MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

Many households in southern and central are now, or are about to become, food insecure. In the south, drought conditions over the past several months have caused crop failure in inland Gaza and Inhambane and parts of provinces. The poorest households are quickly depleting their reserves from the 2005/06 harvest, and will soon be forced to reduce consumption, rely on market purchases earlier than normal and employ negative coping strategies such as selling productive assets. Urgent provision of short‐cycle variety seeds is needed for the second season in March/April. If the upcoming second season is poor as well, or if households do not receive the needed inputs, many households may be forced to rely on negative coping strategies throughout much of 2007.

Cyclone Favio, a category 4 cyclone, hit Mozambique in Vilankulos District in on February 22, then moved northwest through northern Inhambane, southern Sofala and Manica provinces. The cyclone has caused at least ten deaths and destroyed homes and infrastructure, including tourist facilities in Vilankulos. Most households affected by the cyclone lost food reserves, crops and fruit trees, and are likely to face acute food shortages in the coming weeks. Food, water and shelter are urgently needed. Despite the damage, Cyclone Favio brought welcome rainfall to many areas that had experienced drought conditions earlier in the season. Second‐season planting is possible, but seeds are urgently needed, as many households are spending their already meager resources to repair homes or meet their food needs.

In central Mozambique, households affected by floods along the Zambezi are experiencing temporary food insecurity. 163,000 people have already been displaced, and 285,000 people are at risk of being affected by the flooding. Relief operations are underway, but additional funding and response capacity are needed, particularly in water supply and sanitation assistance.

Food prices are currently stable and below the five‐year average. However, as food reserves from the 2005/06 harvest are depleted in areas where food access is problematic due to crop failure or restricted market access, price spikes are possible, which would further limit household food access.

Seasonal Timeline

FEWS NET Mozambique FEWS NET Washington Av. das FPLM 2698, Maputo 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Tel: 258.21.461872 Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

Cyclone Favio hits Mozambique

Cyclone Favio made landfall in Vilankulos District in northern Inhambane Province on February 22, 2007. It followed a northwesterly course, affecting northeast Inhambane, southern Sofala and central Manica provinces before crossing into Zimbabwe as a tropical depression (Figure 1). At landfall, Favio was a category 4 tropical cyclone, similar to Cyclone Japhet in 2003 and Eline in 2000, which impacted many of the same areas and caused widespread destruction and flooding.

Favio caused greater levels of destruction than the previous Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Favio trajectory and severely/moderately affected districts cyclones, as the strongest winds passed over the town of Vilankulos and the storm covered more districts due to its longitudinal orientation. Vilankulos felt the maximum impact of the cyclone, which knocked down buildings, uprooted trees and killed people. The cyclone weakened as it passed over land, becoming a tropical depression over Inhassoro, Govuro, Machanga, Buzi and Chibabava districts. Other districts, including Mabote, Machaze, Mossurize Sussundenga, Dondo, Nhamatanda, Gondola, Chimoio and Manica, were also affected by heavy rains and winds of approximately 60 km/h.

Multi‐sectoral assessment missions are underway to develop a complete understanding of damage caused by the cyclone. Preliminary findings include:

• Human deaths and injuries: So far, at least ten people have died, due mainly to electrocution and the collapse of buildings and trees. Numerous injuries from flying debris have also occurred.

• Number of affected people: In Inhambane province, an estimated 133,670 people have had their houses, crops or means of livelihood destroyed in 4 districts: Vilankulos (73,000), Inhassoro (43,170), Govuro (7,500) and Massinga (10,000). In , 2,370 families in Gondola and 890 families in Sussundenga have been affected. The number of affected people in is not yet available. Source: FEWS NET

• Housing: Most houses made of mud or reed affected by Favio have been destroyed, including up to 80 percent of such houses in Vilankulos and 60 percent in Govuro, displacing several thousand people. Some concrete structures have been severely damaged, with sea‐facing walls blown down, and the roofs of most brick and concrete structures blew off. In Bazaruto, an island next to Vilankulos, all mud or reed homes were significantly damaged, as were many lodges. Damage to housing and other infrastructure also occurred in Chimoio, Gondola, Sussundenga, Manica, Machanga, Buzi, Dondo and Chibabava.

• Public facilities: The roofs of public buildings such as schools, hospitals and government institutions were blown off. Many commercial facilities were totally or partially destroyed, and many are without roofs, exposing the goods and merchandise to rain. In Vilankulos alone 69 schools were totally or partially destroyed, including 107 classrooms, 12 gymnasiums, and 40 residences for teachers. Food warehouses were also destroyed; 50 tons of maize was exposed to rains in after a WFP warehouse was blown away by strong winds. In Vilankulos, the new municipal market collapsed, and the district prison was destroyed and all prisoners escaped.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

• Other facilities: Vilankulos’ two petrol stations were damaged and are not operational. The tourist facilities of Vilankulos – a popular tourist destination – were destroyed, and the electricity grid and water distribution system were severely damaged.

