Volume 1 • Issue 7 • Autumn 2018

LineNew Zealand’s of Defence andDefence National Security Magazine

Interview: Dawn of Chief of New Zealand’s Army space age

NZDF’s climate Choosing change between the challenge US and China

Big events and CDSS biennial the fixated security person threat conference

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www.ga-asi.com ©2018 General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Leading The Situational Awareness Revolution CONTENTS Welcome to the Autumn 2018 issue of Line of Defence! In this edition, we are again joined by Minister of Defence, DEFENCE Ron Mark, and opposition defence spokesperson, Mark Mitchell, to gain perspectives from both sides of politics on defence procurement and other key issues. We receive an update from NZDF on the Protected Mobility Capability Project, NZDIA’s takeaways from the ADM Congress, and we survey the analysis on Australia’s Defence Export Strategy. In his popular services chiefs interview series, VUW Centre for Strategic Studies’ Dr Peter Greener talks with Chief of Army, Major General Peter Kelly, about personnel, deployment and capability challenges faced by Army out to 2035. With cyber recruitment a looming issue – not least for Defence – Massey University’s Nick Nelson explores the human factors in 6 Chief of Army: The New Zealand Army – Present cybersecurity talent management. and Future Also in Defence, we interview CEO of Embraer Defense & Security Jackson Schneider on the KC-390; we talk with 10 Q&A with Jackson Schneider, President and CEO Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck, and we profile of Embraer Defense & Security Leonardo’s C-27J Spartan. We’re also joined by Massey University Visiting Scholars Dr. Egemen Bezci and Dr Colin 12 Minister: Building cross-party support and gaining reassurance in procurement Robinson, who respectively provide insights into the NZDFs climate change challenge and the development of the Joint 14 Mark Mitchell: Cutbacks, Capabilities, and Services Support Component. Acknowledgements April sees the staging of the Massey University Centre for Defence and Security Studies’ (CDSS) 2nd biennial 16 Leonardo’s C-27J Spartan: when capability conference – bringing together around 150 top government matters oficials, academics and private sector representatives from the security sector. We will be there to cover it, and in this 18 Protected Mobility Capability update issue, CDSS director Professor Rouben Azizian provides us with some background. The conference is a critically 20 Rocket Lab’s Peter Beck and the launch of a New important forum for meaningful discussions on the security Zealand space age of New Zealand, and we wish hosts, speakers, facilitators and delegates a most productive two days. 24 Australia’s defence export strategy: a solid centre Dr Wayne Mapp again headlines the International wrapped in hyperbole Security Section, asking “does New Zealand have to choose between China and the United States?” In seeking answers 26 The Kiwi Unicorn in the Hyatt Canberra: NZDIA to this question of our times, he is joined by the University of attends ADM Congress 2018 Waikato’s Dr Reuben Stef. With Wellington having pressed the ‘reset’ button on relations with our neighbours in the Pacific 28 Enhancing cybersecurity through talent amid concerns over China’s rising influence, Dr Tadashi Iwama management considers the case for closer NZ-Japan cooperation in the Pacific. 31 Climate change presents multiple challenges for In Homeland Security, we gain insights into the CIVSEC NZDF 2018 civil security congress and exposition to be hosted in 32 Towards an efective joint force: The Joint Melbourne, and we explore the now widely acknowledged Support Component Command threat posed by ‘fixated persons’ and how law enforcement in various jurisdictions are responding to it. And in Border Security, we profile the harnessing of virtual reality by NZ Customs to improve the customer experience at the border, CONTRIBUTORS & INTERVIEWEES and we welcome the Hawk V patrol vessel. Dr Peter Greener MAJGEN Peter Kelly MNZM Although the year is well underway, I’d like to take this Jackson Schneider Hon Ron Mark opportunity to extend best wishes to our valued partners, Hon Mark Mitchell Dr Egemen Bezci contributors and readers for a fantastic 2018! Our next issue – Peter Beck Gillian Rodger in June – will bring you a wrap-up from CIVSEC 2018, a focus Nicholas Dynon Jennie Vickers on simulation, safe cities and ongoing procurement projects, Nick Nelson Dr Colin D Robinson and a look ahead to Land Forces 2018! Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO Dr Reuben Stef Prof Reuben Azizian Dr Tadashi Iwami Nicholas Dynon Dr Richard Shortt Carlton Rufell Auckland

4 Line of Defence ISSN 2463-5774 (Print) • ISSN 2463-6258 (Online) INTERNATIONAL SECURITY HOMELAND SECURITY

36 Does New Zealand have to choose between 44 Big events: Is New Zealand prepared for the China and the United States fixated person threat?

38 Small state syndrome: can New Zealand balance 45 CIVSEC 2018: Security, safety and sovereignty for the the US and China? Indo-Asia-Pacific

40 Centre for Defence and Security Studies to host 46 New Zealand yet to target the threat posed by second biennial security conference fixated persons

42 The case for closer Japan - New Zealand cooperation in the Pacific BORDER SECURITY 48 NZ Customs: Understanding and improving the traveller experience

50 International Customs Day celebrated with Hawk V launch

CONTACT DETAILS Managing Editor: Defsec Media publishes Line of Defence, NZSM and Nick Dynon FireNZ Magazines - premier publications covering M: +64 (0)22 366 3691 industry sectors that help keep Kiwis safe. E: [email protected] Find us online www.defsecmedia.co.nz or Publisher: www.linkedin.com/company/ Craig Flint defsec-media-limited T: +64 (07) 868 2703 E: [email protected] www.facebook.com/defsecmedia/ Postal and delivery address: 27 West Cresent www.twitter.com/DefsecNZ Te Puru 3575, Thames RD5, New Zealand

ASSOCIATION UPCOMING ISSUE Winter 2018 Land Forces 2018, defence innovation, procurement updates, debates in national security, Pacific fisheries, CIVSEC 2018 wrap-up, safe cities.

Copyright: No article or part thereof may be reproduced without prior consent of the publisher. Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, neither the publishers nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accept any form of liability whatsoever for its contents including advertisements, editorials, opinions, advice or information or for any consequences from its use.

Line of Defence 5 DEFENCE Chief of Army: The New Zealand Army – Present and Future

Last year the New Zealand Army issued its Future Land Operating Concept 2035 – Integrated Land Missions. In this interview with Chief of Army, Major General Peter Kelly MNZM, Centre for Strategic Studies (VUW) Senior Fellow Dr Peter Greener asks what are the current and future challenges Army faces out to 2035?

PG: What do you see as the major at around 9%; in fact, for the last three threats and challenges the New Zealand years attrition has been sitting under Army will have to face out to 2035? 9%. Our soldiers are staying longer and the average length of service has grown; MAJGEN Kelly: There are many global it’s now nine years for men and eight challenges that have implications for years for women. New Zealand. In the bigger picture, an assertive Russia and a nuclear capable PG: Previous Defence White Papers and North Korea each pose their own Capability Plans have noted that Army challenge. Can a United States President will need to recruit additional personnel live with a nuclear-armed ICBM capable for rotation on extended operations North Korea? There are also the where New Zealand has a major ongoing challenges within the South commitment. Can you comment on the China Sea where many nations have challenges associated with that? overlapping territorial claims that will require resolution. MAJGEN Kelly: Four years ago, the More people than ever live in decision was taken to prioritise trade- growing urban areas and future confict training to fll a capability gap and we will be fought in the cities; we have seen have been moderately successful with this in the conficts in Iraq and Syria. that. We have also been growing our This presents particular demands for cadre of NCOs so that we have a strong cohort of junior leaders and trainers. fghting forces, particularly in clearing Chief of Army, Major General Peter Kelly operations and the precise application Were we called on for another of combat power. respond in our part of the world in deployment similar in size and scope The rise of the youth bulge may times of disaster. to Timor-Leste, we would increase pose its own threats. The majority our recruitment of the combat trades, of young people live in developing PG: Maintaining an Army prepared such as infantry, armoured and artillery, countries, with large numbers to respond is one of your major at the time of the frst deployment. in our own region, and they can responsibilities. What is the current These soldiers would then be available be ready recruitment targets for situation with regards to recruitment for rotations two and three and so on. violent extremists. Are the jobs and and retention of personnel? They would undertake a 16-week recruit opportunities going to be there for course followed, for example, by 12 them? Inequality can be a driver of MAJGEN Kelly: In 2011 to 2012 we lost weeks of advanced infantry training. We anger and discontent. over 700 personnel, but numbers are up would be ready. The ubiquitous nature of technologies now to a total Regular Force of about has to be acknowledged; we have to be 4,700. We now hold recruitment levels at PG: Linked to this are there any plans to prepared for a future involving artifcial a steady state, with four recruit intakes change the way in which Reserve forces intelligence and fully autonomous systems. each year varying from 80-110 each, are trained and utilised? We’ve already seen what impact drones plus a Reserve Force Intake of similar have on the battlefeld. numbers and 60 Offcer Cadets. MAJGEN Kelly: You will be aware that Climate change is of course a major Retention rates now are really good, in the 1970s and 1980s we had a very issue. We have to be prepared to help with current attrition near historic lows large territorial force of about 5,000, but

6 Line of Defence MAJGEN Kelly with Republic of Korea Ambassador HE Yeo Seung-bae. they weren’t employed in any systematic The Chief of Defence Human Regimental Sergeant Majors, so we are way. We now have about 1,700 and we Resources has a team exploring how increasing the number of women role currently employ 190 full-time within we can improve here, and Army are models. Army. It is crucial for us that we have working to get those who have been the ability to call on them for two or recruited back into their communities PG: When do you think we might see three years full-time, and then they so there is greater understanding of the the frst woman badged as a member of return to civilian life. opportunities Army offers. the SAS? Whilst we deploy reserves on operations we do have ambitions to PG: Following on from this, and noting MAJGEN Kelly: We have been deploying deploy more of them. Logisticians, UN Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace women in confict zones and they have gunners and engineers are integrated and Security, what steps are being taken worked with the NZSAS for some time. into Regular Force units and that’s a to recruit more women soldiers and In Afghanistan, women were embedded model we are considering across Army. ensure that pathways for promotion to in forward operating bases in Bamiyan Having said that, we still see a place for senior ranks are available? and were very active in the patrolling strong Reserve battalions of their AOs. In 1999 in East Timor MAJGEN Kelly: Some four years ago our we had several women working with PG: With the changing demography colleagues in the Ministry of Defence the NZSAS during their mobile patrols; of New Zealand’s population, what produced a report titled Maximising they were the precursors of our female challenges do you see for building an opportunities for Military Women in the engagement team with the NZSAS. Army that better refects contemporary New Zealand Defence Force. It highlighted In 2015 the US Army’s Ranger New Zealand? that retention of women was an issue, School was the frst special operations but as I have indicated we have seen unit to have women meet the standards MAJGEN Kelly: It is a challenge to improvements here. of its Ranger course. Though our better refect the new demography. Whilst women account for only selection process is tough, I don’t think Currently Maori comprise 18% of the 11% of the Army’s soldiers, women it will be long. Army, Pacifc Island are about 5 or 6%, offcers form over 20% of the offcer but it needs to be higher to match 8% corps. Growing numbers of women PG: Perhaps linking all of these within NZ. Our Asian soldiers are only are in senior leadership positions, from questions together, there is a Force 2% of the force and we recognise that Brigadier Ferris, Director of Defence Design Review underway. When might needs to be addressed. Legal Services, through to women we see the outcome of that Review?

Line of Defence 7 DEFENCE We have replaced all in-service individual weapon systems and that has already made a big impact across the Defence Force. We have also introduced new and very capable long-range sniper and anti-materiel rifes and this provides the degree of precision necessary on today’s battlefelds. We are a light force and we need to be lethal and precise when necessary.

PG: What do you see as the major challenges for capability development for the future Army?

MAJGEN Kelly: Soldier protection is of MAJGEN Kelly visiting the Republic of Fiji Military Forces Headquarters. absolute importance in a light infantry army and reducing the weight a soldier MAJGEN Kelly: The Force Design Zealand builds a whole-of-Government must carry is a serious challenge. With project is the theme for the Chief of approach? body armour, advanced ballistic helmet Army’s seminar in May. The discussions systems and battery packs the average we have there will contribute to the MAJGEN Kelly: That is something we soldier can end up carrying over 35-50 shape of the future force. regularly work on. Exercises in the Pacifc kg. provide opportunities for us to work For example, more technology PG: How important are exercises such for instance with MFAT, NZ Police and enabling soldiers consumes more power as Southern Katipo to the development NGOs as well as our Pacifc brothers and requires more batteries, which leads of joint operations for the NZDF, and and sisters and it makes sense to invest in to greater weight. How do we multiply to ensuring interoperability with our developing such an approach. the effect of the soldier? partners and allies? We’d like to be fast followers in PG: With regards to capability concert with our Five Eyes partners MAJGEN Kelly: Southern Katipo development, how do you envisage and watch where they go in terms of provides a crucial opportunity for the the exponential growth of technology soldier systems capability development. development of joint operations and impacting on the Army of the future? We’ve already seen robotic mules and the Joint Task Force concept. We have autonomous vehicles which can travel in the opportunity of working not just MAJGEN Kelly: There are two major support of lightly equipped soldiers, and with the other services, but with a wide areas we are working on to ensure that this is an example of an important area range of other government and non- we can look after our people and take for future development. government organisations. Southern care of the Future Force in the face of Katipo provides a unique opportunity technology. These are developing the for testing personnel and systems. Network Enabled Army and providing Exercise Southern Katipo 17 (SK17) Protected Mobility. included the New Zealand Customs The Network Enabled Army is Service, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and about providing situational awareness Trade, New Zealand Police, Ministry 24/7, about using ISR and getting for Primary Industries, New Zealand information when and where it’s needed. Transport Authority, Immigration New You have to have the ability to share Zealand, Ministry of Health, District and receive situational awareness data to Health Boards, Red Cross and St John work with coalition partners. New Zealand. For Protected Mobility we have the In addition, SK17 involved military Light Armoured Vehicles, the LAVs, personnel from Australia, Brunei, and these have proved themselves in Canada, Chile, Fiji, New Caledonia, combat in Afghanistan, but we have no Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, current capability below that and the Tonga, Timor Leste, the United current Protected Mobility project will Kingdom and the United States, helping address that gap. We need PMVs that Dr Peter Greener is a Senior Fellow at the can carry between 4-10 fully equipped signifcantly to develop interoperability. Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria soldiers in a range of confgurations for University Wellington. He is also an Honorary PG: Given Army’s recent history of a variety of missions that do not require Professor and was previously Academic Dean involvement in peace and stability the full capability that the LAV currently at the Command and Staf College of the operations, how important is it that New provides. New Zealand Defence Force

8 Line of Defence SOMEWHERE.

FLY WE MAKE IT

The A400M is the most modern airlifter in the world offering game changing capabilities for military airlift. It delivers heavy and outsize loads almost anywhere, thanks to its ability to f y far, fast and high, and land on short and unpaved airstrips. And its unique versatility means it can carry out a range of missions – be it strategic lift, tactical delivery or air refueling.

