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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Friday, June 26, 2020 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Friday, June 26, 2020 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Will the Pandemic Controversial New CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Penal Code Takes Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Increase Migration Effect in Honduras JPMorgan Chase & Co. A new code, which has provisions Paula Cifuentes that include shortening sentences Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, in Latin America? for some corruption-related Latin America & Canada, Philip Morris International crimes, took effect in Honduras Marlene Fernández despite opposition lawmakers’ Corporate Vice President for last-minute attempts to scrap it. Government Relations, Page 2 Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim President Emeritus, BUSINESS Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak Chile Regulator President, Boeing Latin America Files Charges Jon E. Huenemann Former Corporate and Against Codelco Government Senior Executive Chile’s environmental regulator James R. Jones said it had filed charges against Chairman, state mining company Codelco Monarch Global Strategies Countries in Latin America are bracing for higher levels of migration due to the Covid-19 pan- over a spill and contamination. Craig A. Kelly demic. Migrants in Mexico are pictured above. // File Photo: Mexican Government. Senior Director, Americas Page 2 Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Chilean senators on June 8 reopened debate over legislation John Maisto POLITICAL Director, U.S. Education to increase restrictions on migration given concerns that the Finance Group country could see an influx of migrants after the coronavirus Mexico’s Covid Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Q pandemic eases. A report by the Department of Migration Death Toll Exceeds Grupo Marhnos predicted that, without new restrictions, as many as 250,000 migrants 25,000, Finance Thomas F. McLarty III Chairman, could enter Chile annually as the country’s economy is expected to have Minister Positive McLarty Associates a quicker rebound than those of its neighbors. How likely are Chile and Mexico’s confirmed death toll Carlos Paz-Soldan Partner, other countries in the region to see a sharp rise in immigration levels, from Covid-19 has risen past DTB Associates, LLP and what factors will drive those flows? What pressures will an increase 25,000, and its number of con- Beatrice Rangel firmed cases surpassed 200,000. Director, in migrants put on the receiving nations? What should countries in the Finance Minister Arturo Herrera AMLA Consulting LLC region be doing now in order to prepare? said he tested positive with Jaana Remes “minor” symptoms. Partner, Page 2 McKinsey Global Institute Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances and Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue: “The Economics, Citi Chilean government’s reactions are not accidental, particular- Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, ly because over the past five years, several South American Envases Venezolanos A countries have faced a significant wave of immigration amounting to Andrés Rozental at least five million people from fragile states such as Venezuela, Haiti, President, Rozental & Asociados Nicaragua and other Central American countries. Hence, they expect Shelly Shetty mobility to occur from other countries, but the severity of the economic Managing Director, Sovereigns Fitch Ratings impact of the pandemic is such that people won’t consider emigrating un- til the economic recovery begins. Other countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia were already exploring ways to restrict migration prior to the pandemic, and their fears have now heightened. The Herrera // File Photo: Mexican timing to restrict migration may serve to quiet populist adventures, but Government. Continued on page 2 COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, June 26, 2020 POLITICAL NEWS Herrera was in contact with President Andrés NEWS BRIEFS Manuel López Obrador, who has refused to Mexico’s Covid Death wear a face mask, the Associated Press re- Brazilian University ported. So far, Herrera is Mexico’s highest-level in Talks to Test Potential Toll Surpasses 25,000, cabinet member to have tested positive for the novel coronavirus. The head of Mexico’s Social Coronavirus Vaccine Finance Chief Positive Security Institute previously tested positive but Brazil’s Federal University of São Paulo is later returned to work. in talks to test a possible Covid-19 vaccine Mexico’s confirmed death toll from Covid-19 developed by researchers in Italy, Reuters re- surpassed 25,000, and its number of confirmed Controversial New ported Thursday. Brazil, which has the world’s cases of the disease exceeded 200,000 on second-highest number of confirmed cases Thursday, the Associated Press reported. The Penal Code Takes and deaths from the disease, after the United country’s health department reported 6,104 States, has become a main front in the race for new infections in the