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Olympus Corp 28 March 2013 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Imaging Technology Olympus Corp. (7733 / 7733 JP) Rating NEUTRAL* [V] Price (27 Mar 13, ¥) 2,272 INITIATION Target price (¥) 2,500¹ Chg to TP (%) 10.0 Behind the silver lining: Best-case scenario Market cap. (¥ bn) 684.43 (US$ 7.22) Enterprise value (¥ bn) 1,039.81 almost fully priced in Number of shares (mn) 301.25 Free float (%) 62.1 ■ Action: We initiate coverage of Olympus with a NEUTRAL rating and ¥2,500 52-week price range 2,371 - 1,085 target price. Olympus is likely to unveil a restructuring plan for the imaging *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each segment when it reports 4Q earnings, but we believe its stock has almost fully analyst's or each team's respective sector. priced in a best-case scenario for the imaging/medical segments. While we are ¹Target price is for 12 months. [V] = Stock considered volatile (see Disclosure Appendix). somewhat concerned about downside risk if restructuring does not proceed apace, we have little doubt about the medical business' long-term growth prospects. With Research Analysts an aggressive restructuring plan likely forthcoming, we rate Olympus NEUTRAL Yu Yoshida because we see little risk of any near-term negative catalysts. 81 3 4550 9815 [email protected] ■ Investment case: We forecast FY3/13 OP of ¥37.1bn and FY3/14 OP of ¥75.6bn (I/B/E/S consensus ¥69.9bn). We expect Olympus to emerge from the morass of its loss concealment scandal in FY3/14. Our FY3/14 estimates factor in a reduction of the imaging segment's breakeven point and a cyclical peak in the medical segment's growth rate. However, even given such an outlook, the share price has rallied to near fair value, almost fully pricing in best-case near-term improvement in earnings. ■ Bullish FY3/14 guidance for the imaging segment could prompt upward revision of the consensus outlook to parity with our earnings estimates. Heading into 2H FY3/14, however, we expect the market to shift focus to how well Olympus executes its restructuring plan. ■ Catalysts/Risks: Upside catalysts include FY3/14 guidance projecting a return to profitability in the imaging segment and robust growth driven by new products in the medical segment. Downside risks include slow progress in restructuring and continued large losses in the imaging segment. ■ Valuation: Our ¥2,500 TP is based on a FY3/14E EV/EBITDA of 9x, in line with that of the global endoscope makers' average. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/12A 3/13E 3/14E 3/15E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Revenue (¥ bn) 848.5 740.2 713.5 767.8 4000 200 Operating profit (¥ bn) 35.5 37.1 75.6 94.5 3000 150 Recurring profit (¥ bn) -9.5 23.1 50.6 70.5 2000 100 Net income (¥ bn) -49.0 8.3 24.6 37.0 1000 50 EPS (¥) -183.5 30.0 81.7 122.8 0 0 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 24.4 83.7 136.8 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) n.m. n.m. 172.4 50.4 TOPIX which closed at 1046.47 on 27/03/13 P/E (x) -7.4 75.8 27.8 18.5 On 27/03/13 the spot exchange rate was ¥94.75/US$1 Dividend yield (%) — — — — EV/EBITDA(x) 9.9 12.8 8.3 6.9 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 8.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 Absolute (%) 9.5 37.3 74.2 ROE(%) -62.3 9.2 16.8 21.7 Relative (%) 2.8 14.8 54.3 Net debt/equity (%) 988.0 260.3 198.8 154.6 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 28 March 2013 Table of contents Investment opinion................................................................................................................ 3 Best-case scenario almost fully priced in; market likely to soon shift focus to restructuring progress ...................................................................................................... 3 On track to emerge from morass of scandal .................................................................... 3 Best-case scenario factored into our earnings estimates ................................................ 4 Shares look fairly valued .................................................................................................. 5 Restructuring of imaging business a likely catalyst for better or worse ............................ 7 Imaging Systems: need for sales mix/inventory control over volume growth ....................... 9 Imaging business positioning in Olympus ........................................................................ 9 Smartphones have shaken up cameras’ operating environment ..................................... 9 Breakdown in compact cameras’ price elasticity as light users migrate to smartphones .................................................................................................................. 10 Volume era now over for cameras; focus should be on better product mix/higher ASP .............................................................................................................. 11 Inventory control also important: excess inventories can lead to large losses from unplanned costs ..................................................................................................... 11 Urgent issues for the imaging business: strategy for low-price compact cameras / Europe and North America ........................................................................................... 12 Our breakeven scenario: reduce volume by around 2mn units YoY in FY3/14 ............. 13 Check points for the business restructuring plan ........................................................... 14 Need for Medical Systems to diversify more swiftly from diagnostics into treatment ......... 15 Medical device market growing at double the pace of GDP .......................................... 15 Olympus' current ranking achieved via expansion across endoscopic equipment market ............................................................................................................................ 16 Significance of “minimally invasive treatment,” the primary application for endoscopes .................................................................................................................... 18 Medical business to sustain peak growth rate of around 10% with aid of newly launched products .......................................................................................................... 19 Further growth in share of endoscopic equipment market needed for Olympus to sustain current valuations over long term .................................................................. 20 Earnings outlook ................................................................................................................. 22 Fourth-quarter results preview ....................................................................................... 22 Company overview ............................................................................................................. 25 HOLT analysis .................................................................................................................... 26 Olympus Corp. (7733 / 7733 JP) 2 28 March 2013 Investment opinion Best-case scenario almost fully priced in; market likely to soon shift focus to restructuring progress We initiate coverage of Olympus with a NEUTRAL rating and ¥2,500 TP. In our view, the Initiate coverage with stock has almost fully priced in the best-case scenario–namely, that Olympus is set to NEUTRAL rating and decisively move beyond its loss concealment scandal as the medical segment achieves ¥2,500 TP cyclical peak growth driven by new products and the imaging segment at least breaks even by virtue of structural reforms that Olympus is expected to announce when it reports 4Q earnings. Potential downside risk in However, in terms of the imaging segment in particular, we expect the market to turn its FY3/14 if progress with attention to how well Olympus executes its restructuring plan during the 2H FY3/14 peak restructuring of imaging demand season. We are somewhat concerned about downside risk if restructuring does segment proves slower than not progress rapidly enough. expected That said, we have little doubt about the medical segment's long-term growth prospects. Little risk of negative Given the high likelihood of Olympus announcing an aggressive restructuring plan in the catalysts in the near-term aim of restoring the imaging segment's profitability, we see little risk of any negative catalysts in the near-term. We accordingly rate Olympus NEUTRAL. Figure 1: Earnings summary Olympus Sales Operating profit Recurring profit Net profit EPS P/E (7733) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥mn YoY (%) ¥ YoY (%) (x) Consolidated Mar-11 A 847,105 -4.1 38,379 -37.2 23,215 -49.6 3,866 -92.6 14.4 -92.6 160.8 Mar-12 A 848,548 0.2 35,518 -7.5 17,865 -23.0 -48,985 NM -183.5 NM NM Mar-13 Q1 A 189,542 -4.5 2,118 -59.6 -2,059 NM -4,456 NM -16.7 NM NM Q2 A 216,222 0.1 15,922 29.5 20,043 NM 12,471 NM 46.7 NM NM Q3 A 155,464 -26.0 6,570 -22.0
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