EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL
2008 Presidential Election 30 October 2008 Jerusalem Key Findings • Overwhelming landslide support for McCain: 3 to 1 • Significant cross-over of registered DEMOCRATS • Majority of voters have UNFAVORABLE impression of Obama • McCain viewed as far more capable to handle challenges – Even among OBAMA voters • Large number of 1st time voters: 31 % • High turnout of young voters: 18-34 • Correlation between religious observance and voting pattern • Foreign policy main reason for choosing candidate • Voters very concerned personally with Iran • Voters strongly agree that a nuclear Iran threatens the U.S. Methodology
• 817 respondents - “absentee ballot voters” • 22 question survey • + / - 3.5% margin of error • “Exit Poll” was conducted – Tel Aviv (Dancing Camel) on Sunday – Jerusalem (YU Seminary) on Monday – Jerusalem (OU Center) on Tuesday – Online among 1700 VFI assisted voters • About 45,000 Americans requested absentee ballots – 7k – 10k processed through VFI Who Did You Vote For?
OBAMA 24%
MCCAIN 76% Are you….
IND/NO PARTY 49
REPUBLICAN 23
DEMOCRAT 28 Vote by Party Affiliation
IND/NOT TOTAL REG
McCAIN 76 % 46 % 98 % 79 %
OBAMA 24% 54% 2% 21% Vote by US State
NY NJ CA FL PA MD IL MA MI OH TOTAL (26%) (13%) (10%) (7%) (5%) (5%) (4%) (4%) (3%) (3%) n=216 106 81 55 39 38 33 31 28 25
McCain 76% 83% 88% 79% 84% 80% 76% 73% 55% 64% 64%
Obama 24% 17% 12% 21% 16% 20% 24% 27% 45% 36% 36% Battleground States
OBAMA 22%
MCCAIN 78%
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NC, NM, OH, OR, PA, VA, WI
39% of exit poll respondents are from Battleground States Regardless of who you voted for, do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of….
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NET
McCAIN 80% 19% +61
BIDEN 42 % 42 % 0
PALIN 54% 40% +14
OBAMA 32% 67% -35 John McCain
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 31%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 49% 80 %
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 13%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 6% 19%
Don’t Know 1% Barack Obama
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 15%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 17% 32%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 17%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 50% 67%
Don’t Know 1% Joe Biden
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 11%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 31% 42%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 20%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 22% 42%
Don’t Know 16% Sarah Palin
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 23%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 31% 54%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 16%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 24% 40%
Don’t Know 6% “What was the MOST important issue that influenced your vote?”
ECONOMY 14
FOREIGN POLICY INCLUDING ISRAEL 57
IRAN 7
WAR IN IRAQ/TERRORISM 6
OTHER 16 “Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..” ECONOMY
OBAMA 33 %
McCAIN 67% “Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..” FOREIGN POLICY INCLUDING ISRAEL
OBAMA 19%
McCAIN 81% “Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..” WAR IN IRAQ / TERRORISM
OBAMA 21%
McCAIN 79% “Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..” IRAN
OBAMA 19%
McCAIN 81% “Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
OBAMA VOTERS MCCAIN VOTERS
OBAMA MCCAIN OBAMA MCCAIN
Economy 95% 5% 13% 87%
War in 82% 18% 2% 98% Iraq/Terror For. Pol. incl 78% 22% 1% 99% Israel
Iran 76% 24% 2% 98% “On a scale of 1-10, how concerned are personally by the threat of a nuclear Iran?” (1=Not concerned, 5=Somewhat, 10=Extremely)
1 to 4 = 7%
5 to 7= 28 %
8 to 10 = 65% 36% chose 10, Extremely Concerned “There are some that say that if Iran attains nuclear weapons it will directly, or indirectly, through terrorists getting those weapons, threaten the safety and security of the United States. Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with that statement?”
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT
93% 29
64 7%
AGREE DISAGREE “How long have you lived in Israel?”
More than 15 Years 25
8 - 14 Years 11
4 - 7 Years 11
1 -3 Years 19
Less than a year 33 Are you…
Temp. Work Permit 4
Permanent Resident 10
Student 30
Tourist 4
Israeli Citizen 52 Which best describes you?
I have voted in a US election before 69%
This is the first time I have voted in a US election 31% Age
65 + 10% 18 - 24 55 - 64 37% 13%
45 - 54 13%
35 - 44 25 - 34 11% 16% Vote by Age 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Axis Title Axis 30 20 10 0 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 + OBAMA 25 38 25 23 14 7 McCAIN 75 62 75 77 86 93 Gender
MALE FEMALE 48% 52 % Vote by Gender
TOTAL MALE FEMALE
McCAIN 76 % 80 % 73 %
OBAMA 24% 20% 27% Vote by Residence
JERUSALEM TEL AVIV TOTAL (67%) (9%) n=543 74
McCAIN 76 % 76 % 51 %
OBAMA 24% 24% 49% How do you define yourself religiously?
ULTRA- NOT JEWISH ORTHODOX 4% 10% SECULAR 8% TRADITIONAL 18%
ORTHODOX 60% Vote by Religious Observance
120 100 80 60
Axis Title Axis 40 20 0 ULTRA- SECULAR TRADITIONAL ORTHODOX ORTHDX OBAMA 59 45 14 3 McCAIN 41 55 86 97 For Further Info
Dena Lerner Mitchell Barak
Vote From Israel KEEVOON
Tel: +972-52-608-9794 Tel: +972-52-404-6600 [email protected] [email protected] www.votefromisrael.org www.keevoon.com