Versatility. We make it f y. DEFENCE Q&A with Jackson Schneider, President and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security

In this exclusive interview with President and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security, Jackson Schneider, Line of Defence seeks an update on the KC-390 and asks what sets the swept wing turbo fan aircraf apart from its competition?

Based in São Paulo, Brazil, Jackson Schneider’s role is ensuring the successful development, fight trials programme and delivery of the KC- 390 to Embraer´s growing base of military and other customers. Mr Schneider visited New Zealand in early February on his way to participate in the Singapore Airshow.

LoD: How do you see Embraer´s prospects in New Zealand?

JS: At Embraer we are very pleased to be bringing the KC-390 to market at a time where many Air Forces and organisations are updating and refreshing their Air Mobility capabilities with more modern and more capable Jackson Schneider, CEO of Embraer Defense & Security aircraft. We have been following the New Zealand Defence Force’s Future The airframe and fight control JS: Quite simply, the KC-390 is easier to Air Mobility Capability Project for quite systems have been designed and both operate and maintain. Reliability, some time now, and we are excited to manufactured with the knowledge and maintainability and availability were be offering our new generation multi- experience Embraer brings from almost major design requirements for this mission aircraft, the KC-390 Military 50 years of extensive commercial, aircraft. Reliability through proven Tactical Airlifter because it meets all of executive and military aviation systems, redundant architectures the essential criteria they are looking for manufacturing experience. and robust design all contribute to in this tender. In addition, we are very confident outstanding availability levels which are We understand that air mobility is a in the KC-390’s fast entry into projected to be best-in-class. key capability for New Zealand due to service with high levels of reliability Secondly, it has outstanding cargo its geographical isolation, which requires due to our choice of proven and capacity. Combine this with its faster it to deploy its forces thousands of reliable IAE V2500 engines that speed and the result is incomparable miles to where they are needed. have over 8,000 units in operation productivity for military missions abroad The second task then is to support globally, as well as the Rockwell and to Antarctica. them in these remote regions, so speed Collins Pro Line Fusion Avionics Lastly, Embraer has made sure the and tactical capabilities combined are which are in service with multiple design of the KC-390 leverages reduced the keys to success. The KC-390 has aircraft worldwide. and best-in-class life cycle costs. Life been designed and built to be the key to cycle costs make up an important unlock this potential for countries like LoD: What makes the KC-390 better part of the decision-making process New Zealand. than its competitors? nowadays, so we have designed low

10 Line of Defence life cycle costs into the DNA of the KC-390. This is another of our main competitive advantages. Essentially, we are more affordable to operate with greater availability statistics. Another important characteristic is that the aircraft can perform a variety of missions, such as cargo and troop transport, cargo and simultaneous paratrooper airdrop, aerial refuelling, search and rescue and aerial frefghting. The KC-390 is capable of carrying up to 26 metric tons of cargo at a maximum speed of 470 knots (870 km/h), with the ability to operate in austere environments, including unpaved or damaged runways. This aircraft is a real game changer. swept wing turbofan confgurations. to mention the longer fight times LoD: What is the status of the KC-390 Turbofan aircraft are able to operate compared to a turbofan like the KC- fight test campaign? out of short runways under varying 390, which cruises faster. tactical scenarios because they have very As always, there are trade-offs JS: The fight test campaign has logged effective confgurations and systems between the two, but we are confdent over 1,600 fight hours and is proving controlling the wing spoilers, slats and that many militaries who want multiple the operational and certifcation faps. capabilities rolled into one aircraft will requirements which will be open for Foreign object damage is something choose the benefts of a turbofan over evaluation. The aircraft attained the that affects all aircraft including the the turboprop where it makes sense to Initial Operational Capability and a composite propellers of modern do so. Provisional Type Certifcate from the turboprop aircraft at austere airfelds. Brazilian Aviation Authority (ANAC) With the KC-390, foreign object damage LoD: When will the KC-390 become in December 2017, and we expect to is minimised with her engines mounted operational? achieve Final Operational Capability in in a high and forward confguration. the fourth quarter of 2018. Turboprops tend to be more JS: We are in-production with the susceptible to en route icing aircraft now, and the frst aircraft LoD: Some debate exists between the problems due to their lower operating delivery is on schedule to be handed operational characteristics of a straight altitudes. Operators have also over to the Brazilian Air Force in the wing turboprop aircraft like the C-130 reported that turboprop engines are second half of the year. 2018 will and a swept wing turbo fan aircraft like more complicated, can suffer over deliver the milestones of the KC- the KC-390. What are your thoughts? temperature and over torque stresses, 390 being in-production, certifed are heavier and require more spares. and delivered. This will give a lot of JS: We have seen other air mobility Also, vibration and noise levels can confdence to New Zealand and others aircraft operate very successfully as cause passenger discomfort, not following the KC-390s transition into operational service.

LoD: What can you say about the maturity of the aircraft?

JS: The facts speak for themselves. To date, both prototype aircraft have proven to deliver very high reliability metrics. We have taken them to Farnborough and the Paris Air Shows in consecutive years, and have performed two demonstration tours through Asia, Africa, Europe, Middle East and Oceania including New Zealand. Of particular note, the KC-390 maintained 100% availability and serviceability for these demonstration tours, which is very impressive.

Line of Defence 11 DEFENCE Minister: Building cross-party support and gaining reassurance in procurement

Hon Ron Mark, Minister of Defence, writes that re-examining the Defence procurement programme is about avoiding rash purchases and making the right calls – and it will not afect P3 replacement.

It’s been a busy few months since I frst took over the Defence portfolio. In that time, I’ve received a large number of briefngs on New Zealand’s Defence activity and procurement programmes. However, there is nothing like getting out there and seeing things for yourself to really get a handle on what’s going on. My recent trip to the Middle East was a perfect opportunity to see our Defence Force in action, and what I saw was impressive. One of my goals for the trip was to fnd out if what we’re doing over in the Middle East was needed and valued. Hon Ron Mark with Australian Minister for Defence Hon Marise Payne Well I can assure you, New Zealand is valued, and we are needed. with me. One of my priorities as This re-examining will not affect Our personnel are making a huge Minister of Defence is to build cross the work that’s going on to fnd and difference to security in the region party support for Defence. I wanted recommend a replacement for the P3. through their work and everyone I them to be there for all my meetings It will just provide us with reassurance spoke to was gushing in their praise, and the events I attended so they could around the direction of Defence not only of what we do, but how we do see what was going on and report procurement, and ensure we’re making it. back their fndings to their respective the right calls. New Zealanders have a certain caucuses. The Government is acutely aware way of integrating into a country. We They joined me on a P3 operational we need to be replacing vital equipment, work well with others and it really fight. This was one of the highlights but it’s really important to me that we shows in how we are received by our of the trip. Watching our team work don’t make rash purchases that leave our hosts. Much of this has to do with seamlessly with other nations to help service personnel ill-equipped for the the integration of Maori culture into stop the supply of drugs and guns that future. We’ve done this too many times our Defence Force. Our tikanga is a fund terrorism really brought home the in the past. force multiplier and it makes us more effectiveness of the capability provided Re-examining the procurement effective overseas. by the P3. programme is the right thing to do and This was a common comment from Many of you will know the P3 is in will ensure we get the right piece of kit the leaders I spoke too. In particular the the latter part of its lifespan and we are to do the job we require – for the next US personnel. They were in awe of the looking into what its replacement will be. 50 years or more. sheer volume and quality of the training You will also know the It’s important to me that New we’ve provided during our time there. Government’s coalition agreement Zealand, through its Defence Force, I also had an opportunity to take commits to re-examining the Defence continues to play a vital role in global Hon Andrew Little and the Chair of procurement programme within the security, as well as ensuring we are able the Foreign Affairs, Trade and Defence context of the 2016 Defence Capability to support and assist our friends in the select committee [Simon O’Connor] Plan budget. Pacifc whenever we are needed.

12 Line of Defence KC-390. THE TRUE FIRST RESPONDER. IMPROVE YOUR MISSIONS W ITH STATE-OF-THE-ART Born from our 49-year heritage of reliability, the KC-390 multi-mission aircraft combines a highly flexible platform TECHNOLOGY with the lowest life cycle cost in the medium airlift market. Plus, up to 66 paratroopers can perform high and low-altitude sequential jumps from both its lateral doors and its cargo ramp, increasing efficiency, saving time, and simplifying the delivery of groups of soldiers to a small drop zone.

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1550-008_embraer_first_responder_kc390_paraquedistas_rev_line_of_defence_210x29,7mm.indd 1 3/14/18 12:23 PM DEFENCE

Cutbacks, Capabilities, and Acknowledgements

Hon Mark Mitchell, National Party Spokesperson for Defence, writes that defence funding earmarked in the 2016 Defence White Paper is vital, yet there are ominous indicators, and avoiding cuts may prove an ongoing ‘arm wrestle’ for Defence Minister Ron Mark.

As the Opposition Spokesperson for was occurring. In a sense it is good to Defence one of my most important “... if the see the Minister indicating there were roles is to be watching closely what no plans for reduction in the growth the present Government are doing and Government looks of personnel costs and that there what they are signalling in relation to stretched in terms of would be no need for reprioritisation Defence funding and deployments. of funding or the scaling back of I am committed to ensuring the delivering on their strategic initiatives. This is an important Government doesn’t backtrack on stated commitment and signal from the commitments or try to fnd a way to wider promises, Minister. delay investment. While it’s encouraging that Mr Mark We live in a world with a growing I feel the Finance says there is broad Government support complexity around global threats, and for the $20 billion Defence Capability where our NZDF will continue to have Minister will look Plan launched in 2016, the early signs to Defence to make are he will be locked in an arm wrestle with Grant Robertson over ongoing cuts, meaning this is investment, and if the Government looks stretched in terms of delivering an arm wrestle that on their wider promises, I feel the Finance Minister will look to Defence Mr Mark may lose.” to make cuts, meaning this is an arm wrestle that Mr Mark may lose. an important role in protecting our The 2016 Defence White Paper, interests and assisting our partners, which was consulted on heavily with is in both removing threats and then Australia, is vital to ensure a focus on ensuring stabilisation. appropriate future requirements and In Parliament’s last session I put interoperability with our closest ally. several questions to Defence Minister What will be of concern come Budget Ron Mark seeking answers to questions 2018 – in light of Lieutenant General raised in an article written by Sam Keating’s communications with his Sachdeva, where correspondence by senior offcers – is any indication that the CDF highlighted a message around because of the Government’s tight having to look for savings at the possible spending restrictions any much-needed expense of both new initiatives and Defence spending is put off to a later Hon Mark Mitchell is the Opposition increased investment into personnel. date. Spokesperson for Defence, and Deputy LTGEN Tim Keating warned his senior The Defence Force simply can’t cope Chairperson of the Foreign Afairs, Defence offcers to prepare for spending cuts, with delays to the upgrades to our P3 and Trade Select Committee. He is the former asking them to ‘reprioritise’ resources. Orions, or our C130 Hercules. Any major Minister of Defence, and previously served in I put both matters to Mr Mark in change to the 2016 Defence Capability Plan the NZ Police from 1989 to 2002. Afer leaving the Parliamentary debating chamber, would be extremely disruptive to our the police he worked for eight years as a where he clearly stated that neither Defence Force’s ability to respond to private security contractor.

14 Line of Defence Hon Mark Mitchell with US Ambassador HE Scott Brown, BRIG John Boswell and US Defence Attache COL Chris Patton. future Government needs. It would also TE MANA, and with Lieutenant risk having a negative impact on morale. “There are always Commander Lorna Gray becoming The Defence Capability Plan provides further challenges the first female commander of an a solid blueprint and roadmap for the offshore patrol vessel, HMNZS investment required by Defence for the and barriers to break OTAGO, it really is astonishing that next decade. 30 years ago women weren’t allowed I was fortunate to have spent a night down, and I look on our naval ships. on HMNZS TE KAHA with Chief In addition, I recall from my time of Navy Rear Admiral John Martin, forward to seeing the as Minister of Defence how proud Commander Steve Lenik, and crew, after I was to see the RNZAF launch they returned from deployment last number of women in their world leading School to Skies year, which included joining the Nimitz our Defence Forces programme aimed at attracting more Carrier Strike Group near Japan. young women into the Air Force. I have seen frst-hand how new grow.” It’s vital that our Defence Forces are technologies are required to allow leading the charge in breaking down our Defence Force to conduct their any barriers that may prevent women operations and fulfl our international At the time of writing, it is from opting for a Defence Force obligations, so I was very pleased to International Women’s Day and I would career, and strong initiatives like this see HMNZS TE KAHA has arrived like to acknowledge how proud I am of are the way to go. in Canada for the Frigate Systems the mana wāhine in our Defence Forces. In addition, I would like to end Upgrade. These programme upgrades There are always further challenges this column by acknowledging and for both HMNZS TE KAHA and and barriers to break down, and I look paying my respects to Lieutenant HMNZS TE MANA are critical for forward to seeing the number of women Alfred ‘Bunty’ Preece, the last offcer closing the capability gap between us in our Defence Forces grow. of the 28th Māori Battalion who and our defence partners. However, there are plenty of glass recently passed away in the Chatham’s. The opportunities for improvement ceilings being smashed, for recent Bunty served New Zealand selfessly, are vast, as our RNZN frigates are vital examples I look to our Navy. With voluntarily, and with grace for his to continue the work being conducted history being made as Commander nation back home, and for that we owe to enhance our reputation as a Lisa Hunn became the first female a debt of gratitude. Kua hinga te tōtara Force4Good. to helm RNZN frigate HMNZS o Te Waonui a Tāne.

Line of Defence 15 DEFENCE

Leonardo’s C-27J Spartan: when capability matters

Leonardo argues the case for its multi-mission tactical airlifer, the C-27J Spartan. A short, austere airstrip specialist, it’s an aircraf that reaches places others can’t.

There are two kinds of medium military tactical/battlefeld airlifter and to The installation of an APU transport airplanes: civil derivative ones routinely operate from short austere (Auxiliary Power Unit) makes the that offer good overall characteristics and even unprepared airstrips. Due to aircraft totally independent from ground when used in typically benign its structural robustness and systems support, giving it the capability to environments, and ‘real’ military multi- redundancy, the Spartan offers perform autonomous operations from role airlifters designed to be capable unique qualities not found in aircraft remote areas. The APU operates the to operate in every scenario and in all of the same class or derived from air conditioning, hydraulics, electrical conditions. commercial turboprops: ruggedness, systems and, when installed in the The Leonardo C-27J Spartan reliability, outstanding survivability and medevac confguration, the medical has been designed as a true military maneuverability. equipment.

