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An Analysis of Contextual Effects on Electoral Behavior. Charles E Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1972 An Analysis of Contextual Effects on Electoral Behavior. Charles E. Grenier Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Grenier, Charles E., "An Analysis of Contextual Effects on Electoral Behavior." (1972). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 2212. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/2212 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This dissertation was produced from a microfilm copy of the original document. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the original submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or patterns which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting thru an image and duplicating adjacent pages to insure you complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a large round black mark, it is an indication that the photographer suspected that the copy may have moved during exposure and thus cause a blurred image. You will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., was part of the material being photographed the photographer followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin photoing at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue photoing from left to right in equal sections with a small overlap. If necessary, sectioning is continued again — beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. The majority of users indicate that the textual content is of greatest value, however, a somewhat higher quality reproduction could be made from "photographs" if essential to the understanding o f the dissertation. Silver prints of "photographs" may be ordered at additional charge by writing the Order Department, giving the catalog number, title, author and specific pages you wish reproduced. University Microfilms 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 A Xerox Education Company 72-28,346 GRENIER, Charles E., 1930- AN ANALYSIS OF CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS ON ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR. The Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Ph.D., 1972 Sociology, general University Microfilms, A XEROX Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan AN ANALYSIS OP CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS ON ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Sociology by Charles E. Grenier B.A. Southeastern Louisiana University, 1956 M.B.A. Louisiana State University, 1960 May, 1972 PLEASE NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. University Microfilms, A Xerox Education Company ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author wishes to express his sincere appreciation and gratitude to his Major Professor, Dr. Perry H. Howard, for his Invaluable assistance and guidance in the research and writing of this dissertation. His interest and enthusiasm made this research project an enjoyable experience. Appreciation is also extended to Professors Vernon Parenton, Wilfred Holton, Neil Paterson, Miles Richardson, Virgil Williams and Quentin Jenkins for their constructive criticism. Special gratitude is offered to my wife, Virginia, and daughter, Cheryl. It will be impossible for me to repay them for their patience and encouragement during the past four years. The author takes full responsibility for all the shortcomings and errors that this study might contain. 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...............................................11 LIST OF TABLES................................................ vl LIST OF FIGURES ............................................. viii ABSTRACT.................................................... * CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION: THE STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM, AND THE THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK............. 1 Concepts and Strategies............................ 4 General Problem: Two Stages of Investigation....... 7 Political Ecological Analysis.................... 10 Political Ecological Variables and Analytical Procedure........................................... 10 Factor Analysis of Latent Political Dispositions ................................... 11 Cluster Procedure.............. 12 Contextual Analysis.................................. 15 Survey Level Variables . .......................... 20 Dependent Variables................................ 20 Independent Variables. .... ..... 21 II. LATENT POLITICAL DISPOSITION PROFILE ANALYSIS............ 22 Factor Analysis Procedure............................ 23 Factor Analysis Results.............................. 25 Analysis of Factor Dimensions........................ 30 Urban-Republicanism................................ 30 Catholic-Moderation................................ 32 Raclal-Radlcalism.................................. 35 H i CHAPTER PAGE Validity Teat....................................... 38 Factor Structure Compariaon.......................... 39 III. DELINEATION OF POLITICAL ECOLOGICAL SUBREGIONS ....... 42 Parish Cluster Procedure .......................... 42 Eight Political Ecological Subregions................. 44 Urban French ..................................... 46 Agrarian French................................... 48 Piney Woods-Hllls................................. 49 Black B e l t ....................................... 50 Urban North................................... 51 Urban South....................................... 52 Emergent-Transitional.................... 53 Orleans................................... 54 Howard's Voter Types Revisited .................... 55 IV. CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS ................................. 60 Variables........................................... 61 Contextual Effects Model ........... 63 Hypotheses....................................... 65 F i n d i n g s ......................................... 67 Voter Profile Analysis .......................... 76 Causal Model of Environmental Effects. ............. 83 General Hypotheses.................. 84 Nixon Model..................................... 87 Wallace Model............ 93 Humphrey Model ............. 95 V. GENERAL SUMMARY ....................................... 99 iv PAGE APPENDIX I. PER CENT TABULATION OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT FOR THREE CANDIDATES IN THE 1968 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, CATHOLIC POPULATION, BLACK POPULATION, AND URBAN POPULATION, BY PARISH.................... 108 APPENDIX II. CONTOUR MAPS OF SELECTED AGGREGATE LEVEL VARIABLES EMPLOYED IN THE LATENT DISPOSITION ANALYSIS ....................................... Ill APPENDIX III. INTERCORRELATION MATRIX OF SELECTED PARISH LEVEL POLITICAL ECOLOGICAL VARIABLES ............. 143 BIBLIOGRAPHY.................................................. 154 VITA.......................................................... 161 v LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I Percentage of Total State Vote ........................... 2 II A Rotated Factor Matrix of Selected Soclo-Cultural and Political Indicators Representing the 1960-70 Period.... 26 III Dimension I - Urban-Republicanism: Factor Loadings....... 27 IV Standardized: Factor Scores for the Rotated Factor Solution.............................................. 28 V Dimension II - Catholic-Moderation: Factor Loadings .... 33 VI Dimension III - Racial-Radicalism: Factor Loadings....... 36 VII Rotated Factor Matrix of 36 Selected Gubernatorial, Presidential, and Socio-Cultural Variables ............... 40 VIII Urban French - Cluster I: Factor Scores .... ......... 47 IX Agrarian-French - Cluster II: Factor Scores ............. 49 X Piney Woods-Hllls - Cluster III: Factor Scores........... 50 XI Black Belt - Cluster IV: Factors Scores ................. 51 XII Urban-North - Cluster V: Factor Scores................... 52 XIII Urban-South - Cluster VI: Factor Scores ................. 53 XIV Emergent-Transitional - Cluster VII: Factor Scores....... 54 XV Orleans - Cluster VIII: Factor Scores ................... 55 XVI Least-Squares Analysis of Variance for Selected Individual Level and Aggregate Level Attitudes and Their First-Order Interactions ........................................... 69 XVII Candidate Choice Means for the Three Candidates for Black and White Voters ....................................... 70 XVIII Candidate Choice Means of the Three Presidential Candidates for Protestants and Catholic Voters...................... 71 vi TABLE PAGE XIX Candidate Support Means for Categories of Interaction Between Race and Variations in Minority Group Population Density (Brace) ....................................... 71 XX Mean Nixon Support by Race.............................. 72 XXI Mean Humphrey Support (Erace) .........................
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