Econ 281 Syllabus - Part 2
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Redistributive Monetary Policy
Redistributive Monetary Policy Markus K. Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov I. Introduction Short-term debt financing played an important role in the run-up to the financial crisis, as increases in leverage helped boost growth, but also made the economy more susceptible to a sharp downturn. Since the recession, private agents have reduced their debt level while many governments have increased borrowing. This deleveraging process appears to be holding back the recovery, and the Japanese experience suggests that such deleveraging can continue over an extended period. Economic activity depends on wealth distribution and the risk-bear- ing capacity of various sectors and actors in the economy. In a world with excessive debt financing, the amplification of adverse shocks can trigger large wealth redistributions across and within sectors, stifling growth. While in Japan, the nonfinancial business sector suffered most from liquidity and deflation spirals, currently in the United States, the household sector largely bears the costs of these spirals. This paper argues that monetary policy can mitigate the redis- tributive effects of the adverse amplification mechanisms and help rebalance wealth across various sectors and households. The wealth- redistributive monetary transmission channel works through changes in asset prices and income flows. Importantly, it is the heterogeneity 331 332 Markus K. Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov in economic agents’ asset holdings that allows monetary policy to redistribute wealth. Appropriate monetary policy can mitigate debt overhang distortions. This stabilizes the economy, reduces endog- enous risk, and can spur growth, raising the overall wealth level in the economy. For specific scenarios, monetary policy can even lead to ex-post Pareto improvements, making all agents in the economy better off. -
The Econometric Society European Region Aide Mémoire
The Econometric Society European Region Aide M´emoire March 22, 2021 1 European Standing Committee 2 1.1 Responsibilities . .2 1.2 Membership . .2 1.3 Procedures . .4 2 Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM) 5 2.1 Timing and Format . .5 2.2 Invited Sessions . .6 2.3 Contributed Sessions . .7 2.4 Other Events . .8 3 European Winter Meeting (EWMES) 9 3.1 Scope of the Meeting . .9 3.2 Timing and Format . 10 3.3 Selection Process . 10 4 Appendices 11 4.1 Appendix A: Members of the Standing Committee . 11 4.2 Appendix B: Winter Meetings (since 2014) and Regional Consultants (2009-2013) . 27 4.3 Appendix C: ESEM Locations . 37 4.4 Appendix D: Programme Chairs ESEM & EEA . 38 4.5 Appendix E: Invited Speakers ESEM . 39 4.6 Appendix F: Winners of the ESEM Awards . 43 4.7 Appendix G: Countries in the Region Europe and Other Areas ........... 44 This Aide M´emoire contains a detailed description of the organisation and procedures of the Econometric Society within the European Region. It complements the Rules and Procedures of the Econometric Society. It is maintained and regularly updated by the Secretary of the European Standing Committee in accordance with the policies and decisions of the Committee. The Econometric Society { European Region { Aide Memoire´ 1 European Standing Committee 1.1 Responsibilities 1. The European Standing Committee is responsible for the organisation of the activities of the Econometric Society within the Region Europe and Other Areas.1 It should undertake the consideration of any activities in the Region that promote interaction among those interested in the objectives of the Society, as they are stated in its Constitution. -
Nber Working Paper Series Imperfect Information And
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY N. Gregory Mankiw Ricardo Reis Working Paper 15773 http://www.nber.org/papers/w15773 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 February 2010 We are grateful to students at Columbia University and Faculdade de Economia do Porto for sitting through classes that served as the genesis for this survey, and to Stacy Carlson, Benjamin Friedman, John Leahy, and Neil Mehrotra for useful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2010 by N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis NBER Working Paper No. 15773 February 2010 JEL No. D8,E1,E3 ABSTRACT This paper surveys the research in the past decade on imperfect information models of aggregate supply and the Phillips curve. This new work has emphasized that information is dispersed and disseminates slowly across a population of agents who strategically interact in their use of information. We discuss the foundations on which models of aggregate supply rest, as well as the micro-foundations for two classes of imperfect information models: models with partial information, where agents observe economic conditions with noise, and models with delayed information, where they observe economic conditions with a lag. -
Inattentive Consumers