• Communication and access roads: Cell phone, radio and TV antennas were totally or partially damaged, affecting communication. Mobile phone batteries have run out, further restricting communication. Access roads were blocked by fallen trees and pylons, but clearing efforts began soon after the cyclone ended. Transport is possible, but difficult.

Cyclone Favio has also affected local food security, and immediate support is necessary. Households in the areas affected by the cyclone are likely to face acute food shortages within the next two weeks from the destruction of food crops and stocks and temporary market malfunction. Most households lost assets including food reserves, crops that were near maturation and fruit trees that normally contribute to dietary diversity and income. In the short term, households are attempting to salvage food from the destroyed plants, but this temporary food source will run out soon and households will rely on external help. According to the report recently released by the multi‐agency assessment mission, there is an immediate need to establish a food assistance program for at least four months until the next harvest is possible. Urgent assistance is also needed in the provision of water and shelter. A more detailed assessment is needed to determine more specific needs and the recovery efforts required for different livelihood groups.

There is also an urgent need for the distribution of seeds. Despite the huge damage caused to crops and infrastructure, the cyclone brought relief in terms of water supply and improved soil moisture in many areas that had received minimal rainfall for the main part of the previous rainy season. A second cropping season is now possible. However, in many places households are devoting their resources to pay for housing repair or purchase food, and may not have enough resources to replant without assistance. There is an immediate need for seed provision, including maize, beans and vegetable seeds, to support the second‐season planting.

Priority areas of support for recovery from the cyclone damage are: • Provision of shelter and food to the affected population • Immediate repair of hospitals, water and energy systems and the supply of power generators • Provision of construction materials, including logistical support for damage control and reconstruction • Seed supply for second‐season planting • Further assessment to ascertain the total extent of damage

Buzi basin at alarming level, Zambezi remains stationary Figure 2. Rainfall estimate, Feb 20 to 26, 2007, in mm

Following Favio, heavy rain fell in parts of Sofala, Manica, Gaza and Inhambane provinces (Figure 2), causing flooding along the Buzi River basin, potentially increasing flooding along the Zambezi River and leading to displacement. Despite the increase in short‐term food insecurity, a good flood‐recession harvest is possible in mid‐2007, but affected households require seeds and tools to plant.

Heavy rains occurred in central provinces of Sofala and Manica, especially in the Buzi basin. According to the National Directorate of Water (DNA), from February 22 to 24 a total of 489.0 and 444.9 millimeters of rainfall were recorded respectively at the Lucite and Goonda hydrometric stations in the Buzi basin. This volume, accumulated in a period of 48 hours, is equivalent to 40 percent of total annual rainfall in these areas (Figure 3). The massive rainfall is causing flooding along the lowland areas of the basin, especially in Sussundenga, Chibabava and Buzi districts. Around 700 people have been evacuated to temporary safe places from their residences in the Source: NOAA areas at risk.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

Water levels along the Zambezi River basin have Figure 3. River level (m) at Goonda and Lucite along the Buzi remained stable and even declined in some areas, River, February 2007 although the risk of flooding persists as long as heavy rains continue. According to the National Institute for 10.00 E456-Goonda Disaster Management (INGC), almost 163,000 people 9.00 E- Luc ite have been displaced throughout central Mozambique, 8.00 and the population at risk from flooding is estimated at 7.00 Alert Level 285,000. Two thirds of the evacuees living in 6.00 accommodation and resettlement centers are children. 5.00 4.00 Relief operations are underway, and coordination 3.00 between the government and non‐governmental 2.00 organizations (NGOs) has been very good, but 1.00 additional funding and capacity is still needed for 0.00 response efforts in the Zambezi and Buzi basins. This 135791113151719212325 includes water, sanitation, mosquito nets, hygiene supplies and health education campaigns. The food Source: DNA supply has also been affected by the floods, as some impassable roads are limiting the movements of goods. Ongoing efforts should be intensified, particularly in the areas of water supply and sanitation, and the affected population needs to be disaggregated by level of impact to allocate resources according to need. Additional requests by the National Emergency Operation Center (CENOE) led by INGC include more aerial support, given that most of the accommodation centers are inaccessible by road. Water purification units that can be used not only for this emergency relief effort but for future responses are recommended. The assistance for the recovery phase includes the immediate provision of seeds and tools for the second planting season, and rehabilitation of economic and social infrastructure.

