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Using Water Balance Models to Approximate the Effects of Climate Change on Spring Catchment Discharge: Mt

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Using Water Balance Models to Approximate the Effects of Climate Change on Spring Catchment Discharge: Mt USING WATER BALANCE MODELS TO APPROXIMATE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPRING CATCHMENT DISCHARGE: MT. HANANG, TANZANIA Randall E. Fish A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Geology MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 2011 © 2011 Randall E. Fish UMI Number: 1492078 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI 1492078 Copyright 2011 by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346 This thesis, “Using Water Balance Models to Approximate the Effects of Climate Change on Spring Catchment Discharge: Mt. Hanang, Tanzania,” is hereby approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN GEOLOGY. Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences Signatures: Thesis Advisor _________________________________________ Dr. John Gierke Department Chair _________________________________________ Dr. Wayne Pennington Date _________________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. vii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... viii 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Literature Review................................................................................................ 2 1.1.1 Groundwater & Springs .................................................................................. 2 1.1.2 Water Balance Models .................................................................................... 3 1.1.3 Recession Analysis ......................................................................................... 6 1.1.4 East Africa Climate: Past and Future .............................................................. 8 1.2 Objectives ........................................................................................................... 9 2 PROJECT SITE (S 4°25’ E 35°20’) ......................................................................... 10 2.1 Geography & Geology ...................................................................................... 10 2.2 People ................................................................................................................ 11 2.3 Hydrology ......................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Jandu Stream ..................................................................................................... 14 3 METHODS ............................................................................................................... 16 3.1 Field Data Collection ........................................................................................ 16 3.2 Recession Analysis ........................................................................................... 17 3.3 Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance ............................................................... 18 3.3.1 Model 1 ......................................................................................................... 19 3.3.2 Model 2 ......................................................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Model Calibration ......................................................................................... 22 3.4 Simulating Climate Changes............................................................................. 24 4 DATA ....................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Temperature ...................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Precipitation ...................................................................................................... 26 4.3 Discharge .......................................................................................................... 27 5 RESULTS & DISCUSSION..................................................................................... 29 iii 5.1 Water Quality Parameters ................................................................................. 29 5.2 Recession Analysis ........................................................................................... 30 5.3 Water Balance Model Calibrations ................................................................... 31 5.4 Climate Scenarios ............................................................................................. 36 6 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 39 7 FUTURE WORK ...................................................................................................... 40 REFERENCE LIST .......................................................................................................... 41 8 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 46 8.1 University of Texas Copyright Information ..................................................... 46 8.2 Tanzania Geological Survey Permission .......................................................... 47 8.3 U.S. Geological Survey Copyright Information ............................................... 48 8.4 Isotope Data ...................................................................................................... 48 8.5 Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance Equations .............................................. 50 8.6 Katesh Precipitation Data ................................................................................. 52 8.7 Jandu Monthly Discharge Data ......................................................................... 53 8.8 Jandu Water Geochemistry Reports .................................................................. 54 8.9 CD Contents ...................................................................................................... 56 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Conceptual diagram of springs ......................................................................... 2 Figure 1.2 Spring hydrograph example ............................................................................. 7 Figure 2.1 Map of Tanzania ............................................................................................. 10 Figure 2.2 Map of the Hanang district ............................................................................. 11 Figure 2.3 Hanang geologic map ..................................................................................... 12 Figure 2.4 Mt. Hanang contour map, spring locations, and Jandu catchment ................. 13 Figure 2.5 Jandu catchment area seen from caretaker's home ......................................... 15 Figure 2.6 Jandu reservoir and weir. ................................................................................ 15 Figure 3.1 Field data tools ............................................................................................... 16 Figure 3.2 Graph of baseflow recession curve and fitted trend line ................................ 18 Figure 3.3 Thornthwaite-Mather model (TMWB) conceptualization. ............................ 19 Figure 3.4 Model 1 conceptualization (parameters are in red) ........................................ 20 Figure 3.5 Model 2 conceptualization (parameters are in red) ........................................ 22 Figure 4.1 Katesh mean monthly precipitation (1984-2010) ........................................... 27 Figure 4.2 Annual precipitation as deviation from the mean........................................... 27 Figure 4.3 Minimum, maximum, and mean Jandu discharge (2004-2010) ..................... 28 Figure 4.4 Jandu discharge and Katesh precipitation (2004-2010) ................................. 28 Figure 5.1 Dry-season discharge for observed data, Model 1, and Model 2 ................... 32 Figure 5.3 Modeled annual evapotranspiration ............................................................... 33 Figure 5.4 Dry season 2009 - Model 1 discharge and observed discharge...................... 33 Figure 5.5 June and October discharge (2004-2009) ....................................................... 35 Figure 8.1 Isotopic abundances for Jandu stream ............................................................ 49 v LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Perturbed climate scenarios ............................................................................. 25 Table 4.1 Mean monthly temperatures (°C) for Basotu Station ...................................... 26 Table 5.1 Jandu stream water quality and geochemistry measurements for 2010 ........... 29 Table 5.2 Monthly recession constants
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