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Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Management Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat

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Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Management Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat CMPA Technical Report Series 46 Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to inform Management Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat August 2017 GEER Foundation Indo-German Biodiversity Programme Conservation and Sustainable Management of Coastal and Marine Protected Areas CMPA Technical Report Series No. 46 Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to inform Man- agement Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat Authors Dr. YRS Rao, National Institute of Hydrology Dr. Suhas Khobragade, National Institute of Hydrology Dr. Sandeep Sahany, Assistant Professor, IIT Delhi & Director, Brownbag Corporate & Social Sustainability Private Limited Dr. Saroj Mishra, Assistant Professor, IIT Delhi & Director, Brownbag Corporate & Social Sustainability Private Limited Mr. Manpreet Singh, KPMG Ms. Tanima Singh, KPMG Mr. Sandip Keswani, KPMG Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Indo-German Biodiversity Programme (IGBP), GIZ-India, A-2/18, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi - 110029, India E-Mail: [email protected] Web: www.giz.de August 2017 Responsible Director, Indo-German Biodiversity Programme Photo Credit Dr. Neeraj Khera Layout Aspire Design, Delhi Disclaimer The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India, of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) or the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. The designation of geographical entities and presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression or opinion whatsoever on the part of MoEFCC, BMUB or GIZ concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Reference herein to any specific organisation, consulting firm, service provider or process followed does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation or favouring by MoEFCC, BMUB or GIZ. Citation YRS Rao, Suhas Khobragade, Sandeep Sahany, Saroj Mishra, Manpreet Singh, Tanima Singh, Sandip Keswani (2017). Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to inform Management Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat. CMPA Technical Series No. 46. Indo German Biodiversity Programme, GIZ India, New Delhi. pp 80. Hydrology Study and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to inform Management Planning of Khijadiya Wildlife Sanctuary in Gujarat Authors Dr. YRS Rao, National Institute of Hydrology Dr. Suhas Khobragade, National Institute of Hydrology Dr. Sandeep Sahany, Assistant Professor, IIT Delhi & Director, Brownbag Corporate & Social Sustainability Private Limited Dr. Saroj Mishra, Assistant Professor, IIT Delhi & Director, Brownbag Corporate & Social Sustainability Private Limited Mr. Manpreet Singh, KPMG Ms. Tanima Singh, KPMG Mr. Sandip Keswani, KPMG August 2017 CMPA Technical Report Series 46 Indo-German Biodiversity Programme Conservation and Sustainable Management of Coastal and Marine Protected Areas Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1. BACKGROUND 8 1.1 Objective and scope 9 1.2 Overview of Khijadiya Bird Sanctuary 10 2. HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT 11 2.1 Hydrological characterisation of the wetland 11 2.2 Climate 12 2.3 Assessment of water quality profiles 15 2.4 Run-off modelling 16 2.5 Water balance of Khijadiya 17 2.6 Recommendations for improving water retention in the wetland 26 3. CLIMATE RISKS AND VULNERABILITY 28 3.1 Key climate change issues and influencing factors 28 3.2 Approach to assessing climate vulnerability 29 3.3 Climate change assessment, projections and vulnerability of Khijadiya Bird Sanctuary 31 3.3.1 Temperature characteristics over the Khijadiya wetland in the current climate 32 3.3.2 Temperature characteristics over the Khijadiya wetland under global warming 34 3.3.3 Rainfall characteristics over the Khijadiya wetland in the current climate 35 3.3.4 Rainfall characteristics over the Khijadiya wetland under global warming 36 3.3.5 Sea level rise projections for the coastlines neigbouring Khijadiya Bird Sanctuary 37 3.4 Impacts of climate change on hydrology of Khijadiya Bird Sanctuary 39 3.5 Impacts of climate change on biodiversity of the wetland 46 3.6 Recommendations for improving adaptive capacity of Khijadiya Bird Sanctuary 51 4. CARBON SEQUESTRATION ASSESSMENT 56 4.1 Carbon fluxes in Khijadiya 57 4.1.1 Carbon flux influencers in Khijadiya 58 4.2 Assessing carbon sequestration potential of Khijadiya 61 4.3 Potential to increase carbon sequestration of Khijadiya 63 ANNEXURE 1: CARBON SEQUESTRATION 65 ANNEXURE 2: FIELD VISITS 67 REFERENCES 70 List of tables Table 1 Physical, Chemical and Trace Metal analysis of water samples collected from site in March 2017 ......................................................................................................................... 16 Table 2 Measured monthly rainfall in mm for the water year 2014–15 ................................. 18 Table 3 Various combinations of wetland storage capacity ................................................. 20 Table 4 Computed wetland inflows for the water year 2014–15 .......................................... 21 Table 5 Average daily evaporation from wetland (2011–16) ................................................ 22 Table 6 Average evaporation rate for the year 2014–15 ...................................................... 23 Table 7 Evapaoration across the year ................................................................................. 24 Table 8 Projected temperature and rainfall changes in Khijadiya wetland, 2016–36 ........... 37 Table 9 Projected temperature and rainfall changes in Khijadiya catchment, 2016–36 ....... 37 Table 10 Historical SLR trends over Mumbai, Kochi, Visakhapatnam and Diamond Harbour ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Table 11 Sea level rise projections near Khijadiya wetland, 2020–35 ................................. 39 Table 12 Sea level rise and estimated losses in wetland cover in Gujarat ........................... 39 Table 13 Expected evaporation characteristics of different projected years ........................ 44 Table 14 Month-wise expected average change in evaporation for different projected years ........................................................................................................................................... 44 Table 15 Expected average evaporation for the Khijadiya wetland for the period 2016–35 . 45 Table 16 Sub-habitat driven carbon flux in Khijadiya (Source: Nagar, 2016 and KPMG analysis).............................................................................................................................. 60 Table 17 Carbon sequestration potential for mangrove sub-habitat in Khijadiya.................. 65 Table 18 Carbon sequestration potential for land vegetation sub-habitat in Khijadiya ......... 66 List of figures Figure 1 Location of Khijadiyawetland, its effective and total catchment area ..................... 11 Figure 2 Sub-watershed delineation and location of Full Climatic Station (FCS) ................. 12 Figure 3 Observed average rainfall and pan evaporation (2011–16) nearby study area ...... 13 Figure 4 Map of Khijadiya wetland and bird sanctuary (Source: Zoological Survey of India, 2013) .................................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 5 Synoptic view of the satellite image (IRS LISS III) of Khijadiya wetland catchment area, 23-02-2012 ................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 6 Location of water samples collected within the wetland in the month of March 2017 ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 7 Relation between annual rainfallrun-off from Jamnagar district (1991–2010) ........ 17 Figure 8 Seasonal wetland and water balance components ................................................ 19 Figure 9 Cross-section of a hypothetical wetland ................................................................ 19 Figure 10 Computed daily wetland evaporation rate ........................................................... 22 Figure 11 Wetland water spread area and capacity at different depths of the wetland ........ 24 Figure 12 Examples of temporary silt traps .................................................................... 27 Figure 14 Potential impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands .................................... 29 Figure 15 Approach to climate risk and vulnerablity assessment ........................................ 30 Figure 16 Atmospheric CO2-equivalent concentrations (ppmv) of all forcing agents in RCP Scenarios (IPCC AR5) ........................................................................................................ 31 Figure 17 Climatological mean 2m air temperature (degree C) over the Khijadiya wetland region (marked by a star) from ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1979–2016 for individual months ...............................................................................................................
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