16 Line of Defence In terms of fight performance, the C-27J boasts a cruise speed of up to 325 kts, which is at least 20-25 percent higher than its direct competitor, a quick climb ability of 10,000 ft in less than six minutes (one-half to one-third of the time needed by the competition) and superior maneuverability, allowing the aircraft to operate with ease and safety in mountainous environments or in remote areas – aided also by its agility and controllability at low speed. The Spartan is qualifed to perform short take-offs and landings (STOL) with a run of less than 600m at take- off and less than 400m to landing at its near maximum weight - on snowy, sandy and unprepared airfelds. Compared with other military transport aircraft in its class, the C-27J has the best descent and climb rate (4,000 and 2,500 ft/min) the Spartan has already fully proven whilst retaining its primary role of and an ability to perform 3g tactical its ability to effectively accomplish any tactical airlifter. Multiple Roll-On/Roll- manoeuvres, minimising its approach tactical transport mission, ranging from Off easily installable and transportable phase and reaching a safe altitude more disaster relief to ‘last tactical mile’ troop mission kits and systems allow the C-27J quickly in high threat scenarios. support. to be confgured to carry out a range Employed with full satisfaction Modern air forces beneft from of tactical transport roles, including by some of the most formidable air highly cost-effective aircraft capable of transportation of troops, cargo, forces, including the US Army, US being quickly reconfgured to perform paratroops and VIPs, cargo airdrop, Coast Guard and Australia’s RAAF, a high number of different missions medivac/casevac, search and rescue, ISR and fre support. The C-27J cargo bay boasts the largest cross section in its class (3.33 x 2.60 m), a wide rear door with opening ramp, a strong cargo foor (4,900 kg/m max load along the entire fuselage length), large paratroop side doors, a cargo loading system designed to handle standard 463L pallets/platforms and many types of cargo loads that can be easily loaded, transported and air- dropped. A long-awaited replacement for the Vietnam-era Caribou, Australia took delivery of 10 Spartans in 2015. According to Air Marshal Geoff Brown, the then Australian Chief of Air Force, “The relatively small Spartan is capable of accessing 1,900 airfelds in Australia, and 400 in the region - more than double the number accessible by the larger Hercules. This will allow RAAF to support humanitarian missions as well as battlefeld airlift in remote locations and unprepared airstrips common in Australia’s region. “The government’s decision to acquire the Spartan,” he said, “will give the Royal Australian Air Force the best tactical air mobility capability that we could acquire.”

Line of Defence 17 DEFENCE Protected Mobility Capability update

At a recent NZDIA member meeting in Wellington, Gillian Rodger, Ministry of Defence Integrated Project Team Lead for the Protected Mobility Capability project, outlined work packages associated with the first of the project’s three phases.

This project will provide a protected mobility capability to meet the challenges of the contemporary and future operating environments – providing ground forces with a mix of mobility, armoured protection and directed frepower. Contemporary operations where New Zealand personnel are deployed will present a range of threats that need to be addressed, including improvised explosive devices, small arms, and rocket propelled grenades. The Protected Mobility project will replace the operational Pinzgauer and Unimog, and review options to upgrade or replace the Light Armoured Vehicle feet, with current planning based on implementation over eleven years from 2018/19 to 2028/29. The benefts of this project include: (i) maintenance of the effectiveness New feet needed to meet challenges of current and future operating environments. of New Zealand Defence Force’s • Phase 2: 2021/22 to 2023/24: equip equipment – might have a shorter protected land mobility capability; (ii) an a Combined-arms Task Group refresh rate and some software refresh improved ability to offer the range of • Phase 3: 2026/27 to 2028/29: rates might only be a few years. military response options required by upgrade or replace a number of All reasonable steps should be taken government; (iii) and an increased ability Light Armoured Vehicles. to ensure vehicles are future proof and to fulfl the duty-of-care commitment to supportable, with enough margin to take military personnel. A business plan for Phase 1 is being advantage of advances in technology. The solution is likely to include a prepared for submission to Cabinet We are working closely with other range of modern vehicle types, with the in the second half of 2018. Alongside projects, such as Network Enabled project employing a phased approach this, planning for acquisition and Army, to ensure digital technology can and multiple sets of business cases over introduction into service is underway. be integrated and enabled. its life to enable a progressive roll-out The Protected Mobility Capability Personnel, infrastructure, logistic of mobility vehicles to the New Zealand project is currently focused on its support and cost for the procurement Army that includes training and support. frst work package, the procurement of sub-systems related to a Protected The project’s three phases allow of Protected Mobility Medium/Light Mobility Capability will all be considered both better management of the overall vehicles. as part of the ancillaries work package. capital plan, and for new capabilities to The Phase One ancillary work The Protected Mobility Capability be introduced at a rate the New Zealand package refects that, while protected project is being run as an integrated Army can assimilate: mobility vehicles will have a life of project with staff from the New • Phase 1: 2018/19 to 2020/21: equip decades, ancillary equipment that may Zealand Defence Force and the Ministry at least a Light Task Group be identifed as a requirement – such as of Defence working full-time in the remote weapon stations and surveillance team.

18 Line of Defence DELIVERING NEW ZEALAND THE EDGE.

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Supacat is part of Group DEFENCE

Rocket Lab’s Peter Beck and the launch of a New Zealand space age In this exclusive Line of Defence interview, editor Nicholas Dynon chats with founder, CEO and CTO of Rocket Lab, Peter Beck, about launching satellites, thinking globally, and flying for business with no meetings planned.

The successful fight of the “Still Testing” Electron rocket from the Mahia Peninsula in January has paved the way for Rocket Lab to begin operational fights of its revolutionary smallsat launcher. It’s the latest chapter in a story that is fast becoming the stuff of New Zealand legend. The Mahia Peninsula site is licensed to launch rockets every 72 hours for 30 years. It’s a frequency that Rocket Lab aims to match by launching small commercial payloads into orbit on dedicated small launch vehicles that are signifcantly lighter and more cost- effective than traditional rocket systems. Electron ‘Its a Test’ at Launch Complex 1. Image courtesy Rocket Lab.

But by putting payloads into orbit, LoD: It’s estimated that Rocket Lab Rocket Lab founder Peter Beck hasn’t and its launch facility will contribute just created a very proftable commercial between $600 million to $1.55 billion venture. He’s blazed a trail that has so to the New Zealand economy over the far resulted in the creation of a New next 20 years. How accurate is this, and Zealand national space agency in 2016, how big can Rocket Lab get? the passing of entirely new set of space legislation in 2017, and – ultimately – PB: Those fgures are from a report the unlikely birth of a New Zealand commissioned by the government. space industry. From our perspective it’s relatively It’s an industry potentially worth conservative, and the opportunity for a billions to the economy. The prospect of space industry in New Zealand outside New Zealand as an international hub for of Rocket Lab is pretty immense. The satellite launches and related specialist space industry last year was worth USD areas, such as satellite design and the 380 billion, so if we’re successful at development of satellite data products, launching with the frequency we aim to has big implications for sectors as diverse be launching, and if the small satellite as agriculture, hazard management, industry continues to gain strength, oceanography, meteorology, then I think it’s a very conservative Peter Beck, CEO and CTO of Rocket Lab communications and defence. number.

20 Line of Defence LoD: Callaghan Innovation and its the Australian Government announced on some of the other things that aren’t predecessor Industrial Research its commitment to a national space so fun, such as a regulatory environment Limited has been a part of Rocket Lab’s agency, and the state of South Australia that enables a very high fight rate, and a journey. How important has Callaghan has created a new space industry centre. privately-owned launch pad as opposed Innovation’s contribution to Rocket Lab There appears to be an interest across to a government-provided launch pad been, and how important is Callaghan the Tasman in doing similar things. and launch services. for New Zealand innovators in general? Where is your competition? Although there are around forty or so companies looking to compete with PB: I worked at IRL as a research PB: It’s great that New Zealand is Rocket Lab, there’s really none that have engineer, and they were very supportive handing it to Australia… that’s a great the complete offering of private launch of what I would call my ‘out of work start! But [seriously], if you look at the pad and regulatory environment and activity’ before I started Rocket Lab, but where the growth sector is within the all the things that we enjoy and have they didn’t technically play any role in industry, in the hardware area it’s around worked so hard to create. Rocket Lab as a business. small satellites. We’ve enjoyed a very strong If you consider the big LoD: I understand that the Outer Space relationship with Callaghan Innovation, geosynchronous birds, their fight rate and High Altitudes Activities Act came and it’s a testament to them for sticking is static if not declining. If you look into force mid-last year, and obviously by us to the point of a successful at small satellites, their growth curve Rocket Lab had been doing its thing for business and a successful industry is exponential. So, the growth rate you some time prior to that. To what extent resulting from their investment. quoted earlier is correct, because you’ve were you part of the building of the I think Callaghan can play a very got some very large multi-billion-dollar New Zealand space bureaucracy and important role although perhaps they’re platforms declining and the rapid rise regulatory regime, and to what extent not seen as such by as many as they could of very affordable multi-million-dollar has that been an advantage? be. But the message I’m always very clear platforms. In certain parts of the on is that if you’re trying to build a large industry the growth is exponential, and PB: The New Zealand Government had successful business then you need to look in certain other parts it’s declining. to create the regulatory environment well past New Zealand – not only for In terms of competition from a to regulate us, and full credit to the market but also investment. Callaghan launch perspective, there are about 40 government and the New Zealand Space is a great supporter, but it’s really up to companies that are trying to compete Agency because the easy thing would businesses to think much bigger and with Rocket Lab. We’re clearly the frst have been to say “no”. But we were able much more globally. to arrive on the market and are enjoying to show a compelling enough case that that frst mover advantage. However, “this was good for New Zealand and LoD: In terms of the international there will be others. could potentially be a very big business” space industry, with growth rates of One of the key aspects of our that the government got in behind it, three times world economic growth, program that’s very different to resourced it well, and made it happen – there’s no doubt a rush to fll that space everybody else’s is that we don’t just and made it happen in a very expedient competitively. In September last year focus on the hardware but we also focus timeframe.

Line of Defence 21 DEFENCE We have been heavily consulted because at the moment we’re the only people being regulated by the Act to any great signifcance. The most important thing to me about the legislation wasn’t so much what was written in the Act but rather the frst few words at the very front of the Act. It doesn’t start off by saying “we’re here to regulate the space industry”, but rather “we’re here to enable the space industry.” I think that’s a very important aspect of the regulations because it distinguishes New Zealand from a lot of other countries. If you look at Australia, for example, those words don’t appear in their legislation at all. It’s all about “how we can regulate it” and not “how Rocket Lab Rutherford engine fred up. Image courtesy Rocket Lab. we can stimulate it.” So, all credit to the New Zealand Space Agency and the LoD: Your customers are likely to come A lot of the problems faced by our previous government for doing that. from what parts of the world. Is it international fsheries, for example, can mainly the US or is there some diversity? be very, very easily solved with spacecraft LoD: Proportionately what industries are and the persistence that space gives you to your customers likely to come from? PB: At the moment it’s primarily the US solve those bigger issues. because that’s the market we’re focused It’s early days, but the knowledge PB: They’re from really quite a wide on, and our headquarters are in the US. base and understanding is growing at a range of industries. We have some Our focus is the US but there’s still a lot vertical rate. We certainly look forward customers that are providing weather happening in Europe and Asia that we’ll to the New Zealand Government satellites, Earth observation is a big look to bring on. utilising some of the assets and space market for us. Communication is access they uniquely have. another big market for us. It ranges quite LoD: Have you had any interest from signifcantly from very large traditional the New Zealand government in terms LoD: Do you have any words of wisdom space players doing very traditional things of utilising your services in the future? for small innovators in New Zealand’s to young start-up companies in Silicon defence industry struggling to get off Valley looking to create a very disruptive PB: I think it’s a bit early for that just yet. frst base with their ideas. business model. We’ve got a fairly even I think that New Zealand as a whole is distribution of these on the manifest for behind what can be done and what is PB: My best advice has always been “get this year and for next. being done with space as an infrastructure. on a plane”, and it’s perfectly fne to get on a plane with no meetings organised. I’ve found that that’s sometimes the most effective thing to do. It’s all about relationships, and unless you build those relationships you’re never going to do any business. Email is certainly easy to communicate with, but it’s a thoroughly ineffective tool. It’s just really important to get on a plane and build those relationships and networks. You’ll have a thousand meetings that are a waste of time, but you’re looking for that one that actually yields results. I can recall having many meetings where I walked out thinking “that was a bit of a waste of time,” but you never know who knows who and who bumps into who. It’s a giant chess game, and in order to play the chess game you need to be Rocket Lab Electron fight ‘Still Testing’ Lift Of. Image courtesy Rocket Lab. out there moving the pieces.

22 Line of Defence

DEFENCE Australia’s defence export strategy: a solid centre wrapped in hyperbole Editor Nicholas Dynon writes that Australia’s recently released Defence Export Strategy is a bold statement of intent to lif the productive capabilities of an industry of critical national importance.

According to new data published Of the fve eyes partners on the A fool’s errand? on 12 March by the Stockholm SIPRI list, Australia is the only one whose A common criticism of the export International Peace Research Institute major arms import rank (6th) is higher strategy is that it is overly ambitious and (SIPRI), the volume of international than its major arms export rank (19th) based on an overblown assessment of transfers of major weapons in 2013- – a glaring statistic that shows up the Australia’s local production. An obvious 17 was 10 percent higher than in underdevelopment of Australia’s defence target is the strategy’s rather lofty ambition 2008-12, continuing the upward trend industry relative to its closest allies. to make Australia a top-ten global defence that began in the early 2000s in the exporter within the next decade. wake of 9/11 and the Global War on Australia’s defence export strategy Writing in The Conversation, Professor Terror. Released on 29 January, Australia’s Greg Austin of the Australian Centre The fve biggest exporters—the Defence Export Strategy identifes several for Cyber Security at UNSW, points out United States, Russia, France, Germany new initiatives aimed at transforming that in the previous SIPRI report (2012 and China—together accounted for 74 the country into a major defence to 2016), “countries near the bottom of percent of all arms exports. exporter. These include a new the list of top 10 exporters (Spain, Italy, Up from 20th place in the previous Australian Defence Export Offce Ukraine and Israel) each had eight times 2012-16 report, Australia was ranked the to work hand-in-hand with Austrade more defence exports by value than world’s 19th largest exporter of major and the Centre for Defence Industry Australia.” A top-ten fnish will require arms with 0.3 percent market share, Capability, and a new Australian a more than eightfold growth within a placing them between Belarus in 18th Defence Export Advocate to provide decade – a most unlikely result by any place and the Czech Republic in 20th. high-level advocacy for defence stretch. By comparison, fve eyes partner US exports and work across industry and Former ADoD deputy secretary claimed frst place, UK 6th place, and government. Fred Bennett in a February letter to Canada 16th, with New Zealand falling An AUD 3.8 billion Defence The Australian pointed to Australian somewhere outside the top 25 exporters Export Facility administered by Efc, manufacturing’s lack of international listed. Australia’s export credit agency, is aimed competitiveness as a fundamental According to the Australian at ensuring Australian companies get stumbling block. “To believe that Department of Defence (ADoD), fnance for exports. The idea is that Australian companies can succeed in this Australia currently achieves in the order the Defence industry will have greater market in the face of the decline of our of AUD 1.5 billion to AUD 2.5 billion confdence to identify and pursue new manufacturing sector under the pressure per year in defence exports, although it export opportunities if they know Efc’s of relatively high energy and labour spends considerably more on defence – support is available when other sources costs, a strong currency and adversarial AUD 24.6 billion annually. of fnance are not. industrial relations is to believe a fairy As an importer of major arms, AUD 20 million per year is also tale,” he wrote. SIPRI ranks Australia 6th, behind India, being made available to implement Australian Strategic Policy Institute Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and China, the Strategy, including AUD 6.35m to (ASPI) director of defence strategy and just ahead of Algeria, Iraq, Pakistan develop and implement strategic multi- Andrew Davies commented in The and Indonesia. It had ranked 7th in the year export campaigns, an additional Guardian that a top 10 rank for 2012-16 report. By comparison, fve AUD 3.2m to enhance and expand the Australia was unlikely “because the eyes partner US was in 14th place, UK Global Supply Chain program, and an things it was good at producing – was in 18th place, and Canada in 66th, additional AUD 4.1m for grants to help component parts for foreign assembly with New Zealand outside the top 40 build the capability of SMEs to compete lines; niche sales of intellectual importers listed. internationally. property, and services (training,

