HorizonS Global Heterogeneity

Global Heterogeneity Political Regimes and World Politics Thierry de Montbrial

NE OF the focal points of my one like the —has the writings has consisted of shed- right to unilaterally act to bring down a ding light on the problem that regime of another state. Unfortunately, Oarises from the heterogeneity of the this principle has been violated many international (or national) system, and times by the members of the Atlantic the need for its components to reach Alliance themselves since the fall of the agreement on the rules of the game Soviet Union, and we see clearly that and thus avoid collapsing into hos- U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision tile blocs—as well as the need for the to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, components of those blocs, the active pushed by the Israeli right and Ameri- units, in particular the political ones, to can evangelicals, stems from the ideol- IFRI Photo: respect them. ogy of “regime change.” Thierry de Montbrial more authoritarian—for example in values” on a daily basis without caus- Such rules are obviously not built to Similarly, in 2004 and again in 2014, a China, , and —and liberal ing a major uproar from the American last eternally, but the structural stabil- large number of well-meaning Western democracies have somewhat contracted population or institutions. Because of ity of the system suggests that they may democrats wanted to favor the birth compared to illiberal ones; populism is his preference for strong personalities evolve only within the scope of proce- of “democracy” in Ukraine from the gaining ground in the Western world, like himself, he does not shy away from dures commonly agreed upon. Such outside, counting on a domino effect which is not immune to the rise of showing sympathy for leaders whose principles lie at the root of international in Russia. This was decided despite the nationalist movements. aspirations are sometimes far from law, the efficiency of which is made pos- fiasco of the “Greater Middle East” ide- what we today call “liberal democracy.” sible only if perceived as legitimate by ology of U.S. President George W. Bush. number of Asian intellectu- In Europe, his sympathies openly go the relevant populations. The subsequent response was Russia’s als, like Kishore Mahbubani of to Poland’s Jarosław Kaczynski over intervention in the Donbass region and A Singapore, are already loudly rejoicing Germany’s Angela Merkel. he heterogeneity I address in the the prompt annexation of Crimea. about the superiority of “Asian values” following passages is one of po- T and denouncing the decadence of the Thus far I have used quotation litical regimes. It results from an under- Yet, since then, it appears that au- Atlantic civilization, whose ideologi- marks to underline a certain lack of standing that no state—even a powerful thoritarian regimes have become even cal leadership is rapidly losing ground. precision in the characteristic ter- Thierry de Montbrial is a member of the Académie des Sciences morales et politiques, Founder and Through his rhetoric and actions, minology used in ongoing debates Executive Chairman of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), and Founder and Chairman Trump continues to demean “Western regarding major international and of the . You may follow him via his website: www. thierrydemontbrial.com

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even national questions. This lack incredible tour de force in transforming After the two world wars, the countries hen it comes to European se- of precision reveals that the current its economy and society into the world’s of Western Europe chose as their line Wcurity and defense, we seem to international system is out of balance second largest economy? The Chinese of horizon the illusory reign of bour- have fallen asleep in the sweet lethargy in a fundamental sense, for many of its regime is not democratic in the sense geois comfort and protection against the of pacifism, giving ourselves away, in active units are themselves out of bal- that the electoral process is very tightly obstacles of life, seeking state protec- times of hardship, to the initiative and ance, which, again, is due to their lack controlled and the separation of pow- tion guarantees. The French expression direction of the United States. The only of capacity to adapt to the shock of an ers is dubious at best. It nevertheless État-providence, a poor translation of exceptions to the aforementioned rule ill-controlled globaliza- appears to be a sort of “welfare state,” is self-explanatory. The are, to some extent, the United King- tion process. The current meritocracy, based on French understanding dom and . Yet if international system technical and political stands at the opposite When it comes to we take a look back in Global Powers is out of balance in a skillsets that are being end of the spectrum to European security time, we can conclude et us examine the fundamental sense, for cultivated from within the American ideal as and defense, we seem that the 44 years be- Lonly two global many of its active units the Communist Party. defined pithily by John F. to have fallen asleep tween the end of World powers today: the are themselves out of By political skillsets, I Kennedy in his Inaugural in the sweet lethargy War II and the fall of the United States and China. mean their savoir-faire. Address: “ask not what Berlin Wall constitute America’s huge success balance, which is due In this regard, we should your country can do for of pacifism, giving only a short parenthesis is that it has managed to their lack of capacity not forget that China has you; ask what you can do ourselves away, in times in which Western Eu- to produce a constitu- to adapt to the shock more than 25 centuries for your country.” of hardship, to the rope conducted a policy tion that, despite all the of an ill-controlled of history and at least initiative and direction of the ostrich—for want obstacles of history, has globalization process. as many centuries of Because the individual of the United States. of a better term. This pa- maintained its legiti- experience in exercising is the ultimate actor in renthesis has, neverthe- macy in the eyes of the overwhelming power over both a considerable terri- American democracy, there is no con- less, been long enough to paralyze the majority of the American people whilst tory and equally enormous population. tradiction with the supposition that the capacity of adaptation vis-à-vis people continuing to embody their identity. Western ideologists who champion the citizen has a duty to serve his or her that have continued to live under trag- This constitution is perfectly linked to few voices of dissent as the real avant- country. As such, on that side of the edy and hardship, and that have main- culture, which very closely resembles garde voices of the Chinese people are Atlantic, the role of the individual and tained the sense of the group over that what the Founders had envisioned: suc- committing a grave mistake. the group is resolved harmoniously. In of the individual. cess by merit, melting pot, etc. Moreo- bourgeois Western Europe, we keep ver, it remains compatible with an ideal s such, both the American and waiting for the State to serve the individ- uring these 44 years of intro- of economic efficiency, despite resulting AChinese governments are well ual, without reciprocity. We speak about Dversion, however, Western (and rising) inequalities. The question equipped to confront each other in the rights and not duties, forgetting that a Europe founded an entirely new that lingers, however, is whether and race for the world’s top spot. This is not nation does not merely represent a col- political construction that eventually for how much longer such a culture will the case with a majority of other states in lective of its citizens at a given moment, became the European Union. From maintain its essential characteristics. the world, beginning with those in the EU but includes its both dead and those that the very beginning, it was not per- that do not suffer as much from a “demo- are not yet born. That’s why Charles de ceived as an international institution Regarding China, how can we doubt cratic deficit,” as we often like to repeat ad Gaulle carefully distinguished between among others, but as a starting point the legitimacy and efficiency of a -re nauseam, but rather from an efficiency what he called “eternal” France and towards the establishment of a new gime that has managed to pull off an deficit, and thus a legitimacy deficit. France “of the moment.” type of political unit.

