Bridging the gap to a sustainable future Why advancing the biorefining platform is essential for a carbon-neutral world Contents 1 Executive summary 4 2 The green energy matrix 6 3 The biorefining platform 8 4 Sustainable use of bio- feedstock within global limits 18 5 Biorefining’s current and potential future contributions 20 6 Conclusions 24 7 References 25 8 Appendix A: Overview of biorefining technologies 27 9 Appendix B: Overview of transport technologies 29 10 Appendix C: Life cycle GHG emissions from light duty vehicles (without CCS) 32 11 Appendix D: Life cycle GHG emissions from light duty vehicles (with CCS) 35 12 Appendix E: The IEA 2-degree scenario (2DS) 42 13 Appendix F: Estimation of average life cycle emissions from European ethanol 46 4 Bridging the gap to a sustainable future 1. Executive summary The world is only at the beginning of a transformative battle against climate change. To win, small-scale changes driven by individuals or individual companies are not enough. We need to commit to industrial strategies and policy frameworks that can deliver both economic growth and lower carbon emissions. What’s more, we need to take action today. Global carbon emissions hit a record high in 2017. With the current trajectory, the CO2 budget leading to a 2-degree Celsius rise may be exceeded within the next 20 years. And with the rising temperatures comes a higher probability of extreme climate events at enormous cost and suffering. What can we do to move faster towards finding solutions to climate change? It is clear that there is no silver bullet. The most effective pathway to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and GHG emissions must include multiple technologies working together. This is especially true in those sectors that are hard to abate. The path forward is of course difficult to define without clear identification of end points, and without knowing which technologies will eventually succeed in the marketplace. Using expert energy analyses of future scenarios that achieve a climate target of maximum 2-degree temperature rise, we present a vision that defines a pragmatic yet radical path forward. This vision unites green technologies in an energy matrix that capitalizes on the complementarity of green electrons and green carbon. The technologies are used to produce power, fuel, and hydrocarbon feedstock useful in many different sectors. A key first battlefield for reducing carbon emissions is today’s transport sector. Transportation accounts for about 25% of total energy-related global CO2 emissions, and its contribution will only increase with time. Carbon-neutral electrification of, for example, passenger cars holds great promise as a solution for decarbonizing transport. The technology and its commercialization have made impressive strides in the last two decades. We should continue to encourage its aggressive growth. But the route of carbon-neutral electrification cannot succeed on its own in the time we have to mitigate climate change. Economic growth in developing countries could double the number of passenger cars from 1 to 2 billion in just a few decades, and other types of transport are not as easily electrified. This means a continued dependence on liquid fuels for a long time to come. Thus many energy analyses agree that additional solutions are necessary to complement carbon-neutral electrification. These include better engine efficiency, sustainable low-carbon fuels, and developments in drive systems for road, sea, and air transport. Even if all but niche segments in transport are electrified in the future, there will still be demand for green hydrocarbon feedstocks for chemicals and materials. The best way to make sure those feedstocks are competitive in the long term is to use and facilitate the power of scale from low-carbon fuel technologies today. Bridging the gap to a sustainable future 5 Our vision is more than a set of complementary weapons for the battle against climate change. It is also rooted in what we know works. For each of the key solutions, there is already a portfolio of technologies proven at commercial scale. The cost of most of these technologies is often higher compared to the fossil fuel option. But the reason is simply that they haven’t been optimized continuously for more than a century like the petrochemical industry. The good news is that experience and investment will bring costs down, and the development of new industries will bring global economic growth. The good news doesn’t stop there. The complementary relationship between carbon-neutral electrification and sustainable bio-based technologies can prove useful in supporting integrated solutions that would improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase reliability throughout the entire energy matrix. For example, the intermittency of wind and solar could be balanced by storable solid or gaseous fuels, co-produced with liquid fuels from sustainable bio-feedstocks. And CO2 captured from biorefineries can be used with hydrogen from renewable electricity in power-to-X processes that further enable long-term energy