Investor Presentation with 2019 Financials Executive Summary
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Investor Presentation with 2019 Financials Executive summary Turkey’s growth recovers rapidly, while growth potential remains intact • The Turkish economy presents a strong opportunity among emerging markets due to its large size and highly attractive demographic profile, which are resilient to the transient fluctuations in the economic activity. • On the back of the improvements in the price dynamics, declining inflation expectations and supportive external conditions, the CBRT cut the policy rate by 75 bps in the first MPC meeting of 2020 and 12.75% in total in the five MPC meetings since July 2019. • GDP growth slowed down to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, on account of the relatively tight financial conditions in the first half of 2019. With the easing in the financial conditions in the second half, growth is to gain momentum going forward. One of the Top Performing Banks in the Market • QNB Finansbank is one of the strongest players in this market ranked 5th across most categories amongst privately owned banks • QNB Finansbank has a very strong distribution network balanced between a branch footprint covering 99% of banking business in the market and best in market digital offerings • QNB Finansbank has shown strong financial performance beyond its scale even in the most volatile market conditions, driven by differentiation, adaptability and bringing the right people together Strong Shareholder Supports QNB Finansbank for Future Growth • QNB stands out as the strongest rated main shareholder among Private Turkish Banks • QNB is the largest bank in the Middle East and Africa by all critical measures and has the highest ratings among all banks with a presence in Turkey • QNB’s presence across a wide geography overlaps well with Turkey’s key foreign trade partners, bringing opportunities in this area • QNB Finansbank’s launch of its new brand has been very successful, and is translating to successful expansion of its customer franchise in potential growth areas • Following the QNB acquisition, QNB Finansbank has added a new growth chapter in its successful history, capturing Corporate and Commercial Banking market share, while sustaining its success in Retail and SME Banking 1 Contents 1 Macro-economic Overview 2 QNB Finansbank and QNB Group at a Glance 3 Loan-based Balance Sheet Delivering High Quality Earnings 4 Solid Financial Performance 5 Appendix 2 Macro-economic Overview EUZ: Eurozone PL: Poland SA: South Africa RU: Russia Structurally attractive Turkish economy BR: Brazil TR: Turkey Large economy with low GDP / capita… …and highly attractive demographic profile … generating high real GDP growth GDP # GDP per capita Population by Age Groups GDP Growth average 2010-2018 2018, USD, bn (USD, k) % (2018 estimates CIA World Factbook) % 39.9 9.0 11.3 9.4 15.4 6.4 SA 28 17 42 7 6 6.4 13.639 TR 24 16 43 9 8 BR 22 16 44 9 9 3.5 1.868 1.657 RU 17 9 44 15 15 2.0 1.9 771 1.4 1.4 586 368 PL 15 10 43 14 18 EUZ BR RU TR PL SA 0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65+ TR PL RU SA BR EUZ Low fiscal deficit… … and improved current account balance… … with low public debt Fiscal Deficit / GDP Current Account Balance / GDP Gross Public Debt / GDP 2018, % % 2018, % 2.9 87.9 0.2(1) 84.4 56.7 -2.2(1) -0.4 -0.5 48.9 -1.9 -3.7 -3.8 -3.5 30.2 -4.4 -4.7 14.6 -5.6 -7.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E RU TR PL SA EUZ BR RU PL EU TR SA BR (1) QNB Finansbank projection Source: IMF WEO-Oct19, Turkstat, Treasury, CBRT, CIA World Factbook 4 EUZ: Eurozone PL: Poland SA: South Africa RU: Russia Sound banking system with inherent growth potential BR: Brazil TR: Turkey Relatively low leverage ratio… …and contained NPL levels… … with strong profitability characteristics Leverage ratio(1) NPL ratio(2) Banking Sector Pre-tax RoA(3) Q3’19 Q3’19, % 2010-2019 average, % 15.6 10.1 2.2 11.9 1.5 1.5 10.3 10.0 9.7 1.4 9.0 5.2 0.9 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 EUZ SA PL RU RU TR RU TR PL SA EUZ BR TR BR SA RU PL … with potential to boost lending activity … but particularly in Retail, given its Further growth potential in deposits… across the board, untapped potential. Deposits / GDP Loans / GDP Household debt / GDP Q3’19, % Q3’19, % Q3’19, % 111.5 106.5 49.8 82.3 83.4 34.1 34.0 70.7 61.5 61.6 58.3 53.5 27.0 55.6 48.0 47.0 17.1 12.5 EUZ SA BR PL TR RU EUZ SA TR PL RU BR EUZ PL SA BR RU TR (1) Latest data Nov’19 for TR; Q3’19 for EUZ (for significant institutions as designated by ECB), BR and PL; Q2’19 for SA; and Q4’18 for RU (2) Latest data Nov’19 for TR; Q3’19 for EUZ (for significant institutions as designated by ECB), BR and PL; Q2’19 for SA; and Q4’18 for RU (3) Latest data Q3’19 for BR and PL; Q2’19 for TR and SA; and Q4’18 for RU 5 Source:Thomson Reuters - Data