24 Line of Defence consultancy, and acquisition) – were not big money makers.” It’s the big platforms that make the big bucks. Writing in The Interpreter SIPRI researcher Dr Nan Tian comments that sales to Australia’s biggest defence customer the US are dominated by Expeditionary Fast Transports (EPF) manufactured almost entirely by Australian company Austal’s US subsidiary, while Indonesia’s purchases include second- hand C-130s bought new by Australia from Lockheed Martin. “Both examples,” writes Dr Tian, “suggest the majority of Australian arms exports are not based on local production capabilities, but rather on foreign countries’.” A chorus of criticism has also targeted Australia’s record in relation to arms export destinations. According to the SIPRI report, Australia’s second and third biggest customers are Indonesia (28%) and Oman (8.5%). Both countries have dubious human rights records, as have several approved buyers of Australian arms in recent decades. 10 reftted Australian Bushmaster PMVs were sold to the Republic of Fiji Military Forces in 2017. Note: For the purposes of the Strategy, the ‘Australian Defence Industry’ does not include New A worthy endeavor? Zealand suppliers. Image courtesy Australian Government. Criticisms over the audacity of the Strategy’s top-ten target and the “The Government recognises If exports are seen as a hedge optics around many of Australia’s that Australian industry cannot against the uncertainties of domestic arms customers are not out of place. sustain itself on the needs of the demand in the Australian context where Merely chasing numbers – and doing so Australian Defence Force alone,” government spends AUD 24.6 billion with low likelihood of success and at states the Strategy. “New markets and annually, then there are perhaps some potential cost to the nation’s reputation opportunities to diversify are required takeaways for New Zealand here. – seems an unlikely path to success. to help unlock the full potential of As Opposition Spokesperson for According to the critiques, Australian defence industry to grow, Defence Mark Mitchell pointed out in Australia’s defence manufacturers will innovate, and support Defence’s the Summer issue of Line of Defence, be unable to match it with cheaper future needs.” “New Zealand companies make a big international competitors, they are It’s a point not lost on Raytheon investment and carry a bit of risk to focused on producing the wrong things, Australia’s Managing Director Michael support our defence forces. I want and many of the things they have been Ward. In a media release, Mr Ward to see our defence industry grow not credited as making or exporting are commended Canberra’s willingness just in terms of servicing our local more correctly attributable to foreign to identify new ways for the defence defence forces but looking offshore for manufacturers anyway. industry to handle the peaks and troughs opportunities as well.” But that’s sort of the point. The of local demand. “By encouraging “There would need to be initially a Strategy presents an opportunity to new export markets, the industry government-led initiative working with identify areas of comparative advantage will be strengthened and made more industry to bring everyone together to and future growth, and to focus the competitive,” he said. look at what opportunities exist – it’s development of export capabilities on Austal CEO, David Singleton, about a $1.7 trillion pipeline – and to these. agrees, saying “the Australian defence come up with a strategy to bid for and win Quite apart from the numeric goals, industry cannot rely on domestic orders some of this work,” Mr Mitchell added. there is a deeper, more compelling alone; to grow we must be competitive In terms of a government-led objective underpinning the Strategy, and in the international market.” initiative, Canberra has stepped up to it’s about ensuring the sustainability of NSW Minister for Trade and the plate with its Defence Export Strategy. an industry that is critical to Australia’s Industry Niall Blair also welcomed the While Minister Pyne’s grand designs national security within an era of Strategy. “Defence manufacturers, like for a top ten exporter ranking may be increasing strategic complexity and risk any successful companies, need their somewhat far-fetched, the motivators – including potential risks to trade and ambitions to be global,” he stated in a behind the hyperbole are solid and – supply chains. media release. importantly – in the national interest.

Line of Defence 25 DEFENCE

The Kiwi Unicorn in the Hyatt Canberra: NZDIA attends ADM Congress 2018

NZDIA CEO Jennie Vickers writes that Australia’s Defence market presents massive opportunities but also risks for suppliers within New Zealand’s defence industry. How do we chart a course for success while avoiding the potential pitfalls?

Mid-February sees the annual gathering NZDIA was in Canberra on Australian Industry capability of Australian industry, defence and a mission with NZTE, both fact involvement in major projects over Government to talk about the near and fnding and looking at next steps AUD 20 million. far projects in the Australian defence following the Australian market Hon Christopher Pyne, Australian realm. opportunity initiatives of 2017. The Minister for Defence Industry, spoke This year was no different, with frst being the extremely successful both at the ADM Opening Function standing room only and, we suspect, presentation by RADM Tony Dalton and again at the AIDN National Dinner. a record number of delegates. Hardly at the October 2017 NZDIA Forum Speaking at the dinner, Mr Pyne said a surprising with projected spend with in Wellington, and then the NZDIA/ number of things of relevance for both industry, of over 200 billion Australian NZTE Australian Department of Australian and New Zealand industry: dollars over the next decade. Defence Industry Briefng on the naval “This is going to be a great year for shipbuilding endeavour in Auckland in Australia, Australians and those working December. in and around this great defence As the presentations rolled out industry,” he said. during the day in Canberra, it was easy “I’ll outline shortly what you to become blasé about multi-billion might expect for defence industry as dollar spends, such is the magnitude of this year unfolds and how, as a matter opportunity on the Australian horizon. of fundamental importance to the Whether your focus is on Primes or Turnbull Government, we intend to put SMEs there is clearly plenty for all. Australian industry, particularly small to However, for the Kiwis in the room medium industry, at the greatest possible who I spoke to, what was striking on advantage.” that day was the almost total absence Back to the ADM congress, and of the words “New Zealand” in the as we read the speeches and the presentations. This is both a bad thing commentaries on the presentations, we and a good thing! are able to – and should – read every At the NZDIA Forum in October, reference to opportunities, help and Mark Purcell (RADM Rtd) reminded assistance for Australian SMEs as a us of the framework under which reference in fact to ‘Australian and New New Zealand companies with fewer Zealand SMEs’. than 200 employees performing This does beg the question as to work in New Zealand count as SMEs why – when the speakers talked about in Australia, thanks to the Closer opportunities for industry – did no one Economic Relationship which is now mention New Zealand? Was it because over 30 years old. This framework it is obvious that our businesses are is coupled with the 2015 Australian included? Because the focus was on the Defence Industry Policy Statement and majority local audience? Or because NZDIA CEO, Jennie Vickers. its requirements around strengthening Australian Industry and International

26 Line of Defence Hon Chris Pyne, Australian Minister for Defence Industry.

Primes had not, until recently, factored We are in discussion with Primes, Australian industry might grab our our production and services into their Defence and Australian Industry people instead. That is bad for industry equations? Maybe we have had 30+ bodies about opportunities for more and bad for NZDF and MOD. years accepting CER as a fact of doing presentations and engagement here. On the positive side there are plenty business and stopped looking for new Talking to training providers about what of people, Government departments, areas to apply it. is available to support our businesses, universities and companies in New If the presentations in Canberra were working with NZTE to add a defence Zealand looking at the issue of future anything to go by, the rivalry between context to their training and will in proofng our workforce, so together we Australian States was hotting up as the April be talking to as many members as should be able to make this work for us Australian Government edged closer to possible about their level of interest and and not against us. announcing the Land 400 winners. their needs. And why the Unicorn? Back in It was fascinating to see politicians Organisations wanting to be part of 2013, venture capitalist Aileen Lee advocating so strongly for the merits the capacity/capability team could of used the phrase ‘Unicorn’ for a start-up of industry in their own neck of the course get the ball rolling for themselves company valued at over $1 billion. The woods. New Zealand will hopefully be by identifying which Australian projects mythical animal was chosen to represent able to back every global industry horse they have the closest nexus with and the statistical rarity of such successful in the platform races by not taking sides start gathering their thoughts on ventures. With AUD 200 billion in the but still be positioned as the provider their specifc solutions to the specifc Australian wallet (NZD 215 billion), of additional capacity and innovative identifed platforms. attracting just 0.5 percent of this in New capability. Wise counsel reminds me on Zealand’s direction will see the defence Over the next few months NZDIA a regular basis that with great industry being the Unicorn delivering Members will start to see the next opportunities come threats. While the for NZ Inc. steps in helping New Zealand industry opportunities for New Zealand industry That’s a lot of jobs and a lot of gear up to take advantage of these in delivering capability to Australia are prosperity that can be funded with opportunities. We started with the amazing there is a looming people risk. Australian public money – and that Maritime domain in December, but air If New Zealand industry does not step has to be a good thing… not a mythical and land domains are in the mix. up and grab some of these chances, dream.

Line of Defence 27 DEFENCE

Enhancing cybersecurity through talent management

Nick Nelson, senior lecturer at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, argues that maintaining cybersecurity includes both technological as well as human factors – this means that recruiting and retaining the ‘right’ people can make all the diference.

Cyber incidents have been increasing and the 2017 Equifax hack that revealed Indeed, all of the incidents in frequency, impact and complexity the personal information of more than mentioned in the preceding paragraphs in recent years and although there is 145 million Americans, are just two of occurred, at least in part, as a considerable variability in the estimated numerous recent examples. consequence of human factors. For this impacts of these, a 2018 report by the Within the security sector, as well reason, it is important to recognise that RAND Corporation estimates that as impacting the bottom line and maintaining cybersecurity includes both cyber-crime costs up to USD 6.6 trillion sustainability of an organisation, cyber technological as well as human factors, globally per annum. This equates to 32 incidents can also threaten national with the human aspect as important as percent of global GDP. security. The 2015 cyber-attack on the the technological. In addition to the fnancial costs, US Offce of Personnel Management Recognising that a secure network cyber incidents can also have profound compromised the data of more than is the result of a larger system that effects on customer trust, further 18 million federal employees, including includes technological and human impacting the bottom line and even those within the intelligence community, factors, fnding the ‘right’ people to sustainability of an organisation. The and provided a treasure trove of work in the cybersecurity environment 2014 Sony hacks, which resulted in a information that will, according to must be afforded a high priority. loss of more than USD 200 million, former CIA Director Michael Hayden, However, in the current environment, threaten national security for decades to fnding the ‘right’ people is a key come. problem, and one which applies to both In the public sector, hackers have the public and private sector. also accessed designs for more than 24 This problem is highlighted by the major US weapons systems including comments of former NSA Director of the F35 and F22 stealth fghters, Information Assurance, and now NSA advanced communications technologies, ‘talent scout’ Richard George, who the RC 135 spy plane and the Aegis stated that when it comes to getting the antimissile system. The loss of this data right talent “it’s a very, very small pool will, similarly, have a profound impact and there are a lot of people hiring from on national security for a long time to it”. come. A report by the Joint Task Force There have been spectacular gains on Cybersecurity Education reinforces in the enhancement of cybersecurity George’s comment, stating that current via the development of technically global cybersecurity workforce demand secure protocols. While these go some is acute, immediate, and growing. By considerable way to overcoming the 2020, it projects that more than 1.5 threats posed in the cyber environment, million cybersecurity related positions all of these technical measures can be will be unable to be flled. Meeting this undone at the click of a mouse, through challenge, however, is not merely one of some savvy social engineering, or as raw numbers, it’s also about talent. a consequence of a variety of other While the cybersecurity industry Nick Nelson, senior lecturer at Massey human activities by any of the more has yet to adopt a commonly accepted University’s Centre for Defence and Security than four billion people that have access lexicon through which to describe Studies to the internet today. cybersecurity jobs, the 2012 National

28 Line of Defence Initiative for Cybersecurity Education represent stable, trait-like individual would also beneft from an ability to (NICE) framework goes some way differences that, in turn, infuence the understand how elements within a towards achieving this and, in doing so, development of proximal, malleable system work, how they change over allows effective talent identifcation and characteristics. time, and how they impact on other management to occur. Combined, these distal and parts of the system. In this sense, Within the NICE framework, types proximal attributes infuence on-the-job systems thinking is an important of cyber work are grouped into various behaviour and, thus, job performance. cognitive attribute for cybersecurity categories and specialty areas, each of While a comprehensive discussion of personnel. which has a list of requisite knowledge, each of the components of this model Although the cognitive domain skills, abilities and other attributes is beyond the scope of this article, a plays an important role in cyber (KSAO). The NICE framework brief overview is provided. security personnel success, so too does synthesises these various KSAO to Given the signifcant complexity and personality. Using the well-known produce a set of unique overarching abstract nature of the KSAO required to ‘Big Five’ personality dimensions, workload and workforce requirements be an expert in cybersecurity, cognitive conscientiousness and openness have for cyber-security personnel. ability – that is the ability to reason, been shown to be the most relevant to These have been further synthesised plan, and solve problems – is considered effective cybersecurity performance. to develop a multistage model that vital. Further, the ability to do this in Individuals high in conscientiousness are provides guidance on the attributes an environment that is dynamic and generally well-organised and effcient, on which organisations should focus characterised by emerging and novel with excellent attention to detail which, their selection and/or training efforts information means that fuid intelligence with a few exceptions, has been shown to ensure the effective performance of and cognitive fexibility are essential to be important in effective cyber work. cyber-security personnel. attributes. Given that the cyber environment This model takes into account a From a cognitive perspective, the involves developing knowledge to make variety of individual differences and complex and interrelated structure of understanding of what is often a rapidly places them along a distal-proximal a cybersecurity system suggests that changing environment, openness, which continuum. The distal attributes those who work in that environment includes a variety of components, most

Multistage Model of Cyber Security Personnel Performance

• Technical Skills • Cognitive • Problem Solving Effective Cyber Distal Proximal Security • Motivation Skill Performance Attributes Attributes Personnel • Personality • Social Skills Performance

Line of Defence 29

DEFENCE

importantly to the cyber environment problem solving skills, which must use in selection procedures. Similarly, that of intellectual curiosity, has been be taught. Without these, it would be as the proximal attributes are the more shown to be invaluable as it has been highly unlikely that an individual could malleable knowledge and skills required linked to both a desire to continue to successfully work their way through for effective performance, these are acquire knowledge as well as a creativity the complexities of a cybersecurity most effectively used for developing to ‘think outside of the box’ when system and develop actions to overcome training interventions although they do solving problems. problems. have utility in the selection processes as Unsurprisingly, individual Social skills, particularly those well. motivations, specifcally the need for of communication and situational The current global labour market, achievement, ie. the drive to achieve awareness, have also been found to where the demand for cybersecurity goals, and the need for cognition – or be important predictors of effective talent far exceeds the supply, the extent to which individuals seek out cybersecurity performance. While necessitates an emphasis on fnding and challenging cognitive activities – have at a superfcial level this may come developing the ‘right’ people, and this both been found to impact on the as a surprise, it has been found to model is an important component in success of cybersecurity personnel. be important as a consequence of achieving that. To further enhance this, In addition to the stable, trait- the fact that a signifcant amount of consideration also needs to be given like individual differences described cybersecurity work requires social to the range of attributes required above, there are a number of proximal interaction both within and between beyond the individual level given attributes, ie. more malleable skills and often interdisciplinary teams. that cybersecurity work is frequently knowledge, which provide the critical The distal and proximal attributes undertaken in a multi-level and multi- link between the distal attributes and discussed in this article are, of course, team environment. performance. driven by the performance requirements In addition, given the often heavy The frst of these, technical as well as the tasks necessary for cognitive, emotional and social demands knowledge, specifcally expertise in a successful performance in a specifc of even routine cybersecurity work, number of technical areas (variable position within the cybersecurity as well as the often unconventional by position) is important but hardly environment. They also provide a useful individuals that excel in this feld, surprising. Of note, however, is that model on which to base selection and consideration needs to be given to the acquisition of technical expertise is training programmes. ensuring the ‘right’ people – once they largely driven by a combination of both Given that the distal attributes are have been found – are retained. This is distal attributes and contextual factors. inherent within an individual, and as a particularly challenging task and one While cognitive ability is important, such are unable to be easily trained, that contemporary organisations are still so too are a variety of higher order these attributes are most appropriate for coming to grips with.

