Monitoring and Evaluation - IF K Great Stoke

A sum of £30k has been included in the scheme costs to funs the evaluation activity once the construction project has closed. The post-project evaluation activity is the responsibility of the Project Sponsor, and is expected to be reported to the funding authority, WECA, at prescribed intervals. The monitoring and evaluation plan is set out in the following section.

1. Scheme background and context This highway improvement scheme has been proposed to increase capacity at the Great Stoke roundabout and alleviate the traffic flow issues with the junction and subsequent local highway network. The proposal looks to include enhanced pedestrian and cyclist crossing facilities, resulting in a reduction in congestion within the area. It will also contribute to relieving the current constraints to the comprehensive sustainability transport package for the Enterprise Area and Cribbs/Pathway New Neighbourhood (CPNN). Doing so will enable housing and job development plans in the adjoined areas, promote connectivity between these locations and key trip attractors and expand the economic hub that is the North Fringe of .

Milestone completion dates Baseline month/year Actual completion Outline business case Approval January 2019 January 2019 Submission of full business case July 2019 July 2019 Full Business Case Approval October 2019 Programme Start Q3 2019/20 Programme Scheme Completion Q3 2020/21 Handover, Closure & Final Q2 2021/22 Accounts

Summarise based on material already in Strategic Case 2. Logic Model

Logic Model

Context and Rationale Economic growth and housing delivery within the West of is partly being inhibited by a lack of improvements to transport infrastructure. Cribbs / New Neighbourhood (CPNN) has been identified within South Council’s Core Strategy as being a significant development site, contributing an approximate 7,500 dwellings to the regions housing targets. Further, Filton Enterprise Area (FEA) has been highlighted within the West of England’s Spatial Plan as being a fundamental employment generating site. The ‘Unlocking Our Potential: The Economic Benefits of transport Investment in the West of England’ study undertaken found that without significant improvements to transport infrastructure only a small proportion of the economic impacts forecasted at FEA could materialise.

Great Stoke Roundabout is a critical junction linking both residential and employment areas with each other, as well as to both strategic and local road networks. The Roundabout currently experiences delays to traffic with forecasts illustrating this to worsen as local developments materialise. Improvements to this roundabout are part of a wider range of complementary transport measures that will support growth at FEA/CPNN. These improvements cannot be funded solely through the private sector, public sector investment is required as well. This is because the scheme will benefit individuals using all modes of travel that are seeking to access the local region, rather than just connecting individuals to a particular development site. Thus, public funding is being sought.

Objectives Resources/ Input Activities Outputs Direct & Indirect Outcomes Impact The aims/ objectives of the scheme are: In order to achieve the set of activities to In order to address the aims and objectives We expect that, once accomplished these We expect that if accomplished these We expect that if accomplished these (Ensure that all aims/objectives are fulfil these aims/ objectives we need the we will accomplish the following activities: activities will produce the following outputs will lead to the following change activities will lead to the following changes SMART) following: (What will the money be used for? e.g. deliverables: e.g. new products or services, skills, in service, organisation or community: (Resources should not be limited to money construction, project management, (Provide measurable outputs e.g. length of behaviour, new business/contracts, etc: (quantitative economic impacts e.g. e.g. grant, match funding, in-kind, project equipment/fit out, etc): new road/cycle path, m2 of space (Ensure that all outcomes are SMART and indirect jobs and/or GVA to be cross- team, specialist support, etc. The inputs constructed/refurbished, number of relevant to the aims/objectives to allow for referenced with FBC as appropriate) define the scope of the project being businesses supported, learners engaged, attribution; distinguish between direct and considered in the logic model ) etc) indirect outcomes) In comparison with ‘do nothing’ and • Feasibility Support (and M&E Plan) - • Design • Improved cycle / pedestrian facilities • Reduced emissions • Highway journey time savings of taking account of future growth: • Construction Costs including inflation – • Utilities through the introduction of 4 Toucan • Reduced conflict between cyclists and £9.9m (over 60 years) • Consultant support - • Construction including inflation – crossings motorised users within the • Increase in active mode, through • Reduce the congestion expected at a • Scheme funding • Project Management • Increase from two to three lanes on roundabout increased pedestrian and cyclists key junction in the local highway • Project team (e.g. design and • Environmental mitigation the circulatory and all approaches • Reduced MetroBus delays in the • Land Value Uplift estimated at £6.2m network by increasing capacity engineering) • M&E through widening and amendments to vicinity of the roundabout by 5 seconds for housing and £0.56m for • Improve transport network resilience • Stakeholder and public support road markings. (southbound) and 58 seconds employment land and journey time reliability • Provision of lane markings within the (northbound) by 2036, within the • Gross Value Added estimated at • Increase accessibility and circulatory to guide traffic flows; vicinity of the roundabout compared to £9.6m (2015 prices) attractiveness of sustainable travel • Provision of a maintenance lay-by near a do nothing approach. • Support MetroBus routes by choices though enhancing crossing the Toucan crossing on both arms of • Reduced mean network delay of improving reliability facilities Winterbourne road; and around 30 seconds, and reduced • Additional indirect job provision • Reduced vehicular emissions • Relocation of cycle access ramp on vehicle delay hours of approximately associated with construction of the Great Stoke Way 100 hours by 2036 (AM peak) and 70 scheme hours (PM Peak) • Improved air quality • 108 gross new dwellings enabled across CPNN/FEA • Gross mixed use 3,059 sq m of commercial floorspace enabled

