Review of the Department of Energy's Inertial Confinement Fusion
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Review of the Department of Energy’s Inertial Confinement Fusion Program Final Report Second Review of the Department of Energy’s Inertial Confinement Fusion Program Final Report Committee for a Second Review of the Department of Energy’s Inertial Confinement Fusion Program Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 204 18 Work Performed under Contract DE-AC0 I -89DP20 154 with the Department of Energy NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 204 18 September 1990 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work related to Department of Energy Contract DE-AC0 1 -89DP20 154 issued by the Department of Energy. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of Energy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2 10 1 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 204 18 Printed in the United States of America . ICF Review 111 Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications Norman Hackerman, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman Peter J. Bickel, University of California at Berkeley George F. Carrier, Harvard University Herbert D. Doan, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) Dean E. Eastman, IBM, T.J. Watson Research Center Marye Anne Fox, University of Texas Phillip A. Griffiths, Duke University Neal F. Lane, Rice University Robert W. Lucky, AT&T Bell Laboratories Christopher F. McKee, University of California at Berkeley Richard S. Nicholson, American Association for the Advancement of Science Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory Alan Schriesheim, Argonne National Laboratory Roy F. Schwitters, Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory Kenneth G. Wilson, Ohio State University Staff Norman Metzger, Executive Director iv ICF Review Committee for a Review of the Department of Energy’s Inertial Confinement Fusion Program Steven E. Koonin, California Institute of Technology, Chairman George F. Carrier, Harvard University Robert F. Christy, California Institute of Technology Robert W. Conn, University of California, Los Angeles Ronald C. Davidson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology John M. Dawson, University of California, Los Angeles Anthony J. DeMaria, United Technologies Corporation Research Center Paul M. Doty, Harvard University William Happer, Jr., Princeton University Gerald L. Kulcinski, University of Wisconsin Conrad L. Longmire, Mission Research Corporation James R. Powell, Jr., Brookhaven National Laboratory Marshall N. Rosenbluth, University of California, San Diego Jack P. Ruina, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Robert L. Sproull, University of Rochester Maury Tigner, Cornell University Richard L. Wagner, Kaman Diversified Technologies Corporation DoE Liaison Representatives David N. Bixler, Inertial Fusion Division Sheldon L. Kahalas, Office of Research and Advanced Technology Marshall Sluyter, Inertial Fusion Division Consultants Sidney G. Reed, Rockville, Maryland James G. Wilson, Arlington, Virginia Staff Officer Lee M. Hunt, National Research Council ICF Review V PREFACE The Department of Energy National Security and Military Applications of Nuclear Energy Authorization Act of 1985 directed the President to establish a “technical review group to review thoroughly the accomplishments, management, goals, and anticipated contributions of the defense inertial confinement program.” The congressional language called for an interim report by June 1, 1985, and a final report by May I, 1986. The more detailed terms of reference for the study were as follows: The Technical Review Group will review the accomplishments, management, goals, and anticipated contributions of the Defense Inertial Confinement Fusion Program. The Technical Review Group shall consist of individuals who are highly qualified in scientific disciplines associated with the development and testing of nuclear weapons. The Technical Review Group will review all major areas of the inertial fusion program. The Technical Review Group shall prioritize activities within the present and future [Inertial Confinement Fusion] ICF Program and present an appropriate time scale for attaining the program goals. In his letter of December 20, 1984, the President’s Science Advisor called on the National Academy of Sciences to carry out the directed review. In response, the Academy established the Committee for a Review of the Department of Energy’s Inertial Confinement Fusion Program under the chairmanship of Dr. William Happer, Jr., of Princeton University. The committee, made up of ten carefully chosen scientists, conducted its review during 1985 and issued its final report in March 1986. Prominent among the several findings of that review were the following. It is important to recognize that the present state of knowledge does not permit a narrow focusing of the ICF Program. At the same time, budget limitations require a prioritization of activities. We believe that approximately five years at current budget levels is required to resolve critical technical issues of ICF feasibility. The Committee unanimously recommends that the budget should be stable during this five-year period and at a level adequate to achieve the highest priority objectives, which, we believe, is approximately at the current level ($155 million/year). In considering the findings contained in this report, it is important to remember that the five- year research and development period set by the Happer, committee will not end until March 1991, and that the ICF Program has not been level-funded during the 1986-1989 period. Further, congressional interest in a second review three years after the Happer, report was undoubtedly stimulated by very positive research results obtained during the interval and by growing interest within the ICF community in selecting and building a driver at the next energy plateau. The present review of the ICF program resulted from language contained in the FY89 authorization and appropriating bills that directed the Secretary of Energy to commission an independent review, the interim report of which to be due by January 15, 1990,