Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Ethiopia PRE BELG/SUGUM 2015 JOINT ASSESSMENT REPORT IN ZONE 1,3 AND 5 WOREDAS OF AFAR REGION Objectives The objective of the joint Pre Belg/Sugum assessment is to evaluate the performance of the Belg/Sugum 2015 rain in all Zone 1, 3, and 5 woredas of of Afar region and its impact on food security. Methodology Group focussed discussions were made with Wereda Administrations and appropriate line bureaus in all Weredas visited to collect secondary information related to rainfall, pasture conditions, condition of livestock, crop production, availability of water and existing challenges; the status of food distribution (both on PSNP and relief food) and the impediments encountered during distribution, the nutritional status of children, pregnant and lactating mothers in relation to the EOS screening and the progress of implementation of the TSF programme; the progress of implementation of WFP school feeding programme and its impact on the level of class attendance in comparison to the previous years. Executive Summary The Belg/Sugum 2015 rain was delayed onset for 5 weeks and below average with uneven distribution. As a consequence, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists have suffered from shortages of livestock feed and water causing migration to areas in Amhara and areas of the region with better pasture and water. The movement of people and migration of livestock were heavy in Zone 1 and 3. The body condition of livestock in all visited woreda was highly deteriorated. The impact was more serious with sheep and cattle. No significant livestock disease of emergency epidemic nature was reported in the all woredas in the zones as a whole. In terms of crop production, farm lands were damaged by flood in areas such as Gewane, Amibar and Gelalo and by lack of enough moisture in areas such as Argoba Special in Zone 3. Concerning market situation, livestock market supply increased and the prices were decreased in comparison to the previous year. However, the price of major stable foods mainly maize increased making the TOT not favorable to pastoral communities in the area. People with serious food shortages have been assessed with food under relief and PSNP programme. Concerning relief, some 108,041 persons have benefited while about 232,062 persons were assisted under the PSNP. Although delays were observed in the allocation of food, inland dispatch and distribution mainly for those beneficiaries under relief operations, it is suggested that future allocations and inland dispatch be enhanced as much as possible to avoid malnutrition among the affected population. Weather/Rainfall It is a fact that karma and sugum seasons are the main and short rain seasons for Afar region where pastoralists has been received rain which has significant impact/change on their livelihood activities as well as individual lifestyle practices. Likewise, Dadqa season also proffer little but critical shower rain that enable to transit the pastoralists from karma season to sugum season without problems associated with absence of rain. In normal time, Sugum rain is start at the second decade of February and it extend up to the first decade of May in Afar region. According to community elders and local government officials in Zone 1, 3, and 5 woredas the Sugum 2015 rain was delayed onset for almost 5 weeks and with poor performance. There was no rain received in Elidaar, Kori, Mille, Gawain and Telalke Weredas. The situation will be worsen if the Belg/Sugum rain does not continue on the near further. The situation in all visited woredas is also similar with serious challenges foreseen in the event that the onset of the next Karma rain expected in July is delayed. Fig1. Afar region cumulative rainfall (February- April) (the graph from FEWSNET mid-sugum performance review) AFAR REGION CUMMULATIVE RAINFALL FROM FEB. - APRIL 2 0 1 5 (MM) 100 Mean 2014 2015 80 60 40 20 0 Feb Mar Apr Livestock and Pasture Condition In Zone 1, sheep, goat and camels are more important in Elidaar and Kori while cattle are also important in Mille. However, the trend in livestock herd in all the visited areas shows a decrease for all species due to frequent drought The recent Sugum rain was poor in Zone 1 and Zone 3 which has resulted in poor pasture and shortage of water. The problem is critical in Elidaar, Kori and Milla Weredas of Zone 1 and Gewane woreda in zone 3. The combined effect of shortages in pasture and water is the poor body condition which is evident in most areas visited. The above shortages of pasture and water have forced many pastoralist families to migrate to other parts of Afar region and neighboring regions of Amhara and Oromia in search of resources. The degree of migration was normal except in limited areas where the movements are found out to be abnormal owing to the severity