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This entity helped to reorient com- adapt to changes in its environment and government to correctly identify prob- electoral base. As of August 2018, the mon priorities away from waging war threats to which it is directly exposed. lems and provide necessary solutions. American economy is doing well and and towards the establishment of a Thus we ask ourselves the question: Sir Winston Churchill was very attached Trump looks like he might actually be force for prosperity and active peace what is the future of the EU and its to such a distinction—one that Queen reelected for a second term. on a global scale. As with every politi- member states? Elizabeth II has perfected so much that cal entity, a form of governance was her long reign has managed to paper During the slower years of the Cold needed that would be fundamentally Trump, Trump, and More over the fact that numerous post-World War, the Europeans learned to be skep- compliant with the principles of liberal Trump War II British governments have not tical of the concept of national inter- democracy. Still, this was only done ll eyes are on Trump, particularly exactly been paragons of efficiency. est, which was mistakenly identified up to a certain extent, thereby provok- Aas he relates to the forthcoming as realpolitik. We preferred instead to ing debate about the legitimacy of the midterm legislative elections, but also In a presidential system like that of speak of the general interest, but those European Commission. on speculating about the United States, or in two concepts are two But this is not the most What came to be the 2020 presidential a semi-presidential one Politicians deserve to sides of the same coin. important argument. the EU started to elections. This is not like that of France, the be called statesmen In the case of the former, What is essential is build itself up to the the place to discuss at dignified and the efficient when they manage to the focus lies more with what came to be the EU bourgeois image of length the brutal, vulgar, are more or less largely convince voters of the external issues while in started to build itself up its first members, and arrogant style of the carried by the same per- pertinence of the latter it is domestic to the bourgeois im- away from all the current tenant of the son. We can affirm that issues that prevail. age of its first members, White House; neither from the dignified point their actions that away from all the global global turbulence, and is it useful to examine of view, Trump’s presi- reach beyond the owever that may turbulence, and without without preparation in detail the values that dency has been a disas- immediate demands of Hbe, the fun- preparation for a poten- for a potential return he embodies, which are ter for America’s global the electorate. damental point to be tial return of tragedy. of tragedy. often far removed from brand. However, it is still made is the fact that the the idea of democracy in unclear whether this understanding will outlook of politicians is reduced once If we ask ourselves why the European America as it understands itself. play a role in the elections to come. I they limit themselves to concentrating Union we know today manifests so also note that, using other words, such a on the immediate conditions that allow many contradictions that overshadow Let us take a more useful way for- debate takes place with some regularity them to remain in power. That outlook its legitimacy, the essential answer lies ward. Walter Bagehot, a nineteenth- in France. The French are not insensi- is enlarged when politicians begin to in the fact that it was not capable of century British economist and con- tive to the dignified. concern themselves with the nation’s adapting itself fast enough, both psy- stitutionalist, distinguished between future in the context of long-term ac- chologically and institutionally, to two two essential components of executive et us come back to the United tions. Politicians deserve to be called critical aspects: the consequences of power: the dignified and the efficient. LStates and the question of the ef- statesmen when they manage to con- successive waves of enlargement and ficiency of Trump’s actions. The defend- vince voters of the pertinence of their the strategic developments taking place n the United Kingdom, the sovereign ers of liberal democracy are unable to actions that reach beyond the immedi- beyond its own (expanding) borders. Imonarch holds no practical power: restrain his will to firmly and selfishly ate demands of the electorate. efficient is the responsibility of the promote American interests (with the Everyone knows that the survival of a government, and principally relies on doctrine of “America First”), as well From this perspective, liberal democra- species is contingent on its capacity to the Prime Minister. We expect from the as to focus narrowly on preserving his cies don’t always play to their advantage.

