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Study on Environmental Risk Assessment of Oil Spill Accidents in Shanghai Port World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations Maritime Safety & Environment Management 8-24-2014 Study on environmental risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Shanghai Port Jingzhou Chang Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.wmu.se/msem_dissertations Part of the Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, and the Risk Analysis Commons This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. bu WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Dalian, China STUDY ON ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF OIL SPILL ACCIDENTS IN SHANGHAI PORT By Chang Jingzhou The People’s Republic of China A research paper submitted to the World Maritime University in partial Fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE (MARITIME SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENT MANAGEMENT) 2014 Copyright Chang Jingzhou, 2014 i DECLARATION I certify that all the materials in this research paper that are not my own work have been identified, and that no material is included for which a degree has previously been conferred on me. The contents of this research paper reflect my own personal views, and are not necessarily endorsed by the University. (Signature): Chang Jingzhou (Date): July 10, 2014 Supervised by: Wu Wanqing Professor of Dalian Maritime University ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my gratitude to China Maritime Safety Administration and Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration for nominating me to attend this MSEM programme to expand the horizons of maritime knowledge. The greatest gratitude goes to Mr. Xia Darong, my leader-the director of Shanghai Pudong Maritime Safety Administration. He recommended me to attend the project of MSEM 2014 and encouraged me in further study and career development. His advices and his help always gave me strong spiritual power during the whole MSEM programme. My sincere thanks must also be given to my research paper supervisor, Professor Wu Wanqing, Dalian Maritime University. His scientific guidance and constructive advice urge me to overcome lots of the difficulties I encountered in this paper. I am also willing to convey my special thanks to all of the professors in this MSEM programme, whose professional teaching has not only considerably improved my knowledge but also greatly benefited this dissertation. Finally, I would like to express deepest gratitude to my wife and my daughter for enduring a long period in my absence and for providing unconditional support and inspiration. Thank you all very much! iii ABSTRACT Title of Research Paper: Study on Environmental Risk Assessment of Oil Spill Accidents in Shanghai Port Degree: MSc With the development of marine transportation and Shanghai’s economy in recent years, there exists high contamination risk of ship oil spill in Shanghai Port waters. However, ship oil spills accidents not only cause serious marine environment pollution and damage marine ecosystems, but also bring huge economic losses. Therefore, carrying out the study of ship oil spill risk assessment, identifying and analyzing the reasons of oil spills in Shanghai Port, discriminating accident pollution characteristics and the degree of harm, and putting forward corresponding precautions to reducing the pollution hazard have very important theoretical significance and practical value to promote the construction of Shanghai Port ship oil spill pollution emergency capacity and reduce the losses caused by the oil spill pollution as soon as possible. This thesis first introduces the behavior of oil spill and the research status, and the environmental risk assessment research status quo of oil spill. According to the Shanghai Port transportation status and development planning, through statistical analysis of vessel traffic flow data and the oil spill history records, some important risk parameters are identified and determined. Collision and improper operation is respectively the main reason of accidental oil spills and operational oil spills in Shanghai Port. It can be seen that the probability of happening operational oil spills iv is higher than accidental oil spills. But, the harmful consequence of accidental oil spills is very serious. Then based on Dr. Zheng wenbo’s theory, the oil spill drift-diffusion model and the oil spill weathering model are established. On that basis, it uses the typical scenario simulation method and random scenario statistics method combined with hydrological and meteorological conditions to forecast oil spill hazards. Also it proposes new oil spill harmful