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EUCERS Reflections, Volume 3, Spring 2017 European Centre for Energy and Resource Security ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series Volume 3, Spring 2017 EUCERS ADVISORY BOARD Chaired by Professor Michael Rainsborough, Head of the Department of War Studies, King's College London Marco Arcelli, Executive Vice President, Upstream Gas, Enel, Rom Professor Dr Hüseyin Bağci, Department Chair of International Relations, Middle East Technical University Inonu Bulvari, Ankara Andrew Bartlett, Managing Director, Bartlett Energy Advisers Volker Beckers, Chairman and non-Executive Director of Reactive Technologies Ltd, Vice Chairman (since October 2016) and Member of the Board of Directors (non-Executive Director) of Danske Commodities A/S, Denmark and Chairman, Chair Audit Committee of Albion Community Power Plc Professor Dr Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Chair of Energy Economics, Department of Economics, University of Cologne; Director of the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) and President of the Supervisory Board, ewi Energy Research & Scenarios Professor Jason Bordoff, Professor of Professional Practice in International and Public Affairs, Founding Director, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York Professor Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India Dr John Chipman, Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London Iain Conn, Group Chief Executive, Centrica plc Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford Professor Dr Karl Kaiser, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, USA Frederick Kempe, President and CEO, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C., USA Thierry de Montbrial, Founder and President of the Institute Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), Paris Chris Mottershead, Vice-Principal (Research & Development), King's College London Hildegard Müller, Chief Operating Officer (COO) Grid & Infrastructure of Innogy SE Janusz Reiter, Center for International Relations, Warsaw Professor Dr Karl Rose, Senior Fellow Scenarios, World Energy Council, Vienna/London Jonathan Stern, Chairman, Natural Gas Research Programme and Senior Research Fellow, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), University of Oxford MEDIA PARTNERS EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, Vol 3, Spring 2017 2 PUBLISHED BY European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS), Department of War Studies, King's College London The European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) was established in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London in October 2010. The research of EUCERS is focused on promoting an understanding of how our use of energy and resources affects International Relations, since energy security is not just a matter of economics, supply and technological change. In an era of globalization energy security is more than ever dependent on political conditions and strategies. Economic competition over energy resources, raw materials and water intensifies and an increasing number of questions and problems have to be solved using holistic approaches and wider national and international political frameworks. www.eucers.eu IMPRESSUM © 2017 EUCERS. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of EUCERS. EDITORIAL Dr Slawomir Raszewski, Editor ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, EUCERS Ms Rose Armitage, Editorial Assistant, ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, EUCERS European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) Department of War Studies, King's College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK ONLINE VERSION About EUCERS Professor Michael Rainsborough (Head Department of War Chair, EUCERS Advisory Board Studies, King’s College London) Professor Dr Friedbert Pflüger Executive Director, EUCERS Dr Frank Umbach Research Director, EUCERS Dr Adnan Vatansever Associate Director, EUCERS Carola Gegenbauer Operations Coordinator Senior Research Associates Professor Nick Butler (King’s College London) Dr Tomas Maltby (King’s College London) Dr Petra Dolata (University of Calgary) Androulla Kaminara (European Commission) Research Associates Jan-Justus Andreas Flavio Lira Alexandra-Maria Bocse Philipp Nießen Jose A. Bolanos Philipp Offenberg Kalina Damianova Marina Petroleka Arash Duero Dr Slawomir Raszewski Moses Ekpolomo Aura Sabadus Thomas Froehlich Dr Chunping Sue Xie Maria Kottari Dr Kaho Yu Dr Maximilian Kuhn Shwan Zulal About the Working Papers Series EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Papers Series (WPS) focuses on promoting an understanding of how use of energy and natural resources affects international relations. The Series seeks to contribute to questions including but not limited to economic competition over energy resources, raw materials and water through multidisciplinary approaches which are academically-rigorous and policy-oriented. The WPS intends to stimulate debate and exchange of research ideas including those in an early stage of development. The WPS intend to provide a space for scholars and practitioners to present their work to a broad readership and connect with established expert community working on issues related to energy and resource security. EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, Vol 3, Spring 2017 3 Foreword The third volume of the EUCERS Working Paper Series ‘Reflections’ takes on board a selection of key developments in the energy and resource security domain that are closely linked to Europe. Ole Gunnar Austvik, a professor at Lillehammer University College and Gülmira Rzayeva, a senior research fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, outline the role of Turkey in the geopolitics of natural gas. Austvik and Rzayeva point out to a number of factors, including commercial, infrastructural and, political factors, which increasingly elevate Ankara’s regional energy role as both key transit country for current and future projects and, at the same time a major natural gas demand centre in its own right. Recent oil and gas discoveries in Eastern Mediterranean have placed the region in the spotlight of international energy diplomacy. Lebanon-based Mona Sukkarieh, a political risk consultant at Middle East Strategic Perspectives, critically evaluates these developments pointing out the positive role of outside actors in setting the ground for regional cooperation. Sukkarieh urges a well-defined and result-oriented policy by the regional actors that would allow for establishing a set of shared interests and creating new dynamics in the ‘EastMed’ region. Drawing on mining in developing countries, Dr Edvard Glücksman explores emerging trends within lending institutions and risk management frameworks explaining how these affect the work of international practitioners. With the emphasis on business ethics, Glücksman explains the potential these trends have in promoting international cooperation in the quest for natural resources. Developments in the Black Sea Region are discussed by Gökçe Mete, a researcher at Dundee University, who provides a detailed legal analysis of the Turkish Stream (TurkStream) natural gas pipeline project. Set to connect Russia with Turkey with a potential of changing geopolitics of natural gas in Europe, Mete emphasizes the demand projections and political concerns are ultimately the key determinants of the future of this pipeline project. I would like to thank Ms Rose Armitage for her excellent editorial assistance on this volume. The responsibility of views and opinions expressed in the papers remains with their authors. Dr Slawomir Raszewski Editor of EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, Vol 3, Spring 2017 4 Contents Turkey and the Geopolitics of Natural Gas By Ole Gunnar Austvik and Gülmira Rzayeva………………………………….…………………6 The Fragile Dynamics of Establishing a New State of Affairs in the Eastern Mediterranean By Mona Sukkarieh ……………………………………………………………..………………..…….…18 For Responsible Investment and Successful Corporate Social Responsibility, Interdisciplinary Approaches Will Prevail By Edvard Glücksman ……………………………………….………………………………..………….25 TurkStream Pipeline Project: An Analysis of Legal, Financial and Technical Aspects By Gökçe Mete …………………………………………….………………………………………………….35 EUCERS ‘Reflections’ Working Paper Series, Vol 3, Spring 2017 5 Turkey and the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Ole Gunnar Austvik and Gülmira Rzayeva Abstract This paper outlines Turkey as an increasingly more important natural gas consuming country, while being strategically located as a transit country between major consuming areas in the EU and suppliers in the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. Turkey’s ability to import additional volumes of gas to meet growing demand and renew contracts after they expire 2020s is fraught with daily send out capacity constraints of the state-owned Boru Hatları İle Petrol Taşıma A. Ş. (BOTAŞ), BOTAŞ system entry points and legal limitations in its Natural Gas Market Law. The long- term contracts with all its current pipeline gas suppliers – Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran – expire in the 2020s. Contract renewals could be beneficial for all parties, but price uncertainty and concerns about the ongoing Turkish market liberalisation, new gas suppliers, liquefied natural gas and political
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