storage, provide low-carbon fuels, and improve biorefining carbon efficiency. Alternatively, captured CO2 can be stored to generate negative emissions, which will most likely be needed to achieve international climate targets. Ultimately, our vision is centered around the complementarity of green technologies in an energy matrix that can boost economic growth and jumpstart our journey towards addressing climate change. The following report describes how sustainable biorefining is an integral piece in this vision, and how urgently we need to advance the industry to meet international climate targets. We invite all stakeholders to join us in this vision and to extend it with their own. We also urge industry, government, financial institutions, and research organizations to hasten the continued development and deployment of such technologies through collaboration and policy frameworks. The battle may be difficult, and there may be friction between allies, but these are surmountable obstacles that should not deter us from our common goal. This document is available at www.novozymes.com/bioenergy for all to access and use without restrictions. 6 Bridging the gap to a sustainable future 2. The green energy matrix Central to our vision is an energy matrix of complementary green technologies (Fig. 1). The majority of the technologies are proven at commercial scale and play major roles in expert analyses that outline what’s needed to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees. This illustration is limited in scope to end-use only in the transport, chemical and feed sectors. Our vision, on the other hand, is based on expert ana lyses that address a broader scope including all uses of heat, power, and fuels. Wind turbines and solar photovoltaics are the primary source of renewable power in the green energy matrix. Broad consensus is that a future carbon-neutral economy relies heavily on these technologies. To actually achieve a carbon-neutral economy will require significant growth of these technologies, along with solutions to balance daily and seasonal fluctuations. Combined heat and power (CHP) plants based on sustainably-sourced biomass are an immediate solution to phase out coal (where relevant) and provide flexibility. In the future, as wind and solar electrification comes to drive the power and heating sectors, biomass CHP may become an important source of electricity to balance longer-term fluctuations. Biorefining based on sustainably-sourced bio-feedstock is the primary source of low-carbon fuels in the envisioned green energy matrix. Its products are available today, and offer low-carbon alternatives to replace or blend with typical petroleum-based products such as gas, liquid fuels, and hydrocarbon feedstocks for chemicals and materials. Additional details on biorefining technologies are available in Appendix A. Power-to-X is a promising portfolio of technologies and pathways that in the future could offer long-term energy storage. Power-to-X utilizes renewable power to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The hydrogen can then be stored and reconverted to power, or it can be further processed with CO2 to yield a wide range of hydrocarbon products, including fuels and hydrocarbon feedstocks. Carbon-capture and storage (CCS) or utilization (CCU) is likely an important contributor towards sufficient reduction in carbon emissions. When combined with biorefining or biomass-fired power stations, CCS (in this case called BECCS) enables negative carbon emissions. According to most IPCC emission scenarios, negative carbon emissions are needed to meet a target of maximum 2-degree temperature increase. Bridging the gap to a sustainable future 7 Additional valuable technologies Not shown in the illustrated matrix are other GHG-neutral energy sources, as well as solutions for future grid management: Hydro power is a major source of power in relevant regions. It will likely continue to be so in the future, particularly as a solution to balance an electricity grid powered by variable wind and solar. Nuclear power is generally considered a reliable base load source of electricity, given its low variable costs and high fixed costs. In the future, there will likely be improvements in the adaptability of nuclear power plants to be able to adjust to variations in power supply and demand. Battery power storage, long-distance power transmission, and demand-side management in a smart grid are technologies that hold significant potential in the future as economical solutions for energy management. Wind Windpower Sun Solarpower Balanced smart grid Bio-feedstock CHP CO Combustibles and/or biogas Power-to-X Carbon storage Biorefinery Liquid and gaseous fuels Materials and feed Fig. 1: The green energy matrix 8 Bridging the gap to a sustainable future 3. The biorefining platform The appeal of biorefining rests on the utilization of nature’s own intelligent carbon-capture technology. Because of this, biorefining plays a crucial role in the reduction of global carbon emissions and holds great potential to continue delivering even lower carbon emissions in the future.