Inattentive Consumers Ricardo Reis∗ Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA Abstract This paper studies the consumption decisions of agents who face costs of acquiring, absorbing and processing information. These consumers rationally choose to only sporadically update their information and re-compute their optimal consumption plans. In between updating dates, they remain inattentive. This behavior implies that news disperses slowly throughout the population, so events have a gradual and delayed effect on aggregate consumption. The model predicts that aggregate consumption adjusts slowly to shocks, and is able to explain the excess sensitivity and excess smoothness puzzles. In addition, individual consumption is sensitive to ordinary and unexpected past news, but it is not sensitive to extraordinary or predictable events. The model further predicts that some people rationally choose to not plan, live hand-to-mouth, and save less, while other people sporadically update their plans. The longer are these plans, the more they save. Evidence using U.S. aggregate and microeconomic data generally supports these predictions. JEL classification codes: E2, D9, D1, D8 ∗I am grateful to N. Gregory Mankiw, Alberto Alesina, Robert Barro, and David Laibson for their guidance and to Andrew Abel, Susanto Basu, John Campbell, Larry Christiano, Mariana Colacelli, Benjamin Friedman, Jens Hilscher, Yves Nosbusch, David Romer, John Shea, Monica Singhal, Adam Szeidl, Bryce Ward, Justin Wolfers, and numerous seminar participants for useful comments. The Fundação Ciência e Tecnologia, Praxis XXI and the Eliot Memorial fellowship provided financial support. Tel.: +1-609-258-8531; fax: +1-609-258-5349. E-mail address: [email protected]. -
The Constraint on Public Debt When R<G but G<M
The constraint on public debt when r < g but g < m Ricardo Reis LSE March 2021 Abstract With real interest rates below the growth rate of the economy, but the marginal prod- uct of capital above it, the public debt can be lower than the present value of primary surpluses because of a bubble premia on the debt. The government can run a deficit forever. In a model that endogenizes the bubble premium as arising from the safety and liquidity of public debt, more government spending requires a larger bubble pre- mium, but because people want to hold less debt, there is an upper limit on spending. Inflation reduces the fiscal space, financial repression increases it, and redistribution of wealth or income taxation have an unconventional effect on fiscal capacity through the bubble premium. JEL codes: D52, E62, G10, H63. Keywords: Debt limits, debt sustainability, incomplete markets, misallocation. * Contact: [email protected]. I am grateful to Adrien Couturier and Rui Sousa for research assistance, to John Cochrane, Daniel Cohen, Fiorella de Fiore, Xavier Gabaix, N. Gregory Mankiw, Jean-Charles Rochet, John Taylor, Andres Velasco, Ivan Werning, and seminar participants at the ASSA, Banque de France - PSE, BIS, NBER Economic Fluctuations group meetings, Princeton University, RIDGE, and University of Zurich for comments. This paper was written during a Lamfalussy fellowship at the BIS, whom I thank for its hospitality. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, INFL, under grant number No. GA: 682288. First draft: November 2020. 1 Introduction Almost every year in the past century (and maybe longer), the long-term interest rate on US government debt (r) was below the growth rate of output (g). -
Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Yes, But, We Disagree∗
Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Yes, But, We Disagree∗ Ricardo Reis LSE June 2020 1 Introduction I have been doing research on expectations in macroeconomics for twenty years. When I started, back in the year 2000, almost every model assumed rational expectations. There were no alternative assumptions that were simultaneously (i) tractable across models, (ii) consistent within each model, and (iii) with few parameters to set. At the same time, most empirical studies of survey data rejected the null hypothesis of rational expectations. In the data, people’s stated forecast errors turned out to be sometimes biased, often persis- tent, and always inefficient. At the time, it felt that progress required new models to fill this gap. So, this is what I did, writing models of sticky information and inattentiveness that only had one parame- ter to calibrate, that could be inserted as assumptions in any model of dynamic decisions, and that were as easy to solve as models with rational-expectations (Mankiw and Reis, 2002, 2010). Many others were in the same pursuit, and in these two decades the theoreti- cal literature has flourished with models of expectation that are as good or better in satis- fying these criteria, including: dispersed private information (Woodford, 2003, Angeletos and Lian, 2016), rational inattention (Sims, 2003, Mackowiak, Matejka and Wiederholt, ∗Contact: [email protected]. I am grateful to Adrien Couturier and Jose Alberto Ferreira for research assistance. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and inno- vation programme, INFL, under grant number No. GA: 682288. -
Economic Perspectives