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The notion of competency carries little way they are formulated, are usually demands an adequate understanding of establishment of quotas) can lead to to no relevance in elections, which in warranted. In this regard, we can appre- independence at different scales of time, a currency war (with China in such a turn brings into question psychological ciate his unwillingness to submit to the as well as thorough analytical work. scenario ceasing to buy bonds from the issues of other forms, remaining outside terms of political correctness. Where he U.S. Treasury), as well as a monetary of a given timeframe, which is, as it were, might be wrong is his belief that solu- Let us take the case of trade. Trump war (competitive devaluation). When compressed. tions can be brought about through denounces the trade deficit with China triggered, such a process leads, sooner bilateral action or the circumventing of or Germany. He is right or later, to a financial As such, the Brexit referendum result institutions set up in the wake of World to question China’s status By rushing like market crash and panic- is abhorrent and has caused a deviation War II, which constitute the backbone as a market economy— a bull on targets driven moves. in history. Trump was elected because of the international order. granted by the WTO— differently identified he managed to raise real issues without and is certainly right- without stopping to The Great Depres- being concerned about political cor- That being said, despite his blatant fully worried by some of anticipate the lasting sion was a consequence rectness. By rejecting the self-absorbing disregard for multilateralism, Trump Beijing’s foreign invest- of this sort of abuse, consequences of his rhetoric of the elites—which have has not yet pronounced the death ments. The Europeans at a moment when the now become the main scapegoats—he of multilateral institutions. Thus the are equally concerned. actions, Trump risks United Kingdom, weak- brought satisfaction to the contempo- (WTO) lives But he is not using the starting a chain ened by the Great War, rary spirit. However, due to his oppor- on, as does NATO—although, one must right methods in focus- reaction that could abdicated the de facto tunism, reduced outlook, and skilled admit, he seems to sadistically enjoy ing on particular sectors, spiral out of control. leadership it previously populism, he has vehemently promoted humiliating or scaring his European such as the automobile exercised over the global “solutions” that have not been thought partners (on display in Québec at the industry. He omits the services sector— economy, whilst the United States was through. Although such solutions may G7 meeting in June, and in Brussels at increasingly important in our contempo- rising in power, behaving as a free-rider. have been received as flattering by his the NATO Summit in July). rary economies; he also does not seem to electorate, they do carry a great danger care about the balance of capital as well ould it be that we have entered over the mid- and long-term. And once Experts keep asking whether Trump as the privileges granted to the U.S. dol- Can era in which the United States elected, after taking months to organize actually aims to destroy these institu- lar, the only currency known as a reserve refuses to worry about the global himself––due to the fact that he did not tions or just shock his counterparts into currency, which allows America to live economic order, whilst China behaves foresee his victory—he started imple- giving their assent to reforms that are beyond its means. He does not see that like a free-rider? Harvard University’s menting his program. to his liking. What is certain is that the exports are the cost of imports. He fo- sees a high likelihood current tenant of the White House is at cuses on bilateral balances whereas in an of war between the United States and Questioning Multilateralism ease only in bilateral meetings, and thus open economy, the balance of payments China (he is the one who popularized onsider this list: the future of considers multilateral meetings a waste must be considered as a whole. the term the “Thucydides Trap”). The Cfree trade, alliances (NATO, in of time. equally highly-regarded Joseph Nye particular), the EU, the functioning By rushing like a bull on targets dif- is more worried about the short-term of the G7 and G20, migration, sanc- ut this is not all. The majority of the ferently identified without stopping to “Kindleberger Trap,” which carries the tions, the Iran nuclear deal. In all of the Bmajor international issues, be they anticipate the lasting consequences of name of the respected economist for his aforementioned cases, the dysfunctions economy- or security-related, remain his actions, Trump risks starting a chain works on the Great Depression—had and shortcomings are numerous, and complex. The correct evaluation of pos- reaction that could spiral out of control. it been prevented, World War II could Trump’s criticisms, putting aside the sible options with regards to each issue A trade war (increases in tariffs and the have been avoided. As for the current

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States and Japan. Alliances rarely sur- reinforce its own capacities to resist the vive the disappearance of the cause that attacks by which it might be targeted. prompted their creation. The Atlantic Taken together, these two articles Alliance has survived for almost 30 harmoniously comply with the idea years since the fall of the Soviet Union, of a European defense which would principally because it has reinforced be more focused on cyber-security itself with a powerful or- and fighting terrorism, ganization, which tends, The loudest pro- on the one hand; and like all other organiza- Atlantic voices have both direct and indirect tions, to self-perpetuate, done everything threats coming from namely the European in their power regions to the south of Union. Drifting away to maintain the Europe, on the other. from a pure security perception of a major threat assessment or- The Franco-German ganization, NATO has threat that post- cooperation currently transformed itself into Soviet Russia poses to being drawn in the Sahel the linchpin connect- Europe, at the peril falls right in line with ing the United States of fabricating a self- the aforementioned idea. Photo: The Federal of Germany Government Photo: with Europe. The loud- realizing prophecy. For this to be reinforced, On the same page? G7 leaders at the Québec Summit est pro-Atlantic voices NATO will have to have done everything in their power define its missions more clearly, and an situation, we are still far from such sce- of having provoked a financial crash. to maintain the perception of a major agreed interpretation of Article 5 would narios, and since the post-World War Regardless, his understanding of differ- threat that post-Soviet Russia poses to need to be achieved, while an even II institutions are still standing, with ent mechanics of the economy remains Europe, at the peril of fabricating a self- more difficult matter that will need to reminders still loudly resounding. limited, and he either lacks the humility realizing prophecy. be addressed is Turkey’s future place in or the intelligence to seek the expertise NATO. Additionally, President Trump is mainly in others, which would compensate for Trump is right in demanding greater concerned with having a good business his lack of knowledge. He actually built burden-sharing and more of a direct rump’s blunt charge against the climate and the health of the financial his entourage to his image, and never and independent understanding of TEuropean members of NATO has markets—both of these seem to condition have we seen so many businessmen and defense by the Europeans. It seems that been successful in forcing them to re- the support of his electoral base. Current- so few think-tankers in the nucleus of the Europeans have gotten the message, view the situation in light of today’s re- ly, the financial markets are still artificially Washington power. although this by no means guarantees alities and disregard the burden of past boosted by an abundance of liquidity due they will take action. Perhaps in the ideologies. This will have to be done to quantitative easing policies that have Trump’s Allies future we should pay more attention to in a concerted manner with the aim of followed the subprime crisis. imilar considerations might deter- Articles 1 and 2 of the NATO Treaty. preserving the best of what the Alliance Smine the future of NATO or the The first article stresses democracy and has to offer: its efficiency in the field We can imagine that Trump would fate of the Treaty of Mutual Coopera- the rule of law. The second stipulates of military cooperation (the integrated not like to see himself someday accused tion and Security between the United that each member state needs to military command), for instance.