30 Line of Defence Climate change presents multiple challenges for NZDF

Dr Egemen Bezci, Visiting Scholar at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, argues that addressing climate change poses massive challenges for the NZDF, not least climate change’s threat-multiplier efect.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern identifed This creates an intertemporal Providing relief missions will require climate change as a top priority for challenge for politicians who aim to increased rapid deployment capabilities her government’s foreign and security tackle the problem as the cost of climate and an effective coordination with policy agenda during her 27 February change policy raises costs for the current local authorities and other bodies such New Zealand Institute for International electorate and takes resources away from as the Ministry of Civil Defence and Affairs speech. projects valuable to stakeholders and Emergency Management. The coalition government’s elected offcials. Although the NZDF’s determination to address climate change Alan Jacobs and J Scott Matthews Humanitarian Assistance and is likely to present two major challenges identify in their research that “citizens’ Disaster Relief guidelines are already to the New Zealand Defence Force: (i) bias in favour of short-term policy comprehensive, future pressure on the how to deal with changing civil-military benefts arises in part because they do coordination of these missions may relations; and (ii) how to address the not fnd the promise of long-delayed prove overwhelming due to a climate threat-multiplier effect of climate policy rewards to be credible.” The change-induced rise in the frequency change. problem of mismatch between electoral of natural disasters. terms and time-spans for long-term Short-sighted on the long-term policy implementation creates challenges Climate change consequences When elected politicians aim to address for even the most benevolent politician. The NZDF will also need to tackle a problem requiring a long-term It is still unknown whether the the threat-multiplier effects of climate commitment, they face a fundamental Beehive will be able to allocate the change. A text book example of such restriction because of the length of substantial resources the NZDF needs an effect was seen in the instability their electoral term. Climate change is for tackling the security threats of afficting the Middle East before and a long-term policy problem that will climate change. It is possible short-time after the Arab Spring due to years of require policy implementation over electoral politics will triumph. drought and food insecurity. several generations. If resourcing to the NZDF suffers Violent conficts are more likely because of short-term politicking, but when food security lowers, which a precedent is set for the NZDF to deal aggravates social grievances and with climate change-related security increases recruitment opportunities for issues, this will likely to create turbulence illicit groups such as criminal or terror in New Zealand’s civil-military relations. networks. Criminal networks in the Pacifc are already a concern for New Responding to more disasters Zealand, and climate change will likely Pacifc nations are particularly prone increase their outreach and scope. The to natural disasters. New Zealand’s NZDF will need to help build its Pacifc 2016 Defence White Paper accordingly neighbours’ capacities to ensure regional highlights the NZDF’s responsibilities in security is not undermined. the wake of “environmental challenges” Climate change is already a national in the Pacifc region. security concern for numerous countries Climate change triggers extreme globally. Some, like Norway, as well events on the scale of natural disasters. As as collective security organisations Dr Chad Briggs of Air University (USAF) like NATO, are already dedicating Dr. Egemen Bezci is a visiting scholar at points out, “effective risk assessments substantial resources to dealing with this Massey University’s Centre for Defence and and planning will require understanding threat. As our government attempts to Security Studies. He is a Visiting Lecturer in of how climate change will affect natural achieve a comprehensive and realistic the Politics and Security Programme at OSCE disasters and disaster response, and how strategic outlook, the NZDF will face Academy, Bishkek, and was recently Swedish hazards may be more extreme or unique new challenges and best not be caught Institute Fellow at Stockholm University from past experiences.” unprepared. during 2016-2017.

Line of Defence 31 DEFENCE

Towards an efective joint force: The Joint Support Component Command

Dr Colin D Robinson, Visiting Scholar at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, charts the evolution towards an NZDF Joint Support Component Command. It’s an unfolding journey, he writes, requiring both structural and cultural change.

During the 1990s, key New Zealand allies began to tasked to provide bulk ammunition support to all three modernise their command and control arrangements to services. The opportunity was also taken to reduce the refect changing post-Cold War circumstances. The UK was number of ammunition depots, with the closing of the frst, with Permanent Joint Headquarters being established in naval ammunition depot at Whangaparoa, which had stored 1994. RNZAF heavy munitions, and a “signifcant change” at the As opposed to only three single-service operational former Naval Armament Depot at Kauri Point. commands, land, sea, and air, PJHQ took on worldwide A year later, GPCAPT Adrian Collins, leading LC (Air) responsibilities, but had no raise-train-and-maintain function. commented in Air Force News, “We have really only dipped It had to receive forces from the single-service operational a toe in the water of possibilities for future synergies, better commands to carry out its missions. relationships and shared work activities. It bodes well for the Later, for varying reasons, Australia in 1997 with future.” Taking these opportunities forward was the Defence Headquarters Australian Theatre (COMAST) and New Transformation Programme, envisaged to a great degree by Zealand in 2001 with Headquarters Joint Forces New LTGEN Rhys Jones as Chief of Defence Force. Zealand (HQ JFNZ) were created, to command and manage Further integration of garrison logistics functions took the operations of the two defence forces. place under what became Defence Shared Services (DSS). But Logistical support constraints also began to be what also became possible, again because of New Zealand’s considered. In 1999-2000, the frst mention occurs small scale, was the creation of a joint operational logistics of a “newly created Joint Force Logistics Component commander. Economies of scale met the diminishing size Commander” for the British armed forces. For larger and resources of the Defence Force in a fashion that led to deployments, the UK could deploy forces from the three further rationalisation and reduction of personnel. service commands under PJHQ. To ensure essential A brigadier or colonel’s position was considered for the logistical services were maintained, the Joint Force Logistics control various enabling units, such as the Military Police. Component Commander would also manage the fow of But what actually eventuated after further staff discussion supplies from the UK to an overseas base and into the theatre was an operational logistics command. of operations. The Joint Support Enablers Project sought to integrate New Zealand moved forward on joint integration on single service logistics functions where the opportunity the garrison logistics side with the creation of the Defence existed and where there was suffcient commonality Logistics Command in July 2010, comprising Logistics that would enable effciencies to be achieved without Commands for Maritime, Land, Air and Common Lines. The compromising single-service specialisations. The new Joint Joint Common Systems Group was formed on 30 June 2010, Support Component Command was to oversee the Defence a day before the command was established. Munitions Management Group, the Joint Operational By 2016-17 the Common Systems Group was Health Group, the Common Systems Group and the Joint administering the operational support contracts including Movements and Joint Fuels projects. hospitality/food, fuel, and freight (including worldwide As of early 2016, NZDF thinking envisaged that the courier delivery of time-critical items). Defence Joint Fuels Group, the Joint Movements Group, The Defence Munitions Management Group was Joint Supply Group and Joint Maintenance Repair and established on 14 December 2010, with the army Overhaul (MRO) would probably join the JSCC over the next ammunition area in Waiouru joining DMMG and re- fve years to 2021. Whether or not to incorporate the NZDF

32 Line of Defence Military Police into the JSCC is still being considered. As of late 2016, a delay of at least twelve months had been agreed upon. COL Ruth Putze was appointed to the new post of Joint Support Component Commander on 5 May 2016, and the organisation was established on 1 July 2016.

Recruitment challenges In what Narcís Serra describes as a change from an institutional to occupational model (ie. perceiving the military as an ‘occupation’ within the broader labour market as opposed to an ‘institution’ providing a higher vocation Solutions for distinct from non-military jobs), refecting changes in societal attitudes, the ability of the NZDF to recruit and retain obsolete electronics highly qualifed medical personnel has slowly yet signifcantly decreased. During the Cold War, feld hospitals and feld ambulances had been for decades an integral part of the army’s structure. But nurses and especially doctors were increasingly attracted by higher civilian salaries, and lower demands than placed upon them by military service. When the Field Surgical Team was deployed to East Timor from 1999-2000, it had to be supplemented by Civilian Health Volunteers. At that time the chief army deployable health unit was 2 Field Hospital. This unit gained a more infantry orientation with the arrival of LTCOL Evan Williams RNZIR as Commanding Offcer in the mid-2000s. He retitled the unit 2 Health Services Battalion (2 HSB), following a similar Australian move that had taken place fve years before. A later Commanding Offcer, LTCOL Bill Twiss, was to lead the reorganisation of 2 HSB into the Joint Operational Health Group. Established in December 2015, the JOHG initially had garrison health, training, and operational sub-units. After considering the preferred options and gaining approval from the three single services, this process has led to medics from one service to fll gaps in another service’s operational deployment. In-country support for This successful transfer of personnel across service boundaries flled existing gaps, meeting the intent of the suppliers to NZ Defence amalgamation. While a Role 2 surgical capability has been maintained within the JOHG, recruiting and retaining medical personnel is “very challenging”. In relation to movements, the NZ Army has maintained 5 Movements Company within 2 Combat Service Support Battalion (previously 2 Logs Regt) for two decades at least, but personnel shortages, scarce skills, and opportunities for joint economies of scale are driving the case for further integration. The Joint Movements Project was initiated in early 2017, and consideration of alternatives is progressing. While there was initial agreement to move forward on a Joint Fuels Project, and a Defence Joint Fuels Group was envisaged, this process moved more slowly than most. There was no agreement reached on how to move forward, and then the civilian project manager left the NZDF. Resources play a part; fve staff were allocated to the Joint Movements Project while only a single staff member could be spared for Joint Fuels. As a result, the project has been ‘parked’ – paused with no clear path forward decided at present. [email protected]

Line of Defence 33 DEFENCE

Personnel arrive by USAF C-17 at Timaru Airport during Ex Southern Katipo 2013 Lessons from the process have been Executive Offcer (wing commander) majors-equivalent, which will allow manifold. Some functions, according and a civilian chief of staff, getting planning, a ready Joint Reconnaissance to COL Putze, simply do not properly the organisation functioning workably Team to deploy to evaluate any short- ‘sit’ with the Joint Support Command. in a reasonable timescale has seen notice contingency and solidify Neither garrison catering (hospitality) diffculties at times. consistency and process. nor, from some angles, garrison This has not been helped by the The Joint Support Component health, match the operational focus inevitability of the NZDF’s postings Command represents more progress of the organisation. In the future, the cycle; all of the lieutenant colonel towards an effective joint force, garrison catering contract responsibility equivalent personnel in the organisation and NZ’s small size has allowed (business ownership) may in time be rotated over Christmas-New Year 2017- economies of scale unlikely elsewhere. considered for a shift back to Defence 2018. COL Putze has had to train up an Consolidating the new organisation Logistics Command, where it would entirely new team. and embedding the necessary cultural more properly reside. One clear and unexpected changes within the minds of NZDF Much more important has been opportunity has been the creation personnel are the most important an enduring challenge: military of a Joint Support Task Group to priorities for the near future. forces are socially conservative support large-scale NZDF operational institutions. Simply reshuffing the deployments and a Joint National organisation chart does not make Support Element (JNSE). NZDF people fully understand that Since 2011 the NZDF has been seizing opportunities to consolidate slowly building its ability to deliver operational support activities is forces from the sea, towards a Joint worthwhile and important to maximise Amphibious Task Force goal. As resources for the future. deployed force sizes grow towards In some cases, it has taken repeated brigade level, this demands logistics reminding that the NZDF will not elements on the scale of a battalion. go back to single-service operational Though augmented by other units, support. Personnel have to accept that the Army’s 2 CSSB was somewhat the evolution is here to stay. stretched by the large-scale Exercise Creating the organisation has been Southern Katipo 2013. Consolidating only one part of the process. Creating support activities across the services and embedding the Standard Operating clearly has the potential to ease this kind Procedures and other processes is the of strain. As a result, a Joint Support actual instrument that will make the Task Group was identifed by COL NZDF carry out these activities in a Putze as a useful potential innovation. joint fashion, as opposed to the old The JSTG concept was successfully Dr Colin Robinson is a Visiting Scholar at the processes in offces with new signboards. tested on the 2017 iteration of Southern Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University. Dr Robinson has worked The lack of a dedicated project Katipo, held in October-November for the New Zealand Ministry of Defence team to implement the JSCC has been 2017. A permanent JNSE headquarters and NZ Army. His most recent New Zealand particularly hard felt here. With only core has also been put in place with one Defence work was with Headquarters Joint a single colonel as commander, an lieutenant colonel equivalent and three Forces New Zealand (2012-15).

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Does New Zealand have to choose between China and the United States Former Defence Minister Wayne Mapp forecasts that New Zealand will continue to deepen its relationship with China, and that it may diverge from Australia as it seeks to rebalance with China and the United States.

