Incarceration and Sexual Risk: an Examination of How Incarceration Shapes the Context of HIV Risk
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Incarceration and Sexual Risk: An examination of how incarceration shapes the context of HIV risk by Andrea K. Knittel A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Health Behavior and Health Education) in The University of Michigan 2011 Doctoral Committee: Associate Professor Rachel Campbell Snow, Chair Associate Professor Jeffrey D. Morenoff Assistant Professor Derek Griffith Associate Research Scientist Rick L. Riolo To my parents ii Acknowledgements This dissertation would not exist were it not for the incredible network of family, friends, colleagues, and mentors who have been with me throughout this process. I must thank my dissertation committee for their dedication to my academic and personal growth, and in particular Rachel, my chair, for career guidance, mentorship, and support. In addition, I am grateful for the Medical Scientist Training Program, the Department of Health Behavior and Health Education, Rackham Graduate School, the Center for Social Epidemiology and Public Health, and the Point Foundation for funding my work, and their faculty and staff who worked tirelessly with me to ensure my success. The Center for the Study of Complex Systems faculty and staff have also provided incredible computational resources as well as moral support. I owe an immense debt of gratitude to Ruti, Allison, Becca, Ebony, Natalie, Jonetta, and Carmen for critical resources, reassurances, and revisions during the last four years. I am so lucky to not only be standing on the shoulders of giants, but to be bolstered on all sides by these incredible colleagues and friends. To my family, I thank you for putting up with the challenges this program has brought, and for believing in me through them all. Finally, to each Alicia, Ash, and Laura, I have drawn strength and inspiration from your friendship and love in my life, and could not have done this without you. Thank you. iii Table of Contents Dedication ..............................................................................................................................ii Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................iii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................v List of Tables .........................................................................................................................vi Abstract ..................................................................................................................................ix Chapter I. Introduction ....................................................................................................1 II. Incarceration and HIV: Examining the relationship between incarceration and sexual risk................................................................................................43 III. Development and validation of an agent-based model of sexual partnership......................................................................................................98 IV. Modeling the effects of incarceration on sexual behavior and sexual partnerships ....................................................................................................146 V. Conclusion .....................................................................................................178 iv List of Figures Figure 1.1. Full conceptual model linking high prevalence of male incarceration to community and individual level HIV risk. ............................................................................4 Figure 2.1. Reduced conceptual model describing the relationship between incarceration and sexual decision-making/sexual network structure ..........................................................48 Figure 3.1. Schematic of model implementation ...................................................................134 Figure 3.2. Differences in distribution of partners in the past 12 months .............................135 Figure 3.3. Differences in distribution of number of lifetime partners ..................................136 Figure 4.1. Base model results for partners in the last year ...................................................175 v List of Tables Table 2.1. Power calculations to detect differences in mean number of partners, and to test for equivalence in mean number of partners ...................................................................53 Table 2.2. Demographic descriptive statistics for the full survey population and analytical subsets ...................................................................................................................................80 Table 2.3. Criminal justice involvement descriptive statistics for the analytic subsets .........81 Table 2.4. Sexual experience descriptive statistics for the analytical subsets .......................82 Table 2.5. Estimated differences in means and proportions between incarcerated respondents and unincarcerated respondents .........................................................................82 Table 2.6. Bivariate relationships between sexual behaviors and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables ..................................................................................83 Table 2.7. Multivariate relationships between number of lifetime sexual partners and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables ......................................................85 Table 2.8. Multivariate relationships between number of sexual partners in the past 12 months and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables ..................................86 Table 2.9. Multivariate relationships between proportion with concurrent partners and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables ......................................................87 Table 2.10. Multivariate relationships between proportion reporting partners with concurrent partners and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables ...............88 Table 2.11. Relationships between sexual behavior measures and incarceration history controlling for propensity score .............................................................................................89 Table 2.12. Estimated effects of incarceration on sexual behavior measures using propensity score matching .....................................................................................................89 Table 2.13. Demographic descriptive statistics for the full survey population and analytical subsets at Wave II..................................................................................................90 Table 2.14. Criminal justice involvement/delinquency descriptive statistics for the analytic subsets at Wave II ....................................................................................................90 vi Table 2.15. Sexual behavior descriptive statistics for the analytic subsets at Wave II .........91 Table 2.16. Estimated differences in means between individuals who will later be incarcerated (by Wave III) and those who will not be incarcerated, measured at Wave II ...91 Table 2.17. Bivariate relationships between sexual behaviors and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables at Wave II ................................................................92 Table 2.18. Multivariate relationships between number of lifetime partners, future incarceration, and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables at Wave II ......93 Table 2.19. Multivariate relationships between proportion of respondents with concurrent partners, future incarceration, and demographic and criminal justice involvement variables at Wave II ...............................................................................................................94 Table 3.1. Key characteristics of existing models of partner selection ................................126 Table 3.2. Agent-level Characteristics ...................................................................................126 Table 3.3. Run-time Settable Model Parameters ...................................................................127 Table 3.4. Parameter effects on number of lifetime partners .................................................129 Table 3.5. Parameter effects on number of partners in the past 12 months ...........................129 Table 3.6. Parameter effects on rate of concurrency .............................................................129 Table 3.7. Parameter effects on quality correlation between partners ...................................129 Table 3.8. Final parameterization of the model and type of parameter sources ....................130 Table 3.9. Number of sexual partners over the past 12 months, the past 5 years, and since age 18 reported in the National Health and Social Life Survey (1992) compared with model output ..........................................................................................................................131 Table 3.10. Number of sexual partners over the past 12 months and over the lifetime reported in the National Survey of Family Growth (2002) compared to model output ........132 Table 3.11. Number of sexual partners over the past 12 months and over the lifetime reported in the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health ....................................132 Table 3.12. Rates of concurrency as reported