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Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview

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Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview BACKGROUND ON 2014 ELECTIONS The 2014 election has been difficult to predict due to some dead-heat races in the U.S. Senate, but it appears that Republicans will have an edge next Tuesday in many close races and are poised to take control of Congress. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win the majority in the Senate and control of both chambers of Congress. Republicans will continue to have a significant majority in the House of Representatives. The Outdoor Industry Association government affairs team has been closely monitoring dozens of races across the country. We work with donors to the OIA Political Action Committee (OIAPAC), who give their personal dollars, to support candidates who support the outdoor industry. OIA member dues are not donated to political candidates. UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election. Currently, Republicans control 233 seats and Democrats control 199 seats, with 3 vacancies. The 2014 election is unlikely to change the Republican “supermajority” in the House and may, in fact, result in a larger number of Republican controlled seats, as they are projected to add between five and seven seats to their majority on November 4. Some of the key races Outdoor Industry Association is watching are those where OIA Political Action Committee (OIAPAC), made contributions. Those include: Representative Jared Polis (D, CO-2) – OIAPAC contributed $5000 to Polis. He has consistently been a champion for the outdoor industry, strongly supporting the recreation and trade agendas and regularly meeting with industry executives. Polis is running against Republican George Leing. Real Clear Politics (RCP) rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect Polis to retain his seat. Representative Suzan DelBene (D, WA-1) – OIAPAC contributed $1000 to DelBene due to her strong support for the outdoor recreation economy. She is running against Republican Pedro Celis. RCP rates this race as “Likely Democrat.” We expect DelBene to retain her seat. Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview Representative Scott Peters (D, CA-52) – OIAPAC gave $1000 to Peters due to his support of the industry’s recreation agenda. An OIAPAC contribution could make a significant difference in one of the closest House races in the country. Peters is running against Republican Carl DeMaio. RCP rates this election as a “Toss Up” with the latest San Diego Union-Tribune poll showing DeMaio up by three points. Representative Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) – OIAPAC contributed $1000 to Reichert. He is running against Democrat Jason Ritchie. Reichert is a strong supporter of the outdoor industry and is the lead sponsor of the US OUTDOOR Act, OIA’s signature trade legislation in the House. He is also a supporter of full-funding of the Land and Water Conservation Fund. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Reichert to retain his seat. Representative Kurt Schrader (D, OR-5) – OIAPAC approved a $1000 contribution to Schrader, due in large part to his strong support for the outdoor industry’s policy agenda. He is running against Republican Tootie Smith. RCP rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect Schrader to retain his seat. Representative Earl Blumenauer (D, OR,-3) – OIAPAC gave $1000 to Blumenauer as he is a strong supporter of the industry’s policy agenda. He is running against Republican James Buchal. Blumenauer is the lead Democratic sponsor of the US OUTDOOR Act in the House and an LWCF supporter. RCP rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect Blumenauer to retain his seat. Representative Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) – OIAPAC contributed a $750 donation to Paulsen, a strong supporter of the industry’s trade agenda, who is running against Democrat Sharon Sund. Paulsen has also supported recreation issues like the National Park Service Centennial and is an avid outdoor enthusiast. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Paulsen to retain his seat. Representative Mike Simpson (R, ID-2) – OIAPAC gave $500 to Simpson who is running against Democrat Richard Stallings for the seat. Simpson is the sponsor of the Wildfire Disaster Funding Act (WDFA) and works closely with the National Parks Coalition and is a LWCF supporter and proponent of a local wilderness proposal. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Simpson to retain his seat. 2 Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview OIA is also watching several other House races that may impact the outdoor industry, our 2015 policy agenda and OIA’s outreach and advocacy strategies. Those races include: Representative Rob Bishop (R, UT-1) – Bishop is expected to win his race against Donna McAleer, a strong proponent of the outdoor industry in Utah and the unsuccessful candidate for the same seat in 2012. With his expected victory next week, Bishop is likely to become Chairman of the House Resources Committee, a key committee for the outdoor industry’s public land and water legislation. He recently introduced the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Modernization Act (FLREA), a bill that authorizes the land management agencies to put park user fees towards recreation enhancements and gives guides and outfitters the authority they need to run trips on public lands. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Bishop to retain his seat. Representative Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) – Ryan is the former Republican nominee for vice president and is expected to easily hold his Congressional seat this November. Currently Ryan is the Chairman of the House Budget Committee, responsible for cutting recreation and land management budgets and blocking important legislation like WDFA. Ryan, however, will be key to the outdoor industry’s trade agenda as the likely Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee in the next Congress. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Ryan to retain his seat. Representative Greg Walden (R-OR, 2) – Walden has been a supporter of the outdoor industry and is a rising star in the Republican Party. He will face Democrat Aelea Christofferson in November. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Walden to retain his seat. Open Seat (UT- 4) – Republican Mia Love is expected to win the seat vacated by longtime industry supporter Democrat Jim Matheson. Love narrowly lost to Matheson in 2012, and she leads Democrat Doug Owens 49 percent to 40 percent. Love will be the first African American, Republican woman to serve in the House of Representatives. OIAPAC hosted candidate forums for Love and Owens at ORSM 2014 where both pledged to work closely with the outdoor industry, but we did not contribute to either campaign. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect Love to win this race. 3 Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview UNITED STATES SENATE There are currently 55 Democratic Senators (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 45 Republican Senators. This year there are 36 Senate seats up for election on November 4. The election will determine whether Republicans take control of the Senate, and therefore control Congress, or if Democrats can hold on to their slim majority. Fifteen seats are considered “Safe Republican” or “Likely Republican” by Real Clear Politics, with Louisiana now rated as “Lean Republican.” There are 11 seats considered “Safe Democrat” or “Likely Democrat.” No states are currently rated as “Lean Democrat.” Nine seats considered “toss-ups” could go either to the Democrat, the Republican, or in Kansas, an Independent. Republicans must win a net of six seats to assume control of the Senate. The key toss-up races in the Senate to watch are Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and New Hampshire. Some elections, like Iowa, may be decided before November 4 since early voting has already started and 20 percent of the votes have already been cast in the state. However, candidates in elections that will most likely result in run-offs like Louisiana and Georgia may not be announced for one to two months after the election. OIAPAC made several investments in key Senate races and is closely monitoring the outcome. Those races include: Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) – A longtime industry friend, Udall received $5000 from OIAPAC this year, and OIA has hosted two fundraising events for the Senator. Udall is an outdoor enthusiast and a co-sponsor of bills to fully fund LWCF and WDFA. He has also co-sponsored land protection bills in Colorado including Brown’s Canyon and Hermosa Creek Watershed. Udall is in one of the closest races in the country against Representative Cory Gardner. The outcome could determine which party controls the Senate and although this race is a “toss- up,” it is trending towards a Gardner win. RCP shows Gardner leading by an average of three points over Udall, but this race could still swing either way. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) – OIAPAC gave two contributions to Shaheen totaling $4500. This longtime supporter of the outdoor industry is leading in most polls against the former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, Scott Brown, but faces a closer race than expected. Since 2006, no state has kicked out more federal incumbents than New Hampshire. Shaheen has consistently been a champion of LWCF as well as the U.S. OUTDOOR Act, hosting industry roundtables to discuss its importance. She regularly visits with outdoor industry executives from New Hampshire. This race is a “Toss Up” but RCP shows Shaheen leading by an average of 2.2 points. 4 Outdoor Industry Association 2014 Election Preview Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) – OIAPAC invested $2500 in Hagan’s campaign against Republican Thom Tillis in another extremely close race, where OIAPAC dollars may make a significant difference in the outcome.
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