3. Evaluation design and methodologies

Evaluation Questions The evaluation undertaken will be a combination of process evaluation and an outcome based evaluation.

The process evaluation will focus on the delivery of the project as well as elements of the project management. The process evaluation will seek to address the following key questions:

1. Was the project delivered on the budget allocated? 2. Was the construction of the roundabout on time, as per the details in the schedule? 3. What are the lessons learnt surrounding programme delivery, taking into account feedback from key stakeholders?

The remaining questions will relate to the outcomes of the project. The questions designed are as follows:

1. Were the proposed outputs delivered? 2. To what level did the estimated impacts materialise? 3. Can the impacts generated be attributable to Great Stoke Roundabout improvement?

Audience

The monitoring and evaluation plan generated for the Great Stoke Roundabout scheme will be of interest to the following:

• West of England Local Enterprise Partnership Board – baseline report, Year 1 and Year 3 evaluation reports • Stakeholders within Council – baseline report, summary of the Year 1 and 3 reports • Wider public sector bodies – baseline report, summary of the year 1 and 3 reports • Stakeholders at CPNN/FEA – baseline report, summary of the year 1 and 3 reports

4. Data requirements 4.1 For schemes fully or part-funded via the Local Growth Fund only N/A 4.2 Data collection methods

Construction and Project Management

Information around the budget and time frame taken to complete the construction activities will be obtained from the relevant departments within South Gloucestershire Council, primarily from supplier invoices, PM input and yearly grant claims. This data will be collected throughout the construction stage, until the completion of the scheme. Benefit realisation will be monitored at year 3 after the scheme opening.

Transport Economic Impacts

To assess the transport economic impacts in Year 3, it is proposed that the impact of the roundabout improvements on journeys times is monitored. This will be done using TomTom travel time data and mobile phone GPS data.

Doc v22 Last updated Aug 2017 To assess the reliability of the MetroBus service, it is proposed that Real Time Information is obtained from MetroBus operator. Analysis of this data will be used to determine whether the scheme aided with a reduction in time savings for the MetroBus compared with the likely journey times in future if the scheme was not undertaken. Automatic Traffic Count or Manual Classified Counts and queue length surveys, combined with the journey time data these surveys will provide an indication of changes in congestion, network resilience and reliability. These will also be conducted in Year 3 to update the traffic model to generate a revised BCR in Year 3.

Data to monitor the reduction in emissions will be obtained from Air Quality Monitors within the vicinity of the roundabout, this data will be collected in Year 3 to compare against the baseline scenario.

