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Construction (Overweight ) INDUSTRY INSIGHT 15 May 2017

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Construction (Overweight ) INDUSTRY INSIGHT 15 May 2017 HLIB Research PP 9484/12/2012 (031413) Construction (Overweight ) INDUSTRY INSIGHT 15 May 2017 The rail deal Highlights . Mega rail projects on the cards. We have identified 4 mega rail Jeremy Goh, CFA projects that will be rolled out over the next 2-3 years. These [email protected] include the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), KL-Singapore High Speed (603) 2168 1138 Rail (HSR), Gemas-JB Electrified Double Track (EDT) and MRT3 Circle Line. Collectively, these mega rail projects will have a total cost of RM171bn. KLCON Index (341.7 pts) Pts Pts . ECRL: The eastern link. The 600km ECRL (RM55bn) will link 350.0 1800 Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Selangor. Financing of will 330.0 1750 come from EXIM Bank of China while CCCC will lead the 310.0 1700 construction works. SPAD has given its conditional approval for the 290.0 1650 ECRL which is now undergoing a 3 month public inspection. Final approval is targeted for June and construction is to begin in July. 270.0 1600 250.0 1550 . HSR: 2 nations, 1 journey. In Dec 2016, Malaysia and Singapore KLCON (LHS) KLCI (RHS) 230.0 1500 inked a bilateral agreement to implement the 350km HSR. The JDP May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 May-17 has been appointed and tenders for the asset company will be called by year end while the infra works are expected in 1Q18. Stock Rating Price Target Media reports have placed the HSR’s cost at RM60bn. Gamuda BUY 5.40 5.74 . Gemas-JB EDT: The final stretch. The Gemas-JB section IJM BUY 3.54 3.91 (191km) is the final EDT stretch from the north to s outh of the MRCB Under Review 1.73 n.a. GKent BUY 4.18 4.73 Peninsular. A consortium of 3 state owned Chinese contractors was awarded the RM9bn job in Oct 2016. Work has yet to start due to issues with the state authorities. MRT3: Orbital link. Also dubbed the Circle Line, MRT3 will largely be underground, providing interchange stations with other radial rail lines (wheel and spooks concept). Currently at a feasibility study stage, the 45-48km MRT3 is said to cost RM50bn. Risks . A pull out of Chinese investments and/or funding would impact some of these mega rail projects (e.g. ECRL and Gemas -JB EDT). Rating Maintain OVERWEIGHT . While the bulk of these mega rail projects will be led by foreign contractors, we estimate that 39% could be undertaken by locals, potentially generating RM67bn worth of job flows. The significance of these mega rail projects to the construction sector should not be underestimated. To illustrate, domestic job wins to listed contracts hit a high of RM28bn in 2012 and RM56bn in 2016 when the MRT1 and MRT2 was rolled out. Stock . Gamuda: Strong track record in rail jobs such as the Kaohsiung Picks MRT, Northern EDT, MRT1 and MRT2. Targets to add RM10bn to orderbook over the next 1-2 years from these rail jobs. GKent: Only local player with expertise in rail related systems. Has experience with Ampang LRT extension systems, LRT3 PDP and MRT2 track works. IJM: Beneficiary of ECRL via 60% stake in Kuantan Port and 20% stake in MCKIP (industrial park). ECRL will have a station at Kuantan Port while MCKIP is located 12km away. MRCB: In negotiations to develop a transport terminal for the HSR at Bandar Malaysia. Can leverage on its track record in Transit Oriented Developments (TODs). Page 1 of 11 15 May 2017 HLIB Research | Construction w ww.hlebroking.com Prelude The rail deal History of mega rail projects. Several mega rail projects have been implemented in RM86bn worth of rail Malaysia over the past decade. Amongst these include the Electrified Double Track projects implemented in the from Ipoh to Padang Besar (RM12.5bn) and from Seremban to Gemas (RM3.5bn). past decade More urban rail networks were also constructed such as the LRT extension for both the Ampang and Kelana lines (RM7bn), LRT3 from Bandar Utama to Klang (RM9bn), MRT1 Sg Buloh to Kajang (SBK Line) (RM22bn) and MRT2 Sg Buloh to Serdang to Putrajaya (SSP Line) (RM32bn). More on the cards. Looking ahead, we have identified another 4 mega rail projects that are set to be rolled out over the next 2-3 years. Collectively, these 4 mega rail jobs 4 upcoming mega rail will have a staggering cost of RM171bn with total length of 1,189km. These include the projects worth RM171bn to East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), KL-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR), Gemas-JB be rolled out… Electrified Double Track (EDT) and MRT3 Circle Line. While work has yet to commence for these 4 mega rail projects, most of them are at a pretty advanced planning stage to be rolled out. For example, (i) the main construction contract