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The New Jari: Risks and Prospects of a Major Amazonian Development Philip M

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The New Jari: Risks and Prospects of a Major Amazonian Development Philip M THE NEW JARI: RISKS AND PROSPECTS OF A MAJOR AMAZONIAN DEVELOPMENT PHILIP M. FEARNSIDE and JUDY M. RANKIN •J ari", the group of indicating that any suggestion to apply in virtually all aspects of the silviculture three enterprises 1 de­ Jari as a model must be approached with and pulp operations is, and must be, the veloped by shipping extreme caution. The financial crisis at continued supply of wood for pulping magnate D. K. Ludwig, is an estate in Jari leading up to Ludwig's decision to and power generation on a day-to-day Brazil's State of Para and Federal Terri­ sell (Kinkead, 1981) has now focussed basis. tory of Amapa claiming 1,632,121 ha 2 debate in Brazil in the risks and prospects Native timber, originally of land straddling the Jari River, a north­ of J ari itself. burned on the site, is now heavily uti­ ern tributary of the lower Amazon. Sil­ One viewpoint expressed lized 6 as fuel to fire the boilers supply­ viculture, pulp manufacture, ric.e grow­ at recent international meetings (Russell, ing power to the pulp mill, as a com­ ing, mining and logging are among 1981; Alvim, 1981) is that Jari is itself ponent of the pulp produced by the Kraft Jari's main activites. The Jari project is "technically viable", even though political pulp mill on the site, and as construction currently at a major "crossroads" as final and institutional problems might have materials. Plantation monocultures of details are settled for the sale of this been rendering the Ludwig operation three species supplant the native forest: tremendous operation, with control pass­ untenable. Such claims must be examined Gmelina arborea has been planted com­ ing to a consortium of 27 Brazilian closely. The question of Jari's future mercially since 1969, Pinus caribaea var firms led by mining entrepreneur Augus­ course under new management requires hondurensis since 1973, and Eucalyptus to Trajano de Azevedo Antunes (Veja, examination in light of interdependent deglupta since 1979. The silvicultural 16 de dezembro de 1981). Continuing ecological, economic and social factors plantations continue to be managed with­ heavy losses s have been a major factor affecting contemporary developments in out artificial fertilizer inputs to balance in Ludwig's decision to sell the project, Amazonia. The present paper is an at­ nutrient losses due to the harvesting of in which he had invested over US$ 1 tempt to bring new data, garnered from native timber and the plantation species. billion, for the much lower figure of US$ recent site visits 5 and the growing num­ Continued removal of nutrients from the 280 million (US$ 180 million in debts ber of scientific publications on research system in the form of harvested biomass assumed + US$ 100 million payable over performed at J ari, to bear in the analysis will eventually deplete stocks of available three years) 4. of these factors. nutrients to the point where growth is J ari has often been sug­ reduced to uneconomic levels. Company gested as a potential model for develop­ Prospects of Jari's Operations foresters say that a slight decrease in ments throughout the Amazon Basin. Silviculture, Timber and Pulp growth rates has already been noted in While many details of Jari's operations the second cycle of Gmelina. The in­ have changed since we addressed the Plantation silviculture, evitability of a future added cost for question of Jari's applicability as a devel­ native timber extraction and pulp mill fertilizer purchase and application, not opment model for the region (Fearnside operation, are the principal activities at currently being considered in silvicultu­ and Rankin, 1980), the arguments ad­ Jari in terms of capital invested, land, ral calculations, has yet to be faced by vanced in that discussion remain valid, and employment. The controlling factor project managers. Dr. Philip M. Fearnside, an ecologist, received his Ph. D. in Biological Sciences from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan U.S.A. in 1978. He is especially interested in the estimation of carrying capacity for human agricultural populations. His work bas been directed at this problem in the Brazilan Amazon since 1973. He is presently a Research Professor at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA), Caixa Postal 478, 69.000 Manaus Amazonas, Brasil. Dr. Judy M. Rankin, an ecologist, received her Ph.D. in Biological Sciences from the Uni­ versity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S. A. in 1978. Her main interests lie in the dynamics of tropical rain forest communities. She is especially concerned with the demography of tropical rain forest trees and