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Setting up a European defense force future of NATO will be impossible to In the real world, every state tries to be under their jurisdiction, including totally independent of the United States determine as long as relations with the turn it to its own advantage and does so much of the world’s banking system. is not realistic in the foreseeable future. nations to the east of the EU remain in accordance with how powerful it is at When it comes to American unilateral Fortunately, Trump’s closest circle of ad- undefined. any given moment. At this general level, sanctions, allies and adversaries are put visers is replete with people of military nothing is new with Trump. on the same level. background. It is for this reason that On the Asian front, the current tenant the risk of a sudden breakdown of the of the White House continues to de- Nonetheless, what has changed is that ever have America’s NATO European security system should not be mand an increase in financial contribu- the technological revolution has given Npartners found themselves in exaggerated. tions from allies like Japan and South America leverage of unprecedented such a position of dependence, which Korea. The situation in the Far East power, and that Ba- verges on the border of ATO member states on either does not offer much room for maneu- rack Obama’s successor America’s unilateral submission. A photo Nside of the At- ver, however, since the often does not resist withdrawal from the which notoriously went lantic will need to reach The future of NATO entire region essentially the temptation to use nuclear treaty with viral all over the world agreement on how to en- will be impossible to shares a common con- this to force the hand of Iran was a grave during the catastrophic determine as long gage with Russia. Some cern about the rise of both existing or poten- act that further June 2018 G7 Summit in European states, like as relations with the China. That being said, tial adversaries, as well Québec was more telling accentuated the Germany, the United nations to the east Trump does not seem as his allies. America’s than any long speech Kingdom, and most for- of the EU remain inclined to treat Tokyo unilateral withdrawal decline of confidence would have been: we see mer Warsaw Pact mem- undefined. or Seoul any better than from the nuclear treaty that the rest of the the dominant Trump bers, understandably see his European counter- with Iran was a grave act world may have had sitting with a half-in- Russia as constituting a serious to major parts, let alone Ottawa or Mexico City. that further accentuated in the United States. different, half-arrogant threat. Other actors, like France and the decline of confidence look directed at his most of the European south, are more o conclude with the question of that the rest of the world may have had “colleagues,” who are all standing and cautious. Tmultilateralism in jeopardy, I in the United States. This has made it trying to convince him of something would like to draw certain examples certain that North Korea’s Kim Jong- or another. General de Gaulle must be The United States, increasingly ob- linked to America’s withdrawal from Un will remember it at the right time. rolling in his grave. sessed with the prospect of war with the nuclear treaty with Iran and the What is even more important is that China, may be tempted to put an end unilateral sanctions imposed Washing- this withdrawal has been followed by As for the conundrum surrounding to its quasi “cold war” with Vladimir ton has imposed thereafter, as well as sanctions—quite efficient ones, thanks the Iran nuclear deal, we are facing an Putin. Although this was most certainly the effects such actions have had on the to technological advancements. unbelievable situation in which the what Trump wanted, it has not come geopolitics of the Middle East. Again, so-called partners of the United States to fruition due to the ongoing investi- international law is the matrix of mul- Due to the high level of interdepend- are forced to submit to a de facto policy gations into his alleged collusion with tilateralism. In an ideal world, similar ence as a result of globalization, the of disapproval, thus weakening their Russia. Nevertheless, as things stand to the one of pure and perfect competi- United States is capable of punishing own credibility. Even the Chinese have right now, Putin was visibly satisfied tion of economic theory in which no foreign companies that wish to do busi- found themselves handicapped, as il- with his July 2018 meeting with Trump system would be powerful enough to ness with Iran as soon as their profes- lustrated by the case of ZTE, a company in Helsinki, much to the frustration manipulate the system of prices, law sional activities interact with American threatened due to its dependence on of many Western commentators. The would be imposed on all states equally. territory or anything they consider to American electronic components. This

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reach because the fate of China is un- hina’s expansion is being made doubtedly one of the most fundamental Cmanifest on both continental issues the world will be dealing with and maritime fronts. The language over the next three decades. employed by Beijing is now overtly emphasizing strength rather than weak- The year 2049 will most likely mark ness. That being said, the Communist the 100th anniversary of the People’s Party’s aristocracy knows better than Republic of China, and no one can all external commentators that a de- doubt the willingness railment remains pos- of the Chinese Com- Western ideologists sible. Reforms that still munist Party to secure who champion the few need to be undertaken global recognition for voices of dissent as on the economic, envi- the Middle Kingdom as the real avant-garde ronmental, and social the world’s number one voices of the Chinese fronts remain difficult power. This is realisti- people are committing and are facing powerful cally achievable but by resistance. Corruption no means certain. a grave mistake. remains a real issue.

Photo: NATO.int Photo: On the territorial front, anyone who The Chinese elites know their country’s “Never have America’s NATO partners found themselves in such a position follows the situation in Hong Kong history. They know that no dynasty is of dependence, which verges on the border of submission.” knows that its absorption by Beijing eternal and that dynastic transitions have is all but complete. Every Hong Kong- always occurred in periods of war and episode will leave open wounds and international payment system to distance based business tycoon has already misery. Yet, the ruling dynasty today does have far-reaching consequences. itself from the U.S. dollar. This will take pledged allegiance to the capital. The not belong to any dynastic family. The time but, here again, the Chinese have pressure on Taiwan is slowly but surely “family” is the Party itself, which is still What can we say about the partners, the advantage of being able to take a increasing, and China is sophisticated formally communist whilst having man- allies and otherwise, who do not wish to strategic, long-term approach. enough to use technology to this end, aged to superbly adapt itself to pressing be reduced to the position of vassal state? more precisely through cyber-attacks. realities since the death of Mao Zedong. Until now, China has taken enormous The question of traditional American We are already speculating about the advantage of the system put in place by allies remains, but for now they are day when the host of the Forbidden Xi Jinping is not an emperor; he is the WTO, and definitely hopes to con- powerless and paralyzed by stupor. City will cordially invite the tenant of merely a delegate of the party. To reach tinue benefiting from that institution. the White House to withdraw his navy the 2049 objective, it will be necessary But we can be certain that Beijing will China from the South China Sea, echoing the to consolidate the dynasty and fortify its only ramp up policies that aim to ensure he end of 2017 was marked by day from the beginning of the twentieth representative, which does not neces- complete technological independence Tthe 19th Congress of the Chinese century, when U.S. President Theodore sarily mean granting him an uncondi- from the United States. The Chinese sys- Communist Party and its decision Roosevelt successfully extended an invi- tional carte blanche. Referring to Xi as tem of government, in principle, guar- to break with the presidential two- tation to the British cabinet to evacuate a new Mao thus appears inaccurate, in antees success. China will also attack the mandate limit. This decision has global the Caribbean Sea. my view. On the contrary, what the