Further, pedestrian and cycle counts will be required in Year 3 to monitor the change in active modes. Information from the council’s delivery will also inform whether the proposed levels of crossings have been constructed.

Baseline data is currently available for accidents from the Personal Injury Collision data set, this data will be required to be collected again at Yr 3 to analyse the impact the roundabout improvement has on accident reduction.

Wider Economic Impacts

To assess whether the quantum of housing and commercial floorspace has been delivered, it is suggested that discussions with key stakeholders at CPNN/FEA take place to monitor this output at Yr 3. The Council Tax register can also be monitored at those key stages to understand how many new homes are registered at the development site. Further, some of this key information could be obtained from the developers detailed plans as well. The Office of Valuation Office Agency database could be reviewed to estimate the amount of floorspace enabled at the development site

Employment levels at CPNN/FEA are to be monitored in Yr 3. This will rely on discussions between the monitoring and evaluation team and key stakeholders at CPNN/FEA. Furthermore, a desk-based review of data sets such as the Business Register Survey in Yr 3 will be used to inform the employment levels within the monitoring and evaluation plan. Business intelligence can also be utilised to monitor the change in the employment levels at the development sites in Yr 3.

4.3 Data collection and establishing the baseline

Metric Unit Frequency Data source Baseline Reporting to? (inc. Target) (& Responsibility) date Inputs Expenditure £, by Quarterly until Jacobs, supplier invoices; Q3 2019 Baseline Report, (forecast vs source scheme yearly grant claims – Yr 1 evaluation outturn) completed and finance officer report Outputs Commercial m2 Baseline, Detailed design plans – Q3 2019 Baseline Report floorspace – 4,078 + Year 3 after main building contractor, and Yr3 opening discussions with key stakeholders at CPNN/FEA. Valuation Office Agency floorspace data. 126 gross new No of Baseline, Review of the council tax Q3 2019 Baseline report dwellings homes register, and discussions and Yr3

Doc v22 Last updated Aug 2017 + Year 3 after with key stakeholders at opening CPNN/FEA

Improved No of Baseline, South Gloucestershire Q3 2019 Baseline report cycle/pedestrian toucan + Year 3 after Council highways team and Yr3 facilities crossing opening s Average travel Minutes Baseline TomTom travel time Q3 2019 Baseline report times / average / MPH + Year 3 after data/mobile phone GPS and Yr3 speed opening data

Outcomes and impacts Construction Stage # FTES Baseline and Construction firm Q3 2019 Baseline report, Yr jobs quarterly until invoices; 1 evaluation construction is report completed Number of jobs # FTES Baseline, Analysis of publicly Q3 2019 Baseline report enabled at + Year 3 after available data sets such and Yr 3 development sites opening as Business Register and evaluation report Employment Survey, discussions with key stakeholders at CPNN/FEA Increase in active Baseline Pedestrian and cycle Q3 2019 Baseline report modes +Year 3 after count at Great Stoke and Yr 3 opening Roundabout

Reduced Baseline Personal Injury Collision Q1 2010 Baseline report Pedestrian/Cyclist + Year 3 after (PIC) data and Yr 3 collisions opening evaluation report

Reduced emissions Baseline Air Quality Monitoring Q3 2019 Baseline report + Year 3 after station and Yr 3 opening evaluation report

Reduced Minutes Baseline Real Time Information Q3 2019 Baseline report MetroBus delays + Year 3 after from METROBUS, and Yr 3 opening relating to Great Stoke evaluation report Roundabout Journey Time Minutes Baseline TomTom travel time Q3 2019 Baseline report Savings + Year 3 after data/mobile phone GPS and Yr 3 opening data evaluation report

5. Delivery plan

The delivery plan to conduct the monitoring and evaluation activities can be seen below:

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Year Year Year Year Year Years 0 C1 O1 O2 O3 201 202 202 202 202 Tasks 9/2 0/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 0 1 3 4 5 Full Business Case Approval Develop Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Develop baseline report Construction activities (detailed programme) Process monitoring: construction stage Process evaluation (final): construction stage Y1 Process evaluation: project management Y1 Y3 (benefit realisation) Impact evaluation: environment (outputs, Y3 outcomes and impacts) Impact evaluation (final): transport (outputs, Y3 outcomes and impacts) Impact evaluation (final): economic Y3 development (outputs, outcomes and impacts) Economic evaluation (final): value for money Y3

Key Construction activities (detailed programme

provided elsewhere) Funding approval Monitoring and evaluation tasks which will be

delivered over the years

The initial task as per the delivery plan would be to begin populating the baseline report. The information contained within this would be sourced from reports and data that is currently available, as well as undertaking further analysis of the baseline where necessary.

During the construction stage the outturn costs will be monitored against the delivery budget, as well as a monitoring scheme delivery relative to the programme. After the completion of the scheme, a process evaluation will be undertaken in Year 1. This will cover the construction stage, as well as the project management.

In year 3 an assessment will be undertaken across the following categories, transport, economic development and environmental. The evaluation will cover in detail the outputs, outcomes and impacts across those themes. The process evaluation for project management and economic evaluation for value for money will utilise the more detailed approach to impact evaluation to provide better estimates for benefits realisation and BCR refinement.

6. Resourcing and Governance

The cost associated with the resources required to undertake the Monitoring and Evaluation activities have been built into the project costs. The table below illustrates the breakdown by working days required to undertake the Monitoring and Evaluation. A significant amount of the overall physical and financial resource pool will be used to monitor the transport and economic development impacts. Given that the transport and economic development impacts/outcomes will not be monitored until year 3 majority of the costs will not be

Doc v22 Last updated Aug 2017 incurred until then. To undertake the Monitoring and Evaluation it is envisaged that 33 working days will be required.

Evaluation Categories Year 1 Year 3 Process: Construction 2 0 Process: Project Management 1 1 Impacts: Economic Development 0 6 Impacts: Transport 0 15 Impacts: Environment 0 2 Economic: Value for Money 1 1 Reporting 1 3 Total Days 5 28 Consultant Budget (£’000) 4 16

SGC’s Supervision Budget (£’000) 10 Total Budget (£’000) 30

A risk management register will be developed to supplement the Monitoring and Evaluation activities. This will be driven through the development and frequent monitoring of a risk register, with a summary of which being disseminated to the project manager and key stakeholders.

The project sponsor is Richard Gillingham from South Gloucestershire Council. He will take the responsibility for overseeing the overall project, as well as the generation of a monitoring and evaluation plan.

SGC’s Transport Monitoring Team will be responsible for overseeing the management of the M&E activities and quality checks on the data collected and reported. This will be done through the use of South Gloucestershire Council’s own traffic engineers and transport specialists. This will ensure the production of a robust monitoring and evaluation plan.

Named M&E contact from the Council:

Richard Gillingham. MSc. CMILT. Major Projects Senior Responsible Officer South Gloucestershire Council Department for Environment and Community Services Transport and Strategic Projects PO Box 1954 Bristol BS37 0DD

Tel. 01454 864448 (Based at Badminton Road Offices)

7. Dissemination

The findings from the evaluation will be used to shape the designs and delivery mechanisms of future roundabout improvement schemes within the region. Further, data on the impact of the scheme will be used to support the research into the needs of the diverse consumer groups.

Doc v22 Last updated Aug 2017 Reports produced are to be shared with the West of England Combined Authority. It will be the responsibility of the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan lead to circulate the reports produced at various intervals. These reports will include the Baseline report, the Year 1 and Year 3 Monitoring and Evaluation Reports.

The following key stakeholders will also be provided a summary of the various reports produced: • Stakeholders within South Gloucestershire Council • Wider public sector bodies • Stakeholders at CPNN/FEA

The evaluation can also be used a case study from which good practices can be adopted and applied to Monitoring and Evaluation Plans that are conducted within the West of England in the future.

Doc v22 Last updated Aug 2017