The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Fall 2016, Volume 30, Number 4 Economic Perspectives Symposia Immigration and Labor Markets Giovanni Peri, “Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets” Christian Dustmann, Uta Schönberg, and Jan Stuhler, “The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?” Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh, “Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run” Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, Çag˘lar Özden, and Christopher Parsons, “Global Talent Flows” A journal of the American Economic Association What is Happening in Game Theory? Larry Samuelson, “Game Theory in Economics and Beyond” Vincent P. Crawford, “New Directions for Modelling Strategic Behavior: 30, Number 4 Fall 2016 Volume Game-Theoretic Models of Communication, Coordination, and Cooperation in Economic Relationships” Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine, “Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games” Articles Dave Donaldson and Adam Storeygard, “The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics” Robert M. Townsend, “Village and Larger Economies: The Theory and Measurement of the Townsend Thai Project” Amanda Bayer and Cecilia Elena Rouse, “Diversity in the Economics Profession: A New Attack on an Old Problem” Recommendations for Further Reading Fall 2016 The American Economic Association The Journal of Correspondence relating to advertising, busi- Founded in 1885 ness matters, permission to quote, or change Economic Perspectives of address should be sent to the AEA business EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE office: [email protected]. Street ad- dress: American Economic Association, 2014 Elected Officers and Members A journal of the American Economic Association Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. -
A Dynamic Measure of Inflation
A dynamic measure of in‡ation Ricardo Reis Columbia University April 2009 Abstract This paper shows that conventional measures of cost-of-living in‡ation, based on static models of consumption, su¤er from two problems. The …rst is an intertemporal substitution bias, as these measures neglect the ability of consumers to borrow and lend in response to price changes. The second problem is the omission of intertemporal prices, which capture relevant relative prices for a consumer who lives for many periods. I propose a dynamic price index (DPI) that solves these problems. Theoretically, I show that the DPI: is forward-looking, responds by more to persistent shocks, includes assets prices, and distinguishes between durable and non-durable goods’ prices. Dynamic in‡ation in the United States from 1970 to 2008 di¤ers markedly from the CPI, it is close to serially uncorrelated, it is mostly driven by the prices of houses and bonds, and it is twice as high as the CPI in 2008. JEL classi…cation: E31, C43, J26, D91. Keywords: Consumer price index; COLI; Bequests; Retirement accounts; Endowments. I am grateful to many colleagues and seminar participants (too many to list) for useful comments and suggestions during the long gestation of this paper. Alisdair Mckay provided excellent research assistance. Contact: [email protected]. 1 Three questions arise if prices are uncertain and change over time: 1. If you have two children, one year apart, and wish to give each a bequest at a certain age, how much more should you give the younger one relative to what you gave the older one, so that they are equally well-o¤, in spite of the di¤erent prices they face? 2. -
No. 42 Margene Lehman Brian Ortbal Faculty Editor: Robert J
Editors: James Burns Fall 2009, No. 42 Margene Lehman Brian Ortbal Faculty Editor: Robert J. Gordon This edition covers appointments, honors, grants, travels, and publications involving economists at Northwestern, both in the Department of Economics and the Kellogg School of Management, for the period of September 1, 2008 through August 31, 2009. Additional copies are available from the editors in Room 302, Andersen Hall. APPOINTMENTS, HONORS, AND GRANTS LORI BEAMAN received a grant from the Russell Sage Foundation’s Small Grants in Behavioral Economics program and Northwestern’s University Research Grants Committee for her project “How Job Networks Work: A Study Using Experimental and Behavioral Economics.” She was also appointed as an affiliate of the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD). IVAN CANAY served on the program committee for the 2009 Latin American Meeting of the Econometrics Society. JANNET CHANG was awarded the Innovation in Teaching Grant by the Searle Center for Teaching Excellence. EDDIE DEKEL continues to serve on the council of the Game Theory Society and the Econometric Society, and as at-large member of the executive committee of the Econometric Society. He holds an NSF grant for work on uncertain temptations, and on polarization and biased information, which was renewed for 2008-2011. He serves as associate editor for Theoretical Economics. MATTHIAS DOEPKE was appointed as an editor of the Review of Economic Dynamics, an associate editor of the Journal of the European Economic Association, and an editorial board member of the American Economic Review. He continues to serve as an associate editor for the Journal of Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and the Journal of Human Capital, and serves as a Foreign Editor for the Review of Economic Studies. -
Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007–09
