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Climate Ready Greater Melbourne

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Climate Ready Greater Melbourne CLIMATE-READY VICTORIA GREATER MELBOURNE How climate change will affect the Greater Melbourne region and how you can be climate-ready The Greater Melbourne region has GREATER MELBOURNE HAS BEEN GETTING WARMER already become warmer and drier – a AND DRIER. IN THE FUTURE THE REGION CAN EXPECT: climate trend likely to continue into the temperatures to continue more hot days and future. Local residents, businesses and to increase year round warm spells communities are changing the way they do things in response. Getting fewer frosts less rainfall in winter and spring climate-ready involves understanding more frequent and more harsher fire weather and how climate change is likely to affect intense downpours longer fire seasons you and your region, and working increased frequency and height rising sea level out ways to adapt. Everyone can of extreme sea level events contribute to the Greater Melbourne warmer and more acidic seas region’s climate-ready future. HOW WILL THESE CHANGES AFFECT YOU, AND WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT THEM? This publication highlights the impacts climate change will have on the Greater Melbourne region. It gives examples of how people are already becoming climate-ready, with links to more detailed information. While this publication is about adapting to climate change, reducing your carbon emissions by reducing energy use and switching to renewable energy sources is also important in getting climate-ready. For more information on reducing your emissions, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. OUR CHANGING CLIMATE GREATER MELBOURNE AT A GLANCE local government 9 110 km2 31areas 4% of the Melbourne approximately state 4 109 000 74% of the state IT’S GETTING WARMER AND DRIER RECENT CLIMATE Over the past 100 years, global surface air temperatures have The region has mild to warm summers with an average risen by almost 1°C. Both the atmosphere and the oceans have maximum temperature of around 22 to 24°C near the warmed. Human activity is causing climate change, through our coast and in the ranges to the east, and 25 to 27°C in the release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, Melbourne area and further inland. In winter, average maximum land use change and agriculture. Atmospheric concentrations of temperatures are mostly around 12 to 14°C and frosts occur carbon dioxide are now more than 40% higher than they were inland, but are rare near the coast and in inner urban areas. before industrialisation. On average, rainfall across the region is approximately 860 mm, In the Greater Melbourne region, the rate of warming has but is less than 600 mm to the west of Melbourne and more increased since 1960. than 1400 mm in the Dandenong Ranges. Rainfall has declined since the 1950s, especially in autumn. For more information about some of the drivers of Victoria’s The harsh Millennium Drought (1996 to 2009) followed the wet climate, visit the Climatedogs website. decades of the 1950s and 1970s. Sea level today is approximately 225 mm higher than in 1880. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Our climate varies – it always has and always will. This Temperature climate variability means that some periods are cooler and 1.0-1.2oC change in the wetter than average (as was the case in the 1970s), while Greater Melbourne o region since 1950 others are hotter and drier (such as during the Millennium 1.2-1.4 C Drought). However, due to climate change, the long-term average is changing. Future climate will be different from that in the past. 1.4-1.6oC 200-300 mm 300-400 mm 100-200 mm Rainfall change in the Greater Melbourne region since 1950 0-100 mm 2 HOW DO WE GET CLIMATE-READY? GREATER MELBOURNE CLIMATE RISKS Being climate-ready in the Greater MORE HARSHER Melbourne region involves knowing the days of fire weather extreme heat Melbourne climate risks and impacts for the region, and making changes so that we can MORE take advantage of the opportunities and LESS frequent and intense rainfall heavy downpours RISING reduce the negative impacts. sea level GETTING CLIMATE-READY AT A GLANCE Primary Infrastructure Tourism Health and Environment production community i rainfall h sea level h temperature h heatwaves i rainfall h temperature h fire weather h sea level h flooding h fire weather h hot days h flooding h fire weather h fire weather h hot days h fire weather h hot days h heatwaves h solar radiation h sea temperature h heatwaves h ocean acidification KEY CLIMATE RISKS KEY CLIMATE h storm surges Earlier flowering and Increased flood Increased threats to More stress on health Amplification of planting times damage tourism infrastructure and emergency services existing threats to flora and fauna Changed distribution of Increased maintenance Damage to popular More heat-related pests and diseases costs environmental sites deaths, particularly Changes to habitat among the elderly and Farm business affected Extreme heat impacts Impacts on outdoor Altered disturbance disadvantaged by bushfire