) expectation (%) expectation (%)(i)

2017-1 32 24.07 0.57 0.69 1.15-1.35 0.90-1.10

2017-2 29 28.86 0.41 0.55 1.15-1.35 0.80-1.00

2017-3 26 35.16 0.35 0.48 1.15-1.35 0.95-1.15

2018-1(ii) 23 41.38 0.28 0.43 N/A N/A

2018-2 20 49.86 0.21 0.38 1.05-1.25 1.00-1.20

2018-3 17 54.83 0.28 0.35 1.05-1.25 1.00-1.20

2018-4 14 59.39 0.22 0.24 1.05-1.25 1.00-1.20

2019-1(ii) 11 61.10 0.20 0.16 N/A N/A

2019-2 8 68.51 0.26 0.13 1.00-1.20 N/A

2019-3 5 79.86 0.19 0.07 1.00-1.20 N/A

2019-4(ii) 2 89.01 0.10 0.01 N/A N/A

(i)Lifetime expected CNL was revised in May 2019 for series 2017-3 and 2018-2, and in November 2019 for series 2017-1, 2017-2, 2018-3, and 2018-4. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

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S&P Global Ratings' Expected Loss: 1.00%-1.20%

To derive our base-case loss for the GMCAR 2020-1 transaction, we analyzed the static pool cumulative net loss performance of GM Financial's originations under the prime auto loan platform since inception in 2014. The data we received were segmented by: original term, FICO band, LTV band, term and FICO, FICO and LTV, credit tier, credit tier and term, and credit tier and LTV.

We determined net loss projections for each cohort segmentation using GM Financial's historical prime originations loss timing curve. We then weighted these projections based on the actual concentration of each segment in the GMCAR 2020-1 pool.

In addition, we analyzed the cumulative gross loss performance of GM Financial's origination static pool data. GM Financial provided origination gross loss performance by FICO band and by credit tier. We applied a recovery rate that was lower than GM Financial's current or historical experience to measure the potential impact on cumulative net losses in a lower used vehicle value environment.

We also compared the pool's collateral characteristics with peer auto asset-backed securities pools (see table 5). GMCAR 2020-1 has a higher weighted average FICO and lower LTV than its peers but has a smaller percentage of new vehicles.

Based on our analysis of the GMCAR 2020-1 pool's credit quality, origination static pool analysis, comparison of similar pools from peer issuers, securitization performance on GMCAR pools, and our views regarding current and future macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions, including our expectation of lower future recoveries, we expect the GMCAR 2020-1 pool to experience cumulative net losses in the 1.00%-1.20% range.

Table 5

Collateral Peer Comparison

GMCAR 2020-1 HART 2019-B FCAOT 2019-C WOART 2019-C

Pool size (mil. $) 1,304.24 1,165.57 1,424.80 1,125.53

Avg. principal balance ($) 26,656 20,220 27,602 23,347

Avg. APR (without YSOA) (%) 5.11 3.91 3.02 4.58

Avg. FICO 773 752 740 753

Avg. LTV (%) 91 -- 99 --

Avg. original term (mos.) 69 66 66 70

Avg. remaining term (mos.) 60 56 57 62

Avg. seasoning (mos.) 9 10 9 8

Loans with an original term of 61-72 67.14 57.58 61.24 40.62 months (%)

Loans with an original term of 73-75 14.89 4.02 0.00 41.74 months (%)

New vehicles (%) 88 95 89 91

Used vehicles (%) 12 5 11 9

Top three states (%)

TX=13.69 CA=12.21 TX=14.90 FL=48.53

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Table 5

Collateral Peer Comparison (cont.)

GMCAR 2020-1 HART 2019-B FCAOT 2019-C WOART 2019-C

CA=8.59 FL=10.54 CA=10.13 GA=17.83

FL=5.44 TX=9.77 FL=7.65 NC=15.22

Expected CNL (%) 1.00-1.20 1.40-1.60 1.00-1.20 1.20-1.40

GMCAR--GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust. HART—Hyundai Auto Receivables Trust. FCAOT--Ford Credit Auto Owner Trust. WOART--World Omni Auto Receivables Trust. APR--Annual percentage rate. LTV--Loan to value. CNL--Cumulative net loss.

Cash Flow Modeling

We used cash flow modeling to determine the availability and timing of excess spread and the transaction's ability to pay timely interest and ultimate principal to the rated classes under stress scenarios that we believe are consistent with the assigned preliminary ratings. Excess spread, which is an important component of a transaction's overall credit enhancement, can be affected by many factors, such as the absolute level and timing of defaults, prepayment speeds, payment timing lags, and the collateral's APR and term.

