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Military and Security Developments, People's Republic of China 2011

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Military and Security Developments, People's Republic of China 2011 ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011 Office of the Secretary of Defense Preparation of this report cost the Department of Defense a total of approximately $73,212 in Fiscal Years 2010-2011. Generated on 2011 May06 RefID: 1-4AE81FF (This page left intentionally blank) Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011 A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 Section 1246, “Annual Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People‟s Republic of China,” of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010, Public Law 111-84, which amends the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Section 1202, Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “in both classified and unclassified form, on military and security developments involving the People‟s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military- technological development of the People‟s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese security strategy and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts supporting such development over the next 20 years. The report shall also address United States-China engagement and cooperation on security matters during the period covered by the report, including through United States-China military-to-military contacts, and the United States strategy for such engagement and cooperation in the future.” (This page left intentionally blank) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY China’s rise as a major international actor is likely to stand out as a defining feature of the strategic landscape of the early 21st century. Sustained economic development has raised the standard of living for China’s citizens and elevated China’s international profile. This development, coupled with an expanding science and technology base, has also facilitated a comprehensive and ongoing military modernization program. The United States welcomes a strong, prosperous, and successful China that reinforces international rules and norms and enhances security and peace both regionally and globally. China is steadily assuming new roles and responsibilities in the international community. In 2004, Chinese President Hu Jintao articulated new guidance for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including missions extending beyond China’s immediate territorial interests. This catalyzed China’s growing involvement in international peacekeeping efforts, counter-piracy operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and the evacuation of Chinese citizens from overseas trouble spots. China’s 2010 Defense White Paper asserts that China’s ―future and destiny have never been more closely connected with those of the international community.‖ Nonetheless, China’s modernized military could be put to use in ways that increase China’s ability to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favor. Although the PLA is contending with a growing array of missions, Taiwan remains its ―main strategic direction.‖ China continued modernizing its military in 2010, with a focus on Taiwan contingencies, even as cross-Strait relations improved. The PLA seeks the capability to deter Taiwan independence and influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms. In pursuit of this objective, Beijing is developing capabilities intended to deter, delay, or deny possible U.S. support for the island in the event of conflict. The balance of cross-Strait military forces and capabilities continues to shift in the mainland’s favor. Over the past decade, China’s military has benefitted from robust investment in modern hardware and technology. Many modern systems have reached maturity and others will become operational in the next few years. Following this period of ambitious acquisition, the decade from 2011 through 2020 will prove critical to the PLA as it attempts to integrate many new and complex platforms, and to adopt modern operational concepts, including joint operations and network-centric warfare. China has made modest, but incremental, improvements in the transparency of its military and security affairs. However, there remains uncertainty about how China will use its growing capabilities. The United States recognizes and welcomes PRC contributions that support a safe and secure global environment. China’s steady integration into the global economy creates new incentives for partnership and cooperation, particularly in the maritime domain. Although China’s expanding military capabilities can facilitate cooperation in pursuit of shared objectives, they can also increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation. Strengthening our military-to- military relationship is a critical part of our strategy to shape China’s choices as we seek to capitalize on opportunities for cooperation while mitigating risks. To support this strategy, the United States must continue monitoring PRC force development and strategy. In concert with our friends and Allies, the United States will also continue adapting our forces, posture, and operational concepts to maintain a stable and secure East Asian environment. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China I (This page left intentionally blank) Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China II Table of Contents Executive Summary I Chapter One: Annual Update 1 China’s Challenges and Opportunities in 2010 1 Developments in China’s National Security Leadership 1 Developments in the Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait 2 Developments in the Size, Location, and Capabilities of PRC Military Forces 2 Developments in China’s Space and Cyber Capabilities 5 Developments in China’s Defense Technology Acquisition 6 Challenges to Taiwan’s Deterrent Forces 7 China’s Foreign Military Engagement 7 Chapter Two: Understanding China’s Strategy 9 Overview 9 Understanding Chinese Strategy 9 China’s Strategic Priorities 13 The New Historic Missions 16 Debates on Future Strategy 17 China’s Military Strategy 22 Secrecy and Deception 25 Chapter Three: Force Modernization Goals and Trends 27 Overview 27 Anti-Access/Area Denial Capability Developments 28 Ballistic Missile Defense 32 Extended Operational Reach 32 Strategic Capabilities 33 Power Projection Beyond Taiwan 37 Chapter Four: Resources for Force Modernization 41 Overview 41 Military Expenditure Trends 41 China’s Advancing Defense Industries 41 Trends and Projections 45 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China III Chapter Five: Force Modernization and Security in the Taiwan Strait 47 Overview 47 Beijing’s Taiwan Strategy 48 Beijing’s Courses of Action Against Taiwan 49 Chapter Six: U.S.-China Military-To-Military Contacts 53 Overview 53 Military Relations in 2010 53 U.S. Strategy for Military Engagement 54 Opportunities and Challenges in U.S.-China Military-To-Military Relations 55 Special Topic: China’s Evolving Maritime Strategy 57 The Rise of China’s Maritime Security Interests 57 The Evolution in “Maritime Consciousness” 57 Evolving Naval Strategy 57 New Security Interests Driving Requirements 58 New “Firsts” for the PLA Navy 59 China’s Maritime Interests 59 Sea Lane Protection 61 Great Power Status 61 Sea-Based Nuclear Forces 62 Overcoming Key Challenges 62 Assessing the Future 62 Special Topic: China’s Military Engagement 65 Traditional Military Diplomacy 65 Combined Exercises 65 Peacekeeping Operations 66 Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief 67 Arms Sales 67 Conclusion 69 Appendix I: 71 China and Taiwan Forces Data 71 Appendix II: 79 Military-To-Military Exchanges 79 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China IV Glossary of Acronyms AAV: Amphibious Assault Vehicle MIRV: Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles AEW&C: Airborne Early Warning and Control MMCA: Military Maritime Consultative Agreement APCSS: Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies MND: Ministry of National Defense ASAT: Anti-Satellite MR: Military Region ASBM: Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile MRBM: Medium-Range Ballistic Missile ASCM: Anti-Ship Cruise Missile MRL: Multiple Rocket Launcher bcm: billion cubic meters NCO: Non-Commissioned Officer b/d: barrels per day NDU: National Defense University C4ISR: Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, NFU: No First Use and Reconnaissance OMTE: Outline of Military Training and Evaluation CCP: Chinese Communist Party OTH: Over-the-Horizon CMC: Central Military Commission PLA: People’s Liberation Army CNO: Computer Network Operations PLAAF: People’s Liberation Army Air Force COMSAT: Communications Satellite PRC: People’s Republic of China CONUS: Continental United States R&D: Research and Development DCT: Defense Consultative Talks S&ED: Strategic and Economic Dialogue DDG: Guided-Missile Destroyer SAM: Surface-to-Air Missile DPCT: Defense Policy Coordination Talks SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization DSS: Defense Security Service SLBM: Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile DSTL: Developing Sciences and SLOC: Sea Lines of Communication Technologies List SRBM: Short-Range Ballistic Missile EEZ: Exclusive Economic Zone SS: Diesel-Electric Attack Submarine EU: European Union SSBN: Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile FAO: Foreign Affairs Office Submarine FFG: Guided-Missile Frigate SSN: Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine GDP: Gross Domestic Product UAV:
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