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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 6-12 Sep by Tom Lake All Timings Subject to Change

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 6-12 Sep by Tom Lake All Timings Subject to Change MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 6-12 Sep by Tom Lake All timings subject to change. Monday 6 September: • United Kingdom: Parliament returns from summer recess. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to deliver a statement to the House of Commons on the emergency G7 virtual summit that took place regarding the situation in Afghanistan, as well as an update on the conclusion if the British evacuation effort last week. • European Union: Informal video conference of economy and finance ministers took place. During the meeting, ministers supported the plans for the Czech Republic and Ireland regarding the COVID-19 Recovery and Resilience facility. The Czech Republic is set to receive EUR7bn, with Ireland in receipt of EUR989mn to assist with recovery from the pandemic as well as their efforts on climate and digital transition under NextGenEU. • United States, Canada: Public holiday for Labor Day. Tuesday 7 September: • United States: No set date, but it is anticipated that this week the White House could send a list of ‘anomalies’ to the House and Senate Appropriations panels that it wants funded outside of any already-funded programmes as part of a Continuing Resolution. As of 7 September, there will be 23 days until the federal government runs out of funds, with an agreement of some sort required to avoid a shut-down. While the Democrats control the White House and both chambers of Congress, their demand of a debt-ceiling increase could make the passage of a deal more difficult, with Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) voicing Republican opposition. • United Kingdom (Scotland): First Minister Nicola Sturgeon expected to deliver her new Programme for Government at Holyrood. Focus will rest on whether the FM announces a hard or soft timeline for a future independence referendum. The formation of a governing partnership between Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party and the environmentalist Greens (both pro-independence parties) has raised expectations that the FM could seek to unilaterally call an independence vote. • Central Europe: ‘Austerlitz’ format meeting between Czech PM Andrej Babis, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, and Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger. COVID-19 pandemic and immigration set to feature heavily in the talks. • Brazil: Public holiday for Independence Day. Wednesday 8 September: • Canada: Second debate takes place ahead of the Canadian federal election due to take place on 20 September. As with the first debate, this one will take place in French. Prime Minister and head of the Liberal Party Justin Trudeau, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, NDP head Jagmeet Singh, Green party leader Annamie Paul, 1 Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG and Bloc Quebecois head Yves-Francois Blanchet have been invited. Third debate takes place in English on Thursday. Thursday 9 September: • BRICS: 13th annual BRICS summit takes place virtually, hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Indian government has put reforming the multilateral system and improving counter-terrorism cooperation as the key aims of this year’s summit, while China has also stated that the situation in Afghanistan is also likely to come up. • South Africa: Trial of former President Jacob Zuma set to resume. Zuma, currently imprisoned after being convicted of contempt of court, facing charges of corruption and graft, has recently been granted medical parole from prison resulting in an outcry from his opponents. South Africa experienced mass rioting and looting following Zuma’s earlier conviction, and tensions will he high this time around if the trial proceeds as planned. • Russia: President Vladimir Putin meets with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow. The meeting comes as the annual Zapad military drills between the two countries – billed as the largest ever – get underway. There is the expectation that the two men could sign a serious of integration ‘roadmaps’ that tie Belarus closer into Russia politically and economically. A press conference is expected to follow their meeting. • North Korea: Public holiday for National Day. Major public holidays such as National Day have historically coincided with actions seen as provocative by the West, such as missile launches, underground nuclear tests, or major military parades of new weaponry. Friday 10 September: • Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting takes place involving eurozone finance ministers. Representatives due to discuss the economic situation in the eurozone, with ECDC director and chair of the economic committee of the European Union. Ministers will also discuss how to manage the uneven impact of the pandemic across the euro area. • United Kingdom (Scotland): The UK’s political party conference season gets underway with a four-day virtual conference for the Scottish National Party. Three themes for the year are independence, the 2022 council elections, and climate change in the run-up to the COP26 summit being held in Glasgow in the Autumn. Members to vote on a motion to remove Trident nuclear submarines from Scotland within three years of an independence vote – a situation that has gained recent attention amid reports the UK government is making contingency plans to host the submarines abroad or lease territory away from the British Isles in the event Scotland becomes a separate nation state. • WHO: World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus set to deliver a press conference regarding the latest developments in the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to speak at 0800ET/1300BST/1400CET. Saturday 11 September: 2 Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG • United States: 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon by Al Qaeda, which sparked the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the multi-year ‘War on Terror’. Over 3,000 died when planes were crashed into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon, and a field in Pennsylvania. Sunday 12 September: • Argentina: Primary elections take place ahead of the country’s legislative election, set to take place on 14 November. In Argentina’s Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primaries (PASO), all parties run against one another, with a party required to gain 1.5% of the vote to get onto the ballot for the legislative election. Given that all parties are contesting the vote against one another, they are viewed as an important indicator of the potential eventual election outcome. At present, polling shows the incumbent Frente de Todos of President Alberto Fernandez on course to remain the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies (where half the seats are up for election) and the Senate (where one-third of the seats are being contested). • Macau: Elections take place for the Macanese Legislative Council. For the first time, five electoral sists and 20 candidates have been disqualified from standing, including the sole incumbent pro-democracy lawmaker José Pereira Coutinho. The reasoning behind the disqualification matches that seen in nearby Hong Kong in recent elections, with candidates being accused of “not defending the Basic Law of the Macau SAR” and not being “faithful to the Macau SAR”. • United Kingdom: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) holds its annual congress virtually for the second year. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is expected to make a keynote address. _______________________________________ IMPORTANT: This email contains information protected by copyright which can only be used in accordance with the terms of your Market News subscription agreement. UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE, PUBLICATION, REDISTRIBUTION OR FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF THIS INFORMATION MAY RESULT IN CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OR OTHER SEVERE PENALTIES. Any such authorization requires the prior written consent of Market News. Redistribution of this information, even at the instruction of your employer, may result in personal liability or criminal action unless such redistribution is expressly authorized in writing by Market News. Market News takes any such violation seriously and will pursue available legal remedies. This document may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; "may," "might," "will," "would," "should," "could," "expect," "plan," “planned,” "intend," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," “estimated,” "outlook," "predict," "project," "probable," "potential," "possible," "target," "continue," "look forward," or "assume" and other similar terms. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts or guarantees of future performance but instead express only beliefs regarding future results or events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside the control of Market News. It is possible that actual results and events may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results or events indicated in these forward-looking statements. Subscribers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of Market News or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. This information has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell. Copyright @ 2021 Market News Ltd & Hawking LLC d/b/a Market News. All rights reserved. 3 Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG .
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