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aristocracy of the Party sees wrong in the is a demanding school of power, and to Kishore Mahbubani once again: “every sensibility and refrain from attempts to founder of the dynasty is the perception this day still oversees a large number of year, 120 million Chinese citizens leave change them as long as they do not pose of him as the man whose mistakes put it think tanks where foreign experiences, the country, and 120 million come back an unbearable and real threat to us. in peril. Such criticism can obviously be geographically near or far from the Mid- into it.” This is not a typical feature of a expressed only in mezza voce. dle Kingdom, are studied carefully. Many dictatorship. Right now, EU member states need to of these think tanks are interacting with organize their future against the odds of In this context, consider what French their foreign counterparts. ome pretend that a new cultural the massive competition for global lead- novelist Gustave Flaubert wrote in Srevolution is actually brewing in ership between the United States and Madame Bovary (1856): Concretely, if we con- China. For those who China, bearing in mind , “one must not touch To quote Singapore s sider the French motto can actually call to mind EU member states the symbolic deadline of one’s idols; a little of the Kishore Mahbubani: Liberté, Égalité, Frater- the real Cultural Revolu- need to organize their 2049. In order to achieve gilt always comes off on “every year, 120 million nité, Chinese ideologies tion, such an argument future against the this, our first duty is to one’s fingers.” By im- Chinese citizens leave can with no difficulty is nonsense. Addition- odds of the massive correctly analyze the posing a limitation on the country, comply with the ideals of ally, we must say that competition for global current means of power presidential powers in equality and fraternity, the Chinese youth are put into work between leadership between the long run, Deng had and 120 million come but only to a certain mainly ignorant of this these two giants, as there wisely judged to avoid back into it.” This is not degree with those of tragic episode in the the United States and is no good prediction dooming the blossoming a typical feature of liberty. As mentioned political life of Mao, due China, bearing in without good analysis, dynasty to perish in the a dictatorship. previously, we live in a to censorship. It is more mind the symbolic nor good political action short term. Today the culture where the affir- accurate to say that on deadline of 2049. without good prediction. situation is quite different. It consists mation of one’s individualism is limited top of the obstacles and of delegating powers to the representa- by the duties linked to the sense of challenges it still needs to overcome, the The Korean Peninsula tive of the emperor, by which we mean belonging to the group, with the group Party is increasingly trying to control a et me turn next to North Korea. the Party, in order to reach the final being the family or the State. Thus, free- culturally obedient population. LThe first point to make is that none goal. The latter must have his hands dom of speech, expression, or action are of the parties with a stake in the Korean sufficiently liberated in order to deliver submitted to obstacles that are difficult In this regard, the party resorts in- Peninsula wish to see a rushed reunifi- necessary reforms. If he were to fail, for a Western intellectual to admit. creasingly to intimidation rather than cation. This is largely due to unforesee- his competencies would be withdrawn. brutality. And that is taking place in a able local and global consequences. The This is how I feel we must interpret the Since the election of Xi Jinping, phase where China is opening itself to directly concerned parties are: the two decisions of the 19th Congress. Chinese intellectuals are more care- the world, in contradistinction to the Koreas, China, Japan, Russia, the United fully monitored, and their relationships 1960s and 1970s when China was on States, and much more indirectly, the he current Chinese regime seems with the outside world are increasingly lock down and the Maoist spirit was two European permanent members of Tin sync with the political culture controlled. Nevertheless, this does not thrilling to many Western intellectuals the United Nations Security Council: of a state that had already lived through prevent a vibrant culture of local de- who were dumbed down. At the time the UK and France. 1500 intense years. I don’t see any set of mocracy from blooming when it comes of their mea culpa, they could barely re- terms in the vocabulary of Western po- to dealing with practical affairs of the cover a sense of moderation. What this Second, the permanent members litical science capable of accurately draw- polis, nor does it hinder the develop- moderation means is that foreign po- of the Security Council, the principal ing a picture of that history. The Party ment of global mass tourism. To quote litical regimes can only be judged with nuclear powers, unanimously reject

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North Korea’s membership in the club and self-restraint, whereas so many This meeting had been China’s long- front. Pyongyang will remain open on of nuclear powers. Western observers saw him as a lunatic. time objective, and Beijing had been that last point, but will naturally de- He started mercilessly eliminating all doing everything in its power to push mand the lifting of sanctions, as well as Third, the Pyongyang regime knows those who could be manipulated by for- the United States to the front line. This is a considerable and sustainable aid from that only the acquisition of a nuclear eign powers like China, and who could what Xi Jinping did well by hosting Kim the global community. There should arsenal, even if at bare minimum, will be seen as potential substitutes for him. Jong-Un with full honors on a number be no doubt, Pyongyang will not back allow it to carry on with of occasions. No one can doubt that the down easily. reforms that would The strategy of the Having done so, he Chinese and North Ko- ensure its long-term young North Korean then multiplied the Her- rean heads of state have Kim Jong-un has mong the more survival in power. leader has been mit Kingdom’s nuclear gone quite far in their successfully achieved Acomplicated ques- progressively revealed and ballistic tests, and discussions, much to his tour de force goal tions is that of financing. These reforms would as a series of acts showcased them with- Seoul and ’s sat- of being admitted From the looks of it, it suggest economic lib- out being concerned isfaction—less Tokyo’s­­— appears that South Ko- showing rationality to the international eralization to an extent. with the threats made and Trump had already community. North rea, China, and possibly and self-restraint, The latter threatens any by Trump, any approba- seen himself as a Nobel Korea is no longer Japan will have to do whereas so many regime that finds itself tion by Xi Jinping, and Peace Prize winner. an outcast. most of the heavy lifting. in a weakened position. Western observers saw across-the-board global The main question mark, This is one of the funda- him as a lunatic. indignation. He did not hat is where we are currently. however, remains the United States. I mental lessons drawn by hesitate to implement TWhat can we expect next? If must add, as I have previously under- Alexis de Tocqueville in his magisterial a near-destruction tactic towards the Trump seriously thought that the meet- lined, that when the time comes, Kim work The Old Regime and the Revolu- poker-loving American president until ing in Singapore was going to end up in Jong-Un will certainly raise the issue of tion (1856). Indeed, “Tocqueville’s Law” the moment when, having deemed the a unilateral and quick dismantlement how credible America is when it comes sheds light on the division between tests conclusive, he stated that his objec- of the North Korean arsenal, then he to its commitments. the short- and the long term, and was tives had been reached and that he was got what he paid for. No matter how constantly verified in history—notably now ready to negotiate the destruction loud he may protest or how angrily he The negotiations to come will take in Russia, with the fall of the Romanovs of a carefully built arsenal. may tweet, the other stakeholders will time. They will face obstacles and chal- or the fall of the Soviet Union. Deng go against him. Even Japan will remain lenges. In the long run, China will expect Xiaoping had learned this lesson, and At that point, the immediate threats careful in the short term. a strengthening of its role on the Korean reacted accordingly by repressing the of the American President no longer peninsula at the expense of the United Tiananmen protesters of 1989, in part made sense, and with the help of the In fact, Kim Jong-un has successfully States. This could result in a rapproche- to prevent a return to the chaos of the pacifist South Korean government, a achieved his tour de force goal of being ment between Seoul and Tokyo. To avoid Cultural Revolution. face-to-face meeting between Trump admitted to the international communi- increasing marginalization, the United and Kim Jong-Un was arranged. This ty. North Korea is no longer an outcast. States will have to commit to massive et, taken as a whole, these three meeting, which took place in Singa- What remains crucial is to find long- investment in the development of North Yarguments are contradictory. The pore, carried with it an implication term solutions that will allow Pyong- Korea—a not-so-likely prospect. strategy of the young North Korean that he, the North Korean head of yang to start a long process of economic leader has been progressively revealed state, was one of the world’s most reform, while providing assurances to It is highly likely that the new equilib- as a series of acts showing rationality important players. the global community on the nuclear rium will be notably shaped by regional