More detailed information is required to better plan for recovery. A rapid food security assessment, led by the. Vulnerability Assessment Group of the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (GAV/SETSAN) with partner support, is planned for mid‐March. The specific objectives of assessment are to: • Evaluate the food security situation in the affected areas, including an analysis of how it will evolve and what future risks may be; • Determine the type and level of needs; and • Determine the appropriate response, including the period of the year when the response options are most needed, and how they should interface with ongoing programs.

Cropping season update and food security implications

The Crop and Early Warning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture cropping season preliminary report indicates that six percent of total cultivated land was lost due to floods and drought. Maputo is the worst‐affected area, where more than 60 percent of the planted area has been lost. In Maputo, the worst‐affected districts are Marracuene, Manhiça, Boane and Moamba. In , the worst‐affected districts are Chokwé, Guija, Chibuto, Massangena, Chigubo, Massingir, Mabalane, Manjacaze and Xai‐Xai, while in Inhambane Province, Govuro, Inhassoro, Vilankulos, Mabote, Funhalouro, Panda, Massinga and Homoine are the most drought‐affected districts. Normally, households in the region would harvest greens crops in January, but limited green crops were available this season due to the climatic shocks.

In most of these southern districts, many households are now, or are about to become, food insecure. Normally, households in the region begin harvesting green crops in January, and the main harvest begins in March, but crops have largely failed due to the drought conditions in Gaza and Inhambane and parts of Maputo provinces. As a result, households are quickly expending their reserves from the good 2005/06 harvest, and poor households with limited diversity in access to food and income will soon be forced to reduce consumption, rely on market purchases earlier than normal, and employ negative coping strategies later in the year. These effects will be especially strong later in the year if the second season coming in March/April is bad as well.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

In the central region, flooding has caused crop damage in extensive areas along the Zambezi River, including the districts of Zumbo, Mutarara and Mágoe in ; Mopeia, Chinde and Morrumbala in Zambézia Province; Guro and Tambara in Manica Province; and Caia, Chemba and Marromeu in Sofala Province. Conversely, Machanga and Machaze in Sofala and Figure 4. Rainfall as percent of normal Manica provinces respectively were little affected by the poorly distributed rainfall. In the northern region, excessive rains and localized floods occurred mainly in (in Moma and ) and (in Muidumbe, Macomia and districts – see Figure 4).

In terms of final production estimates, in the northern region the overall maize production will not be significantly affected by the excessive rains, and it is likely that the yields will be superior to the 2005/06 season production. This will guarantee food availability and access for many households that depend on their own production for consumption. However, cassava and groundnut yields are expected to be negatively impacted by the excessive water, given the plants’ sensitivity to disproportionate moisture.

In the central region, the overall production is expected to be high in the highlands, while in lowlands along the Zambezi River the production of maize and sweet potato has been seriously affected by flooding. However, those households impacted by production losses are receiving assistance, and many households have plots in the highlands where crops are faring well. Additionally, the residual moisture after the floods will be favorable for rice production and for second‐season cropping.

In the southern region, maize production has been severely affected, with up to 80 percent yield losses. However, the Source: USGS/FEWS NET prospects for other seasonal crops such as cassava, groundnuts and beans are good. Household food security will depend on individual households’ abilities to generate income and purchase food.

Staple food prices may rise abnormally in south

January maize prices continued to be stable and were well below the five‐year average (from 2002 to 2006) and below last year’s price level. The maize prices at the beginning of 2007 are similar to those in 2005 (see Figure 5), which is likely a result of relatively good agriculture seasons in 2003/04 and 2005/06. In general, prices remained stable for the following six months of 2005, with the exception of parts of the south such as in Chókwe, where poor harvest prospects were already evident after January. Similarly, with the prospects of a poor harvest in the south in the current year, price increases similar to those of 2005 are possible. As poor and middles income groups depend on market purchases to meet food needs, rising prices will undermine their ability to meet their food needs.

In addition, the impacts of heavy flooding in the Zambezi valley, heavy rains in Niassa and Nampula provinces and Cyclone Favio that affected much of the southern and central regions may have a localized effect on maize prices.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update February 2007

Figure 5. Maize retail real prices in select reference markets, in MTn/kg

12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 Jul Jul Oct Apr Apr Oct Jun Jan Jun Jan Feb Mar Mar Feb Aug Sep Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep May May Nampula Beira

14.00 14.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 Jul Oct Apr Jan Jun Mar Feb Nov Jul Aug Sep Dec May Oct Apr Jan Jun Mar Feb Nov Aug Sep Dec May Chokwe Maputo

Source: SIMA

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