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Buy Conch Venture 8 December 2017 Construction Materials Conch Venture Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date Buy Conch Venture 8 December 2017 Forecast Change Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 7 Dec 2017 (HKD) 17.90 Resources 0586.HK 586 HK HSI 0586 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 23.45 Construction Materials 52-week range (HKD) 18.34 - 13.50 HANG SENG INDEX 29,074 Tie up with Dongjiang Environmental, what's the potential? Valuation & Risks Johnson Wan Cooperation agreement signing ceremony on Dec 6 in Shenzhen Conch Venture (CV) and Dongjiang Environment (DJE) announced a strategic Research Analyst agreement on Dec 4 after market close and we also attended the contract signing +852-2203 6163 ceremony on Dec 6 in SZ. After speaking with management from both sides, we believe the DJE tie-up will be beneficial for both parties and help CV speed up the Key changes TP 23.52 to 23.45 -0.3% growth of its hazardous and sludge waste incineration business, particularly in ↓ Sales (FYE) 2,383 to 2,699 13.2% Guangdong (GD) province. Both parties will likely co-invest in solid and hazardous ↑ Op prof margin 34.2 to 30.1 ↓ -12.0% waste processing capacity using cement kilns with Guangdong the pilot testing (FYE) site for this. We believe the partnership will ultimately help CV secure more Net profit (FYE) 3,137.3 to ↑ 0.3% hazardous waste processing licenses and accelerate its business development in 3,145.6 collecting waste from industrial users. Therefore, the partnership provides higher Source: Deutsche Bank visibility of CV's reaching and exceeding its 3mt capacity target by 2020 or even Price/price relative 5mt by 2022, and helps it deliver on its 50% earnings CAGR target. As it stands 30 now, we see no earnings accretion for 2018 since the construction of waste disposal by cement kilns has yet to begin in GD. 20 10 While the agreement remains a framework showing management's willingness Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 to cooperate rather than actual cooperation details or quantitative numbers, we Conch Venture HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) see several ways that CV could benefit from the partnership. Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m n DJE is backed by Guangsheng, a wholly owned subsidiary of Guangdong Absolute 11.7 26.8 25.4 SASAC, which has been commissioned by the provincial government HANG SENG INDEX -2.4 2.8 24.1 to implement its 13th Five-Year Plan for environmental conservation. Source: Deutsche Bank This would help CV to secure local government approvals to install Key indicators (FY1) hazardous waste disposal facilities in Conch's 8 clinker production lines ROE (%) 16.5 in Yingde, Qingyuan Qingxin and Yangchun. CV management believes a Net debt/equity (%) -8.7 maximum of 1mt hazardous waste processing capacity can be installed Book value/share (CNY) 11.28 in Guangdong if it co-invests with DJE. Price/book (x) 1.35 Net interest cover (x) – n Solid and hazardous waste swap enables better resources allocation Operating profit margin (%) 30.1 between the two companies. While DJE is qualified to handle 44 types Source: Deutsche Bank of hazardous waste, cement kilns are allowed by law to process only c.30 types, subject to mixability and quality assurance of clinkers. CV can dispose of untreatable waste to DJE while output waste such as sludge and fly ash produced by DJE can be further processed by CV to eliminate any residue, a unique feature of waste disposal by cement kilns. Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its reseDistributedarch repo ron:ts. T08/12/2017hus, inves t15:00:17ors shou lGMTd be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE ’ S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU. 0bed7b6cf11c 8 December 2017 Construction Materials Conch Venture n In terms of long-term development, DJE is a leading solid and hazardous waste processor in China, with 32 processing facilities spanning 13 provinces and 25k+ clients. The partnership will expand CV's client reach to ensure the speedy ramp-up of its facilities. The potential processing capacity of CV is high as it has access to Conch's c.150 clinker production lines nationwide, not to mention those of its partners CNBM and WCC. The capacity of DJE is somewhat capped by its landfill capacity. DJE could retain the most profitable type of hazardous waste for internal processing and send the rest of the lower ASP waste to CV, given its lower treatment cost, providing a win-win for both. Valuation and risks We update our model to reflect the latest BOT projects construction progress and change in project mix. We value Conch Venture using SOTP with a 20% conglomerate discount, applying a 2018E 12x P/E to cement, 13x to waste incineration, 14x to hazardous