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powers, including Russia, which cannot I now wish to focus on regional population, but that minority is well he more probable hypothesis allow its scarcely populated Far East implications. For domestic political organized and powerful. It controls the Tgoing forward seems to be the to become China’s playground. Noth- reasons, Trump has publicly aligned levers of the economy and benefits from reinforcement of conservative forces ing permits us to lend credence to the himself with the point of view of the sanctions thanks to contraband goods within Iran, who will gladly play the prospect of a speedy reunification of the Israeli right wing and the American and the black market. card of American responsibility for two Koreas. At most, we can speculate neocons that the time has come to the Islamic Republic’s misery. Even if about the level of progress that remains precipitate regime change in Tehran. To this we must add significantly weakened to be achieved in the time ahead, much Contrary to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, that the Iranians are Rouhani hopes that economically, Tehran like we did with the two Germanys in such an objective would not be pursued proud, and that the pres- the Europeans will find could still maintain the the 1970s, albeit with by military means. In- sure to unilateral disar- a trick to maintain means to foster chaos in much more reserva- To avoid increasing stead, Trump demands a mament can only stimu- the deal. But the a region that has already tion. We could possibly marginalization, the total and unconditional late patriotic reflexes to Europeans do not have been gravely wounded even speculate about the United States will capitulation of the mul- the benefit of the regime. the means to prevent by the disastrous wave have to commit to prospect of the entire lah regime, asking for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei their companies from that began with the process ending in a sort massive investment complete disarmament. has always manifested Arab Spring. submitting themselves of confederation whose in the development of his defiance towards the to the dictate of boundaries are yet to be North Korea—a not- He believes that the Americans and even the Circumstantial al- Trump, and the Islamic defined. These questions so-likely prospect. toughening of sanctions Europeans. liances, surprising or will keep geopolitical he threatens to impose Revolutionary Guard not, might very well scholars, economists, and diplomats on the rest of the world is enough to Thus far, nothing could Corps is becoming start arising soon. busy for many years to come. China bring the Supreme Leader and the surprise the Ayatollah, extremely impatient. While Bashar al-Assad would be an essential actor in such government to its knees. Like in 1989, not even Trump’s “be- has nearly completed a confederation. We can never stress when the protesters of Tiananmen trayal” or the impotency of the Euro- the re-conquest of his country, a rap- enough that the Middle Kingdom has Square were carrying signs with the pean leaders who will now have to bow prochement between Turkey, Iran, institutions that allow it to think strate- statue of liberty, just like in 2003, when in the face of the brutality of the White and Syria does not look impossible, gically over the long term, whereas the the Baghdad masses overthrew the House’s tenant. That being said, he has especially if one considers the unfold- Western systems are more concerned statue of Saddam Hussein, the Ameri- not yet abandoned support for Presi- ing alliance between Saudi Arabia, with current affairs and electoral cycles. can leadership is once again convinced dent Hassan Rouhani, who is trying as Egypt, and Israel. that the “liberated” people will simply hard as he can to save the nuclear deal Iran and its Region throw themselves into their arms. and thus avoid opening a Pandora’s Many observers and experts wonder utside of East Asia, the Middle Box. Rouhani hopes that the Europeans about the risk of an Israeli military in- OEast remains the region with et Trump and his friends might will find a trick to maintain the deal. tervention against Iran in the event that most geopolitical risk exposure. So far, Yrepeat the mistakes of their pre- But the Europeans do not have the Tehran restarts its nuclear activities. the principal event of 2018 has been decessors. First, as in previous cases, means to prevent their companies from Many of these observers believe that the the unilateral withdrawal of the United there is no credible alternative to the submitting themselves to the dictate of United States would then have no other States from the Iran nuclear deal, the regime at the moment. The Islamic Trump, and the Islamic Revolutionary choice but to follow Israel’s charge. It external effects of which I have already Revolutionary Guard Corps and their Guard Corps is becoming extremely is, indeed, not impossible. But it is not discussed. supporters represent a minority of the impatient. certain, at least in some measure. For