and sporting events regimes Increased disruption to Mental health effects Changes in pasture services Risks to tourists Changing dynamics of growth unfamiliar with Changes in disease invasive species POTENTIAL IMPACTS conditions occurrence Reduced water security Consider enterprise Insure public assets Implement emergency Use cost-effective Target new and diversification planning for tourist pedestal fans in emerging diseases and Increase stormwater sites heatwaves pests Consider different crop capacity varieties and sowing Undertake business Use existing social Increase green urban Adopt water sensitive times continuity planning networks to support infrastructure and urban design solutions vulnerable community urban biodiversity Plan for a secure water Multi-skill staff Diversify sources of members supply Link habitats to allow power and water, Consider enterprise Establish contingency species to move Regularly access long including decentralised diversification plans for patient and medium range technologies Consider moving Prepare for changing influxes in hospitals outlooks, as well as selected populations Consider future climate seasonal demand CLIMATE-READY ACTIONS CLIMATE-READY short range weather Increase green spaces to new areas and sea level rise forecasts and cool zones for when locating new heat stress infrastructure 3 GETTING CLIMATE-READY HOW CLIMATE-READY ARE YOU? CLIMATE-READY NOW Getting climate-ready is an ongoing process, and there’s no single recipe for success. Many of the risks we face are not Victorians have always been good at managing the ups and new. However, there are likely to be changes in duration, downs of climate. Now that we have a clearer picture of the frequency and severity of some weather events, as well as way in which climate is likely to change in future, there’s lots changes to the climate. that we can do to become climate-ready. Decisions we make now will affect how well we cope with the changing climate, To determine what’s important to you and what climate change which in turn will affect future economic and employment responses might work for your situation, consider these conditions. Decisions range from simple to complex, and questions: some will need to be made sooner than others. Your decisions may depend on the local climate in your part of the region. c How might you – your health, property, business, community, industry – be affected by: There are many good examples of communities in your • higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves? region and in Victoria preparing for and adapting to climate change. The links you directly to the source or • less winter and spring rainfall, more time in drought, decreased water availability or flooding? visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au for a full list of links. • sea level rise, increased height of extreme sea level events and coastal erosion? • harsher fire weather? c How might your services, suppliers, clients or customers PRIMARY PRODUCTION be affected? The region covers the vegetable farming areas of Werribee; c Are you making any long-term decisions now that will be dryland grazing land in the north; wine, fruit and nursery impacted by future climate change? industries in the Yarra Valley; and the wine grape region of the c What action could you take now to prepare? What are Mornington Peninsula. others in your region doing? What benefits have they Horticulture and vegetables are highly sensitive to reduced experienced? water availability, and changes in temperature will alter planting and harvesting times. Intensive animal industries will require c Can you prioritise actions that also have other benefits, such as emissions reduction, financial, community or more power and water to cool facilities. The dairy industry is environmental advantages? also sensitive to climate change impacts. While the total annual number of frost days is expected to decrease, an increase in c Does climate change present any opportunities you can spring frosts is possible, especially over the next decade or so. take advantage of? Climate Kelpie is a ‘one-stop shop’ for the best The information, case studies and links in this brochure can available climate risk management information and help get you started. tools for Australian farmers and farm advisors to inform business decisions. The Managing Climate Variability Climate Champion Program aims to help farmers manage climate risk by providing the best climate tools, products, practices and seasonal outlooks, and an understanding of their use. INFRASTRUCTURE The region has airports, two major ports, and road and rail hubs. The major waterways and storages have water extracted for domestic supply, irrigation, industrial use and environmental purposes. 4 A significant proportion of the coast in this area is low-lying. heat, bushfires and flooding. More frequent extreme weather It is likely that predicted sea level rise will heighten conflict events and impacts on the economy and jobs due to climate over space for native vegetation retreat and human needs for change may affect the mental health of the community.
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