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Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee – Evaluation

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Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee – Evaluation INDONESIA BANK DANAMON DCA GUARANTEE EVALUATION INDONESIA BANK DANAMON DCA GUARANTEE EVALUATION SEPTEMBER 2009 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by SEGURA/IP3 Partners LLC under the SEGIR Global Business, Trade and Investment II Indefinite Quantity Contract (IQC), Number EEM-I-00-07-00001-00 Task Order # 04, Development Credit Authority Evaluation DISCLAIMER The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. On the Cover: Auto tire store, one of the borrowers with Bank Danamon’s Danamon Simpan Pinjam (Danamon Savings and Loan) in Aceh. Photo courtesy of Anastasia Liu Other sectors under the DCA Guarantee: Agriculture and Retail. Photos USAID/Indonesia Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee Evaluation i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................ iii ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 1 EVALUATION OBJECTIVES, QUESTIONS AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................. 3 KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 4 I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 11 II. PURPOSE OF THE EVALUATION ............................................................................................................ 16 III. EVALUATION METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 18 IV. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................ 20 OUTPUT-LEVEL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................... 20 OUTCOME LEVEL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 36 IMPACT LEVEL FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................... 38 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ON THE ROLE OF EXOGENOUS FACTORS IN GUARANTEE PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 41 V. SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................ 43 OUTPUT-LEVEL CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................................................... 43 OUTCOME-LEVEL CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 44 IMPACT-LEVEL CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 44 CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE INFLUENCE OF EXOGENOUS FACTORS .............................................................. 44 ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................................................... 45 Annex A – Selected Economic Indicators for Indonesia (from World Bank and Economic Intelligence Unit Data) ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46 Annex B – Documents Reviewed .............................................................................................................................................. 47 Annex C – Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Evaluation Framework and Usable Indicators ...................................... 49 Annex D – Interview Guides ...................................................................................................................................................... 54 Annex E – Contact List ................................................................................................................................................................ 83 Annex F – Aceh Loans Placed Under the Guarantee .......................................................................................................... 85 Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee Evaluation i FIGURES FIGURE 1. USAID’S CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING DCA GUARANTEES ....................................................... 17 FIGURE 2. DSP’S PROJECTED AND ACTUAL OUTSTANDING LOAN VALUE NATIONWIDE, 2004 - APRIL 2009 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 FIGURE 3. CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF LOANS PLACED UNDER THE GUARANTEE IN THE TARGETED AREAS OVER TIME ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 TABLES TABLE 1. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BANK DANAMON/DSP DCA LOAN GUARANTEE IN INDONESIA .......................................................................................................................................................................................................2 TABLE 2. TOTAL NUMBER AND VOLUME OF LOANS UNDER THE GUARANTEE TO DATE, BY TARGET AREA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................6 TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF THE DCA GUARANTEE TO BANK DANAMON ............................................................................. 14 TABLE 4. MSE CREDIT OUTSTANDING (2004-MARCH 2009) .................................................................................................... 16 TABLE 5. SUMMARY OF GUARANTEE STATISTICS1 ....................................................................................................................... 28 TABLE 6. NEW LOANS PLACED UNDER THE GUARANTEE BETWEEN OCTOBER 1, 2008, AND MARCH 31, 2009, BY SECTOR ................................................................................................................................................................. 33 TABLE 7. DSP ANNUAL INCREASES IN TOTAL OUTSTANDING LOAN VALUE – 2005-2008 ....................................... 34 Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee Evaluation ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The evaluation team gratefully acknowledges the assistance received from many quarters during the conduct of this evaluation. Specifically, we thank the following individuals: • Alison L. Eskesen, EGAT/DC, who provided valuable background information to the evaluation team, and accompanied the team during the first week of the field trip to Indonesia; • Anastasia Liu, EGAT/DC, who accompanied the evaluation team throughout the field visit to Indonesia, and whose notes provided a valuable resource for the data analysis phase of the evaluation; • John Pennell and his staff at the Economic Growth Office of USAID/Indonesia, who helped with in-country logistics and provided useful information to the evaluation team throughout the data collection phase in Indonesia; we especially thank Raya Soendjoto, who assisted the team during interviews and the site visit to Banda Aceh (including occasional help with interpretation), and Sylvia Sihombing, who helped with hotel and other logistics in Jakarta; • Tim Anderson and his staff at USAID/Indonesia’s field office in Banda Aceh, who provided transport and other assistance during the field visit; we particularly appreciate the help of Yuhelmy Kaban, who accompanied the team for several interviews and assisted with interpretation during interviews with loan recipients; and • The many key informants from bank and microfinance organizations, USAID and other donor organizations, and microenterprises, whom we interviewed and from whom we solicited data prior to and during the data collection phase; we especially appreciate the substantial time and assistance given to us by the headquarters and branch staff from Bank Danamon in Jakarta and Banda Aceh. Indonesia Bank Danamon DCA Guarantee Evaluation iii ACRONYMS BPD State-owned regional development bank BRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia BPR Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (“Credit for the people”)—mostly rural, privately owned, government-licensed banks (of which there are about 1,800-2,000 in Indonesia), which provide loans to MSEs, sometimes in competition with Bank Danamon’s DSP BTPN Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional—the competitor private commercial bank to which many DSP managers and staff moved during mid-2007 CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CMS Credit Management System DCA Development Credit Authority
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