natural regeneration, a process holding great potential for sustained yield forestry under Amazonian conditions. She is presently an Associate Research Professor at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA), Caixa Postal 478, 69.000 Manaus, Amazonas, Brasil. lf\1Ef'IDffiDFI NOV- DEC 1982, VOL. 7 NQ 6 SEPARATA 0378- 1844/82/060329- 11 $ 3.00/0 329 A predictable, sustained of Gmelina at present levels would have kaolin mill ( 4.6%), and the towns of supply of wood is essential to the pulp to be greater than the amounts absorbed Monguba and Monte Dour ado ( 4.6%). mill's functioning and to Jari's existence. by the planted trees, since much of what At present, the boilers consume 1500 kg The cost of down time at the pulp mill is applied is lost to leaching and runoff, wet weight/day of fuelwood chips to is US$ 14,000/hour, meaning that all or, in the case of phosphorus, to fixation supply 80% of the power output, the other operations at the estate must be into unusable compounds in the soil. The other 20% coming from fuel oil (Woess­ coordinated to guarantee that the mill amounts lost vary greatly, depending on ner, 1980a). 9 Assuming that oil con­ never has to stop for lack of wood either soil, rainfall, type of fertilizer, and mode sumption cannot be lowered below 20%, for pulp or fuel. This overriding priority and timing of application. The recovery the amount of wood needed for fuel was the motivating force for the testing efficiencies used in Table I are rules of would be a 37.5% addition to the pulp­ and eventual inclusion of native tree thumb for crops in general. The highly wood need, or a 28.7% addition for only species in Gmelina pulp when early leached soils and high rainfall char­ the portion of the power output used by Gmelina production was found to be acteristic of the Amazon could mean the mill itself. insufficient to meet pulp mill demands. that recovery would be lower at The costs of fertilization The urgency of feeding the mill also led, Jari. Phosphorus fixation rates (in 6 per hectare must be converted to costs in 1981, to some of the Pinus caribaea hours at 100 ppm P) range from 26.8 per metric ton of pulp produced, since plantations with spacings intended for to 51.6% in representative soils of the this is the unit in which the added ex­ 16-year saw log rotations being cut for Brazilian Amazon (Fassbender, 1969). pense of fuelwood plantations, among pulpwood, while others were converted These rates are not high by the standards other factors, becomes apparent, and is to faster growing Eucalyptus deglupta of many tropical latosols, but more phos­ also the unit closest to the market prices (C. E. Russell, personal communication, phorus is lost to fixation at low (and ultimately determining the profitability October 1981). Plantations can be of three types: pulpwood, solid wood, and fuelwood. Costs of producing seedlings and establishing plantations are similar In silvicultural operations generally, many potential management remedies for the three types, but the values of the are not solvable at acceptable costs through traditional three products are very different, solid wood being much more valuable than agricultural remedies such as chemical treatments. pulpwood, which is more valuable than fuel wood. In the U.S., wood in the form of lumber has a value 3. 6 times that of wood in the form of fuel (Pimentel et al., 1981: 334). The need to keep the mill more probable) fertilizer application of fertilizing to achieve a sustainable supplied at all times means that oppor­ rates. In terra roxa (ALFISOL) in Al­ nutrient balance. The US$ 142,47 /ha/ tunities to produce more valuable pro­ tamira, Para, the same soil type as Jari's year cost of purchasing and applying ducts must be sacrificed to plant pulp­ best Gmelina-growing soils, up to 83% fertilizers to pulp plantations would co­ wood, and in the future firewood, plan­ of P applied is fixed in 7 days at low rrespond to US$ 9.87 I metric ton dry tations. Losses of potential income from (53 ppm P) application rates (Dynia wood produced at the 38 m3 /ha/year this situation will become more acute et al., 1977). maximum yield level (Woessner, 1980a) when native forest is exhausted. To the cost of purchas­ and the 0.38 g/ cm3 wood density It is then critical to ing fertilizers one must add the cost of (Woessner, 1980b). The cost would be know how much plantation, at present application. Information is not available US$ 3.79/metric ton of wet wood chips, levels of productivity, is needed to supply on the amount of labor required to since Gmelina,, green wood weight is ap­ the pulp mill, and the prospects for the fertilize Gmelina plantations, but an idea proximately 260% of dry wood weight, sustainability of such productivity. Plan­ can be gained from labor requirements according to company technical staff.
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