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Israel, indeed, what is most important as cinema and greater fraternization geographically complex environment, along, and that it is just a matter of MBS now is to prevent attacks coming from between the sexes. MBS has also an- whereas the latter resembles a fam- not wanting to be the principal instiga- Syria. nounced an extremely ambitious plan ily feud that could by its very nature tor of the initiated reforms. for economic transformation called resolve itself at any point. Russia has an interest in facilitating Saudi Vision 2030. This plan leaves us How long can all this last? Long mutual assurances between these two skeptical, since its core ideas derive n essential question that remains enough, we hope, so that at the right Middle Eastern states. However, even from a McKinsey report rather than Afor the short-term future of Sau- time, a young monarch will be strong then the situation would representing an organic di Arabia is the relation- enough to start a deep be unstable, similar to The number of enemies product of Saudi society, ship between the prince No one now believes in transformation of his what we had prior to the MBS has made is which has yet to accept and his father, King the prospect of Turkey kingdom, foster recon- commencement of the exploding. This is and implement it. But Salman bin Abdulaziz joining the EU in the ciliation, and contribute JCPOA negotiations. especially true given the international observers Al Saud. The question foreseeable future. to the restoration of a see real efforts in the is essential, because The question of its stable regional balance. Saudi Arabia fact that the exterior drive to reorganize and Salman is the last of the and the Region adventures in which he restart. sons of the founder of membership in NATO Pivoting Turkey ith Crown was engaged have not the modern Saudi state. must be raised too, but he third major WPrince Moham- gone as planned. aturally, the Success in achieving a it is in no one’s interest Tdevelopment in med bin Salman (MBS), Nyoung prince jump to the next gener- to raise it prematurely. the region is Turkey. Saudi Arabia started a real revolu- is facing resistance that he has so far ation will have to follow President Recep Tayyip tion, taking some considerable risks successfully broken, sometimes with an economic, social, political, national, Erdogan’s early election gamble has and following in the footsteps of the force. We saw that with the corruption- and international revolution. paid off: he is now head of the country’s United Arab Emirates and its leader related arrests of powerful Saudis who executive government and the leading Mohammed bin Zayed. MBS has opted were unceremoniously held at the Ritz Those that know him characterize party, which gives him virtually all the for moderate Islam, unhesitatingly Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, as well as the King Salman as having a remarkable power in the country. He immediately demonstrating even violent opposi- stripping of the Saudi religious police of personality and tremendous experience. took advantage of his victory by crack- tion to religious conservatives, notably its authority. He knows his country and his Who’s ing down on intellectuals with even the Muslim Brotherhood, in complete Who to perfection. MBS was raised greater severity. agreement with Egyptian President The number of enemies MBS has in his proximity, although with such Abdel Fattah Sisi. This has only resulted made is exploding. This is especially discretion that until recently it was still His current principal challenge is now in the furthering of the rapprochement true given the fact that the exterior believed that he could not even speak economic. Like Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Israel and also explains the ongo- adventures in which he was engaged English. There is no doubt that the king Turkey has both geopolitical and socio- ing feud with Qatar. have not gone as planned. The situa- is physically weak, but his activity is vis- political ambitions. Erdogan does not tion in Yemen is far from being re- ible enough to allow one to believe that want to renounce economic modernity, The Crown Prince’s moderate views solved, and Qatar is now stuck in a he is still aware and in charge. but he does wish to bring his country are reflected in the driving authoriza- long-term resistance campaign against back to its Islamic roots—at the expense tion he has issued to women and the Saudi pressure. Obviously, these are The more likely hypothesis is that the of Kemalism. This starts with education. decision to open—with some caution— two different sorts of challenges. The father and son have been discussing all- Ataturk’s secular project is dead, and the door to popular distractions, such former is a real war in a politically and important matters in the kingdom all the West will just have to accept it.

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o one now believes in the pros- leader of Shia Islam is still clearly Iran, its own imperial posture in the Middle so how should one understand what we Npect of Turkey joining the EU in which extends its tentacles wherever it East, even if this is only to safeguard its Europeans have to deal with today? the foreseeable future. The question of can, most notably in countries like Iraq, access to resources. As such, it increases its membership in NATO must be raised Syria, and Lebanon. But the competi- its influence in Iran by taking advantage Too often, European citizens and too, but it is in no one’s interest to raise tion between the two Sunni projects of the retreat of European companies, their representatives lose sight of the it prematurely. In both cases, the con- can justify a rapprochement that would as a result of Trump’s sanctions. Simi- European war of three generations, cerned stakeholders have an interest, for otherwise be difficult to conceive. Such larly to Russia, however, starting from the 1870 now, in sticking to the French expression a rapprochement would occur, as noted it does so with caution The chaos of the Franco-Prussian War to that says that getting out previously, between and discernment, for it contemporary Middle World War II. A fortiori of ambiguity is always on To add one more factor Turkey, Iran, Syria and does not want to pick East or the potential they consider the previ- par with a weakening of of complexity, we Qatar, with a degree of sides prematurely. India, instability of East ous history of the Old sorts. must remind ourselves support from Russia. under the ambiguous Asia—two good Continent as a sort of that China is itself The Kurds are to be seen Narendra Modi, also examples of regions prehistory. However, the On the geopolitical as the collateral damage wishes to have greater chaos of the contem- ambitious in its own lacking a collective front, the great ambition of such a situation. access to, and influence porary Middle East or of the contemporary sul- imperial posture in the in, the Middle East. security system in the the potential instability tan of Turkey is to emerge Middle East, even if Further in the past, broad sense—allow us of East Asia—two good as the leader of Sunni this is only to safeguard before the 1979 Iranian This is how, little by to imagine what could examples of regions Islam—in other words, to its access to resources. Revolution, Iran too was little, a new configura- happen in Europe if we lacking a collective replicate the state of affairs a great friend of the Jew- tion of the Middle East were to progressively security system in the that existed in Ottoman times. Erdogan ish state. At the time of the Arab Spring, is being drawn. The lose the Union. broad sense—allow us dreams of a mosque and a university that the United States contributed to the incompatibility of vari- to imagine what could would replace those of Al Azhar, which ousting of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and ous geopolitical projections means that happen in Europe if we were to progres- are to this day considered the Vatican of to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. a state of order in the region remains sively lose the Union. Sunnism. In order to achieve such goals, Today they support President Abdel unlikely in the near future. This benefits he faces the alternative project crystalliz- Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi and Israel, for it allows the Jewish State to The project of constructing a new type ing around Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a his struggle to restore Egypt’s prestige. pursue a policy of expansion and merci- of political unit—capable of ensuring the merciless fight against the Muslim Broth- Turkey and Iran are now being seen lessly quench any Palestinian resistance. security and prosperity of each and every erhood. But quite contrary to the Saudis as major opponents of the American The Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be one of its members without abolishing and the Egyptians, Erdogan––much like empire, which includes their overt sup- resolved someday. It remains, however, personal identities, with the ambition of his Qatari friends––views the Muslim port for the Palestinian cause. Russia at the bottom of the list of priorities for playing an active role in the consolida- Brotherhood with a sympathetic eye. exploits this situation, more laterally pretty much all the relevant players. tion of a global security collective—re- than frontally. All this represents quite mains as pertinent a century after World Confusion, Complication, an embarrassing situation for NATO. Europe and the West War I as it was the day following the end Unraveling y way of a conclusion let me now of World War II. This must now be un- hia Islam maintains its strength n order to add one more factor of Bcome back to the EU and its derstood from a very different context, Sagainst Sunni Islam. Saudi Arabia Icomplexity, we must remind our- crises. A problem is never fully under- which accounts for the 2049 deadline I vehemently fights on its territory. The selves that China is itself ambitious in stood if seen outside of its framework, have previously noted.