We modeled the GMCAR 2020-1 transaction to withstand our 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA', and 'AA-' stress scenarios for the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively (see table 6). Peer historical performance data indicate that loans with lower APRs tend to prepay and default less frequently than loans with higher APRs. When this occurs within a pool of loans, the lower-APR loans remain outstanding longer. We stressed the excess spread in our cash flow modeling scenarios accordingly using a bifurcated pool method, in which the higher-APR nonsubvened loans prepay faster and default at a disproportionately higher rate than the lower-APR subvened loans.

Table 6

Cash Flow Assumptions/Results

Class A Class B Class C Class D

Preliminary rating AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) AA (sf) AA- (sf)

Cumulative net loss timing (% of losses per year)

Total loans 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100

Subvened loans(i) 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100

Nonsubvened loans(i) 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100

Loss allocation (% of total losses)

Subvened loans(i) 15 15 15 15

Nonsubvened loans(i) 85 85 85 85

Voluntary ABS (%)

Subvened loans(i) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Nonsubvened loans(i) 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.677

Recovery rate (%) 50 500 50 50

Recovery lag (mos.) 4 4 4 4

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Table 6

Cash Flow Assumptions/Results (cont.)

Class A Class B Class C Class D

Approximate break-even net 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.6 loss rate (%)(ii)

(i)The subvened/nonsubvened cut-off APR is 4.0%. (ii)The maximum cumulative net losses on the pool that the transaction can withstand without triggering a payment default on the notes. ABS--Absolute prepayment speed. APRs--Annual percentage rates.

In our break-even scenarios, while the nonsubvened loans constitute approximately 69% of the GMCAR 2020-1 pool, they were allocated 85% of the losses; conversely, the subvened loans constitute about 31% of the pool and were allocated 15% of the losses. This additional stress reduced the break-even losses that the transaction's credit enhancement could absorb but remained consistent with our 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA', and 'AA-' stress scenarios.

Class A-2 may be split into two classes: class A-2-A (fixed-rate) and A-2-B (floating-rate). This introduces interest rate risk into the transaction because the assets are fixed-rate contracts, while the class A-2-B notes are unhedged floating-rate notes. In our cash flow scenarios, we applied stresses that we believe are appropriate for the class A-2-B unhedged floating-rate note issuance (see "Methodology To Derive Stressed Interest Rates In Structured Finance," published Oct. 18, 2019). The break-even results show that the class A, B, C, and D notes have sufficient credit enhancement to withstand stressed net loss levels that are consistent with the assigned preliminary ratings.

We also ran a scenario to determine the impact to the preliminary ratings if no floating-rate class A-2-B notes are issued, and the YSOA required rate steps down to 3.50% from 4.00% on the first distribution date and remains at this level for the transaction's life. Our results show no material impact to the assigned preliminary ratings.

Sensitivity Analysis

In addition to analyzing break-even cash flows, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine whether under a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario, all else being equal, our preliminary ratings would remain within the tolerances outlined in our credit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," published May 3, 2010). We found that our preliminary 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', and 'AA (sf)' ratings on the class A, B, and C notes, respectively, are not likely to be lowered while they are outstanding, and our preliminary 'AA- (sf)' rating on the class D notes is likely to remain within one rating category while they are outstanding. These rating movements are within the tolerances outlined in our credit stability criteria, which indicate that we would not assign 'AAA' and 'AA' ratings if, under moderate stress conditions, the ratings would be lowered by more than one category within the first year.

Under the 2.20% moderate stress loss scenario (2.0x our expected loss level), we again used a bifurcated pool method, in which the nonsubvened collateral default and prepay at higher rates than the subvened collateral. In addition, the nonsubvened collateral was allocated a higher proportion of the total losses than its representative proportion of the total loan pool balance (see table 7 and chart 5).

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Table 7

Scenario Analysis Summary: Moderate Stress Loss Scenario

Class A Class B Class C Class D

Cumulative net loss level (% of initial 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 pool balance)

Cumulative net loss timing (% of losses per year)

Total loans 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100 35/69/89/100

Subvened loans(i) 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100 31/57/81/99/100

Nonsubvened loans(i) 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100 35/70/90/100

Loss allocation (% of total losses)

Subvened loans(i) 15 15 15 15

Nonsubvened loans(i) 85 85 85 85

Voluntary ABS (%)

Subvened loans(i) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Nonsubvened loans(i) 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Recovery rate (%) 50 50 50 50

Recovery lag (mos.) 4 4 4 4

Potential rating decline No downgrade No downgrade No downgrade One rating category

(i)The subvened/nonsubvened cut-off APR is 4.0%. ABS--Absolute prepayment speed. APRs--Annual percentage rates.