The burglaries of Canterbury Prime Minister’s speech to the New They will bind New Zealand for many University Professor Anne-Marie Zealand Institute of International Affairs. years to come. Brady’s home and offce prompted Under a heading of “Friends”, she listed In contrast, the relationship that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to four countries only and in a very specifc New Zealand has with China has been ask the intelligence agencies to look order: Australia, the United States, the largely transactional. The increasing into who might be behind it. Given United Kingdom and China. Australia depth of the economic linkages, that all indicators show that Chinese was noted as the only ally. including immigration, are adding a new intelligence is the most likely culprit, The relationship with the United dimension to the relationship. It has this was an unusual move. The States was also seen as “fundamental”, an enduring look about it. But for the Prime Minister making such a public but without any specifc reference to moment there is almost no interaction announcement about the matter will defence and security issues. Rather in the security sphere. not have endeared her to China. the reference was to the “size and Will this remain the case over the A more fully thought through dynamism” of its economy. In respect next three decades? construct of ideas was set out in the to China, the reference was also to the China now has nearly the GDP of economy and trade. In both cases she the United States and is expected to emphasised the areas of difference equal it within the next ten years. But it between New Zealand and the two will not have equaled the sophistication larger countries. of the US economy. It will still lag Does this indicate that New Zealand in terms of services and advanced is subtly signaling a change in how it technologies. But it is self-evident that views its relationship with the great this gap is closing, and by 2030 China powers of the Asia Pacifc, one that will might have largely closed it. have greater balance between China and The differences in military capability the United States? will last longer. For instance, it will be It is logical to think so, since it at least two or more decades before refects the changing balance of power. China can build aircraft carriers equal United States pre-eminence is built to the United States Ford class carriers. upon events of nearly 80 years ago. Similarly, Chinese stealth fghters are Since then the power of the US has still some decades behind those of the been eroded, especially in the last 20 United States. years. Nevertheless, the US has been, Nevertheless, within 30 years the gap and remains the key guarantor of Asia will be much less than at present. Within Pacifc stability. East Asia and along the littoral margins, New Zealand is part of the US- China may in fact have more military led security framework, these days capability than the US. This will be of Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science most notably through the Five Eyes major concern to Japan, and perhaps and Innovation from 2008 to 2011. He intelligence sharing arrangements. These South Korea. In particular Japan will was appointed to the New Zealand Law arrangements are based on values as ensure that it keeps a technological edge Commission in February 2012. much as economic and military power. so as to render it a very tough nut.

36 Line of Defence Military and economic power are Convention on the Law of the Seas and challenging task. There are likely to be not just important in war, they affect the won, has nevertheless negotiated the more occasions in the future where New whole tenor of international relations. issue with China. New Zealand has done Zealand will have to make choices on At the minimum, China will expect that little more than express the view that it diffcult issues. Sitting on the sidelines Asia Pacifc nations will take its concerns expects the matters with be resolved in may not always be possible, though more seriously. This is not the same as accordance with international law. New Zealand will endeavor to make that expecting nations to switch sides. Over a thirty-year period, New choice whenever it is possible. As a longstanding liberal democracy, Zealand governments will come and What about the situations where New Zealand will not be allying itself go. But if the pattern of the last sitting on the sidelines is not possible? with a one-party state. Similarly, there is twenty years continues, New Zealand Such situations should only arise in insuffcient history that would give New will continue to build and deepen its extremis, and there are likely to be two Zealand any sense that China could act relationship with China, irrespective of critical factors dictating the choice. as a security guarantor. This role will who leads the government. What would a values-based approach continue to be flled by the US. But New The last National government was indicate, and what is our one ally, Zealand will be in the outer orbit. As the among the frst OECD governments Australia, doing? Students of realpolitik Prime Minister’s speech reminded us, to embrace China’s Belt and Road would emphasise the latter. the United States is no longer an ally. initiative, although Winston Peters, the New Zealand has shown in the The decisions to be made by New new Foreign Minister has expressed past that it is quite capable of taking Zealand’s political leaders are unlikely to skepticism that New Zealand should a different direction to Australia, even be as stark as war and peace. Rather they have been so enthusiastic. It is also when that puts signifcant strain on the will be matters in the broader security worth recalling that Helen Clark’s Trans-Tasman relationship. The nuclear- arena where New Zealand will prefer Labour government was the frst among free issue and the consequent disruption the argument of one state or the other, developed nations to sign a free trade of ANZUS being the most prominent. rather than simply deciding on the basis agreement with China. Such situations are likely to occur in of security relationships. In that case, at This has all been done without any the future as well. They key question is least within the littoral margins of Asia, real impact on the relationship with the whether New Zealand would be willing China will make gains, provided they are United States. In fact, the last National to jeopardise the core foundations of not overtly aggressive. government took considerable steps to the Trans-Tasman relationship. The South China Sea issues forecast strengthen the US relationship. New Zealand is unlikely to do so the likely changes of attitude. The It is unlikely, however, that the as a matter of formal policy choice. enormous build up by China in the Jacinda Ardern-led administration will But such an outcome might occur by South China Sea with the construction take any further steps to enhance the US inadvertence if New Zealand had made of airbases and harbours on reefs relationship. In fact, it is likely that the a series of foreign policy choices about claimed by China has been able to take US relationship will become less close. its relationship with China and the US place with virtually no serious adverse Jacinda Ardern’s speech to the Institute that effectively imperiled the Trans- reaction. indicated that New Zealand will be Tasman relationship. One should expect The Philippines, which had seeking balance. that this prospect is likely to increase commenced arbitral proceedings As China’s power increases over the within the next thirty years as the pursuant to the United Nations next few years, this could prove to be a balance of power shifts.

Line of Defence 37 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Small state syndrome: can New Zealand balance the US & China? In this exclusive Line of Defence interview, editor Nicholas Dynon talks with Dr Reuben Stef, lecturer in International Relations and Global Security at the University of Waikato, about the implications for New Zealand of a decline in US-China relations.

Dr Reuben Steff and doctoral candidate Is continuing to steer a middle path dependent on the norms that govern Francesca Dodd-Parr recently released between Beijing and Washington feasible interstate relations at any one time. fndings from their survey of New when New Zealand is economically At one end, small states pursue a Zealand’s strategic studies community on dependent on one and security- limited foreign policy that predominantly NZ’s relations with the US and China. dependent on the other? Or, as one focuses on maximising their security, Respondents were asked to assess the respondent put it, is this approach usually by emphasising their economic state of relations between NZ, the US “akin to straddling a barbed wire fence interests, territorial sovereignty and by and China, the expected future state of while standing on ice blocks”? What seeking ‘shelter’ under the umbrella relations, and to provide their views on alternative strategies of alignment might of powerful states (usually through aspects of the three states’ bilateral and be considered by the New Zealand an alliance or less formal but de facto triangular relations. government? security alignment). The majority of responses predict a In another paper published in the In the literature, this approach has decline in relations between Beijing and Pacifc Review in January, Dr Steff writes been adopted throughout long periods Washington over the coming decade, that small states throughout the Asia- of history where norms of international with one-third of respondents believing Pacifc are confronted by a growing behavior did not prevent larger states a ‘major crisis’ is likely between the US dilemma over how to balance their from threatening or physically coercing and China (it’s worth noting that the traditional security ties with the US and small states to the same degree that they survey was conducted prior to the 2016 rapidly growing trade with China. This do today. In a threatening world, small US election). What, asks Dr Steff, are the gives Washington and Beijing potential states have less leeway for foreign policy implications of this for New Zealand’s leverage over small states to use within experimentation. foreign policy? their competition with one another. At the other end of the spectrum, He explains that New Zealand, as a small states (like New Zealand) still seek small state, has adopted a mixed set of to guarantee their core national interests strategies to manage its position between (trade, territorial sovereignty, alignments the US and China, closely aligning with friends/allies etc), but the liberal itself with Washington while remaining norms of international behaviour that nonaligned on some key security issues spread after World War II (especially in the Asia-Pacifc region. Wellington throughout the extended Western has certainly not opted for neutrality, security alliances) provided greater he observes, and its much-vaunted security assurance for small states. ‘independent’ foreign policy is open to This, in combination with the question. acceleration of globalisation (increased economic/security interdependence ND: In relation to the literature on small and more channels for international states, you stated that some authors engagement) in the 1980s enabled small contend that relative weakness implores states to expand the focus of their small states to be cautious and defensive, foreign policies beyond narrow pursuit while more recent analyses suggest that of their national interests and adopt small states can adopt proactive multi- ‘multi-vector’ foreign policies. vector foreign policies to pursue their This involves promoting common interests. What do you mean by ‘multi- rules in international and regional Dr Reuben Stef is a lecturer of International vector foreign policies’? institutions, efforts to protect the global Relations and Global Security at the commons (‘global interests’), and support University of Waikato. His latest book, co- RS: We can think of the overarching for humanitarian concerns abroad authored with Dr Nicholas Khoo, is Security set of strategies small states pursue that, in earlier historical eras of greater at a Price: The International Politics of US Ballistic Missile Defense (Rowman & through their foreign policies as sitting threat, would have been considered an Littlefield, November 2017). somewhere on a continuum, and indulgence.

38 Line of Defence ND: You’ve stated that most NZ great Asia-Pacifc powers, namely China culture and values interact with power commentators do not adopt “the worst- and the US. President Trump’s tough talk (the opportunities afforded to states by case view of some realists in the US that on China during the 2016 US election their material capabilities), sometimes an intense regional confict is inevitable. campaign is now being translated into leading states to use their power to Instead, they hold that Wellington will policy, with the US designating China defend, secure and advance their values, probably not be forced to ‘pick a side’ a ‘strategic competitor’ in its recent sometimes by actually restraining them. in the near future between Beijing and National Security Strategy. Practical steps There is both a defensive and Washington.” How representative do by the White House against China on offensive impulse embedded in values. you think this is of the positions of New trade are now being taken (which is also Thus, the degree to which Beijing’s values Zealand’s international relations/strategic stimulated by Trump’s need to appease and rising power place it at odds with studies academics? his domestic political base). New Zealand and the broader Western Great power competition is back, world, and whether this will lead to RS: I believe most New Zealand and this could have implications for New escalating tensions and, at worst, even academics share this view. It is based upon Zealand’s trading relationship with China forms of confrontation, is hard to judge. research I conducted in late 2016 into the given our close security ties to the US. To answer the second part of the existing scholarly literature on this issue In this context, economic diversifcation question, I’ll give an academic answer and from a written survey of members makes even more sense for New Zealand. and say yes and no. Yes, New Zealand of the New Zealand strategic studies Even at the best of times, New probably has less to fear by pursuing a community. That said there were a couple Zealand should be trying to diversify its franker rapport with China since we pose of dissenting responses to this view by trading partners in order to hedge our practically no threat to Beijing, which respondents who believed New Zealand bets against disruption. This increases our views New Zealand as a fair-minded would eventually have to pick a side. options should any – or a number – of partner to engage with and a test case to I would also add that a number our key trading partners suffer a domestic assess whether developing free trade ties of other states are in this position economic downturn or one powerful state with Western states is in its interests. throughout the Asia-Pacifc region and threatens or tries to blockade the coast However, on the other side of have been more outspoken on the issue. of another during a severe crisis (cutting things, New Zealand cannot escape the For example, Singaporean Prime Minister it off from sea-borne trading routes and fundamentals of its position as a small Lee Hsien Loong has stated, “If there are New Zealand’s products). state and one that has scant material tensions between America and China, we It can also position us to take capabilities with which to resist pressure will be asked to pick a side.” advantage of emerging economies in far- from larger stares. Therefore, even if My personal sense is that although fung territories that could be the regional there is seemingly little risk to New New Zealand’s geographic distance economic powerhouses of the future. Zealand of being less muted over values, may provide us with more fexibility Ensuring we have as near to a ‘frst- New Zealand offcials may judge any risk than other states in the region (such as mover’ advantage in promising regions is too large to run given the potential Singapore), we should not assume with (such as sub-Saharan Africa) could prove consequences to our trading ties. absolute confdence that New Zealand critical to whether our companies can Another possibility would be for will not be ‘asked’ by one or the other succeed in these markets. China to ‘punish’ a small state (like New to pick a side during a crisis or over Zealand) that speaks out on values by specifc security issues in the Asia-Pacifc ND: If ideologies defned the reducing or interfering with trade in region, especially if US-Chinese relations international security and great power order to send a message to larger trading deteriorate in the years to come. rivalry context of the later 20th century, partners that they could be next. In this culture and values so far appear to be scenario, New Zealand would be a victim ND: You’ve suggested that there are defning the international security context of a much larger game. mixed opinions over whether the of the 21st century. Beijing’s values place Ultimately, If New Zealand wants hypothetical scenario of an interruption China essentially at odds with the West, to have a more ‘frank rapport’ with to China-NZ two-way trade would including New Zealand. With Australia China, we have to recognise that values severely impact on NZ economically. Is and a number of EU states more vocally don’t just go away, and despite the clear diversifcation of our trading partners the articulating their values-based opposition risk-aversion of New Zealand leaders logical approach to mitigating this? to China in many areas, does New in this area, recent moves by Xi Jinping Zealand have less to fear from pursuing to consolidate his power at home could RS: Absolutely. While the global system a less muted, less risk-averse, more frank have implications for Chinese foreign has experienced a period of relative rapport with China? policy and for broader Western-Chinese stability since the end of the Cold War (in relations. many ways owing to the sheer scale of RS: For a start, I will push back a Perhaps New Zealand needs to have American power), we should bear in mind bit against the assertion in your frst a frank rapport with itself and decide that periods of stability can rapidly end. sentence. I would not say culture and whether it wants to stand up for values At present, there are indications that values are necessarily defning the in world affairs at all and to what extent, global competition – in both the military international security context in the or if it is comfortable with adoption a and economic spheres – is heating up in 21st century. At times, they motivate position of agnostic transactionalism for a number of regions, and between the the behaviour of states. However, the foreseeable future.

Line of Defence 39 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Centre for Defence and Security Studies to host second biennial security conference

Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies (CDSS) will host its second biennial security conference at its Auckland campus in April. The first conference in 2016 brought together around 150 top government oficials and academics from the security sector.

“Why do we need a second national Professor Azizian also pointed to He sees another key development security conference? Number one the recent change in government, and being the new government’s emphasis is that it’s important that we sustain the need to understand what the new on the importance of a consultative the momentum from the frst one government’s national security priorities approach to foreign policy and other key in terms of developing an inclusive are. policies. and nationwide dialogue on national “There are some indications that the “How is that new consultation security,” Professor Rouben Azizian, new government’s approach will have going to demonstrate itself in the Head of CDSS, told Line of Defence. some new approaches compared to national security arena? Is, for example, “Our frst conference identifed the previous one, including the famous the government going to develop a some gaps and challenges. One was a remark by Jacinda Ardern during the proper national security strategy or relatively weak participation by business election campaign that climate change not? and non-governmental organisations is New Zealand’s new nuclear free “One of the differences between and the other was a sometimes defensive moment. To me this is a very securitised a handbook and a strategy is that a reaction from certain government reference to climate change. strategy is a more inclusive process and offcials to criticism… we need to learn “There also seems a new opening in done through consultation, whereas how to interact with and trust each New Zealand’s relations with the Pacifc a handbook is written by a group of other in this dialogue.” region and an emphasis on promotion bureaucrats and experts.” of human rights and democratic values. The conference will bring “Are these new directions in New participants together over a full two-day Zealand foreign and security policy program, with Day One centering on going to complement New Zealand’s several expert addresses, and Day Two traditional security emphasis or will comprising a series of workshops in they be at its expense. For example, which Professor Azizian expects the ‘So are resources going to be redirected what?’ questions from Day One to be away from Defence to some other answered. areas or is Labour going to continue “I’d suggest that this conference with National’s emphasis on enhancing could also be a helpful step in enhancing Defence preparedness, and how is this national security dialogue between going to play out? government and non-government, The relationship between New business and others through maybe the Zealand, its key partners and the major establishment of some kind of informal powers are also open to reassessment, security network,” he said. including whether China is to be regarded “As an outcome we want frst as a competitor in the immediate region to continue to consolidate this or a threat. “In the Prime Minister’s national security community and recent foreign policy speech,” notes secondly to develop some kind of Professor Azizian, “she talked of China recommendations for government as one of New Zealand’s friends, yet in in terms of its future security policy, speaking of the Pacifc Islands there was and maybe identify some areas for Professor Rouben Azizian, Head of Massey defnitely the suggestion that China was discussion and collaboration in specifc University’s Centre for Defence and Security becoming a challenge.” areas of security.” Studies

40 Line of Defence Line of Defence congratulates Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies on the hosting of its 2nd Biennial Security Conference. INTERNATIONAL SECURITY The case for closer Japan - New Zealand cooperation in the Pacific Dr Tadashi Iwami, Visiting Research Fellow at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies, argues that there remains plenty of room for New Zealand and Japan to expand their Pacific-focused security cooperation.

