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Between the Dragon and the Deep Blue Sea: Thematic Historical Perspectives on a Potential Economic Blockade of China by the United States of America

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Between the Dragon and the Deep Blue Sea: Thematic Historical Perspectives on a Potential Economic Blockade of China by the United States of America BETWEEN THE DRAGON AND THE DEEP BLUE SEA: THEMATIC HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES ON A POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BLOCKADE OF CHINA BY THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA By Lachlan MacFie A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences UNSW Canberra August 2016 Thank you to: Dr. John Reeve & RADM James Goldrick for their knowledge, insights and assistance, Imogen for being the perfect distraction, & Kerrie for her love, support and everything else.x 2 Abstract The thesis employs a thematic approach and comparative historical analysis to assess the strategic efficacy of a potential maritime blockade of the People’s Republic of China by the United States of America and its allies, with reference to associated operational issues. It thus follows broadly the methodology of Alfred Thayer Mahan and, more recently, of such writers as Colin Gray and Geoffrey Till, in terms of using historical case studies to illuminate contemporary maritime strategic issues. After establishing the precise definition of a blockade, the thesis analyses key thematic elements in the history of economic blockade that may relate to the China case. These include issues influencing a state’s comparative vulnerability to economic blockade, such as international law, financial and economic factors, and political and moral considerations. It then discusses the role of economic blockade in wider strategy and the issue of strategic effectiveness, and these themes are subsequently applied in succession to the US-China scenario. The thesis utilizes a variety of historical and contemporary primary sources. The former include letters, personal papers, articles, memoirs, reports and diaries, some of which are available in the documentary resources published by the British Navy Records Society. The latter include statistical and analytical reports by governments and non-governmental organizations, data pertaining to international maritime transport, media articles and various other online sources. A broad cross-section of secondary sources has also been utilized, from the works of the classical maritime-strategic historians Alfred Thayer Mahan and Julian Corbett to standard texts and studies by modern naval-maritime scholars such as Paul Kennedy, Bruce Elleman, Sarah Paine, and legal scholars including Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg. More recent studies employed include those of Nicholas Lambert, Stephen Cobb, and Lance E. Davis and Stanley L. Engerman. The thesis concludes that a US economic blockade of China could be strategically effective, albeit in an indirect manner, but that legal and political considerations in particular would probably limit the scope within which this belligerent right could be exercised. 3 Table of Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................. 5 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 7 DEFINING BLOCKADE ......................................................................................................................... 12 FLEET BLOCKADES: CLOSE, CLOSED, OPEN & DISTANT ............................................................................... 15 ECONOMIC BLOCKADE, GUERRE DE COURSE & ECONOMIC WARFARE ......................................................... 18 EXCLUSION ZONES, SANCTIONS & OTHER NON-BLOCKADES ........................................................................ 25 ECONOMIC BLOCKADES IN HISTORY: THEMES AND VARIATIONS .................................................... 31 ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO ECONOMIC BLOCKADE: ................................................................................ 31 THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC BLOCKADE IN A WIDER STRATEGY & THE QUESTION OF STRATEGIC EFFECTIVENESS ..................................................................................................................................................... 58 ON INTERNATIONAL LAW & ECONOMIC BLOCKADE ....................................................................................... 68 THEMATIC CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 77 A US ECONOMIC BLOCKADE OF CHINA? ............................................................................................ 80 CHINA’S COMPARATIVE VULNERABILITY TO ECONOMIC BLOCKADE ........................................................... 80 THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC BLOCKADE IN THE US’ WIDER STRATEGY & THE QUESTION OF STRATEGIC EFFECTIVENESS .................................................................................................................................................. 105 LEGAL IMPERATIVES FOR THE US .................................................................................................................. 114 APPLYING HISTORICAL THEMES TO THE US-CHINA CASE: A SUMMARY ....................................... 119 CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS: TO BLOCKADE OR NOT TO BLOCKADE? ........................................... 121 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................ 126 PRIMARY SOURCES: ........................................................................................................................................... 126 SECONDARY SOURCES: ...................................................................................................................................... 134 4 List of Abbreviations & Acronyms A2/AD Anti-Access/Area Denial AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ASB Air-Sea Battle ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile ASM Anti-Ship Missile ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare BM Ballistic Missile C2 Command and Control CPC Communist Party of China CRS Congressional Research Service CSBA Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EIA Energy Information Administration (USA) EU European Union IPR International Property Rights International Security and Assistance Force ISAF (Afghanistan) Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global JAM-GC Commons JIT Just-in-time JOAC Joint Operational Access Concept NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NSA National Security Authority NSR Northern Sea Route (Arctic Ocean) Organisation for Economic Cooperation and OECD Development PLA People's Liberation Army PLA-N People's Liberation Army- Navy PRC Peoples Republic of China 5 RAF Royal Air Force REE Rare Earth Elements RMA Revolution(s) in Military Affairs RN Royal Navy ROK Republic of Korea RUSI Royal United Services Institute SLOC Sea Lines of Communication SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine (Nuclear) SSN Attack Submarine (Nuclear) UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCLOS United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States (of America) USAF United States Air Force USCG United States Coast Guard USMC United States Marine Corps USN United States Navy USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ULCC Ultra Large Crude Carrier UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicle VLCC Very Large Crude Carrier 6 Introduction Relations between the United States of America (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are perhaps the most significant strategic issue of the early twenty-first century. Due to the continuing tension between these two states, the subject of potential war is never far from the lips, pens or keyboards of a variety of observers and interested parties. From the US perspective, it has been suggested that an economic blockade of China could be an efficacious strategy in the event of a conflict.1 China, the Second-come-First-World power that is set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy, would surely be vulnerable to such economic disruption- and the US is incidentally best placed to undertake it via its extensive maritime power. This is far from a simple matter, with significant strategic implications, some arising out of the increasingly integrated global economy, while others stem from the not inconsiderable legal issues. Historically, blockade has been one of the oldest and most commonly employed naval strategies, and its close relative, the city-siege, has been an element of history since humans could build walls- which is what the sea equates to in a blockade. Despite the significance of blockading such an immense continental power as modern China, it has received scant attention in a historical context. This can be explained in part by much of the writing on this subject being undertaken by people and organisations that are very much ‘in the moment’. They may not have the time or inclination for depth and detail (journalists, for example) or may be focused on one or a few specific factors (think-tanks may fit into this category).2 Strategic analysts moreover perhaps have a tendency not to think historically.3 A comparative historical analysis of the potential efficacy of a US economic blockade of China is therefore wanting. This historical thesis seeks to go some way towards filling that gap by utilising the contemporary issue as a point of reference for a thematic
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