waste incineration, 8x to residual heat, vertical mills and green building materials, and 15x to the port business. Risks include a heavy reliance on Conch Cement and a lack of government support for the solid/ hazardous waste disposal business. Figure 1: Demand for hazardous waste is increasing Figure 2: DJE is the largest hazardous waste processor steadily in China in China (2017) 90 mt 1.8 mt 1.6 80 74.4 67.6 1.4 70 61.5 1.2 60 55.4 1 49.9 50 44.5 0.8 39.8 0.6 40 34.7 36.3 31.6 0.4 30 0.2 20 0 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: MEP, Frost & Sullivan Source: Company data Forecasts and ratios Year End Dec 31 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Sales (CNYm) 2,057.5 2,032.2 2,699.2 3,563.8 4,215.8 EBITDA (CNYm) 685.7 776.4 903.1 1,344.8 1,876.3 Reported NPAT (CNYm) 1,944.3 1,980.6 3,145.6 3,539.2 4,156.0 Reported EPS FD(CNY) 1.08 1.10 1.74 1.96 2.30 DB EPS FD(CNY) 1.08 1.10 1.74 1.96 2.30 OLD DB EPS FD(CNY) 1.08 1.10 1.74 1.97 2.34 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% -0.3% -1.6% DB EPS growth (%) -13.1 1.9 58.8 12.5 17.4 PER (x) 13.3 11.3 8.7 7.7 6.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.5 9.9 12.2 7.2 4.4 DPS (net) (CNY) 0.30 0.30 0.59 0.61 0.67 Yield (net) (%) 2.1 2.4 3.9 4.1 4.4 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 8 December 2017 Construction Materials Conch Venture Model updated: 08 December 2017 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Running the Numbers Financial Summary Asia DB EPS (CNY) 1.24 1.08 1.10 1.74 1.96 2.30 Reported EPS (CNY) 1.24 1.08 1.10 1.74 1.96 2.30 China DPS (CNY) 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.59 0.61 0.67 Industrials BVPS (CNY) 8.23 9.01 9.83 11.28 12.64 14.33 Weighted average shares (m) 1,805 1,805 1,805 1,805 1,805 1,805 Average market cap (CNYm) 25,644 25,951 22,420 27,374 27,374 27,374 Conch Venture Enterprise value (CNYm) 12,515 11,983 7,675 10,992 9,681 8,332 Reuters: 0586.HK Bloomberg: 586 HK Valuation Metrics P/E (DB) (x) 11.5 13.3 11.3 8.7 7.7 6.6 Buy P/E (Reported) (x) 11.5 13.3 11.3 8.7 7.7 6.6 P/BV (x) 1.64 1.49 1.26 1.35 1.20 1.06 Price (7 Dec 17) HK$ 17.90 FCF Yield (%) 0.1 nm nm nm nm nm Target price HK$ 23.45 Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 2.1 2.4 3.9 4.1 4.4 EV/Sales (x) 7.16 5.82 3.78 4.07 2.72 1.98 52-week Range HK$ 13.50 18.34 – EV/EBITDA (x) 24.6 17.5 9.9 12.2 7.2 4.4 Market Cap HK$ 32,305m EV/EBIT (x) 27.6 19.5 11.0 13.5 7.9 4.8 US$ 4,137m Income Statement (CNYm) Sales revenue 1,748 2,057 2,032 2,699 3,564 4,216 Company Profile Gross profit 574 782 797 964 1,454 2,009 Conch Venture is a leading provider of energy preservation EBITDA 509 686 776 903 1,345 1,876 and environmental protection solutions. It is a major Depreciation 55 70 78 91 113 141 shareholder of Conch Holdings, the parent of Conch Cement Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 and Conch Profile. EBIT 454 616 699 812 1,232 1,735 Net interest income(expense) 45 71 48 70 64 61 Associates/affiliates 1,980 1,540 1,536 2,679 2,773 3,039 Exceptionals/extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other pre-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit before tax 2,480 2,227 2,282 3,561 4,070 4,836 Income tax expense 107 167 154 182 268 372 Minorities 134 115 147 233 262 308 1yr Price Performance Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Net profit 2,239 1,944 1,981 3,146 3,539 4,156 DB adjustments (including dilution) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 DB Net profit 2,239 1,944 1,981 3,146 3,539 4,156 Cash Flow (CNYm) 1 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Cash flow from operations 337 65 46 -21 342 321 Net Capex -318 -88 -226 -317 -535 -655 0586.HK HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) Free cash flow 19 -23 -180 -337 -193 -334 Equity raised/(bought back) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Margin Trends Dividends paid -357 -577 -467 -541 -1,072 -1,109 Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 40 1,130 117 438 -236 241 50 Other investing/financing cash flows -1,343 -255 363 1,141 1,174 1,277 40 Net cash flow -1,641 275 -167 700 -327 74 30 Change in working capital -121 -500 -591 -741 -735 -1,184 20 10 0 Balance Sheet (CNYm) 14 15 16 17E 18E 19E Cash and other liquid assets 2,708 2,332 2,166 2,866 2,539 2,613 EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Tangible fixed assets 1,008 998 1,030 1,198 1,355 1,502 Goodwill/intangible assets 249 353 549 607 872 1,239 Growth & Profitability Associates/investments 11,668 12,656 13,773 15,381 17,045 18,869 35 25 Other assets 1,574 2,160 2,695 3,572 4,598 5,858 30 Total assets 17,207 18,500 20,213 23,623 26,409 30,079 25 20 20 15 Interest bearing debt 800 530 595 1,033 797 1,037 15 10 10 Other liabilities 1,106 1,220 1,271 1,407 1,698
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