FAA Capstone Program Baseline Report April 2001 Air Safety in Southwest Alaska Capstone Baseline Safety Report prepared by: Matthew Berman Alexandra Hill Leonard Kirk Stephanie Martin prepared for: Federal Aviation Administration Alaska Region January 2001 Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508 FAA Capstone Program Baseline Report April 2001 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 1.1. Purpose of Study.....................................................................................................................1 1.2. Description of the Capstone Area...........................................................................................2 1.3. Air Operations In The Capstone Area ....................................................................................2 1.3. Air Operations In The Capstone Area ....................................................................................3 1.4. Review of Recent Studies.......................................................................................................3 2. Aviation Accidents and Incidents in the Capstone Area ................................................................5 2.1. Summary.................................................................................................................................5 2.2. Accidents in Alaska and the Capstone area ............................................................................5 2.3. Accident rates .........................................................................................................................9 2.4. Accidents Potentially Preventable by Capstone Equipment.................................................15 Decision Rules and Assumptions .................................................................................................15 3. Commercial Operations................................................................................................................21 3.1. Air Carriers and Commercial Operators...............................................................................21 3.2. Employees.............................................................................................................................23 3.3. Aircraft as of October 1999 ..................................................................................................24 3.4. Avionics in Capstone Operator Aircraft as of October 1999................................................25 4. Capstone Area Aviation Facilities ................................................................................................26 4.1. Airport Facilities...................................................................................................................26 4.2. Runway Characteristics ........................................................................................................28 4.3. Instrument Approaches.........................................................................................................29 4.4. FAA Facilities.......................................................................................................................30 4.5. Communications Facilities ...................................................................................................30 4.6. Weather Reporting Facilities ................................................................................................32 4.7. Navigation Facilities in the Capstone Area ..........................................................................34 5. Safety programs............................................................................................................................35 5.1. FAA Requirements ...............................................................................................................35 5.2. Capstone Operator Safety Programs.....................................................................................35 6. FAA Surveillance .........................................................................................................................36 7. Weather.........................................................................................................................................37 7.1. Common Weather Hazards In Capstone Area......................................................................37 7.2. Weather Variability ..............................................................................................................37 7.3. Weather Data Summary........................................................................................................38 8. Baseline Pilot Survey....................................................................................................................40 8.1. Purpose .................................................................................................................................40 8.2. Administration ......................................................................................................................40 8.3. Results ..................................................................................................................................41 Section A. Pilot Characteristics ....................................................................................................42 Section B. Training.......................................................................................................................43 Section C. Opinions About Safety and Capstone .........................................................................45 Section D. Pilot Experiences Relevant to Capstone Use ..............................................................49 Pilot Comments ............................................................................................................................50 FAA Capstone Program Baseline Report April 2001 1. Introduction 1.1. Purpose of Study This report provides the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) with information on air safety and aviation infrastructure in the Capstone program area as of January 1999. The data will establish a baseline to enable the UAA to conduct an independent study addressing the safety effects that result from Capstone. The Alaskan Region’s "Capstone Program" is an accelerated effort to improve aviation safety and efficiency through installation of government-furnished avionics equipment into aircraft in a select region of Alaska. This joint industry and FAA effort installs GPS (Global Positioning System) based avionics and data link communications suites in 150 commercial aircraft serving the Yukon- Kuskokwim delta area of Alaska. In addition to the on-board avionics systems, Capstone will deploy a ground infrastructure for weather observation, data link communications, surveillance, and Flight Information Services (FIS). Capstone will also increase the number of airports served by an instrument approach. The FAA hopes that these improvements will reduce the number of mid-air collisions, controlled flight into terrain incidents, and weather-related accidents in the Capstone area. The name "Capstone" is derived from the program’s effect of drawing and holding together concepts and recommendations contained in reports from the Radio Telecommunications Conference of America (RTCA), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Mitre Corporation’s Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD), and Alaskan aviation industry representatives. The FAA selected the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region of Alaska for the Capstone trial (Capstone Program Plan, 1999; p. 21). Virtually all the commercial aircraft serving this area fly out of the Bethel airport or seaplane base. We focus our safety inquiry on Air Carriers conducting passenger and cargo operations under parts 121 and 135, respectively, of the Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) (14CFR, Chapter 1), since aircraft owned by these companies serving the Bethel area will be receiving Capstone avionics. However, general aviation aircraft also operate in the area, as do a limited number of military planes and private carriers not regulated under parts 121 and 135. We therefore consider the safety record of aviation overall in the study area. Although we present data on safety incidents occurring over the past ten or more years, we emphasize the safety record during the most recent five years; e.g., from 1995 through 1999. Two challenges confront such a safety analysis. First, a significant regulatory change during this period confounds attempts to interpret aviation statistics. Second, data on air traffic in Alaska are limited and problematic. We briefly explain each of these issues. In early 1997, the FAA dramatically increased the scope of commercial aviation regulated under the more restrictive part 121. Since March 20, 1997, all scheduled service using turbojet aircraft or aircraft with 10 or more passenger seats falls under part 121. The impact of this regulatory change on flight operations is not known. However, it is likely that many companies providing passenger service adjusted their fleets to avoid the cost of recertification under part 121. In addition, some service conducted under part 135 prior to 1997 has probably since been converted under part 121, as presumably intended by the FAA. This regulatory change makes it difficult