consequences exponential model which can take into account oil spill quantity, sensitivity to environmental protection goals, and the probability of contamination at the same time. At last, by adopting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), combined with traffic management situation and oil spill response capability situation of Shanghai Port waters, this thesis analyzes the exiting main problems from two risk factors (reducing the happening frequency of oil spills and reducing the harmful consequences of the oil spill), and put forward the corresponding risk preventive measures. Key Words: Ship oil spill; Risk assessment; Shanghai Port waters; Prediction model; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Emergency response capability; Prevention measures and suggestion. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration ii Acknowledgement iii Abstract iv Table of Contents v i List of Tables x List of Figures x ii List of Abbreviations xi ii 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background and Significance 1 1.2 The behavior of oil spill and the research status 3 1.2.1 The behavior of oil spill 3 1.2.2 The research status 5 1.3 Environmental risk assessment research status quo of oil spill 8 1.3.1 The content of the environmental risk assessment of 8 oil spill 1.3.2 International oil spill environmental risk assessment 9 research status 1.3.3 Domestic oil spill environmental risk assessment 10 methods 1.4 Research contents of the thesis 10 2. An overview of Shanghai Port 10 2.1 Traffic situation of Shanghai Port 11 2.1.1 Port condition 11 2.1.2 Wharf condition 11 vi 2.1.3 Channel condition 11 2.1.4 Anchorage condition 12 2.2 Natural condition of Shanghai Port 12 2.2.1 Meteorological condition 12 2.2.2 Hydrological condition 13 2.3 Sensitive resources situation 13 2.3.1 Natural conservation area 13 2.3.2 Source of drinking water 13 2.3.3 Tourism resources 14 2.3.4 Conservation of aquatic resources 14 2.4 Vessel traffic flow 14 2.5 The numbers and characteristics of ship oil spill accidents in 15 Shanghai Port 2.6 Analysis on the probability of ship oil spill accident 17 3. Ship oil spill risk assessment in Shanghai Port 18 3.1 Overview 18 3.2 Prediction model of spreading of ship oil spill in Shanghai Port 19 3.2.1 Technology quantitative model of ship oil spill 19 accident 3.2.2 Principle of simulation model 20 3.2.3 Simulation model in the application of correction 21 3.2.4 Numerical computing method of the simulation 22 model 3.2.5 Ship oil spill accident technical quantitative models 23 applied 3.3 Shanghai Port ship oil risk assessment model 25 vii 3.3.1 The theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) 26 3.3.2 AHP apply in ship oil spill risk assessment in 31 Shanghai Port 3.4 Revise ship oil spill pollution hazard assessment model 37 3.5 Calculation examples 40 4. Prevention measures and suggestions 43 4.1 The status quo of ship oil spill pollution prevention and 44 emergency response in Shanghai Port 4.1.1 The status quo of ship oil spill pollution prevention in 44 Shanghai Port 4.1.2 The status quo of ship oil spill pollution emergency 45 response in Shanghai Port 4.2 The problems existing in the ship oil spill emergency prevention 46 and disposal in Shanghai Port 4.2.1 The marine environmental administrative law system 47 is still imperfect 4.2.2 Existing structural contradictions between port 47 economic layout and ship pollution prevention 4.2.3 Emergency response capacity is not enough to cope 48 with major pollution accident 4.3 Ship oil spill pollution prevention and emergency response 48 suggestion 4.3.1 Shanghai ship oil spill pollution prevention 48 suggestion 4.3.2 Using economic leverage and technical means to 50 improve the level of ship oil spill pollution viii prevention 4.3.3 Establish oil pollution damage compensation fund 51 5. Conclusions 52 References 54 Appendices 58 Appendix 1 Shanghai Port ship oil spill accidents data--2004-2013 58 ix LIST OF TABLES Table2-1 Shanghai Port vessel traffic flow. 15 Table2-2 The numbers and characteristics of ship oil spill in Shanghai Port 15 from 2004 to 2013. Table3-1 The general form of the judgment matrix 28 Table3-2 Judgment matrix scale and its meaning 28 Table3-3 Random consistency index-RI 30 Table3-4 The level B of total sorts of weights 30 Table3-5 Ship oil spill hazard assessment index class hierarchy 33 Table3-6 Shanghai Port ship oil spill risk assessment judgment matrix 34 Table3-7 Shanghai Port ship oil spill safety hazard judgment matrix 34 Table3-8 Shanghai Port ship oil spill pollution hazard assessment 34 judgment matrix Table3-9 Shanghai Port ship oil spill risk assessment judgment matrix 34 (hazard to people)
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