Seeing What You Want to See: Priors for One's Own Actions Represent Exaggerated Expectations of Success
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Power and Illusory Control
Research Paper No. 2009 Illusory Control: A Generative Force Behind Power’s Far-Reaching Effects Nathanael J. Fast Deborah H. Gruenfeld Niro Sivanathan Adam D. Galinsky December 2008 R ESEARCH P APER S ERIES Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1314952 Running Head: POWER AND ILLUSORY CONTROL Illusory Control: A Generative Force Behind Power’s Far-Reaching Effects Nathanael J. Fast and Deborah H Gruenfeld Stanford University Niro Sivanathan London Business School Adam D. Galinsky Northwestern University *In press at Psychological Science Please address correspondence concerning this article to Nathanael J. Fast, Department of Organizational Behavior, Stanford University, 518 Memorial Way, Stanford, CA 94305; email: [email protected]. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1314952 Power and Illusory Control 2 Abstract Three experiments demonstrated that the experience of power leads to an illusion of personal control. Regardless of whether power was experientially primed (Experiments 1 and 3) or manipulated through manager-subordinate roles (Experiment 2), it led to perceived control over outcomes that were beyond the reach of the powerholder. Furthermore, this illusory control mediated the influence of power on several self-enhancement and approach-related effects found in the power literature, including optimism (Experiment 2), self-esteem (Experiment 3), and action-orientation (Experiment 3), demonstrating its theoretical importance as a generative cause and driving force behind many of power’s far-reaching effects. A fourth experiment ruled out an alternative explanation: that positive mood, rather than illusory control, is at the root of power’s effects. The discussion considers implications for existing and future research on the psychology of power, perceived control, and positive illusions. -
Dunning–Kruger Effect - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia
Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect Dunning–Kruger effect From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1] Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others".[2] Contents 1 Proposal 2 Supporting studies 3 Awards 4 Historical references 5 See also 6 References Proposal The phenomenon was first tested in a series of experiments published in 1999 by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of the Department of Psychology, Cornell University.[2][3] They noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis. Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will: 1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill; 2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others; 3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; 4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they are exposed to training for that skill. Dunning has since drawn an analogy ("the anosognosia of everyday life")[1][4] with a condition in which a person who suffers a physical disability because of brain injury seems unaware of or denies the existence of the disability, even for dramatic impairments such as blindness or paralysis. -
Infographic I.10
The Digital Health Revolution: Leaving No One Behind The global AI in healthcare market is growing fast, with an expected increase from $4.9 billion in 2020 to $45.2 billion by 2026. There are new solutions introduced every day that address all areas: from clinical care and diagnosis, to remote patient monitoring to EHR support, and beyond. But, AI is still relatively new to the industry, and it can be difficult to determine which solutions can actually make a difference in care delivery and business operations. 59 Jan 2021 % of Americans believe returning Jan-June 2019 to pre-coronavirus life poses a risk to health and well being. 11 41 % % ...expect it will take at least 6 The pandemic has greatly increased the 65 months before things get number of US adults reporting depression % back to normal (updated April and/or anxiety.5 2021).4 Up to of consumers now interested in telehealth going forward. $250B 76 57% of providers view telehealth more of current US healthcare spend % favorably than they did before COVID-19.7 could potentially be virtualized.6 The dramatic increase in of Medicare primary care visits the conducted through 90% $3.5T telehealth has shown longevity, with rates in annual U.S. health expenditures are for people with chronic and mental health conditions. since April 2020 0.1 43.5 leveling off % % Most of these can be prevented by simple around 30%.8 lifestyle changes and regular health screenings9 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020 OCCAM’S RAZOR • CONJUNCTION FALLACY • DELMORE EFFECT • LAW OF TRIVIALITY • COGNITIVE FLUENCY • BELIEF BIAS • INFORMATION BIAS Digital health ecosystems are transforming• AMBIGUITY BIAS • STATUS medicineQUO BIAS • SOCIAL COMPARISONfrom BIASa rea• DECOYctive EFFECT • REACTANCEdiscipline, • REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY • SYSTEM JUSTIFICATION • BACKFIRE EFFECT • ENDOWMENT EFFECT • PROCESSING DIFFICULTY EFFECT • PSEUDOCERTAINTY EFFECT • DISPOSITION becoming precise, preventive,EFFECT • ZERO-RISK personalized, BIAS • UNIT BIAS • IKEA EFFECT and • LOSS AVERSION participatory. -
