Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing∗
Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing∗ Rui Albuquerque, Martin Eichenbaum, Victor Luo, and Sergio Rebelo December 2015 ABSTRACT Standard representative-agent models fail to account for the weak correlation be- tween stock returns and measurable fundamentals, such as consumption and output growth. This failing, which underlies virtually all modern asset-pricing puzzles, arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account for key asset pricing moments, such as the equity premium, the bond term premium, and the weak correlation between stock returns and fundamentals. J.E.L. Classification: G12. Keywords: Equity premium, bond yields, risk premium. ∗We benefited from the comments and suggestions of Fernando Alvarez, Ravi Bansal, Frederico Belo, Jaroslav Borovicka, John Campbell, John Cochrane, Lars Hansen, Anisha Ghosh, Ravi Jaganathan, Tasos Karantounias, Howard Kung, Junghoon Lee, Dmitry Livdan, Jonathan Parker, Alberto Rossi, Costis Skiadas, Ivan Werning, and Amir Yaron. We thank Robert Barro, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson, and José Ursua for sharing their data with us and Benjamin Johannsen for superb research assistance. Albuquerque gratefully acknowledges financial support from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement PCOFUND-GA-2009-246542. A previous version of this paper was presented under the title "Understanding the Equity Premium Puzzle and the Correlation Puzzle," http://tinyurl.com/akfmvxb. The authors declare that they have no relevant or material financial interest that relate to the research described in this paper.
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