of resources shortage (Pasture & water). Areas with significant out flux of livestock population in include movements from Mille Wereda of Zone 1 to localities in Asaita Wereda of Afar region along the Awash River. In Elidaar migration was reported to Djibouti in Zone 3 and Zone 5 heavy migration was reported to potential areas in Amhara region such as Kemisse and Cheffa localities however the availability of pasture and water were similar. The livestock may not return unless pastoralists confirm positive changes that may occur after the next Karma rainy season. Regarding livestock productivity, the situation varies from one area to another depending on the availability of pasture and water for livestock. There is substantial decrease in the availability of milk in local markets. For instance, in Elidaar and Kori in Zone 1, there is no milk in the market and household level due to water shortage. As a consequence of drought, there were no animals’ disease outbreaks occurred and seen in the assessment areas. However in some woreda there was high number of deaths of shoats and cattle but not related to outbreaks. Even if some woreda had done prophylaxis (massive treatment) program for their livestock, the available veterinary drugs were not sufficient and hence Mille woreda (Adayetu kebele), Amibara woreda (Qurequra kebele) and Gewane woreda (Undefeo kebele) need additional veterinary drugs interventions. Water condition The poor performance of the 2014 Karma and the absence of Dadda rains plus the delayed onset and poor performance of Belg/Sugume 2015 rain in most parts of the visited woredas in the region is having a negative impact on the availability of water. The water sources like Rivers, ponds and Elas are drying up. Water shortage is already becoming critical for both people and livestock in Kori, Elida’ar , Milla (Adayto kebel), Gewane (Undufo kebele), Amibara (Gedamito kebele) and Serdo and Sekoyta Kebeles of Dubti Woreda. (See the water Response matrix) Additional one water truck is needed in Elidaar woreda, where the sugum rain almost failed. During drought time schools are one of the risk points for public health emergency. Three schools in Elidaar woreda (one regular and two AB) have been closed due to water shortage. In all three schools a total of 150 students registered at the begging and in all visited woredas the school drop-out rate have been increased time to time. Market Condition Market condition is potential early warning and food security indicators especially for those who practice pastoral livelihood activity which is their daily food consumption was depend on the price of crop and their livestock on market. At this time, the price of animals in all visited woredas i.e Elidaar, Kori, Millie, Geawne, Amibera and Awash Fentale has been reducing from time to time due to reduction animal’s body condition and massive supply of animals on market result from shortage pasture and water; it is a consequence of absence of Dadqa and Sugum rain. On the other hand, crop price has been raising in the visited woredas in line with increasing demand of crop to cover the gap relating to output reduction from their livestock due to lack of pasture and water. ToT value of Awash Fen. market centre 800 3.5 3 600 2.5 2 50 Kg wheat 400 1.5 goat (midum) 200 1 0.5 TOT 0 0 The crop price rising problem is very serious in the new added Adayitu, Endafo and Gedamayitu kebeles to Millie, Gewane and Amibera woredas respectively due to absence of emergency/relief food so as they try gain their food consumption from market. In general, according to the ToT value (the price of one medium goat divided by price of 50 kg wheat) the pastoralist could not able to purchase 50 kg wheat by selling one mid goat, this indicates that pastoralists are found unfavorable situation. Health and Nutrition Recurrent drought has caused serious food insecurity at the household level which in turn contributed to increased cases of malnutrition in children under five, pregnant and lactating women. Depletion of household livestock holdings, increase in market price of cereals and low terms of trade due to poor body condition of the livestock have aggravated the problem. Restrictions in local capacity to provide adequate health services and limited awareness of the community on nutrition may favor the problem. Except for those woredas being supported by NGOs, availability of quality data has been a major challenge to determine the actual situation. Though data from the visited woredas shows increasing trends since the last Dadaa short rainy season (see the table below), standard nutrition survey needs to be done to understand the actual situation and associated underlining causes at the grassroots level. 86, 78,110 and 95 new SAM admissions were reported per month per woreda in Gewane, Amibara and Buremedaytu/ Gelalao and Telalak respectively.