previous 24 hours, one Effect in Honduras a vaccine. The researchers from Italy’s Lazzaro of the highest daily increases so far during Spallanzani National Institute want to conduct A controversial new penal code, which among midstage trials and Phase III studies that From this moment, other things shortens sentences for some would involve thousands of Brazilians, said the I will be in corruption-related crimes, took effect in Brazilian university’s president, Soraya Smaili. Honduras on Thursday despite last-minute quarantine...” efforts by opposition lawmakers to repeal it, — Arturo Herrera the Associated Press reported. The new code Peru Bans Mass sparked public debate in the Central Ameri- the pandemic. Mexico also recorded 736 new can country, with some arguing it’s a needed Gatherings at Least deaths on Thursday. In the Americas, only the modernization while critics blast as it a step Until Fourth Quarter United States and Brazil have higher total death backward in the fight against corruption, EFE Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra said tolls. Also on Thursday, Mexican Finance Minis- reported. The previous penal code had been in Thursday that mass gatherings in the Andean ter Arturo Herrera confirmed that he had tested place for 30 years, and although Congress had nation will remain prohibited until at least the positive for the disease, Reuters reported. In amended it several times, those additions had last quarter of this year, state-run news agency a posting on Twitter, Herrera said he had only created more problems, including dispropor- Andina reported. Vizcarra also announced “minor” symptoms. “From this moment, I will tional penalties and clashes with existing that the government’s Council of Ministers is be in quarantine and continue working from my legislation, according to some lawmakers, El to meet today to discuss the measures that house,” said Herrera. It is unclear how recently Heraldo reported. Civic groups and interna- will be implemented starting July 1, as the country’s state of national emergency is set to FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 end on June 30. the main challenge is to focus on cooper- programs on migrant economic and social ation among countries to address the root integration, accompanied by economic stabi- causes of migration in those fragile states lization plans in the migrant host countries, Chile Environmental while also recognizing that migrant integra- leveraging remittances, nostalgic trade, and Regulator Files Charges tion in the Americas is a necessary step to investment as a means to mitigate and break address many of the vulnerabilities these the cycles of fragility in the region.” Against Codelco migrants face. The countries hit hardest by Chile’s environmental regulator on Thursday the pandemic are also those most affected Liliana Meza, professor in the said it had filed charges against state mining by the macroeconomic impact, and migrant masters in migration stud- company Codelco over a 2016 tailing spill as host countries, including Chile, are in a ies program at Universidad well as river and estuary contamination at its position to deal in an organized fashion with A Iberoamericana in Mexico City: Andina mine in an area near Santiago, Reuters the foreign labor force to prevent massive “The financial crisis of 2009-2010 can help reported. The Environmental Superintendent, outflows in the years to come. Cooperation us understand the probable consequences or SMA, said it had received several public includes greater engagement of interna- of the current health crisis on migration complaints over a tailings or mining waste spill tional development institutions to devise flows that enter and leave Mexico, although in April 2016 and of alleged contamination Continued on page 4 in estuary and river water by waste that the company had discharged. COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, June 26, 2020 tional watchdogs have criticized the reforms as they were passed while a number of current THE DIALOGUE CONTINUES and former legislators were under investigation for alleged corruption. Criminal attorney and former federal lawmaker Rasel Tomé said all of Will the USMCA Function the crimes that the new penal code lowers the Well Amid the Pandemic? sentences for are those committed by corrupt officials, the AP reported. Among the crimes The United States-Mexico-Can- some Mexican auto workers. In order to with reduced sentences are those involving the ada Agreement, or USMCA, is qualify for preferential tariff treatment, the misuse of public funds, abuse of authority, in- set to enter into force on July 1, threshold for materials sourced in North fluence trafficking, fraud and illicit enrichment. Q prompting automakers in Mex- America increases from 62.7 percent under The government of President Juan Orlando ico to rush to meet new regional content NAFTA to 75 percent in auto manufactur- Hernández earlier this year did not renew rules while facing additional challenges ing. In addition, 70 percent of the steel and an OAS-sponsored anti-corruption mission’s brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.
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