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hirty years is a time horizon that Thirdly, it should reinforce the Eu- preparing us well enough. The mem- policy and avoid populist games regard- Tis pertinent enough for very rozone (Monetary union; European ber states of the EU today seem more ing the refugee crisis that risk fracturing important decisions to be made. Exam- Monetary Fund) and beyond that ef- conscious of the necessity to over- us even more. We must fight to take ples include the construction of systems fectively make the Euro an international come the deep differences between back the countries where populist par- of defense and security and building currency that would have guarantees them—be it on the defense culture, ties have taken power. And we should an international currency that would of independence from political instru- or in terms of economic policies that not forget that we must strive to achieve fulfill three of its most mentalization of the dol- sharply reflect the north-south divide. the monetary union. basic functions—namely Beyond immediate lar and, at some point, This is too narrow. to ensure value and security issues, the renminbi. In the years to come, the principle risk become an instrument such as the need to very major project starts with a is that, without completely disintegrat- of both exchange and strengthen borders, he Union will Elong-term vision—something ing, the Union could degrade to a mere reserve. the EU has an interest necessarily have that is sorely lacking in confederation. Follow- T When we have a long- in supporting the to learn to be in sync today’s Europe. I do not ing the fall of commu- term vision, albeit one Without renouncing development of Africa, with the essential aspects think such a vision will nism, debate took place that’s initially only the idea that, in the very giving priority to the of a common foreign emerge spontaneously to decide whether we long run, the EU’s ambi- policy. Beyond immedi- from governments, com- burgeoning and would have an immedi- areas north of the tion is to extend and ate security issues, such missions, or individual blurry, it is much ate enlargement of the equator and working enlarge, we must look at as the need to strengthen or associative initiatives. easier to treat its mid- European Community for the establishment th the 30-year framework borders, the EU has However, with IFRI’s 40 term problems. to encompass the coun- as a deadline to first of a stable order in the an interest in support- anniversary around the tries that we were still reinforce its social and Middle East. This is a ing the development of corner, I don’t hesitate to say that Euro- calling Eastern Europe, or to maintain economic structures, necessary long-term Africa, giving priority pean think tanks could work towards the Community as it was—while also and considerably im- condition for every to the areas north of the this goal and cooperate in order to pro- implementing a vaster and less ambi- prove methods of coop- migration policy. equator and working for duce a text that, at the right moment, tious Confederation. The former option eration between existing the establishment of a could be used by policy makers. was picked. A quarter of a century later, member states in order to harmonize stable order in the Middle East. This is a we must now try to avoid becoming a their action. necessary long-term condition for every When we have a long-term vision, al- Holy Empire, more or less Roman and migration policy. The EU must also beit one that’s initially only burgeoning Germanic, as well as to avoid putting Secondly, it should implement—with- work with Ukraine and Russia on the and blurry, it is much easier to treat its the European Parliament in the role of out disregarding the last-resort safety renewal of the collective security sys- mid-term problems. And these are not Imperial Diet. And we know that this net provided by NATO—a true com- tem stemming from the 1975 Helsinki missing in the Union today: We must “empire” never prevented wars between mon security policy oriented towards Accords. Finally, the EU will have to achieve a successful Brexit which—to its members. domestic affairs (domestic aspects of imperatively define a framework for the paraphrase what French historian the fight against terrorism or cyber-se- relationship of its members with China. Jacques Bainville wrote long ago in an n order to provide a point of inflec- curity, for instance) and foreign affairs entirely different context—would be Ition, the Union must now promote (prevention and dissuasion of specific All of this requires huge long-term neither too soft for what was hard in the efficient over the dignified. This threats, especially coming from the determination, while our political cul- it, nor too hard for what was soft in it. will only come after a shared long- southern and eastern flanks). ture and existing institutions are not We must put in place an immigration term accord between its members.

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But the efficient is difficult to achieve Trump is not made in the image of when the institutions are inefficient. Harvard, but of those of the American Hence the importance of leadership, Wild West’s conquerors who did not which Emmanuel Macron is trying care about ideas but wanted results to to exert—unfortunately without the serve their interests hic and nunc. As support he could have obtained had Margaret Thatcher wanted her money Angel Merkel done better in the 2017 back, so Trump wants others to pay up German elections. for everything. Globalization can I think the foremost be more or less deep, Even if he were to dis- of priorities is not but as technological appear from the political institutional reform or innovations keep scene today, he would bringing closure to the have given the world the never-ending ideologi- appearing, it becomes huge service of demon- cal debate about whether more and more strating that the United their character is more irreversible. America States can step over what or less democratic; it is not isolationist. It is would not have existed is, rather, the quest for now introverted. without it: a system of concrete solutions to institutions capable of problems which affect people in every ensuring interdependence. Europe now member state. knows that Euro-Atlantic institutions are mortal, even in the short term. The he time for action is now, and entropic principle teaches us that the Tperhaps even more so for the Eu- destruction of an order leads to chaos. ropeans, since the American president glows in limitless self-satisfaction and But in human affairs, as in the inani- embodies the West’s complete absence mate world, from chaos a new order of a long-term vision. Some mistakenly emerges that is sometimes completely say that Trump has isolationist tenden- unforeseeable. If we do not look closely, cies. Surely, globalization can be more the world beyond tomorrow could look or less deep, but as technological in- more like an interwar period than the novations keep appearing, it becomes “end of history.” Therefore, leaving aside more and more irreversible. America is all complexes, it is now time for the not isolationist. It is now introverted. Europeans to wake up.

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