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Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security: an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach

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Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security: an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Dissertation Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach Mustafa Oguz C O R P O R A T I O N Dissertation Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach Mustafa Oguz This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2014 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Bart Bennett (Chair), Mahyar Amouzegar, and Veysi Isler. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2014 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This dissertation analyzes several policy options that could help increase border security by reducing militant actions from safe havens in foreign territory. In particular, this dissertation focuses on a particularly section of the Turkish-Iraqi border that is difficult to protect. The main threat along the border is militant infiltrations and militant attacks on border security outposts. Policy options considered are relocating outposts, additional soldiers, unattended ground sensors and foreign border guards that provide early warning of militant movements. A simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects of these options. Infiltrators and border guards are assigned simple behavior rules. Outcomes are collected from their interaction on a virtual segment of the border. The results are analyzed to find the least costly way of increasing the percentage of militant infiltration attempts interdicted and decreasing soldier casualties in outposts. This dissertation will be useful to policy makers who need to implement cost-effective policies to control land borders. The agent-based modeling and simulation methodology presented in this dissertation will be of interest to researchers interested in innovative approaches to policy problems. The dissertation was written as a degree completion requirement for the Pardee RAND Graduate School. RAND Arroyo Research Center provided generous funding for the dissertation. iii Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ ix Tables ........................................................................................................................................... xiii Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... xv Summary ..................................................................................................................................... xvii Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................ xxi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. xxiii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Motivation ............................................................................................................................................ 2 Organization of this Paper .................................................................................................................... 6 2. Case Studies: Border Security Challenges and Solutions ........................................................... 7 Border security challenges and solutions ................................................................................................. 7 PAVN Infiltration in South Vietnam .................................................................................................... 7 French Algeria borders ....................................................................................................................... 13 Cordon Sanitaire in Rhodesia ............................................................................................................. 16 India’s borders with Bangladesh and Pakistan ................................................................................... 20 Israel Separation Barrier (Israel Security Fence) ............................................................................... 25 Iraq’s borders ...................................................................................................................................... 28 Turkish-Iraqi border ........................................................................................................................... 30 Lessons from the review of border security practices ........................................................................ 31 3. Border Security Models and Simulations ................................................................................. 35 Analytical border security models .......................................................................................................... 35 v Sensor networks for border security ....................................................................................................... 39 Creating a New Border Security Methodology ...................................................................................... 43 Decisions External to the Model ........................................................................................................ 45 Militant Missions ................................................................................................................................ 47 Border Security Policy Options .......................................................................................................... 49 Model Parameters ............................................................................................................................... 54 Outcomes ............................................................................................................................................ 55 4. Comparison of Current and Preferred Locations ...................................................................... 58 Baseline results ....................................................................................................................................... 58 Infiltration results in the preferred locations case .............................................................................. 59 Casualty results in the preferred locations case .................................................................................
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