On 27 February during her frst foreign who share our values.” Australia, as New disappointing. Despite her emphasis policy speech to the New Zealand Zealand’s closest friend, and the US, as a on value-laden foreign policy, and Institute of International Affairs, Prime like-minded country along with the UK, despite its common values with New Minister Jacinda Ardern highlighted were front of mind. The implication was Zealand, Japan was not acknowledged New Zealand’s continued efforts as a that such enduring bonds are critical in a as a friend. Nor was Singapore, another member of the Pacifc community in region where in recent years China (also vital CPTTP participant, despite securing the region, stating that it has listed as a ‘friend’) has upped its economic enhanced defence ties symbolised by been made possible through “the people and military presence. last September’s joint training exercise at of our Defence Force” along with The hallmark of Ms Ardern’s speech RNZAF Base Ohakea. foreign aid and community engagement. is the idea that New Zealand’s foreign Surely, this does not imply that Japan Despite such efforts, her key message policy would be value-laden, it would is not a friend of New Zealand. On was “we can do better, and we will.” closely work with those friends who the contrary, Tokyo has been among Although not elaborating on how she share common values, and it would do the very few friends who share with would achieve this goal, Ms Ardern said better. Wellington a strong bond and shared that New Zealand “will look to strengthen common values in relation to the Pacifc. partnerships with long-standing friends A friend across the Pacific New Zealand and Japan have managed Maritime surveillance to establish a strong relationship since What then can we do together the Second World War. New Zealand’s and better? One of the common initial negative sentiment towards Japan, comparative advantages of these two apparent in the immediate aftermath of countries over other key players in the that war, is long gone. Pacifc is their shared emphasis on Over the last fve years, more maritime security, particularly maritime than 230 young New Zealanders have surveillance. travelled to Japan as English teachers As Peter Greener noted in the Spring and coordinators through the JET 2017 issue of Line of Defence Magazine, programme, and many more have done New Zealand has a proven track record so outside this programme. More than of commitment to maritime surveillance 100,000 Japanese visited New Zealand of illegal fshing. New Zealand’s 2016 in 2017. Japan is New Zealand’s fourth Defence White Paper explicitly states that largest trading partner. such surveillance activities and counter- Both countries are advocates of the piracy operations in the Pacifc and Comprehensive and Progressive Trans- beyond are part of its international Pacifc Partnership (CPTPP). Indeed, efforts in maintaining security and eleven nations surrounding the Pacifc, prosperity. Dr Tadashi Iwami is a Lecturer in including New Zealand, Japan and other As for New Zealand’s strategic view International Relations and Japanese like-minded states, such as Australia, of Japan, the White Paper welcomes Studies at IPU New Zealand in Palmerston Canada, Chile and Singapore, signed its “recent moves to make a more North, and a Visiting Scholar at Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security the CPTPP in Santiago, Chile, on 9 proactive contribution to international Studies. His ongoing research explores February. security”, employing an almost identical Japan’s peace-building role in international In this regard, Prime Minister catch-phrase to that of Japanese Prime society. Ardern’s speech was somewhat Minister Shinzo Abe.

42 Line of Defence Under the Abe administration, Japan Mahi Tangaroa in the Hauraki Gulf, What’s the catch? released its Basic Plan on Ocean Policy in along with two newly-constructed P-1 From New Zealand’s point of view, April 2013 to highlight the country’s JMSDF maritime patrol aircraft for the there is one thing we need to be role in the maritime affairs. It proclaims concurrent naval exercise Nga Tahi. aware of about Japan’s heavy industry that in cooperation with other nations, Coincidently, one of the P-1s few over sector related to maritime security and Japan will evolve itself from a country the Kaikoura region to monitor the surveillance. protected by the sea to a country that aftermath of the earthquake that hit on JMSDF destroyer Takanami is a protects the sea. the 15th of that month. state of art ‘Made in Japan’ ship that Also, Japan’s frst National Security Just weeks previously, an RNZAF has participated in various maritime Strategy, published in December 2013, C-130 Hercules visited Komaki base in security activities, such as counter-piracy reiterates its proactive role in taking Nagoya, Japan, on its way home from campaigns off the coast of Somalia, necessary means to deal with piracy, participating in an international air force and search and rescue missions in the ensuring the safe passage of the seas, training exercise in Alaska. In turn, a aftermath of the cr ash of Air Asia and “promot[ing] maritime security Japanese KC-767J visited New Zealand 8501 in Indonesian waters. It was built cooperation with other countries”. in February 2017 for the RNZAF Air in 2000 by the Japan Marine United New Zealand and Japan have begun Tattoo at Ohakea Air Force Base. Corporation (JMU), one of the largest deepening their security cooperation. In June 2017, Royal New Zealand commercial and military shipping In August 2013, both countries signed Navy frigate HMNZS Te Kaha visited builders in Japan, along with Mitsubishi a Memorandum of Intent concerning Defence Japan as its part of a naval taskforce Heavy Industries. and Exchanges. Almost a year later, then group deployment throughout Asia, In the past two years, JMU Prime Minister John Key and Prime and in July, LTGEN Keating returned won JMSDF contracts to build two Minister Abe met in Auckland and to Japan to exchange views on regional destroyers, which are expected to be agreed upon the gradual enhancement security concerns. fully operational by 2021. of their security and defence These two-way good-will visits gave Also, the two P-1 maritime patrol cooperation via an acquisition and both countries a golden opportunity to aircraft that participated in Nga Tahi cross-services agreement (ACSA). learn from each other and strengthen in 2016 are the initial results of Japan’s When New Zealand Chief of their bonds and confdence at the long-lasting ambition to build highly Defence Force LTGEN Tim Keating multidimensional level. New Zealand sophisticated military aircraft (designed and Japanese Chief of Staff, General and Japan can do better together by and built by Kawasaki Heavy Industries Shigeru Iwasaki met in August 2014, continuing to hold such exchanges in collaboration with a Japanese LTGEN Keating assured GEN between the NZDF and JSDF. Ministry of Defence research institute). Shigeru of Japan’s importance as an Coordination in maritime security Disappointing news came to Kawasaki international partner. “Our common and surveillance is particularly vital to in April 2017 when it was reported that values and shared perspectives on both countries given the assumption the RNZAF was likely to purchase four regional security,” he said, “are that maritime resources are becoming US Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime important building blocks underpinning scarcer and in need of better patrol aircraft instead of the P-1. what is a broad and multi-faceted management, and that the shipping Nevertheless, Japan and its defence relationship.” lanes connecting CPTPP members industry will take advantage of training In November 2016, the Japanese are increasingly busy. Given that both exercise events to showcase its state of Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) nations are also prone to natural art building technologies and products destroyer Takanami participated in disasters, disaster relief is also an area to friends and potential customers, maritime security feld training exercise of potential cooperation. including New Zealand.

Line of Defence 43 HOMELAND SECURITY Big events: Is New Zealand prepared for the fixated person threat? Two big events to be hosted in New Zealand in 2021 are the Americas Cup and APEC forum. We speak with Security Consultant and author of Protecting People in New Zealand, Carlton Rufell, about the likely threats.

LoD: What are the major security threats breach airspace, online denial of service On the ground, protecting crowded these events are likely to face? attacks to public information websites places might mean measures such as or more specialised attacks on police parking heavy trucks across streets CR: It’s a long way out to guess what the communications systems – all happening where there will be parties, etc. This specifc threats might be. Without being at the same time. All of these attacks does not look good and is an admission specifc, I think the threats faced will can be defeated by security services that these types of attack could happen become more complex. Threat actors when addressed separately but occurring here. It will take security managers can be expected to increase in technical together they might create signifcant standing up to political interests to make ability and future threat actors will also disruption. sure plans are in place. think across more realms or spaces. I’d be fascinated to know the security In the military there is the concept LoD: Is the threat context of 2021 likely services’ plans for protecting the air of the battle space; consisting of to be signifcantly different to now? space around these events, especially land, air, sea, space and the electronic with the increase in availability of drones. spectrum - including the internet. CR: Geopolitically, the US presidential Following the Brighton Hotel bombing Attacking across as many spaces as election of 2020 will be a time of in 1984 the air defence systems of the you can, at the same time, gives you heightened tension. How regime change minesweeper HMS Cuxton and infatable the chance to overwhelm opposition does or does not playout in that country boats of the Royal Marine Commandos defences. could have a global impact. Other were utilised to protect the Conservative In a protest this might look like the parties may take advantage of a power Party conference in Brighton in 1987. denial of access to specifc streets by vacuum in the US to achieve territorial The devolution of technology to the protestors, illegal drones attempting to gains or to incite confict that shores-up hands of less well-funded and organised their power at home. groups means military resources (more This is not so much a threat for than we currently see now) may be the America’s Cup, but as APEC is a necessary to ensure the security of these concentration of world leaders it might global events. become a target for threat actors. A second term for Trump could also LoD: What needs to happen between provide context for locally organised now and then to ensure that these protests or fxated persons to disrupt events are as secure as they should be? APEC. CR: The comprehensive security LoD: Where are the potential gaps and planning for these events is no doubt vulnerabilities? underway. Fixated persons are recognised as CR: New Zealand has not addressed its an issue internationally and there are capability to protect crowded places. evidence-based ways to identify and There is an Australia/New Zealand treat them, and to manage the risks. approach [via the ANZCTC] on how Australia and the UK have found that this should be achieved through public/ these approaches can be used to manage private partnerships [Australia’s Strategy particular risks during large scale events. for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism], New Zealand is currently but no resources in the New Zealand trialing these approaches but full Carlton Rufell, PSP CPP Police to put this into action. implementation is yet to be considered.

44 Line of Defence CIVSEC 2018: Security, safety and sovereignty for the Indo-Asia-Pacific CIVSEC 2018, the civil security congress and exposition first held in 2016, is back for its second iteration in Melbourne. The biennial event brings together professionals engaged in the business of protecting people, infrastructure, resources and communities.

“The civil security sector is that element of national security that is looked after and stewarded by the civilian agencies,” Dr Richard Shortt, Executive Manager Civil Security Development at event organisers Aerospace Maritime and Defence Foundation of Australia Limited, told Line of Defence. This includes a wide range of actors, community that says we haven’t had of mental illness or because of some from public sector law enforcement, any terrorist outrages, so aren’t we perceived wrong they may have suffered. emergency management, and the policy overreacting to this?” The terrible incident of the man who agencies that support them, to private “I think somewhere in the middle walked into the [Ashburton] Work and sector security and critical infrastructure of those two is a balance point, which I Income Offce is an example.” providers. think the Australians are managing quite One of the several events that “Civsec 2018 brings together a well.” On that count, he praised the make up CIVSEC 2018, the theme of number of speakers that represent ANZCTC document Australia’s Strategy the Civil Security in the 21st Century private sector interests,” said Dr Shortt. for Protecting Crowded Places from Terrorism. Conference is ‘Rise of the Cities – the “For example, Mr John Yates, Global “I think that it’s an excellent piece civil security challenges for 2020 and Head of Security for Scentre Group of work that’s drawn from a threat beyond’. and responsible for Westfeld Shopping assessment of the evolution of the threat “Our cities continue to grow. In the Centres worldwide is bringing to our of terrorism and disaffected people, south east Asian region, we have mega event that side of the private sector it’s drawn from the tragedies that have cities of 10 million-plus individuals that looks after public spaces on private happened overseas in Europe and the living in cities,” explained Dr Shortt. premises – where any number of us Middle East where vehicles have been “The growth of cities poses a particular spend a considerable amount of our used as weapons, and it’s endeavoring challenge to government and the private time.” to enable people who are required to sector.” Dr Shortt, who served for over manage the risks associated with that “How do you protect large three decades as a NZ Police officer threat to put in place prudent measures groups of people who congregate for – including two years as a National to protect people in a public space. entertainment, political events? How Security Policy Adviser in the “The terrible incident in Melbourne do you keep public spaces safe? How Department of Prime Minister and a year or so ago where the young man do you protect the infrastructure that’s Cabinet – observes that Australia’s drove his car down a footpath and killed needed to keep roads operating, tunnels success “through some very good six people and injured a number of operating, and public transport systems intelligence and law enforcement others. Not terrorism, just a disaffected operating?” engagement” in thwarting a number young man with problems of his own “Particularly now that cities are so of terrorism-related activities that but he behaved in a way that created integrated into the cyber world, damage might otherwise have led to mass mayhem, and there’s nothing to say that to such a system could be perpetrated casualty events is a ‘double-edged a situation like that couldn’t unfold in from someone’s living room on the sword’. New Zealand totally separate from a other side of the world.” “On the one hand, people say that terrorism incident.” there is a threat and that we need to “New Zealand has a number of CIVSEC 2018 takes place 1-3 May in do something about it,” he said. On people that fall into that category of Melbourne. For details visit the other “is a part of the Australian those who might do things because www.civsec.com.au

Line of Defence 45 HOMELAND SECURITY New Zealand yet to target the threat posed by fixated persons Editor Nicholas Dynon writes that Australia and the UK have found that collaborative police/ mental health approaches to identifying and treating ‘fixated persons’ can reduce risks faced by public figures and the events they attend.