for the ECRL and Gemas-JB EDT has been awarded to Chinese contractors, (ii) both Malaysia and Singapore have inked a bilateral agreement for the HSR and (iii) feasibility studies are underway for the MRT3. Figure #1 Upcoming mega rail projects Rail Project Type Length (km) Cost (RM bn) East Coast Rail Link Electrified Double Track 600 55 KL Singapore High Speed Rail High Speed Rail 350 57 Gemas-JB Double Track Electrified Double Track 191 9 MRT3 Circle Line Mass Rapid Transit 48 50 Total 1,189 171 HLIB estimates Boost for contractors. Whilst the bulk of the works will be undertaken by foreigners, …potentially generating we conservatively estimate that these 4 mega rail projects could generate RM67bn RM67bn worth of work for (39% of contract value) worth of job flows to local contractors. To illustrate the local contractors significance of these mega rail projects, domestic contract awards to listed contractors hit a high of RM28bn in 2012 and RM56bn in 2016 when the MRT1 and MRT2 were rolled out respectively. Figure #2 Domestic contract awards to listed contractors (RM bn) 60 56.4 50 40 28.0 30 21.9 20 17.9 15.6 15.4 11.9 10.0 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 HLIB compilation from Bursa announcements Page 2 of 11 15 May 2017 HLIB Research | Construction w ww.hlebroking.com Highlights East Coast Rail Link Enabler for the east coa st. The East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) was first mooted during RM55bn ECRL will be the the tabling of Budget 2017. It has been identified as a high impact project aimed to largest EDT project in M’sia stimulate economic growth in the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) which covers an area of over 60,000 sq km. This will be done by linking the eastern Peninsular states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang to the western side at Selangor. At a cost of RM55bn, the ECRL will be the largest double tracking project in Malaysia. Figure #3 Proposed alignment of the ECRL Malaysia Rail Link Ea stern connectivity. With a total length of 600.3km (including 65.9km in spur lines), the ECRL will have 23 stations (4 provisional). The rail line will link key cities including Connecting eastern states to Kota Bahru, Kuala Terengganu, Cherating, Kuantan and Gombak as well as industrial Selangor in the west parks such as Kemaman, Kerteh and the upcoming Kuantan Port City. It will also connect to the KTM line in Wakaf Bahru and Mentakab and Kelana LRT in Gombak. Roughly 50km of the ECRL’s alignment will involve hill and underground tunnelling with the single longest stretch from Gombak to Bentong (18km). End-to-end travel time via ECRL will take 4 hours compared to 10 hours currently via road. Page 3 of 11 15 May 2017 HLIB Research | Construction w ww.hlebroking.com Malaysia-China bilateral effort. Malaysia Rail Link (MRL), which comes under the Financing and construction Ministry of Finance (MoF), was recently set up to oversee the implementation of the led by China ECRL. Upon completion, MRL will also be the operator and owner of the ECRL. In Nov 2016, a financing and EPC agreement was inked between Malaysia and China. Under the agreement, (i) the latter would provide financing for the project via Export-Import Bank of China and (ii) state owned China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) will lead the construction works. Subcontract opportunity for locals. While CCCC will lead the ECRL’s construction, 30% of ECRL works could we see ample opportunities for local contractors to participate via subcontracts. Part of flow back to local the mutual agreement between Malaysia and China on the ECRL is to ensure some contractors degree of local participation by the former. Earlier in Jan, CCCC stated that it will call tenders soon for local contractors to participate in the ECRL. We understand that as much as 30% of the ECRL’s value could be earmarked for local participation. If so, the ECRL would present RM16.5bn in potential job flows for local contractors to undertake. Timeline ahead. The ECRL has received conditional approval from the Land Public Undergoing public Transport Commission (SPAD) and is currently undergoing a 3-month (March to June) inspection; tenders in July public inspection for its proposed alignment. Should all go well, the final alignment is expected to be approved by end June and construction tenders to begin in July. The entire project is targeted for completion by July 2024 over a 7 year construction period. Figure #4 Implementation timeline for ECRL Malaysia Rail Link KL-Singapore High Speed Rail 2 nations, 1 journey. The KL-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) is a strategic project between the governments of Malaysia and Singapore that aims to facilitate s eamless M’sia and S’pore agree to travel between the two capital cities.
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