Amateur Decision-Making in Avalanche Terrain with and Without a Decision Aid: a Stated Choice Survey

Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-009-9365-4 ORIGINAL PAPER Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey Pascal Haegeli Æ Wolfgang Haider Æ Margo Longland Æ Ben Beardmore Received: 6 July 2008 / Accepted: 10 February 2009 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Abstract Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour. Keywords Decision-making Á Avalanche safety Á Decision aid Á Discrete choice experiment Á Choice complexity Á Backcountry skiing Á Out-of-bounds skiing Á Snowmobile riding 1 Introduction Traditionally, natural hazards have primarily been viewed as phenomena of the geological and biological domains. Related research attempted to enhance the physical understanding about natural hazards to better predict catastrophic events and to improve the managerial ability to control the hazards through technological means. Over the past two decades, P. Haegeli (&) Á W. Haider Á M. Longland Á B. Beardmore School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada e-mail: [email protected] 123 Nat Hazards however, a paradigm shift has occurred towards a more comprehensive human–environ- ment perspective that also integrates societal and human aspects into the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards, placing considerably more emphasis on social science contributions. Existing social science research in the field of natural hazards primarily focuses on assessing societal vulnerability and examining how interventions at the policy level can effectively decrease it through minimizing people’s exposure to natural hazards and maximizing their adaptive capacity (Haque and Etkin 2007). The study of decision-making by individuals facing natural hazards is a considerably smaller field and primarily focuses on evacuation behaviour prior to hurricanes (Whitehead et al. 2000; Gladwin et al. 2001; Lindell et al. 2005; Whitehead 2005) and wildfires (Mozumder et al. 2008). These studies have used a variety of survey techniques to examine the social, economic and perception factors that affect people’s decision to evacuate. Such research can help emergency planners design effective community evacuation strategies that encourage maximum compliance. Dash and Gladwin (2007) suggest that the next step in evacuation research should focus on developing a better understanding of how individuals process the information they use to assess the safety of their homes and to make evacuation decisions. The goal of the research presented in this article is to study the decision-making process of individuals with respect to avalanche hazard. With 329 avalanche fatalities over the past 30 years (1978–2007) and a recent avalanche fatality rate of 14 fatalities per year, snow avalanches appear to cause the greatest average loss of life due to any winter natural hazard in Canada (Campbell et al. 2007). However, compared to hurricanes or wildfires, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occur when people voluntarily expose themselves to avalanche hazard during recreation (Jamieson and Stethem 2002). Over the past several decades, winter backcountry1 recreation activities have steadily increased in popularity, with the most popular activities being backcountry skiing and snowboarding; out- of-bounds skiing and snowboarding; and snowmobile riding.2 Technical advances in skiing equipment and snowmobile gear allow increased numbers of people to venture farther into the backcountry. The combination of challenging terrain, rapidly changing environmental conditions and remote locations make the winter backcountry a hazardous place where perceptual errors and even minor decision mistakes can have serious consequences. In addition to fatalities, it is estimated that approximately 75 people are injured by avalanches every winter (Bhudak Consultants Ltd. 2003). While non-voluntary exposure to natural hazards is generally controlled through legislation, the mitigation of voluntary exposure to a hazard requires more active participation of the engaged individuals. In order to enable individuals to make appropriate personal choices, mitigation strategies need to focus on awareness education and timely delivery of relevant hazard information. Traditionally, avalanche awareness 1 In this study, the term backcountry refers to mountainous terrain where avalanche hazard is not actively controlled by professional avalanche technicians before recreationists enter the area. 2 Backcountry skiing refers to a type of downhill skiing or snowboarding that is practiced on ungroomed and uncontrolled slopes away from ski areas. Possible means of access to these slopes are climbing skins, snowshoes, snowmobiles or helicopters. Out-of-bounds skiing, on the other hand, describes skiing or snowboarding on ungroomed and uncontrolled slopes outside, but close to ski areas primarily using ski lifts and possibly short hikes to reach the top of the mountain. Snowmobile riders use a small motorized vehicle that is propelled by a rubber track and uses ski-like runners for steering to explore vast areas of mountainous terrain. 123 Nat Hazards education of amateur recreationists in Canada has been based on the assumption that a better understanding of the hazard would lead to better decisions and fewer accidents. Curricula of avalanche awareness courses have therefore focused on improving the recreationists’ scientific understanding of avalanches. Most backcountry recreationists, however, do not spend enough time in the backcountry to internalize the theoretical understanding of avalanches necessary for properly applying a knowledge-based decision approach in real-world situations. In order to address this problem, Munter pioneered a new approach in avalanche awareness education by introducing the Reduction Method (Munter 1997), a simplified decision aid for recreational backcountry skiers. Instead of training skiers to become avalanche forecasters, his goal was to reduce avalanche fatalities by providing users with easy to understand decision rules to help them avoid situations that had led to avalanche accidents in the past. This rule- based approach to avalanche education was quickly adopted in numerous European countries (Larcher 1999; Bolognesi 2000; Engler and Mersch 2000); however, it ini- tially only received limited attention in North America (McCammon 2000, 2002). The tragic winter of 2003, when 29 recreationists perished in avalanches in western Canada, rekindled the North American interest in rule-based decision methods for amateur recreationists. However, considerable differences in backcountry activities and avalanche warning systems between Europe and Canada precluded a direct adoption of an existing decision aid. Detailed knowledge of the target audiences’ existing decision-making capabilities and deficiencies is a prerequisite for the development of an effective decision aid. In this study, we use a discrete choice experiment (DCE; Louviere et al. 2000), a stated preference technique, to examine how amateur recreationists choose backcountry trip destinations under varying avalanche conditions. We are particularly interested in how amateur recreationists interpret avalanche hazard information, how they combine this information with the characteristics of potential destinations and how they balance their recreational goals with avalanche safety concerns. While DCEs are commonly used to elicit choice preferences, the examination of decision skills is a novel application of this method. In order to validate the observed decision patterns, we included a sample of professional mountain guides in the study to elicit a standard for informed decision- making in avalanche terrain. In addition to the baseline assessment, we examine the effect of a hypothetical decision aid on the decision preferences of amateur recreationists. In summary, this research builds on existing research on individual behaviour regarding natural hazards by examining the following questions: a) Can a stated choice approach be used to effectively study the decision-making process of choosing a trip destination under varying avalanche conditions? b) What are the weaknesses in the decision-making process of the three primary amateur backcountry user groups? c) What are the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial

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