Social Comparisons of Subjective Well-Being
Is the grass always greener on the other side? Social comparisons of subjective well-being THOMAS GOETZ1, CHRISTOPH EHRET2, SIMONEJULLIEN1, & NATHAN C. HALL3 I University 0/ Munich, Germany, 2University 0/ Regensburg, Germany, and 3University o/California, Irvine, USA Abstract This study investigates subjective well being (SWB) among residents of Munich (n 380) and Venice (n 545) with respect to their individual SWB and their judgments of SWB for residents of their own city and those living in the other city. Our results indicate that egocentrism rather than striving for self enhancement guided people's judgments of SWB. For people with low individual SWB, a below average effect was found, whereas for people with high individual SWB, a better than average effect emerged. Also in line with the egocentrism approach, judgments of individual SWB were positively related to the judgments of SWB for residents of their own city, but unrelated to SWB of those living in the other city. Implications for future research are discussed. Keywords: Subjective well being, satisfaction with life, social compan'sons Introduction abilities of other groups (outgroups; Abrams & Hogg, 1988). This phenomenon is called the ingroup Many studies have shown that most people believe bias (Mullen, Brown, & Smith, 1992) and is a central they are better than average (see Alicke & Govorun, component of Social Identity Theory developed 2005; Armor & Taylor, 1998; Krueger, 1998; Taylor by Tajfel and Turner (1979, 1986; see Rubin & Brown, 1988, 1994, for reviews). This effect has & Hewstone, 1998, for a review on research on the been found in various domains: with respect to ingroup bias). -
Dunning–Kruger Effect – Why Once a Fool, Always a Fool
Dunning–Kruger Effect – Why Once a Fool, Always a Fool David Lacko Psychologický ústav FFMU, Brno [email protected] The majority of people believe that they are better-than-average. In psychology, this phenomenon is called the illusory superiority. A specific form of illusory superiority is Dunning–Kruger’s effect which states that people overestimate their abilities based on their real abilities. The rule is that the less competent a person is, the more they overestimate themselves. And, on the other hand, able people have a tendency to underestimate themselves slightly. A considerable part of this phenomenon is also the fact that the less able people do not change their attitudes even after being confronted with the reality. The majority of people believe that they are better-than-average. Some sources (Boyd, 2014) mention that as much as 93 % of population consider themselves better than average, even though it is logical, that it is statistically impossible.In psychology, this phenomenon is called theillusory superiority, or theAbove Average Effect / Better than Average Effect. Out of interest, I will give you a few examples.The majority of people think that they are more intelligent and more attractive than the majority of others (Whittlestone, 2012), and on the scale from 1 to 10, where 10 is the highest better-than-average, they ascribe themselves number 7 (Ghose, 2013). 88 % of people think that they drive better-than-average (Svenson, 1981); even the majority of elderly people rank themselves among better-than-average drivers (Marottoli and Richardson, 1998). If you suppose that this is only the case in more stupid people, you are wrong.94% of professors assume that they are better-than-average in comparison to their colleagues (Cross, 1977). -
Illusion and Well-Being: a Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health
Psyehologlcal Bulletin Copyright 1988 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 1988, Vol. 103, No. 2, 193-210 0033-2909/88/$00.75 Illusion and Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health Shelley E. Taylor Jonathon D. Brown University of California, Los Angeles Southern Methodist University Many prominenttheorists have argued that accurate perceptions of the self, the world, and the future are essential for mental health. Yet considerable research evidence suggests that overly positive self- evaluations, exaggerated perceptions of control or mastery, and unrealistic optimism are characteris- tic of normal human thought. Moreover, these illusions appear to promote other criteria of mental health, including the ability to care about others, the ability to be happy or contented, and the ability to engage in productive and creative work. These strategies may succeed, in large part, because both the social world and cognitive-processingmechanisms impose filters on incoming information that distort it in a positive direction; negativeinformation may be isolated and represented in as unthreat- ening a manner as possible. These positive illusions may be especially useful when an individual receives negative feedback or is otherwise threatened and may be especially adaptive under these circumstances. Decades of psychological wisdom have established contact dox: How can positive misperceptions of one's self and the envi- with reality as a hallmark of mental health. In this view, the ronment be adaptive when accurate information processing wcU-adjusted person is thought to engage in accurate reality seems to be essential for learning and successful functioning in testing,whereas the individual whose vision is clouded by illu- the world? Our primary goal is to weave a theoretical context sion is regarded as vulnerable to, ifnot already a victim of, men- for thinking about mental health. -
