A Water Balance Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Variability and Human Modification on the Flow Regime of the Mississippi River, 1932-1988
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Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1994 A Water Balance Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Variability and Human Modification on the Flow Regime of the Mississippi River, 1932-1988. Judy Lee Hoff Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Hoff, Judy Lee, "A Water Balance Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Variability and Human Modification on the Flow Regime of the Mississippi River, 1932-1988." (1994). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 5728. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/5728 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. 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Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9502114 A water balance evaluation of the effects of climate variability and human modification on the flow regime of the Mississippi River, 1932-1988 Hoff, Judy Lee, Ph.D. The Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical Col., 1994 Copyright ©1994 by Hoff, Judy Lee. All rights reserved. UMI 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 A WATER BALANCE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HUMAN MODIFICATION ON THE FLOW REGIME OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER: 1932-1988 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Judy Lee Hoff B.S., Tennessee Technological University, 1977 B.S., Tennessee Technological University, 1982 May 1994 ®Copyright 1994 Judy Lee Hoff All rights reserved ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to extend my sincere appreciation and gratitude to my advisory committee for their assistance, support, and encouragement. Dr. Robert A. Muller, Dr. Margaret A. Reams, Dr. Nina S.-N. Lam, Dr. Gregory E. Faiers, Dr. William V. Davidson, and Dr. C. Fred Bryan have been valuable committee members, excellent teachers, and wonderful friends. In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Katherine K. Hirschboeck and Dr. Jay C. Means for serving as committee members during the initial stages of my research. My special thanks go to Dr. Davidson for encouraging my interest in the Department of Geography and Anthropology. I will always be grateful to Dr. Muller for his patience during the writing of this dissertation. He has provided incentive, direction, and helpful criticism throughout my graduate school years. I especially appreciate his encouragement and support during the final stages of this project. I hope that we will remain good friends for a long time. I am extremely grateful to John M. Grymes III for obtaining climate data from the National Center for Climatic Data and for computing the divisional water balances for this study. Mr. Don Flowers of the Vicksburg Office and Dr. Cecil Soilleau of the New Orleans Office of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers graciously supplied discharge data and additional information. The Department of Geography and Anthropology, the Louisiana Office of State Climatology, and the Southern Regional Climate Center generously supplied computer time to generate the data and compile the statistical analyses used in this study. I am financially grateful to the Louisiana State University Alumni Association for granting me a fellowship and to the Southern Regional Climate Center for granting me a graduate assistantship for seven months. In addition, I would like to thank my supervisors at C-K Associates, Inc., Cindy C. Thompson, Andy S. Goldberg, and Daniel B. Wolf, for allowing me to have time away from my job to complete this dissertation. My thanks go also to Miriam Fearn, Barry D. Keim, and John M. Grymes III, whose friendships have made graduate school much more enjoyable. I owe a great debt to my parents, Emma Jean and Howard Hoff, and to my sister and her husband, Donna and Randy Sittloh, for their support, encouragement, and understanding throughout the long process of completing this dissertation. They have helped me realize a dream come true. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................iii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................viii LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................. ix ABSTRACT .........................................................................................................................xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW ........................... 1 1.0 The 1993 Flood............................................................................ 1 1.1 Study Objectives .............................................................................2 1.2 Historical Overview .................................................................... 5 1.3 Literature Review ............................................................................. 7 1.3.1 Streamflow Variability Studies .................................. 7 1.3.2 Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow .............. 9 1.3.3 Effects of Land-use Changes and River Management on Streamflow........................................... 12 1.3.4 Mississippi River Studies ................................................ 18 1.4 Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment ............................24 1.5 Chapter Sum m ary ................................................................ 26 2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................28 2.0 Chapter Objectives ........................................................................ 28 2.1 Basin Descriptions ........................................................................ 28 2.1.1 The Mississippi Basin at Tarbert Landing ...................30 2.1.2 The Mississippi Basin at Vicksburg ............................33 2.1.3 The Missouri Basin at Hermann .................................33 2.1.4 The Ohio-Tennessee Basin at M etropolis...................34 2.2 Discharge D ata .............................................................................. 34 2.3 Climate Data .................................................................................... 35 2.4 Water Balance Calculations.......................................................... 36 2.5 Statistical Analysis.........................................................................45 2.6 Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis...............................................49 2.6.1 Model Identification........................................................ 52 2.6.2 Estimation of Model Parameters ................................. 58 2.6.3 Diagnostic Checking ..................................................... 59 2.6.4 Forecasting.......................................................................61 2.7 Chapter Summary ............................................................................61 v TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) CHAPTER 3 THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN ...................................................................... 63 3.0 Chapter Objectives .........................................................................63 3.1 Water Balance Results for the Mississippi Basin at Tarbert Landing ........................................................................ 64 3.2 Linear Regression Results for the Mississippi Basin at Tarbert Landing ................. 74 3.3 Box-Jenkins Time Series Models for the Mississippi Basin at Tarbert Landing .............................................................77 3.4 Summary of Findings for the Mississippi Basin at Tarbert Landing .........................................................................83