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Recalibrating Alliance Contributions: Changing Policy Environment And THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Recalibrating Alliance Contributions Changing Policy Environment and Military Alliances Tatsuro Yoda This document was submitted as a dissertation in June, 2005 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Charles Wolf, Jr. (Chair), Kevin Lewis, and Greg Treverton. Richard Zeckhauser was the outside reader for the dissertation. The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Abstract According to the U.S. National Security Strategy in 2003, the U.S. needs to "strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us and our friends." The policy question explored in this study is how to encourage “our friends” to provide contributions (alliance contributions) that are more beneficial to “us.” In Part I, after reviewing previous research, I construct two conceptual models on alliance contributions to analyze their change, or burden-shifting: the economic model and the policy process model on alliance contributions. The first model is based on previous studies in public economics and international relations. From this model, I found various kinds of conditions for the change in provision of contributions in terms of types and sizes in relationship to the internal and external environment. The second and complementary model is based on the agenda-setting theory in public policy studies. From this model, I found a condition to bring about a large and sudden change in alliance contributions. In Part II, I apply an analytic framework based on the conceptual models to Japan’s contributions to the U.S.-Japan alliance, for examining the validity of the models and showing their practical utility for analysis. First, I examine Japan's Host Nation Support program (HNS) for the U.S. Forces in Japan. Second, I examine Japan’s alliance contributions and the background environment in the U.S.-Japan alliance during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. From those, I found key causes to bring about the change of Japan's alliance contributions and that the causes support the conditions pointed out in the theory. In Part III, I analyze the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance based on the analytic framework used above. First, I analyze the mid to long term case (10-20 years). I found the plausible direction of changes in Japan’s alliance contributions, possible “fault lines” in the base case scenario, and how the U.S. can influence the direction. Second, I analyze the short term case, focusing on the next Special Measures Agreement for the HNS from April 2006. I found the plausible Japan’s stance towards the SMA and effective U.S. negotiation tactics to it. iii Contents Abstract iii Tables and Figures vii Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1 Introduction 7 PART I THEORY Chapter 2 Research background 13 Chapter 3 Two conceptual models on alliance contributions 23 PART II CASE STUDY Chapter 4 Analytic framework for the U.S.-Japan security alliance 47 Chapter 5 Host Nation Support program (micro-analysis) 63 Chapter 6 Environment and alliance contributions (macro-analysis) 107 PART III APPLICATION Chapter 7 Policy analysis on alliance contributions (mid-to-long term analysis) 207 Chapter 8 Policy analysis on Host Nation Support program (short-term analysis) 245 Chapter 9 Conclusion 277 Appendix 1 Environment variables 287 Appendix 2 Alliance contributions variables 292 Bibliography 295 v Tables and Figures Tables Chapter 4 4.1 - Alliances that lasted more than 50 years (1816-2004) 49 4.2 – Element of Japan’s alliance contribution and its type 59 4.3 – Alliance contributions of Japan and their costs (2002) 61 4.4 – Alliance contributions of the U.S. and their costs 61 Chapter 6 6.1 – Change in environment-related variables 108 6.2 – Nuclear weapons in China 153 6.3 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 169 6.4 - Japans’ participation in Peace Keeping Operations during the 1990s 179 6.5 - Japan’s international humanitarian relief activities during the 1990s 179 6.6 – Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP) in the 1990s and early 2000s 190 6.7 – Change in exogenous variables and its potential effect on alliance contributions 191 6.8 – Change in environment-related variables 191 6.9 – Change in environment-related variables (related to the change in armament) 192 6.10 – Change in environment-related variables (related to the change in alliance autonomy) 192 6.11 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 193 6.12 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 193 Chapter 7 7.1 – Possible interdependencies among fault lines 241 Figures Chapter 1 1.1 – Environment change and alliance 4 1.2 – Alliance contributions, alliance benefits and alliance goods (two-country alliance case) 5 Chapter 2 2.1 – Optimal level of deterrence for large and small allies 16 2.2 – Spillover effect of public goods 17 2.3 – Spillover effects of indivisible public goods 17 2.4 – Reaction curves in Tit for Tat (TFT) and one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) 22 Chapter 3 3.1 – Relationship among variables in alliance contribution model 24 3.2 – Dilemma of alliance, and relationship among alliance contributions, alliance, and security in the economic model on alliance contributions 36 vii 3.3 – Block diagram on a conceptual feedback model on making policies and decisions on alliance contributions 37 3.4 – Decision agenda, incrementalism and comprehensive-rational choice 41 Chapter 4 4.1 – Host Nation Support for U.S. forces in Japan (1978-2003, current price) 53 4.2 – Host Nation Support for U.S. forces in Japan (1978-2002, 1992 calendar year price) 54 4.3 – Host Nation Support as percentage of Japan’s GDP (1978-2003) 55 4.4 – Host Nation Support (in yen) and exchnage rate (dollar/yen) 55 4.5 – Local labor cost (converted to dollars) and its shares by the U.S. and Japan (1978-2002) 56 4.6 – Size and share of U.S. overseas stationing costs paid by allies (top 10 U.S. allies with high share of stationing costs, 2001) 57 4.7 – Share of budget for equipment acquisition and Host Nation Support in defense budget of Japan (1978-2003) 60 Chapter 5 5.1 – Nominal exchange rate (yen/dollar, annual average rate, 1967-2000) 67 5.2 – Number of Japanese Diet members whose questions in the Diet include Host Nation Support (1978-2002) 78 5.3 – Number of newspaper articles on Host Nation Support (Asahi newspaper, 1984/1-2002/6) 79 5.4 – Number of newspaper articles on Host Nation Support (Yomiuri newspaper, 1986/1-2002/6) 79 5.5 - Number of Japanese diet members whose questions in the diet sessions include Host Nation Support issues (1987 – 1991) 85 5.6 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the late 1970s 98 5.7 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the mid to late 1980s 99 5.8 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the early 1990s 100 5.9 – Key factors in the policy-making process of the Host Nation Support program in the mid to late 1990s 101 Chapter 6 6.1 – Gross domestic product of Japan (1967-2000, Unit: billion yen) 108 6.2 – Collective security and other arrangements in areas around Japan during the Cold War 113 6.3 – U.S.
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