11941-05_Reis_rev2.qxd 1/26/10 11:33 AM Page 119 RICARDO REIS Columbia University Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007–09 ABSTRACT This paper reviews the unconventional U.S. monetary policy responses to the financial and real crises of 2007–09, dividing these responses into three groups: interest rate policy, quantitative policy, and credit policy. To interpret interest rate policy, it compares the Federal Reserve’s actions with the literature on optimal policy in a liquidity trap. This comparison suggests that policy has been in the direction indicated by theory, but it has not gone far enough. To interpret quantitative policy, the paper reviews the determination of inflation under different policy regimes. The main danger for inflation from current actions is that the Federal Reserve may lose its policy independence; a beneficial side effect of the crisis is that the Friedman rule can be implemented by paying interest on reserves. To interpret credit policy, the paper presents a new model of capital market imperfections with different financial institutions and roles for securitization, leveraging, and mark-to-market accounting. The model suggests that providing credit to traders in securities markets is a more effective response than extending credit to the originators of loans. he last two years have been an exciting time to be a student of mone- Ttary policy and central banking. Variability in the data is what allows us to learn about the world, and variability has not been in short supply in the United States, with wide swings in asset prices, threats to financial stability, concerns about regulation, sharply rising unemployment, and a global recession. -
It's All in the Mix: How Monetary and Fiscal Policies Can Work Or Fail
GENEVA REPORTS ON THE WORLD ECONOMY 23 Elga Bartsch, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Giancarlo Corsetti and Xavier Debrun IT’S ALL IN THE MIX HOW MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES CAN WORK OR FAIL TOGETHER ICMB INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES CIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONAL D’ETUDES MONETAIRES ET BANCAIRES IT’S ALL IN THE MIX HOW MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES CAN WORK OR FAIL TOGETHER Geneva Reports on the World Economy 23 INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES (ICMB) International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies 2, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 1202 Geneva Switzerland Tel: (41 22) 734 9548 Fax: (41 22) 733 3853 Web: www.icmb.ch © 2020 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street London EC1V 0DX UK Tel: +44 (20) 7183 8801 Fax: +44 (20) 7183 8820 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-912179-39-8 IT’S ALL IN THE MIX HOW MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES CAN WORK OR FAIL TOGETHER Geneva Reports on the World Economy 23 Elga Bartsch BlackRock Investment Institute Agnès Bénassy-Quéré University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics and CEPR Giancarlo Corsetti University of Cambridge and CEPR Xavier Debrun National Bank of Belgium and European Fiscal Board ICMB INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES CIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONAL D’ETUDES MONETAIRES ET BANCAIRES THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES (ICMB) The International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) was created in 1973 as an independent, non-profit foundation. -
Andrzej (Andy) Skrzypacz
Andrzej (Andy) Skrzypacz CV April 2021 Stanford Graduate School of Business 655 Knight Way Stanford, CA 94305-7298 [email protected] www.stanford.edu/~skrz Phone: (650) 736-0987 Education Ph.D. Economics, University of Rochester, 2000. M.A. Economics, University of Rochester, 2000. M.A. (magisterium) Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland, 1997. B.S. (licencjat) Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland, 1995. Employment: Stanford Graduate School of Business 2000-present: Theodore J. Kreps Professor of Economics, 2010- present. Professor of Economics, 2009-2010. Associate Professor of Economics, 2004-2009 (with tenure since 2007). Assistant Professor of Economics, 2000-2004. Stanford University: Professor, by courtesy, Department of Economics, Stanford, 2012- present Co-Director, Executive Program in Strategy and Organization 2014-present Yahoo! Research, 2011 – 2012. Academic Visitor Main Professional Service Co-Editor of the American Economic Review 2011-2014 Associate Editor for the American Economic Review: Insights 2017 - Associate Editor for the RAND Journal of Economics. 2008- Associate Editor for Theoretical Economics. 2009-2011 Associate Editor for the American Economic Review. 2006 -2011 Research Published and Accepted Papers 1. Gregory Rosston and Andrzej Skrzypacz (2021) “Reclaiming Spectrum from Incumbents in Inefficiently Allocated Bands: Transaction Costs, Competition, and Flexibility.” Forthcoming in Telecommunications Policy. 2. Felipe Varas, Ivan Marinovic and Andrzej Skrzypacz (2020) “Random Inspections and Annual Reviews: Optimal Dynamic Monitoring.” Review of Economic Studies 87(6): 2893–2937. 3. Dmitry Orlov, Andrzej Skrzypacz and Pavel Zryumov (2020) “Persuading the Principal to Wait.” Journal of Political Economy 128(7): 2542–2578. 4. William Fuchs and Andrzej Skrzypacz (2019) “Costs and Benefits of Dynamic Trading in a Lemons Market.” Review of Economic Dynamics 33 (July): 105-127.