On 15 December 2014, Man Horan He had harboured a grudge against their own idea of justice. According to Monis held 18 people hostage inside the Ashburton WINZ employees and had research conducted in New Zealand Lindt café in Sydney, an incident that led been trespassed by police from the same and internationally, attacks by fxated ultimately to his death and the death of offce he ultimately attacked. persons present an increasing threat to two others. Monis was initially thought Both Monis and Tully have been public fgures and to the events at which to be part of a terrorist group, but it characterised as ‘fxated persons’ – a term public fgures congregate. was later established that he was acting that has come to describe individuals independently. He had serious mental exhibiting pathologically intense fxations UK acts on ‘fixated person’ threat health problems and an established on people or causes, and pursuing In October 2006, the Fixated history of harassing public fgures. their obsessive pre-occupations to an Threat Assessment Centre (FTAC) On 1 September 2014, Russell John abnormally intense degree. was established in the UK as a joint Tully stormed a New Zealand Work Both men were disaffected police/mental health unit by the Home and Income Building, shooting three individuals harbouring personal or Offce, the Department of Health and employees, with only one survivor. ideological grievances and seeking Metropolitan Police Service to assess

46 Line of Defence and manage the risk to politicians, Established in 2013, the Australian Bradley Deacon, a Melbourne-based members of the British Royal Family, state of Queensland established an cyber safety advocate and consultant and other public fgures from obsessive FTAC closely modelled on the UK and former AFP Federal Investigator individuals. centre. It came just in time for the 2014 agrees, stating in a Linkedin article Various studies in Western Europe royal visit and G20 Finance Ministers’ that there is a need for a NFTAC “to had identifed that the main danger of Meeting in Brisbane. be established and funded by Federal death or serious injury to politicians The events presented opportunities Governments.” was from attacks by individuals for the Queensland Fixated Threat “A NFTAC will allow a national suffering from mental health illness Assessment Centre (QFTAC) to develop database to be established and who had given some warning of and refne its approach to assessing and coordinated by a centralised body for what they might do in the form of managing the threat posed by fxated dissemination to the relevant state based inappropriate, harassing or threatening persons at such events. In the week FTAC’s that are staffed by state police communications or approaches. prior to the G20 Summit, six fxated and mental health personnel.” The United States presented a people required hospitalisation for To date, no NFTAC has been similar picture, where renowned acute psychosis. A further 18 cases established. In 2017, however, FTACs forensic psychiatrist Park Dietz has were identifed during the event, one – or Fixated Persons Investigations commented “Every instance of an of whom was an involuntary patient Units – were established within the state attack on a public fgure by a lone whose leave from hospital was revoked police forces of Victoria and New South stranger in the United States for which as a consequence of his concerning Wales. adequate information has been made behaviour at one of the G20 venues. publicly available has been the work of “This novel diversionary model The New Zealand context a mentally disordered person who issued for assessing and intervening with According to the 2015 paper one or more pre-attack signals in the concerning, fxated persons at major “Harassment, stalking, threats and form of inappropriate letters, visits or events proved effective in mitigating attacks targeting New Zealand statements…” the risk posed by these individuals,” politicians: A mental health issue” FTAC was established on the stated the paper. “It also highlighted published in the Australia & New Zealand recommendation of a research the need for police, security and mental Journal of Psychiatry, there is currently group that had conducted a study of health services to consider the fxated “no service in New Zealand tasked inappropriate communications and in major event planning, for the safety with identifying the warning signs of approaches to members of the British of the event, the public and vulnerable fxated individuals and, where indicated, royal family. The study had found that mentally ill, fxated persons.” facilitating interventions by mental 83 percent of the individuals concerned health agencies and/or the police.” were suffering from psychosis. Calls for an Australian national FTAC An enquiry made by Line of The role of FTAC is to detect such In a March 2016 paper published as part Defence to NZ Police also confrms signals of fxation, evaluate the risks of the Australian Defence Force Centre that police in New Zealand do not involved and intervene to reduce them. for Defence and Strategic Studies’ currently operate an FTAC, but “are Intervention often entails obtaining Indo-Pacifc Strategic Papers, Commander aware of overseas developments and treatment and care for the fxated Kate Buggy of the Australian Federal are exploring the concept in the New individual from psychiatric and social Police proposes the establishment of Zealand context.” services and GPs. The focus is on a National Fixated Threat Assessment According to the authors of the prevention. Centre (NFTAC) “to assess the threat above paper (Every-Palmer et al), Of its frst 100 cases, 86 percent posed by persons, regardless of whether there is a place for such an initiative of those assessed by FTAC were they fall into a category of lone wolf, in New Zealand. This is supported diagnosed as suffering from psychosis; fxated person or other, grievance- by “information from Parliamentary 57 percent of this group were admitted fuelled violent actors.” Services that, of those identified to hospital, and 26 percent treated in the “The intention is to increase the as ‘people of concern’, 75% have community. In 80 percent of cases, the possibility of risk mitigation either established or suspected mental risk level posed by the individual was through community referral, mental illness.” Parliamentary Services reduced to low by FTAC intervention. health intervention or police action… monitor instances of threatening It is designed to enhance current behaviour, identifying approximately Queensland acts on the threat counter-terrorism and protective 600 people as potential security risks The paper “A model for managing the security arrangements, and not redesign at any one time. mentally ill fxated person at major existing structures that are functioning “Diverting this group into treatment events” published in the Australian and effectively,” wrote Commander performs an important public health New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry in 2015 Buggy. “The policy is deliberately function, simultaneously improving concurs that the main risk of serious enduring in that it provides enhanced their health outcomes and reducing harm at major public fgure gatherings security for multiple scenarios, as the risk to MPs, their families, staff comes not from terrorists or criminal well as demonstrating a responsibility and the general public. It also reduces activity but from fxated persons, many to those that require mental health unnecessary allocation of resources to of whom have a serious mental illness. intervention.” poorly understood threats.”

Line of Defence 47 BORDER SECURITY NZ Customs: Understanding and improving the traveller experience

Harnessing virtual reality technology to improve the traveller experience in Christchurch Airport’s international departure area is one way NZ Customs is seeking to ensure a customer centric approach to border security.

Securing borders has never been more problematic as airports and border authorities grapple with the twin challenge of keeping borders open for business yet alert to non-verifed travellers and closed to criminals and opportunists. Charged with preventing the entry of non-bona fde travellers, terrorists and violent extremists, managing increased asylum seeker fows, and keeping foreign fghters from passing undetected through borders, the potential consequences of letting the wrong people through the border have never been so fraught. This has required additional layers of scrutiny at the border and offshore during visa application assessment, including more stringent public interest And that’s just tourists. The Global Seamless traveller – eGate 2.0 criteria checking, greater cooperation War on Terror and the various conficts The Australian Government tendered with intelligence, law enforcement and that have wreaked havoc in its wake, last year for a replacement to SmartGate defence agencies, and information including the confict against IS in Syria – the “Seamless Traveller” project. This sharing with foreign government and Iraq, have led to unprecedented project is expected to abolish the need partners. refugee and asylum seeker numbers. for passenger cards, exit point marshalls, So, on the one hand, the terror threat In spite – or more correctly because SmartGate paper cards and passport has resulted in border authorities having – of the magnitude of these post-9/11 control, replacing manned desks and to implement more onerous, intrusive challenges, border security has become electronic stations with automated triage checks on travellers, yet at the same time a hotbed of innovation. It’s ironic, but it points that utilise contactless technology more people than ever are travelling could be argued that al Qaeda has been and facial recognition cameras. internationally – and demanding greater responsible for the most signifcant levels While travellers will still have to carry ease of mobility. of growth and innovation in the history their passport, they will not need to break According to IATA, 1.45bn of international border security. their step throughout the airport journey. passengers few internationally in 2016, If you’ve travelled internationally They will instead be processed via and international tourism is expected to from New Zealand in the last nine years recognition of their biometrics that will grow by 3.3 percent year on year to 2030. with an RFID chip-enabled ePassport, be matched to data stored in immigration Asia Pacifc tourism is growing at the rate then chances are you’ve used eGate. First systems as they walk past. of fve percent annually, fueled by the rise implemented in Australia (as SmartGate), The new world-frst “contactless” of affuent middle classes among BRICS eGate deals more accurately with the task technology has been trialled at Canberra’s and particularly China and India, who of getting more low-risk travellers through and Sydney’s international Airports and are demanding increased mobility via the border faster, while allowing border is due to be rolled out across the country bilateral visa liberalisation arrangements. staff to deal with higher risk passengers. from this year.

48 Line of Defence The insights from a previous crowd testing study helped to form an initial baseline understanding of how people perceive the symbols, signs, and layouts of the existing departures area. Using VR for user research allowed for an immersive experience of the departures process for participants. The user scenarios and environment were constructed to capture the spirit of the experience. Twenty-nine participants took part in this research holding passports from 10 different countries (some participants were dual passport holders with New Zealand being one of their nationalities). Users were exposed to three environments, each featuring The Australian government’s plan is Using Virtual Reality (VR) a different layout of the Customs to allow 90 percent of eligible travellers technology, Customs recently undertook departure area. to “self-process” at the border through a project in partnership with Assurity The purpose of the study was to its SmartGates by 2020. Consultancy, Corvecto, Christchurch build an understanding by immersing Having already followed Australia Airport and fellow the Aviation Security participants in a simulated environment down the SmartGate path – and with Service. and asking them to provide feedback Prime Minister Jacinda Arden having The project allowed 100 customers on signage and their experience as recently suggested the removal of to trial and test new layouts within a they navigated through the three test outgoing passenger cards – the question virtual airport environment – all within layouts. The results contributed to is when – and how – will New Zealand an eight-week timeframe, and with ‘no- the redevelopment of the departures follow suit… and whether Kiwi to-low’ impact on day-to-day users. area, improving the overall customer innovators will step up to compete experience of departing Christchurch Airport as well as resolving some or cooperate with incumbent foreign How it worked suppliers. The immersive environment created operational issues for Customs offcers. In the meantime, airports are by VR simulates real-life experiences The combined ability to confronted with the disruptive and provokes an emotional response crowdsource, apply co-design methods need to refurbish and redesign their unable to be replicated by other research and use VR technology also allowed footprints in order to accommodate methods other than feld studies. valuable research to be made available such developments and ever-increasing Being able to simulate an to other projects, reducing the need to numbers of travellers. Auckland environment allows great agility and can duplicate work effort and cutting costs. International Airport is going through target a diverse range of customers that VR technology will allow both such a process, and NZ Customs has feld studies may not give the researcher agility and fexibility when enhancing looked to virtual reality technology to access to. In a secure environment, such services with a customer focus through reimagine the passenger experience at as an airport departures area, it meant using service design methodologies and Christchurch Airport. that it did not interfere with business as co-designing within Customs, external usual. businesses and customers. VR can be used in the development The Christchurch Airport project According to a report presented Changes to layout, foor space, signage, by Customs to a user experience (UX) of process improvement and in the the introduction of new staff kiosks and meeting held in Wellington in February design of layouts and processes that increased passenger numbers recently 2018 as part of the annual D5 meeting, can be tested without impeding staff or combined to present an opportunity the Christchurch Airport departures VR customers, as there is no dependency for Customs to make the traveller simulation incorporated mock-ups of on someone being physically present in experience in the international departure potential variations of the area, utilising the area concerned. The technology has area at Christchurch Airport more an application built by Corvecto for the scope to be used across numerous pleasant and effcient. use with the HTC Vive virtual reality channels and business initiatives. But service design and implementation headset. By harnessing VR technology, within the environment of a busy working Ordinarily associated with gaming, Customs has made it easier for customers airport can be hard to manage without the HTC Vive headset uses “room to contribute towards the modernisation disruption to staff and customers. A scale” tracking technology, allowing of the border – a uniquely customer- previous project attempting to redesign the user to move in 3D space and use centric result in an environment and improve the departures area layout motion-tracked handheld controllers to otherwise dictated by often demanding took 18 months to complete testing. interact with the environment. aviation and border security imperatives.

Line of Defence 49 BORDER SECURITY

International Customs Day celebrated with Hawk V launch NZ Customs celebrated International Customs Day on 26 January with the oficial launch of its new patrol vessel, the Hawk V, in Auckland. Line of Defence was there.

Docked at Q Berth at Auckland’s Captain Cook Wharf, and under the shadow of HMNZS Wellington berthed astern, the 18 metre twin-hull aluminium catamaran was commissioned by Minister of Customs Meka Whaitiri. Hawk V is the ffth patrol vessel in NZ Customs’ history to bear the Hawk name, with the frst Hawk entering service in January 1881. Faster and with a longer range than its direct predecessor, the new vessel provides Customs with new maritime capabilities and greater interoperability with partner agencies, such as NZ Police. Hawk V’s range extends out to the limits of New Zealand’s 24 nautical mile Contiguous Zone. It is a key part of Custom’s ‘layered defence’ approach to NZ Customs’ new patrol vessel, Hawk V, ofcially launched. border security, focusing on coastal patrols along the east coast of North Island, and particularly the relatively vulnerable According to NZ Customs Group Manager – Intelligence, coastlines of Northland and Bay of Plenty. Investigations & Enforcement, Jamie Bamford, Custom’s Hawk V was locally designed by Teknicraft in Auckland relationship with builders Q-West was a partnership. “It’s and built by Whanganui-based Q-West. “It’s a matter of pride great to be able to support a genuinely world leading kiwi that this craft is New Zealand built,” said the minister. engineering enterprise,” he told Defsec Media. “It’s a kiwi “This country is at the top of its function in terms of design built for kiwi waters.” marine design and build,” she added. “There were no problems delivering to specifcations and Following its commissioning, VIPs boarded the vessel delivering on time.” and were taken on a short cruise from Captain Cook Wharf Each year, the World Customs Organization Secretariat under the Harbour Bridge to the vicinity of Chelsea Bay and chooses an International Customs Day theme relevant to back. The craft handled with extreme smoothness, turning the international Customs community. The slogan chosen effortlessly at speed, and pulling up alongside its wharf for 2018 is “a secure business environment for economic without the hint of a shudder. development.”

Hawk V data Design: Foil supported catamaran Builders: Q-West Overall length: 18.6 metres Beam: 7.0 metres Draf: 0.75 metres Displacement: 35 tonnes Construction method: Marine grade aluminium Engines: 2 x Scania DI 16 076M / Marine diesel engines Engine output: 809 kilowatts Propulsion: 2 x Hamilton HJ403 waterjets Cruising speed: 30 knots Electronics: Simrad On the bridge - Hawk V. Thermal camera: FLIR M400XR

50 Line of Defence EVENTS

National Security Asia 2018 (NATSEC 2018) NZDIA Members Meeting When: 16-19 April When: 17 July, 1 pm Where: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Where: TBC Details: http://www.natsecasia.com/home Details: [email protected]

Defence Services Asia 2018 Safe Cities Conference 2018 When: 16-19 April 2018 When: 18 July Where: Kuala Lumpur Where: Pullman Melbourne on the Park Details: www.dsaexhibition.com/home/homes Details: https://safecities.net.au

CIVSEC 2018 2018 Security Exhibition & Conference When: 1-3 May When: 25-27 July Where: Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre Where: Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre Details: https://www.civsec.com.au/ Details: https://www.asial.com.au

NZDIA Members Meeting Land Forces 2018 When: 09 May, 1 pm When: 4-6 September 2018 Where: TBC Where: Adelaide Details: [email protected] Details: www.landforces.com.au

MilSatCom Asia Pacific Conference Asian Defense and Security 2018 When: 14th - 15th May 2018 When: 26-28 September Where: Singapore Where: Manila, Philippines Details: http://www.smi-online.co.uk/defence/asia Details: https://www.adas.ph

NDC Security Australia 2018 Smart Cities Expo World Forum When: 14-16 May When: 3-4 September Where: QT Gold Coast Where: Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre Details: https://ndcsecurity.com.au Details: http://smartcitiesexpoworldforum.com

National Emergency Management Conference 2018 Facilities Integrate When: 29-31 May When: 25-26 September Where: Te Papa, Wellington Where: ASB Showgrounds, Auckland Details: https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/about Details: https://www.facilitiesintegrate.nz

16m Patrol Vessel 18m Patrol Vessel Melbourne Auckland

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