John Collins, President, Forensic Foundations Group
On Bias in Forensic Science National Commission on Forensic Science – May 12, 2014 56-year-old Vatsala Thakkar was a doctor in India but took a job as a convenience store cashier to help pay family expenses. She was stabbed to death outside her store trying to thwart a theft in November 2008. Bloody Footwear Impression Bloody Tire Impression What was the threat? 1. We failed to ask ourselves if this was a footwear impression. 2. The appearance of the impression combined with the investigator’s interpretation created prejudice. The accuracy of our analysis became threatened by our prejudice. Types of Cognitive Bias Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases | Accessed on April 14, 2014 Anchoring or focalism Hindsight bias Pseudocertainty effect Illusory superiority Levels-of-processing effect Attentional bias Hostile media effect Reactance Ingroup bias List-length effect Availability heuristic Hot-hand fallacy Reactive devaluation Just-world phenomenon Misinformation effect Availability cascade Hyperbolic discounting Recency illusion Moral luck Modality effect Backfire effect Identifiable victim effect Restraint bias Naive cynicism Mood-congruent memory bias Bandwagon effect Illusion of control Rhyme as reason effect Naïve realism Next-in-line effect Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect Illusion of validity Risk compensation / Peltzman effect Outgroup homogeneity bias Part-list cueing effect Belief bias Illusory correlation Selective perception Projection bias Peak-end rule Bias blind spot Impact bias Semmelweis -
Illusory Control: a Generative Force Behind Power's Far-Reaching Effects
PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Article Illusory Control A Generative Force Behind Power’s Far-Reaching Effects Nathanael J. Fast,1 Deborah H Gruenfeld,1 Niro Sivanathan,2 and Adam D. Galinsky3 1Stanford University, 2London Business School, and 3Northwestern University ABSTRACT—Three experiments demonstrated that the ex- A diverse set of findings has suggested that feelings of control perience of power leads to an illusion of personal control. often stem from the possession of power, although this rela- Regardless of whether power was experientially primed tionship has not been assessed directly. People with high so- (Experiments 1 and 3) or manipulated through roles cioeconomic status (Lachman & Weaver, 1998), members of (manager vs. subordinate; Experiment 2), it led to per- dominant groups (Guinote, Brown, & Fiske, 2006), and mem- ceived control over outcomes that were beyond the reach of bers of cultures that endorse the values of power and individual the power holder. Furthermore, this illusory control me- agency (Heine, Lehman, Markus, & Kitayama, 1999; Markus & diated the influence of power on several self-enhancement Kitayama, 1991) are all more likely than others to believe they and approach-related outcomes reported in the power can control the future. These same people—the wealthy, the literature, including optimism (Experiment 2), self-esteem educated, the numerical majority, the individualistic—also tend (Experiment 3), and action orientation (Experiment 3). to display more optimism, self-esteem, and action in pursuit of These results demonstrate the theoretical importance of their goals (e.g., Heine et al., 1999; Mirowsky & Ross, 2000; perceived control as a generative cause of and driving Twenge & Campbell, 2002). -
Narcissists¬タル Negative Perception of Their Counterpart¬タルs
Personality and Individual Differences 74 (2015) 196–201 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Personality and Individual Differences journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/paid Narcissists’ negative perception of their counterpart’s competence and benevolence and their own reduced trust in a negotiation context ⇑ Dejun Tony Kong Jepson School of Leadership Studies and Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173, USA article info abstract Article history: Despite its important role in interpersonal interactions, narcissism has rarely been examined in the con- Received 10 March 2014 text of negotiations in which individuals cooperate and compete with their counterpart. As negotiations Received in revised form 10 October 2014 occur frequently in daily life, empirical findings of the role of narcissism in negotiation settings can Accepted 11 October 2014 enhance the understanding of the functions of narcissism in common situations in which self- and Available online 11 November 2014 other-interests are in conflict. By analyzing 35 negotiation dyads’ within-dyad differences using multi- level analysis, I found that negotiators’ narcissism was negatively related to their perception of their Keywords: counterpart’s competence but was not significantly related to their individual economic gain (objective Narcissism negotiation performance), suggesting narcissists’ inflated agentic self or deflated perception of their Trust Competence counterpart’s competence. Additionally, narcissism was negatively related to trust, -