Chart 5

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Money Market Tranche Sizing

The proposed money market tranche (class A-1) has a 12-month legal final maturity date (Jan. 19, 2021). To test whether the money market tranche can be repaid by month 12, we ran cash flows using assumptions to delay the principal collections during the 12-month period. In addition to zero defaults, we assumed a 0.5% absolute prepayment speed on nonsubvened loans and 0.0% absolute prepayment speed on subvened loans for our cash flow run. Based on these modeling assumptions, approximately 11 months of principal collections would be sufficient to pay off the money market tranche.

Legal Final Maturity

To test the legal final maturity dates set for classes A through C, we determined when the respective notes would be fully amortized in a zero-loss, zero-prepayment scenario and then added three months to the result. To test the legal final maturity date for the class D notes, we determined the latest maturing loan's distribution date and then added at least six months to accommodate extensions. Furthermore, in the break-even scenario for each respective rating level, we confirmed that there was sufficient credit enhancement to both cover losses and repay the related notes in full by the legal final maturity date. The notes were all paid off by their legal final maturity dates using these modeling assumptions.

GM Financial

The sponsor, GM Financial, is a wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc., which is the wholly owned captive finance subsidiary of General Motors Corp. (GM) and the global provider of automobile financing solutions for GM. GM Financial, also known as AmeriCredit Financial Services Inc. (AmeriCredit), has been operating in the auto finance business since September 1992. GM Financial began a strategic relationship with GM in September 2009 and was acquired by GM in October 2010 to provide captive financing capabilities to serve GM's markets. As part of its broader captive capabilities, GM Financial added prime auto loan financing in the U.S. in 2014 and became the exclusive provider of subvened loans for GM in January 2016.

The sponsor purchases auto loan contracts, generally without recourse, for new and used vehicles that consumers purchase from GM-franchised dealers and non-GM-franchised dealers while also conducting business with a limited number of independent dealers. The sponsor's consumer loan program includes full credit spectrum lending under the GM Financial brand and a subprime lending product under the AmeriCredit brand. As of Sept. 30, 2019, the sponsor serviced a portfolio in North America of approximately 1.8 million auto loan contracts with an aggregate outstanding balance of approximately $37 billion. GM Financial also offers auto leases to consumers and commercial lending services for GM-franchised dealers.

The sponsor maintains a team of regional sales and credit representatives--with credit centers located in major markets throughout the U.S. and Canada--and services its loan portfolio using automated loan servicing and collection systems. The sponsor funds its auto-lending activities through its credit facilities, securitization transactions, and unsecured debt.

On Oct. 1, 2010, GM Motors Co. acquired AmeriCredit, at which time AmeriCredit's corporate parent was renamed GM Financial. On Jan. 10, 2017, we raised our corporate credit rating on General Motors Co. and its subsidiary GM Financial (which we deem a core subsidiary) to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. We affirmed the corporate credit rating on Jan. 25, 2018.

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Related Criteria

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology To Derive Stressed Interest Rates In Structured Finance, Oct. 18, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | Legal: U.S. Structured Finance Asset Isolation And Special-Purpose Entity Criteria, May 15, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating Structured Finance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019

- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology: Criteria For Global Structured Finance Transactions Subject To A Change In Payment Priorities Or Sale Of Collateral Upon A Nonmonetary EOD, March 2, 2015

- Criteria - Structured Finance - General: Criteria Methodology Applied To Fees, Expenses, And Indemnifications, July 12, 2012

- General Criteria: Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In Transaction Accounts, May 31, 2012

- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating U.S. Auto Loan Securitizations, Jan. 11, 2011

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28, 2009

Related Research

- Five GM Financial Consumer Auto Receivables Trust Ratings Raised, 17 Affirmed, On Four Transactions, Nov. 15, 2019

- 14 Ratings Affirmed On Two GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions, May 8, 2019

- General Motors Co., March 14, 2019

- General Motors Co. 'BBB' Ratings Affirmed On Expectations For Steady Operating Performance In 2018-2019; Outlook Stable, Jan. 25, 2018

- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top Five Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016

In addition to the criteria specific to this type of security (listed above), the following criteria articles, which are generally applicable to all ratings, may have affected this rating action: "Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology And Assumptions," March 8, 2019; "Post-Default Ratings Methodology: When Does Standard & Poor's Raise A Rating From 'D' Or 'SD'?," March 23, 2015; "Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions," Oct. 9, 2014; "Methodology: Timeliness of Payments: Grace Periods, Guarantees, And Use of 'D' And 'SD' Ratings," Oct. 24, 2013; "Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings," Oct. 1, 2012; "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," May 3, 2010; and "Use of CreditWatch And Outlooks," Sept. 14, 2009.

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