Stream, ECB, BRSA, Turkstat TL stability carried on throughout the front the throughout on carried stability TL 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 July policy rate its cut total by late insince 12.75% CBRT 6 7 8 9 Mar’18 2019 Apr’18 May’18 Jun’18 Jul’18 Aug’18 Note: Sep’18 Oct’18 O/N lending O/N borrowing O/N rate funding Avg. 1 week repo 1 week Late liquidity Late thanks to improving outlook.inflationthanksimproving to 2019in undertakenin12.75% of July five cutstotal,with tighteningrate CBRT 1H’19,reversed the throughout at 24% 1,125bps thecost by fundingaverage CBRT raised Nov’18 Dec’18 Jan’19 Feb’19 Mar’19 Apr’19 May’19 Jun’19 Jul’19 Aug’19 Sep’19 Oct’19 Nov’19 Dec’19 Jan’20 Feb’20 in 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 4 5 6 7 2018 5 uncertainty on all fronts uncertainty on to pre back volatility implied Optionsretreated also USD/TL rate remained relatively stable thanks to ongoing disinflation trend disinflation ongoing to thanks relatively stable rate remained USD/TL Mar’18 in response to currency risingcurrency and toinflation responsein depreciation Mar’18 Moody’s downgrade Moody’s downgrade Apr’18 Mon. policy response Apr’18 Mon. policy response Fiscal stimulus package May’18 Fiscal stimulus package May’18 - S&P downgrade S&P downgrade cycle easing loaded Jun’18 Mon. policy response Jun’18 Mon. policy response Mon. policy response Mon. policy response Jul’18 General election Jul’18 General election Aug’18 US sanctions on Turkey Aug’18 US sanctions on Turkey Sep’18 BRSA-CBRT measures Sep’18 BRSA-CBRT measures Mon. policy response Mon. policy response Oct’18 Oct’18 New Economic Program New Economic Program Nov’18 Crisis with US ends Nov’18 Crisis with US ends Dec’18 Dec’18 Jan’19 Jan’19 Feb’19 Feb’19 . After maintaining the policy rate steady rate policy steady the maintaining After Mar’19 Mar’19 Local Elections Local Elections - January 2 January Apr’19 Apr’19 May’19 Ist. Elections Cancelled May’19 Ist. Elections Cancelled - stress levels, alleviating stress with 020 MPC meetings, meetings, MPC020 Jun’19 Jun’19 Rerun of Ist. Elections Rerun of Ist. Elections Jul’19 Fitch’s Downgrade Jul’19 Fitch’s Downgrade Aug’19 Mon. Policy Easing Aug’19 Mon. Policiy Easing Sep’19 Mon. Policy Easing Sep’19 Mon. Policy Easing Oct’19 Mon. Policy Easing Oct’19 Mon. Policy Easing Nov’19 Nov’19 Dec’19 Dec’19 6 Mon. Policy Easing Mon. Policy Easing Jan’20 Mon. Policy Easing Jan’20 Mon. Policy Easing Feb’20 Feb’20 QNB Finansbank and QNB Group at a Glance QNB Finansbank: 5th Largest Privately Owned Universal Bank(1) QNB Finansbank group structure QNB Finansbank market positioning % Owned by QNB Finansbank Bank only, 9M’19 Commercial Numbers of Total Customer Retail Installment 12M’19 Branches Assets Net Loans Deposits Loans(2) Loans(2) Brokerage, Co-operation Leasing and Information Consumer st Fund Mgmt. with Other 1 İşbank İşbank İşbank İşbank Garanti İşbank Factoring Technology Finance and Insurance Banks 99 100 100 33 100 Yapı 2nd Garanti Garanti Garanti Garanti İşbank Kredi 100 100 100 9 Yapı Yapı Yapı Yapı 100 3rd Akbank Kredi Kredi Kredi Kredi 49 Yapı 4th Akbank Akbank Akbank Akbank Garanti Kredi Financial highlights 5th Denizbank Denizbank QNB Finansbank BRSA bank only financials 12M’19 TL, bn Eop Total assets 181.7 6th Denizbank Denizbank Denizbank Denizbank Akbank Net loans 110.7 Customer deposits 100.2 7th TEB TEB TEB TEB TEB TEB Shareholder's equity 16.7 Branches (#) 525 Active customers (mn) 5.7 8th ING ING ING ING ING ING Bank only employees (#) 12,087 Note: All information in the presentation is based on BRSA bank only data unless stated otherwise (1) In terms of total assets, net loans, retail loans and customer deposits (2) Including overdraft and credit cards 8 Source: BRSA bank only data; BAT QNB Finansbank covers Turkey through a diverse distribution network and the market’s only “pure digital bank” Internet banking Mobile banking Mobile banking ATMs Internet banking 427k active 2.8 mn active internet banking mobile banking customers customers 1.25 mn active mobile banking Direct sales 525 branches customers 215k active 2,941 ATMs around internet banking Turkey and reaches customers ~7,718 ATM’s through new ATM sharing program 708 in-house Covering 71 out of Field service personnel 81 cities of Turkey POS Call center Call center Telesales 235 field service personnel 245k POS 294 inbound terminals agents 928 inbound 50 outbound agents agents 9 Source: BRSA Finturk One of Turkey’s top performers on the back of its flexible business model 2016 beyond: Sustained success 1987-2004: Fast growth behind 2005-2011: Retail banking boom 2012-2016: Business banking in Retail and SME, while beating leadership in Corporate & with market leading growth and growth with productivity and risk the market in Corporate & Commercial Banking success focus Commercial Banking Total Assets Market share Market share Market share