Narcissism, Self-Esteem, and the Positivity of Self-Views: Two Portraits of Self-Love
PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN Campbell et al. / NARCISSISM AND SELF-ESTEEM Narcissism, Self-Esteem, and the Positivity of Self-Views: Two Portraits of Self-Love W. Keith Campbell University of Georgia Eric A. Rudich University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Constantine Sedikides University of Southampton The authors hypothesized that both narcissism and high self- considered to be a curse, whereas high self-esteem is esteem are associated with positive self-views but each is associ- regarded as a boon. ated with positivity in different domains of the self. Narcissists Our objective in the present research is to explore the perceive themselves as better than average on traits reflecting an bases of the positive self-views that narcissists and high- agentic orientation (e.g., intellectual skills, extraversion) but self-esteem (HSE) individuals have. In particular, we not on those reflecting a communal orientation (e.g., agreeable- wish to uncover those aspects of the self in which narcis- ness, morality). In contrast, high-self-esteem individuals per- sists and HSE individuals hold themselves in the highest ceive themselves as better than average both on agentic and com- (and lowest) regard. To presage our hypotheses: We pre- munal traits. Three studies confirmed the hypothesis. In Study dict that even though both narcissists and HSE individu- 1, narcissists rated themselves as extraverted and open to experi- als have positive self-views, these groups hold self-views ence but not as more agreeable or emotionally stable. High-self- that are distinct in theoretically meaningful ways. Spe- esteem individuals rated themselves highly on all of these traits cifically, narcissists’ self-conceptions reflect agentic (but except openness. -
A Review of Optimism Bias, Planning Fallacy, Sunk Cost Bias and Groupthink in Project Delivery and Organisational Decision Making
Behavioural Insights Team A review of optimism bias, planning fallacy, sunk cost bias and groupthink in project delivery and organisational decision making Accompanying An Exploration of Behavioural Biases in Project Delivery at the Department for Transport Client: Department for Transport Date: July 2017 1 © Behavioural Insights Ltd Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 How we make decisions and judgements ........................................................................................ 3 Optimism bias and the planning fallacy .............................................................................................. 5 How prevalent is the planning fallacy? ............................................................................................ 5 Causes of optimism bias and the planning fallacy ........................................................................... 6 Self-serving biases..................................................................................................................... 6 Illusion of control ....................................................................................................................... 7 Confirmation bias ...................................................................................................................... 8 Perception of risk ...................................................................................................................... -
The Character of Self-Enhancers 195 the Greatest Attention
CHAPTER 9 Implications for Organizations Richard W. Robins Delroy L. Paulhus J.S. is an employee at a large accounting firm. He was hired on the basis of a college degree and an impressive interview. Relative to initial expectations, however, J.S. has turned out to be a controversial employee. Supervisor reports have been mixed, and J.S. has been the source of complaints from some, although not all, of his coworkers. The promotion committee trying to evaluate J.S. has access to multiple sources of information from a 360-degree perfor- mance appraisal, but the inconsistent evaluations are puzzling to committee members. All concerned agree that his cardinal trait is an exceptionally high level of self-confidence. ositive thinking has been touted as the way to success at least as far back as Norman Vincent Peale (1952). With his series of best-selling books, Peale Pconvinced millions of the benefits of a positive attitude toward oneself. Bookstores-their business sections in particular-continue to offer large num- bers of similar books encouraging people to promote their virtues and ignore their self-doubts. The core message of these books-to err on the positive side in evaluating oneself-has become a canon of contemporary American life. Promised benefits range from financial triumphs to personal bliss to successful personal relationships. But what does the empirical literature have to say about self-enhancement? How widespread are such tendencies? Is self-enhancement as uniformly bene- ficial as the authors of self-help books would have people believe? Of particular concern in this chapter is the question of whether organizations should be hiring and promoting self-enhancing individuals such as J.S.